So How Good is South Florida?

Oops, Maybe?
I had the Bulls pegged for the fourth quartile (somewhere in the #13-#16 range) this season, even as I applauded their surge into the third quartile and NIT bid from last season. But not to be this time around, because too much talent (ie Dominique Jones) and experience (Chris Howard, Mike Mercer, etc.) had departed over the off season. Maybe not. South Florida took down VCU 60-59 in overtime last night, an outcome even Ken Pomeroy did not predict (the Bull's Team page will be updated by the time you read this, but he projected a VCU 69-67 win to a 59% certainty).

I know most Big East fans are asking "who the heck is VCU?". The Rams of Virginia Commonwealth University is out of the CAA conference, are coached by Shaka Smart, won the CBI post season tournament last season and have already made some noise this season. They housed Wake Forest by 21, lost to Tennessee by 5 in New York City last week (Villanova lost to the Vols by 10) and they beat UCLA by 4 to take 3rd place in the NIT Tip-Off.

South Florida is 5-3 now, having lost to Southern Mississippi (by 7 at home), Central Florida (by 6 away) and Brigham Young (by 2 in OT at the South Padre Invitational). The next few weeks will tell whether Anthony Crater (transfer from Ohio State) and Jawanza Poland (JUCO from Hutchinson CC) will be able to pick up where Jones, Mercer and Howard left off. And if Ron Anderson (transfer from Kansas State) is an upgrade at the forward spot.

2010-11 Preview -- South Florida Bulls

Too Busy for the Details?
After surging to a 9-9 conference record in 2010, the highest conference win total since joining the Big East in 2006, the Bulls have some rebuilding to do. Coach Stan Heath has to replace an entire back court (typically the strong point of Heath-coached teams). The Bulls bring in a nice mix of 'new' (true freshmen) and 'old' (transfers & JUCOs), but it will take time (more than one season).  Prognosis -- A 4th quartile finish.

3 Years At a Glance
The Bulls' record tracks with returning minutes, suggesting the players under Heath do improve over time. Most of the minutes/points returning come from the front court -- as noted by the (much) higher percentage of returning offensive rebounds than returning three pointers made.

	Returning...
	2011	2010	2009
%Min	42.0	62.9	55.0
%Pts	24.9	65.2	64.4
%FGM	37.9	66.1	55.7
%3FGM	24.8	66.2	66.9
%OReb	60.9	47.5	44.8
%DReb	46.1	57.6	45.1
%TReb	50.8	54.1	45.0

Dominique Jones, currently playing for the Mavericks, took 30% of the Bulls' shots while he was on the floor (and he was on the court a lot, logging over 90% of the off guard minutes in 2010). That is a very large offensive role to replace, especially since a single guard-in-waiting (transfer Anthony Crater) from the 2010 roster returns for 2011. Troubling too given the Bulls' rise in conference standing coincided with a marked improvement in their offense...mostly departed with DoJo (see According to Pomeroy... table below).

	According to Pomeroy...
	2009-10		2008-09		2007-08
	#	Rank	#	Rank	#	Rank
BE Off Eff	103.5	11	93.6	14	98.4	13
BE Def Eff	109.2	12	106.3	10	108.6	14
BE Off eFG%	47.2	14	43.5	16	46.6	14
BE Off FTRate	43.2	1	31.2	8	39.2	4
BE Off TO%	18.8	9	18.6	8	19.6	9
BE Off Reb%	36.1	T7	34.5	8	33.8	7
BE Def eFG%	50.4	13	48.8	6	50.1	10
BE Def Reb%	36.1	11	34.5	11	34.6	12

South Florida's offensive efficiency improved enough in 2010 to lift the Bulls out of the Big East's 4th quartile and into the NIT. The offense looks for points inside the arc (USF scored 57.7% and 24.4% of their points from 2FGAs and FTMs respectively, good for a #33 -- out of 347 -- ranking per Ken Pomeroy) either converting 2FGAs or getting to the free throw line. While offensive rebounding and turnovers have remained constant over the past three seasons, the Bulls converted field goal attempts marginally better in 2010 than 2009, and got to the line more. Defensive rebounding (defense overall actually) continued to be anemic despite the succession of well-regarded low post bigs featured in Bulls' lineups since 2006.

	For the Record...
	2009-10			2008-09			2007-08
	W	L	Pct.	W	L	Pct.	W	L	Pct.
Overall	20	13	0.606	9	22	0.290	12	19	0.387
Big East	9	9	0.500	4	14	0.222	3	15	0.167
Post Season?	NIT Rnd #1			BET Rnd #1			NA

How far back does South Florida slide? The scoring percentages suggest a 2-3 win season, but I suspect Caoch Heath has other plans. The offense will most likely move closer to the basket and balance a bit better between front court and back court scoring.

