The Value of Jerome Dyson

I intended to write a following post to the Eye Candy 02/14/09 post that reviewed Pittsburgh's offensive numbers. I reviewed the box score of Monday night's Connecticut-Pittsburgh game, wondering how dominant the Pitt offense was coming off of their weekend game with Cincinnati (possession-based stats below). The first number that caught my eye however was UConn's own offensive efficiency (ORtg) -- 97.4 was awfully low for the Huskies...the lowest this season possibly? Checking back through their previous games I realized they have registered an ORtg <100.0 in each of the last three games. Last night was not a fluke. Setting a baseline for Dyson & the Huskies, I have reproduced a portion of Ken Pomeroy's stats for the Connecticut team. The snapshot is a summary of the principle contributors on the Husky squad through Sunday Feb. 8, after the last full game Dyson played (versus Michigan on 2/7).

Player	%Min	ORtg	%Poss	%Shots	eFG%	Arate	TORate	%Stls
Jerome Dyson	75.5	107.2	25.0	26.2	45.5	20.6	16.5	3.6
A.J. Price	69.6	108.8	23.0	23.7	53.3	28.4	22.2	1.1
Jeff Adrien	84.2	116.6	20.6	21.2	53.0	8.9	13.2	1.1
Kemba Walker	58.6	109.6	20.5	17.6	53.4	20.8	24.3	2.5
Hasheem Thabeet	76.4	121.3	19.3	17.4	65.1	2.5	16.4	1.1
Stanley Robinson	31.1	100.9	17.5	17.2	49.3	13.0	22.1	2.0
Gavin Edwards	28.6	127.1	15.9	15.7	63.8	3.5	15.4	2.0
Craig Austrie	58.3	122.0	15.8	17.7	49.2	13.5	10.3	1.3

The table is sorted by Poss% and Shot%, clearly showing Dyson's leadership and role in the Husky offense. Using Pomeroy's classification system, Dyson is the only Husky classified as a "Major Contributor" -- a player who takes >=25% of the shots and possessions. While Dyson may be (may have been...) 3rd on the team for FGAs (behind Adrien and Thabeet) and 3FGAs (behind Price and Austrie), he also logged minutes marginally behind Adrien, Thabeet and Price. When calculated on possessions, and controlled for playing time, Dyson was clearly an extremely important part of Connecticut's offense. He was not the most efficient player offensively, but Major Contributors rarely are. They draw the opposing team's attention defensively, giving other members of the rotation relatively better opportunities. Note also he led the team in Stl% (steals based on possessions) by a fairly wide margin (again, controlled for minutes played). The impact of Dyson's loss is certainly suggested by Connecticut's offensive and defensive ratings in the 3 games he missed (note Dyson left the 2/11/09 Connecticut-Syracuse game having logged 5 minutes of PT, with no shots and a single steal).

	ORtg	DRtg
All thru 2/10/09	115.1	90.1
BE thru 2/2/09	113.6	90.9
Syracuse	91.2	70.9
Seton Hall	96.4	83.9
Pittsburgh	97.4	106.0

Dyson cannot bear the load for the squad's rather large drop in offensive efficiency (something on the order of 15-20%) for the past three games, but his injury certainly has had an impact on the team's rotation and offensive rhythm.

Who fills Dyson's role?
UConn's staff and the team will adjust over time, but who stepped in over the last three games? To date Coach Calhoun's Big East rotation has been (especially for him) very focused on a nucleus of 9 players (Dysona included), opening up to 10-11 when UConn has been able to control the game early. For the most competitive games Coach Calhoun has used 8-9 players, allocating 10 or more minutes to 7-8 of them. Dyson's absence has reduced that number by about one. Who has taken Dyson's minutes and possessions?

	Cuse			Hall			Pitt
	Min%	Poss%	Shot%	Min%	Poss%	Shot%	Min%	Poss%	Shot%
Price	82.5	29.2	30.3	87.5	20.3	21.5	90.0	26.0	29.6
Adrien	92.5	16.0	15.8	92.5	23.8	28.5	82.5	22.4	24.2
Walker	62.5	17.7	16.7	80.0	13.9	11.0	60.0	25.0	26.8
Thabeet	95.0	14.2	13.2	97.5	22.5	23.8	57.5	26.8	14.5
Robinson	65.0	21.9	22.4	50.0	13.0	14.0	87.5	11.2	11.4
Edwards	12.5	45.5	16.7	10.0	16.0	0.0	52.5	8.6	6.3
Austrie	72.5	20.4	28.7	82.5	17.5	22.3	67.5	18.5	22.2

