2010-11 Preview -- Pittsburgh Panthers

Too Busy for the Details?
The 2009 Panthers made me a Jamie Dixon believer. Picking the Panthers to finish in hte second quartile in 2010 was a positive expression of faith, or so I thought. The 2011 edition has four returning starters, three very experienced rotation players and a boatload of promising newcomers. Returning players will be pushed by the freshmen early. Keeping everyone happy may be Coach Dixon's toughest job.  Prognosis -- A 1st quartile finish.

3 Years At a Glance

	Returning...
	2011	2010	2009
%Min	84.4	42.5	66.1
%Pts	79.7	48.2	48.7
%FGM	85.4	31.7	72.6
%3FGM	84.5	46.7	44.0
%OReb	92.6	24.4	82.9
%DReb	87.0	36.4	76.8
%TReb	88.7	32.1	79.1

A #3 finish in conference while returning only 42.5% of the minutes and so little of the rebounding is surprising for a Big East team, but a testimony to the resilience of the Pittsburgh program under Coach Dixon. The Panthers can stockpile and develop the talented stream of recruits they attract each year without regressing much in regular season play. The Panthers have won the conference regular season and tournaments under Coach Dixon. The next hurdle to clear is the NCAA Tournament Elite Eight.

	According to Pomeroy...
	2009-10		2008-09		2007-08
	#	Rank	#	Rank	#	Rank
BE Pace	62.3	16	66.8	9	64.2	12
BE Off Eff.	109.3	6	117.7	1	109.2	3
BE Def Eff.	103.4	5	101.6	5	104.7	11
BE Def eFG%	46.3	2	49.0	7	50.9	13
BE Def TOv%	15.3	15	17.1	12	19.2	10
BE Def Reb%	66.0	7	71.9	1	66.2	10
BE Def FTR%	35.6	6	33.7	8	31.7	5

Certainly in keeping with the offensive philosophy, but perhaps consistent with the staff's preference for larger, longer front court players, Pitt executes one of the more deliberate offenses in the conference. While #16 is on the low side (that spot is usually reserved for perimeter-oriented DePaul, Georgetown or West Virginia under John Beilein) it may be attributed to evolving roles in the offense and many opponents' difficulty developing scoring opportunities against Pitt's defense. The revelation is that Pittsburgh does not have an "elite" defense. Pace plays a strong role in opponents' low scores. Though he used the Atlantic 10 conference to frame his point, contributor Ray Floriani illustrated in his article over at College Chalktalk that the differential between a team's offensive and defensive efficiency often determines where it ranks within the conference. A point Pittsburgh makes year in and year out. Defensive efficiency may serve as Pitt's "floor" while their offense might be their "ceiling", but it is the difference that determines their rank. And they consistently rank in the upper division, often among the best in the Big East.

The defensive numbers are not, as I expected, dominating at all. Their defensive rebounding rate in 2009 hinted at how tough they could be at that end of the floor, but taken as a whole over the three seasons, there is no single signature statistic that identifies a "Pittsburgh Defense".

	For the Record...
	2009-10			2008-09			2007-08
	W	L	Pct.	W	L	Pct.	W	L	Pct.
Overall	25	9	0.735	31	5	0.861	27	10	0.730
Big East	13	5	0.722	15	3	0.833	10	8	0.556
Post Season?	NCAA Rnd #2			NCAA Rnd #4			NCAA Rnd #2

The Panthers' Nucleus
Coach Jamie Dixon's biggest task this season will be keeping everyone healthy and focused on the staff's objectives. Freshman season is over for the front court, time to see how good they really can be. Gary McGhee is a solid presence whose lack of speed will not throw Pittsburgh's offensive or defensive systems out of synch. Coach Dixon's style of play places a premium on ball control, pace and physical play. Fans fondly refer to the Panther defense as a boa constictor, and McGhee and Taylor can guarantee that the lane will be crowded and closed to most half court sets and pesky 6-0 guards who venture into the lane.

On Offense
Player	Min%	Ortg	Poss%	Shot%	eFG%	OR%	PPWS	FTR%
Ashton Gibbs	84.7	116.2	21.4	26.1	49.4	1.5	1.12	38.7
Brad Wanamaker	79.6	105.8	24.7	21.0	48.0	6.3	1.08	57.8
Nasir Robinson	61.0	97.0	18.2	17.7	50.8	9.9	1.00	31.6
Gary McGhee	59.1	109.3	16.0	14.1	62.3	12.1	1.24	53.6
Travon Woodall	49.4	93.1	19.6	17.3	44.5	1.6	0.96	29.7
Gilbert Brown	39.3	110.9	23.2	23.5	56.0	4.7	1.19	50.3
Dante Taylor	34.1	115.0	16.2	14.4	58.4	16.1	1.18	68.5

McGhee will never be the #1 option on offense, but the junior center will always get his share of points from putbacks and the occasional low post entry pass. Dante Taylor is also an exceptional offensive rebounder, and will complement McGhee well as a second, (slightly) speedier low post presence. Both are very efficient, in part because they know when to take their shot and when to pass the ball out to the perimeter. Gilbert Brown has been a four (five?) year enigma for the Panthers. Athletic and talented, between injuries, academic problems and inconsistency his flashes have brought smiles to the staff, media and fans, while his game-to-game level of play brings head shakes and heartburn. This is his last chance to impress, and Pittsburgh could have a 38 or 39 game season if he does.

On Defense
Player	Min%	DR%	Ast%	TO%	Stl%	Blk%
Ashton Gibbs	84.7	7.7	11.8	10.0	0.3	1.4
Brad Wanamaker	79.6	14.0	31.3	21.3	0.9	2.3
Nasir Robinson	61.0	16.0	13.4	20.9	1.4	1.0
Gary McGhee	59.1	20.3	4.9	21.7	7.5	0.6
Travon Woodall	49.4	11.1	31.8	27.2	1.1	1.7
Gilbert Brown	39.3	10.9	17.9	17.9	1.0	1.3
Dante Taylor	34.1	15.4	1.8	14.8	4.4	2.0

Areas for improvement for guards/wings Travon Woodall and Bradley Wanamaker include turnovers. Each gets enough possesions (19.6 and 24.7 respectively) that turnover rates above 20% can drag down Pitt's offensive efficiency. J.J. Richardson, a 6-7, 235 pound forward and walk-on senior Nick Rivers round out the returning players.