The Bulls' Nucleus
Coach Stan Heath's biggest task this season will be developing South Florida's reshaped back court, composed largely of entering freshmen, JUCOs, and with a several returning rotation players (Noriega and Crater) into an effective offensive unit. The new elements have to work with the more experienced front court trio of Gus Gilchrist, Jared Famous and Toarlyn Fitzpatrick. Several will have to take up the offensive role assigned to DoJo, there is a plethora of guards (seven in all, in the range of 5-11 to 6-6) to choose from, mostly two or so will collectively cover the points provided by Jones.

On Offense
Player	Min%	Ortg	Poss%	Shot%	eFG%	OR%	PPWS	FTR%
Jarrid Famous	71.4	102.0	20.8	19.4	52.7	12.2	1.11	50.6
Toarlyn Fitzpatrick	54.8	85.5	15.1	13.8	41.0	9.4	0.88	43.6
Augustus Gilchrist	38.1	104.8	25.3	24.6	52.4	9.3	1.16	54.5
Anthony Crater	33.8	80.9	11.5	11.3	38.1	1.6	0.79	25.4

Gilchrist and Dominique Jones were a significant "inside/less inside" threat last season. DoJo maybe gone, but Gilchrist is back. If he can stay healthy, he should have a large and positive impact on the offense, as the #1 or #2 option. The task for Coach Heath is to develop an outside threat and most probably at least one more consistent offensive option. Fitzpatrick had a typical freshman season. He should improve with experience. With offensive rebounding rates in the range of 9.3 to 12.2, all three of the front court players are keepers. Coach Heath should be able to find time for each.

On Defense
Player	Min%	DR%	Ast%	TO%	Stl%	Blk%
Jarrid Famous	71.4	16.9	3.8	20.4	2.2	1.0
Toarlyn Fitzpatrick	54.8	14.0	3.2	23.3	4.4	1.7
Augustus Gilchrist	38.1	14.6	4.2	20.0	3.4	0.5
Anthony Crater	33.8	6.7	13.3	24.9	0.5	2.6

Note the turnover rates for Famouns, Fitzpatrick and Gilchrist -- all were in the range of 20% or more. Cut down on the turnovers alone and each would increase by 5% - 7% on offensive efficiency. Anthony Crater, the Ohio State transfer who accounted for 33.8% of the playing time in a backcourt position last season, will most likely start at pg, though like Famous, Fitzpatrick and Gilchrist, he will have to limit his turnovers to be effective. Other returnees include sophomore deep bench guards Shaun Noriega who logged 68 minutes in 20 games last season and Mike Burwell who logged 92 minutes in 19 games.

Significant Additions
Coach Heath brings in a mix of true freshmen (2), transfers (1) and JUCOs (3); five of the six are guards. Among the freshmen, the coach's own son, 5-11 Jordan Heath, a point guard out of Tampa Prep is a walk-on. The other is 6-0, 200 pound LaVonte Dority of Edwin G. Foreman, Chicago. The last three guards, all JUCOs include 6-0 185 pound Shadrick Haynes, out of Lackawanna College, 6-5 195 pound Hugh Robertson, from Tallahassee CC and (possibly the most intriguing...) Jawanza Poland, a 6-4, 195 off guard who sat last season for Hutchinson CC after transferring in from Cowley College in Wichita, Kansas. Poland has not played organized (collegiate) ball in over 18 monthes. Count him very ready to get things going. Ron Anderson, a 6-8 255 pound bfc transferred in from Kansas State in 2009, has sat his year per the NCAA rules, and will be available at the beginning of this season. Anderson has two years of eligibility remaining.

Explode If...
1. Gilchrist can have a breakout season, but the Bulls will need more to match (or come close to) last season's nine conference wins. Someone from the back court or wing (Haynes? Poland?) will have to combine with a consistent third scoring option if opposing defenses are to be kept off balance. The third option won't have to be the same player each game, but between Famous, Crater, Robertson and Anderson, some combination will most likely have to contribute nine-tem points each game.
2. Find a perimeter game from among the new players. South Florida converted three point attempts at an attrocious 28.3% rate (all play) last season, ranking them #338 out of 347 in Division 1. Gilchrist and Famous should be able to keep defenses honest, but someone has to convert long-range attemtps consistently.
3. Rebounding is an area where significant improvement will translate immediately into more efficient defense. Despite having length and low post mass, the Bulls consistently ranked in the bottom third of the conference for defensive rebounding.


