On Second Thought -- Plotting Trendlines for Big East Teams (pt 1)

What Funny Shapes Can Teach Us...
I liked tj's original post on mapping Michigan State's efficiency trends during the 2008 season when I read read it years ago, mapping the trend over time could be useful. The graph itself however was visually busy; the trendlines got lost as MSU's offensive and defensive efficiencies (points per possession scored and allowed) gyrated, game-by-game. Which leads us to the real problem of measuring team efficiency over a series of games (in conference out of conference, through a tournament, etc.) -- adjusting the performance to account for the competition. The conference regular season, which offered a more balanced schedule than a composite out of conference slate of opponents, should be a better context for judging performance over time. The bloggers over at Maize-Colored Glasses Blog put together an outstanding set of alphabetically correct posts that mapped each Big Ten team's trends over the course of conference play. I was so impressed with the methodologies described in the "Polynomial-centric Recap: Part 1" that I decided to apply the method (unadjusted and adjusted) for a similar look at the Big East. I describe the techniques later in this post. From the bottom up, (alphabetically correct of course) the conference's last five teams shared some features. The conference standings/seeds for the Big East Tournament:

	W	L	Pct.
Pittsburgh	15	3	0.833
Notre Dame	14	4	0.776
Syracuse	12	6	0.667
Louisville	12	6	0.667
St. John's	12	6	0.667
Cincinnati	11	7	0.611
West Virginia	11	7	0.611
Georgetown	10	8	0.556
Connecticut	9	9	0.500
Villanova	9	9	0.500
Marquette	9	9	0.500
Seton Hall	7	11	0.389
Rutgers	5	13	0.278
Providence	4	14	0.222
South Florida	3	15	0.167
DePaul	1	17	0.056

(16 #16) DePaul

Not an ironic commentary on DePaul's season...honest

I rechecked the numbers and calculations when the fish appeared. The unadjusted trendlines look much the same. Coach Oliver Purnell will bring the program along next season, but seeing offense and defense move in such a symmetrical way throughout the entire season suggests (perhaps) that some nights his young Blue Demon squad got it and other nights not at all. The late season "fish tail" was probably a morale-induced slump. More experienced players should make a difference.

(14 #14) Providence

It was the defense...again

Throughout the Tim Welsh and Keno Davis Eras the Friars have been a Notre Dame Lite -- good offense but little defense. This season was no exception, and Marshon Brooks alone could not carry the team night-in and night-out. Lack of progress no doubt the catalyst that led to Davis' departure, Ed Cooley has been charged to turn things around. One common trait of the teams in the fourth quartile is that the defensive efficiency trendline never falls below the team's offensive efficiency trendline. Though everyone of the four team that finished #13 through #16 won at least one game, winning was neither prevalent (all had winning percentages <0.400) nor sustained for any period of the conference season.

(13 #13) Rutgers

An end of season rally...

The unadjusted trendline suggests the Rutgers players were "getting it" -- Coach Mike Rice's system as the season progressed. Though the Scarlet Knights went 1-3 through the last four games, the defense appears to have stabilized even as their offensive efficiency improved. Note that by the 18th game (a season-ending, 74-75 loss to Providence), trendlines for offensive and defensive efficiency seem poised to cross. And the Knights went on to win their next game, 76-70 in overtime over Seton Hall in the Tuesday night round of the Big East Tournament. The trendline chart adjusted for the competition however suggests something a bit different...

...or a modest slump?

Providence and DePaul, teams that finished #14 and #16 respectively, were Rutgers' last two regular season opponents. The Knights' performance (a 1-1 record on games with margins of +3 and -1 points), coupled with the "fish tail" curve of the trendlines suggest that the team was slumping more than rallying, as the season drew to a close. The win over Seton Hall, an instate rival with whom the Scarlet Knights drew 1-1 on the season, does not refute the trend. It will be interesting to see what Coach Rice does with a squad made up largely of players he recruited.

(12 #12) Seton Hall

The trendlines are consistent with a losing record...

The trendlines converge and cross just before the end of the season (for the curious, game #14 for the Pirates was Villanova). The wave motion is similar to South Florida's (see below), but unlike the teams that finished #13 - #16, the trendline for the Pirates' offensive efficiency crossed to the north of their defensive efficiency trendline, an element the Hall held in common with the other 11 members who finished in the upper three quartiles.