Through this first set of games it appears as if AJ Price, Jeff Adrien, Stanley Robinson and Craig Austrie are spreading Dyson's time and offense around. Price's minutes (as a percentage of time available for that position) have increased dramatically, as have his possessions and shots versus Syracuse and Pittsburgh. Adrien's minutes, possessions and shots picked up in the Hall and Pitt games. Against the Hall, the matchups favored Adrien, while it appears to have been more need in the Pitt game. Thabeet picked up the offense versus the Hall; most appropriate considering the Pirates have a reputation as a guard-oriented squad (see Ray Floriani's post on the Thabeet - Garcia matchup as Ray goes into an indepth comparison of the two centers). I was surprised that Walker did not see more court time versus Syracuse and Seton Hall, two games where (I would have thought...) his speed would have been useful against those two (faster) squads. Walker did become more involved in the offense versus Pittsburgh, but like Adrien and Edwards, that may have been more a product of Thabeet's reduced time and offensive role. Going forward I suspect Stanley Robinson will be called on to step up a bit more. Robinson's time has increased as he has re-integrated after rejoining the team at the end of the fall semester.

If the Huskies are going to make a deep run into the NCAAs, they will need to replace Dyson's offense. Stepping up the defense against Syracuse and Seton Hall was a good sign, no doubt evidence of Thabeet's more active role coming with the increase in minutes. Pittsburgh however, exposed the need for UConn to find a way to more consistently put points on the board.

Preview -- Connecticut

Villanova and Connecticut meet for the 8th time in past 6 seasons on Wednesday evening in Hartford. While Villanva holds a 32-26 edge in the series, that advantage is deceiving, as over those past 6 seasons (pretty good ones for the Wildcats) the Huskies hold a 4-3 record. Both teams have an abundence of sophomores, juniors and (for Villanova anyway) seniors. These teams (and coaches) know each other, in some cases very well. Corey Stokes was down to UConn and Villanova. Corey Fisher and Kemba Walker faced each other in New York playgrounds and on the AAU circuit. Dwayne Anderson and Jeff Adrien were teammates at Thomas More Prep. 5 of the last 7 games have been decided by 5 points or less (Villanova is 3-2 in those games). This one should be close as well...

Common Opponents, Good Wins, Bad Losses...
The 'Cats and Huskies played Seton Hall & St. John's recently (within the past 2 weeks):

	Nova		UConn
Opponent	W/L	Diff.	W/L	Diff.
Seton Hall	W (A)	OT +4	W (H)	+15
St. John's	W (H)	+19	W (A)	+12

UConn's (Big East 16-1, RPI #6) good wins include a home win over Wisconsin (Big Ten, 11-5, RPI #32) and road wins over West Virginia (Big East 13-4, RPI #27), Miami (FLA) (ACC, 12-4, RPI #32) & Gonzaga (WCC, 11-4, RPI #34). UConn's only loss was at home to Georgetown (Big East, 12-4, RPI #6). Connecticut is 10-1 at home this season...

Lineups, Rotations...
...Coach Calhoun began the season with a three guard lineup that included seniors AJ Price, Craig Austrie and junior Jerome Dyson. Forward Stanley Robinson re-entered Connecticut at the end of the fall semester rejoined the team and, by-and-large, the starting lineup. Australian Atar Majok did not get his transcripts through the NCAA clearing house in time to enter the university this past fall. He is slated to join the program next fall.

Coach Calhoun will continue to pair senior AJ Price (6-2, 181lbs) with junior Jerome Dyson (6-4, 190lbs) to start the back court. As the game progresses, expect to see freshman Kemba Walker (6-1, 172lbs) and senior guard Craig Austrie (who ran the Huskies as a freshman point guard), early and often. While Dyson typically plays 30+ minutes, Price, Walker and Austrie draw nearly equal minutes. If the staff uses them interchangably, they are hardly identical parts -- Austrie will distribute the ball & shoot in about equal parts, while trying to get to the line; Walker will shoot first and distribute also in about equal parts, but plays a larger role (through ball handling?) according to Pomeroy's Poss%, all while trying to get to the lane with the reckless abandon that only an uninjured freshman displays; Price will distribute the ball and shoot even as he directs the offense.