Significant Additions
This year's entering class features recruits at both back court spots and the wing. All are very good, but they, along with a handful of red shirt players from 2010, will be have to be integrated into an already deep rotation. Among the players entering, J.J. Moore might be the most higly regarded. The 6-5, 200 pound wing who prepped at the South Kent School in Connecticut will see minutes behind Gil Brown. Moore scored the team-high as a starter against the Ireland National Team last August. A good start to his career as a Panther. Point guard-in-waiting is Isaiah Epps, a 6-2, 160 pound lead guard out of Plainfield, NJ by way of Hargrave Military Academy did not take the Ireland Tour last summer, but he should definitely see minutes in the back court roatation in 2011. 6-7, 200 pound forward Aron Nwankwo from Baltimore, Maryland and 6-4, 200 pound sg Cameron Wright from Cleveland, Ohio also made the Ireland Tour and took advantage of the structured practice and exhibition games. Both should see a few minutes in the early season. If Pittsburgh's Ireland Tour last August is any indication, the 6-9 225 pound red shirt freshmen Talib Zanna and his wing teammate Lamar Patterson, a 6-5 220 pound wing from Lancaster, Pennsylvania by way of St. Benedict's in New Jersey, will definitely see regular minutes in the front court rotation this season.

Explode If...
Define explode. Regular season conference title? And Big East Tournament Champion? A #1 seed in the NCAA's? Elite Eight? Final Four?
1. The team is deep enough to sustain an injury/absence or two from just about any position in the rotation and not miss a beat (almost, see below). The squad has to practice and play hard, but play together.

Implode If...
1. With a very talented and deep squad, the problem is finding a role and playing time for all of the important parts. Friction between the younger and older members of the squad could undermine squad cohesion. The staff will have to look for the signs and defuse early.
2. The team has been identified early and widely as "the team to beat", both in the conference and nationally. Unlike 2010, they will sneak up on no one. Can the team adjust to life continuously in the limelight? The expectations can be difficult to meet sometimes, and different teams react in different ways.
3. Depth is good, but the two positions where an extended absence of the starter could prove to be relatively more difficult to overcome immediately would be at the point where Ashton Gibbs starts and the low post where Gary McGhee rules. The team is well-stocked at both positions, but Gibbs and McGhee have emerged as leaders. Replacements can make up the stats, but developing the leadership characteristics from either the replacements or other members of the squad (Brown? Wannamaker?) may take a bit longer.

Crucial Run/Bellweather Games
If the Panthers are indeed in the hunt for the Big East title this season they will start fast and keep going. As pod hosts for the 2K Sports Classic/Coaches vs Cancer Invitational, Pitt should, despite the fact that advancing to Madison Square Garden is automatic, sweep the three game preliminary set. Of the three, Rhode Island will be the most challenging opponent, as the Rams are projected to finish in the upper division of the A-10 Conference this season. Two BCS opponents, Maryland followed by either Illinois or Texas (most likely the 'Horns) will be waiting for Pitt in MSG. The top team in the Big East should be able to take any combination of the three. Coach Dixon's squad drew Tennessee in the Big East-SEC Challenge. The Panther will host the Vols, on December 11 in downtown Pittsburgh, as the featured matchup for a double header that includes a Rutgers-Auburn game. If Villanova faces Tennessee in the NIT Tip-Off, analysts will have a nice common opponent comparison to chew on in the month before conference play commences. Unlike earlier seasons, Coach Dixon will clear the traditional local rivalry games (Duquesne and Robert Morris) before the start of conference play. 12-0 going into their Connecticut game on 12/27 ought to have Pittsburgh in the AP Top 5. 11-1 might bruise Panther pride, but would no impact on the conference race or title prospects (regular or BET). A 9-3 record (or worse, given the competition) would bring a torrent of "What's Wrong With Pittsburgh/the Big East?" stories.

The schedule maker dealt Pittsburgh South Florida, Villanova and Backyard Brawl rival West Virginia as 2011 mirrors. The trio may be one of the tougher draws based on last season's Pythagorean Winning Percentage (PWP), but the Panthers should log no worse than a 4-2 record (sweep USF, draw with 'Nova & WVU). A 4 game run that stretchs through 10 days starting in the second week in January, should provide an early hint about the Panthers' prospects. Pitt opens the run by hosting Marquette, then takes a road trip to DC for a game with Georgetown and returns to Steel Town for two games in 48 hours, versus Seton Hall and Syracuse. Georgetown has been previewed as a First Quartile team by most publications, the road game, set in that context, and with four days of preparation, should be even more difficult. A 4-0 record through that sequence, coming on the heels of a 2-0 start (Connecticut and Providence) would definitely put Pitt in the conversation about #1 seeds (for the NCAA). If the Panthers can break even on a two game road trip through Morgantown and Philadelphia in early February they should be in a good position to close the season with no worse than the top see in the Big East Conference. Their 2/12 date with Villanova, the backend of that road trip, will be the featured event in ESPN's College GameDay Series. Should things go badly on the Mainline, Pittsburgh will have the opportunity to return the favor in their season-closing match with Villanova at the Petersen on March 5. Split that series with Villanova and have those two end the season #1/#2 in conference and the ink and electronic media will tout the probable rubber match in the Garden a week later. And both are probably looking at #1 seeds on Selection Sunday.

Further Reading
I tracked player and team efficiencies during the Panthers' Ireland Tour last month, and provided a few post game breakdowns of the team's performance. Only the first game box score gave a hint about how much time each player logged, so it was the only game where I could devevelop possession-based statistics for each player who logged time in the game...
The Panthers' first win over the Irish Natioal Team
Pittsburgh's win over a collection of players from four Southern Ireland professional clubs.
Pittsburh's second win over the Irish National Team
The Panthers' win over the Dart Killister club. Dart Killister is one of the better teams in the Ireland Premier League. After rolling over the first three teams, Pitt found the last three teams a bit more challenging.
Pittsburgh's win over the Melbourne Tiger, an Australian professional team in Ireland for a summer festival and tune-up for their season.
The Panthers' win over the English National Team. An odd game statistically, as the English shot more efficiently and got to the line more than the Panthers. The game difference came down to turnovers and rebounding, two areas where Pitt really separated themselves from the Brits.