Coach Willard's system was beginning to work

The Hall's last two regular season games, both wins, over St. John's and Marquette, were a huge boost for the adjusted numbers. The Johnnies were seeded #5 in the Big East Tournament and managed to draw a #6 seed in the NCAA Tournament, while Marquette finished the Big East regular season with a 9-9 record, drew a #11 seed in the NCAA Tournament and ran to the Sweet Sixteen.

(15 #15) South Florida

The wave pattern?

Having finished #9, drawing an NIT bid and losing Dominique Jones all in 2010, the Bulls were poised for a rebuilding year, and 2011 lived down to those expectations. The wave pattern (the adjusted version above is consistent with the unadjusted trendlines), which features the trendline for defensive efficiency always above the offensive efficiency trendline, by (more or less) a consistent margin, throughout the conference season. With a 3-15 conference record (10-23 overall) and a cumulative conference record of 51-77 in 4 seasons, I wonder, lacking a clear sign of improvement next season, how much longer Coach Stan Heath will pace the sidelines in Tampa.

Methods & Sources
I used Ken Pomeroy's website, specifically each Big East team's gameplan pages, as the data source for each team's offensive and defensive efficiencies for each conference game played (many thanks to Ken Pomeroy for providing this invaluable resource for the past eight seasons). I plotted the data points for offense and defense and then applied a third order polynomial to map the trend line. Those charts are captioned as "Unadjusted" in this and subsequent posts. The conference average for points per possession in 2011 (conference games only) was 1.037. I adjusted each team's offensive and defensive points per possession for each game using the formulas documented by the Maize-Colored Glasses Blog...
offensive adjustment -- (100 x points per possession)/(1-(opponents average points per possession allowed - conference-wide average points per game allowed)). Given the Big East average points per possession was 1.037, that simplified the adjustment to (100 x points per possession)/(opponents average points per possession allowed - 0.037)
defensive adjustment -- (100 x points per possession allowed)/(opponents average points per possession - 0.037)
A strong defensive effort against Notre Dame would be properly weighted versus a strong defensive effort against DePaul.

Offensive points per possession for each team (ordered by PPP Scored):

		PPP
	Team	Scored
1	Notre Dame	1.130
2	Pittsburgh	1.105
3	Marquette	1.103
4	Syracuse	1.078
5	Villanova	1.077
6	West Virginia	1.049
7	Louisville	1.034
8	Cincinnati	1.030
9	Georgetown	1.026
10T	St. John's	1.022
10T	Connecticut	1.022
12	Providence	1.010
13	Rutgers	1.009
14	South Florida	0.972
15T	Seton Hall	0.958
15T	DePaul	0.958

Defensive points per possession for each team (ordered by fewest points per possession allowed):

		PPP
	Team	Allowed
1	Pittsburgh	0.960
2	Louisville	0.967
3	Cincinnati	0.981
4	Seton Hall	0.987
5	Syracuse	0.989
6	St. John's	1.001
7T	West Virginia	1.004
7T	Connecticut	1.004
9	Georgetown	1.037
10	Notre Dame	1.055
11	Villanova	1.062
12	Marquette	1.070
13	Rutgers	1.082
14	South Florida	1.094
15	Providence	1.111
16	DePaul	1.172

2010-11 Preview -- South Florida Bulls

Too Busy for the Details?
After surging to a 9-9 conference record in 2010, the highest conference win total since joining the Big East in 2006, the Bulls have some rebuilding to do. Coach Stan Heath has to replace an entire back court (typically the strong point of Heath-coached teams). The Bulls bring in a nice mix of 'new' (true freshmen) and 'old' (transfers & JUCOs), but it will take time (more than one season).  Prognosis -- A 4th quartile finish.

3 Years At a Glance
The Bulls' record tracks with returning minutes, suggesting the players under Heath do improve over time. Most of the minutes/points returning come from the front court -- as noted by the (much) higher percentage of returning offensive rebounds than returning three pointers made.

