2010-11 Preview -- South Florida Bulls

Too Busy for the Details?
After surging to a 9-9 conference record in 2010, the highest conference win total since joining the Big East in 2006, the Bulls have some rebuilding to do. Coach Stan Heath has to replace an entire back court (typically the strong point of Heath-coached teams). The Bulls bring in a nice mix of 'new' (true freshmen) and 'old' (transfers & JUCOs), but it will take time (more than one season).  Prognosis -- A 4th quartile finish.

3 Years At a Glance
The Bulls' record tracks with returning minutes, suggesting the players under Heath do improve over time. Most of the minutes/points returning come from the front court -- as noted by the (much) higher percentage of returning offensive rebounds than returning three pointers made.

	Returning...
	2011	2010	2009
%Min	42.0	62.9	55.0
%Pts	24.9	65.2	64.4
%FGM	37.9	66.1	55.7
%3FGM	24.8	66.2	66.9
%OReb	60.9	47.5	44.8
%DReb	46.1	57.6	45.1
%TReb	50.8	54.1	45.0

Dominique Jones, currently playing for the Mavericks, took 30% of the Bulls' shots while he was on the floor (and he was on the court a lot, logging over 90% of the off guard minutes in 2010). That is a very large offensive role to replace, especially since a single guard-in-waiting (transfer Anthony Crater) from the 2010 roster returns for 2011. Troubling too given the Bulls' rise in conference standing coincided with a marked improvement in their offense...mostly departed with DoJo (see According to Pomeroy... table below).

	According to Pomeroy...
	2009-10		2008-09		2007-08
	#	Rank	#	Rank	#	Rank
BE Off Eff	103.5	11	93.6	14	98.4	13
BE Def Eff	109.2	12	106.3	10	108.6	14
BE Off eFG%	47.2	14	43.5	16	46.6	14
BE Off FTRate	43.2	1	31.2	8	39.2	4
BE Off TO%	18.8	9	18.6	8	19.6	9
BE Off Reb%	36.1	T7	34.5	8	33.8	7
BE Def eFG%	50.4	13	48.8	6	50.1	10
BE Def Reb%	36.1	11	34.5	11	34.6	12

South Florida's offensive efficiency improved enough in 2010 to lift the Bulls out of the Big East's 4th quartile and into the NIT. The offense looks for points inside the arc (USF scored 57.7% and 24.4% of their points from 2FGAs and FTMs respectively, good for a #33 -- out of 347 -- ranking per Ken Pomeroy) either converting 2FGAs or getting to the free throw line. While offensive rebounding and turnovers have remained constant over the past three seasons, the Bulls converted field goal attempts marginally better in 2010 than 2009, and got to the line more. Defensive rebounding (defense overall actually) continued to be anemic despite the succession of well-regarded low post bigs featured in Bulls' lineups since 2006.

	For the Record...
	2009-10			2008-09			2007-08
	W	L	Pct.	W	L	Pct.	W	L	Pct.
Overall	20	13	0.606	9	22	0.290	12	19	0.387
Big East	9	9	0.500	4	14	0.222	3	15	0.167
Post Season?	NIT Rnd #1			BET Rnd #1			NA

How far back does South Florida slide? The scoring percentages suggest a 2-3 win season, but I suspect Caoch Heath has other plans. The offense will most likely move closer to the basket and balance a bit better between front court and back court scoring.

The Bulls' Nucleus
Coach Stan Heath's biggest task this season will be developing South Florida's reshaped back court, composed largely of entering freshmen, JUCOs, and with a several returning rotation players (Noriega and Crater) into an effective offensive unit. The new elements have to work with the more experienced front court trio of Gus Gilchrist, Jared Famous and Toarlyn Fitzpatrick. Several will have to take up the offensive role assigned to DoJo, there is a plethora of guards (seven in all, in the range of 5-11 to 6-6) to choose from, mostly two or so will collectively cover the points provided by Jones.

On Offense
Player	Min%	Ortg	Poss%	Shot%	eFG%	OR%	PPWS	FTR%
Jarrid Famous	71.4	102.0	20.8	19.4	52.7	12.2	1.11	50.6
Toarlyn Fitzpatrick	54.8	85.5	15.1	13.8	41.0	9.4	0.88	43.6
Augustus Gilchrist	38.1	104.8	25.3	24.6	52.4	9.3	1.16	54.5
Anthony Crater	33.8	80.9	11.5	11.3	38.1	1.6	0.79	25.4

Gilchrist and Dominique Jones were a significant "inside/less inside" threat last season. DoJo maybe gone, but Gilchrist is back. If he can stay healthy, he should have a large and positive impact on the offense, as the #1 or #2 option. The task for Coach Heath is to develop an outside threat and most probably at least one more consistent offensive option. Fitzpatrick had a typical freshman season. He should improve with experience. With offensive rebounding rates in the range of 9.3 to 12.2, all three of the front court players are keepers. Coach Heath should be able to find time for each.

