Rising Juniors -- Nine to Watch

What We Are Looking For
The Big East Conference made this job a lot more difficult back in 2007 when they increased the size of their season-ending "All-Big East...Team"s from five (the traditional number) to eleven. Toss in the three or so Honorable Mentions, and the number of recognized players goes to 25 or so, up from the 15 - 18 most conferences recognize (three "All" Teams, not including a Freshman/Rookie Team, plus two - three Honorable Mentions). The Big East switched back in 2008-09, giving me another seven to eight players to consider for this list. Using Pomeroy's classification system as a guide, I am scouting the "Role" or "Significant Contributor" player, someone who took about 16%-23% of their team's possessions last season, but could grow into a "Major Contributor" or "Go-to Guy" player over the course of the course of next season -- though most probably won't. Pomeroy discusses growth "probabilities" in "Putting Individual Efficiency into Perspective" over at The Basketball Prospectus back in 2007. One thing about these players is clear -- they tend to push at the upper limit of their growth curve each season.

			On Offense...
Player	Coll	%Min	ORtg	%Poss	%Shots	PPWS
Kevin Jones	WVU	81.2	124.6	18.5	21.5	1.18
Jeff Robinson	Hall	50.1	118.8	19.1	20.9	1.14
Terrence Jennings	LVL	31.6	116.1	18.3	18.6	1.22
Kris Joseph	Cuse	69.6	111.1	19.6	18.4	1.14
Jordan Theodore	Hall	64.5	109.5	19.1	17.7	1.04
Darius Johnson-Odom	MU	73.1	107.0	22.9	24.2	1.16
Yancy Gates	'Nati	62.8	106.9	21.3	22.7	1.07
Augustus Gilchrist	USF	38.1	104.8	25.3	24.6	1.16
Darryl Bryant	WVU	55.0	102.7	23.9	21.4	1.00

The list contains the last member of the Big East's All-Rookie Team from 2009 still in school, Cincinnati's Yancy Gates. Every one else from that team has departed for life in the pros. Gates, whose time with the Bearcats has featured an off-and-on relationship with Head Coach Mick Cronin, found himself, more often than not, the 3^rd last season, and that step back allowed him to trade efficiency for usage, a common trade-off. With seniors Deonta Vaughn and Steven Toyloy graduated, and Lance Stephenson gone in the draft last June, the opportunity to step forward and play a major role in the fate of this team this season is there -- if Gates can stay out of foul trouble (he averaged about 3.8 fouls per 40 minutes last season, per Ken Pomeroy) and maintain or enhance his efficiency even as he takes a larger share of the possessions and shots. The offensively challenged Bearcats (a recurring theme in Coach Cronin's tenure), will have to look to a committee of veteran players, centered on Gates no doubt (and freshman pf Justin Jackson?), to make up for the departed offense. With the spotlight on senior Da'Sean Butler and All Big East Devin Ebanks, more than a few observers missed 6-8 250 lb bfc Kevin Jones, yet he played a crucial role in Coach Huggins' Four Forwards Offense. Though guard-like duties fell to Butler and one of Truck Bryant (see below) or Joe Mazzulla if they were available, Jones proved to be extremely efficient in a just-out-of-the-limelight "Role" player status. Jones was the 3^rd option on offense, but like Gates, two of the bigger options ahead of him last season, Butler and Ebanks, have moved on. Coach Huggins recognized his value, playing Jones a whopping 81% of the time in 2010. Jones' teammate Darryl Bryant should see his possession and shot rates climb this season as well. Bryant, whose effectiveness may have been compromised by personal and health issues in 2010, has the potential to see his role in the offense expand to "Major Contributor" (Poss% 25%-28%) levels, but will have to improve his shot conversion and limit his turnover rate, if he expects to see his efficiency (and playing time) climb. Seton Hall's Jeff Robinson is one of four JUCO/transfers on this list. Times change -- there was a point in time when transfer "stars" were so rare they often drew special attention from the media and coaching staffs. Though he did not qualify for play until the end of the Fall 2009 Semester, Robinson was so effective during the conference portion of the Hall's schedule that he sent starter Robert Mitchell to the bench. Robinson, along with teammates Herb Pope (also a transfer) & Jeremy Hazell, flirted briefly with the NBA draft, but (all) decided to return to South Orange for another season. Recruited by departed coach Bobby Gonzalez, Robinson is a 'tweener, who has the size of a #2/#3 with the skill set of a slasher. He will see even more floor time this season if his defensive rebounding matched his offensive board work (see below). Robinson's teammate and fellow "Watch List"er Jordan Theodore should see a larger role in the offense now that Eugene Harvey and Keon Lawrence have moved on. Theodore has much the same conversion deficiency as Truck Bryant, but without the turnovers and other baggage Bryant may carry.