Coach Calhoun will most likely start senior Jeff Adrien (6-7, 243lbs), and juniors Hasheem Thabeet (7-3, 263lbs) & Stanley Robinson (6-9, 210lbs) in the frontcourt. Adrien, much heralded as a freshman, but unable to carry the team as a sophomore, has found his niche over the past two seasons. He is aggressive to the ball, an efficient (though not prolific) scorer and a consistent rebounder. The star of the front court is Hasheem Thabeet from Dar Es Salaam, Tanzania. Thabeet kicked off the season with a string of 8 double-doubles (and 3 more near double-doubles) so far this season. Robinson rejoined the team in time for the Gonzaga game. He has started the last five games. Junior Gavin Edwards (6-9, 234lbs) sees minutes in most games. When Coach Calhoun feels the need to go deeper than 8 in his rotation he will call on sophomore guard Donnell Beverly (6-4, 190lbs), freshman guard Scottie Haralson (6-4, 215lbs), or sophomore transfer center Charles Okwandu (7-1, 255lbs).

Villanova will start Scottie Reynolds in the back court, along with Dante Cunningham and Antonio Pena in the frontcourt. The 3rd front court starter will most likely be senior Dwayne Anderson. For the last back court slot, look to the staff to choose 1 of the Coreys (Fisher or Stokes) or junior Reggie Redding. Dante is scoring well, though Scottie continues to draw attention of opposing team's defense (not a bad game plan, as the Seton Hall game proved). Dwayne Anderson has rejoined the team after rehabbing earlier in the fall. Dwayne contributes points and timely rebounds. Looking beyond Coach Wright's first 7-8, senior Frank Tchuisi, Jason Colenda and Russell Wooten are available. Tchuisi and Colenda saw time versus St. John's on Sunday.

By the Numbers, Offense & Defense...
A funny thing happened to the Connecticut offense this season -- it slowed down. A lot. Connecticut historically has been one of the high-possession teams in the conference, usually getting between 69-71 possessions per (40 minute) game, good to be ranked #1/#2, or at worst #5. But always above the D1 average pace. The pace this season started off in the low 70s, as always, but declined quickly as they moved through the latter part of their OOC schedule.

When Connecticut has the ball...
				FTA
	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FGA
Husky O	54.1	17.9	39.9	49.4
Wildcat D	44.7	22.4	29.0	35.0

The Wildcats find themselves up against another elite offense. Pomeroy ranks the Huskies #7 in adjusted offensive rating. These Huskies are not terribly different from any of the last 4-6 Connecticut teams -- just better at a few of Coach Calhoun's traditional points of emphasis. These guys don't turn the ball over often (ranked #33 in TO%). They prefer to shoot 2s over 3s (UConn is ranked #337 in shooting 3s), which makes sense because they are very efficient at scoring via 2FGAs (according to Ken Pomeroy's Connecticut Team Page their 2FGM% is 53.2%, ranked #32). They also hit their 3s by the way, but really don't emphasize them in the offense. But look for Price or Austrie if they are taking those 3FGAs, as those two typically take >40% of their 3FGAs from beyond the arc (Price is 59%, Austrie is 40.4%). They make their 3s the old fashioned way -- at the free throw line. And they do rely on the charity stripe for nearly 1 in 4 (23.8%) points. They get to the line on nearly 50% (49.4%) of their FGAs. The matchup under Connecticut's basket will be interesting in that it pit Jeff Adrien and Hasheem Thabeet (& Gavin Edwards when he is in...) against Villanova's Antonio Pena and Dante Cunningham. Cunningham has not drawn much attention from the zebras lately (quite unlike Pena), so UConn's proficiency at drawing fouls may well have an impact on who the 'Cats can put and keep on the floor. The "Four Factors" comparison of Villanova's offense versus Connecticut's defense:

When Villanova has the ball...
				FTA
	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FGA
Wildcat O	50.7	18.1	36.4	41.4
Husky D	43.3	17.8	29.6	18.8