On Defense
Player	Min%	DR%	Ast%	TO%	Stl%	Blk%
Jarrid Famous	71.4	16.9	3.8	20.4	2.2	1.0
Toarlyn Fitzpatrick	54.8	14.0	3.2	23.3	4.4	1.7
Augustus Gilchrist	38.1	14.6	4.2	20.0	3.4	0.5
Anthony Crater	33.8	6.7	13.3	24.9	0.5	2.6

Note the turnover rates for Famouns, Fitzpatrick and Gilchrist -- all were in the range of 20% or more. Cut down on the turnovers alone and each would increase by 5% - 7% on offensive efficiency. Anthony Crater, the Ohio State transfer who accounted for 33.8% of the playing time in a backcourt position last season, will most likely start at pg, though like Famous, Fitzpatrick and Gilchrist, he will have to limit his turnovers to be effective. Other returnees include sophomore deep bench guards Shaun Noriega who logged 68 minutes in 20 games last season and Mike Burwell who logged 92 minutes in 19 games.

Significant Additions
Coach Heath brings in a mix of true freshmen (2), transfers (1) and JUCOs (3); five of the six are guards. Among the freshmen, the coach's own son, 5-11 Jordan Heath, a point guard out of Tampa Prep is a walk-on. The other is 6-0, 200 pound LaVonte Dority of Edwin G. Foreman, Chicago. The last three guards, all JUCOs include 6-0 185 pound Shadrick Haynes, out of Lackawanna College, 6-5 195 pound Hugh Robertson, from Tallahassee CC and (possibly the most intriguing...) Jawanza Poland, a 6-4, 195 off guard who sat last season for Hutchinson CC after transferring in from Cowley College in Wichita, Kansas. Poland has not played organized (collegiate) ball in over 18 monthes. Count him very ready to get things going. Ron Anderson, a 6-8 255 pound bfc transferred in from Kansas State in 2009, has sat his year per the NCAA rules, and will be available at the beginning of this season. Anderson has two years of eligibility remaining.

Explode If...
1. Gilchrist can have a breakout season, but the Bulls will need more to match (or come close to) last season's nine conference wins. Someone from the back court or wing (Haynes? Poland?) will have to combine with a consistent third scoring option if opposing defenses are to be kept off balance. The third option won't have to be the same player each game, but between Famous, Crater, Robertson and Anderson, some combination will most likely have to contribute nine-tem points each game.
2. Find a perimeter game from among the new players. South Florida converted three point attempts at an attrocious 28.3% rate (all play) last season, ranking them #338 out of 347 in Division 1. Gilchrist and Famous should be able to keep defenses honest, but someone has to convert long-range attemtps consistently.
3. Rebounding is an area where significant improvement will translate immediately into more efficient defense. Despite having length and low post mass, the Bulls consistently ranked in the bottom third of the conference for defensive rebounding.


Implode If...
1. The players do not mesh. The back court, JUCOs and true freshmen, were assembled in the monthes after last April. Poland, Haynes, Robertson and Crater have had only fall practice together as a full squad. At the very least the out of conference should be interesting.
2. Off court distractions seem to be an annual recurring theme with the program. While most seem to be silly scrapes resulting from not thinking things through, player-on-player incidents, the type that can destroy team cohesion, have also happened.

Crucial Run/Bellweather Games
The out of conference (OOC) schedule is light on above "The Red Line" opponents, counting a maybe Texas Tech (South Padre Island Invitational, possible second round opponent...) have two. Auburn, visiting Tampa (a home-away agreement perhaps?) is heavy with newcomers, including their coach, and projected by many to finish at the bottom of the SEC Western Division, will probably not help the Bulls' RPI. There are however, a number of below The Red Line opponents who can nick up South Florida's record going into conference play. Chief culprits -- Brigham Young (Mountain West Conference) and Southern Mississippi (Conference USA), both of whom are expected to make the NCAAs in 2011. The Golden Eagles will open the Bulls' season at the Sun Dome, while the Cougars are the Bulls' first round opponent at South Padre Island. A second tier of below-the-Red-Liners includes Colonial Athletic Association members Virginia Commonwealth and James Madison, considered the class of the CAA, traditional rival Central Florida (CUSA, and with a new coach) and possibly West Coast Conference member St. Mary's. The Gaels will most likely not dance in the 2011 post season, but Coach Randy Bennett brings back three starters from the team that ran to the Sweet Sixteen. Sporting a record of 10-3 or better going into their conference opener (a road game against Seton Hall) would be bode well for Bull prospects, but not realistic.

Breaking down the Bulls' 9-9 2010 record, the key was holding serve (6-3) at home, while taking a few road games. Matching that win total may be a stretch without Jones, but if Coach Heath can coax five wins out of the conference schedule, South Florida can escape the fourth quartile for the second consecutive season. Drawing DePaul, Providence and Pittsburgh was definitely a mixed blessing. The Panthers will dominate while the Friars will struggle, so the mirror break will come with DePaul. The Demons will be sitting ducks on the road, but Oliver Purnell should have them playing better at home. Drawing that game late in the season may help USF, especially if they are within striking distance of five (or better wins). The five game stretch from the middle of January to early February should be a good predictor for the season, as that draw contains four winnable games: Providence at home (1/16), Rutgers (1/20, road), a trip to Morgantown (1/23, an improbable win), DePaul (1/27, at home) and closing out at Providence (2/2). If they can win four out of that run the chances of having five wins going into the BET are very good.

