Preview 2009-10 -- Providence Friars

Too Busy for the Details?
The Class of 2009 made the NIT twice during it's time in Friartown, disappointing when compared to the promise they offered in their debut back in 2006. With their loss in the 1st round of the NIT last March they passed into the record books, lasting a season longer than the coach who recruited them. They leave behind a new coach, and their point guard, a player around whom Keno Davis can begin the rebuilding process. Next season may be a bit tough for the Friar fans to watch, but at least they go in with no illusions. Prognosis -- A 4th quartile finish.

3 Years At a Glance
The Class of 2009 brought Providence most of their starting lineup, scorers in the front court (Geoff McDermott) and the back court (Weymini Efejuku) and rebounders (McDermott & Jon Kale). The Class of 2009 made an impact with their presence. And in 2010 the impact will come from their absence.

	Returning...
	2010	2009	2008
%Min	36.0	80.2	66.2
%Pts	34.4	82.6	57.1
%FGM	33.3	83.8	54.6
%3FGM	54.2	76.8	71.1
%OReb	23.0	81.7	63.1
%DReb	25.4	87.4	66.4
%TReb	24.6	85.4	65.3

Sharaud Curry's red shirt in 2008 may have snuffed Tim Welsh's lasts hopes for a longer coaching tenure, but it may salvage a modicom of Friar self respect in 2010. The high percentage of returning 3s reflects the return of Providence's back court and wing starters. The big vacancies in 2010, and hence the opportunities, will come in the front court (notice the very low percentage of returning rebounds?).

	According to Pomeroy...
	2008-09		2007-08		2006-07
	#	Rank	#	Rank	#	Rank
Overall ORtg	110.5	52	110.4	60	112.2	58
Overall DRtg	99.3	131	97.1	95	96.9	90
Big East ORtg	106.2	9	102.7	11	102.2	7
Big East DRtg	108.6	14	108.6	13	100.5	10
Four Factors -- Overall
All Off. eFG%	50.6	104	51.5	106	53.7	39
All Off. TOv%	19.7	128	20.8	171	23.6	283
All Off. OReb%	36.3	59	36.0	62	41.3	5
All Off. FTA/FGA	39.5	87	32.3	267	34.5	208
All Def. eFG%	50.5	235	50.3	189	49.2	109
All Def. TOv%	20.1	181	21.9	117	20.0	223
All Def. OReb%	36.5	302	36.1	296	33.2	152
All Def. FTA/FGA	29.1	24	37.1	181	33.4	101
Four Factors -- Big East
BE Off. eFG%	52.2	5	51.4	5	51.6	3
BE Off. TOv%	19.3	11	20.8	11	23.4	15
BE Off. OReb%	33.6	11	32.2	10	38.2	4
BE Off. FTA/FGA	41.2	4	32.2	13	23.5	10
BE Def. eFG%	51.0	12	49.2	8	48.6	9
BE Def. TOv%	18.2	10	19.8	7	18.2	12
BE Def. OReb%	38.0	14	38.9	16	32.6	10
BE Def. FTA/FGA	28.6	3	40.5	11	32.6	10
Miscellaneious
All Gms Cons	21.4	224	21.6	216	21.8	222
All Gms Luck	+.023	80	-.036	248	-.033	229

Davis' 2009 squad, largely the same squad that took the court for the 2008 season (absent Dwain Williams, an outbound transfer and Greedy Peterson, a red shirt) nevertheless managed to improve their shooting and turnover percentage. The 2010 squad will feature many new faces in the frontcourt -- rebounding trends (largely unchanged over the past 2 seasons) are therefore, not predictive for 2010.

	For the Record...
	2008-09			2007-08			2006-07
	W	L	Pct.	W	L	Pct.	W	L	Pct.
Overall	19	14	0.576	15	16	0.484	18	13	0.581
Big East	10	8	0.556	6	12	0.333	8	8	0.500
Post Season?	NIT/Rnd 1			BET/Rnd 1			NIT/Rnd 1

Davis was able to improve the Friar's won/loss record, using the same personnel as the Tim Welsh teams of 2007 and 2008 (with the return of Sharaud Curry), should be taken as a good sign. The Friar teams of 2010 and beyond should more closely reflect Coach Davis' style of play and philosophy of the game.

The Friar's Nucleus
With the graduation of the Class of 2009, Coach Davis has a rebuilding job in 2010. He does however, have a few Tim Welsh holdovers to build around...

On Offense
Player	Min%	Ortg	Poss%	Shot%	eFG%	PPWS	OR%	FTR%
Curry	79.2	111.9	18.4	18.7	50.8	1.12	1.2	32.6
Brooks	52.5	107.9	22.9	26.4	50.9	1.07	7.0	28.3
McKenzie	47.4	88.6	15.8	17.1	39.6	0.85	5.1	21.5

Brooks was a mainstay ("Major Contributor") in the Friar offense in 2009, chances his role will expand are slim; Curry by his numbers however, shows the potential to take on more, and assuming he will be 100% for 2010, will most likely take more shots and possessions. McKenzie took a step back last season but, finding himself at the top of the depth chart on the wing, ought to buy him some long looks from the staff. He has "extended range" on his 3s, a skill valued by Coach Davis.

On Defense
Player	Min%	DR%	Ast%	TO%	Stl%	Blk%
Sharaud Curry	79.2	5.4	23.4	19.4	0.0	1.8
Marshon Brooks	52.5	10.9	12.5	15.0	3.1	2.6
Brian McKenzie	47.4	10.4	9.6	21.4	0.5	1.7

Significant Additions
The Friars may need name tags for the first few team practices. Coach Davis will blend three red shirts, freshman Bilal Dixon, a 6-8, 228 lbs forward out of Queen of Peace HS in New York City, junior Jamine Peterson, a 6-6 225 lbs forward and junior 6-11 265 lbs center Ray Hall, with seven newcomers, that number two JUCOs and five true freshmen. Peterson and Dixon will be crucial, as the Friars have a huge need for front court players. Peterson has a #3's body but a #4's game and mentality. Under the right circumstances Peterson may develop a productive role with the Friars next season.

Front court JUCOs Russ Permenter, a 6-7 225lbs #4 out of Temple College TX and an undersized, (6-5 200 lbs) #4, Kyle Wright out of Monroe CC in New York will see playing time early and often in the season. Of the true freshmen, 6-2 pg Vincent Council, a 5th year prep student out of the Patterson HS in North Carolina is held in the high regard by scouting services, as is 5-11 160 pound point guard Johnnie Lacy, a 5th year prep out of Notre Dame Prep in Massachussetts. Together Lacy and Council will no doubt provide good back up for Curry, and log some minutes in the off guard spot. The cohort's two front court players, Kadeem Batts, a 6-7 215 lbs #4 and James Still, a 6-8 205 lbs #5 seem undersized for the Big East. Given Providence's need and Davis' offensive philosophy and background (Drake out of the Missouri Valley Conference), it would not be surprising to see both used.


Explode If...
1. Ok, maybe not explode, but if Curry, McKenzie and Brooks can improve their outside shooting, they will definitely divert defensive attention from their less experienced under class teammates. Those three took a collective 49.7% of their FGAs from beyond the arc, but managed only a disappointing 33.2% conversion rate. These three also did not get to the line much -- only 18.3% of their points came at the charity stripe. These guys have the talent, and an experienced pg to set the table. Davis has to find some plays to give them good looks.
2. The front court gels. Really, really well.