	Returning...
	2011	2010	2009
%Min	42.0	62.9	55.0
%Pts	24.9	65.2	64.4
%FGM	37.9	66.1	55.7
%3FGM	24.8	66.2	66.9
%OReb	60.9	47.5	44.8
%DReb	46.1	57.6	45.1
%TReb	50.8	54.1	45.0

Dominique Jones, currently playing for the Mavericks, took 30% of the Bulls' shots while he was on the floor (and he was on the court a lot, logging over 90% of the off guard minutes in 2010). That is a very large offensive role to replace, especially since a single guard-in-waiting (transfer Anthony Crater) from the 2010 roster returns for 2011. Troubling too given the Bulls' rise in conference standing coincided with a marked improvement in their offense...mostly departed with DoJo (see According to Pomeroy... table below).

	According to Pomeroy...
	2009-10		2008-09		2007-08
	#	Rank	#	Rank	#	Rank
BE Off Eff	103.5	11	93.6	14	98.4	13
BE Def Eff	109.2	12	106.3	10	108.6	14
BE Off eFG%	47.2	14	43.5	16	46.6	14
BE Off FTRate	43.2	1	31.2	8	39.2	4
BE Off TO%	18.8	9	18.6	8	19.6	9
BE Off Reb%	36.1	T7	34.5	8	33.8	7
BE Def eFG%	50.4	13	48.8	6	50.1	10
BE Def Reb%	36.1	11	34.5	11	34.6	12

South Florida's offensive efficiency improved enough in 2010 to lift the Bulls out of the Big East's 4th quartile and into the NIT. The offense looks for points inside the arc (USF scored 57.7% and 24.4% of their points from 2FGAs and FTMs respectively, good for a #33 -- out of 347 -- ranking per Ken Pomeroy) either converting 2FGAs or getting to the free throw line. While offensive rebounding and turnovers have remained constant over the past three seasons, the Bulls converted field goal attempts marginally better in 2010 than 2009, and got to the line more. Defensive rebounding (defense overall actually) continued to be anemic despite the succession of well-regarded low post bigs featured in Bulls' lineups since 2006.

	For the Record...
	2009-10			2008-09			2007-08
	W	L	Pct.	W	L	Pct.	W	L	Pct.
Overall	20	13	0.606	9	22	0.290	12	19	0.387
Big East	9	9	0.500	4	14	0.222	3	15	0.167
Post Season?	NIT Rnd #1			BET Rnd #1			NA

How far back does South Florida slide? The scoring percentages suggest a 2-3 win season, but I suspect Caoch Heath has other plans. The offense will most likely move closer to the basket and balance a bit better between front court and back court scoring.

The Bulls' Nucleus
Coach Stan Heath's biggest task this season will be developing South Florida's reshaped back court, composed largely of entering freshmen, JUCOs, and with a several returning rotation players (Noriega and Crater) into an effective offensive unit. The new elements have to work with the more experienced front court trio of Gus Gilchrist, Jared Famous and Toarlyn Fitzpatrick. Several will have to take up the offensive role assigned to DoJo, there is a plethora of guards (seven in all, in the range of 5-11 to 6-6) to choose from, mostly two or so will collectively cover the points provided by Jones.

On Offense
Player	Min%	Ortg	Poss%	Shot%	eFG%	OR%	PPWS	FTR%
Jarrid Famous	71.4	102.0	20.8	19.4	52.7	12.2	1.11	50.6
Toarlyn Fitzpatrick	54.8	85.5	15.1	13.8	41.0	9.4	0.88	43.6
Augustus Gilchrist	38.1	104.8	25.3	24.6	52.4	9.3	1.16	54.5
Anthony Crater	33.8	80.9	11.5	11.3	38.1	1.6	0.79	25.4

Gilchrist and Dominique Jones were a significant "inside/less inside" threat last season. DoJo maybe gone, but Gilchrist is back. If he can stay healthy, he should have a large and positive impact on the offense, as the #1 or #2 option. The task for Coach Heath is to develop an outside threat and most probably at least one more consistent offensive option. Fitzpatrick had a typical freshman season. He should improve with experience. With offensive rebounding rates in the range of 9.3 to 12.2, all three of the front court players are keepers. Coach Heath should be able to find time for each.

