World University Games Preview -- USA & Lithuania

How They Got Here
With the end of group play yesterday the field reseeds for the next round of matches. The original 24 teams (23 actually arrived in Shenzhen to play) were divided into four groups of six teams and scheduled for a five game round robin with the other teams in their group. The two teams that finished with the worst records were supposed to play two classification round games to determine ranks #17 through #24, while the two teams that finished in the #3 & #4 positions play a two classification round games to determine ranks #9 through #16. Each groups #1 and #2 ranked teams will play three matches to determine the #1 through #8 order of finish.

Team USA swept their competition in Group D, going 5-0 for the first prelimnary round and taking the #1 seed. Team Lithuania was assigned to Group C, along with teams from Russia, Ukraine, Japan, New Zealand and the Philipines. The Lithuanians finished #2 with a record of 4-1, their only loss to Team Russia.

By the Numbers, Offense & Defense...
...Team Lithuania has averaged 79.7 possessions through five tournament games, about three possessions lower than the Americans (82.6), so this should not be a tug-of-war over pace. Though the sample is very small, the offensive and defensive efficiencies, along with the possession-based stats may be worth a look...

	Teams
Efficiency	Lith.	USA
Offense	1.07	1.33
Defense	0.91	0.87
Difference	+0.16	+0.46

Given the lack of crossover games to tie the field together, the differences can be deceptive. The efficiency margins however (when combined with four factors below) suggest that favoring the Americans in this game is probably justified. While Lithuania dropped their Group C final game against Russia (62-77), Team USA's closest Group D game was versus Israel (94-84). Russia finished Group C with the #1 seed, while Israel's 2-3 record sent that team to the #9-#16 classifications. The Lithuanians rely on two point field goals for their offense. About 67% of their FGAs are two's, and they count on two's for 60% of their points, the balance coming from three's (23%) or at the line (16%). Why the emphasis on two point FGAs? Maybe because they have problems converting three's. The Lithuanians have averaged a 30.2% conversion rate for three point attempts -- had they taken those points as two's, they would have had to hit at a 45.1% rate, well below their 58.2% conversion rate for two's. They did not take three's because they converted at a more efficient rate with two's.

A "Four Factors" comparison when Team Lithuania has the ball...

When Lithuania has the ball...
				FTA
	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FGA
Lithuanian O	54.1	20.5	38.7	33.4
American D	42.9	21.4	31.8	30.4

The key for Team Lithuania is efficient scoring by 6-6 wing Marius Valunkonis from Vytautas Magnus University and 6-10 Gediminus Zyle, a Euro-style forward out of Mykolas Romeris University. The two typically account for about 50+% of the shots when they are on the floor together. Should one or the other hit a dry spell, the Lithuanians need for a second group, generally headed by 6-7 forward/wing Gediminus Orelik (Kaunas University of Technology...Kaunas Tech?) and/or guard Ernestas Ezerskas (a teammate of Valunkonis at Vytautas Magnus University) to step in and fill the void. The Lithuanians have been a bit lax with the ball (see turnover rate), but give themselves a second chance on missed shots with strong offensive rebounding. Given the Americans have been strong on shutting down second chance opportunities, the battle under the Lithuanian's basket should become a strengh-on-strength matchup. The Americans have been strong at challenging for the ball (see their defensive turnover rate above); the two are fairly evenly matched on turnovers, so expect the Lithuanians to lose about one-in-five possessions; more than that and their offensive efficiency could be seriously diminshed; less than that, and the Americans could be in trouble defensively. The "Four Factors" look at Team USA's offense versus Lithuania's defense:

When the Americans have the ball...
				FTA
	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FGA
USA O	59.4	15.3	53.0	40.5
Lithuanian D	45.0	20.6	26.1	31.7

Though JayMychal Green has paced the team in the past two games, scoring opportunities have been nicely distributed throughout the rotation, with Ashton Gibbs, John Jenkins and Scoop Jardine all knocking down game-high numbers at least once in the tournament and exhibition games. All four, plus Trevor Mbakwe have scored more than 10 points in more than one game. A lot of shooter/scorers to cover and shut down. Like the Lithuanians, the Americans look inside the three point line for their scoring, taking 71.4% of their field goal attempts as two's. Unlike the Lithuanians however, the American squad has converted 41.2% of their attempts, comparable to a 61.8% two point conversion rate. The Americans can look to Jenkins (principally), Gibbs, Draymond Green and Darius Miller for efficient conversion of the attempt. They have been good enough at the two point attempt (54.5% conversion rate) to open up the outside for opportunities.