Implode If...
A head coach (in his third year as a DI head coach no less) heads into his second Big East season with a squad that has 3 players (all new or back from a red shirt) 6-9 or taller, looking to his 4 Big East veteran players (all back court/wings) around which he will build his second team. Not a pretty picture. What defense can the Friars install that will divert attention away from their young low post presence?

Crucial Run/Bellweather Games
Providence will open the season with three games in the World Vision Invitational, hosting DI newbie Bryant University, Patriot League mainstay Bucknell and Mercer out of the The Friars have been faithful keepers of the flame for New England basketball, and will continue their local rivalries with Boston College, Brown and Rhode Island. Look for how the Friars handle those games, as Boston College is rebuilding, the Rams return a veteran squad (about 2/3 of the minutes from their 2009 squad -- Jimmy Baron the big loss) and the Bears, like the Friars, will have a lot of new faces to work into their rotation. 3-0 against the locals would be very good news. Providence will travel to Alabama in late November to face a rebuilding (under new coach Anthony Grant) Crimson Tide squad and down to Washington DC in December to face the A10's George Washington. Both games, against less-than-ready competition should provide road experience the Friars can use as they open the Big East season with two road games.

The Notre Dame stop on their opening road trip should be informative for both the Friars and Fighting Irish. Both teams are replacing important members of their respective squads (though for Notre Dame, the task appears a bit less daunting). The second stop, at St. John's, however, may say more about Johnnies' prospects than the Friars. St. John's points to 2010 as the season they move up in the conference, and a loss to the Friars would throw an early damper on the Storm's expectations. For the Friars however, a win in the Big Apple would be an unexpected lift. The four game run from January 9th to January 23rd -- a pair of home bookends (versus Rutgers and South Florida) that enclose a midwinter Midwestern road trip to Marquette and DePaul -- will tell us quite a bit about the Friar's prospects even as it provides a hint or two on how the conference's 4th quartile will sort out. Should the Friars run the table they will most likely finish with a 12th or 13th seed to the Big East Tournament, as they have another home game in which they should be favored (and a road game at South Florida). And a 6 win conference season, with a squad that has 3 players who measure 6-9 or taller (6-11 junior redshirt Ray Hall), would not be a bad thing. If Davis' squad really gels, late season (home) matchups with a rebuilding Syracuse and an interesting Seton Hall squad offer possibilities.

Preview 2009-10 -- Pittsburgh Panthers

Too Busy for the Details?
Over the past 5 seasons Pitt has watched outstanding players come and go. Coach Dixon has repeatedly faced the challenge of replacing those players even as the program maintained a high performance level. The Panthers have missed drawing a bye seed only once in the Dixon Era. Most seasons the Panthers barely missed a beat. This season the challenge will be to replace 4 starters in a lineup that finished tied (with Louisville) for #1 in the conference and drew a #1 seed in the NCAAs. How far will the Panthers fall? In the Coach Dixon Era, #6 seems to be the floor. Prognosis -- A 2nd quartile finish.

3 Years At a Glance

	Returning...
	2010	2009	2008
%Min	42.7	66.1	85.2
%Pts	33.4	71.1	86.4
%FGM	31.7	72.6	86.9
%3FGM	46.7	44.0	79.5
%OReb	24.4	82.9	94.8
%DReb	36.4	76.8	91.8
%TReb	32.1	79.1	92.8

If my post on Three Year Trends bears out, Panther fans can rejoice at the relatively small percentage of returning minutes, after all Pitt runs counter to the declining minutes trend -- next season should be a big (upward) jump in the team's winning percentage. Celebrations however, are probably premature; the 2010 Panthers have to replace over 2/3s of their points, field goals made and defensive rebounds, a direct reflection of their losses at the #4, #5 and #1. Point guard may be especially difficult to replace on the fly. In the past that transition has been handled almost like a relay race -- the old and new spend a season together (the replacement takes the #2 spot and works in tandem with the departing #1). In 2009 Ashton Gibbs, most likely the #2 of the future played with Levance Fields, as Travon Woodall (most likely to get the early nod) took a red shirt, and received no game experience. Front court replacements will come from the (deep) bench and incoming freshmen.

	According to Pomeroy...
	2008-09		2007-08		2006-07
	#	Rank	#	Rank	#	Rank
Overall ORtg	122.2	2	118.7	8	118.4	12
Overall DRtg	92.0	35	93.3	54	94.4	26
Big East ORtg	117.7	1	109.2	3	105.5	5
Big East DRtg	101.6	5	104.7	11	94.9	3
Four Factors -- Overall
All Off. eFG%	52.9	42	50.8	135	52.9	60
All Off. TOv%	18.0	44	18.1	27	18.2	32
All Off. OReb%	42.0	2	39.3	12	37.2	52
All Off. FTA/FGA	33.0	261	36.1	187	36.1	177
All Def. eFG%	46.5	59	47.9	79	46.1	35
All Def. TOv%	18.8	269	20.5	183	28.5	302
All Def. OReb%	29.7	45	33.2	183	31.7	83
All Def. FTA/FGA	30.2	42	28.6	35	31.2	63
Four Factors -- Big East
BE Off. eFG%	54.6	1	50.5	6	51.2	4
BE Off. TOv%	17.2	4	17.7	5	19.6	8
BE Off. OReb%	41.8	1	38.4	1	35.9	6
BE Off. FTA/FGA	30.3	11	34.6	12	42.0	2
BE Def. eFG%	49.0	7	50.9	13	47.7	4
BE Def. TOv%	17.1	12	19.2	10	17.0	13
BE Def. OReb%	28.1	1	33.8	10	28.4	1
BE Def. FTA/FGA	33.7	8	31.7	5	28.7	3
Miscellanious
All Gms Cons	16.9	48	22.9	260	19.7	124
All Gms Luck	-.019	190	+.019	102	+.024	94

Pittsburgh excelled last season through their offense and consistency. The Panthers were consistently efficient (2nd in all of DI) for converting possessions into points. Their longstanding reputation for smothering defense took a back seat to the Sam Young's and DaJuan Blair's talent for scoring from close in. When Blair, Fields and Young were on the court together their fans could expect to see over 7 in 10 Panther possessions end on a play made by one of those 3. And if the play ended with a shot, 3 in 4 times the Pitt player who released the shot was either Blair, Fields, or Young. Achieving the same level of consistency this season will be extremely difficult, especially given that so much of the shot production has left.

	For the Record...
	2008-09			2007-08			2006-07
	W	L	Pct.	W	L	Pct.	W	L	Pct.
Overall	31	5	0.861	27	10	0.730	29	8	0.784
Big East	15	3	0.833	10	8	0.556	12	4	0.750
Post Season?	NCAA/Rnd 4			NCAA/Rnd 2			NCAA/Rnd 3

Many anticipated a step back in 2007-08 since Pitt had to replace Aaron Gray's low post presence on the fly. DaJuan Blair stepped in nicely, and it took injuries to Lavance Fields and Mike Cook to derail an otherwise promising season. Coach Dixon had to cobble together a back court and patch over a suddenly thin wing. Considering that 40% of the Panther starting line up was on the beach by mid January, a 27-10 record with a 1st round victory in the NCAA (and a Big East Tournament Championship) could not be too disappointing. The Panthers were poised to make noise in 2008-09. And they did, sharing the regular season Championship honors with Louisville, and running to the Elite Eight in the NCAAs -- their deepest run since ??.