Ireland 2010 -- Panthers Maul Tigers 92-76, to Go 5-0

The Melbourne Tigers
The Panthers beat the Tigers of Melbourne, Australia, 92-76 at the Odyssey Arena in Belfast, Northern Ireland, running their string on the Ireland Tour to 5-0. The Melbourne Tigers, a four time champion in the Australian Premier (professional) league played a front line that featured 7-0 Utah graduate Luke Nevil and several 6-8 players who gave Pittsburgh all they could handle through the first two quarters. The Tigers, as physical as they were tall, put bodies on the younger Panthers in a contest that on paper resembled a Big East game. In all 50 fouls, including two technical fouls, one apiece assessed to each team, were called over the course of four quarters. Pittsburgh squad was paced by rising seniors Gilbert Brown and Ashton Gibbs, who scored 15 points apiece. Pitt's official athletic website carries wire story game recap which highlights some of the play-by-play, and the official boxscore which lacks player minutes. The scoring by quarters...

	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	Total
Pittsburgh	25	20	28	19	92
Melbourne Tigers	18	28	9	20	76

The Panthers upped their "won quarter" mark to 14, and took a seven point lead into the second quarter when the Tigers struck back, launching a 27 point outburst in the last 7:58 of the second quarter to outscore Pitt by 10, 27-17, and take a one point lead into the half. In another first for this tour, the Pittsburgh squad found itself on the underside of the score at the end of a quarter. Using their patented third quarter blitz, Pitt dropped a 28-9 scoring blitz of it's own on Melbourne, retook the lead, and established a working lead going into the game's remaining quarter. With a 19 point lead in hand, the Panthers "lost" the fourth quarter by a single point, 19-20, marking that as only the third quarter (out of 20) that Pitt failed to win. 19-20, to close out the game. This game was played for just under 80 possessions (79.8), became the second highest possession game on the tour so far. The efficiencies and Oliver's four factors:

						FTA
	Pace	ORtg	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FGA	PPWS
Pittsburgh	79.8	115.3	51.3	18.8	40.0	34.7	1.05
Melbourne Tigers		95.3	49.2	12.5	21.3	55.9	1.02

A review of the score hints the game was not close (a 16 point margin of victory for Pitt), but a quick comparison of each team's shot efficiency (eFG% and PPWS) (51.3 vs 49.2 and 1.05 vs 1.02) say the game was closer than the score suggests. Checking the free throw (FTA/FGA) and turnover (TO%) rates, and one might think the Panthers were on the short end of this score. The game changer, the most critical factor, it turns out, was the rebounding. The margin on offense in particular (40.0 vs 21.3) allowed Pittsburgh multiple scoring opportunities on each possession, while denying Melbourne the same. A check on the raw numbers from the box score confirms, Pittsburgh took 75 FGAs to Melbourne's 59. The Panthers used that 16 FGA differential to take eight more two point attempts and eight more three point attempts than the Tigers. Both teams may have had nearly the same conversion rate for 3FGAs (6-14 vs 9-22), but more rebounds translated into more attempts and more conversions. Pitt enjoyed a similar conversion bulge for two pointers, 25 vs 20, and that differential was enough to compensate for the additional free throws that the Australians were able to take.

Notes
1. For the fourth straight game Coach Dixon used his entire squad, going 14 deep, but used a starting line-up that may well start the first game of this season. Tonight the back court consisted of rising junior Ashton Gibbs and rising senior Bradley Wanamaker. Rising junior Gary McGhee anchored the center, while rising senior Gil Brown and red shirt freshman Talib Zanna played the #3 and #4 respectively.
2. The Gibbs-Wanamaker tandem was effective logging eight assists against four turnovers, but it was the rising senior Gilbert Brown, looking more like a point forward with each game, who dished a game-high six assists against zero turnovers. Both Wanamaker and Gibbs scored double-digit points, Gibbs (along with Gilbert Brown) logging a team-high 15 points. But both guards required volume shooting to get their numbers, going a combined 9-24 (3-12, 6-12) and 4-5 to post their combined 25 points. Off guard and point back up Travon Woodall shot a very efficient 75% eFG%, going 5-8 (2-3, 3-5) from the field while passing out four assists (versus two turnovers).
3. 11 of the 14 players who saw action scored points, six posting double-digit points. Two of the three who did not score (all freshmen) did not take an FGA.
4. Four Panthers, all front court players, were tagged with four fouls. There were no DQ's recorded.
5. Eric Devondorf, late of Syracuse University and recent signee to the Melbourne Tigers, did not play. Indeed, the former Orange wing was not in the city at all.

Next
The English National Team will be Pitt's last opponent of the 2010 Ireland Tour. The two teams face-off Saturday at 5:00 (Ireland Time) in the Odyssey Arena, Belfast. The team will return to the USA Sunday, August 8.

Rising Seniors -- Nine to Watch

What I Am Looking For
Austin Freeman won't make this list. Neither will Jimmy Butler nor Tim Abromaitis. They are names already; they made one of the "All Big East" Teams last March. Everybody knows them, and everyone will have them on their "Best in" or "Top" list in the next three months. They are already a bullet on ESPN's "Keys to the Game" pre-game analysis, and will probably continue their bullet status this season. They made their marks during their freshmen or sophomore or junior seasons. Those "name" guys decided to come back and...
a. Finish their education;
b. Improve their draft status;
c. Help their team win a Big East Championship/NCAA Championship;
d. Savor one last year of...before heading out into the world to earn a living;
e. All of the above.

Corey Fisher, Jeremy Hazell and the other recognized junior and senior players, veterans all, make the Big East Conference the best conference for watching basketball. But every season a Hilton Armstrong, or an Andy Rautins, a Jon Wallace or a Dante Cunningham lands in the national press (and picks up a post season Big East award or two) seemingly out of nowhere. Invisible to many except their team's fans, these seniors tend to start somewhere back in that freshman pack, or labor in the vineyards of a low ranking team, but unlike their classmates, they (and their team?) improve quietly every season. By Pomeroy's classification system they may start as a "Role", "Limited Role" or even "Invisible" player, and grow into a "Major" or "Go-to Guy" player over the course of their four years. Pomeroy discusses growth "probabilities" in "Putting Individual Efficiency into Perspective" over at The Basketball Prospectus back in 2007. These guys tend to push at the upper limit of their growth curve each season. The Jon Wallaces and Orinze Onuakus -- are drawing a good share of the minutes at their position going into their senior seasons and they are drawing somewhere between 18% - 20% of the possessions when they are on the floor. They may lurk off the MSM's radar, but their teammates know who they are, look for them on the floor...and trust them with the ball.

