Coaching Carousal Part 2015-01: The Short Off Season

The Ebb and Flow...
Economic cycles, conference realignment and the expansion/contraction of Division 1 have disrupted the grander cycle of the Carousal, but the annual cycle, the cycle within any particular season/off season, has remained (with some exceptions) intact. Which party (employer or employee) dominates at any point in the cycle is governed by the timing. As the season winds down, Administrators perform their year-end assessment of their programs, and baskeball underperformers begin to search their souls. Administrators dominate until the third weekend of the NCAA Tournament when the accumulation of open positions and interviews brings job offers and the carousal begins to move. Departing coaches trigger more openings. This multiplier effect powers the carousal for 4-6 additional weeks. The spring signing period ushers in the next phase. General disaffection with job performance (or employer support or brighter spotlights) gives way to specific reasons -- health (Skip Prosser, Wake Forest; Rick Majerus, St. Louis), behavior (Mike Rice, Rutgers; Billy Gillispie, Texas Tech) and internal politics (of succession, for example -- Jim Calhoun, Connecticut; Dave Boots, South Dakota) or even a combination (Jimmy Collins, Illinois-Chicago) -- for the change in leadership. When the turnover occurs outside of the peak period of the cycle -- the end of February through the end of the spring signing period -- the more obvious the reason for change. Though not always initiated by administration, the changeover can disrupt the program.

The last two turnovers -- Doug Wojcik (College of Charleston) and Gib Arnold (University of Hawaii) -- both initiated by management and coming along the cusp of the 2014 and 2015 cycle -- are examples of the exigent circumstances. For Wojcik, the problem was player abuse, a growing concern among Division 1 Athletic Directors. Arnold and Assistant Coach Brandyn Akana were relieved of their duties amid rumors of document tampering during the admissions process of a potential transfer. The allegations, self-reported late last season, resulted in a 14 game suspension for Akana. The investigation continued through the summer and concluded a fortnight into the official fall practice period. Wojcik settled on a payment; Akana has yet to respond publicly; Arnold may well sue. Given the timing, the College of Charleston looked locally and hired Clemson Assistant Coach Earl Grant, a Charleston native and journeyman coach at three South Carolina colleges/universities (and Wichita State in Kansas) before coming home to Charleston. Hawaii promoted Assistant Coach Benjy Taylor as interim Head Coach. Taylor, whose job before Hawaii was Head Coach at Chicago State (3 seasons, 39-53) has held staff jobs at eight different Division 1 and Division 3 schools in a career that spans 22 years.

Housekeeping
46 coaching vacancies since fall practice 2013 marked the lowest turnover since 2009. The percentage of Division 1 openings (13.1%) also marks a "bottom" since 2009 (9.3%). The last common trait the current cycle shares with 2009 -- the all-too-brief "offseason". Jim Crews was fired by Army in late September 2009 (the last turnover in the 2009 offseason) while Fordham's Derrick Whittenburg was fired on December 3, 2009 (the first of the 2009-10 cycle), making that coaching carousal "offseason" all of 11 weeks. This one, from August 5 to October 24, was just under 12 weeks.

Coaching Carousal Part 2010-01: The 11 Week "Off Season"

September 24 to December 03...
From Jim Crews' termination in late September to Dereck Whittenburg's termination in early December, the Coaching Carousal stopped for just over ten weeks this (pre?) season, just long enough to kick off fall practice and get the season underway. Jack Styczynski over at the New York Times' Quad Blog posted a thought piece, "Looking for the Benefit of a Midseason Coaching Change", in the aftermath of Benny Moss' 1/29/2010 termination at NC - Wilmington. Styczynski, while recounting briefly the list of terminated coaches during the season, could find no value in the timing. While his analysis considered the interim coaches' won-loss records and subsequent inability to remove the "interim" tag from each's title, his premise, that these four Athletic Directors acted "too quickly" struck me as very odd. Styczynski frames the window in which the situations at each institution evolved from roughly the beginning of the season to the point of termination, and wonders if waiting another 10 or so weeks would really be that bad. And within that context his arguments persuade...perhaps. I can't speak to the situation at NC-Wilmington, but with respect to DePaul, Penn and Fordham, the question ("to terminate or not to terminate"), was in discussion for at least the two off seasons that preceded the 2009-10 season. The question should be "Why so slow?", rather than "Why so fast?" Why, in the case of Fordham, DePaul and Penn, did the AD drag out a termination process that was clearly in motion the preceding spring? The grievances and shortcomings of Wainwright (DePaul), Miller (Penn) and Whittenburg (Fordham) were publicly discussed and examined in excruciating detail for months (even years) before the beginning of the 2009-2010 season, as each landed on at least one "Hot Seat" list in the preseason.

When Army's AD decided, for reasons never given a extensive public airing (most likely because he acted quickly?), it was time for Coach Jim Crews to go, he notified Crews, conducted a search and hired a replacement inside of 72 hours. Three weeks before fall practice was certainly inconvenient timing, for the team, for the candidate who agreed to take the job (Zach Spiker, one of Steve Donahue's assistant coaches at Cornell) and for the AD who found himself staring into a candidate pool far smaller than he would have had had he waited six months (or acted six months earlier). The Black Knights of the Hudson recorded a 4-10 record in their conference (the Patriot League) and logged a 14-15 record for the season. Disappointing perhaps had that record been accumulated under Crews, but replacing a coach as late in the off season as Army dampens expectations (and they did split on the season with Navy, so all was not lost).