Rising Juniors -- Nine to Watch

What We Are Looking For
The Big East Conference made this job a lot more difficult back in 2007 when they increased the size of their season-ending "All-Big East...Team"s from five (the traditional number) to eleven. Toss in the three or so Honorable Mentions, and the number of recognized players goes to 25 or so, up from the 15 - 18 most conferences recognize (three "All" Teams, not including a Freshman/Rookie Team, plus two - three Honorable Mentions). The Big East switched back in 2008-09, giving me another seven to eight players to consider for this list. Using Pomeroy's classification system as a guide, I am scouting the "Role" or "Significant Contributor" player, someone who took about 16%-23% of their team's possessions last season, but could grow into a "Major Contributor" or "Go-to Guy" player over the course of the course of next season -- though most probably won't. Pomeroy discusses growth "probabilities" in "Putting Individual Efficiency into Perspective" over at The Basketball Prospectus back in 2007. One thing about these players is clear -- they tend to push at the upper limit of their growth curve each season.

			On Offense...
Player	Coll	%Min	ORtg	%Poss	%Shots	PPWS
Kevin Jones	WVU	81.2	124.6	18.5	21.5	1.18
Jeff Robinson	Hall	50.1	118.8	19.1	20.9	1.14
Terrence Jennings	LVL	31.6	116.1	18.3	18.6	1.22
Kris Joseph	Cuse	69.6	111.1	19.6	18.4	1.14
Jordan Theodore	Hall	64.5	109.5	19.1	17.7	1.04
Darius Johnson-Odom	MU	73.1	107.0	22.9	24.2	1.16
Yancy Gates	'Nati	62.8	106.9	21.3	22.7	1.07
Augustus Gilchrist	USF	38.1	104.8	25.3	24.6	1.16
Darryl Bryant	WVU	55.0	102.7	23.9	21.4	1.00

The list contains the last member of the Big East's All-Rookie Team from 2009 still in school, Cincinnati's Yancy Gates. Every one else from that team has departed for life in the pros. Gates, whose time with the Bearcats has featured an off-and-on relationship with Head Coach Mick Cronin, found himself, more often than not, the 3^rd last season, and that step back allowed him to trade efficiency for usage, a common trade-off. With seniors Deonta Vaughn and Steven Toyloy graduated, and Lance Stephenson gone in the draft last June, the opportunity to step forward and play a major role in the fate of this team this season is there -- if Gates can stay out of foul trouble (he averaged about 3.8 fouls per 40 minutes last season, per Ken Pomeroy) and maintain or enhance his efficiency even as he takes a larger share of the possessions and shots. The offensively challenged Bearcats (a recurring theme in Coach Cronin's tenure), will have to look to a committee of veteran players, centered on Gates no doubt (and freshman pf Justin Jackson?), to make up for the departed offense. With the spotlight on senior Da'Sean Butler and All Big East Devin Ebanks, more than a few observers missed 6-8 250 lb bfc Kevin Jones, yet he played a crucial role in Coach Huggins' Four Forwards Offense. Though guard-like duties fell to Butler and one of Truck Bryant (see below) or Joe Mazzulla if they were available, Jones proved to be extremely efficient in a just-out-of-the-limelight "Role" player status. Jones was the 3^rd option on offense, but like Gates, two of the bigger options ahead of him last season, Butler and Ebanks, have moved on. Coach Huggins recognized his value, playing Jones a whopping 81% of the time in 2010. Jones' teammate Darryl Bryant should see his possession and shot rates climb this season as well. Bryant, whose effectiveness may have been compromised by personal and health issues in 2010, has the potential to see his role in the offense expand to "Major Contributor" (Poss% 25%-28%) levels, but will have to improve his shot conversion and limit his turnover rate, if he expects to see his efficiency (and playing time) climb. Seton Hall's Jeff Robinson is one of four JUCO/transfers on this list. Times change -- there was a point in time when transfer "stars" were so rare they often drew special attention from the media and coaching staffs. Though he did not qualify for play until the end of the Fall 2009 Semester, Robinson was so effective during the conference portion of the Hall's schedule that he sent starter Robert Mitchell to the bench. Robinson, along with teammates Herb Pope (also a transfer) & Jeremy Hazell, flirted briefly with the NBA draft, but (all) decided to return to South Orange for another season. Recruited by departed coach Bobby Gonzalez, Robinson is a 'tweener, who has the size of a #2/#3 with the skill set of a slasher. He will see even more floor time this season if his defensive rebounding matched his offensive board work (see below). Robinson's teammate and fellow "Watch List"er Jordan Theodore should see a larger role in the offense now that Eugene Harvey and Keon Lawrence have moved on. Theodore has much the same conversion deficiency as Truck Bryant, but without the turnovers and other baggage Bryant may carry.