			Four Factors...
						FTA
Player	Coll	%Min	eFG%	OR%	TO%	FGA
Kevin Jones	WVU	81.2	57.6	12.0	10.9	28.5
Jeff Robinson	Hall	50.1	54.3	9.2	8.5	35.0
Terrence Jennings	'Ville	31.6	61.7	13.6	17.4	34.8
Kris Joseph	Cuse	69.6	50.8	7.7	18.2	59.8
Jordan Theodore	Hall	64.5	47.5	3.0	16.2	37.8
Darius Johnson-Odom	MU	73.1	56.4	2.0	18.1	28.7
Yancy Gates	'Nati	62.8	52.2	11.0	15.1	30.3
Augustus Gilchrist	USF	38.1	52.4	9.3	20.0	54.5
Darryl Bryant	WVU	55.0	42.4	2.7	21.6	56.0

A summer ago Coach Rick Pitino tabbed Terrence Jennings "the key" to Cardinal success in 2010. Though he brought energy to the line-up, Jennings was unable to develop a tandem playing relationship with Samardo Samuels, and found himself behind the more heralded bfc in the rotation. Though Jennings offered efficient scoring and a dominant rebounding presence, especially on the offensive boards, he did not establish much more than a "role" presence on offense. Sam-Sam moved on to the NBA this past June, and ready or not, he has passed the low post baton onto Jennings. Pomeroy's 50% confidence interval suggests Jennings should grow into a "Major Contributor" role this season (in the range of 21%-24% of the possessions/shots), but given the personnel loss, should Jennings blow up, a "Significant Contributor" role, something just north of 25% is possible. As a high-end "Role Player", Jennings has shown he can be very efficient (111.8-116.1); if he can maintain his efficiency level while expanding his role in the offense, he will definitely make an All-Big East Team or two. Then if he is around in the summer of 2011, I will not be able to include him on my Rising Seniors "Watch" List. Kris Joseph is yet another example of how team work was so successful for Syracuse last season. Distribution -- of possessions and shots among the players on the floor -- was atypical for a F1 team, but extremely effective for the Orange. Joseph's Poss% and Shot% put him at the upper edge of "Role Player". Johnson, Rautins and Onuaku have moved on, and given Kris' growth in role and efficiency over the past two seasons, he is on track to become a "Major Contributor" next season. Usage growth has gone hand-in-hand with improvement of efficiency, a good sign for Joseph and Syracuse in 2011.

		Miscellaneous...
Player	Coll	Ast%	DR%	Blk%	Stl%
Kevin Jones	WVU	7.2	13.0	3.1	1.1
Jeff Robinson	Hall	3.4	12.9	2.1	1.4
Terrence Jennings	'Ville	5.8	15.3	10.2	2.5
Kris Joseph	Cuse	10.2	13.7	1.6	2.8
Jordan Theodore	Hall	22.4	6.4	0.9	3.2
Darius Johnson-Odom	MU	17.0	9.2	0.6	1.8
Yancy Gates/td>	'Nati	7.4	15.2	3.7	1.3
Augustus Gilchrist	USF	4.2	14.6	3.4	0.5
Darryl Bryant	WVU	25.2	7.7	0.1	1.8

The log-jam in Marquette's back court going into the 2009-10 season was big enough to convince senior Maurice Acker to forego his spot on the roster and concentrate on completing his studies. With two transfers (one a returning native son), a true, and much heralded, local freshman and second returning senior combo guard, it was easy to see why Ackers thought to stand aside. I had to wonder where a second promising transfer, Darius Johnson-Odom, would fit. Preseason injuries to Cadougan (who later returned to play 12 games at the end of the season) and Johnson-Odom were enough to bring Acker back to the squad where he had a very good senior campaign (ranked #1 in conference for assist-to-turnover ratio and #1 for 3FGM%). A quickly recovered Johnson-Odom completed the accidental back court, becoming a fixture alongside a combination of Acker, Cubillan and/or Buycks. He proved to be a good combo guard, sliding over to the off guard where could find his shot (eFG% -- 56.4%) both inside and outside (ranked #7 in conference for 3 pointers made) when Acker manned the #1, and then over to the lead guard spot when Cubillan or Buycks came in. Johnson-Odom had a respectable (per Ken Pomeroy), though not Top 500 assist rate, suggesting he will move back and forth in the Buzz Williams' back court again this season. Normally I cut off candidates at about the 40% Mins line, but (like Louisville's Terrence Jennings...) Augustus Gilchrist made an good argument for setting that guideline aside. Gus completed his first year in Tampa by showing the Bulls' faithful that he could be a dominant (though inefficient) front court presence when he saw the court. Efficiency, under the right circumstances, could be improved, so 2010 held serious promise for the Bulls and Gilchrist. An early December ankle sprain sidelined him until mid-February. He returned to help the Bulls close out their Big East regular season with a four game winning streak. Many assumed the 6-10 235 pound player would man the low post, but he seems to want to play more on the perimeter than the low blocks. Not a dominant defensive rebounder, Gus has shown he can block a shot when needed and dominate on the offensive boards. Over the past two seasons South Florida fans have seen enough to be excited about Gilchrist's potential. He made significant strides in shot and possession-to-point efficiency. If the big guy can manage to log an entire season with the Tampa school, his expected possession and shot rates this season could well land him in "Major Contributor" role in the Bulls' offense. With Jones departed for the NBA, and a number of new guards coming in to replenish Coach Heath's severely depleted back court, Gilchrist should become an "early and often" offensive option.

What About...?
DePaul's Devin Hill and Jeremiah Kelly were too inefficient with their shots last season, logging eFG%s in the low 40s. Greg Monroe's exit leaves a lot of shots and possessions to divvy up among the remaining (and entering) Hoyas. But Henry Sims, who entered as a freshman with Monroe (and was by some, better regarded), who saw his sophomore minutes diminish relative to his freshman season, would seem to be a poor candidate for a significant portion of those possessions/shots. His possession rate, 16%, may have grown modestly over his freshman rate (14.5), but there is a small probability that more than another 4%-5% will come his way (assuming he gets more minutes). Jason Clark, another Hoya who may potentially benefit (possessions and shots) from Greg Monroe's good fortune, made the "Freshmen Watch" list last August, and did increase his efficiency. But his role, as measured by possessions and shots, did not grow at all. Coach Thompson did not, even with a dominant low post presence like Monroe, experiment much with a rotation that put three under 6-5 guards on the floor at the same time. Lacking Monroe, I have to think Coach Thompson would be even less inclined to give that line-up extended run this season.