			On Offense...
Player	School	%Min	ORtg	%Poss	%Shot	PPWS
Marshon Brooks	PC	66.2	113.9	22.8	25.9	1.10
Scoop Jardine	Cuse	55.6	113.6	22.6	20.7	1.15
Antonio Pena	Nova	61.9	112.3	20.3	18.1	1.22
Chris Wright	GTown	87.8	111.7	23.2	24.4	1.14
Gilbert Brown	Pitt	39.3	110.9	23.2	23.5	1.19
D.J. Kennedy	John's	77.4	110.4	25.8	23.5	1.15
Rick Jackson	Cuse	65.7	108.6	19.6	19.0	1.16
Brad Wanamaker	Pitt	79.6	105.8	24.7	21.0	1.08
Dwight Hardy	John's	48.1	102.4	23.7	28.0	1.06

Marshon Brooks fits the profile, each season his role with the Friars has, for the most part, grown. Securing 22.5% of the possessions and over a quarter of the shots last season would put Brooks on an "All" team if his team finished 0.500 or better in conference play. The Friars didn't, and Brooks will probably put in his last season playing for a team that may well post fewer than the four "W"s they earned in conference play in 2010. Pitt's Gilbert Brown is another outlier. I set 40% as the cutoff for consideration this season, largely on the notion that if the player had not been able to draw that many minutes, there must be some other coach-player issue at work. Brown actually logged about 58.8% of the PT as soon as he became academically eligible. His numbers through what was obviously the toughest part of Pittsburgh's schedule were impressive. Each season Brown has faced a challenge putting in an entire season, and when he could (his sophomore season) there was a logjam at his spot. If he can stay healthy, this might well be the payout year for those among the Pitt faithful who did not falter. Everyone knows Chris Wright out of Georgetown already, but this is one reason I prefer the more traditional, five player "All Team" recognition. Had the voters had 22 slots (instead of 15) to fill, Wright would definitely made it. Rush the Court's Zach Hayes ranks Wright #9 on his Big East Top 20 list. After a red shirt year (injury), and a prolonged un-mentored "orientation" sophomore season Wright's role and efficiency has improved each season. I was not sure about Villanova's Antonio Pena, while his shooting efficiency stats are strong (and his offensive rebounding rate is outstanding) his "share" of shot taking is a little light at 18.1%. That the staff tended to limit his minutes in tight games is not reassuring either. But Pena is a senior, and Villanova's staff tend to hand a good deal of responsibility to their upperclassmen. 'Tone is a solid player who can be very good (when he holds onto the ball). Maybe he needs a little faith...in himself.

			Four Factors...
						FTA
Player	School	%Min	eFG%	OR%	TO%	FGA
Marshon Brooks	PC	66.2	53.1	6.5	14.9	23.1
Scoop Jardine	Cuse	55.6	53.4	1.9	21.4	39.5
Antonio Pena	Nova	61.9	57.7	10.4	20.4	61.4
Chris Wright	GTown	87.8	52.6	2.1	16.5	35.7
Gilbert Brown	Pitt	39.3	56.0	4.7	17.9	50.3
D.J. Kennedy	John's	77.4	52.3	6.2	18.6	49.0
Rick Jackson	Cuse	65.7	59.1	12.7	21.2	34.1
Brad Wanamaker	Pitt	79.6	48.0	6.3	21.3	57.8
Dwight Hardy	John's	48.1	50.6	2.2	15.5	22.8

Check out Rick Jackson's offensive rebounding rate (OR%). The "average" varies by position, and offensive systems can emphasize offensive rebounding (Villanova's) or de-emphasize it (Michigan) depending on the priorities set by the staff. According to Ken Pomeroy 21.4 was the highest in Division 1, 12.8 is Top 100 and 8.7 is Top 500. In any system 10 is very good, and Jackson grabbed 12.7% of the offensive boards when he was in the game. For both Jackson and teammate Scoop Jardine (and Pitt's Brad Wannamaker and Villanova's Pena...) was turnovers. In a low possession system (Pitt/Wannamaker) that can be a killer. For Jardine the redeeming attribute was his assist rate (Top 50 per Pomeroy); for Jackson, it was his rebounding, at both ends of the court.

		Miscellaneous...
Player	School	Ast%	DR%	Blk%	Stl%
Marshon Brooks	PC	10.1	9.8	1.7	2.7
Scoop Jardine	Cuse	32.5	7.2	0.3	3.0
Antonio Pena	Nova	7.5	21.0	2.3	2.2
Chris Wright	GTown	22.6	8.0	0.8	2.5
Gilbert Brown	Pitt	17.9	10.9	1.0	1.3
D.J. Kennedy	John's	21.5	16.3	2.2	2.2
Rick Jackson	Cuse	11.2	16.5	8.2	2.2
Brad Wanamaker	Pitt	31.3	14.0	0.9	2.3
Dwight Hardy	John's	8.7	8.0	0.3	1.8

St. John's duo DJ Kennedy and Dwight Hardy labored long and hard last season. Kennedy has been a Johnny for three seasons, and worked every season to put the Red Storm into the conferences' upper division. Hardy transferred in, sat a season and will play his second and final season in Queens. St. John's fans have valued Kennedy's scoring efficiency and hustle, while lamenting his (occasional) lapses in situational judgement. The problem may be correctable if, with that last timeout in a game, the staff sends the squad back out with a play that has a good chance of success.

