Big East versus Big West -- A Long (Beach) Night for Pittsburgh

Maybe Long Beach State did not get the memo, visitors are supposed to lose at the Peterson Event Center. And out of conference visitors, especially those whose KenPom ratings are within ear shot of #100, are supposed to lose badly. If the beating, the first at home to a non-Big East opponent since 2005, was not bad enough however, taking it as a double-digit loss (86-76) has to be even worse. Dan Monson's 49ers led at the half by nine, 45-36, a half time deficit nearly matching the one they took to the locker room against Tennessee last season. The Panthers made the necessary adjustments in the second half to overcome the Vols, but not this time, as Long Beach added another point to their half time lead to make the winning margin an even 10. The AP story indicated Long Beach was able to consistently get behind their Pitt defenders, beating them consistently to the basket.

The possession-based stats indicate the same...

						FTA
	Pace	PPP	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FGA
Pittsburgh	65.8	1.16	54.3	18.2	35.5	24.1
Long Beach State		1.31	65.7	15.2	37.5	42.6

...as Pitt's defense gave up an astonishing 1.31 points per possession, 86 points on just under 66 possessions. Pitt likes to play for a 60-64 possessions typically, but this was not outside of their comfort zone. Reports suggesting Long Beach State was "fast" or "speedy" are slightly misleading. Guards Casper Ware, who scored a career-high 28 points, along with James Ennis, consistently scored on run-outs that originated from Panther miscues and missed field goal attempts. The 49ers converted 25 of 36 two point attempts, unthinkable except if they could consistently beat the Pitt defenders back to the basket. Monson's squad outrebounded Pittsburgh by three, 29 to 26, while getting to their offensive boards surprisingly well, grabbing 37.5% of their own misses, both very unPitt-like stats. Junior Dante Taylor started, but Gary McGhee's presumed successor in the low post logged about 20 minutes, yielding to red shirt sophomore Talib Zanna and freshman Klem Birch. Though Taylor provided offense from his spot in the lane, Zanna was much the better at board work, grabbing 25.8% of the available offensive boards and over 16% of the defensive boards while he was in the game. to Taylor's 6.8% (OReb%) and 17.8% (DReb%). I expect a big shake-up in the Panther lineup going forward.

Rising Sophomores -- Ten to Watch

"Rising Sophomores" or "Rising" Sophomores?
Classes have resumed, these 10 are by class sophomores now. The only "rising" they will do when the 2011-12 games commence in November will be visibility, to their fans (if they are not noted already in a parcel of season previews...) and perhaps to the media when the boxscores are posted. Don't look for Jeremy Lamb here, the Big East All-Conference Rookie Teamer had a pretty good tournament in Latvia this summer (even if Team USA did not medal). The same goes for Sean Kilpatrick, Shabazz Napier, Gilvydas Biruta and Cleveland Melvin...Big East All-Rookies all. Using Pomeroy's classification system as a guide, I am scouting the "Role" or "Significant Contributor" players, players who took about 14%-24% of their team's shots when they were on the floor last season. Sometimes the possessions might be a bit light (*cough* Bryce Cotton), or even the minutes (), but with 2011 teammates moving on the roles will shift for some of the Big East Conference members, and more than a few of these players could grow into "Major Contributor"s over the course of the course of next season -- though most probably won't. Pomeroy discusses growth "probabilities" in "Putting Individual Efficiency into Perspective" over at The Basketball Prospectus back in 2007. Many thanks to Ken Pomeroy for the data at his website.

			On Offense...
Player	Coll	%Min	ORtg	%Poss	%Shots	PPWS
Bryce Cotton	PC	36.8	112.8	12.2	14.3	1.01
Gorgui Dieng	Ville	31.6	112.7	18.5	16.6	1.22
C.J. Fair	Cuse	42.3	109.5	17.6	18.0	1.12
Eric Atkins	NDU	62.5	109.2	15.3	13.1	1.06
Nate Lubick	GTown	48.9	108.9	13.3	10.9	1.17
Dion Waiters	Cuse	39.3	107.6	21.3	24.4	1.05
Talib Zanna	Pitt	23.4	106.7	18.2	16.3	1.10
Roscoe Smith	UConn	62.3	106.2	14.4	15.0	0.98
Fuquan Edwin	Hall	61.4	97.2	17.3	20.1	0.97
Gerard Coleman	PC	71.4	91.5	19.6	20.9	0.92

An unintended consequence of the failed Joseph Young recruitment, then Providence Head Coach Keno Davis found himself picking through the last few "untakens" in August of 2010. A well-regarded off guard Bryce Cotton was still "available", but eligibility issues had severely degraded the Arizona native's value to the BCS-level programs. Signed literally days before the start of classes for the Fall 2010 semester, Cotton was cleared to play by the NCAA, and the Friars had themselves a pretty good guard. Cotton spent a good piece of the season working his way into the rotation (no doubt in large part from his abysmal three point conversion rate, 25.9%), but even Davis could not overlook a decent two point conversion rate (51%) and some defensive skills. Cotton is not a strong breakout candidate, but he should earn more minutes and a larger role (more than the "invisible" 12.2% possession rate from 2011) in the no doubt retooled Friar offense rookie head coach Ed Cooley will unveil for 2012. Short of scholarships and the clear loser in the fight for the #3 spot in the Husky lineup (a brush with the law was no help either...), sophomore Jamal Coombs-McDaniel packed his bags at the end of the spring semester and headed out to Hofstra, leaving Roscoe Smith as the his-to-lose small forward for 2012. Though overshadowed by fellow freshmen Shabazz Napier and Jeremy Lamb, Smith had a promising opening campaign. Smith can help his profile (and no doubt draw more possessions) if he can improve his shot accuracy (note his 43.8% eFG%, due to a 30% conversion rate from beyond the arc, coupled with an underwhelming 43.1% two point conversion rate). Louisville's roster going into the 2011 season was a mess. In addition to the "usual" preseason injury list, the Coach Pitino also lost 5th year senior transfer Roburt Sallie and freshman Justin Coleman due to NCAA eligibility issues. Also among the NCAA-mandated casualties, Gorgui Dieng was, as of October 5, inelibigible to suit up. In Dieng's case Coach Pitino appealed, and in an uncharacteristically good turn of fortune, the Cardinals won and Dieng played the season. Though he played a bit better than 30% of the minutes in the low post, note that he was out five games due to a head injury sustained during the West Virginia game in late January. The injury may have set the center-in-waiting back a bit, but since Terrence Jennings moved on at the end of the spring semester, Dieng will move into the role. While his rebounding (and block rate) numbers are impressive, his offense is efficient enough to warrent a larger role in the offense.