Hits and Misses...Last Season's "Rising Juniors"
Jimmy Butler and Austin Freeman drew "All-Big East"-level recognition (an Honorable Mention & 2^nd Team) and so are disqualified from consideration this off season -- remember we are looking for the guys just off the radar (congratulations to both). DePaul's Mac Koshwal declared for the draft again last April, went undrafted, but played for the Pistons in the NBA Summer League. Pitt's Brad Wanamaker, St. John's DJ Kennedy and Syracuse's Rick Jackson saw their efficiency and roles improve over the course of the 2010 season. For Wanamaker and Jackson, the efficiency improvement was good, but the growth in roles was comparatively small. Given Syracuse's relatively even distribution of touches and shots expect to see Jackon's role grow (modestly probably) again this season. Kennedy's role grew considerably, bordering on "Go-to Guy"-level possessions. Yet the rising senior drew no accolades from the conference. So I put him back on the Watch List (Rising Seniors) again this season. Louisville's Preston Knowles saw his role grow (possessions went from 16.9% to 21.9%), but his efficiency diminished (112.9 to 103.2), a more common phenomena than the both move in the same direction. Corey Stokes, Sean Evans and Marshon Brooks saw their roles remain about the same, while their efficiencies either declined (Evans) or increase (Stokes and Brooks). Brooks, like Kennedy, is pulling down near "Go-to Guy"-level possession and shot rates, so (like Kennedy) I put him back on the watch list. Stokes on the other hand drew middling "Role Player"-level possessions and shots in 2010, much as he had in 2009. There is a ceiling in the low 20s, but if he is going much higher, he will have to buck the trend.

Watch Lists by Class

Rising Seniors

Guest Contributor Ray Floriani: An All-Star Night at Hamilton Park

by Ray Floriani

JERSEY CITY, NJ - On Monday the Hamilton Park all stars defeated the Dukes basketball club of the Netherlands 68-63 in the Hamilton Park Summer All Star Classic.

Women's college official Nick Borwn and Brian O'Connell
huddle before the tip-off to review a few final points

The game was four ten minutes quarters stopping the last two minutes of each half on whistles. The only other stoppages were on free throw attempts. The numbers...

Scoring by quarter...
	Quarter
	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	Final
U20 Dukes	13	8	23	19	63
HP All-Stars	22	12	17	17	68

A building block for possession-based analysis.

Possessions by quarter...
	Quarter
	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	Final
U20 Dukes	17	15	18	20	70
HP All-Stars	17	16	18	19	70

The Dukes (on the right) exchange gifts with the Hamilton Park All-Stars
before the contest.

Final Points Per Possession (PPP)
	PPP
U20 Dukes	0.90
HP All-Stars	0.97

Observations:
The Dukes basketball club is a strong contingent of U20 players from the Netherlands. After the loss here the Dukes faced St. Anthony’s the next night and lost a very competitive contest. They finished 1-5 on their tour of the New York area but were in every game.

I thought the Hamilton Park team ran a lot of nice offense featuring screening, good movement and the willingness to make the extra pass. Surprised to hear from coach Ben Gamble (St. Anthony’s assistant who ran the team) that the All-Stars did not have a single practice together. In fact Gamble attributed to slow starts in the third and fourth quarter when the Dukes made their runs, as attributed to "...running too many set plays and not just letting them get out and play.".

The Dukes coach Weird Goedee said prior to the game that his club saw a lot of zone defenses on the trip and did not have great success against them. Little surprised given that European teams are known for their skilled perimeter shooters. On the flip side teams from ‘across the pond’ are known for their effective ball screening so the zones were used to combat that. Provided no one was on fire from beyond the arc.

Goedee also noted his team was having trouble playing outdoors. No excuse but in the Netherlands he observed, "...all of our practices and games are indoors.". The Dukes coach said that in the three (of the first four) games outside his team struggled offensively. Probably from not being used to the greater depth perception in shooting from the perimeter on an outdoor court.

The Dukes’ Kadeem Pantophet, a 6-7 forward, paced all scorers with 18 points. Max Franken, a 6-0 guard added 13. Lucky Jones, a St.Anthony’s forward led Hamilton Park with 15 points while Marist guard Marvin Williams contributed 13.

The Dukes showed a lot of poise. Despite being down double digit’s the first half they didn’t panic, continued to execute their game plan and took a lead late in the contest. Hamilton Park then regrouped to seal the verdict. Hamilton Park was effective penetrating and using their quickness to force turnovers on the defensive end. "We threw the ball in the ocean," was the way Goedee termed his club’s turnover troubles. The Dukes, beside their aforementioned poise, did hit a few timely perimeter shots and were effective screening as Hamilton Park stayed man to man.

Cutting turnovers was key to the Dukes comeback. The first 11 possessions of the third quarter they did not turn the ball over and trimmed a 13 point deficit to a one possession (down 3) game. For the game the Dukes had 16 turnovers but ten came prior to the half. Hamilton Park had 11. The TO rates:

	TO%
U20 Dukes	23.0
HP All-Stars	16.0

As noted many times (here on VBTN and elsewhere) a TO rate under 20% is very good. Hamilton Park’s mark was outstanding given they did not get a chance to practice and all star games tend to be a little more uptempo.

Faces in the Crowd
Among those in attendance was Sean Couch, a former Columbia standout and assistant who is an editor for Bounce Magazine. Also, a familiar face and former Hamilton Park All-Star, Dominic Cheek of Villanova, stopped by to catch the action.