			Four Factors...
						FTA
Player	Coll	%Min	eFG%	OR%	TO%	FGA
Kevin Jones	WVU	81.2	57.6	12.0	10.9	28.5
Jeff Robinson	Hall	50.1	54.3	9.2	8.5	35.0
Terrence Jennings	'Ville	31.6	61.7	13.6	17.4	34.8
Kris Joseph	Cuse	69.6	50.8	7.7	18.2	59.8
Jordan Theodore	Hall	64.5	47.5	3.0	16.2	37.8
Darius Johnson-Odom	MU	73.1	56.4	2.0	18.1	28.7
Yancy Gates	'Nati	62.8	52.2	11.0	15.1	30.3
Augustus Gilchrist	USF	38.1	52.4	9.3	20.0	54.5
Darryl Bryant	WVU	55.0	42.4	2.7	21.6	56.0

A summer ago Coach Rick Pitino tabbed Terrence Jennings "the key" to Cardinal success in 2010. Though he brought energy to the line-up, Jennings was unable to develop a tandem playing relationship with Samardo Samuels, and found himself behind the more heralded bfc in the rotation. Though Jennings offered efficient scoring and a dominant rebounding presence, especially on the offensive boards, he did not establish much more than a "role" presence on offense. Sam-Sam moved on to the NBA this past June, and ready or not, he has passed the low post baton onto Jennings. Pomeroy's 50% confidence interval suggests Jennings should grow into a "Major Contributor" role this season (in the range of 21%-24% of the possessions/shots), but given the personnel loss, should Jennings blow up, a "Significant Contributor" role, something just north of 25% is possible. As a high-end "Role Player", Jennings has shown he can be very efficient (111.8-116.1); if he can maintain his efficiency level while expanding his role in the offense, he will definitely make an All-Big East Team or two. Then if he is around in the summer of 2011, I will not be able to include him on my Rising Seniors "Watch" List. Kris Joseph is yet another example of how team work was so successful for Syracuse last season. Distribution -- of possessions and shots among the players on the floor -- was atypical for a F1 team, but extremely effective for the Orange. Joseph's Poss% and Shot% put him at the upper edge of "Role Player". Johnson, Rautins and Onuaku have moved on, and given Kris' growth in role and efficiency over the past two seasons, he is on track to become a "Major Contributor" next season. Usage growth has gone hand-in-hand with improvement of efficiency, a good sign for Joseph and Syracuse in 2011.

		Miscellaneous...
Player	Coll	Ast%	DR%	Blk%	Stl%
Kevin Jones	WVU	7.2	13.0	3.1	1.1
Jeff Robinson	Hall	3.4	12.9	2.1	1.4
Terrence Jennings	'Ville	5.8	15.3	10.2	2.5
Kris Joseph	Cuse	10.2	13.7	1.6	2.8
Jordan Theodore	Hall	22.4	6.4	0.9	3.2
Darius Johnson-Odom	MU	17.0	9.2	0.6	1.8
Yancy Gates/td>	'Nati	7.4	15.2	3.7	1.3
Augustus Gilchrist	USF	4.2	14.6	3.4	0.5
Darryl Bryant	WVU	25.2	7.7	0.1	1.8

The log-jam in Marquette's back court going into the 2009-10 season was big enough to convince senior Maurice Acker to forego his spot on the roster and concentrate on completing his studies. With two transfers (one a returning native son), a true, and much heralded, local freshman and second returning senior combo guard, it was easy to see why Ackers thought to stand aside. I had to wonder where a second promising transfer, Darius Johnson-Odom, would fit. Preseason injuries to Cadougan (who later returned to play 12 games at the end of the season) and Johnson-Odom were enough to bring Acker back to the squad where he had a very good senior campaign (ranked #1 in conference for assist-to-turnover ratio and #1 for 3FGM%). A quickly recovered Johnson-Odom completed the accidental back court, becoming a fixture alongside a combination of Acker, Cubillan and/or Buycks. He proved to be a good combo guard, sliding over to the off guard where could find his shot (eFG% -- 56.4%) both inside and outside (ranked #7 in conference for 3 pointers made) when Acker manned the #1, and then over to the lead guard spot when Cubillan or Buycks came in. Johnson-Odom had a respectable (per Ken Pomeroy), though not Top 500 assist rate, suggesting he will move back and forth in the Buzz Williams' back court again this season. Normally I cut off candidates at about the 40% Mins line, but (like Louisville's Terrence Jennings...) Augustus Gilchrist made an good argument for setting that guideline aside. Gus completed his first year in Tampa by showing the Bulls' faithful that he could be a dominant (though inefficient) front court presence when he saw the court. Efficiency, under the right circumstances, could be improved, so 2010 held serious promise for the Bulls and Gilchrist. An early December ankle sprain sidelined him until mid-February. He returned to help the Bulls close out their Big East regular season with a four game winning streak. Many assumed the 6-10 235 pound player would man the low post, but he seems to want to play more on the perimeter than the low blocks. Not a dominant defensive rebounder, Gus has shown he can block a shot when needed and dominate on the offensive boards. Over the past two seasons South Florida fans have seen enough to be excited about Gilchrist's potential. He made significant strides in shot and possession-to-point efficiency. If the big guy can manage to log an entire season with the Tampa school, his expected possession and shot rates this season could well land him in "Major Contributor" role in the Bulls' offense. With Jones departed for the NBA, and a number of new guards coming in to replenish Coach Heath's severely depleted back court, Gilchrist should become an "early and often" offensive option.