			Four Factors...
						FTA
Player	Coll	%Min	eFG%	OR%	TO%	FGA
Gorgui Dieng	Ville	31.6	61.8	13.2	18.9	47.3
Talib Zanna	Pitt	23.4	56.3	16.3	18.3	59.2
Nate Lubick	GTown	48.9	56.0	7.9	24.1	44.0
C.J. Fair	Cuse	42.3	54.6	10.0	15.4	42.4
Dion Waiters	Cuse	39.3	48.4	2.6	15.2	25.3
Eric Atkins	NDU	62.5	48.3	2.3	20.0	50.7
Fuquan Edwin	Hall	61.4	46.3	3.3	11.7	23.8
Bryce Cotton	PC	36.8	45.3	3.1	8.6	34.9
Gerard Coleman	PC	71.4	44.5	3.2	18.1	31.6
Roscoe Smith	UConn	62.3	43.8	8.5	14.6	33.0

Someone will man the low post for the Panthers this season. Khem Birch may be the flavor of the month in Pittsburgh, but look for either Dante Taylor (one of nine juniors featured in an earllier post) or Talib Zanna to start with the other gathering over 40% of the playing time. Individually either would start for at least half of the teams in the conference. Together they give Coach Dixon 10 fouls and 40 minutes of low domination. And that is bad news for anyone playing Coach Dixon's squad this season. A side-b-side favors Taylor in most respects, and given that both have offensive rebound rates of 16+% is very bad news for opposing centers. Zanna's one advantage is fouls, giving and taking, with very little fall-off in the other offensive categories. With more playing time the sophomore's game should develop to the point where Pitt fans will hardly miss McGhee. Georgetown's Julian Vaughn is gone, leaving the low post up for grabs, sort of. Look for Nate Lubick, who pulled down nearly 49% of the minutes in a forward/center rotation, to split Vaughn's minutes with senior Henry Sims, junior Hollis Thompson and a slew of freshmen forwards. A key for Lubick's progress in 2012 will no doubt be his assist rate, 12.1% last season. As a forward/center in a system that values passing as a principal offensive weapon, should Lubick's assist rate rise to somewhere in the 15-18% range, the fans and staff will take it as a sign that he "gets it". Though very well regarded by the scouting services going into Syracuse, point guard-in-waiting Dion Waiters was supposed to fit in a three guard rotation with Scoop Jardine and Brandon Triche to learn the college game under Coach Beoheim. If the season had gone to script, the three should have formed a potent combination that would have allowed any two on the court for any possession to set the table and run the offense while the other roamed the perimeter. Waiters logged a surprisingly low 39% of the minutes in a season that showed promise but a few false starts. The freshman was his own worst enemy at times, and with Michael Carter-Williams waiting in the wings (the next heir apparent to Jonny Flynn?), this could be a crucial season for the sophomore. Coach Boeheim also brought in a slew of wing/forwards, making a crowded rotation from last season even more competitive. CJ Fair logged solid numbers in his freshman campaign, but even with Mookie Jones consigned to the deep bench, Fair will have to function in a rotation that includes junior James Southerland, senior Kris Joseph and a handful of freshmen hopefuls.

		Miscellaneous...
Player	Coll	Ast%	DR%	Blk%	Stl%
Eric Atkins	NDU	23.6	5.9	0.1	1.5
Dion Waiters	Cuse	17.3	8.0	0.8	4.1
Nate Lubick	GTown	12.1	13.8	1.5	0.8
Gerard Coleman	PC	8.9	7.9	0.5	1.7
Gorgui Dieng	Ville	8.2	18.8	13.7	1.7
Fuquan Edwin	Hall	7.5	11.4	1.7	2.8
Bryce Cotton	PC	5.5	7.8	0.0	2.4
C.J. Fair	Cuse	4.1	13.0	4.8	2.6
Roscoe Smith	UConn	3.3	13.7	4.9	1.2
Talib Zanna	Pitt	3.0	17.5	3.1	1.4

Notre Dame's point guard Eric Atkins, Providence off guard Gerald Coleman and Seton Hall's small forward Fuquan Edwin stepped into larger roles than usually expected of freshmen. For Coleman and Edwin, the minutes were large even if the role was closer to "Role Player" level, but neither produced efficient offensive numbers. Edwin's numbers should improve in his second year with Coach Kevin Willard. For Coleman (and Cotton), the future is a bit less certain, as the Friars replaced the basketball staff in the off season. How those two fit with the system and routines/policies established by Coach Ed Cooley will most likely determine how they do over the next season. Atkins played a limited role in the Irish offense (per his Poss%, 15.3%), confined to largely bringing up the ball and setting up the offense. His assist rate was top 500 (per Ken Pomeroy) 23.6%, confirming that veteran players shouldered the major responsibility for scoring. Expect Atkins to be more assertive in 2012.

What About...?
Syracuse's center and 2011 preseason Rookie of the Year selection Fab Melo saw very limited action, even aa he started most of the Orange's games. Prospects are that he will share the low post with fellow sophomore Baye Moussa Keita. Rebounding aside, neither was essential to the Orange's scoring last season. Marquette off guard Vander Blue had a credible season, but faded near the end. Freshman fatigue perhaps? Center Davante Gardner on the other hand blossomed in the late season, seeing more minutes as the season progressed, becoming almost an equal partner with junior Chris Otule. Gardener may move ahead of Otule this season, as he showed better offensive skills. Gardener's progress should be interesting, Coach Buzz Williams has not had a low post player with Gardener's skills.

Hits and Misses...Last Season's "Rising Sophomores"
Last season's list produced a few (very few...) hits, and more than a few misses. Hollis Thompson increased his minutes, role in Georgetown's offense and his offensive rating in 2011. Not a breakout season, but very solid progress that suggests he will be an All-Conference player this season or next. Others who showed progress last season include Dante Taylor, the Pittsburgh #4/#5 who increased his minutes very slightly, but bumped his offensive rating, suggesting steady growth and continued developement, Mouphtaou Yarou, Villanova's #5 whose minutes and role (Poss% and Shot%) within the offense grew (even if his offensive rating drifted downward a bit) and Peyton Siva, Louisville's point guard who doubled his minutes, bumped his offensive rating while maintaining a "Significant Contributor" role in Louisville's offense. Mookie Jones disappeared to a deep part of Syracuse's bench, DNP for 21 games. Dominic Cheek struggled 2011, though his minutes increased, his offenive efficiency declined and his role remained constant from his freshman season ("Role Player"). Cincinnati's Jaquon Parker, like Jones, did not seem to get his game on track last season, and faded to the deep rotation by season's end. Rakeem Buckles became the last injury casualty in the 2011 season. The then-sophomore was injured several times, missing 17 of the Cardinal's last 22 games. West Virginia's wing Dalton Pepper transferred to Temple at the end of the 2011 season.