The Panther's Nucleus
Coach Jamie Dixon biggest task this season? Priority items will be to mold Pitt's new front court, manned in large part with entering freshmen (if not starters, then frequent subs in the rotation). Running tryouts for the point guard spot will be high on the list too. Dixon will have several returning back court players to review, along with a red shirt freshman and a transfer. Then there are the wing positions...

On Offense
Player	Min%	ORtg	Poss%	Shot%	eFG%	PPWS	OR%	FTR%
Dixon	61.5	112.2	17.2	19.2	50.2	1.05	2.5	27.2
Wanamaker	47.4	103.8	18.0	13.9	54.2	1.18	2.2	49.7
Brown	43.1	105.5	16.4	15.3	47.2	1.02	7.4	37.1
Gibbs	25.9	117.5	18.2	20.8	58.1	1.20	1.9	17.1
McGhee	14.4	87.7	13.8	9.3	51.7	1.01	12.8	62.1
Robinson	12.9	92.1	14.9	11.0	48.4	0.95	8.7	32.3

Dixon (when he completes rehabbing a broken foot), Wanamaker and Gibbs will supply some outside and inside scoring. All are guards though, not especially adept at rebounding and, Wanamaker (a Phiily guard naturally) aside, contact-shy. McGhee and Robinson will need help generating offense in the low post/paint points.

On Defense
Player	Min%	DR%	Ast%	TOv%	Stl%	Blk%
Jermaine Dixon	61.5	9.2	13.7	14.0	3.0	3.4
Brad Wanamaker	47.4	17.0	18.0	29.1	1.3	2.4
Gilbert Brown	43.1	10.8	10.9	20.4	1.6	1.5
Ashton Gibbs	25.9	5.4	13.7	19.3	0.3	0.8
Gary McGhee	14.4	13.5	0.7	31.2	4.1	0.6
Nasir Robinson	12.9	12.6	13.4	30.1	2.3	2.2

Significant Additions
Coach Dixon went shopping for his guards last season and came back with Jermaine Dixon (a transfer), Ashton Gibbs, a sophomore who is expected to move over to the point this season and Travon Woodall, a red shirt freshman. To this trio (plus junior Brad Wannamaker) Coach Dixon added Chase Adams, a 5-11 senior transfer from Centenary College, who moved over in August 2009. Adams will be available immediately because Centenary voted to move down to DIII early in this off season. Adams compiled an outstanding ORtg (113.6 -- see Ken Pomeroy's Scout Page for Centenary College), due to a combination of good shooting (49.7% conversion rate for his 2s, and an outstanding 39.8% accuracy from beyond the arc to yield a 54.4 eFG%) and an astounding 31.0 Ast% (good for a #69 ranking). Adams' rating was helped by a very low turnover rate (15.1%). His PPWS last season was 1.15. Boasting an FTR% of 42.2, unusual for point guards, but typical for a Pitt pg. Adams should fit right in. Coach Dixon will have him for a year. It will be interesting to see how quickly he makes the rotation.

This season he looked for front court players to replace Young and Blair, and came brought in a very strong class of Dante Taylor, a 6-9 power forward out of Maryland (National Christian Academy), small forward Lamar Patterson, 6-5 220lb native Pennsylvanian by way of St. Benedict's Prep in Newark, NJ, Talib Zanna, a 6-9 220lb center out of Bishop McNamara in Maryland and Texas native JJ Richardson, another power forward who measures 6-8 and weighs in at 238 lbs. Taylor and Patterson have drawn some national recognition; Taylor earning a spot on the McDonald's All-American team, and Patterson ranked in the Top 100 by several scouting services. Zanna however flew under the national radar until the summer of 2008 recruiting period, when he dazzled fans (and coaches) at a few HS tournaments.


Explode If...
1. All of the new players -- particularly Adams, Taylor and Zanna -- master the learning curve quickly. Pitt's approach to the game, introduced by Ben Howland and continued by Jamie Dixon, has been to control the pace and flow by dominating the boards, scoring with consistency (inside and outside, but mostly inside) as they grind down their opposition. Panther fans describe the defense as a "boa constrictor" on their opponent's offense.
2. Gilbert Brown finally has the season Pitt fans (and the media) have been predicting...for the past 2 years. Sam Young has moved on, now it's Brown's time. Brown is only one of several well regarded high school bballers, projected to standout in the Big East, but have coasted once they arrive at Pitt. Brad Wannamaker and Nasir Robinson, along with Brown, have a good opportunity this season to take the reins of the team.

Implode If...
A good many mainstays in the offense and defense graduated or left for the NBA. Pittsburgh lost 4 of their 5 starters, a heavy burden to overcome, and an opportunity to hand down traditions and attitudes, lost. True the conference in general is down, but the rigors of an 18 game schedule, to be cleared in about 9+ weeks, punish the inattentive or lacksidasical learner.
1. Point guard is an important position for the Panthers. The point has to distribute, penetrate and step back and nail the three, depending on the situation. Good judgement is a not "a plus", it is a pre-requisite. Gibbs had an understudy year with Fields, but if it was not enough, and Adams does not fit in quickly, the Panthers will struggle.
2. A dominant #5 is necessary if the Panthers are to control access to the lane and the low post. Gray and Kendall (and Young) stepped into the vacancy left by Taft and Troutman. Blair stepped in seamlessly when Gray graduated. Zanna and Taylor will have to do the same.

Crucial Run/Bellweather Games
The CBE Classic gives Pitt the opportunity to warmup against Binghamton & Eastern Kentucky as a preparation for Wichita State and either Texas or Iowa. The margin of victory (or not) versus Binghamton and Eastern Kentucky will give a hint about Wichita State and beyond. Faced with a slate of traditional local rivals (Dusquesne, Robert Morris), a rebuilding Indiana in the Jimmy V Classic (Madison Square Garden, NYC) and a handful of mid-majors (mostly at home -- the Peterson Center), the CBE is the best barometer on the state of the Panther team going into the Big East season.

The good news for the Panthers is they will host DePaul at home to open the Big East season. What the scheduler gives however, he also takes away -- the Panthers then hit the road for their next three games. Their trail takes the big cats through Syracuse, then Cincinnati, before heading into Connecticut before heading back home for a two game homestand against Louisville and Georgetown. And then on the road again, to the Rock, where they will play Seton Hall. That is one brutal six game run, as all six of those teams are projected to finish in the top half of the conference. the road games in particular will be extremely challenging. A 4-3 record (a home win versus DePaul is a given...if the Panthers drop that game they are in for a very, very long season) would be very good news to the Pitt fan-base. The Panthers have another tough five game run over the last 2½ weeks of February. They finish a two game homestand against West Virginia (the 1st game, against NEC member Robert Morris should be a win), then go to Milwaukee to face Marquette, return home to face Villanova and then take to the road again to face Notre Dame, then St. John's. They will need the home advantage against West Virginia and Villanova, as those two are expected to top the conference. Notre Dame may or may not contend for a bye spot this season, but irrespective the Irish play much better at home, so even a middling Notre Dame could be difficult for a young(er) Panther squad. The Johnnies expect to make a big upward move this season. A 3-2 or better record through this stretch would probably put Pitt in the NCAAs. An 8-8 record or better going into their last two games, a last homestand before heading out to Madison Square Garden and the BET, would most likely spell a 10-8 conference record as the Panthers face Providence then Rutgers, both should be wins.