Statistically Villanova's and Connecticut's defense are very similar (the Huskies are ranked #18, the Wildcats are ranked #21), there are however, a few significant differences. Connecticut is defensively efficient by contesting shots (eFG%), limiting 2nd chances (OR%) and keeping their opponents from converting much from the line (FTA/FGA -- which is actually FTM/FGA). They are miserable at forcing turnovers (TO%), ranked well into the lowest part of D1 (#315) in that category. Nova can expect their shots to be blocked, but not have their passess intercepted (Stl% is 9.2, #223). Nova, by contrast, contests the shot (just not as well...), controls the defensive boards and forces turnovers (which in turn limits shots). They don't keep their opponents off the line as well as Connecticut. Connecticut's shot defense is as good as Louisville's, and their defensive rebounding is almost as good as the Wildcat's (which suggests there will be another, nearly as fierce battle, under the Villanova basket). Like Connecticut, Villanova likes to get to the line, which Connecticut is pretty good at denying. Which should make for another interesting battle. Of the two teams, Nova by and large is the better free throw shooting team. If both sides get to the line an equal number of times (based on the past 2 games played at Connecticut, very unlikely), then the advantage should go to Nova.

Want to Beat the Huskies? Then...
The game plan for each team is hardly a secret...
1. Contest the shot -- Identified by Ken Pomeroy's Game Plan Page, the Huskies need to hit a high percentage of their FGAs. This is especially true given their reliance on the 2FGA ("and one"...). UConn had an eFG% of 48.0 in their loss to Georgetown. When Nova has been able to limit opponents to an eFG% of <50.0 they have gone 10-2.
2. Force turnovers -- The Hoyas were able to force the Huskies into a turnover rate of 27.2, the second worst TO% for UConn this season (the worst was vs West Virginia, a 61-55 win). Forcing turnovers is a defensive strength for Villanova. Something to watch for in this game.
3. Hit your own shots -- When Nova converts they tend to win. When their opponents convert it puts more pressure on UConn to convert. Georgetown's eFG% was 52.8; when their opponents convert (eFG%) at 52.0 or higher the Huskies are 4-1. When the Wildcats convert (eFG%) convert at a 50.0 rate or higher they are 8-0.

Finally...
...I don't expect too many surprises in this game (and neither should the two teams) -- after all, the players and staff, with the exception of Kemba Walker and Scottie Haralson, have faced off at least once, and for most players/coaches twice before. The 'Cats tend to be able to disrupt the Huskies' communication, clog their passing lanes and contest their low post entry passes, while the Huskies tend to shut down the lane and force the 'Cats to shoot j's (which they block seemingly without physical contact). If Nova's thin(ner) front court has to spend time on the bench (fouls) then UConn will overpower the low post and score easily. And roll. If the Wildcats can disrupt the Huskies' offense, control their defensive boards and hit enough of their shots, inside and outside (oh, and get to the line themselves...) it will be close. Each side knows what they need to prevent and what they need to do. The outcome will hang on how well they are able to do it.

Pomeroy projects the game will be played for 65 possessions (well within each team's comfort zone), with the Huskies taking a 7 point decision.

All Big East Teams, Returning Players, Lists on my Mind

A recent listing endeavor brought me back to the whole idea of lists & ranks. This seems to be The Summer of Lists and Ranks, whether Mike Miller's Greatest Programs List over at the Beyond the Arc Blog, ESPN's Elite Programs 1985-2008 List, Joel Welser's annual preview "144 Teams in 144 Days" over at College Hoops Net (CHN) or doctordunk's efforts over at Cards Hoops Blog. So how does one decide which (or who) is the "best" program/player/team of 2008/the 1990s/all time? One of the reasons I like the NCAA tournament (and D1 basketball for that matter) is the way the annual champion is decided -- on the court. You might complain about the circumstances of the decision (referees, the time keeper, the decals covering the court -- indeed even the surface of the court -- the view from your seat, the arena amenities...), but not the decision itself. The decision stands, you accept it and move on to the next game, the next season.

But what about players? How does one decide who ought to be the Player of the Year (POY) or Rookie of the Year (ROY)? For an individual it seems the Potter Stewart Test will suffice most times. Unless it is 2008, in the Big East, with the question pending "Who was the best Rookie?" -- then you make Dominique Jones and DeJuan Blair share it.

I have already looked at the Rookie Team from last season (and offered another Six or so rising Freshman To Watch), another group of players to look at is the All Big East Teams from last season. Of the 26 players (a POY plus 10 1^st Team members, 10 2^nd Team members and 5 Honorable Mentions) honored, fully 18, including the POY, Luke Harangody of Notre Dame, are returning to play next in the 2009-10 season. Data for the players, largely gleaned from Ken Pomeroy's information base, is presented in three tables, each ordered by %Poss (declining).