Hits & Misses...Last Year's List
A few of last summer's "Nine to Watch" seniors had very good years. Andy Rautins and Orinze Onuaku (& Wes Johnson, &...everyone involved, everyone involved) led the Orange to the top of the conference as the entire team had a breakout season. An untimely injury to Onuaku, their anchor in the low post, derailed what might have been a deep NCCAA Tournament run. Pittsburgh's Jermaine Dixon increased his possession and shot rates dramatically, but his efficiency crashed, and his minutes declined through the season. Villanova's Reggie Redding returned from his fall suspension, and assumed much the same role his senior season as he did his junior season. He finished with about the same percentage of possessions, shots (role player status) and offensive rating (104). The Wildcats were good, but did not appear to get better as they moved through the season. Reggie is playing in Cyprus. Stanley Robinson's role in Connecticut's offense did grow significantly, as the senior took more possessions and shots in the Husky offense. He improved his offensive rating in the process, but as a whole the team stepped back to an 18-16 record and, for the second time in five seasons, NIT status. Robinson was taken by the Orlando Magic in the second round of the NBA draft. Stix Mitchell watched his role with the Pirates disappear when Jeff Robinson became eligible and took an increasingly large role in the Hall's offense and defense. By the end of the season Robinson (and freshman Ferrakon Hall) took most of the available minutes at the #3. Seton Hall's record improved and they received an NIT bid after losing in the quarter-final round of the Big East Tournament. After a Big East Tournament post game outburst however, Mitchell was dismissed from the team, and did not play in the NIT.

Slooow Pace or Terrible Shooting?

Both!?
After the double-take at the score of the Pittsburgh/New Hampshire (47-32), I dug through the AP story to see if the writer could shed some light. And he did. A little. After declaring that "it didn't resemble a NCAA Division I basketball game, especially during a record-setting first half in which Pitt shot terribly, New Hampshire shot even worse and scoreboard operator Jerry Ferber barely moved a finger..." the writer let me know that the 22 first half points (that's the combined point production of both teams) was the lowest of the shot clock era. The teams had about 28 possessions apiece in the first half. And that was the "fast" half. Pitt led 15-7 at the half. Poor shooting or deliberate pace? Poor shooting was definitely a culprit (Pittsburgh and New Hampshire had eFG%s of 26.3 and 14.0 respectively), but the turnovers also worked to keep the score down as each team lost nearly 35% of their possessions.

Opponent	New Hampshire
	1st	2nd	Game
Pace	28.9	26.6	55.5
	Offense				Defense
	1st	2nd	Game		1st	2nd	Game
Rating	51.9	120.5	84.7		24.2	94.1	57.7
eFG%	26.3	58.7	44.0		14.0	40.4	27.5
TORate	34.6	22.6	28.8		34.6	15.1	25.2
OR%	21.4	50.0	34.6		31.8	36.8	34.1
FTA/FGA	31.6	30.4	31.0		8.0	30.8	19.6
FTM/FGA	26.3	21.7	23.8		0.0	15.4	7.8
ARate	80.0	66.7	70.6		33.3	33.3	33.3
Blk%	0.0	4.3	2.4		12.0	11.5	11.8
Stl%	6.9	7.6	7.2		10.4	11.2	10.8
PPWS	0.69	1.22	0.98		0.27	0.84	0.57
2FG%	38.5	56.3	48.3		13.3	31.6	23.5
3FG%	0.0	42.9	23.1		10.0	42.9	23.5
FT%	83.3	71.4	76.9		0.0	50.0	40.0
%2FG	66.7	56.3	59.6		57.1	48.0	50.0
%3FG	0.0	28.1	19.1		42.9	36.0	37.5
%FT	33.3	15.6	21.3		0.0	16.0	12.5

Pittsburgh came alive offensively in the second half, but the number of possessions per team declined to 26.6, so the Panthers' 32 points seem less impressive than the 1.21 points per possession would suggest. They hit their 2s at a 56.3% clip, but more impressive was the 42.9% conversion rate for their 3s, equivalent to hitting 64.4% of their 2s. Pittsburgh does not have a reputation for converting 3 point shots, so the 2nd half spurt was unexpected. Ashton Gibbs and Brad Wanamaker combined to score 42 of Pittsburgh's 47 points. The super guards were responsible for 89.4% of Pittsburgh's points. They would have beaten New Hampshire by themselves.

Holding New Hampshire to a 0.57 points per possession for the game is a signature stat for Pitt. Traditionally they are very defense-oriented

Preview 2009-10 -- Pittsburgh Panthers

Too Busy for the Details?
Over the past 5 seasons Pitt has watched outstanding players come and go. Coach Dixon has repeatedly faced the challenge of replacing those players even as the program maintained a high performance level. The Panthers have missed drawing a bye seed only once in the Dixon Era. Most seasons the Panthers barely missed a beat. This season the challenge will be to replace 4 starters in a lineup that finished tied (with Louisville) for #1 in the conference and drew a #1 seed in the NCAAs. How far will the Panthers fall? In the Coach Dixon Era, #6 seems to be the floor. Prognosis -- A 2nd quartile finish.

3 Years At a Glance

	Returning...
	2010	2009	2008
%Min	42.7	66.1	85.2
%Pts	33.4	71.1	86.4
%FGM	31.7	72.6	86.9
%3FGM	46.7	44.0	79.5
%OReb	24.4	82.9	94.8
%DReb	36.4	76.8	91.8
%TReb	32.1	79.1	92.8

If my post on Three Year Trends bears out, Panther fans can rejoice at the relatively small percentage of returning minutes, after all Pitt runs counter to the declining minutes trend -- next season should be a big (upward) jump in the team's winning percentage. Celebrations however, are probably premature; the 2010 Panthers have to replace over 2/3s of their points, field goals made and defensive rebounds, a direct reflection of their losses at the #4, #5 and #1. Point guard may be especially difficult to replace on the fly. In the past that transition has been handled almost like a relay race -- the old and new spend a season together (the replacement takes the #2 spot and works in tandem with the departing #1). In 2009 Ashton Gibbs, most likely the #2 of the future played with Levance Fields, as Travon Woodall (most likely to get the early nod) took a red shirt, and received no game experience. Front court replacements will come from the (deep) bench and incoming freshmen.