Implode If...
1. The players do not mesh. The back court, JUCOs and true freshmen, were assembled in the monthes after last April. Poland, Haynes, Robertson and Crater have had only fall practice together as a full squad. At the very least the out of conference should be interesting.
2. Off court distractions seem to be an annual recurring theme with the program. While most seem to be silly scrapes resulting from not thinking things through, player-on-player incidents, the type that can destroy team cohesion, have also happened.

Crucial Run/Bellweather Games
The out of conference (OOC) schedule is light on above "The Red Line" opponents, counting a maybe Texas Tech (South Padre Island Invitational, possible second round opponent...) have two. Auburn, visiting Tampa (a home-away agreement perhaps?) is heavy with newcomers, including their coach, and projected by many to finish at the bottom of the SEC Western Division, will probably not help the Bulls' RPI. There are however, a number of below The Red Line opponents who can nick up South Florida's record going into conference play. Chief culprits -- Brigham Young (Mountain West Conference) and Southern Mississippi (Conference USA), both of whom are expected to make the NCAAs in 2011. The Golden Eagles will open the Bulls' season at the Sun Dome, while the Cougars are the Bulls' first round opponent at South Padre Island. A second tier of below-the-Red-Liners includes Colonial Athletic Association members Virginia Commonwealth and James Madison, considered the class of the CAA, traditional rival Central Florida (CUSA, and with a new coach) and possibly West Coast Conference member St. Mary's. The Gaels will most likely not dance in the 2011 post season, but Coach Randy Bennett brings back three starters from the team that ran to the Sweet Sixteen. Sporting a record of 10-3 or better going into their conference opener (a road game against Seton Hall) would be bode well for Bull prospects, but not realistic.

Breaking down the Bulls' 9-9 2010 record, the key was holding serve (6-3) at home, while taking a few road games. Matching that win total may be a stretch without Jones, but if Coach Heath can coax five wins out of the conference schedule, South Florida can escape the fourth quartile for the second consecutive season. Drawing DePaul, Providence and Pittsburgh was definitely a mixed blessing. The Panthers will dominate while the Friars will struggle, so the mirror break will come with DePaul. The Demons will be sitting ducks on the road, but Oliver Purnell should have them playing better at home. Drawing that game late in the season may help USF, especially if they are within striking distance of five (or better wins). The five game stretch from the middle of January to early February should be a good predictor for the season, as that draw contains four winnable games: Providence at home (1/16), Rutgers (1/20, road), a trip to Morgantown (1/23, an improbable win), DePaul (1/27, at home) and closing out at Providence (2/2). If they can win four out of that run the chances of having five wins going into the BET are very good.

2011 Transfers/JUCOs -- Nine to Watch

Another Effect of the 2009 Recession?
During the economic uncertainties in the spring of 2009 it seems a number of ADs held off on coaching decisions only to take decisive action during the 2010 season, as the economy began to improve. The large influx of transfers from the summer of 2008 slowed to a trickle in the summer of 2009; five of the nine listed this post are JUCOs who will be eligible immediately, and two others, both transfers from other Division 1 programs, are expected to qualify immediately under existing rules. Which leaves only two who did sit for (at least) a season.

	Who, What, Where...
Player	Pos.	Hgt	Wgt	From	To
Ron Anderson	4	6-8	225	Kansas State	South Florida
Jae Crowder	3	6-6	225	Howard College	Marquette
Tyree Graham	2	6-0	190	Brunswick CC (NC)	Rutgers
Shedrick Haynes	1/2	6-0	185	Lackawanna College	South Florida
Scott Martin	2/3	6-8	200	Purdue	Notre Dame
Eniel Polynice	2	6-5	220	Mississippi	Seton Hall
Jawanza Poland	2	6-4	195	Cowley CCC	South Florida
Hugh Robertson	2/3	6-5	195	Tallahassee CC	South Florida
Roburt Sallie	1/2	6-5	186	Memphis	Louisville

A quick check on transfers (but not JUCOs) this summer shows that nearly 450 Division 1 basketball players will change schools. Of that cohort, most -- but not all -- who will find another D1 program will sit for a season before gaining eligibility. From the group listed here, Eniel Polynice and Roburt Sallie should gain eligibility immediately. For the players who left a Division 1 program, assembling the statistics of their play at their previous stop was fairly easy, (many...) thanks to Ken Pomeroy. For six of the players, I have provided a mix of possession-based stats and shooting efficiency stats based either on their last season with a Division 1 team, or, where sufficient data was available, their JUCO stats...