Name	Coll	Yr	Team	Pos	%Min	%Poss	%Shot
*Harangody	NDU	So.	1st	#5	72.3	32.9	35.6
McNeal	Marq	Jr.	2nd	#2	74.9	27.5	27.8
Vaughn	Nati	So.	1st	#2	82.9	27.3	27.6
Mason	John’s	Jr.	HM	#4	55.5	26.9	30.8
Young	Pitt	Jr.	1st	#4	79.7	26.7	29.0
Reynolds	Nova	So.	2nd	#1/#2	81.4	25.1	24.3
James	Marq	Jr.	2nd	#1/#2	75.2	24.9	25.5
Blair	Pitt	Fr.	HM	#5	64.6	24.4	22.2
Jones	USF	Fr.	HM	#2	87.1	24.0	25.9
*Price	UConn	Jr.	1st	#1/#2	79.7	23.9	24.4
Hayward	Marq	So.	2nd	#4	63.0	23.6	25.4
Adrien	UConn	Jr.	1st	#4	83.8	23.4	21.9
Harris	Cuse	So.	2nd	#3	90.0	22.1	18.4
Flynn	Cuse	Fr.	HM	#1	88.5	21.7	22.7
Williams	Ville	Jr.	2nd	#2/#3	89.5	21.1	19.7
McDermott	PC	Jr.	HM	#4	86.6	20.9	15.1
McAlarney	NDU	Jr.	1st	#2	88.9	18.4	21.4
Thabeet	UConn	So.	2nd	#5	77.0	16.1	13.1

All stats explained on possession-based posts on the left of the page. Click on school to link to Ken Pomeroy's Scout Report for that team. Note that Harangody and AJ Price (asterisked) were 2 of the 4 unanimous selections to the 1^st Team. If these players were crucial to their respective team's success last season it seems logical to consider the function they played with respect to their team's offense & possessions. Harangody's presence as the first player listed is consistent with his role on the Fighting Irish squad. While playing about 70% of the available time at the #5, he accounted for 35% of Notes Dame's possessions and 3.5 of every 10 FGAs the Irish took (when he was in the game). Those are definitely MVP-level numbers. Even in this group of Big East All Stars those are "head of the class" numbers. If %Min, %Poss and %Shot give us a sense of the individual's role with respect to the team, how to explain Hasheem Thabeet of Connecticut? He functioned as a role player (4^th, maybe 5^th option on offense) for the Husky offense -- compare his %Poss & %Shot percentages to teammates AJ Price and Jeff Adrien above (yellow highlight) -- note that Price and Adrien between them took just under half of the possessions (47%) and shots (46%) when they were on the floor together. Put a third player who consumes possessions & shots at about Price and Adrien's rate (Robinson? Dyson? Wiggins?) and Thabeet is pretty much reduced to setting screens and grabbing misses. %Poss and %Shot reflect a bit about the quantity of the individual's role on offense (and a little bit about transition of defense to offense...), but say little about efficiency on offense, and nothing at all about defense. Wondering about Thabeet? Patience. Along the same lines as Thabeet, Adrien and Price, consider also Kyle McAlarney and the aforementioned Luke Harangody (green highlight). Like the Husky players, McAlarney and Harangody split quite a few of the possessions and shots when they are on the court together, though the ratio of touches decidedly favored Harangody. I suspect McAlarney got a few more shots when Harangody rested on the bench.

Name	ORtg	eFG%	PPWS	FTRate	ARate
*Harangody	110.2	50.3	1.10	38.2	13.7
McNeal	104.4	49.7	1.05	30.2	24.9
Vaughn	109.5	55.5	1.18	31.4	30.9
Mason	95.3	48.7	1.01	19.4	20.2
Young	110.1	54.7	1.14	33.3	8.3
Reynolds	105.6	51.1	1.14	47.7	20.8
James	104.7	45.5	0.98	33.6	28.6
Blair	109.2	53.7	1.12	47.6	7.3
Jones	111.3	53.0	1.15	42.1	18.1
*Price	114.4	50.8	1.10	38.8	36.1
Hayward	109.8	53.6	1.17	35.7	4.9
Adrien	101.2	50.4	1.11	66.4	7.6
Harris	105.0	48.5	1.11	69.1	15.9
Flynn	112.9	52.6	1.13	34.1	26.8
Williams	98.0	48.0	0.99	29.6	23.4
McDermott	99.4	50.9	1.08	54.5	25.7
McAlarney	115.0	57.7	1.20	17.5	17.8
Thabeet	115.3	60.3	1.28	89.4	2.2