	According to Pomeroy...
	2008-09		2007-08		2006-07
	#	Rank	#	Rank	#	Rank
Overall ORtg	122.2	2	118.7	8	118.4	12
Overall DRtg	92.0	35	93.3	54	94.4	26
Big East ORtg	117.7	1	109.2	3	105.5	5
Big East DRtg	101.6	5	104.7	11	94.9	3
Four Factors -- Overall
All Off. eFG%	52.9	42	50.8	135	52.9	60
All Off. TOv%	18.0	44	18.1	27	18.2	32
All Off. OReb%	42.0	2	39.3	12	37.2	52
All Off. FTA/FGA	33.0	261	36.1	187	36.1	177
All Def. eFG%	46.5	59	47.9	79	46.1	35
All Def. TOv%	18.8	269	20.5	183	28.5	302
All Def. OReb%	29.7	45	33.2	183	31.7	83
All Def. FTA/FGA	30.2	42	28.6	35	31.2	63
Four Factors -- Big East
BE Off. eFG%	54.6	1	50.5	6	51.2	4
BE Off. TOv%	17.2	4	17.7	5	19.6	8
BE Off. OReb%	41.8	1	38.4	1	35.9	6
BE Off. FTA/FGA	30.3	11	34.6	12	42.0	2
BE Def. eFG%	49.0	7	50.9	13	47.7	4
BE Def. TOv%	17.1	12	19.2	10	17.0	13
BE Def. OReb%	28.1	1	33.8	10	28.4	1
BE Def. FTA/FGA	33.7	8	31.7	5	28.7	3
Miscellanious
All Gms Cons	16.9	48	22.9	260	19.7	124
All Gms Luck	-.019	190	+.019	102	+.024	94

Pittsburgh excelled last season through their offense and consistency. The Panthers were consistently efficient (2nd in all of DI) for converting possessions into points. Their longstanding reputation for smothering defense took a back seat to the Sam Young's and DaJuan Blair's talent for scoring from close in. When Blair, Fields and Young were on the court together their fans could expect to see over 7 in 10 Panther possessions end on a play made by one of those 3. And if the play ended with a shot, 3 in 4 times the Pitt player who released the shot was either Blair, Fields, or Young. Achieving the same level of consistency this season will be extremely difficult, especially given that so much of the shot production has left.

	For the Record...
	2008-09			2007-08			2006-07
	W	L	Pct.	W	L	Pct.	W	L	Pct.
Overall	31	5	0.861	27	10	0.730	29	8	0.784
Big East	15	3	0.833	10	8	0.556	12	4	0.750
Post Season?	NCAA/Rnd 4			NCAA/Rnd 2			NCAA/Rnd 3

Many anticipated a step back in 2007-08 since Pitt had to replace Aaron Gray's low post presence on the fly. DaJuan Blair stepped in nicely, and it took injuries to Lavance Fields and Mike Cook to derail an otherwise promising season. Coach Dixon had to cobble together a back court and patch over a suddenly thin wing. Considering that 40% of the Panther starting line up was on the beach by mid January, a 27-10 record with a 1st round victory in the NCAA (and a Big East Tournament Championship) could not be too disappointing. The Panthers were poised to make noise in 2008-09. And they did, sharing the regular season Championship honors with Louisville, and running to the Elite Eight in the NCAAs -- their deepest run since ??.

The Panther's Nucleus
Coach Jamie Dixon biggest task this season? Priority items will be to mold Pitt's new front court, manned in large part with entering freshmen (if not starters, then frequent subs in the rotation). Running tryouts for the point guard spot will be high on the list too. Dixon will have several returning back court players to review, along with a red shirt freshman and a transfer. Then there are the wing positions...

On Offense
Player	Min%	ORtg	Poss%	Shot%	eFG%	PPWS	OR%	FTR%
Dixon	61.5	112.2	17.2	19.2	50.2	1.05	2.5	27.2
Wanamaker	47.4	103.8	18.0	13.9	54.2	1.18	2.2	49.7
Brown	43.1	105.5	16.4	15.3	47.2	1.02	7.4	37.1
Gibbs	25.9	117.5	18.2	20.8	58.1	1.20	1.9	17.1
McGhee	14.4	87.7	13.8	9.3	51.7	1.01	12.8	62.1
Robinson	12.9	92.1	14.9	11.0	48.4	0.95	8.7	32.3

Dixon (when he completes rehabbing a broken foot), Wanamaker and Gibbs will supply some outside and inside scoring. All are guards though, not especially adept at rebounding and, Wanamaker (a Phiily guard naturally) aside, contact-shy. McGhee and Robinson will need help generating offense in the low post/paint points.

On Defense
Player	Min%	DR%	Ast%	TOv%	Stl%	Blk%
Jermaine Dixon	61.5	9.2	13.7	14.0	3.0	3.4
Brad Wanamaker	47.4	17.0	18.0	29.1	1.3	2.4
Gilbert Brown	43.1	10.8	10.9	20.4	1.6	1.5
Ashton Gibbs	25.9	5.4	13.7	19.3	0.3	0.8
Gary McGhee	14.4	13.5	0.7	31.2	4.1	0.6
Nasir Robinson	12.9	12.6	13.4	30.1	2.3	2.2

Significant Additions
Coach Dixon went shopping for his guards last season and came back with Jermaine Dixon (a transfer), Ashton Gibbs, a sophomore who is expected to move over to the point this season and Travon Woodall, a red shirt freshman. To this trio (plus junior Brad Wannamaker) Coach Dixon added Chase Adams, a 5-11 senior transfer from Centenary College, who moved over in August 2009. Adams will be available immediately because Centenary voted to move down to DIII early in this off season. Adams compiled an outstanding ORtg (113.6 -- see Ken Pomeroy's Scout Page for Centenary College), due to a combination of good shooting (49.7% conversion rate for his 2s, and an outstanding 39.8% accuracy from beyond the arc to yield a 54.4 eFG%) and an astounding 31.0 Ast% (good for a #69 ranking). Adams' rating was helped by a very low turnover rate (15.1%). His PPWS last season was 1.15. Boasting an FTR% of 42.2, unusual for point guards, but typical for a Pitt pg. Adams should fit right in. Coach Dixon will have him for a year. It will be interesting to see how quickly he makes the rotation.

