Friar for a Day

A friend who is a Providence alum was kind enough to invite me along to see the Friars-Johnnies game today. This was not a jump into the Garden, but rather a trek out to the Louie Carnesecca Arena on the Queens campus (an "old style" wooden bleecher gym-type facility that seats about 6,500). After trailing by 5 to finish the first half the Friars put on a furious rally to go up by 7 with about 6 minutes to go. Unfortunately they could not maintain the momentum, and dropped a heart breaking 64-62 decision. Jeff Xavier hit about 5 3's while Geoff McDermott and Randall Hanke handled the Johnnies inside.

After the game I commiserated with the Friar faithful at a reception nearby. Though dealing with the disappointment of the recent loss they showed this Wildcat a very good time, wit and humor matched by consideration and hospitality in a way that reminded me of the family atmosphere at Villanova.

Thank you and best of luck the rest of the way...except for March 8.

Efficiency Stats at the Big East Midpoint

I thought I would put together some efficiency stats for the Wildcats through the first half of the Big East season. These stats are for the nine Big East games they have played through 02/08/08.

Player	Min%	eFG%	PPWS	OReb%	DReb%
Dwayne Anderson	38.6	45.8	0.96	8.9	18.2
Shane Clark	48.6	28.0	0.68	8.9	12.3
Dante Cunningham	73.1	54.7	1.14	9.9	14.5
Casiem Drummond	8.1	66.7	1.37	10.7	4.4
Corey Fisher	57.2	45.6	0.99	2.5	6.8
Malcolm Grant	35.6	50.0	1.12	1.6	6.9
Antonio Pena	60.8	52.3	1.14	9.9	19.1
Reggie Redding	52.5	36.9	0.85	3.3	8.7
Scottie Reynolds	84.2	49.6	1.08	2.4	7.9
Corey Stokes	40.6	40.8	0.83	3.6	14.8

[Note - Jason Colenda & Frank Tchuisi are not shown as they have logged no hours in Big East games. Andy Ott transferred to PSU 2 weeks ago]
eFG% works to "meld" 2 and 3 point shots into a single stat by converting 3FGMs into their equivalent 2FGMs percentages. Since the stat already appropriately weights the field goal made, it gives me an indication of how accurate a shooter the player would be if he took all of his FGAs as 2 point attempts. Note that someone like Dante Cunningham, who only shoots 2s, has an eFG% that is the same as his FGM stat.
PPWS prorates the points scored based on the number of field goal attempts and free throw attempts the player has taken. It answers the questions "How many points (on average...) are scored when the player gets off a shot"? It is John Hollinger's True Shot stat, modified for the college game.
OReb% is a measure of the percentage of offensive rebounds the player gets when he is in the game. This can be especially effective at identifying good rebounders who do not necessarily get much playing time. Offensive rebounds are generally considered more difficult to get than defensive rebounds. I don't have current "average" numbers for the Big East/D1, but from Pomeroy (and prior season's work...), think of anyone who gets >10.0 as excellent, and anyone in the 8.0-9.9 range as very good.
DReb% is the same stat, but for defensive rebounds. Per Pomeroy (and again my own stats...) 20.0 is excellent, and anything >15.0 or so is very good.

Unhappily the stats were much better 2 weeks ago, the slump is clearly reflected in this latest snapshot. Ideally a team's first and second option on offense would have a PPWS above 1.10 for example. Second, third (and later) scoring options will sometimes have (much...) higher PPWS's, largely because they take "role player" status in the offense. Where the player has not logged much time (see Drum for example) the stats should be taken with a grain of salt. Logging more time (generally > 40.0% of the time at the position) will give the player enough opportunities to reduce the effects of unusually good (and unusually bad) games. A few observations:

1. I was surprised that Scottie's PPWS had slipped so much. He had a PPWS of 1.15 going into the Big East season, and while his season-long PPWS is still around 1.12, clearly the team's inconsistent scoring is reflected in this number. Both he and Fisher serve as the #1/#2 options on offense. Both appear to be struggling, though Fisher, with a PPWS of 0.99, is clearly having a bit more trouble. Both players take > 25.0% of the shots (and possessions) when they are on the court. They are struggling on offense, and that is having an effect on the overall efficiency of the team.