Guest Contributor Ray Floriani: Coaches vs Cancer Finals

by Ray Floriani

NEW YORK CITY -- The championship of the Coaches vs. Cancer final at Madison Square Garden, came down to the final possession. Down two, Texas tossed, or should it be said forced, an on the run prayer that missed by a wide margin and Pitt emerged victorious 68-66. The Scores:

Consolation
Illinois		Maryland
80		76

Finals
Pittsburgh		Texas
68		66

Madison Square Garden
on a Friday afternoon

The Four Factors in the consolation:

		FTA
	eFG%	FGA	OR%	TO%
Maryland	47	19	47	22
Illinois	55	23	31	17

The game was played for 72 possessions. The offensive efficiency for each team computed to:

	Illinois	Maryland
Off. Efficiency	111	106

In one night Maryland improved dramatically in the rebounding department. Terrapins had a significant 20-11 edge on the offensive glass. Illinois' ability to care for the ball, even facing some full court and three quarter court pressure was significant. They shot very well, going 10 of 19 from beyond the arc. Leading the way from downtown were Demetri McCamey (3-3 from three) 20 points and D.J. Richardson (3-6 from three) 9 points. Maryland's Jordan Williams did not score and had 2 boards in nine first half minutes but came alive after intermission finishing with 15 points 13 rebounds.

The tale of Jordan Williams' two halves by efficiency...

	Half
	1st	2nd	Game
Efficiency	-1	22	21

Recorded Maryland's first half possessions by time with the following chart showing the results:

Time	Poss.	TOs	Pts	PPP
<15 seconds	21	6	21	1.00
=> 15 seconds	13	3	15	1.15
Total	34	9	36	1.06

[Note -- Poss. is possessions, TOs is turnovers and PPP is points per possession computed as Pts/Poss.]
Normally as possessions progress the chances of turnovers are greater. In Maryland's case they committed most of the TOs early on. Chalk that up to a few transition opportunities that ended without a shot. Interestingly, Gary Williams' club was more efficient after the 15 second mark. Partially due to the fact as the clock winds down they have a special set(s) to ensure a good attempt from the field. And they are actually more cautious as the shot clock winds down.

Your VBTN contributor was not invited

The Four Factors for the final:

		FTA
	eFG%	FGA	OR%	TO%
Texas	48	36	39	26
Pittsburgh	48	23	36	17

The championship game was played for 66 possessions; the offensive efficiencies were...

	Pittsburgh	Texas
Off. Efficiency	103	102

Scoreboard tells it all

The telling rate was in the turnover category. The Longhorns did everything else, out rebound Pitt (which few teams do), got to the line and shot a percentage that matched their opposition. But 17 turnovers in a 65 possession contest is a killer. Especially in a one possession game. In the dreaded TO category it seems Rick Barnes' club 'shared the wealth'. Cory Joseph and Jordan Hamilton led with three each but everyone of the nine players Texas used, had at least one. In Hamilton's defense the 6-7 sophomore swingman led all scorers with 28 points and proved to be an inside/outside matchup problem all night long.

Talib Zanna had an impressive semifinal but the Pitt frosh had only 2 points and 6 boards in a 15 minute foul plagued final. These things will happen but the impressive thing is Pitt has a number of players who can step up on the given night. Ashton Gibbs led the Panthers with 24 points (19 in the second half) while running mate Travon Woodall added 7 points 5 assists. The Panthers will capitalize on opposition errors and can beat you in many different ways.

Recorded the Pitt possessions by time once again. In the breakdown I just limited it to turnovers, points and points per possession. For calculating purposes an offensive rebound was an extension of the possession. Pitt had only seven offensive boards, so a great deal of their 'extended' possessions of 15 seconds or more were due to the Texas defense.

The First Half...
Time	Poss.	TOs	Pts	PPP
<15 seconds	21	3	22	1.05
=> 15 seconds	13	3	9	0.69
Total	34	6	31	0.91

[Note -- Poss. is possessions, TOs is turnovers and PPP is points per possession computed as Pts/Poss.]

The Second Half & Totals
Time	Poss.	TOs	Pts	PPP
<15 seconds	22	2	25	1.14
=> 15 seconds	14	3	12	0.86
2nd Half	36	5	37	1.03
Game	70	11	68	0/97

The number of possessions sometimes deviates from the formula. Many times the formula for possessions is right on the money or one or two off. Still, it is a great way to calculate the possessions if you do not chart every one the 'long hand' method. Also in charting, the person charting can make a clerical error, or two.

As the chart shows, the Panthers' points per possessions was more effective when the possession ended prior to 15 seconds. Those sequences include transition opportunities that were converted and good looks in the early offense. Pitt had a number of those the first ten minutes before Texas dug in and forced the opposition to make the extra passes and extend each Pitt trip down the floor.

In the post game presser Rick Barnes said the first 10 minutes were the key. "We came out a little stagnant especially on defense." With a young club, getting to the final with a strong showing against the nation's number four team was significant."

Jamie Dixon noted how the Travon Woodall-Ashon Gibbs (both NJ products with Woodall from St. Anthony's and Gibbs Seton Hall Prep) backcourt was very effective in the second half. Dixon also was impressed with the Panthers' balance. "We have 11 guys who contribute," he said. "One night someone will break out another night it could be someone else."

Ashton Gibbs receives the MVP award

Dixon was asked by Lenn Robbins of the NY Post to comment on critics contention that Pitt 'wins ugly'. "They are probably looking at me," Dixon quipped. The Panthers mentor went on to note how Pitt has been one of the most offensively efficient teams around the last few years. In '09 the average possessions for Pitt in Big East play was 67. Last season, with a lot of new faces, the pace slowed a bit to 64. Entering the Texas game Pitt averaged 71 possessions for their first four contests. If the break or early offense shot is there they will take it. You can chalk the slower paced games, especially in the Big East, as a product of their suffocating defense. The only 'ugly' in Pitt is what opponents see in having to face that trademark defense. Dixon summed it best saying, "better to win ugly than lose pretty."

Both nights at the Garden the Panthers won. And it was pretty impressive.

All Tournament
	Team
Ashton Gibbs (MVP)	Pittsburgh
Trevon Woodall	Pittsburgh
Jordan Hamilton	Texas
Jordan Williams	Maryland
Demetrius McCamey	Illinois

Pitt Panthers celebrate

2010-11 Preview -- Pittsburgh Panthers

Too Busy for the Details?
The 2009 Panthers made me a Jamie Dixon believer. Picking the Panthers to finish in hte second quartile in 2010 was a positive expression of faith, or so I thought. The 2011 edition has four returning starters, three very experienced rotation players and a boatload of promising newcomers. Returning players will be pushed by the freshmen early. Keeping everyone happy may be Coach Dixon's toughest job.  Prognosis -- A 1st quartile finish.