The top notch scoring table of Regina (l) and Randy
work on the post game report.

Dove Entrails and Tea Leaves; Returning Minutes and Pythagoras

Looking Ahead by Looking Back
The internet is rife with early looks at the mid and high major conferences the past few weeks. Whether a conference-wide report card or a tightly focused piece, just about every site is running some variation of these middle of the off season reports. Academic reports may still be out, and there is always the what-we-don't-know elements that will no doubt come up in the next 2½ months, but I thought, given the rosters across the Big East have remained stable after the NBA draft rush, this might be a good time to see where each the conference's teams fall in the Pythagorean Winning Percentage/Returning Minutes quadrant. The Pythagorean Winning Percentage was employed as an analytic tool by a number of bloggers in the runnup to the 2010 season with varying degrees of success. The Vegas Watch guys (the previous linked article) kind of winged it after running the numbers, I used a slightly different approach by pulling the Pythagorean Winning Percentage (PWP) as computed by Ken Pomeroy, deriving the conference-wide average for PWP and returning minutes, and mapping the teams into one of four quadrants according to...

Pythagorean Winning Percentage: Below Average Returning Minutes: Above Average	Pythagorean Winning Percentage: Above Average Returning Minutes: Above Average
Pythagorean Winning Percentage: Below Average Returning Minutes: Below Average	Pythagorean Winning Percentage: Above Average Returning Minutes: Below Average

The method was a useful, but not perfect predictor for the 2010 season. For the curious, click here to see the chart. [Note -- that chart was current through early August of 2009. After I posted the analysis, Rutgers dismissed Cory Chandler, and removing his 2009 contributions from Rutgers' list of returning minutes remapped the Scarlet Knights into the red quadrant. West Virginia reinstated suspended guards Joe Mazzulla and Truck Bryant before the beginning of Fall Practice. The addition of the two guards' 2009 contributions repositioned West Virginia farther "into the green", reinforcing perceptions that the Mountaineers would be one of the co-favorites to win the conference in 2010.]
Of the three squads which mapped into the "green" quadrant (Above Average PWP, Ret Mins) two, Georgetown and West Virginia, logged better 2010 conference records than 2009, posting a net gain of 6 wins. Villanova, the third "green" team, posted the same record record (13-5) and finished #4 again. One team in the "red" quadrant (Providence) took a giant step back in 2010 (4-14) from their 2009 (10-8) record, while the other -- Rutgers -- netted two more wins and moved up one spot (#15 to #14) in the conference standings, sidestepping a crashing Providence. The quadrants going into the 2011 season:

The conference average for returning minutes is up slightly over last season (58.3% to 62%), as is the PWP (80.9% to 82%); I suspect the the 2011 edition of the Big East will be a bit tougher than the 2010 edition, whether the 2011 Aerials will show a different, more "green or red" quadrant distribution...take with a grain of salt. My "analysis" of last season's chart was laughably off target (apologies in particular to Marquette, Syracuse and Pittsburgh fans) in a number of respects. Since 2009, only Notre Dame has seriously disappointed as a "green" quadrant team. Some went on to very good seasons while others maintained status quo (albeit the top of the conference). Knowing that the Hoyas are faced with the challenge of replacing Greg Monroe, I still believe the 2011 team will improve over their 10-8 2010 record. Everybody in the basketball universe is looking at Pittsburgh and Villanova to square off for the conference title -- heck the conference office matched those two in a mirror series this season, even they believe this will be The Year of the Cat. Of course last season many were predicting a similar two team shootout between Villanova and West Virginia...except for a few fans in upper New York State. Among the "red" quadrant teams, I think if South Florida can log a 9-9 record in 2011 Coach Heath should have a strong bid for Conference Coach of the Year. It has been one very rough off season for Providence. Compounding the losses of Greedy Peterson, dismissed from the team and off to Turkey and the pros, and Assistant Coach Pat Skerry, who joined Jamie Dixon's staff in Pittsburgh (the rich get richer...), was the defection of two well regarded recruits. The last thing a team that is replacing veterans needs is a loss of an impact player (Peterson) and an "air bubble" in the recruiting pipeline. Absent another "falling body" program, next season could be another year in the wilderness for the Friar faithful. Note that the Friars' are returning a higher percentage of minutes next season (even without Greedy), but it is still below the conference average.

The Hand & Bidding -- Play, or Defend?
The other 10 teams map (4-6) into the remaining two quadrants, either "yellow" (low PWP, high minutes) or "blue" (high PWP, low minutes). The opposing characteristics make for an interesting debate -- would you rather your team have veterans who are coming off of a losing season, or have a team that won games last season, but has a lot of new faces (because of departures) this season? The 2010 season did not provide an unambiguous answer. Of the five teams in the "yellow" quadrant (St. John's, South Florida, Cincinnati, DePaul and Seton Hall) going into the 2010 season, three (DePaul, Seton Hall and South Florida) posted, to varying degrees, better records, one (St. John's) was status quo ante and one (Cincinnati) gave back a win. Three of those teams replaced their coaches during or after the season. Of the six "blue" quadrant teams going into 2010, Connecticut and Louisville, faced significant off-the-court distractions and gave back a total of 11 conference wins over their 2009 results. Pittsburgh was status quo ante (13-5 both seasons). Marquette gave back a win, but finished #5 again. And Syracuse, Coach Boeheim having jettisoned a few distractions, netted four wins over their 2009 record, taking the regular season title and a #1 seed in the Dance, in the process.