2. Casiem posted very good rebounding numbers before his injury. I was not surprised by his OReb%. It was higher before his injury and will most likely stay in that range even as he works himself back into the rotation. I was shocked by the DReb% number, and have no idea why it would be that low as it too was very strong before his injury. His Big East playing time is, however, so low at this point that drawing any conclusions based on this data, would be very premature. He is with respect to the OReb%, headed in the right direction.

3. The rebounding and shooting numbers I see for Pena make me optimistic for his longer range prospects. They suggest he can assume a larger role with the team, both on the boards and, depending on his Shot% and Poss%, possibly with the offense as well.

4. Stoke's DReb% surprised me. I did not think he was especially good under the boards, at least not as good as the stat suggests. He is not great, but he might need something to persuade the staff to play him through his slump. Having a few skills beyond shooting would be helpful.

Post Game: St. Joseph's(PA) -- The Hits Keep Coming...

Let's Go Nova's analysis of the St. Joseph's(PA) game, "Implosion", triggered a lively set of exchanges in his comments section. Get over and join in if you have time. As for the rest of the Villanova blogshere, the rage vented post game in the earlier losses is largely expended. After a heartfelt plea to beat the Joes posted on Monday morning, the I Bleed Blue and White Blog, in an episode of psychic disconnect possibly, posted a quick Syracuse game eyewitness report early Tuesday evening. And then went quiet. Hmmm...someone might want to check the dorms and see if those guys are ok. DRE Hoops Blog posted a very long (for the web) essay on his thoughts about the team's 5 game slump. Like the rest of the Nova Nation, he was stunned by the scope and degree of the losses (5 in a row, double digit losses each, quality of the competition) and has begun, as have many other fans, to consider thoughtfully (and without anger) what has gone wrong and why. I appreciate the effort he put into his essay, and hope that the problems, as he suggests, are correctable over time. I just don't know if lack of leadership can explain how a team with three elite point guards can lose 33% of it's possessions in a single half (see below). The breakdown by halves...

Opponent	St. Joseph's(PA)
	1st	2nd	Total
Pace	33.2	27.3	60.5
	Offense				Defense
	1st	2nd	Total		1st	2nd	Total
Rating	78.0	104.3	90.0		136.3	119.2	128.6
eFG%	42.3	48.0	45.1		68.2	54.0	60.6
TORate	33.0	21.6	27.8		18.2	18.6	18.4
OR%	38.9	43.8	41.2		33.3	42.9	38.5
FTRate	26.9	32.0	29.4		86.4	24.0	53.2
FTMRate	15.4	20.0	17.6		68.2	20.0	42.6
ARate	30.0	36.4	33.3		66.7	54.5	60.9
Blk%	19.2	12.0	15.7		9.1	4.0	6.4
Stl%	18.0	0.0	9.8		9.1	7.4	8.4

The first half/second half adjustment is clearly in the stats, but like the Rutgers and Syracuse games, it is too little too late. As with the Syracuse game, it is clear the team did not push the pace in the second half. Catching up is difficult when the number of opportunities is (relatively) smaller from half-to-half. I was a little surprised the 'Cats could not, Cunningham aside, do a better job on the offensive boards right from the beginning. While breaking down the first half gamelog I noticed that Drummond and Cunningham had between them, 2, maybe 3 putbacks. The team however had eleven possession-ending missed field goal attempts. Dante did secure 5 offensive boards for the entire game, and (not coincidentally?) shot 6-8 from the field. That was, by far, the best offensive showing among the 'Cats (eFG 75.0, PPWS 1.50). The Hawks shut both Fisher and Reynolds down as their numbers (eFG% -- 28.6 & 37.5; PPWS -- 0.57 & 0.86, respectively) demonstrate clearly. In addition, Scottie had 3 turnovers while Fisher had 5.