3 Years At a Glance

	Returning...
	2011	2010	2009
%Min	84.4	42.5	66.1
%Pts	79.7	48.2	48.7
%FGM	85.4	31.7	72.6
%3FGM	84.5	46.7	44.0
%OReb	92.6	24.4	82.9
%DReb	87.0	36.4	76.8
%TReb	88.7	32.1	79.1

A #3 finish in conference while returning only 42.5% of the minutes and so little of the rebounding is surprising for a Big East team, but a testimony to the resilience of the Pittsburgh program under Coach Dixon. The Panthers can stockpile and develop the talented stream of recruits they attract each year without regressing much in regular season play. The Panthers have won the conference regular season and tournaments under Coach Dixon. The next hurdle to clear is the NCAA Tournament Elite Eight.

	According to Pomeroy...
	2009-10		2008-09		2007-08
	#	Rank	#	Rank	#	Rank
BE Pace	62.3	16	66.8	9	64.2	12
BE Off Eff.	109.3	6	117.7	1	109.2	3
BE Def Eff.	103.4	5	101.6	5	104.7	11
BE Def eFG%	46.3	2	49.0	7	50.9	13
BE Def TOv%	15.3	15	17.1	12	19.2	10
BE Def Reb%	66.0	7	71.9	1	66.2	10
BE Def FTR%	35.6	6	33.7	8	31.7	5

Certainly in keeping with the offensive philosophy, but perhaps consistent with the staff's preference for larger, longer front court players, Pitt executes one of the more deliberate offenses in the conference. While #16 is on the low side (that spot is usually reserved for perimeter-oriented DePaul, Georgetown or West Virginia under John Beilein) it may be attributed to evolving roles in the offense and many opponents' difficulty developing scoring opportunities against Pitt's defense. The revelation is that Pittsburgh does not have an "elite" defense. Pace plays a strong role in opponents' low scores. Though he used the Atlantic 10 conference to frame his point, contributor Ray Floriani illustrated in his article over at College Chalktalk that the differential between a team's offensive and defensive efficiency often determines where it ranks within the conference. A point Pittsburgh makes year in and year out. Defensive efficiency may serve as Pitt's "floor" while their offense might be their "ceiling", but it is the difference that determines their rank. And they consistently rank in the upper division, often among the best in the Big East.

The defensive numbers are not, as I expected, dominating at all. Their defensive rebounding rate in 2009 hinted at how tough they could be at that end of the floor, but taken as a whole over the three seasons, there is no single signature statistic that identifies a "Pittsburgh Defense".

	For the Record...
	2009-10			2008-09			2007-08
	W	L	Pct.	W	L	Pct.	W	L	Pct.
Overall	25	9	0.735	31	5	0.861	27	10	0.730
Big East	13	5	0.722	15	3	0.833	10	8	0.556
Post Season?	NCAA Rnd #2			NCAA Rnd #4			NCAA Rnd #2

The Panthers' Nucleus
Coach Jamie Dixon's biggest task this season will be keeping everyone healthy and focused on the staff's objectives. Freshman season is over for the front court, time to see how good they really can be. Gary McGhee is a solid presence whose lack of speed will not throw Pittsburgh's offensive or defensive systems out of synch. Coach Dixon's style of play places a premium on ball control, pace and physical play. Fans fondly refer to the Panther defense as a boa constictor, and McGhee and Taylor can guarantee that the lane will be crowded and closed to most half court sets and pesky 6-0 guards who venture into the lane.

On Offense
Player	Min%	Ortg	Poss%	Shot%	eFG%	OR%	PPWS	FTR%
Ashton Gibbs	84.7	116.2	21.4	26.1	49.4	1.5	1.12	38.7
Brad Wanamaker	79.6	105.8	24.7	21.0	48.0	6.3	1.08	57.8
Nasir Robinson	61.0	97.0	18.2	17.7	50.8	9.9	1.00	31.6
Gary McGhee	59.1	109.3	16.0	14.1	62.3	12.1	1.24	53.6
Travon Woodall	49.4	93.1	19.6	17.3	44.5	1.6	0.96	29.7
Gilbert Brown	39.3	110.9	23.2	23.5	56.0	4.7	1.19	50.3
Dante Taylor	34.1	115.0	16.2	14.4	58.4	16.1	1.18	68.5

McGhee will never be the #1 option on offense, but the junior center will always get his share of points from putbacks and the occasional low post entry pass. Dante Taylor is also an exceptional offensive rebounder, and will complement McGhee well as a second, (slightly) speedier low post presence. Both are very efficient, in part because they know when to take their shot and when to pass the ball out to the perimeter. Gilbert Brown has been a four (five?) year enigma for the Panthers. Athletic and talented, between injuries, academic problems and inconsistency his flashes have brought smiles to the staff, media and fans, while his game-to-game level of play brings head shakes and heartburn. This is his last chance to impress, and Pittsburgh could have a 38 or 39 game season if he does.

On Defense
Player	Min%	DR%	Ast%	TO%	Stl%	Blk%
Ashton Gibbs	84.7	7.7	11.8	10.0	0.3	1.4
Brad Wanamaker	79.6	14.0	31.3	21.3	0.9	2.3
Nasir Robinson	61.0	16.0	13.4	20.9	1.4	1.0
Gary McGhee	59.1	20.3	4.9	21.7	7.5	0.6
Travon Woodall	49.4	11.1	31.8	27.2	1.1	1.7
Gilbert Brown	39.3	10.9	17.9	17.9	1.0	1.3
Dante Taylor	34.1	15.4	1.8	14.8	4.4	2.0

Areas for improvement for guards/wings Travon Woodall and Bradley Wanamaker include turnovers. Each gets enough possesions (19.6 and 24.7 respectively) that turnover rates above 20% can drag down Pitt's offensive efficiency. J.J. Richardson, a 6-7, 235 pound forward and walk-on senior Nick Rivers round out the returning players.

Significant Additions
This year's entering class features recruits at both back court spots and the wing. All are very good, but they, along with a handful of red shirt players from 2010, will be have to be integrated into an already deep rotation. Among the players entering, J.J. Moore might be the most higly regarded. The 6-5, 200 pound wing who prepped at the South Kent School in Connecticut will see minutes behind Gil Brown. Moore scored the team-high as a starter against the Ireland National Team last August. A good start to his career as a Panther. Point guard-in-waiting is Isaiah Epps, a 6-2, 160 pound lead guard out of Plainfield, NJ by way of Hargrave Military Academy did not take the Ireland Tour last summer, but he should definitely see minutes in the back court roatation in 2011. 6-7, 200 pound forward Aron Nwankwo from Baltimore, Maryland and 6-4, 200 pound sg Cameron Wright from Cleveland, Ohio also made the Ireland Tour and took advantage of the structured practice and exhibition games. Both should see a few minutes in the early season. If Pittsburgh's Ireland Tour last August is any indication, the 6-9 225 pound red shirt freshmen Talib Zanna and his wing teammate Lamar Patterson, a 6-5 220 pound wing from Lancaster, Pennsylvania by way of St. Benedict's in New Jersey, will definitely see regular minutes in the front court rotation this season.