Preview 2009-10 -- Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Too Busy for the Details?
Overestimating Kyle McAlarney's offensive production while undervaluing Rob Kurz's defensive contributions yielded a massive miscalculation of Notre Dame's 2009 prospects. Will observers make the same mistake two years running? Can Coach Mike Brey find those (improved/better) perimeter scorers and front court rebounders on his bench and/or among the transfers accepted back in the summer of 2008? I don't think so, but then I have been wrong about the Irish. Twice in a row. Two years running. Prognosis -- A 3rd quartile finish.

3 Years At a Glance
A quick look at returning percentages suggest the Fighting Irish have a few mainstays to replace. The officially acknowledged 3 starters (Kyle McAlarney, Ryan Ayers and Zach Hillesland) looks about right. Luke Zeller, a rotation player of whom much was expected but little developed, chipped in some 3s and rebounds.

	Returning...
	2010	2009	2008
%Min	47.0	84.8	67.7
%Pts	53.2	83.2	60.5
%FGM	55.7	85.3	61.3
%3FGM	19.7	84.7	35.9
%OReb	67.2	81.9	84.7
%DReb	59.2	79.5	73.5
%TReb	61.6	80.2	77.0

Returning numbers hint strongly at the role Harangody (returning) and McAlarney (graduated) have played in Notre Dame's system for the past three seasons -- large percentages of points and rebounds are coming back, but very little of the perimeter game. Coach Brey's task has been to find shooters to fill McAlarney's (and previously graduated Colin Falls'...) shoes.

	According to Pomeroy...
	2008-09		2007-08		2006-07
	#	Rank	#	Rank	#	Rank
Overall ORtg	115.2	19	116.4	22	119.0	10
Overall DRtg	97.2	85	92.4	42	93.0	49
Big East ORtg	108.2	5	110.1	2	106.9	3
Big East DRtg	108.1	13	103.6	10	99.3	8
Four Factors -- Overall
All Off. eFG%	50.0	131	52.2	78	53.5	42
All Off. TOv%	13.7	1	18.2	30	18.1	30
All Off. OReb%	31.1	235	35.5	75	36.1	77
All Off. FTA/FGA	27.0	338	34.1	240	40.3	79
All Def. eFG%	47.8	105	46.7	40	47.2	59
All Def. TOv%	14.4	344	17.1	330	20.9	181
All Def. OReb%	30.5	78	30.3	67	31.2	70
All Def. FTA/FGA	27.2	14	23.0	4	30.9	58
Four Factors -- Big East
BE Off. eFG%	49.7	9	52.4	3	50.8	5
BE Off. TOv%	14.2	1	18.2	6	17.9	5
BE Off. OReb%	30.9	13	33.7	8	32.1	11
BE Off. FTA/FGA	26.5	15	37.1	10	37.9	8
BE Def. eFG%	49.2	9	48.0	4	47.8	8
BE Def. TOv%	12.9	16	15.5	15	19.1	8
BE Def. OReb%	31.4	3	32.8	7	34.2	9
BE Def. FTA/FGA	31.4	7	23.4	1	31.6	5
Miscellanious
All Gms Cons	26.0	332	24.0	291	24.7	304
All Gms Luck	-.042	262	+.034	65	-.025	213

Reviewing Notre Dame's Big East "Four Factors", it is striking that while the Irish offense has "drifted" downward the past 2 seasons, their defense collapsed in 2009. The culprits? Look to a declining shot defense (eFG%), a nasty rise in the foul-to-FGA rate (FTA/FGA) and an chronic lack of on-ball defense (their TOv% -- turnover rate) that just got worse. If the Irish did a slightly better job in denying their Big East opponents second chance field goal opportunities, they more than gave it back with slightly worse shot defense and allowing opponents to get to the free throw line. For those who point to the drop off in Notre Dame's offense (specifically their decline in 3 point conversions), consider that had the Irish played even "average" defense last season (about 104 or 1.04 points per possession) they would have finished with a 10-8 record instead of an 8-10 record. And 10-8 would have given the Irish a 19-11 record going into the Big East Tournament; they would have been poised with 1-2 more wins, to go back to the NCAAs.

	For the Record...
	2008-09			2007-08			2006-07
	W	L	Pct.	W	L	Pct.	W	L	Pct.
Overall	21	15	0.583	25	8	0.758	24	6	0.800
Big East	8	10	0.444	14	4	0.778	11	5	0.688
Post Season?	NIT/Rnd 4			NCAA/Rnd 2			NCAA/Rnd 1

Notre Dame's Nucleus
Coach Mike Brey has Luke Harangody in the middle and pg Tory Jackson at the point. That is as good a start as any can expect.

On Offense
Player	Min%	Ortg	Poss%	Shot%	eFG%	PPWS	FTR%
Tory Jackson	84.4	100.7	20.6	17.6	46.0	0.97	30.9
Luke Harangody	80.6	109.2	34.0	35.5	47.0	1.04	35.1
Jonathan Peoples	35.2	97.5	15.7	14.8	45.0	0.92	13.4
Tyrone Nash	26.6	115.7	16.2	12.0	50.7	1.04	68.5

On Defense
Player	Min%	OR%	DR%	Ast%	TO%	Blk%	Stl%
Tory Jackson	84.4	3.7	9.8	25.6	19.4	0.4	2.0
Luke Harangody	80.6	10.6	25.4	14.1	9.1	2.5	1.5
Jonathan Peoples	35.2	6.1	10.7	14.6	18.9	0.9	1.7
Tyrone Nash	26.6	13.7	19.1	10.2	12.1	1.5	2.3

Jackson and Harangody will serve as the bookends, but will senior Jon Peoples or junior Tyrone Nash be ready to supply (and surpass...) the missing 3 pointers and rebounds Ayers, McAlarnye, Hillesland and Zeller took when they left the program? From his numbers Nash appears to be the more promising prospect, but his playing time (26.6% of the minutes at his forward position) suggest his rebounding, block and steal rate numbers may be distorted (they rest well at the high end for DI players). With a Shot% of 12.0 he was clearly not the 1st or 2nd (or 3rd or 4th) option on offense...so those very efficient numbers may also be overstated. He and Peoples will obviously see more time this season and have an excellent opportunity to establish their claim to starting jobs (or higher positions in the rotation). Deeper on Mike Brey's bench, juniors Tim Abromaitis (forward), Carleton Scott (forward) and Tom Kopko (guard), along with senior Tim Andree (forward), will be available for playing time.

Significant Additions
Notre Dame will introduce 4 true freshmen (assuming no one redshirts) this season, but, Jack Cooley aside for a moment, the biggest impact from new players will come from Notre Dame's incoming transfer, 6-3 shooting guard Ben Hansbrough, a senior (with 2 years of eligibility left) transfer from Mississippi State. Scott Martin, a 6-8 junior (with 3 years of eligibility left) guard/forward who transferred in from Matt Painter's Purdue program, but will sit a second consecutive season (2009-10), as he tore his ACL in an early fall team workout. Scott will be missed this season, as he logged 700 minutes in 32 games for the Boilermakers in the 2008 season. While Scott was assertive on offense (%Poss & %Shot were > 23.0), he was not particularly efficient (eFg% < 50.0), he showed aggression with the ball, getting to the line nearly once for every two FGAs. Better still were his contributions on defense. Pomeroy ranked Martin in his Top 500 in block and steal rates (steals in particular would be especially valued by the Irish), and his rebounding, while not top 500 worthy (lacking minutes to be ranked), Martin's rebounding numbers, comparable to departed Zach Hillesland's, would have helped to shore up Notre Dame's presense in the paint.