The table above shows the offensive rating (ORtg), shooting efficiency (eFG%), scoring efficiency (PPWS), ability to get to the line (FTRate) and assists per 100 possessions (ARate -- tendency to involve teammates?). When offensive efficiency is factored in, the value added by Thabeet and McAlarney becomes more obvious. They may not have scored as prolifically as their respective teammates, but each took advantage of the opportunities presented. And each in his own way (McAlarney on the outside, Thabeet on the inside) made their opponent's defense work that much harder.

Now factor in the defensive elements...

Name	OR%	DR%	TO%	%Blk	%Stls
*Harangody	13.3	24.2	13.5	2.8	1.5
McNeal	6.0	12.4	19.5	1.5	4.2
Vaughn	1.7	8.7	21.1	0.2	1.8
Mason	5.2	11.8	19.6	1.2	2.0
Young	7.7	14.5	16.5	3.8	2.1
Reynolds	1.7	9.6	21.5	0.1	2.6
James	3.3	6.7	16.5	0.8	3.4
Blair	16.6	23.2	18.2	4.6	3.9
Jones	4.5	10.0	16.0	0.8	2.6
*Price	2.7	8.3	17.5	0.3	2.3
Hayward	8.4	20.8	17.4	1.6	2.5
Adrien	8.9	18.4	19.4	3.3	0.8
Harris	8.9	15.2	22.8	2.3	2.5
Flynn	2.0	6.0	19.1	0.5	2.3
Williams	4.6	17.5	22.8	2.3	2.2
McDermott	7.4	19.8	28.5	3.6	2.5
McAlarney	0.7	5.1	17.1	0.1	1.2
Thabeet	10.9	15.2	20.0	12.9	0.5

And what of Harangody's honor? Clearly deserved as the guy was, in addition to the offense he generated, a monster around the basket. Those rebounding numbers are Top 100 caliber. I was also impressed with his assist rate (ARate, second table). Compare it not to the guards, but the front court players. Having pulled down the offensive board, Harangody was far more inclined than (about twice as likely...) Adrien, Blair or Young, and (about three time as likely...) Hayward, to pass the ball to a teammate for an open shot. Early off season enthusiasm over Connecticut's prospects next season are, Price's successful rehabilitation notwithstanding, well founded. Thabeet, assuming he can carve out a larger role in the offense while maintaining his Hibbert-like efficiency, will easily find himself in the lottery next June. With Wiggins transfer and Stanley Robinson engaged in a one year (academic) rehabilitation of his own, there are possessions and shots available. Thabeet will have to take them as they come.

Scottie Reynold's number show he belongs in this group. Scottie was honored as the ROY in 2007, and a few Nova Nation members wondered if his efficiency was more time and place rather than skill and ability. If there is any disappointment in his numbers, it is in the lack of progress on efficiency. Scottie's ORtg last season was, despite the slight decline in %Poss and %Shot, about the same as 2007. Consider the relatively high turnover rate (TO% -- 21.5) and relatively low (for a guard...) ARate (20.8) as areas for improvement next season.

Caveats, trivia, errata...
1. The other 2 players voted unanimously to the 1^st team were Roy Hibbert of Georgetown and David Padgett of Louisville, the often injured, but very skilled Cardinal center.
2. Syracuse freshman Donte Greene, the preseason co-favorite (along with teammate Jonny Flynn) for ROY was voted to the All Big East 2^nd Team, while co-winners of the ROY award, Dominique Jones of South Florida and DeJuan Blair of Pittsburgh were All Big East Honorable Mentions. Strange.

Post Game: Connecticut -- Corey Strokes?

Looks like I go first on this game. So be it, I have no doubt the Let's Go Nova Blog and the I Bleed Blue and White Blog will post recaps (and in Let's Go Nova's case...player evaluations/grades) before the weekend is out -- be sure to check with them sometime Sunday. But to this point the fan will have be work over the AP story, "Stokes, Reynolds lead Villanova past No. 13 UConn", posted on the official Athletic Department website, on Yahoo Sports and yet again, passed off as ESPN's own recap on their website...I wonder if the writer was paid triple the going rate. It seems the team wore those throwback jerseys for good effect in this, the second consecutive home game. The 'Cats turned in another stellar defensive effort in the first half. And played "good enough" offense in the second half to hold off the surging Huskies. I am interested to see if they go to the throwbacks one more time Monday night for the Marquette team. The breakdown by halves...

