Thursday, March 13, 2008

Not My Call...

There is an overwhelming consensus in the Nova Nation about having the 'Cats seeded on this side of the bracket. "Everyone" wanted to face the Hoyas again. While I hated the outcome, and believe it should have been settled (one way or the other...) on the court, Robert Donato's mistimed whistle does leave an air of ambiguity surrounding the outcome. Or as my father (a soft spoken engineer) used to say "If they suspect you are an idiot, why open your mouth and remove all doubt?" Yes, had it been up to me I would gamble on the other side of the bracket and leave that game hanging for the Selection Committee to reconcile.

Villanova went into Freedom Hall 13 point dogs (according to Ken Pomeroy). The 'Cats began the game with their starting back court firmly planted on the bench. And dropped a 14 point decision in a game where the team was obviously misfiring on both sides of the ball. A chastened Reynolds did get in about halfway through the first half, but scored only 4 points in 26 minutes on 1-6 shooting. Fish logged all of 3 minutes. He was struggling before that game (5-15 against Marquette), but has largely taken himself out of the offense since the Louisville fiasco. A rematch in MSG may have offered him the opportunity for redemption. I have to think a recommitted and more confident team could improve on a -14 performance, especially on a neutral court. But that is not the situation the Wildcats are facing...

According to my calculations the Wildcats and Hoyas will play for about 64 possessions. And the score should be about 67-59 in favor of the Hoyas. Using the log5 calculation (Big East Pythagorean Winning percentage only), I get probabilities of 74-26 Hoyas.

Best of luck to the Wildcats!

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