This season he looked for front court players to replace Young and Blair, and came brought in a very strong class of Dante Taylor, a 6-9 power forward out of Maryland (National Christian Academy), small forward Lamar Patterson, 6-5 220lb native Pennsylvanian by way of St. Benedict's Prep in Newark, NJ, Talib Zanna, a 6-9 220lb center out of Bishop McNamara in Maryland and Texas native JJ Richardson, another power forward who measures 6-8 and weighs in at 238 lbs. Taylor and Patterson have drawn some national recognition; Taylor earning a spot on the McDonald's All-American team, and Patterson ranked in the Top 100 by several scouting services. Zanna however flew under the national radar until the summer of 2008 recruiting period, when he dazzled fans (and coaches) at a few HS tournaments.


Explode If...
1. All of the new players -- particularly Adams, Taylor and Zanna -- master the learning curve quickly. Pitt's approach to the game, introduced by Ben Howland and continued by Jamie Dixon, has been to control the pace and flow by dominating the boards, scoring with consistency (inside and outside, but mostly inside) as they grind down their opposition. Panther fans describe the defense as a "boa constrictor" on their opponent's offense.
2. Gilbert Brown finally has the season Pitt fans (and the media) have been predicting...for the past 2 years. Sam Young has moved on, now it's Brown's time. Brown is only one of several well regarded high school bballers, projected to standout in the Big East, but have coasted once they arrive at Pitt. Brad Wannamaker and Nasir Robinson, along with Brown, have a good opportunity this season to take the reins of the team.

Implode If...
A good many mainstays in the offense and defense graduated or left for the NBA. Pittsburgh lost 4 of their 5 starters, a heavy burden to overcome, and an opportunity to hand down traditions and attitudes, lost. True the conference in general is down, but the rigors of an 18 game schedule, to be cleared in about 9+ weeks, punish the inattentive or lacksidasical learner.
1. Point guard is an important position for the Panthers. The point has to distribute, penetrate and step back and nail the three, depending on the situation. Good judgement is a not "a plus", it is a pre-requisite. Gibbs had an understudy year with Fields, but if it was not enough, and Adams does not fit in quickly, the Panthers will struggle.
2. A dominant #5 is necessary if the Panthers are to control access to the lane and the low post. Gray and Kendall (and Young) stepped into the vacancy left by Taft and Troutman. Blair stepped in seamlessly when Gray graduated. Zanna and Taylor will have to do the same.

Crucial Run/Bellweather Games
The CBE Classic gives Pitt the opportunity to warmup against Binghamton & Eastern Kentucky as a preparation for Wichita State and either Texas or Iowa. The margin of victory (or not) versus Binghamton and Eastern Kentucky will give a hint about Wichita State and beyond. Faced with a slate of traditional local rivals (Dusquesne, Robert Morris), a rebuilding Indiana in the Jimmy V Classic (Madison Square Garden, NYC) and a handful of mid-majors (mostly at home -- the Peterson Center), the CBE is the best barometer on the state of the Panther team going into the Big East season.

The good news for the Panthers is they will host DePaul at home to open the Big East season. What the scheduler gives however, he also takes away -- the Panthers then hit the road for their next three games. Their trail takes the big cats through Syracuse, then Cincinnati, before heading into Connecticut before heading back home for a two game homestand against Louisville and Georgetown. And then on the road again, to the Rock, where they will play Seton Hall. That is one brutal six game run, as all six of those teams are projected to finish in the top half of the conference. the road games in particular will be extremely challenging. A 4-3 record (a home win versus DePaul is a given...if the Panthers drop that game they are in for a very, very long season) would be very good news to the Pitt fan-base. The Panthers have another tough five game run over the last 2½ weeks of February. They finish a two game homestand against West Virginia (the 1st game, against NEC member Robert Morris should be a win), then go to Milwaukee to face Marquette, return home to face Villanova and then take to the road again to face Notre Dame, then St. John's. They will need the home advantage against West Virginia and Villanova, as those two are expected to top the conference. Notre Dame may or may not contend for a bye spot this season, but irrespective the Irish play much better at home, so even a middling Notre Dame could be difficult for a young(er) Panther squad. The Johnnies expect to make a big upward move this season. A 3-2 or better record through this stretch would probably put Pitt in the NCAAs. An 8-8 record or better going into their last two games, a last homestand before heading out to Madison Square Garden and the BET, would most likely spell a 10-8 conference record as the Panthers face Providence then Rutgers, both should be wins.

Rising Juniors -- 10 to Watch

After the Rush
Looking at the rising juniors makes me a bit nervous. How many times am I going to have to write "X" is going to have a breakout season...this time...honest before he actually does? Like other "10 to Watch" postings, I am not going to note the 1st or 2nd All Big East Teamers, I want to look at the guys who have fair-to-good (or better) scoring efficiencies, but are stuck in the "role player" category. They might be on the threshold of a breakout (or more likely solid starter/regular-level) season. The suddenly a stud player doesn't develop every season. Particularly for the four year players, just making progress every season can spell "star" status by the senior season. Villanova's Dante Cunningham is a great example of the constantly progressing player who was good coming in, but became great by his senior season. I am not going to include transfers/JUCOs who enter with upper classmen status (I covered a few of them in a previous post), but rather will look only at those players who have 1-2 Big East seasons under their belts.

On Offense...
Player	Team	%Min	ORtg	%Poss	%Shots	eFG%	PPWS	OR%	FTR%
Butler	MU	48.9	131.2	14.1	10.8	51.4	1.22	12.7	104.7
Stokes	Nova	56.9	115.3	17.5	21.5	55.2	1.18	3.1	24.6
Freeman	GTown	72.5	115.2	19.5	21.7	53.4	1.15	5.2	41.0
Knowles	Ville	41.7	112.9	16.9	21.0	56.3	1.12	5.3	9.9
Brooks	PC	52.5	107.9	22.9	26.4	50.9	1.07	7.0	28.3
Jackson	Cuse	53.4	107.2	18.5	18.3	62.3	1.21	11.0	34.5
Kennedy	John's	86.2	106.1	21.2	20.1	45.6	1.05	5.5	56.2
Wanamaker	Pitt	47.4	103.8	18.0	13.9	54.2	1.18	2.2	49.7
Koshwal	DPU	77.7	100.0	23.5	20.0	52.7	1.08	12.2	45.0
Evans	John's	68.6	96.7	21.9	21.1	51.4	1.04	11.7	44.6

By all accounts Jimmy Butler will pick up more time and possessions. Pomeroy's growth curve suggests the window (to 95% confidence) should be just shy of 20% of possessions next season (or down to about 10%, which would suggest he was benched in favor of someone else...). Butler helped himself with good offensive rebounding (how many of his FGMs were putbacks?) and benefited from playing in a rotation with 4 others who no doubt drew much more defensive attention than he. Like Butler, Louisville's Preston Knowles and Villanova's Corey Stokes start on the low side (16.9 and 17.5 respectively) for possessions, but each is extremely efficient (see their ORtgs) and has an upper edge in their "growth windows" of around 24%. And given the attrition suffered by Louisville and Villanove, each should have an opportunity to get more possessions (and shots).