Opponent	Connecticut
	1st	2nd	Total
Pace	32.8	29.6	62.3
	Offense				Defense
	1st	2nd	Total		1st	2nd	Total
Rating	100.5	115.7	107.7		82.6	127.7	104.1
eFG%	46.7	51.6	49.2		34.6	55.2	45.5
TORate	12.2	13.6	12.9		27.5	13.4	20.8
OR%	21.1	42.9	32.5		44.4	53.3	48.5
FTA/FGA	20.0	15.6	17.7		46.2	34.5	40.0
FTM/FGA	16.7	3.1	9.7		34.6	20.7	27.3
ARate	90.9	46.7	65.4		75.0	71.4	72.7
Blk%	13.3	6.3	9.7		7.7	0.0	3.6
Stl%	9.1	3.4	6.4		18.3	10.1	14.4

I did not highlight the pertinent stats this time, but a quick check shows the Huskies were exploited for turnovers and poor shooting in the first half. Their 82.6 ORtg is a bit misleading, as they, down by 13 with 5:51 to play in the first half, went on a 12-5 run to close out the half down by only 5. They scored 12 points in 10 possessions for an ORtg of 120.0. This may well have set the tone for the second half, where they pushed that rating up to 127.7. Their rather dramatic second half revival came by punching the ball inside to Adrien, Thabeet and Robinson. Combined those 3 were 9-11 in the second half (from inside the 3 point line, most obviously from inside the paint), also improving their offensive rebounding rate, from a respectable 44.4 in the first half, to a dominating 53.3 margin in the second half. In the first half the 'Cats employed what appeared to be a fronting scheme with double downs after the big caught the ball in in the paint. This seemed to confuse Price and Austrie, who seemed to wander a bit around the perimeter before shooting (or trying another post entry pass). Denying the UConn bigs the ball and to force them to give it up if the entry was attempted (and caught...) also seemed to translate into turnovers, as Adrien, Thabeet and Edwards were responsible for 5 of the Huskies' 9 turnovers in the first half.

During The Wildcat's first half offensive blitz (before the cooldown at the 5:00 minutes mark...), one member of the ESPN announcing team (Len Elmore I believe...), perhaps half deliberately mispronounced Corey Stokes' name to Corey Strokes. The belated point was the young man's form as he took those outside jumpers for 3s. Corey S hit 4 of 5 of those shots to help build and maintain the Villanova lead. Stokes followed that strong first half with a nearly equally impressive second half in which he took the ball inside (where he went 3-3) when the 3s stopped dropping. I was impressed with his ability to take the ball to the hole and score. I had thought of him as more of a set and shoot-type scorer. A very pleasant surprise to find he can dribble and score too.

Odds and Ends...
1. Pena score 10 points on 5-12 shooting, making this the second consecutive game in which he scored in double digits. The redshirt freshman has scored 10 or more points in 9 games this season (5 occuring during Big East play). Pena's PT in Big East games is nearly double his minutes in OOC play. And his per game Big East scoring average, 8.2, is also nearly double his scoring average against OOC competitiion (4.5ppg). His tip-out of Dante Cunningham's missed free throw with 4.9 seconds on the clock was a very heady play.
2. Scottie Reynold's scoring spree in the second half was a terrific counter to Stoke's scoring in the first half. I'm sure the Huskies did not expect to see Reynolds break loose as he did, scoring 15 second half points. Scottie and Corey S. led all Villanova scorers with 18 a piece.
3. Corey Fisher seemed to recognize early that he was not going to break his run of poor shooting this game (he ended up 1-6 on the day...), so he cut back on his FGAs to concentrate on feeding his teammates. Corey F had 4 assists to go along with his rebound (defensive) and went 3-4 from the free throw line. He finished with 5 points.
4. Dwayne Anderson also cooled off from the outside. He did finish with a 2-4 shooting effort, good for (like Corey Fisher) 5 points. Dwayne, however, pulled in 7 rebounds, notched 2 assists and had 3 steals on the day. Nice set of stats; good to know when the player can't score he is looking for other ways to contribute.