		On Offense...
Player	%Min	ORtg	%Poss	%Shots	PPWS
Eniel Polynice	57.9	93.4	24.5	21.5	0.94
Scott Martin	51.1	97.9	23.8	23.2	0.98
Hugh Robertson	79.4	103.2	21.4	19.1	1.51
Tyree Graham	14.1	81.5	20.6	19.0	0.85
Ron Anderson	46.4	107.1	16.8	11.2	1.05
Roburt Sallie	76.9	117.3	16.6	17.3	1.20

For Polynice, Martin, Graham, Anderson and Sallie, the stats are from their last D1 stop, Mississippi, Purdue, Texas Tech, Kansas State and Memphis respectively. Graham played for Texas Tech in his freshman season. He then left to play a year at Study (NC) Brunswick Community College. I have some shooting efficiency stats available from Brunswick, which may shed a bit more light on Graham's value to the Rutgers. Statistical data from Tallahassee CC was complete enough to compute some rough possession-based numbers for Hugh Robertson. So I included him in this group, even though the Community College population is even less uniform that Division 1. If Robertson's Tallahassee numbers cannot be a particularly good predictor for his success at Rutgers, it does give us an idea of how well he functioned within the Tallahassee system.

		Four Factors...
					FTA
Player	%Min	eFG%	OR%	TO%	FGA
Eniel Polynice	57.9	43.4	4.3	24.2	28.7
Scott Martin	51.1	43.1	7.0	17.2	49.8
Hugh Robertson	79.4	57.1	4.7	16.9	39.9
Tyree Graham	14.1	35.8	3.6	25.6	28.3
Ron Anderson	46.4	52.2	13.6	17.7	103.5
Robert Sallie	76.9	57.3	4.1	14.7	42.3

Roburt Sallie and Eniel Polynice, with three seasons of Division 1 stats on the books are probably the two easiest to assess for potential impact. Sallie goes to a Louisville team that needs what he offers, maturity, efficient scoring and (possibly...hopefully) leadership. The possibly that he will transform from a mid-level "Role Player" into a "Go-to Guy" type offensive machine (>28% of the possessions and/or shots) are slim. That he will grow into a "Significant Contributor" (about 20-24% of the possessions and shots) while maintaining his shot efficiency is possible. Assuming he is coachable and plays defense, Louisville will find him minutes. Polynice on the other hand is somewhat problematic. A high-volume scorer, he is a more athletic, less efficient version of the Hall's senior off guard, Jeremy Hazell. Folks who wondered how Hazell, Pope and Keon Lawrence were going to share the ball in 2010, have to wonder how it will work with those three back in South Orange, and joined by Polynice. With a single season of eligibility remaining for Lawrence, Hazell and Polynice, it will be interesting to see how those pieces fit together. If Coach Willard can get and keep them on the same page, the Hall may take a giant step up into the second quartile of the conference. Ron Anderson will join a well-stocked front court rotation that includes (in no particular order) Gus Gilchrist, Jarrid Famous, As for the shot efficiency stats for the JUCOs, this is far from complete, but lacking minutes played, it is the best information we can get about how the player shot the ball

			FTA
Player	eFG%	PPWS	FGA	InOut
Jae Crowder	52.0	1.13	39.8	7.7
Tyree Graham	56.9	1.21	31.9	-10.6
Shedrick Haynes	53.2	1.14	27.9	-24.3
Jawanza Poland	53.8	1.19	50.3	33.1