What About...?
DePaul's Devin Hill and Jeremiah Kelly were too inefficient with their shots last season, logging eFG%s in the low 40s. Greg Monroe's exit leaves a lot of shots and possessions to divvy up among the remaining (and entering) Hoyas. But Henry Sims, who entered as a freshman with Monroe (and was by some, better regarded), who saw his sophomore minutes diminish relative to his freshman season, would seem to be a poor candidate for a significant portion of those possessions/shots. His possession rate, 16%, may have grown modestly over his freshman rate (14.5), but there is a small probability that more than another 4%-5% will come his way (assuming he gets more minutes). Jason Clark, another Hoya who may potentially benefit (possessions and shots) from Greg Monroe's good fortune, made the "Freshmen Watch" list last August, and did increase his efficiency. But his role, as measured by possessions and shots, did not grow at all. Coach Thompson did not, even with a dominant low post presence like Monroe, experiment much with a rotation that put three under 6-5 guards on the floor at the same time. Lacking Monroe, I have to think Coach Thompson would be even less inclined to give that line-up extended run this season.

Hits and Misses...Last Season's "Rising Juniors"
Jimmy Butler and Austin Freeman drew "All-Big East"-level recognition (an Honorable Mention & 2^nd Team) and so are disqualified from consideration this off season -- remember we are looking for the guys just off the radar (congratulations to both). DePaul's Mac Koshwal declared for the draft again last April, went undrafted, but played for the Pistons in the NBA Summer League. Pitt's Brad Wanamaker, St. John's DJ Kennedy and Syracuse's Rick Jackson saw their efficiency and roles improve over the course of the 2010 season. For Wanamaker and Jackson, the efficiency improvement was good, but the growth in roles was comparatively small. Given Syracuse's relatively even distribution of touches and shots expect to see Jackon's role grow (modestly probably) again this season. Kennedy's role grew considerably, bordering on "Go-to Guy"-level possessions. Yet the rising senior drew no accolades from the conference. So I put him back on the Watch List (Rising Seniors) again this season. Louisville's Preston Knowles saw his role grow (possessions went from 16.9% to 21.9%), but his efficiency diminished (112.9 to 103.2), a more common phenomena than the both move in the same direction. Corey Stokes, Sean Evans and Marshon Brooks saw their roles remain about the same, while their efficiencies either declined (Evans) or increase (Stokes and Brooks). Brooks, like Kennedy, is pulling down near "Go-to Guy"-level possession and shot rates, so (like Kennedy) I put him back on the watch list. Stokes on the other hand drew middling "Role Player"-level possessions and shots in 2010, much as he had in 2009. There is a ceiling in the low 20s, but if he is going much higher, he will have to buck the trend.

Watch Lists by Class

Rising Seniors

Rising Sophomores -- Ten to Watch

The Big Jump
Common wisdom says the prime-time players (who don't jump to the league after their freshmen seasons...) take the biggest leap in their development during their sophomore season. I am not sure there is a single rule that dictates when a player makes his greatest strides. Some, like Dante Cunningham (Villanova, Class of 2009) and Hilton Armstrong (UConn, Class of 2006), see their roles grow with each season, but take the biggest (it seems) spurt in their senior season. Others make an impact their freshman seasons, but never seem to develop beyond that season (Edgar Sosa? Mike Nardi? Darryl Hill?). Like other "10 to Watch" postings, I am not listing All Big East Freshman Teamers, everyone knows who they are and will be watching/reporting on their every game. These overlooked ten might be on the threshold of a breakout season, or more likely solidify a starting spot on their team's roster. These players have a Big East season under their belts. They survived, put up some good (but not stud) numbers and are looking at opportunities to step into major roles with their teams this coming season.

On Offense...
Player	Team	%Min	ORtg	%Poss	%Shots	eFG%	PPWS	OR%	FTR%
A Gibbs	Pitt	25.9	117.5	18.2	20.8	58.1	1.20	1.9	17.1
K Jones	WVU	48.1	113.6	16.7	19.5	50.3	1.02	10.7	23.7
Jennings	Ville	26.5	111.8	18.0	16.5	59.4	1.17	15.1	51.0
Echenique	RU	70.7	108.6	16.8	15.0	50.8	1.11	12.2	65.9
C Wright	GTown	81.0	107.8	21.9	22.0	53.7	1.15	1.2	41.1
D Dixon	Nati	54.1	104.1	19.2	20.5	45.4	0.98	6.4	33.3
Bryant	WVU	63.7	102.6	21.9	21.3	47.9	1.05	1.6	35.7
J Clark	GTown	45.1	100.3	17.2	16.1	57.0	1.22	7.2	31.3
K Joseph	Cuse	29.2	88.2	16.3	15.5	46.1	0.91	7.0	50.5
Gilchrist	USF	48.5	87.6	27.3	30.4	43.3	0.91	7.7	31.4