Looking for Respect
All four of the teams in the yellow quarter of the universe going into the 2011 season are repeaters from last season. Maybe expectations run higher, given the higher-than-average returning minutes. Three of these teams have new coaches, so maybe things can change. Dan Hanner might be closer to the truth than I realized, maybe Cincinnati's Mick Cronin should be nervous. What are realistic expectations for these three new coaches? Looking at Big East history (post 2006 expansion), cautious optimism might be in order, the sample is small, but the example good. Of the seven coaching changes 2006-2009, only Providence in 2009 (Davis' first season) matches the yellow quadrant profile for DePaul, Seton Hall and St. John's in 2010. All three programs (like Providence in 2008) hired a successful veteran coach. Keno Davis coached much the same squad as Tim Welsh the year before (plus a rehabilitated Sharaud Curry) and managed them to a 10-8 record (a net +4 wins over 2008) and an NIT bid in his first season. Of the three, DePaul's Oliver Purnell may have the easiest hurdle to clear -- the Blue Demons won a single conference game in 2010. They were 1-35 in conference play over the past two seasons. While the St. John's squads of the Norm Roberts era tended to have an inverse relationship between winning and returning minutes (when returning minutes were up, wins were down) Red Storm fans have to believe that Coach Lavin, in working to reverse a few other trends, will take care of that trend as well.

On a Roll? Which Way?
If the red and green quadrants are pretty fair predictors for the level of team success in the next season, the yellow and blue quadrants are not. Blue quadrant teams Connecticut, Syracuse, Louisville and Marquette reappear in the blue quadrant, though they had very different conference records. While all return minutes below the conference, Marquette, Connecticut and Syracuse each returns a higher percentage of minutes than they did last season, and if the correlation of returning minutes to wins holds, Coach Williams ought to produce a 2011 improvement over 2010. The same could be said for Coach Calhoun and the Huskies, but though UConn brings back 49.2% of the 2010 minutes, he returns just 38.6% of the points, a nasty scoring gap that mandates the staff retool the offense. The squad's 2010 Shot% was 14.8%, suggesting mostly 3^rd option scorers will have to combine with newcomers to man Connecticut's offense. Kemba Walkers' role will (for good or bad) continue to expand, but Storrs provides a good opportunity for a freshman or slightly overlooked rising sophomore (Coombs-McDaniel?) to have an impact this season, especially if they can turn the Huskies' fortunes around. Coach Boeheim does not (last time I looked...) have another Wesley Johnson-level transfer waiting in the wings. 15-3 is a very high bar to match with about 56% of the Orange minutes returning. Both Louisville and Notre Dame managed winning conference records and have lots of minutes to replace. The bad news for both is that their returning minutes are also fewer than those going into the 2010 season. Coach Pitino's program is showing the cumulative effects of transfers (in and out) and early NBA entry. While much was made about Luke Harangody's influence on Notre Dame's offense, returning points is pretty consistent with returning minutes. Unlike Coach Calhoun, Coach Brey will not have to find a dominant set of scorers. What he will have to replace however, is assists, as the Irish return all of 26.5% of last season's assists. Tory Jackson was criticized for lack of point production, but the senior, along with transfer Ben Hansbrough, was ranked in Ken Pomeroy's Top 500 Assist Leaders. And for an offensive system that thrives on passes in and out of the low post and has featured a long line of catch-and-shoot perimeter scorers, replacing a facilitator like Jackson may be as painful as replacing a low post scorer like Harangody. West Virginia faces a returning minutes decline for the first time in the Bob Huggins Era. The returning points (51.1%) are tolerably close to returning minutes (55.0%). Returning rebounds might be a problem, as overall they are below returning minutes (and points), but the squad, noted for scoring on put-back opportunities developed by offensive rebounding, returns about the same percentage of offensive rebounds (51.7%) as points (51.1%).

Many thanks to Ken Pomeroy for his web site and the wealth of data it provides.

Whaaat? Fisher Scored 105 points...in One Game?

When street ball (and Villanova fan) message boards and Twitter started popping with the story that rising senior guard Corey Fisher, home playing some summer ball in the Watson Tourney Summer League, had scored 105 points in a single 40 minute game earlier Saturday (August 7) night, I started looking around for "official" confirmation. Through 2am Sunday I could find nothing, but a Dime Magazine column (scroll to the bottom) is about as good as I am going to get at this point, so I'm running with it. Without knowing how many shots he took calculating his efficiency is impossible. What I have learned, largely from message boards, etc. is that Fish hit 23 3FGAs (that's 69 points right there), and that he recorded 72 of his 105 points in the second half. The original threads tended to veer towards tales of DaJuan Wagner, but my immediate thought was how stories of his dunk over the King put some wind into Jordan Crawford's (and Xavier's) sails going into last season. Jose Calderon, the Spanish Harlem guard who drew the ill-fated assignment to guard Fish is no King James, and summer league refs tend to be travel and palming tolerant (a bugaboo that has plagued Fisher since his freshman days...maybe the Big East refs will ease up a bit on him this season...), 105 points in 40 minutes comes out to 2.5 points per minute. If he did score 72 points in the second half, he was ringing them up at a 3.6 point per minute rate. Wow.

Update 08/14/2010
A Daily News story came out today with a few more details and a good picture of Corey F in his Dyckman Park jersey. Fish will play again tonight at Monsignor Kett Playground, between 10th Avenue and Nagle Avenue, south of Inwood Hill Park in Manhattan, tonight at 8:00pm. Would be interested to know if a larger than usual crowd comes out.