On Defense
Player	Min%	DR%	Ast%	TO%	Stl%	Blk%
Jarrid Famous	71.4	16.9	3.8	20.4	2.2	1.0
Toarlyn Fitzpatrick	54.8	14.0	3.2	23.3	4.4	1.7
Augustus Gilchrist	38.1	14.6	4.2	20.0	3.4	0.5
Anthony Crater	33.8	6.7	13.3	24.9	0.5	2.6

Note the turnover rates for Famouns, Fitzpatrick and Gilchrist -- all were in the range of 20% or more. Cut down on the turnovers alone and each would increase by 5% - 7% on offensive efficiency. Anthony Crater, the Ohio State transfer who accounted for 33.8% of the playing time in a backcourt position last season, will most likely start at pg, though like Famous, Fitzpatrick and Gilchrist, he will have to limit his turnovers to be effective. Other returnees include sophomore deep bench guards Shaun Noriega who logged 68 minutes in 20 games last season and Mike Burwell who logged 92 minutes in 19 games.

Significant Additions
Coach Heath brings in a mix of true freshmen (2), transfers (1) and JUCOs (3); five of the six are guards. Among the freshmen, the coach's own son, 5-11 Jordan Heath, a point guard out of Tampa Prep is a walk-on. The other is 6-0, 200 pound LaVonte Dority of Edwin G. Foreman, Chicago. The last three guards, all JUCOs include 6-0 185 pound Shadrick Haynes, out of Lackawanna College, 6-5 195 pound Hugh Robertson, from Tallahassee CC and (possibly the most intriguing...) Jawanza Poland, a 6-4, 195 off guard who sat last season for Hutchinson CC after transferring in from Cowley College in Wichita, Kansas. Poland has not played organized (collegiate) ball in over 18 monthes. Count him very ready to get things going. Ron Anderson, a 6-8 255 pound bfc transferred in from Kansas State in 2009, has sat his year per the NCAA rules, and will be available at the beginning of this season. Anderson has two years of eligibility remaining.

Explode If...
1. Gilchrist can have a breakout season, but the Bulls will need more to match (or come close to) last season's nine conference wins. Someone from the back court or wing (Haynes? Poland?) will have to combine with a consistent third scoring option if opposing defenses are to be kept off balance. The third option won't have to be the same player each game, but between Famous, Crater, Robertson and Anderson, some combination will most likely have to contribute nine-tem points each game.
2. Find a perimeter game from among the new players. South Florida converted three point attempts at an attrocious 28.3% rate (all play) last season, ranking them #338 out of 347 in Division 1. Gilchrist and Famous should be able to keep defenses honest, but someone has to convert long-range attemtps consistently.
3. Rebounding is an area where significant improvement will translate immediately into more efficient defense. Despite having length and low post mass, the Bulls consistently ranked in the bottom third of the conference for defensive rebounding.


Implode If...
1. The players do not mesh. The back court, JUCOs and true freshmen, were assembled in the monthes after last April. Poland, Haynes, Robertson and Crater have had only fall practice together as a full squad. At the very least the out of conference should be interesting.
2. Off court distractions seem to be an annual recurring theme with the program. While most seem to be silly scrapes resulting from not thinking things through, player-on-player incidents, the type that can destroy team cohesion, have also happened.

Crucial Run/Bellweather Games
The out of conference (OOC) schedule is light on above "The Red Line" opponents, counting a maybe Texas Tech (South Padre Island Invitational, possible second round opponent...) have two. Auburn, visiting Tampa (a home-away agreement perhaps?) is heavy with newcomers, including their coach, and projected by many to finish at the bottom of the SEC Western Division, will probably not help the Bulls' RPI. There are however, a number of below The Red Line opponents who can nick up South Florida's record going into conference play. Chief culprits -- Brigham Young (Mountain West Conference) and Southern Mississippi (Conference USA), both of whom are expected to make the NCAAs in 2011. The Golden Eagles will open the Bulls' season at the Sun Dome, while the Cougars are the Bulls' first round opponent at South Padre Island. A second tier of below-the-Red-Liners includes Colonial Athletic Association members Virginia Commonwealth and James Madison, considered the class of the CAA, traditional rival Central Florida (CUSA, and with a new coach) and possibly West Coast Conference member St. Mary's. The Gaels will most likely not dance in the 2011 post season, but Coach Randy Bennett brings back three starters from the team that ran to the Sweet Sixteen. Sporting a record of 10-3 or better going into their conference opener (a road game against Seton Hall) would be bode well for Bull prospects, but not realistic.