Ben Hansbrough played over 1800 minutes in his two seasons in Rick Stansbury's program, averaging 10.8 points per game his sophomore season (2008). While not the 1st (or 2nd) option in the Bull Dog offense, Hansbrough was a very efficient scorer (PPWS 1.16), largely from the perimeter. He took nearly 60% of his FGAs from beyond the arc, hitting 35.8% of the time. Using Pelton's inside/outside stat, Hansbrough scored a -43.2 -- decidedly outside. Hansbrough will step into McAlarney's role, patrolling the perimeter, looking for an opening (and a kickout from Harangody?) to take a shot. Hansbrough will help with assists, but given his turnover rate, this part of his game was a wash for his first 2 seasons. His contributions on the defensive side of the ball may be minimal if his history with Mississippi State holds through his tenure at South Bend.

Incoming power forward Jack Cooley (Glenbrook South HS, Glenview, ILL) heads the incoming class of four true freshman. He is, according to scouting evaluations, the best of the lot. Others include 6-5, 205 lb #3 Joey Brooks out of Strake Jesuit College Prep (TX), Mike Broghammer, another 6-8 #4 out of Minnesota and Thomas Knight, a 6-8 wide body (260 lbs) #5 from Maine.

Explode If...
1. Coach Brey can find a pair of sharp shooters who can replace the departed McAlarney and Colin Falls. Best candidates are Jon Peoples and Ben Hansbrough, but with conversion rates in the mid 30s, both will have to become more accurate, even as they become more prolific.
2. Coach Brey can find a Rob Kurz clone in Tyrone Nash or Jack Cooley (or any of the others). There is a chance, with defensive eyes focused on Harangody, for a less than completely polished forward to operate, converting on interior passes and grabbing rebounds.


Implode If...
It is a little difficult, with Harangody and Jackson on board and a half-way decent McAlarney replacement (Hansbrough? Peoples?) roaming the perimeter, to see a floor much lower than where the Irish landed last season. What would have to go wrong for Notre Dame to lose ground on their 8-10 2009 finish?
1. Harangody and Jackson cannot run the offense by themselves. When an opponent shut down (and frustrated) Harangody the Irish foundered looking for shots and second chance opportunities.
2. Take either Jackson or Harangody out of the picture and the Irish are in trouble. Really bad trouble.

Crucial Run/Bellweather Games
The Chicago Invitational Challenge, along with the long standing series with UCLA, appear to be the most challenging parts of Notre Dame's OOC. The Irish will host 2 mid/low major Chicago Invitational participants, Kennesaw State (Atlantic Sun) and Liberty (Big South) before heading out to Chicago to face Northwestern (Big Ten) in the semi-finals. Northwestern returns virtually all of their roster from 2009, and should be in the conversation for an NCAA bid in March 2010. The second game in Chicago will match Notre Dame with either Iowa State (Big 12) or St. Louis (A10), both of whom will be middling teams in their respective conferences. UCLA however, will most likely be Notre Dame's highest regarded opponent. Before the Big East schedule gets underway. The entire OOC may not be set at this point, but of the 6 teams they will face that have not been identified, 3 had RPIs >= 295 last season, while 2 others had RPIs > 200. Of the 12 known games, taking a 10-2 record into the Big East season may not be reason for optimism.

Few Big East teams are as bi-polar in their home-away play as Notre Dame. The Irish have done 0.500 or better on the road only twice in the last six Big East seasons, while they have run their home Big East slate twice over the same period, and finished as low as 0.500 only once. January will be the month for Irish road games as they play 5 of their games before 1/31 (Connecticut, South Florida, Cincinnati, Villanova and Rutgers in that order). 2-3 (or better) in those games would be good news in South Bend, as they will likely pick up another road win (Louisville? Marquette?) before they head off to Madison Square Garden and the BET. Notre Dame will play only four home games during that stretch (12/30 - 1/30) -- having a 0.500 record (+ or - one) on February 1 would be very good news for the Golden Domers. A 3-6 record (but no worse) would not preclude their getting to 9-9 by season's end, as they open their 2nd half with a two game homestand of Cincinnati followed by South Florida. But they would have to sweep those two games, pick a road win and while holding serve at home, to squeeze six wins out of the second half of the season.

Coaching Carousal Part 9: Loose Ends

Army Has a Coach
Army AD Kevin Anderson wanted this search wrapped up quickly, and, having terminated seven year Head Coach Jim Crews on the eve (practically) of Midnight Madness, Anderson has, indeed, identified and, according to the Times Herald-Record, the news outlet that has been on this story from the first whispers, hired Zach Spiker, the 33 year old assistant coach at Cornell. Cornell's head coach Steve Donahue was Anderson's original target. According to the Times Herald-Record Spiker will be introduced as the Army head coach at a news conference scheduled for Tuesday October 6.

Credit the 2009 Offseason?
Are Crews and Spiker the last act in the 2009 season (and off season), or the first fire/hire of the 2010 season? Like most sports these days, the news cycle does not appear to stop, even at the least active point in the off season. Full fall practice does not start for another 2 weeks...though Grambling may not have settled it's own coaching vacancy (teams in the SWAC tend to allow their interim coaches the opportunity to erase the "interim" from their titles), I'm calling Army's hire the last act in 2009 off season. Though I reserve the right to change that if something else pops in the next ten (or so) days. It may have been a relatively inactive off season, logging the fewest number of turnovers in (at least) 4 seasons, the duration has been unusually long. Scott Edgar's (from Southeast Missouri State) termination back on December 31 of 2008 marked the first vacancy, stretching this fire/hire cycle to a full ten months.

By the Numbers
Crews' firing made the Army job the 31st vacancy in this cycle; Grambling, following Army's announcement by two days, became the 32nd vacancy. As in prior cycles, the employer initiated most of the vacancies, and consistent with prior seasons, the employers moved overwhelming in the period between the end of the regular season and the beginning of the spring signing period. While employer-initiated turnovers are unusual at other times (during the season, after the spring signing period ends), they are not unheard of, largely explained by exigent circumstances. Edgars' termination at SE Missouri State came as the culminating act that started with an NCAA investigation into program violations. Both Grambling's Rick Duckett and Army's Jim Crews were terminated as a direct result of alleged player abuse.

Preview 2009-10 -- Marquette Golden Eagles

Too Busy for the Details?
The Golden Eagles return 2 players from the team that went to the Sweet Sixteen last season. They were led by an experienced trio of guards, anchored in the low post by a forward who played an out of position #5. The good thing about getting a class like the one Marquette just graduated is that they play together for four years and develop into a very good squad. The bad news is they graduate and move on. Coach Williams has a lot of parts to replace, and while he brings in a stellar class of freshmen, supplemented with a very good JUCO player or two, they will need time to learn how to trust one another and become a team. A good season for the Golden Eagles will have them playing better in February (and March) than in November and December (and January?). Prognosis -- A 3rd quartile finish.