Explode If...
Define explode. Regular season conference title? And Big East Tournament Champion? A #1 seed in the NCAA's? Elite Eight? Final Four?
1. The team is deep enough to sustain an injury/absence or two from just about any position in the rotation and not miss a beat (almost, see below). The squad has to practice and play hard, but play together.

Implode If...
1. With a very talented and deep squad, the problem is finding a role and playing time for all of the important parts. Friction between the younger and older members of the squad could undermine squad cohesion. The staff will have to look for the signs and defuse early.
2. The team has been identified early and widely as "the team to beat", both in the conference and nationally. Unlike 2010, they will sneak up on no one. Can the team adjust to life continuously in the limelight? The expectations can be difficult to meet sometimes, and different teams react in different ways.
3. Depth is good, but the two positions where an extended absence of the starter could prove to be relatively more difficult to overcome immediately would be at the point where Ashton Gibbs starts and the low post where Gary McGhee rules. The team is well-stocked at both positions, but Gibbs and McGhee have emerged as leaders. Replacements can make up the stats, but developing the leadership characteristics from either the replacements or other members of the squad (Brown? Wannamaker?) may take a bit longer.

Crucial Run/Bellweather Games
If the Panthers are indeed in the hunt for the Big East title this season they will start fast and keep going. As pod hosts for the 2K Sports Classic/Coaches vs Cancer Invitational, Pitt should, despite the fact that advancing to Madison Square Garden is automatic, sweep the three game preliminary set. Of the three, Rhode Island will be the most challenging opponent, as the Rams are projected to finish in the upper division of the A-10 Conference this season. Two BCS opponents, Maryland followed by either Illinois or Texas (most likely the 'Horns) will be waiting for Pitt in MSG. The top team in the Big East should be able to take any combination of the three. Coach Dixon's squad drew Tennessee in the Big East-SEC Challenge. The Panther will host the Vols, on December 11 in downtown Pittsburgh, as the featured matchup for a double header that includes a Rutgers-Auburn game. If Villanova faces Tennessee in the NIT Tip-Off, analysts will have a nice common opponent comparison to chew on in the month before conference play commences. Unlike earlier seasons, Coach Dixon will clear the traditional local rivalry games (Duquesne and Robert Morris) before the start of conference play. 12-0 going into their Connecticut game on 12/27 ought to have Pittsburgh in the AP Top 5. 11-1 might bruise Panther pride, but would no impact on the conference race or title prospects (regular or BET). A 9-3 record (or worse, given the competition) would bring a torrent of "What's Wrong With Pittsburgh/the Big East?" stories.

The schedule maker dealt Pittsburgh South Florida, Villanova and Backyard Brawl rival West Virginia as 2011 mirrors. The trio may be one of the tougher draws based on last season's Pythagorean Winning Percentage (PWP), but the Panthers should log no worse than a 4-2 record (sweep USF, draw with 'Nova & WVU). A 4 game run that stretchs through 10 days starting in the second week in January, should provide an early hint about the Panthers' prospects. Pitt opens the run by hosting Marquette, then takes a road trip to DC for a game with Georgetown and returns to Steel Town for two games in 48 hours, versus Seton Hall and Syracuse. Georgetown has been previewed as a First Quartile team by most publications, the road game, set in that context, and with four days of preparation, should be even more difficult. A 4-0 record through that sequence, coming on the heels of a 2-0 start (Connecticut and Providence) would definitely put Pitt in the conversation about #1 seeds (for the NCAA). If the Panthers can break even on a two game road trip through Morgantown and Philadelphia in early February they should be in a good position to close the season with no worse than the top see in the Big East Conference. Their 2/12 date with Villanova, the backend of that road trip, will be the featured event in ESPN's College GameDay Series. Should things go badly on the Mainline, Pittsburgh will have the opportunity to return the favor in their season-closing match with Villanova at the Petersen on March 5. Split that series with Villanova and have those two end the season #1/#2 in conference and the ink and electronic media will tout the probable rubber match in the Garden a week later. And both are probably looking at #1 seeds on Selection Sunday.

Further Reading
I tracked player and team efficiencies during the Panthers' Ireland Tour last month, and provided a few post game breakdowns of the team's performance. Only the first game box score gave a hint about how much time each player logged, so it was the only game where I could devevelop possession-based statistics for each player who logged time in the game...
The Panthers' first win over the Irish Natioal Team
Pittsburgh's win over a collection of players from four Southern Ireland professional clubs.
Pittsburh's second win over the Irish National Team
The Panthers' win over the Dart Killister club. Dart Killister is one of the better teams in the Ireland Premier League. After rolling over the first three teams, Pitt found the last three teams a bit more challenging.
Pittsburgh's win over the Melbourne Tiger, an Australian professional team in Ireland for a summer festival and tune-up for their season.
The Panthers' win over the English National Team. An odd game statistically, as the English shot more efficiently and got to the line more than the Panthers. The game difference came down to turnovers and rebounding, two areas where Pitt really separated themselves from the Brits.

Ireland 2010 -- Pittsburgh Downs English Nationa Team 82-69

The England National Team
Pittsburgh closed out it's 2010 Ireland Tour with an 82-69 win over the England National Team at the Odyssey Arena in Belfast, Northern Ireland, on Saturday evening. The win marks a perfect 6-0 record for the Panthers who will return to the USA on Sunday. The Odessey Arena and Ireland Basketball publicized the two day, four game event as the 2010 Belfast International Basketball Classic, with the Pittsburgh squad described as the "NCAA USA Powerhouse" Pittsburgh University Panthers" billed as the headliner. Other teams participating included the Melbourne Tigers and the England National Team, Pitts' two opponents, with the Scottish National Team rounding out the field. Pitt's official athletic website carries wire story game recap which highlights some of the play-by-play, along with a scoring summary. The official boxscore (.pdf format) is also posted on the site. The scoring by quarters...