Ashton Gibbs and Terrence Jennings did not see the floor much at the start of the season. Gibbs was behind senior pg Levance Fields and sophomore Brad Wanamaker, while Jennings found Samardo Samuels and Earl Clark in front of him. Both worked themselves into the rotation by season's end. Jennings logged about 38% of the minutes at his position during the Big East season, while Gibbs spent July playing lead guard for his coach in the U19 World Championship Tournament in New Zealand, making up ground on the playing time he missed last season. Gibbs gained valuable experience he will be able to use early next season. He will split time and responsibilities with rising junior Brad Wanamaker and red shirt freshman Travon Woodall. Rutgers' Greg Echenique, efficient but under utilized on offense last season, will benefit from a distributor like transfer James Beatty at the point. Having a reliable 2nd and 3rd option on offense will work to All Big East Rookie teammate Mike Rosario's benefit, even if the gunner gets a few less touches. Darryl "Truck" Bryant is on this list even though he is currently suspended. Bryant, arrested twice within a one week period in June for (serious) traffic offenses, was suspended by Coach Bob Huggins, but has continued to live (and workout) in the Morgantown area over the summer. His 102.7 offensive rating is on the right side of 100, combined with possessions and shot percentages (%Poss and %Shot) above 21 suggest he can produce points (via shooting or assists) efficiently. His assist rate (Ast% -- 21.2) was top 400, though undermined by his high turnover rate (TO% -- 22.2) in a typically freshman sort of way. Given a full season that should improve (and help his ORtg, not to mention his team, considerably). Given both he and red shirt junior Joe Mazzulla (suspended in May, pending resolution on an unrelated assault charge), are both listed on West Virginia's latest roster, odds are excellent both will be re-instated before the season, if not by the Fall practice in mid-October.

On Defense...
Player	Team	%Min	DR%	%Ast	TO%	%Blk	%Stls
Ashton Gibbs	Pitt	25.9	5.4	13.7	19.3	0.3	0.8
Kevin Jones	WVU	48.1	18.2	6.7	9.6	3.8	1.9
Terrence Jennings	Ville	26.5	11.6	3.8	16.3	13.7	2.3
Gregory Echenique	RU	70.7	20.6	4.5	16.8	8.1	1.5
Chris Wright	GTown	81.0	9.5	25.1	20.4	0.3	2.1
Dion Dixon	Nati	54.1	9.7	12.5	16.3	0.8	1.4
Darryl Bryant	WVU	63.7	6.7	21.2	22.2	0.1	1.3
Jason Clark	GTown	45.1	10.0	9.0	29.1	1.1	2.2
K Joseph	Cuse	29.2	11.9	6.1	20.2	1.8	3.7
Augustus Gilchrist	USF	48.5	12.9	5.4	16.2	4.2	0.7

At 6-10 and 235 pounds Gus Gilchrist drew a lot of attention last season. With nearly 28% of the possessions and taking (just) over 30% of the shots when he was on the floor, he was taking a "Go-to Guy"-level role in the Bulls offense. But he was not converting possessions into points very efficiently (about .88 points per possession, below the Bulls team .95 ppp). I got the feeling Gilchrist wanted to play more #4 than #5, and with Jarrid Famous, a classic back-to-the-basket type #5 to bolster returning rising senior Alex Sanchez at the #5, Gilchrist may be able to play facing the basket on offense. For a real break through season however, in addition to improving his shot selection (and accuracy) Gilchrist will have to step up his rebounding. Though he had another year of eligibility, DaJuan Summers moved on, handing Hoya wing Jason Clark one of those opportunities to blossom. Georgetown needs rebounding under both baskets -- something Clark did not demonstrate an instinct for last season. Cincinnati's Dion Dixon on the other hand, will face very stiff competition for minutes. With redshirt freshman Cashmire Wright taking the point, All-Big East Teamer Deonta Vaughn will most likely move out to the wing. Between Vaughn and incoming wing Lance Stephenson, Dixon will have to produce early and often to secure a spot in the Bearcat rotation. Kris Josephs' situation at Syracuse bears similarity to both Gibbs/Jennings and Clark/Dixon. Like Gibbs/Jennings Joseph did not draw a lot of minutes in 2009, but the Orange lost 3 starters in the off season, virtually guaranteeing that Joseph will draw an opportunity to compete for a larger role with the team. But Joseph will get competition from transfer Wesley Johnson, red shirt freshman Mookie Jones and true freshman James Southerland.


And Then There's...
The Big East All Freshmen Team, Yancy Gates, Kemba Walker, Greg Monroe, Samardo Samuels, Mike Rosario and Devin Ebanks, will no doubt have great seasons. If all goes as anticipated, a few (Greg Monroe? Devin Ebanks?) will likely put in for the NBA draft next June.