3 Years At a Glance

	Returning...
	2010	2009	2008
%Min	39.5	78.7	93.9
%Pts	34.3	84.6	96.7
%FGM	31.2	84.3	96.6
%3FGM	33.7	84.1	98.2
%OReb	53.4	69.2	94.1
%DReb	41.9	73.7	92.4
%TReb	45.7	72.1	93.0

The passing of Dom James, Jerel McNeal and Wes Matthews (& center/forward Dwight Burke) was predictable, all were on track to graduate/finish their eligibility at the end of the 2009 season. Maurice Acker's exit, announced in July, was not. Acker, on track to graduate in December, had a final year of eligibility available, but decided to forego the season. Will his experience/maturity be missed? The staff, judging from the statement announcing Acker's decision, does not appear troubled with the prospect of entering the season with so few returning minutes (and points) available. [Note] -- Maurice Acker did return to the team in late September, after freshman Brett Roseboro left the program and enrolled at St. Bonaventure.

	According to Pomeroy...
	2008-09		2007-08		2006-07
	#	Rank	#	Rank	#	Rank
Overall ORtg	117.3	9	116.2	24	113.0	49
Overall DRtg	93.9	51	87.8	10	91.0	31
Big East ORtg	112.1	2	106.1	5	101.3	8
Big East DRtg	103.7	8	98.8	3	98.7	7
Four Factors -- Overall
All Off. eFG%	51.2	85	50.6	141	49.4	198
All Off. TOv%	16.5	11	18.4	37	21.0	158
All Off. OReb%	34.8	97	37.8	23	39.2	19
All Off. FTA/FGA	45.4	12	37.5	138	39.9	90
All Def. eFG%	50.9	252	46.3	30	47.2	58
All Def. TOv%	21.1	122	23.4	49	24.3	26
All Def. OReb%	30.7	85	33.4	197	35.0	244
All Def. FTA/FGA	45.4	12	41.0	262	39.9	236
Four Factors -- Big East
BE Off. eFG%	52.2	4	48.7	9	47.5	9
BE Off. TOv%	14.9	2	17.5	4	20.6	12
BE Off. OReb%	30.3	14	34.2	6	37.9	5
BE Off. FTA/FGA	41.5	3	35.7	11	41.5	3
BE Def. eFG%	53.2	14	48.4	5	47.2	6
BE Def. TOv%	20.9	5	23.4	1	21.0	5
BE Def. OReb%	32.8	8	35.1	13	35.9	13
BE Def. FTA/FGA	26.5	2	50.0	15	43.9	14
Miscellanious
All Gms Cons	21.9	241	25.4	315	20.7	172
All Gms Luck	-.021	200	-.034	228	+.000	156

Coach Williams worked with a veteran, Crean-recruited team last season. That team was, by and large, a finished product; the staff was more focused on polishing and perfecting a style shaped by Crean and the unique, collective talent they had, rather than building and teaching a "new" team. Note their year-over-year progress with shot efficiency (eFG%), even as they cut down on turnovers (TOv%). If the Warriors regressed on offensive rebounding, they compensated with better shooting, reduced turnovers and more frequent trips to the line (FTA/FGA) to finish the play. The same process -- becoming more of itself -- can be seen in the defensive factors. If the Golden Eagles let up a bit on shot defense, they compensated by cutting down on opponent's opportunities to shoot (TOv%), reduced 2nd chance opportunities (OReb%) and avoided the fouls that allowed the opponent an opportunity to finish the possession at the free throw line (FTA/FGA). The more interesting numbers will be those generated by the 2010 squad. That squad's mix of four factor stats will probably more closely reflect Coach William's philosophy of the game (tempered by the talent he is able to collect and mold).

	For the Record...
	2008-09			2007-08			2006-07
	W	L	Pct.	W	L	Pct.	W	L	Pct.
Overall	25	10	0.714	25	10	0.714	24	10	0.706
Big East	12	6	0.667	11	7	0.611	10	6	0.625
Post Season?	NCAA/Rnd 2			NCAA/Rnd 2			NCAA/Rnd 1

There may be some disappointment with the Class of 2009, but note that those Marquette squads extended their post season in each suceeding season. They went to the NCAAs without pg Dominic James, but nevertheless made it to the Sweet Sixteen, is a tribute to their overall skill and experience. Marquette and Coach Williams start over in 2010.

The Golden Eagles' Nucleus
Coach Buzz Williams will build this season's squad around returning forwards Lazar Hayward and Jimmy Butler for a reason...both are good.

On Offense
Player	Min%	Ortg	Poss%	Shot%	eFG%	PPWS	OR%	FTR%
Hayward	78.9	114.1	24.0	27.2	53.0	1.14	10.3	30.6
Butler	48.9	131.2	14.1	10.8	51.4	1.22	12.7	104.7
Acker	38.1	99.7	12.7	11.8	40.1	0.90	2.4	31.9
Cubillan	21.1	86.5	12.1	12.9	36.4	0.80	0.8	23.6

David Cubillan, an off guard recruited out of St. Benedict's Prep in Newark, New Jersey, had a promising freshman season, but has been pushed deeper into the rotation with each passing season. He might get a few looks in practice and early in the season, but if he does not rebound and step up his defense (not to mention his accuracy) he will have problems playing over JUCO Dwight Buycks, among others. Butler is a 6-6 guard/forward who scores by penetrating and gathering putbacks. A good offensive rebounder, he did not show the same knack under the defensive basket. He took all of 4 3FGAs last season, compiling a 100.9 inside/outside rating. That made him possibly the most "inside" rated guard in DI ball last season (but not unusual for a forward). Given their respective roles in the offense last season, expect Hayward to take as much, if not more offensive responsibility, becoming the "go to guy", a role shared unselfishly among McNeal, James and Matthews, while Butler's role will also grow (it has to grow for Marquette to have a successful season), but most likely he will become the 3rd or 4th option on offense, rather than the 4th/5th option as he was last season. Hayward got an early start at leadership, as he was one of the scoring threats on the USA's World University Games men's team this past summer.

On Defense
Player	Min%	DR%	Ast%	TO%	Stl%	Blk%
Lazar Hayward	78.9	21.6	7.5	14.0	0.9	1.8
Jimmy Butler	48.9	10.8	6.6	10.0	2.5	1.4
Maurice Acker	38.1	7.5	19.0	21.1	2.5	0.0
David Cubillan	21.1	6.0	12.4	20.8	0.4	1.6

Competing with an undersized front court was a fact of life under Coach Tom Crean. Buzz Williams, though he recruited a pair of big bodies over the summer in 2008 saw neither Liam Morrow (who left the program) or 6-10/245lb Chris Otule (who played 60 minutes in 9 games) make any impact. Maurice Acker's return, coming as two new members of Golden Eagles' back court contingent log injuries, has to be welcomed by the staff and fans. I suspect Acker's offensive role will grow very little, but his maturity (and assist rate) will help to steady the team during the transition.

Significant Additions
Coach Williams will bring in a combined class of transfers (2 JUCOs) and true freshmen (4 from 4 different states), 6 in all, which should give the early practices the look of a travel team tryout. Competing with senior Maurice Acker for time at the point will be Darius Johnson-Odom, a North Carolina native by way of Hutchenson CC in Kansas. Milwaukee HS scorer Dwight Buycks spent last season in Iowa where he played for Indian Hills Community College. The Golden Eagles will need a shooter who can score on the inside and outside, and Buycks will try to fill that need.