	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	Total
Pittsburgh	25	27	16	14	82
England National Team	5	18	14	32	69

The Panthers decisively won the first quarter 25-5, jumping out to a 11-3 lead at the halfway mark of the quarter, cruising to the finish with a 14-2 run. England was stone cold from the field, converting at an 11.8% rate (2-17, 0-5, 2-12). Pitt continued their domination through the second quarter, 27-18, taking a 29 point lead (52-23) into the half. The English however, were beginning to find their range, improving their conversion rate to 45% (5-11, 1-3, 4-8). Having gathered themselves, England came out for the last two quarters and gave the Panthers a more competitive game. The Panthers found the English played them nearly even in the third quarter (16-14), the score close because the Panthers had difficulty converting their field goal attempts (6-22, 2-6, 4-16). The England Team shot at about the same accuracy as the second quarter (40% vs 45%), but failed to shave anything off of the Panthers' lead because Pittsburgh controlled the boards at both ends of the floor, simply cutting off second chance opportunities under England's basket, while (through offensive boards) giving themselves multiple opportunities to score. If the Panthers thought they could turn on the auto-pilot and cruise home, they were mistaken. Team England put on a furious, 32-14 blitz to cut the Panthers' edge to 13 before the final whistle. Taking three of the game's quarters, Pitt upped their "won quarter" mark to 20, taking 20 of the 24 quarters of basketball played on the tour. The 13 point margin of victory was the closest (for Pittsburgh) of the Tour. This game was played for just over 70 possessions (70.1), closer to Pittsburgh's comfort zone (60-65 roughly) of last season. The efficiencies and Oliver's four factors:

						FTA
	Pace	ORtg	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FGA	PPWS
Pittsburgh	70.1	117.0	42.7	10.0	47.9	18.3	0.92
England National Team		98.4	46.7	17.1	33.3	35.0	0.99

A glance at the Offensive Rating, 117.0, would leave the incurious reader with the impression this game was carried on an offensive outburst from Pitt, typical of the four games played in the south of Ireland. A closer look at the shooting and the confusion begins...a 42.7 eFG% is nothing to write home about, a lot of missed FGAs. A look over to the PPWS seems to confirm this was an off shooting night for the Panthers. Comparing Pitts' eFG% and PPWS to England's however should trigger a good round of head scratching. England shot better?! How did Pitt win (and by 13 points no less)? For the Panthers, a significant difference in turnovers was extremely helpful. In the 70 (or so) possession game, Pitt lost the ball only seven time, while England turned it over 12 times. Pitt converted possessions efficiently despite poor shooting by rebounding their misses, an awful lot of their misses. They were able to take that second (and third) shot with having the additional attempt tallied as a separate possession. A move very similar to the Georgetown teams in 2008. In the contest for 40 of those missed FGAs, Pitt won 15 times (typical would be about 10-12. More opportunities to score. The English had the best offensive night of any team facing Pitt in Ireland.

Notes
1. For the fifth straight game Coach Dixon used his entire squad, as all 14 players saw playing time. Continuing a trend initiated in virtually the second game of the tour, Coach Dixon opted to scramble his starting lineup. Tonight the back court consisted of rising junior Travon Woodall and rising senior Bradley Wannamaker. Freshman low post player JJ Richardson anchored the center, while rising junior Nasir Robinson and freshman Lamar Patterson played the #3 and #4 respectively.
2. The Woodall-Wannamaker tandem was effective logging a combined nine assists against a single turnover. Rising junior point Ashton Gibbs also posted five assists.
3. All 14 players took at least one FGA, and 12 managed to post at least a point. Gibbs, Woodall and redshirt freshman Talib Zanna co-tied with the team-high of 13 points. Those three were the only double digit scorers for Pittsburgh.
4. Only Dante Taylor picked up as many as four personals.

Next
Travel back to Dublin and take another day to tour the sights. The team will return to the USA Monday, August 9.

Ireland 2010 -- Panthers Maul Tigers 92-76, to Go 5-0

The Melbourne Tigers
The Panthers beat the Tigers of Melbourne, Australia, 92-76 at the Odyssey Arena in Belfast, Northern Ireland, running their string on the Ireland Tour to 5-0. The Melbourne Tigers, a four time champion in the Australian Premier (professional) league played a front line that featured 7-0 Utah graduate Luke Nevil and several 6-8 players who gave Pittsburgh all they could handle through the first two quarters. The Tigers, as physical as they were tall, put bodies on the younger Panthers in a contest that on paper resembled a Big East game. In all 50 fouls, including two technical fouls, one apiece assessed to each team, were called over the course of four quarters. Pittsburgh squad was paced by rising seniors Gilbert Brown and Ashton Gibbs, who scored 15 points apiece. Pitt's official athletic website carries wire story game recap which highlights some of the play-by-play, and the official boxscore which lacks player minutes. The scoring by quarters...

	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	Total
Pittsburgh	25	20	28	19	92
Melbourne Tigers	18	28	9	20	76

The Panthers upped their "won quarter" mark to 14, and took a seven point lead into the second quarter when the Tigers struck back, launching a 27 point outburst in the last 7:58 of the second quarter to outscore Pitt by 10, 27-17, and take a one point lead into the half. In another first for this tour, the Pittsburgh squad found itself on the underside of the score at the end of a quarter. Using their patented third quarter blitz, Pitt dropped a 28-9 scoring blitz of it's own on Melbourne, retook the lead, and established a working lead going into the game's remaining quarter. With a 19 point lead in hand, the Panthers "lost" the fourth quarter by a single point, 19-20, marking that as only the third quarter (out of 20) that Pitt failed to win. 19-20, to close out the game. This game was played for just under 80 possessions (79.8), became the second highest possession game on the tour so far. The efficiencies and Oliver's four factors:

						FTA
	Pace	ORtg	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FGA	PPWS
Pittsburgh	79.8	115.3	51.3	18.8	40.0	34.7	1.05
Melbourne Tigers		95.3	49.2	12.5	21.3	55.9	1.02

A review of the score hints the game was not close (a 16 point margin of victory for Pitt), but a quick comparison of each team's shot efficiency (eFG% and PPWS) (51.3 vs 49.2 and 1.05 vs 1.02) say the game was closer than the score suggests. Checking the free throw (FTA/FGA) and turnover (TO%) rates, and one might think the Panthers were on the short end of this score. The game changer, the most critical factor, it turns out, was the rebounding. The margin on offense in particular (40.0 vs 21.3) allowed Pittsburgh multiple scoring opportunities on each possession, while denying Melbourne the same. A check on the raw numbers from the box score confirms, Pittsburgh took 75 FGAs to Melbourne's 59. The Panthers used that 16 FGA differential to take eight more two point attempts and eight more three point attempts than the Tigers. Both teams may have had nearly the same conversion rate for 3FGAs (6-14 vs 9-22), but more rebounds translated into more attempts and more conversions. Pitt enjoyed a similar conversion bulge for two pointers, 25 vs 20, and that differential was enough to compensate for the additional free throws that the Australians were able to take.