Breaking down the Bulls' 9-9 2010 record, the key was holding serve (6-3) at home, while taking a few road games. Matching that win total may be a stretch without Jones, but if Coach Heath can coax five wins out of the conference schedule, South Florida can escape the fourth quartile for the second consecutive season. Drawing DePaul, Providence and Pittsburgh was definitely a mixed blessing. The Panthers will dominate while the Friars will struggle, so the mirror break will come with DePaul. The Demons will be sitting ducks on the road, but Oliver Purnell should have them playing better at home. Drawing that game late in the season may help USF, especially if they are within striking distance of five (or better wins). The five game stretch from the middle of January to early February should be a good predictor for the season, as that draw contains four winnable games: Providence at home (1/16), Rutgers (1/20, road), a trip to Morgantown (1/23, an improbable win), DePaul (1/27, at home) and closing out at Providence (2/2). If they can win four out of that run the chances of having five wins going into the BET are very good.

Guest Contributor Ray Floriani: At the Big East Tournament Day 2

by Ray Floriani

NEW YORK CITY - Georgetown and Syracuse have staged some epic battles. In fact they have met twelve times in Big East Tournament play. Tomorrow will be 13 as Georgetown defeated South Florida 69-49 to open the second round at Madison Square Garden. The four factors and efficiency in a 62 possession contest:

			FTM
	ORtg	eFG%	FGA	OR%	TO%
South Florida	80	30	29	41	20
Georgetown	111	52	14	33	16

Defense was the key for the Hoyas. South Florida 33% from two point range. The Bulls were 0 for 8 from three against DePaul but USF coach Stan Heath said he has shooters and they would have to hit a few or more from the perimeter against the Hoyas. The Bulls were 1 of 10 beyond the arc and did not hit a three until 20 seconds remained and the game was in hand.

Dominique Jones of USF led all scorers with 21 points but he did not get help as Georgetown , as noted, defended very well. South Florida did win the battle of the boards with an 18-11 edge on the glass.

Hoya band battles Seton Hall band

Their turnover rate was too high especially for a game of this pace. Jones had 6 of USF’s 12 turnovers but the outstanding junior guard was virtually the only player on his team taking a consistent offensive initiative.

USF had an edge on the foul line. Chalk it up to stiff ling Hoya defense that at times got a little too aggressive. Jason Clark and Greg Monroe both scored 16 points as John Thompson III’s club had a balanced attack.

Georgetown had a 32-28 edge in scoring in the paint. Not a big surprise as USF struggled from the perimeter, even on fifteen footers.

“I’m pleased with our focus. When they (South Florida) made a run early second half we didn’t get frustrated” - John Thompson III

Out for a stroll on the Garden floor

Preview 2009-10 -- South Florida Bulls

Too Busy for the Details?
Coach Stan Heath heads into his 3rd season at the helm in Tampa with a decent nucleus of returning players -- the centerpiece of which is junior 3rd Team All-Big East Dominique Jones -- and a mixed bag of JUCOs and true freshman to fill out the roster. Jones is a good player to build a team around, but if the prolific scorer is called on to carry this team, the 2009-10 season will be remembered by the South Florida faithful as a disappointment. The Bulls will improve on their 2009 4-14 Big East record/#14th place finish, the only question is how much. Prognosis -- A 4th quartile finish.

3 Years At a Glance

	Returning...
	2010	2009	2008
%Min	70.9	55.0	55.1
%Pts	71.6	56.4	52.8
%FGM	69.8	55.7	50.4
%3FGM	67.5	66.9	39.6
%OReb	58.4	44.8	57.4
%DReb	65.9	45.1	55.1
%TReb	63.3	45.0	55.8

The 2010 edition of the Bulls will be the most experienced squad South Florida has fielded since they joined the Big East in 2006. Coach Heath will return starters at the #1, #2, #4 and #5. There are no rehabbing red shirts for the first time in 2 - 3 seasons. And the Bulls have some Big East-level talent returning in the form of Dominique Jones who made the All Rookie team in 2008 and was an All-Big East Honorable Mention last season.