On Defense...
Player	Team	%Min	%Ast	TO%	%Blk	%Stls	DR%
Jimmy Butler	MU	48.9	6.6	10.0	2.5	1.4	10.8
Corey Stokes	Nova	56.9	8.2	15.0	1.4	1.7	13.6
Austin Freeman	GTown	72.5	14.6	13.9	0.6	1.8	11.3
Preston Knowles	Ville	41.7	10.8	13.8	0.5	3.3	8.2
Marshon Brooks	PC	52.5	12.5	15.0	3.1	2.6	10.9
Rick Jackson	Cuse	53.4	7.9	21.6	7.3	2.3	16.9
D.J. Kennedy	John's	86.2	17.7	17.4	1.3	2.6	16.9
Brad Wanamaker	Pitt	47.4	18.0	29.1	1.3	2.4	17.0
Mac Koshwal	DPU	77.7	12.7	21.5	1.4	2.5	20.8
Sean Evans	John's	68.6	5.0	20.3	1.1	2.2	17.6

UConn big men typically take most of the oxygen out of a discussion of Big East shot blockers. Next season may be Rick Jackson's (and Syracuse's) turn. Brad Wanamaker's %Shot is light (13.9), suggesting he was way down on the priority list in the team's offensive scheme, but he did log 47.4% of the minutes at a guard/forward spot and had a relatively efficient 103.8 ORtg, with a shooting efficiency of 54.2...way too high actually, given his offensive rating. If Wanamaker gets his turnovers under control he will contribute in 2010. With the loss of Blair, Fields and Young, there will be chances for Wanamaker to shoot and score. Given his assist rate, steal rate and (especially) defensive rebounding, Wanamaker is too useful in too many wing spots to leave on the bench. With the loss of Dar Tucker, DePaul's Mac Koshwal will get a lot of touches next season as the Blue Demons will look around for scorers to pick up Tucker's %Poss and %Shot. Koshwal is already among the best in the conference for his rebounding, offensive and defensive. Ready or not he will have to take a larger than 20.0% role (a "major contributor" according to Ken Pomeroy's DePaul Team Report) for scoring too next seaon.

And Then There's...
Jeremy Hazell (All Big East 3rd Team), Dominique Jones (All Big East Honorable Mention) and Corey Fisher (All Big East 6th Man) drew honors last season and will have some visibility (and expectations) going into next season. I struggled with the last three or four spots on the list, leaving off Paris Horne (St. John's), Dion Dixon (Cincinnati) and Antonio Pena (Villanova) in favor of Sean Evans (St. John's), Jimmy Butler (Marquette), Brad Wanamaker (Pittsburgh) and Preston Knowles (Louisville). I am operating under the assumption that incoming recruit Lance Stephenson will clear the NCAA (academics and amateur status) and displace Dixon, if not 5 minutes into Fall practice, then earlier. Given the Villanova staff's preference for playing upper classmen over freshmen, Pena ought to get a long look at #4/#5, as Yarou gets up to speed.

Why?...
The St. John's rising junior cohort -- there are six players total among the 22 (rising juniors) I began with -- is well balanced. They share the ball and shooting responsibilities pretty well, with possessions ranging from 23 (Rob Thomas) down to 17 (Malik Boothe), 4 had right around 20% of the possessions. The shot distribution is wider (25.9 down to 13.9), but again there are 4 who take about 20% of the shots when they are on the floor -- balanced enough to make defense a headache. I included DJ Kennedy and Sean Evans in my Ten to Watch. Paris Horne took 26% of the shots in 2009 when he was on the floor. Lack of other options, may have been one reason for his prolific shooting, though his ability to hit 51% of his FGAs inside the arc was most likely the other. If Horne can significantly improve on his 33% conversion rate from beyond the arc (while maintaining his 26% share of the shooting), he will make one of the All-Big East (not to mention my ooops list) teams next March. As of now however I am looking for candidates on the Red Storm squad who are most likely to "grow" their role in the offense, and Horne already takes a large share of it. Justin Burrell and Malik Boothe share a few of the same problems. They both logged a good number of minutes, but each has problems converting their FGAs into FGMs. Combined with high turnover rates (23.7 & 31.8 respectively -- see Pomeroy's St. John's Team Report), that leaves each with low (<100.0) offensive ratings (ORtg). For Burrell there is the additional problem of playing in the low post. St. John's under Norm Roberts has become known for physical play in the paint, and Burrell, with 4.7 fouls per 40 minutes (which goes with his 4.7 fouled per 40 minutes), continues the tradition. Villanova's Dante Cunningham had problems with being effective until he managed to control his fouling problem. The same may hold for Burrell. The "other forward" playing in tandem with Burrell, Sean Evans, made my list largely because he logged better numbers than Burrell. Whether shot efficiency, rebounding, even fouling, Evans posted more efficient numbers. Opponents may foul him less next season if he makes his free throws more consistently (51% is terrible, and very correctable). And if those opponents are less inclined to foul, Evans may convert more of his FGAs. Rob Thomas is the last of the Johnnies I considered. His numbers are good (%Poss -- 23.0; %Shot -- 25.4; ORtg -- 108.8; eFG% -- 51.1), but his minutes are low, especially relative to the other St. John's players in the rotation. Thomas, coming off a red shirt freshman season, logged far more minutes in 2009 than he did in 2008. He will get more in 2010. His numbers, very promising at 28.9% of the time at his position, will will really help the Johnnies if they stand up when his PT is doubled. Dele Coker, St. John's 7th rising junior, logged a modest 22.7% of the playing time at the #5. If the Burrell-Evans tandem continues to improve, Coker may see even less time next season.