Odds and Ends...
1. Malcolm Grants "official" line was 0:52 in the first half. For the plus/minus conscious, he was -5 over 2 appearances.
2. Dwayne Anderson was (for the first half) the best plus/minus player, who over 8:08 minutes of play (3 separate appearances) was -3.

Post Game: Syracuse -- And Again...

I broke down the gamelog for the first half and a it seemed as if the story of this team fell out in 10 minute intervals. For the first ten minutes the Wildcats' ORtg% was a very strong 147.4 -- 28 points on 19 possessions. The starting lineup was Fisher, Reynolds, Redding, Pena and Cunningham, and, at the 10:05 mark, included Fisher, Grant, Redding, Stokes and Cunningham. The rotation also had Drummond in for (about) 6:12. The defense was not terrific, but certainly the best stretch for this particular game -- 100.0, as Syracuse scored 18 points in 18 possessions. The last ten minutes brought a rather stunning reversal as Villanova's ORtg% imploded to 57.9 (11 points on 19 possessions) even as the defense collapsed to 130.0 (26 points on 20 possessions). The pace in the table below is, therefore a bit inflated (at least for the first half), as my handcount indicated each team had 38 possessions, not 39.7 as calculated. In any event, the breakdown by halves...

Opponent	Syracuse
	1st	2nd	Total
Pace	39.8	32.8	72.5
	Offense				Defense
	1st	2nd	Total		1st	2nd	Total
Rating	97.9	104.0	100.6		110.0	130.8	120.0
eFG%	58.6	43.1	50.9		68.0	69.4	68.6
TORate	25.1	9.2	17.9		27.7	21.3	24.8
OR%	15.4	23.8	20.6		27.3	36.4	31.8
FTA/FGA	20.7	41.4	31.0		56.0	138.9	90.7
FTM/FGA	17.2	31.0	24.1		40.0	100.0	65.1
ARate	81.3	70.0	76.9		40.0	66.7	51.9
Blk%	10.3	3.4	6.9		8.0	0.0	4.7
Stl%	20.1	6.1	13.8		22.7	9.1	16.5

The second half was strange for several reasons...
1. The change in pace was very noticible (statistically speaking). The team that is behind at the half should, logically, increase the tempo to force more possessions and thereby make up the scoring deficit. Given the opponent was Syracuse, notorious for their short bench, the incentive should have been even greater, yet the pace decreased by (using the calculated numbers...) by nearly 20%.
2. In previous games, even those losses, Villanova was able to show dramatic improvement in either offense or defense (or both) from one half to another. Their improvement on offense (97.9 to 104.0), powered by better ball handling (note the reduction in TORate) and improved offensive rebounding (note their OR%) was undermined by inaccurate field goal shooting (note the reduction in eFG%). Irrespective of their offense, the defensive collapse was not to be overcome. Note that Syracuse shot about the same from half to half (68% is a lethal level of offense), so their improved ORtg% was fueled by improvement in other areas, TORate, OR% and mostly (depressingly, again) via FTRate, which, for the third time in the past four games, Villanova's opponents' second half FTAs exceeded their FGAs. For the Orange this represented a difference of 25 to 18.

Odds and Ends...
1. Casiem Drummond had a very good game. He scored 11 points in 19 minutes, but more importantly his were very efficient 11 points. His PPWS for the game was 1.47, very encouraging for the frontcourt.
2. The offense flowed through Drummond (mentioned above...), Fisher and Reynolds. Each took >25% of the shots when they were on the court. For Drummond (and the team), this is very good news as it suggests offense will come from somewhere other than the backcourt. Fisher posted an eFG% of 63.3 with a PPWS of 1.32 as he took 31.3% of the shots, while Reynolds' numbers were 50.0 (eFG%) and 1.10 (PPWS), while taking 27.6% of the shots.
3. Efficiency numbers for the front court were promising, as Cunningham and Pena also posted relatively efficient scoring numbers. Their shooting did not contribute more significantly to the score because they were marginalized within the offense. Dante took 10.8% of the shots while he was in the game while Pena took 9.9% of the shots.