	According to Pomeroy...
	2008-09		2007-08		2006-07
	#	Rank	#	Rank	#	Rank
Overall ORtg	100.6	84	106.5	108	101.5	168
Overall DRtg	98.1	112	97.4	99	96.9	91
Big East ORtg	93.6	14	93.6	16	92.5	14
Big East DRtg	106.3	10	106.3	14	106.4	14
Four Factors -- Overall
All Off. eFG%	44.8	318	48.8	207	49.3	200
All Off. TOv%	19.6	121	20.0	108	24.9	317
All Off. OReb%	34.5	105	35.2	83	35.2	101
All Off. FTA/FGA	34.9	206	43.0	27	47.7	7
All Def. eFG%	47.2	83	48.7	113	47.5	72
All Def. TOv%	17.6	318	18.3	302	19.7	245
All Def. OReb%	34.9	263	33.1	177	33.4	161
All Def. FTA/FGA	37.7	208	33.9	117	31.7	73
Four Factors -- Big East
BE Off. eFG%	43.5	16	46.6	14	47.3	10
BE Off. TOv%	18.6	8	19.6	9	23.8	16
BE Off. OReb%	34.5	8	33.8	7	32.6	9
BE Off. FTA/FGA	31.0	10	39.2	4	44.3	1
BE Def. eFG%	48.8	6	50.1	10	49.6	11
BE Def. TOv%	16.7	14	16.2	14	16.6	14
BE Def. OReb%	34.5	11	34.6	12	34.8	11
BE Def. FTA/FGA	34.9	10	38.4	9	31.9	7
Miscellanious
All Gms Cons	21.7	232	21.3	204	26.7	327
All Gms Luck	-.066	306	-.108	335	-.073	305

That blip in the overall offensive rating in 2007-08 was Kentrell Gransberry, the Bulls' 6-11 center transfer (from LSU) who led the team for 2 seasons before moving on. Coupled with (then freshman) Dominique Jones, the pair provided Coach Heath with a very good inside-out attack. Conference play last season saw South Florida continually plagued by an inability to convert possessions into points -- see their Big East offensive rating of 93.6 -- largely due to shooting. Note Four Factors offensive stats that show the Bulls ranked in the middle of the conference in turnovers, offensive rebounds and getting to the free throw line...and at the bottom for field goal conversion (eFG%). Dominique Jones is a tremendous offensive threat, but he is the only weapon in the Bulls' 2009 arsenal. And everyone in the conference knows it. The guy would be even more effective if USF had a consistent low post threat (think Gransberry here), or someone (else) on the wing who could stick it consistently (maybe Mike Mercer?).

	For the Record...
	2008-09			2007-08			2006-07
	W	L	Pct.	W	L	Pct.	W	L	Pct.
Overall	9	22	0.290	12	19	0.387	12	18	0.400
Big East	4	14	0.222	3	15	0.167	3	13	0.188
Post Season?	BET/Rnd 1			No			No

The Bulls' Nucleus
Coach Stan Heath will bring back a decent collection of players for 2010, the best squad he has had since arriving in Tampa. It only took him 3 seasons, but he finally has a big or two to go with his wing gunner. And a point guard who can get them the ball.

On Offense
Player	Min%	ORtg	Poss%	Shot%	eFG%	PPWS	OR%	FTR%
Jones	93.3	104.3	28.8	29.8	47.7	1.03	5.8	37.1
Howard	84.9	92.1	17.9	15.1	41.8	0.92	2.8	46.5
Gilchrist	48.5	87.6	27.3	30.4	43.3	0.91	7.7	31.4
Sanchez	43.0	89.8	15.6	12.9	53.3	1.09	8.5	51.1
Leemow	39.0	71.9	11.4	11.7	30.3	0.63	1.4	14.5

Note that of the returning members of the squad, only #2 guard Dominque Jones had an ORtg >100. Jones was pretty much the offensive show. He drew "Go-to Guy" level shots and possessions as the Bulls stuttered when Jones was cold. Coach Heath has worked to bring a few more scoring options onto the Bull's roster this season.

On Defense
Player	Min%	DR%	Ast%	TO%	Stl%	Blk%
Dominique Jones	93.3	10.9	28.7	15.6	1.1	2.3
Chris Howard	84.9	10.0	26.4	23.5	0.5	2.0
Augustus Gilchrist	48.5	12.9	5.4	16.2	4.2	0.7
Alex Rivas Sanchez	43.0	21.0	1.3	27.5	3.0	2.1
Justin Leemow	39.0	7.7	15.2	24.0	0.2	2.4

The Bulls will need defensive rebounding if they are to compete effectively in the Big East. Gilchrist, more a #4 than a #5, was a below average defensive rebounder last season. He will no doubt get better with experience alone, but the Bulls will need more immediate help with their opponent's misses. Sanchez and Howard have to cut down on their turnovers if they expect to see the court much this season, as possible upgrades will be available off the bench.