Update 08/13/2010
Fish confirmed his performance in an interview with ESPN's Dana O'Neil this afternoon. The rising senior said that riding a wave of crowd encouragement, he scored 72 points through the first three quarters, but did not realize he was approaching 100 points until he got to the line near the end of the game. By then the crowd was in a frenzy every time he had the ball. If Corey F had a hard time keeping track of the score, the 6-0 guard seemed to recognize that the GymRatsNYC threw every defense under the sun at him, double teams, a box-and-one and zones (to cut down on those pesky threes no doubt), to stop him. DPO also reports that in addition to blowing by Kenny Satterfield's 63 point Watson Summer League record, Fish also took down Fly Williams' 32 year old 100 point IS8 record on his Night of Nights. Fish will play again at Watson-Gleason on Saturday.

Update 8/10/2010
Over the past 48 hours more blogs have begun to pick up on the story, and versions, some more complete, others, repeating the bare elements (sometimes incorrectly) that were circulated over the weekend. A rumored video still has not surfaced, and as of yesterday Corey Fisher has not responded to requests to comment. With ESPN blogger Eamonn Brennan noting the performance with a question earlier today (clever way to relate the known facts of a story without having to confirm or deny, Eamon), can the MSM be far behind? Jeff Eisenberg of The Dagger has manged to tease a few more facts from Lionel Saunders (Watson Summer League Director), Kenneth Stevens (eyewitness) and BangLee Takenouchi (captain of the GymRatsNYC -- the team Fisher's squad beat). New information (from The Dagger):
1. The game was played Saturday night at the Watson Gleason Playground against the GymRatsNYC, a semi-pro club that competes in summer street ball tournaments in New York City.
2. A fan had prompted Fisher to take a run at former Cincinnati Bearcat Kenny Saterfield's 63 point record. A GymRatNYC player also scored 60.
3. Fish had 56 points in the first half, and despite a steady diet of double and triple teams scored another 49 points through the end of the game.
4. With about 75 points to his credit, Fisher's teammates continued to feed him, curious to see how far he could go.
5. As his arms tired, Fish switched to lane drives to continue scoring (a move familiar to Villanova fans), which brought contact and fouls.
6. Fish scored point 100 with inside of a minute to go. He garnered a steal and was fouled (again) and dropped two at the line. He then hit a last 3 at the end of the game to push the tally to 105.

Ireland 2010 -- Pittsburgh Downs English Nationa Team 82-69

The England National Team
Pittsburgh closed out it's 2010 Ireland Tour with an 82-69 win over the England National Team at the Odyssey Arena in Belfast, Northern Ireland, on Saturday evening. The win marks a perfect 6-0 record for the Panthers who will return to the USA on Sunday. The Odessey Arena and Ireland Basketball publicized the two day, four game event as the 2010 Belfast International Basketball Classic, with the Pittsburgh squad described as the "NCAA USA Powerhouse" Pittsburgh University Panthers" billed as the headliner. Other teams participating included the Melbourne Tigers and the England National Team, Pitts' two opponents, with the Scottish National Team rounding out the field. Pitt's official athletic website carries wire story game recap which highlights some of the play-by-play, along with a scoring summary. The official boxscore (.pdf format) is also posted on the site. The scoring by quarters...

	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	Total
Pittsburgh	25	27	16	14	82
England National Team	5	18	14	32	69

The Panthers decisively won the first quarter 25-5, jumping out to a 11-3 lead at the halfway mark of the quarter, cruising to the finish with a 14-2 run. England was stone cold from the field, converting at an 11.8% rate (2-17, 0-5, 2-12). Pitt continued their domination through the second quarter, 27-18, taking a 29 point lead (52-23) into the half. The English however, were beginning to find their range, improving their conversion rate to 45% (5-11, 1-3, 4-8). Having gathered themselves, England came out for the last two quarters and gave the Panthers a more competitive game. The Panthers found the English played them nearly even in the third quarter (16-14), the score close because the Panthers had difficulty converting their field goal attempts (6-22, 2-6, 4-16). The England Team shot at about the same accuracy as the second quarter (40% vs 45%), but failed to shave anything off of the Panthers' lead because Pittsburgh controlled the boards at both ends of the floor, simply cutting off second chance opportunities under England's basket, while (through offensive boards) giving themselves multiple opportunities to score. If the Panthers thought they could turn on the auto-pilot and cruise home, they were mistaken. Team England put on a furious, 32-14 blitz to cut the Panthers' edge to 13 before the final whistle. Taking three of the game's quarters, Pitt upped their "won quarter" mark to 20, taking 20 of the 24 quarters of basketball played on the tour. The 13 point margin of victory was the closest (for Pittsburgh) of the Tour. This game was played for just over 70 possessions (70.1), closer to Pittsburgh's comfort zone (60-65 roughly) of last season. The efficiencies and Oliver's four factors:

						FTA
	Pace	ORtg	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FGA	PPWS
Pittsburgh	70.1	117.0	42.7	10.0	47.9	18.3	0.92
England National Team		98.4	46.7	17.1	33.3	35.0	0.99

A glance at the Offensive Rating, 117.0, would leave the incurious reader with the impression this game was carried on an offensive outburst from Pitt, typical of the four games played in the south of Ireland. A closer look at the shooting and the confusion begins...a 42.7 eFG% is nothing to write home about, a lot of missed FGAs. A look over to the PPWS seems to confirm this was an off shooting night for the Panthers. Comparing Pitts' eFG% and PPWS to England's however should trigger a good round of head scratching. England shot better?! How did Pitt win (and by 13 points no less)? For the Panthers, a significant difference in turnovers was extremely helpful. In the 70 (or so) possession game, Pitt lost the ball only seven time, while England turned it over 12 times. Pitt converted possessions efficiently despite poor shooting by rebounding their misses, an awful lot of their misses. They were able to take that second (and third) shot with having the additional attempt tallied as a separate possession. A move very similar to the Georgetown teams in 2008. In the contest for 40 of those missed FGAs, Pitt won 15 times (typical would be about 10-12. More opportunities to score. The English had the best offensive night of any team facing Pitt in Ireland.