Notes
1. For the fourth straight game Coach Dixon used his entire squad, going 14 deep, but used a starting line-up that may well start the first game of this season. Tonight the back court consisted of rising junior Ashton Gibbs and rising senior Bradley Wanamaker. Rising junior Gary McGhee anchored the center, while rising senior Gil Brown and red shirt freshman Talib Zanna played the #3 and #4 respectively.
2. The Gibbs-Wanamaker tandem was effective logging eight assists against four turnovers, but it was the rising senior Gilbert Brown, looking more like a point forward with each game, who dished a game-high six assists against zero turnovers. Both Wanamaker and Gibbs scored double-digit points, Gibbs (along with Gilbert Brown) logging a team-high 15 points. But both guards required volume shooting to get their numbers, going a combined 9-24 (3-12, 6-12) and 4-5 to post their combined 25 points. Off guard and point back up Travon Woodall shot a very efficient 75% eFG%, going 5-8 (2-3, 3-5) from the field while passing out four assists (versus two turnovers).
3. 11 of the 14 players who saw action scored points, six posting double-digit points. Two of the three who did not score (all freshmen) did not take an FGA.
4. Four Panthers, all front court players, were tagged with four fouls. There were no DQ's recorded.
5. Eric Devondorf, late of Syracuse University and recent signee to the Melbourne Tigers, did not play. Indeed, the former Orange wing was not in the city at all.

Next
The English National Team will be Pitt's last opponent of the 2010 Ireland Tour. The two teams face-off Saturday at 5:00 (Ireland Time) in the Odyssey Arena, Belfast. The team will return to the USA Sunday, August 8.

Ireland 2010 -- Pitt Downs Dart Killister 88-62, Goes to 4-0

Dart Killister is Good
The University of Pittsburgh downed the Dart Killister Club Team, 88-62 at Dublin City University, as the Panthers closed out the Dublin leg of their three city Irish Tour. While Pittsburgh ran their record to 4-0, Dart Killister was the closest game of the tour so far. You can find the official boxscore (lacking player minutes again) and an AP-style game recap/story if you click on the links. The recap provides a good description of the scoring runs. Gilbert Brown (per the article) received the game ball for his performance (14 points). The scoring by quarters...

	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	Total
Pittsburgh	19	20	20	29	88
Dart Killister	16	14	20	12	62

The game was "off script" early as Dart Killister jumped out to a 14-9 lead early in the first quarter. The Panthers closed the quarter out with a 10-2 run, but Dart Killister kept it close throughout the second quarter, conceding only another six points before the half. Pitt was on the good side of a 39-30 score at the mid-point. That third quarter blitz which has become something of a tour staple in Pittsburgh's first three games, did not materialize. Worse, the 20-20 draw marked the first time through three games (and the first quarter of the fourth game -- 13 quarters) that Pitt did not "win" the quarter. Still holding a nine point lead (59-50) going into the fourth quarter Coach Dixon's squad put the pedal down and blew out a 29-12 scoring margin to put the game away, 88-62. This game was played for over just over 80 possessions (80.2), about 14 possessions higher than the pace shown by Jamie Dixon-coached teams. The efficiencies and Oliver's four factors:

						FTA
	Pace	ORtg	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FGA	PPWS
Pittsburgh	80.2	109.7	49.3	24.9	53.8	30.6	1.36
Dart Killister		77.3	47.2	29.9	19.4	37.7	1.00

Was the score close because of a breakdown on Pitts' offense or defense (or both)? The ORtg's (109.7 vs 77.3) say Pitt's offense had problems. The Panthers' eFG%, 49.3 -- the first time it was below 54.0 on the tour -- suggest their shots were not dropping. A quick check of the box score shows the first half (quarters 1 & 2) were especially brutal as the Panthers went 16-38 overall (and 0-3 on three pointers). Dart Killister had problems of their own, as suggested by their 77.3 ORtg. While their shooting, inefficient, but not significantly worse than Pittsburgh's (47.2 vs Pitts' 49.3), but they were largely limited to one field goal attempt (if they got it) per trip, as their offensive rebounding, 19.4, meant they would get a second chance on about one in five misses. While Pitt did not shoot much better, they had the benefit, by virtue of grabbing nearly 1 in 2 of their misses, of several tries before relinquishing the ball to a Dart Killister defender. Dart Killister's turnover rate, 29.9 further cut into their shooting opportunities. .

Notes
1. The rotation again went 14 deep, as the staff started freshmen Cameron Wright and Lamar Patterson along side veterans Nasir Robinson, Dante Taylor (who logged his second double-double of the tour) and Travon Woodall (who dished a team-high, tied with Brad Wannamaker) five assists to go with his four points.
2. Dart Killister's Jermaine Turner scored a game-high 27 points while two Panthers, Dante Taylor and Gilbert Brown tied for the team-high 14 points in leading Pittsburgh. Brown notched double digit points in both Dublin matches.
3. As the OR%s suggest, Pittsburgh crushed their Irish opponents for the fourth straight game. The raw numbers (21-29-50 vs 7-18-25) are telling. Nasir Robingson (3-2-5), Dante Taylor (6-4-10) and Talib Zanna (3-1-4) were particularly effective on the offensive boards.

Next
Pittsburgh will take another day to see the sights, after a morning practice, and use early Friday to travel to Belfast for the last leg of their tour. The Panthers will play the Melbourne (Australia) Tigers at the Odyssey Arena in Belfast Friday night (8:30pm Ireland time). The Melbourne Tigers recently signed Eric Devendorf of Syracuse University, who completed his first season of pro ball in New Zealand in June in what promises to be an interesting reunion of sorts for the Big East players.

Ireland 2010 -- Panthers Down South Region All-Stars, 92-52

The Panthers Mix it Up
The University of Pittsburgh swept the games in their Neptune Stadium stand with a 92-52 win over the South Regional All-Star (SRAS), a collection of star players from the South Conference of the Irish Super League, before 857 fans in Cork. The Pittsburgh basketball site has the official boxscore (again with no player minutes...) and game recap/story. For those following the team, the recap gives some detail on individual player performances. The scoring by quarters...

	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	Total
Pittsburgh	19	18	32	23	92
South Region All-Stars	12	11	13	16	52

Having established a 14 point lead going into half-time, Pitt opened the third quarter with a 10-2 run to push the SRAS at something farther than an arm's length. Holding a 33 point lead going into the fourth quarter, the Panthers eased off a bit and cruised home. Unlike the exhibition-paced game against the Irish National Team, this one featured a more deliberate 64.9 possessions, much closer to the tempo preferred by the Panthers teams developed by Coach Dixon. The efficiencies and Oliver's four factors:

	Off		FTA
	Eff	eFG%	FGA	OReb%	TO%
Pittsburgh	138.2	54.4	16.3	69.8	18.0
South Region All-Stars	78.1	41.2	24.6	34.0	33.0

Pitt's offensive efficiency, again over 130.0 (very, very strong) shows a healthy differential from their defensive efficiency (SRAS' offensive efficiency) of 78.0. If their shot conversion efficiency (eFG% 54.4) was not in the high 50's/low 60's, the Panthers limited their turnovers (18.0) and grabbed an astounding 69.8% of their own misses. Their low FTA/FGA (unusual for a team that plays as physically as Pitt) was probably a result of their offenisve shift to the outside in the last two quarters. Pitt perimeter scorers launched 11 3FGAs in the third and fourth quarters. Offense tends to draw fan (and media) attention, but defense wins games, especially the tight ones. The Panthers pressured the ball (TO% of 33.0) and contested shots (eFG% at 41.2), two crucial elements to their traditional approach to defense.