Vinny Pezzimenti Moment: Week 12

Villanova's slide continued last week with two more losses posted against their record. The first, a road loss at Pittsburgh is not especially surprising with how the team has played on the road this Big East season (a lacklustre 1-4), but the home loss to Syracuse was disappointing given they had beaten the Orange on the road early last month and jumped out to a 10 point lead to start the game. Starting slow and having to play from behind has been a marker for the recent problems, so Saturday seemed (at least at the 10:00 minute mark of the first half) to be the day when they would stop the bleeding. Not so apparently...

My Big East Blogger Poll for this week:

1 - Georgetown
2 - Notre Dame
3 - Louisville
4 - Connecticut
5 - Marquette
6 - Pittsburgh
7 - West Virginia
8 - Seton Hall
9 - Syracuse
10 - Cincinnati
11 - Villanova
12 - DePaul
13 - Providence
14 - Rutgers
15 - St. John's
16 - South Florida

Player of the Week: AJ Price, Connecticut

Rookie of the Week: Dominique Jones, South Florida

Who's Up...Who's Down...
Georgetown extends their streak atop the Big East. Connecticut and Louisville move up on the strength of their wins, while Providence and South Florida (and Villanova...) are heading down (they keep losing).

This week's OWs...
AJ Price of Connecticut is my POW. AJ turned in two very good games against Louisville (20 points on 8-17 shooting, good for an eFG of 52.9 for the game) and then against Pittsburgh last weekend (21 points on 6-12 shooting, eFG of 54.2) Even though the South Florida Bulls lost twice last week Dominique Jones continues to tear up the court. Dominique turned in a 15 point performance in the Bull's loss to Marquette, and then 24 in their loss to St. John's last weekend.

Post Game: Pittsburgh -- Ground Hog Day... Again

This young 'Cat squad is 1-4 on the road now. In truth winning at Pittsburgh, even with a fully functional, experienced team, would have been a stretch. The Let's Go Nova Blog carries a full recap and a searching review Malcolm Grants's role to date in his entry "Grant rides pine as 'Nova drops 3rd straight". The 3 game slide has been a source of frusturation for many Villanova fans, not to mention the flash point for quite a few message board rants. So what happened this time?...

Opponent	Pittsburgh
	1st	2nd	Total
Pace	34.8	32.4	67.2
	Offense				Defense
	1st	2nd	Total		1st	2nd	Total
Rating	66.9	102.0	84.2		82.4	127.2	103.6
eFG%	27.9	53.4	39.7		38.5	59.5	47.9
TORate	17.5	24.0	20.7		34.1	19.1	27.0
OR%	30.8	41.2	34.9		52.9	40.0	46.9
FTA/FGA	14.7	24.1	19.0		50.0	104.8	74.5
FTM/FGA	11.8	10.3	11.1		34.6	71.4	51.1
ARate	33.3	50.0	43.5		77.8	72.7	75.0
Blk%	11.8	13.8	12.7		11.5	0.0	6.4
Stl%	8.7	3.0	5.9		11.4	12.7	12.0

While a few of the details are different, the trend still holds -- the Wildcats go down early and spend a good part of the game trying to get back into it. Note Villanova's Rating (that's the Wildcat's offense) of 66.9 for the first half. That is excruciatingly inefficient. Had the Panthers own Rating been better than 82.4, Villanova would have been in a hole considerably deeper than 10 points going into the lockroom. In fact that 82.4 as a defensive rating would be very good. The Panthers shot poorly (eFG% was 38.5) and turned the ball over an appalling amount of times (TORate was 34.1). So why wasn't the score closer? Pittsburgh compensated by getting to the free throw line even in the first half (note their FTA/FGA was 50.0) and they did a good job of rebounding their misses (OR% was 52.9). As with previous efforts, the 'Cats improved in the second half. Unfortunately Pittsburgh had adjustments of their own, and like the Irish last weekend, they were able to improve on their first half numbers (and beat Villanova over both halves...). This is one of several recurring stats over the past few games. Note that Pitt lived at the line, their FTA/FGA in the second half was 104.8, suggesting they had more free throws than field goal attempts. As before, the stat is inflated slightly because of late game fouling, but the trend for the half was in place before the last 3 minutes. Hopefully the 'Cats will start faster against the Orange on Saturday.