Notes
1. For the fifth straight game Coach Dixon used his entire squad, as all 14 players saw playing time. Continuing a trend initiated in virtually the second game of the tour, Coach Dixon opted to scramble his starting lineup. Tonight the back court consisted of rising junior Travon Woodall and rising senior Bradley Wannamaker. Freshman low post player JJ Richardson anchored the center, while rising junior Nasir Robinson and freshman Lamar Patterson played the #3 and #4 respectively.
2. The Woodall-Wannamaker tandem was effective logging a combined nine assists against a single turnover. Rising junior point Ashton Gibbs also posted five assists.
3. All 14 players took at least one FGA, and 12 managed to post at least a point. Gibbs, Woodall and redshirt freshman Talib Zanna co-tied with the team-high of 13 points. Those three were the only double digit scorers for Pittsburgh.
4. Only Dante Taylor picked up as many as four personals.

Next
Travel back to Dublin and take another day to tour the sights. The team will return to the USA Monday, August 9.

Ireland 2010 -- Panthers Maul Tigers 92-76, to Go 5-0

The Melbourne Tigers
The Panthers beat the Tigers of Melbourne, Australia, 92-76 at the Odyssey Arena in Belfast, Northern Ireland, running their string on the Ireland Tour to 5-0. The Melbourne Tigers, a four time champion in the Australian Premier (professional) league played a front line that featured 7-0 Utah graduate Luke Nevil and several 6-8 players who gave Pittsburgh all they could handle through the first two quarters. The Tigers, as physical as they were tall, put bodies on the younger Panthers in a contest that on paper resembled a Big East game. In all 50 fouls, including two technical fouls, one apiece assessed to each team, were called over the course of four quarters. Pittsburgh squad was paced by rising seniors Gilbert Brown and Ashton Gibbs, who scored 15 points apiece. Pitt's official athletic website carries wire story game recap which highlights some of the play-by-play, and the official boxscore which lacks player minutes. The scoring by quarters...

	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	Total
Pittsburgh	25	20	28	19	92
Melbourne Tigers	18	28	9	20	76

The Panthers upped their "won quarter" mark to 14, and took a seven point lead into the second quarter when the Tigers struck back, launching a 27 point outburst in the last 7:58 of the second quarter to outscore Pitt by 10, 27-17, and take a one point lead into the half. In another first for this tour, the Pittsburgh squad found itself on the underside of the score at the end of a quarter. Using their patented third quarter blitz, Pitt dropped a 28-9 scoring blitz of it's own on Melbourne, retook the lead, and established a working lead going into the game's remaining quarter. With a 19 point lead in hand, the Panthers "lost" the fourth quarter by a single point, 19-20, marking that as only the third quarter (out of 20) that Pitt failed to win. 19-20, to close out the game. This game was played for just under 80 possessions (79.8), became the second highest possession game on the tour so far. The efficiencies and Oliver's four factors:

						FTA
	Pace	ORtg	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FGA	PPWS
Pittsburgh	79.8	115.3	51.3	18.8	40.0	34.7	1.05
Melbourne Tigers		95.3	49.2	12.5	21.3	55.9	1.02

A review of the score hints the game was not close (a 16 point margin of victory for Pitt), but a quick comparison of each team's shot efficiency (eFG% and PPWS) (51.3 vs 49.2 and 1.05 vs 1.02) say the game was closer than the score suggests. Checking the free throw (FTA/FGA) and turnover (TO%) rates, and one might think the Panthers were on the short end of this score. The game changer, the most critical factor, it turns out, was the rebounding. The margin on offense in particular (40.0 vs 21.3) allowed Pittsburgh multiple scoring opportunities on each possession, while denying Melbourne the same. A check on the raw numbers from the box score confirms, Pittsburgh took 75 FGAs to Melbourne's 59. The Panthers used that 16 FGA differential to take eight more two point attempts and eight more three point attempts than the Tigers. Both teams may have had nearly the same conversion rate for 3FGAs (6-14 vs 9-22), but more rebounds translated into more attempts and more conversions. Pitt enjoyed a similar conversion bulge for two pointers, 25 vs 20, and that differential was enough to compensate for the additional free throws that the Australians were able to take.

Notes
1. For the fourth straight game Coach Dixon used his entire squad, going 14 deep, but used a starting line-up that may well start the first game of this season. Tonight the back court consisted of rising junior Ashton Gibbs and rising senior Bradley Wanamaker. Rising junior Gary McGhee anchored the center, while rising senior Gil Brown and red shirt freshman Talib Zanna played the #3 and #4 respectively.
2. The Gibbs-Wanamaker tandem was effective logging eight assists against four turnovers, but it was the rising senior Gilbert Brown, looking more like a point forward with each game, who dished a game-high six assists against zero turnovers. Both Wanamaker and Gibbs scored double-digit points, Gibbs (along with Gilbert Brown) logging a team-high 15 points. But both guards required volume shooting to get their numbers, going a combined 9-24 (3-12, 6-12) and 4-5 to post their combined 25 points. Off guard and point back up Travon Woodall shot a very efficient 75% eFG%, going 5-8 (2-3, 3-5) from the field while passing out four assists (versus two turnovers).
3. 11 of the 14 players who saw action scored points, six posting double-digit points. Two of the three who did not score (all freshmen) did not take an FGA.
4. Four Panthers, all front court players, were tagged with four fouls. There were no DQ's recorded.
5. Eric Devondorf, late of Syracuse University and recent signee to the Melbourne Tigers, did not play. Indeed, the former Orange wing was not in the city at all.