DePaul's Jeremiah Kelly will draw more duty at the point this season, now that senior Jabari Currie has moved on. Currie was hobbled with turnover problems for his entire career, that Kelly could not move past him last season was disappointing. When Malik Boothe was sidelined with injuries last season Quincy Roberts was one of several freshmen who stepped into the breech. Less than stellar shooting was further undermined by turnovers. This season Roberts will compete with 2 more freshmen and a transfer for playing time (not to mention 3 returning players) in the back court/wing. I have closed an eye to playing time for a handful of rising sophomores, but Louisville's Jared Swopshire & George Goode, Georgetown's Henry Sims and Pitt's Nasir Robinson have too little playing time to project comfortably. Sims has about 20+% PT at his spot, with Swopshire, Goode and Robinson far closer to 10% than 20%. Of the 3 Robinson most likely has the clearest path to a secure spot in his team's rotation, but how successful he will become is uncertain (from the numbers). His best path to the Panther rotation is rebounding. Pittsburgh finds itself in the same boat as Connecticut, Louisville, Marquette and Villanova, it's best rebounders have moved on and the staff will give high marks to the players who grab the loose balls.

Many thanks for Ken Pomeroy. His website is an invaluable source for individual possession-based stats.

Preview -- South Florida

The Wildcats and Bulls have their one game this season in Tampa on Saturday. In a made-by-conference series, Villanova leads 2-0. Hopefully the Wildcats can stay on their run...

Common Opponents, Good Wins, Bad Losses...
The 'Cats and Bulls faced two common opponents so far, Niagara was an OOC opponent, and Louisville was a conference opponent:

	Nova		USF
Opponent	W/L	Diff.	W/L	Diff.
Niagara	W (H)	+15	L (H)	-15
Louisville	L (H)	-1	L (H)	-14

South Florida (Big East, 7-11, RPI #150) has had few notably good wins or notably bad losses. Their best win was against Northeastern (CAA, 12-6, RPI #64). The most damaging loss to date would have to be the 26 point loss versus Oral Roberts (Summit, 8-11, RPI #155)...

Lineups, Rotations...
...Coach Stan Heath has brought in quite a few players in the past 20 or so monthes. Nowhere is the challenge of integrating these parts more obvious than in the starting lineup. For the 18 games played to date, the Bulls have used no less than 10 different starting lineups. That includes three different lineups in their first six Big East games.

In the front court Coach Heath has his choice of freshman transfer Gus Gilchrist (6-10, 235lbs) or junior Alex Rivas-Sanchez (6-10, 230lbs) to man the low blocks. Gilchrist has, since his appeal to play was granted in mid-December, conistently drawn minutes, whether or not he starts. Heath can draw from a pool of tweeners that includes seniors Mobolaji Ajayi (6-9, 225lbs) and Aris Williams (6-9, 235lbs) and freshmen Mitch Emory (6-6, 205lbs) and Eladio Espinosa (6-7, 220lbs) to man the #4/#5 spots. Lately (the Big East season...), Coach Heath has platooned Ajayi with Espinosa or Williams and Gilchrist. Gilchrist and Williams started the Bull's last game (the second DePaul game). Whether they start or come off the bench, Ajayi and Williams draw double digit minutes, even as Eladio's minutes seem to fluxuate in a range of 9 to 26 minutes (most often double digits). Gilchrist started as soon as he was eligible (the Niagara game), but despite being rotated in and out of the starting lineup, has managed to consistently draw minutes in the range of 15 to 32 minutes ever since. Sanchez's playing time by contrast, has fluxuated widely from game to game and Emory has played in a single game this season.

The back court is a bit easier, as Coach Heath will start sophomore Dominique Jones (6-4, 205lbs) and... two of senior transfer Jesus Verdejo (6-4, 205lbs), red shirt junior Chris Howard (6-3, 200lbs) and freshman Justin Leemow (6-1, 175lbs). Howard is an experienced point guard with a pass first mentality. He is ranked in Ken Pomeroy's Top 500 for assists and is second on the team (behind Jones) for assists. Leemow has appeared in all 18 of the Bull's games, but has logged only 25.3% of the playing time available for a guard position. Jones (91.4), Verdejo (86.3) and Howard (79.3) have logged large blocks of time. Freshmen guards BJ Daniels (6-1, 212lbs) and Gaby Belardio (6-2, 180lbs) are available when Coach Heath wants to dip deeper into his bench. Both have appeared in about 10 games this season.

Dante Cunningham, Antonio Pena, Dwayne Anderson and Scottie Reynolds will start for the Wildcats. The last spot will go to one of the Coreys (Fisher or Stokes) or Reggie Redding. Shane Clark, his wrist secured in a flexible cast for the Connecticut game, will see time as well. Cunningham had foul trouble against the Huskies, playing a total of 14 minutes, easily his season low. Anderson and Stokes had efficient scoring that night, the problem is they played relative small roles in the offense, taking only about 1 in 6 available shots when they were in the game. Pena logged a strong game on the boards versus the Huskies; the 'Cats will need him to do the same against the Bulls.