While he does not appear to be the most efficient scorer among the "pure" JUCOs, Jae Crowder is probably the most anticipated. Marquette needs bodies for front court play, and at 6-6 225, Crowder will definitely see time beside Marquette wing Jimmy Butler. Coach Williams has a habit of finding Texas-based diamonds in the rough, and Crowder may well be his next find. Tyree Graham, an undersized #2 from Texas Tech by way of Supply Brunswick CC in North Carolina, will be one of those Coach Rice looks at closely as a replacement for departed (via transfer) Mike Rosario. Graham has two seasons of eligibility left, and will no doubt be used at both back court spots during the 2011 season. His freshman numbers are consistent with many freshman D1 players, and his minutes are low in part because he left the team during the season to return home and address family issues. Coach Stan Heath's back court was a ghost town on April 5. Dominique Jones and Chris Howard were set to graduate, while Jordan Dumars and Justin Leemow were transfers themselves -- out of Tampa. Working the JUCO circuit, the coach managed to land Shedrick Haynes, Hugh Robertson and Jawanza Poland, to go with several "true" freshmen. Robertson had the fourth highest offensive rating on his Tallahassee CC team, serving as a "Significant Contributor" on a squad that had a single "Go-to Guy" type player and three (Robertson included) "Significant Contributors". Shedrick Haynes played his last year at Lackawanna College in Pennsylvania, showing a decided "outside" tendency in his play (note the -24.3 rating above). Haynes took 52.3% of this field goal attempts from beyond the arc, converting those attempts at a 42.2% rate. Hit at anywhere near that rate for the Bulls, and he will take a lot of pressure off of USF's low post scorers. Jawanza Poland is a good example of the well-traveled player. He enrolled at Crowley County Community College and played there his freshman year, stopping in late January (for not particularly obvious reasons). The Crowley coach moved over to Hutchinson CC for the 2010 season and a number of his players followed him, Poland included. Crowley however, did not release Poland from his commitment, so the wing sat last season awaiting eligibility. And then he transferred to South Florida to join Coach Heath's squad. The numbers above, are two years old, and the last organized ball Poland played. He appears to be a slasher, a wing who goes to the basket (note his inside/outside stat is in the low 30s, and his FTA/FGA is >50, more characteristic of a front court, rather than a wing, player) and scores efficiently.

Hits and Misses...Last Season's Transfer/JUCOs
Wesley Johnson was the definition of an impact player. While the Syracuse team was the model for team play, the Iowa State transfer was the early season face of the resurgent Syracuse program. The Orange blew through the conference regular season, taking the title and #1 seed in the Big East Tournament, bringing Coach Jim Boeheim his fourth Conference Coach of the Year award and Johnson the Big East Player of the Year award. Despite an injury to senior bfc Arinze Onuaku that clearly diminished the team's inside presence, the NCAA seeded the Orange #1 in the West Region, where they fell to Butler in the Sweet Sixteen. Johnson, a consensus All-American waived his last season of eligibility and was drafted by the Timberwolves as the fourth selection in the NBA draft. Notre Dame looked to Ben Hansbrough for his outside shot, and the 6-3 off guard obliged with an efficient (if not dominant) contribution. Hansbrough, who completed his academic work and graduated last May, had a single season of eligibility left. Going into structured practices after the start of the Fall Semester, Darius Johnson-Odom was listed behind true freshman Junior Cadougan at the #1 and fellow JUCO Dwight Buycks and senior David Cubillan at the #2. Cadougan suffered a severe ankle injury and senior Maurice Ackers rejoined the team to man the point, but despite an injury of his own in September, Johnson-Odom rehabbed quickly and went on to be one of the most dangerous three point shooters in the conference last season. Both Dwight Buycks and Johnson-Odom will return to the Golden Eagles this season. James Beatty logged 63.7% of the playing time for Rutgers last season. An assist leader and very efficient scorer, his role in the offense (as measured by possession and shot rates) was limited. Perhaps with the change in coaching, that will change this season. Seton Hall's transfer duo Keon Lawrence and Herb Pope ran afoul of the "law". For Lawrence, the transgression was civil, and occured at the end of the exhibition season. Lawrence was suspended from team activities for about seven weeks, and re-instated at the beginning of the Big East season. Pope sucker punched a Texas Tech player early in the Hall's NIT game in March. He was ejected from the game and Seton Hall went on to lose that game 87-69. Bobby Gonzalez, SHU's coach, was fired the next day. Pope and Lawrence will return to South Orange this season to play for the Pirate's new head coach Kevin Willard. Forward Taylor King started very strong for Villanova, pulling down important rebounds and providing the Wildcats with a consistent perimeter threat. As the season progressed King's minutes declined. He was one of three players suspended at various points during the latter part of the season, not playing in the Wildcats' last regular season game, and used very sparingly in Villanova's last three games. King left the program in June, moved back to California and committed to play for Southern California in July. He now appears headed to NAIA Division 1 Concordia College in California. Scott Martin appears for the second consecutive season. Martin tore up his ACL before the 2009 season, had surgery to repair his knee and has engaged in a year's worth of rehabilitation.

Post Script
Coach Rick Pitino announced that Roburt Sallie would not be eligible to play for Louisville in 2011. Sallie sought a waiver to the one year sit rule because he had finished his undergraduate studies at Memphis and was enrolled in a Louisville graduate program not offered at Memphis. Though rumored for several days, Coach Pitino provided confirmation in a radio interview early Friday (8/27) morning.

2011 To Watch Lists
Rising Seniors to Watch
Rising Juniors to Watch
Rising Sophomores to Watch