Next
The English National Team will be Pitt's last opponent of the 2010 Ireland Tour. The two teams face-off Saturday at 5:00 (Ireland Time) in the Odyssey Arena, Belfast. The team will return to the USA Sunday, August 8.

Guest Contributor Ray Floriani: Charting Possessions in Hamilton Park

by Ray Floriani

JERSEY CITY, NJ - High school basketball is a relatively uncharted area in the realm of tempo free analysis. One of the reasons is the lack of post game box scores at most games. The final stats provided by trained crews on the college level are virtually non-existent in high school. A post game box that counts field goals, free throws (made and missed) and total points for a team and individual is about it. Thinking about it , the tempo free studies would be very valuable at the high school level where smaller schools may not have the advantages of advance scouting and/or studying tape. Tempo free stats would give a coach a close look at how they are playing and what needs to be addressed. The recording of these stats, however, would have to be done during the game by an assistant or student statistician. On Wednesday two games at the Hamilton Park Summer League were of interest. Actually the first was better on paper but the second gave a good example of tempo free usage. The Hamilton Park Summer League is very competitive with high school and a few AAU teams. The league is on the outdoor courts at Hamilton Park. To avoid rain outs if there is a chance of rain, director Pat Devaney moves the games indoors. Tonight we were in Middle School 7 in Jersey City. And, yes, it was air conditioned. Usually running the court in a striped shirt as an official but tonight was a night off and opportunity to employ another role. During both games I charted every possession and broke it down by quarters. The results of game one between St.Anthony’s (yes that one) and the Game Seven Sharks. The latter is an AAU team of mostly Middletown (NJ) North High School players. Middletown is based in the Shore area and is a good program.The Hamilton Park games are four eight minute quarters. The clock runs except on free throws and the last two minutes of each half (stopping on all whistles). This could effect the possessions total slightly. On the other hand, the teams are not in regular practices so while there is virtually no ‘run and gun’ there is a tendency for a possession to end a little quicker , or one pass less, in the Summer. The results by quarter:

	Quarter
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	Final
St.Anthony	10	15	7	14	46
Sharks	7	14	6	13	40

The possessions by quarter:

	Quarter				Total
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	Poss.
St. Anthony	12	16	11	13	52
Sharks	13	15	12	14	54

The final Points Per Possession (PPP) calculation:

	Final
	PPP
St. Anthony’s	0.89
Sharks	0.74

For readability, that equals an offensive efficiency (PPP * 100) of 89 for St. Anthony’s and 74 for the Sharks. Key factors: Looking at college team numbers the 89 offensive efficiency posted by the Friars does not seem great. But when your defensive efficiency is 74, that is a +15 efficiency margin (offense minus defense). A great number on any level. The possession by possession breakdown shows the Sharks were guilty of 16 turnovers. That is a TO percentage of 27%. Over 20% is considered high. When you turn it over nearly one of every three possessions against an opportunistic club like St.Anthony’s, your chances of winning are greatly diminished. Offensive rebounding extended several St.Anthony possessions. The Friars have size up front and their frontcourt players, in the 6’6" to 6’8" range are quick jumpers who keep the ball alive for second and third efforts. Jason Huelbig and Mike Aaman paced the Sharks with 11 points each. The Friars had balanced scoring led by Ty Williams with 14 points. Rashad Andrews added 9 and Jerome Frink and Matt Johnson had 8 each.

The second game between St. Anthony’s JV and Union High School really illustrated the need for teams to be aware of tempo free stats. St. Anthony’s JV is talented and can play with many varsity teams. On the flip side, there are many nights a varsity team might not have its full compliment of players.

	Quarter
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	Final
Union	8	11	16	9	44
St.Anthony(JV)	12	7	7	5	31

Possessions for this game:

Quarters				Final
1st	2nd	3rd	4th	PPP
13	12	11	10	46

Points per possession converted to offensive efficiency:

	Off.
	Eff.
Union	96
St.Anthony JV	67

St. Anthony’s jumped to a nine point first half lead. The JV Friars were dictating pace and turning it into a full court affair. The quarterly possessions bear this out. Union has athleticism but prefers to run half court sets, utilize a number of passes and good player movement. As the game wore on the possessions show the pace slowed more into Union’s pace. As a result they had an outstanding second half.

Having these tempo free numbers is a great way to illustrate to your kids how important it is to execute at the pace your team is best suited for. In the end, Union prevailed because their varsity experience allowed them to dictate the game, change its pace and eventually its outcome.

Often the case in the Summer, an assistant will run the team as the head coach observes. Pictured is St. Anthony assistant Scott Ruzak going over a few things during a time out in the first contest.

St. Anthony's Assistant Coach Scott Ruzak
reviews the last sequence during a timeout

Todd Palmer, who played at Notre Dame, coached the St.Anthony JV. We got to discuss Notre Dame in particular and the Big East days of not too long ago prior to his contest.

Bob Hurley was in the stands for the first game and most of the nightcap. Seated to Hurley’s left is St.Anthony freshman coach Jerry Malloy. Hurley was caught here speaking with several of the Shark players. Even in losing they were excited to meet the coaching legend, who gave them words of advice and encouragement.

Coach Hurley speaks with Shark
players between games

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