By the Numbers, Offense & Defense...
USF plays for about 63.1 possessions, ranking it among the lowest of the down tempo teams in D1. Their (adjusted) offensive/defensive rating, 106.2/97.5 suggests they play pretty good offense and pretty "average" defense. A look at the "numbers underneath" give us an idea of how they do it.

When South Florida has the ball...
				FTA
	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FGA
Bull O	46.2	20.5	37.0	39.5
Wildcat D	45.1	22.2	29.6	37.0

Expect a battle under the Bull's basket. Nova is performing at a near elite (ranked according to Ken Pomeroy's Scouting Report (#53) level while rebounding their own misses is one of the several (according to the same Ken Pomeroy's Scouting Report) offensive skills (at which they excel - ranked #52) which the Bulls have employed to mask their shooting deficiencies this season. Bull shot making is very mediocre (I am being kind here), ranked at #257 by Ken Pomeroy. There is no special deficiency (unless you count free throws, which the Bulls have converted at a 60.2% rate), as South Florida is ranked in the mid 200s for FGM% in both 2s (45.6/#247) and 3s (31.8/#248). Offensive rebounding, combined with getting to the line, have helped the Bulls compensate for their inability to score consistently with their first FGA of their possession. Dominique Jones generates a good deal of the offense, with his shot% at 28.6 and offensive rating at 109.2, but as his eFG% (at 48.5) & PPWS (1.08) suggest, he has no consistent inside threat in the form of a Kentrall Gransberry to draw some defensive attention. He is taking a lot of the shots as he was last season, but this time they are not dropping because he is drawing a good deal of the defensive attention. Gus Gilchrist, eligible since mid-December, will be up to speed...next season. He and Jesus Verdejo nearly match Jones in shot% (28.0 & 27.7 respectively), but are no more efficient (eFG%s of 47.4 & 48.8 respectively) and considerably less accurate (PPWSs of 0.98 & 0.97 respectively) -- the monkey on their collective backs it seems, is the free throw line. Gilchrist hits at a 51.7% rate while Verdejo converts 64.4% of his FTAs. Turnovers should be interesting because the 'Cats are pretty good (not great) at forcing turnovers while the Bulls seem no better than average (ranked #) for valuing the ball. The weak link may well be Chris Howard, whose individual turnover rate 24.0 is just barely on the good side of his assist rate (25.1). Howard in fact is notably good at setting up his teammates, but his good work is undermined by the turnovers.
The "Four Factors" look at Villanova's offense versus USF's defense:

When Villanova has the ball...
				FTA
	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FGA
Wildcat O	50.7	18.1	36.3	41.0
Bull D	45.6	18.8	35.8	41.4

Note the matchups when Villanova has the ball are mirror reverses -- where Villanova excels USF fails, and where Nova struggles, the Bulls excel. Such is the state of shooting, as the Wildcats slide towards the middle of D1 (ranked #105) while the Bulls hover at near-elite levels (ranked #57). The Wildcats would do well to take their chances on the inside against Gilchrist (or Williams...Verdejo...Ajayi), as USF seems particularly good at defending the 3. The Bulls struggle to rebound defensively, do not tend to force turnovers and do not keep opponents off the line. While their numbers suffer from having faced Pittsburgh, Louisville and Syracuse, three of the Big East's stronger offensive squads, the Wildcat's prospects clearly hang on their ability to score against the Bulls front line, or generate second and third chance opportunities...

Want to Beat the Bulls? Then...
Shooting dominates as a critical factor for both squads. But for USF, Nova's turnovers can affect the outcome. Villanova appears to be sensitive effectively limiting opponent's second chance points
1. Defend their shooting -- When the Bull's eFG% was 41.4 or less they went 1-7.
2. Hit your shots -- The conversion rate seems a bit low, but when USF's opponents have shot 44.0 or better (eFG%) the Bulls record has been 2-10. Nova's record when they have converted at 44.0 or better is 13-2.
3. Value the ball -- The Bull's are 2-8 when their opponents have a TO% of 20.5 or less. The Wildcats have had a TO% that high or higher in 7 games so far.
4. Limit their 2nd chances -- The Bulls rebound about 37.0% of their misses. When Nova allows an OR% that high they have gone 1-2. The Bulls are 2-7 when they have been held to that rebounding rate or lower.

Finally...
...Coach Heath appears to be running a kind of extended team tryout for the #3, #4 and #5 spots. While he is asking Jones to do more (even distribute the ball in addition to score), he needs consistent second and third options on offense. The Bulls can defend, but shooting presents a challenge for them. Coach Wright has settled on a rotation that goes (foul trouble or blow out excepted) of between 8 and 9 players.

According to calculations, this game should go for about 61 possessions (South Florida's comfort zone), with the 'Cats taking a 5 point decision. If the possessions are that low, Nova should be able to win if they score at least 65 points.