Including Junior Cadougan, Coach Williams brought in five High School recruits (3 by consensus ranked in the Top 100), to fill out the roster. Playing beside (or behind) Lazar Hayward will be 6-6 Jeronne Maymon, a well-regarded if undersized #4 who uses his athleticism to get to the rim, but also shoots from as far out as 15 feet. Small forward Erik Williams will, unlike Jimmy Butler, take shots from the outside. Coach Williams also brings in another tall man, 7-2 (220lb) Youssoupha Mbao out of Stoneridge Prep in CA (the same school as Rutger's Hamady N'Diaye). The entire contingent will not, however, be available at the start of the season, Junior Cadougan, a Top 100 ranked recruit reputed to be jet fast with a high IQ and rocket pass, ruptured his Achilles' tendon during conditioning training in mid-September. Many anticipated he would step right into James' spot in the Golden Eagle offense, but with 4-6 monthes of rehabbing in front of him, his season is over. Johnson-Odom also suffered an injury in early September, but should be ready for the beginning of full squad practice in Mid-October. Whether he will be 100% is another matter. Mbao's amateur status has been the subject of an NCAA investigation, which, according to the Journal-Sentinel's Todd Rosiak, may result in a suspension of 2 - 8 games.

Explode If...
Hayward has to be close to his ceiling as an offensive force. He may be able to replace some of the offense provided by Matthews, James and McNeal (and Burke), but the balance will have to come from the new faces.
1. Dwight Buycks becomes 1st/2nd Team All-Big East good, while Odom & Cadougan step in and share the point with ease.
2. One of the big men, the freshman Mbao or the sophomore Chris Otule, mans the #5 and becomes a rebounding force. The Golden Eagles relied on fast breaks and quick hitters for points. The smaller lineup yielded few 2nd chance opportunities with the three guards, but Williams has taller trees, and no doubt a different approach to the game.

Implode If...
That Marquette will take a step back is almost a forgone conclusion (the coaching staff and die hard fans excepted), the question may be how much ground the Golden Eagles surrender.
1. Injuries to any combination of Hayward, Buycks, Butler, Odom and Cadougan. The team is not deep with Big East level talent (the jury is out on many of the newcomers), so taking out any of the established talent (Hayward, Butler) or the most well regarded of the incoming squad will be problematic. The season-ending injury to Cadougan, Acker's return notwithstanding, will test this theory.
2. The newcomers cannot provide consistent scoring. Right out of the gate, defenses will work to shut down Hayward. If the rest of the rotation cannot punish opponents for over-defensing Hayward, Marquette may be forced to compensate by reverting to a grind-it-out style of basketball.
3. Integrating many new faces can be a challenge, not only in learning the routine and systems of a new staff, but with players learning to trust each other and work together under pressure. Bad chemistry can be an accelerant if the team struggles early.

Crucial Run/Bellweather Games
Marquette has 4 warmup games against low-major DI squads going into Orlando, Florida for the Old Spice Classic. Should the Golden Eagles struggle against the likes of Centenary, Maryland Eastern Shore, Grambling or South Dakota State, the staff may be nervous when they have to face a field that includes both power conference name programs like Michigan, Baylor, Florida State and Alabama, and Xavier and Creighton, a pair of mid-major conference teams also looking for credibility. The 1st round match-up against Xavier should be telling, as both squads have to replace critical players. The X-Men lost their head coach to Arizona over the summer, an NBA-level forward and all conference guard to graduation (and the NBA draft), so the Muskateers will also be looking for answers. Marquette will follow with a game against either Creighton or Michigan, both squads returning intact from the 2009 season. Their third game will come from a team in the other bracket (Alabama, Florida State, Baylor or Iona). Their post Old Spice homestand includes a visit from a struggling North Carolina State of the ACC, followed by a road trip to Madison to take on Big Ten power Wisconsin. Beating NCSU would be a good sign, as their Head Coach Sidney Lowe is under the gun for managing an underperforming team. But the Wisci game, realistically a loss, should be a good measure of how much ground Marquette will have to cover going into the Big East season.

Marquette's first four games, a road opener at West Virginia followed by a two game homestand (Villanova and Georgetown), followed by a road game at Villanova, could well start the Golden Eagles in an 0-4 hole (anything better would be a mild surprise...and bad news for the 'Eer, Wildcats or Hoyas), but tempered expectations aside, the next four games (hosting Providence, traveling to DePaul and Syracuse, then home again to host Rutgers) has to produce a 2-2 mark if Marquette has any expectations for finishing in the third (or higher) quartile. Through the last ten games, Marquette will host DePaul (their second mirror opponent), South florida, Pittsburgh, Louisville and Notre Dame. Among those five games the Golden Eagles will need to find 3 (or more?) wins. The home games, plus a road trip to Providence (their third mirror opponent) represent Marquette's best oppportunity to garner 6 (or more) wins. 2010 could be a very tough year for Marquette fans.

Preview 2009-10 -- Louisville Cardinals

Too Busy for the Details?
Steady or down? Losing both Terrence Williams and Earl Clark in one NBA draft is a blow no matter how much talent the roster boasts. Coach Pitino returns a talented (if headstrong and inconsistent) point guard and center (more consistent and amenable to coaching), along with veteran wings. The cupboard is not exactly bare, but important parts of the offense have to be replaced, and someone has to step up. Another talented class is coming in and should be able to contribute early and often. If the Cardinals will be able to concentrate on basketball this season, all should be go well. Maybe. Prognosis -- A 1st quartile finish.

3 Years At a Glance
Coach Pitino has had the Cardinals operating at a very high level over the past 3 seasons. This is the lowest starting point since 2006, their first season in the Big East, the year after their last Final Four run.

	Returning...
	2010	2009	2008
%Min	54.8	73.8	82.4
%Pts	55.2	69.6	89.4
%FGM	55.0	67.8	90.3
%3FGM	51.5	93.4	86.4
%OReb	60.0	55.3	93.0
%DReb	38.7	71.3	86.8
%TReb	45.5	66.5	89.0

It is tempting to conclude the Cardinals will struggle next season, just as they did in 2006, but consider that 2006 squad suffered injuries to David Padgett and Juan Palacios just before the beginning of fall practice. Both were hobbled and marginally effective through much of the season (Padgett took surgery in February, virtually conceding the season was a washout).

	According to Pomeroy...
	2008-09		2007-08		2006-07
	#	Rank	#	Rank	#	Rank
Overall ORtg	113.4	31	115.2	32	116.0	29
Overall DRtg	84.2	2	84.1	5	88.4	16
Big East ORtg	106.3	7	105.9	6	107.0	2
Big East DRtg	92.4	1	91.4	1	94.7	2
Four Factors -- Overall
All Off. eFG%	52.7	49	53.1	45	49.9	176
All Off. TOv%	19.7	138	20.2	126	19.2	66
All Off. OReb%	34.6	102	33.5	145	37.1	53
All Off. FTA/FGA	31.4	294	36.5	175	37.2	150
All Def. eFG%	44.3	12	44.0	7	45.5	23
All Def. TOv%	23.0	43	21.2	155	22.5	86
All Def. OReb%	31.7	124	30.6	79	33.8	185
All Def. FTA/FGA	30.2	40	33.4	105	45.5	302
Four Factors -- Big East
BE Off. eFG%	52.9	3	52.7	1	50.2	7
BE Off. TOv%	19.7	12	18.9	8	16.4	2
BE Off. OReb%	33.8	10	30.2	15	33.0	8
BE Off. FTA/FGA	31.2	9	38.2	6	22.1	11
BE Def. eFG%	44.8	2	44.3	2	46.3	4
BE Def. TOv%	21.8	1	20.5	5	22.4	1
BE Def. OReb%	33.7	9	29.1	2	34.9	12
BE Def. FTA/FGA	31.3	6	32.1	6	40.7	13
Miscellanious
All Gms Cons	23.7	300	18.6	104	18.5	84
All Gms Luck	+.061	23	-.065	297	-.054	278

Valuing quick, lighter-weight but athletic, prototypic wing guard-type forwards may be a reason why the Cardinals consistently rank higher in the conference for generating defensive turnovers and shot defense. The preference has it's weaknesses -- ranking in the conference for offensive rebounding, for example, is relatively low. The key to improve an already top of the conference ranking in defense (beyond bringing back long time friend and defensive guru Ralph Willard) may be to improve (even more) an average defensive rebounding rate. And couple that with a better offensive rebounding rate. Samuels and Jennings should have the tools to do that in 2010.