Why the Wait?
The benefit of waiting six or seven monthes to terminate Whittenburg, Miller and Wainwright was most likely that all three would, with the exception of Fordham (see Jio Fontan -- Whittenburg could not hang on to Jio, who left for Southern Cal), hang onto their rosters. Retaining Jared Grasso as the interim coach most likely allowed the Rams to hang on to A10 Rookie of the Year (in the making) Chris Gaston. Would the Rams have held onto both had they replaced Whittenburg in the spring of 2009? Maybe, but Fontan was clearly mulling transfer options during the summer of 2009 and had he bolted after meeting with a summer of 2009 replacement (most likely not Pecora), Gaston, who had not yet started at Fordham, could very possibly asked for his release. It would have been difficult for Fordham to deny that request. Retaining Jared Grasso as interim most likely helped them keep Gaston through the end of the season. Now it is up to Tom Pecora who moved over from Hofstra to take the position on Rose Hill, to persuade Gaston to stay with the Rams. Penn bucked Styczynski's "interim coaches never get the nod" trend when they elevated Jerome Allen to full-time head coaching status. Given the state of the economy in the first and second quarters of 2009, economics may well have played a role in delaying the exits of Miller, Wainwright and Whittenburg.

By the Numbers...
Through April 9, there have been 37 head coaching vacancies among the 348 D1 programs. Given that 33 occurred before the National Championship game was played, the total number of vacancies in this cycle will probably reach 45-to-50 positions, well above last year (36), but well below 2007's all-time high of 60. Typical of the post tournament phase (though admittedly the sample size is very small), vacancies this week were initiated more by coaches (3-to-1) than by Administrators, in contrast to in-season and during the post season, when Administrators initiate the vacancies (25-to-7).

Rumors, Unfinished Business
As of this afternoon, the Rutgers situation continues unresolved, though it appears that for Hill the question has become "When" rather than "If".

Coaching Carousal Part 9: Loose Ends

Army Has a Coach
Army AD Kevin Anderson wanted this search wrapped up quickly, and, having terminated seven year Head Coach Jim Crews on the eve (practically) of Midnight Madness, Anderson has, indeed, identified and, according to the Times Herald-Record, the news outlet that has been on this story from the first whispers, hired Zach Spiker, the 33 year old assistant coach at Cornell. Cornell's head coach Steve Donahue was Anderson's original target. According to the Times Herald-Record Spiker will be introduced as the Army head coach at a news conference scheduled for Tuesday October 6.

Credit the 2009 Offseason?
Are Crews and Spiker the last act in the 2009 season (and off season), or the first fire/hire of the 2010 season? Like most sports these days, the news cycle does not appear to stop, even at the least active point in the off season. Full fall practice does not start for another 2 weeks...though Grambling may not have settled it's own coaching vacancy (teams in the SWAC tend to allow their interim coaches the opportunity to erase the "interim" from their titles), I'm calling Army's hire the last act in 2009 off season. Though I reserve the right to change that if something else pops in the next ten (or so) days. It may have been a relatively inactive off season, logging the fewest number of turnovers in (at least) 4 seasons, the duration has been unusually long. Scott Edgar's (from Southeast Missouri State) termination back on December 31 of 2008 marked the first vacancy, stretching this fire/hire cycle to a full ten months.

By the Numbers
Crews' firing made the Army job the 31st vacancy in this cycle; Grambling, following Army's announcement by two days, became the 32nd vacancy. As in prior cycles, the employer initiated most of the vacancies, and consistent with prior seasons, the employers moved overwhelming in the period between the end of the regular season and the beginning of the spring signing period. While employer-initiated turnovers are unusual at other times (during the season, after the spring signing period ends), they are not unheard of, largely explained by exigent circumstances. Edgars' termination at SE Missouri State came as the culminating act that started with an NCAA investigation into program violations. Both Grambling's Rick Duckett and Army's Jim Crews were terminated as a direct result of alleged player abuse.

Coaching Carousal Part 7: This is it...Honest

The Last Drop Falls
The whispers out of the Hudson Valley news services, amplified nationally by Fox Sports (Jeff Goodman's Blog) for the past two days, floating beneath the early fall recruiting gossip & more players behaving badly, is word that Army basketball coach Jim Crews was terminated on Monday or Tuesday of this week. While there was no direct confirmation of Crews' release until early Thursday (9/24) morning when Army AD Kevin Anderson announced that he had, indeed terminated head coach Jim Crews, the evidence was leaking out of coaching staffs all over the country. Anderson was reaching out early to assistant coaches at Navy, Arizona State, Iowa State and St. John's -- among others -- to gauge interest in the position. A coaching change this close to the open of fall practice is extremely rare, "for cause" is always implied, and in Crews' case, the offense was apparently for "...putting his hands on a men's basketball player during a workout or practice...".

For the Record
The latest a coach was terminated in the 2007 off season was mid August (8/14), when Florida A&M's Mike Gillespie was terminated after a criminal charge was filed against him. A relatively low volume 2008 off season (43 vacancies, down from 60 in 2007) was nevertheless intense, given that all vacancies opened by late June.

By the Numbers
The Army opening is the 31st this off season, still well off of 2008's 43 vacancies. Like 2007 and 2008, just over 60% (61.3%) of the vacancies were initiated by the employer.