Significant Additions
Looking at his 3rd season in Tampa, Coach Heath's recruiting has not quite shifted away from "tryout mode" to something more selective. After bringing in 6 players for the 2008-09 season (3 of whom will be with the team going into this season), he will bring in another 6 new players, including a single JUCO (6-11, 240lb #5, Jarrid Famous), a single transfer (6-1, 170 lb #1 Anthony Crater moving over from Ohio State) who will be eligible at the end of the fall semester to back up senior Chris Howard, and 4 true freshmen, 2 of whom, 6-6 #2/#3 Mike Burwell from East Brunswick, NJ by way of Kent Prep and 6-5, 225lb, #3 Jordan Dumars, son of NBA player Joe Dumars, who, if he doesn't draw much PT, will certainly get local ink. The last two, locals #2 guard 6-4 Shaun Noriega and 6-8 #4 Toarlyn Fitzpatrick, fill out the class.

Famous will provide the low post presence missing since Kentrell Gransberry took his game to the NBA's D-League at the end of the 2008 season. Burwell, a 5th year senior was the leading scorer at Kent Prep, taking a good many shots from beyond the arc. If Burwell and Famous are as effective in the Big East as they were at their previous stops, junior scorer Dominique Jones should really be able to operate. Absent an inside threat in 2009 (and having reviewed 2008 USF game films of Jones' very prolific freshman campaign), opposing defenses tended to concentrate on shutting Jones down, and did so fairly effectively. Georgia transfer Mike Mercer, eligible to play in 2009, but dismissed from the team in January 2009, was reinstated in late August by Coach Heath. Mercer played 125 minutes scoring 34 points in his very short, 4 games career with the Bulls.

Explode If...
1. Famous, Sanchez & Gilchrist can provide effective low post presence. The Bulls need a credible threat in the paint -- Howard should be able to deliver the ball, but can one of the 3 finish?
2. One, preferably more than one of Mercer (best bet?), Leemow, Shaun Noriaga or Mike Burwell finds his shooting eye. More threats, inside and outside will make Jones more effective. It's called synergy.

Implode If...
Chemistry/discipline problems or catastrophic injuries aside, it is difficult to see this program falling. After all, it's not very far from #14 to #16. The Bulls won a record (for their time in the Big East) 4 conference games last season. This squad should have more Big East-level talent and be deeper than 2009 (or 2008 for that matter). 1. Opponents key on Jones and no one else can convert field goals. Not very likely given Mercer and Gilchrist, both of whom are not bashful about putting up shots.

Crucial Run/Bellweather Games
The Bulls face an early season test as they open the season hosting Virginia of the ACC in Tamps. Part of an effort to upgrade their schedule, the Bulls will also face Kent State in late November. After Virginia they will participate in the 2009 Charleston Classic, facing Southern Conference power Davidson in the first round. The second round game will pit them opposite the winner/loser of the South Carolina/La Salle game. The La Salle team is expected to challenge for a top spot in the A10 conference and a possible post season bid this season, while South Carolina earned an NIT bid for their work last season. A couple of wins in this early schedule will definitely boost the Bull's RPI/SOS (not to mention their confidence) going into conference play.

After opening in Louisville on 12/30, the Bulls return to Tampa to host Notre Dame (on Tuesday 1/6/2010), this tilt should provide a clue about their season. The Irish do not travel well, suffered an unexpected early season road loss to St. John's in 2009, and lost to the Bulls in Tampa back in 2006-07. Can it happen again? The Bulls' two game homestand in late January (Seton Hall on 1/28, followed by Pitt on 1/31) may be a good barometer. Win either or both, or at the very least make them competitive, and the South Florida fan-base will have reason for optimism. With home games against Rutgers (1/16), Cincinnati (2/16), St. John's (2/20) and Providence (2/27), the opportunities for 5 or more wins are in place for the Bulls. Combine with road games against a few programs expected to be in down cycles (Providence -- 1/23; Marquette -- 2/13; DePaul -- 3/2), and improvement on their 2009 finish is possible. The three game sequence in mid-February (@Marquette -- 2/13; home with Cincinnati -- 2/16 & St. John's -- 2/20) should yield at least one win, with 3-0 or 2-1 being very strong indicators that the Bulls are ready to run.