Friday, February 8, 2008

Efficiency Stats at the Big East Midpoint

I thought I would put together some efficiency stats for the Wildcats through the first half of the Big East season. These stats are for the nine Big East games they have played through 02/08/08.

Dwayne Anderson38.645.80.968.918.2
Shane Clark48.628.00.688.912.3
Dante Cunningham73.
Casiem Drummond8.166.71.3710.74.4
Corey Fisher57.245.60.992.56.8
Malcolm Grant35.650.
Antonio Pena60.852.31.149.919.1
Reggie Redding52.536.90.853.38.7
Scottie Reynolds84.
Corey Stokes40.640.80.833.614.8

[Note - Jason Colenda & Frank Tchuisi are not shown as they have logged no hours in Big East games. Andy Ott transferred to PSU 2 weeks ago]
eFG% works to "meld" 2 and 3 point shots into a single stat by converting 3FGMs into their equivalent 2FGMs percentages. Since the stat already appropriately weights the field goal made, it gives me an indication of how accurate a shooter the player would be if he took all of his FGAs as 2 point attempts. Note that someone like Dante Cunningham, who only shoots 2s, has an eFG% that is the same as his FGM stat.
PPWS prorates the points scored based on the number of field goal attempts and free throw attempts the player has taken. It answers the questions "How many points (on average...) are scored when the player gets off a shot"? It is John Hollinger's True Shot stat, modified for the college game.
OReb% is a measure of the percentage of offensive rebounds the player gets when he is in the game. This can be especially effective at identifying good rebounders who do not necessarily get much playing time. Offensive rebounds are generally considered more difficult to get than defensive rebounds. I don't have current "average" numbers for the Big East/D1, but from Pomeroy (and prior season's work...), think of anyone who gets >10.0 as excellent, and anyone in the 8.0-9.9 range as very good.
DReb% is the same stat, but for defensive rebounds. Per Pomeroy (and again my own stats...) 20.0 is excellent, and anything >15.0 or so is very good.

Unhappily the stats were much better 2 weeks ago, the slump is clearly reflected in this latest snapshot. Ideally a team's first and second option on offense would have a PPWS above 1.10 for example. Second, third (and later) scoring options will sometimes have (much...) higher PPWS's, largely because they take "role player" status in the offense. Where the player has not logged much time (see Drum for example) the stats should be taken with a grain of salt. Logging more time (generally > 40.0% of the time at the position) will give the player enough opportunities to reduce the effects of unusually good (and unusually bad) games. A few observations:

1. I was surprised that Scottie's PPWS had slipped so much. He had a PPWS of 1.15 going into the Big East season, and while his season-long PPWS is still around 1.12, clearly the team's inconsistent scoring is reflected in this number. Both he and Fisher serve as the #1/#2 options on offense. Both appear to be struggling, though Fisher, with a PPWS of 0.99, is clearly having a bit more trouble. Both players take > 25.0% of the shots (and possessions) when they are on the court. They are struggling on offense, and that is having an effect on the overall efficiency of the team.

2. Casiem posted very good rebounding numbers before his injury. I was not surprised by his OReb%. It was higher before his injury and will most likely stay in that range even as he works himself back into the rotation. I was shocked by the DReb% number, and have no idea why it would be that low as it too was very strong before his injury. His Big East playing time is, however, so low at this point that drawing any conclusions based on this data, would be very premature. He is with respect to the OReb%, headed in the right direction.

3. The rebounding and shooting numbers I see for Pena make me optimistic for his longer range prospects. They suggest he can assume a larger role with the team, both on the boards and, depending on his Shot% and Poss%, possibly with the offense as well.

4. Stoke's DReb% surprised me. I did not think he was especially good under the boards, at least not as good as the stat suggests. He is not great, but he might need something to persuade the staff to play him through his slump. Having a few skills beyond shooting would be helpful.

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