Odd and Ends...
Antonio Pena scored his first double-double of the season when he grabbed 10 rebounds to go with his 10 points. Though his scoring was not especially efficient (his PPWS for the game was 0.63, well below 1.00 that serves as a baseline for efficient scoring & his eFG% was a 26.7 -- baseline for eFG is about 50.0...). Since starting the past 5 games he has put together 3 strong performances and had only one relatively poor outing (Rutgers). His progress may be one of the silver linings of this period.
Casiem Drummond -- appeared for 7 minutes. Maybe this will mark the beginning of the road back for Cas.
Dwayne Anderson -- played a season high 23 minutes.

Guest Preview: Syracuse

The blogger over at Cuseadelphia and I decided to "exchange" previews. I gave him a look at the Wildcats, and he was kind enough to share this look at Syracuse with me. Enjoy.

Meet the Orange:

* Point Guard Jonny Flynn is a freshman averaging 15 points a game and 5 assists. Flynn started to step up after the Devendorf injury, but his scoring pace has slowed. He’s got 18 points in his last two games combined after scoring 20+ three straight games.

* Shooting Guard Scoop Jardine was filling in for Eric Devendorf. He’s been suspended for his role in a stolen food card scandal.

* Small Forward Paul Harris is a sophomore and an absolute monster on the glass. Harris is only about 6’4’’ but averages 8.9 rebounds a game. He’s a ferocious competitor and the best all around player on the team. He admitted he quit on the team during the Villanova game, but all has been forgiven and has played great since. Harris might be under the weather still come Saturday. He played with the flu Wednesday at Depaul.

* Power Forward Donte’ Greene is a freshman and the best scorer on this team since Carmelo Anthony. He’ll hit shots from anywhere on the court. He leads the team in scoring at 18.4 per. A little more consistency from Greene and he could put up 25+ a game. Greene can get trigger happy which will lead to a lot of bad shots.

* Center Arinze Onuaku (basic pronunciation: A-rinse-a On-ew-ak-ew) is a redshirt sophomore who has great low post moves, but isn’t a great defender and an okay rebounder. Onuaku is coming off a monster game at DePaul. He hit 10 of 13 shots for 22 points. Onuaku is 10th in the country in effective field goal percentage and first in the Big East.

* Kristof Ongenaet (On-ge-net) is a Belgian JUCO transfer. He’ll be the guy on the floor diving for the ball with the funny hair. He’s a great rebounder, but not much of a scorer. He’s shown a great reverse layup.

* Off the bench Syracuse plays just one player: Freshman PF Rick Jackson who has a knack for blocking shots and a nice lefty baby hook. Walk on Justin Thomas might see two minutes off the bench, but barring disaster, Syracuse will only play six players.

What Syracuse Does Best:

* Syracuse used to push the ball, but without depth they’ve slowed things down.

* The slower tempo has hurt the offense. Their efficiency has dropped from about 20th to 47th, but their defense has been much better. Syracuse was around 100th all year, but quickly has moved up to 51st in defensive efficiency.

* S.U. is 17th in the country in two point field goal percentage at 54.3%. On a good night this team won’t take more than 10 three pointers unless Donte’ Greene gets hot early.

* The Orange also pounds the offensive glass as they are 14th in the country in rebounding their misses, collecting 40% of the rebounds on offense.

How to Beat Syracuse:

* Shoot threes and lots of them. The 2-3 zone is susceptible to the three point shot, something Villanova should be able to do with their guard heavy lineup.

* Speed the tempo up. ‘Nova won the first game when the tempo sped up. Syracuse has no depth and will become tired after awhile.

* Double team Arinze Onuaku down low. Cincinnati was the first team to do it and they beat Syracuse beat them pretty easily.

* Get them in foul trouble. With just six players, Syracuse is in big time trouble if multiple players pick up cheap fouls. Villanova got S.U. in foul trouble early and it killed Syracuse late. During the Orange’s two game winning streak, the team managed to stay out of foul trouble and the best players could stay out on the court.