	For the Record...
	2008-09			2007-08			2006-07
	W	L	Pct.	W	L	Pct.	W	L	Pct.
Overall	31	6	0.838	27	9	0.750	24	10	0.706
Big East	16	2	0.889	16	2	0.889	13	3	0.813
Post Season?	NCAA/Rnd 4			NCAA/Rnd 4			NCAA/Rnd 2

The Cardinals have, along with Pitt put together a terrific 3 year run, consistently competing for a bye seed (like Pitt, often the top seed) in the Big East Tournament. The previews are mixed, Jay Bilas sees a second quartile finish. Maybe, but how big a step back?

The Cardinal's Nucleus
Louisville may have lost nearly ½ of their minutes (and points, over ½ of their rebounds, etc.), but they bring back a point guard and their center, two places to start rebuilding.

On Offense
Player	Min%	ORtg	Poss%	Shot%	eFG%	PPWS	OR%	FTR%
Samuels	62.6	107.8	23.5	20.6	57.8	1.21	11.4	58.5
Smith	52.9	118.8	15.8	16.9	63.1	1.28	3.0	33.3
Sosa	49.4	97.5	22.0	21.3	48.1	1.03	1.4	27.7
Knowles	41.7	112.9	16.9	21.0	56.3	1.12	5.3	9.9
Jennings	26.5	111.8	18.0	16.5	59.4	1.17	15.1	51.0
Swopshire	13.5	80.8	18.8	16.9	41.0	0.88	7.8	34.0
Goode	10.8	109.5	13.1	13.1	48.4	1.03	9.8	25.8
Delk	10.3	114.7	14.7	16.8	51.3	1.04	3.7	23.7

Given that senior Jerry Smith has not grown beyond the 3rd/4th option on offense (though flying under the radar, he has been extremely efficient when he does take that shot), it is very unlikely his role, even with the vacuum created by Clark's and William's exits, will expand much this season. Though he logged few minutes, Terrence Jennings' Poss% & Shot%, coupled with his ORtg, suggest a larger role. Even with a little degradation to his shooting/ORtg, Jennings would be on the high side for offensive efficiency (ie he would "pull the offense up"). Swopshire, like Jennings, hovers at the edge of "regular player" status in the offense, but unlike Jennings, has not been able to translate his opportunities efficiently into points.

On Defense
Player	Min%	DR%	Ast%	TO%	Stl%	Blk%
Samardo Samuels	62.6	10.1	7.6	20.9	5.4	1.4
Jerry Smith	52.9	8.0	11.1	16.8	0.4	3.0
Edgar Sosa	49.4	6.2	21.8	23.6	0.4	2.2
Preston Knowles	41.7	8.2	10.8	13.8	0.5	3.3
Terrence Jennings	26.5	11.6	3.8	16.3	13.7	2.3
Jared Swopshire	13.5	15.1	6.0	27.5	1.5	1.7
George Goode	10.8	14.1	7.5	16.4	12.7	2.5
Reginald Delk	10.3	7.8	14.9	10.3	4.0	1.5

Significant Additions
The scouting services really like Peyton Siva, a 5-11 pg out of Seattle, Washington & 6-9, 205 lb Rakeem Buckles, a pf from Florida. Siva is ranked in a few Top 25, while Buckles comes in somewhere between 50 and 100. Siva will be a talent upgrade over departed Andre McGee, a good (not great) pg who took direction well (better than Sosa). Siva will definitely make the practices more intense and push senior Edgar Sosa, a sometime flashy New York City point who has landed in Coach Pitino's dog house a few times in the past 3 seasons, to either get with the program or sit on the bench. Buckles has a power forward's game in a small forward's body and is especially effective in transition. With a good handle and an inclination to take defenders off the dribble, he may remind Louisville fans of Earl Clark. The Cardinals also bring in 6-3 off guard Mike Marra and a 6-9 220 lb power forward, Stephan Van Treese, will add depth.


Explode If...
Despite a "down year piece" by ESPN's Mike Hume (you need a subscription), the Cardinals have enormous depth, particularly on the wing and en the front court. You can't blame Hume, teams that lose two NBA 1st round picks always suffer a hangover season, but how many have returned with as much in the tank at the Cardinals?
1. Coach Rick Pitino identified #4/#5 Terrence Jennings as the one who had to make progress for the Cardinals to succeed. Jennings is a monster offensive rebounder and if he can duplicate the effort under the opponent's basket the Cardinals will move a long way towards replacing Williams' and Clark's defense.
2. Peyton Silva provides good support to a newly focused (and "coachable"?) Edgar Sosa. The Cardinals will not need Sosa's shot as much as his ability to distribute and involve the wings and low post playes in the offense.

Implode If...
The potential for distraction can be measured by the noise surrounding the program. Louisville players have been challenged to focus through player tantrums, injuries and player-staff feuds (all with accompanying commentary by fans...). But the noise generated by the "Karen Sypher Incident" (in addition to the usual drama) may be the loudest in the Pitino Era. With a trial still to come (best case -- have it over and done before the middle of October), the worst days may yet come. Count on the road being brutal this season.
1. The Cards have to replace the defensive rebounding that departed with Clark and Williams. Samuels and Jennings were surprisingly light (defensive) rebounders last season. They will have to improve. A lot -- but others (whoever takes the #3 and #2) should pick up some of that responsibility -- as Williams did -- if Louisville is to maintain their defense.

Crucial Run/Bellweather Games
The Cardinals typically put together a decent, though not killer OOC slate, and this season they will face traditional (but resurgent?) foe Kentucky, SEC middling power Arkansas (Basketball Hall of Fame Showcase on a neutral court in St. Louis, MO), a road trip to Las Vegas to face the Runnin Rebs and a rematch with the Hilltoppers from Western Kentucky. Rebuilding has been the off season theme, but running the table, a possibility, would suggest the Cardinals will again dominate the conference again this season.

The seven conference games that follow Louisville's annual tilt with Kentucky should be interesting. The Cards travel to Providence to take on a rebuilding Friar team, then return home to host St. John's and Villanova. A two game road trip with stops at a possibly down Pittsburgh and resurgant Seton Hall is followed by a three game home-away-home sequence with Cincinnati, West Virginia (don't the 'Eers get all the luck?) and Connecticut. Standing 6-2 or better (the Cards open the season by hosting the Bulls -- a game they will no doubt be favored to win) would be very good news for the Cardinal Nation. 4-4 on the other hand, would suggest Louisville will have a lot of work to do in the latter part of the season.