Observations
1. The rotation went 14 deep for this game, a good indication Pitt was not pressured at any point in the game.
2. Freshman JJ Moore, rising sophomore Talib Zanna and rising senior Gilbert Brown had particularly efficient outings. Each scored double digit points (Zanna logged a double-double) while posting eFGs >75.0.
3. A rules quirk, freshmen are not allowed to play before classes convene, kept the freshmen out of game 1. All four of Pitt's entering class saw action on Sunday. Aron Nwankwo, J.J. Moore and Cameron Wright logged minutes versus the SRAS, with Moore posting a game-high 14 points, an eFG% of 77.8%, on 6-9 (2-3,4-6) and 0-0 shooting.

Next
The Panthers travel to Dublin, where they will stay Monday through Thursday. After a day of sightseeing, they will have a second game, at Dublin City University, on Tuesday evening.

Ireland 2010 -- Pittsburgh Defeats the Irish National Team 99-54

The Runnin' Panthers?
The University of Pittsburgh opened their tour of Ireland with a 99-54 drubbing of the Irish National Team before 1,650 fans in Neptune Stadium, in Cork, Ireland. Team Ireland led 6-2 in the first quarter, but were stunned by a 15-0 run and never recovered. The Pittsburgh basketball site has the official boxscore and game recap/story. For those interested in following the daily comings and goings of the team, the site also provides a daily blog of the tour.

The game was played for a slightly surprising 74.1 possessions, well above the Panthers' 62.9 possessions from the 2010 season (consistent with previous seasons pace), and more consistent with an exhibition game. The efficiencies and Oliver's four factors:

	Off		FTA
	Eff	eFG%	FGA	OReb%	TO%
Pittsburgh	133.7	65.7	23.9	60.7	29.7
Irish National Team	72.9	39.3	19.6	27.6	21.6

Probably the best predictor of the result was the nearly identical allocation of minutes among the players (see below). Had the Irish offered much resistence, Coach Dixon no doubt would have allocated a few more minutes to the starters. The offensive efficiency, field goal efficiency (eFG%) and offensive rebounding numbers were predictable. A team accustomed to winning most of their board battles in the Big East handled the Irish National Team easily. The FTA/FGA was low, about 18.9 points below their 42.8% of 2010. The product of an unusually high 3FGA/2FGA ratio (35.8% vs 2010's 29.1%) possibly, or more likely the point spread through much of the second half -- Pitt led by 12, 48-36, at half-time, but blew the game open in the third quarter, outscoring Team Ireland 24-10. Putting up another 27 fourth quarter points, and Pitt outscored Ireland in the second half to the tune of 51-18, a truly overwhelming performance. With scoring that disparate, there was no reason to force the issue and get to the line. The Panthers' 29% turnover rate is the one sour note on the contest, but consider that the staff reached very deep into the bench and no doubt mixed player combinations to the point where unfamiliar pairings had to work together. The very large leads throughout the second half may have encouraged a more relaxed attitude about possessions, or a bit more creative playmaking. As the table below suggests, the problem appears to have centered on only a handful of players.

							FTA
Player	%Min	Poss%	Shot%	ORtg	eFG%	PPWS	FGA
Nasir Robinson	45.0	16.4	13.3	156.7	100.0	1.88	75.0
Gilbert Brown	45.0	34.1	39.8	116.7	83.3	1.71	16.7
Gary McGhee	45.0	13.8	10.0	120.1	66.7	1.55	66.7
Brad Wanamaker	47.5	28.3	18.9	165.5	83.3	1.74	33.3
Ashton Gibbs	47.5	43.7	47.1	99.8	56.7	1.13	0.0
Travon Woodall	45.0	32.3	19.9	69.4	50.0	1.00	0.0
Dante Taylor	45.0	18.5	16.6	112.5	60.0	1.11	60.0
Talib Zanna	45.0	17.3	13.3	99.1	75.0	1.50	0.0
Lamar Patterson	45.0	36.4	26.5	81.7	43.8	0.86	37.5
J.J. Richardson	45.0	4.8	6.6	207.0	100.0	2.05	50.0
Nick Rivers	45.0	6.9	6.6	31.2	0.0	0.00	0.0

While it is silly to draw broad conclusions based on a single exhibition game (or tour for that matter), possession and shot rates suggest what most Pitt observers have been saying since the end of the 2010 season -- that the offense will run through junior point guard Ashton Gibbs and senior forward Gilbert Brown. This was the fourth consecutive off season in which Pitt observers have predicted a "break out" year for the athletic forward. Maybe they are right this time. Luke Harangody racked up possession and shot rates in the 33%-35% range last season, presenting problems for Notre Dame's offense. Look for Gibbs' and Brown's possession and shot rates to drop as the tour goes on. And next season, something in the 27-29% range, provided Brown holds to those same efficiency numbers (and Gibbs can elevate his a bit) will earn both players conference (and most likely national) recognition. A look at the assist rates and rebounding...

	Ast%	OR%	DR%	TO%	Blk%	Stl%
Nasir Robinson	15.3	7.9	7.7	18.3	0.0	3.0
Gilbert Brown	0.0	7.9	15.3	17.6	0.0	0.0
Gary McGhee	0.0	15.9	7.7	21.7	0.0	3.0
Brad Wanamaker	71.2	0.0	7.3	10.1	0.0	8.5
Ashton Gibbs	36.2	0.0	7.3	6.5	0.0	2.8
Travon Woodall	26.5	0.0	0.0	37.1	0.0	9.0
Dante Taylor	0.0	31.7	38.3	0.0	0.0	0.0
Talib Zanna	0.0	31.7	38.3	34.7	0.0	0.0
Lamar Patterson	21.3	23.8	23.0	16.5	0.0	3.0
J.J. Richardson	0.0	0.0	7.7	0.0	0.0	3.0
Nick Rivers	5.8	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

The board domination is led by rising sophomores Dante Taylor and Talib Zanna, two front court players who had less impact than many expected their first year out. I will be interested to see how Coach Dixon works them into the rotation.

Next...
Pittsburgh will play the Southern Regional All-Stars in Neptune Stadium on Sunday, then travel to Dublin to continue their tour.