Finally...
...Assuming a pace for the game of about 80 possessions, the Americans (based on efficiency margins, see above) should win by double digits -- about 15 or so. There are, for Team USA a couple of wrinkles...

1. Team USA has yet to play a competitive, 40 minute game. Several Group D teams (Mexico, South Korea) were able to hang with Team USA for a quarter, sometimes a bit more. The Israelis led after a quarter, and were competitive to another quarter and a half (about 15 minutes, 25 minutes total). The lack of competition had Coach Matt Painter experiment with a different starting five and mix the rotation a bit, neither of which are particularly good when trying to develop game-to-game consistency.
2. The stakes grow immensely in the medal round(s). A single loss in the preliminary round will (almost...) never send a team to the Classification rounds, while a loss in the medal rounds will consign a team immediately to the classifications. Badly timed losses have historically plagued American squads in international tournaments. The quarter final round in particular is a trap game for USA teams. Whether the breakdown is lack of preparation from the staff or lack of understanding by the squad members is not clear, but American squads have a habit of finishing fifth in FIBA and FISU competition with a single loss.

This particular squad may dodge that bullet, as Gibbs, Denmon and JayMychal Green have played on international teams (in similar tournaments) during their college careers. Those three should understand the transition that takes place as the tournament shifts from the preliminary round ("group play") format to the type of single round elimination format used in the medal rounds.

Tea Leaves, Dove Entrails, Odometers & Seed Lines -- George Mason Preview

Rendezvous in Cleveland
Villanova and George Mason are slated to play the #8/#9 game in the East Region of the NCAA Tournament, Cleveland Pod, on Friday afternoon. The Patriots, out of the Colonial Athletic Association, are seeded #8 as an at-large team, one seed higher than the CAA Tournament Champion, Old Dominion, and several seeds higher than Virginia Commonwealth, the team that knocked them out of the CAA Conference Tournament last week. They have to be very pleased with how the season has gone so far. Villanova, seeded #9 in the East Region, only Marquette at #10 was seeded lower of the 11 Big East teams invited to the NCAAs, and riding a five game losing streak into the first round, cannot be pleased with how their season has gone so far. For George Mason, this is a chance to add to the season highlights. For Villanova, this is a chance to begin a turnaround. The two have met four times in a series that dates to 1986. Villanova's record versus George Mason is 4-0. The Wildcats won the last meeting, a 69-68 nailbiter in the first round of the Puerto Rico Tip-off in November of 2009.

Common Opponents, Good Wins, Bad Losses...
The Wildcats and Patriots shared a single common opponent this season, Delaware:

	Nova		GMU
Opponent	W/L	Diff.	W/L	Diff.
Delaware	W (H)	+19	W (H)	+9
			W (A)	+20

Notable that each hosted Delaware within 16 days of the other. Mason traveled to Newark, Delaware about two weeks after their first game. The Patriots have two top 50 wins, versus Harvard (Ivy League, 21-6, 12-3, RPI #35) and conference rival Old Dominion (CAA, 27-6, 14-4, RPI #20). That road win over the Monarchs was GMU's best win of the season. The Patriots have five wins over RPI 51-100 teams. Villanova's has four top 50 wins and four wins versus 51-100 (RPI) competition. The Wildcats' worst loss was their last game, a one point loss to South Florida (RPI #155) in their last outing.

Lineups, Rotations
Coach Jim Larranaga, completing his 14th season at George Mason, will (according to the George Mason Game Notes) most likely start 6-4 senior Cam Long at the point guard spot, with 5-11 junior Andre Cornelius in the off guard spot and 6-5 sophomore Luke Hancock playing a kind of point forward. Hancock leads the team in assists, dishing over 4.3 assists per game, while Long leads the team in scoring, averaging about 15.3 points per game over the course of the season. Two undersized forwards will start in the front court, with 6-6 junior Ryan Pearson holding down the #4 spot and 6-9 junior Mike Morrison manning the low post. Pearson, at 230 pounds, may have the bulk (if not the height) to play in the paint. While GMU is ranked #222 (out of 345) for three point attempts/all attempts (31% per Ken Pomeroy's GMU Team Page, that attempt could come from four of the five positions on the court, with backcourt mates Long and Cornelius leading the way. Those two account for 282 of the team's total 543 attempts (51.9%), but forwards Hancock and Pearson accounted for over 100 attempts. In total, the forward spots took 20.8% of the three point attempts. The Patriots have looked to six players (the starters and senior guard Isaiah Tate) for minutes and points, six have played in all 32 games, nine have appeared in at least 30 of the Patriot's 32 games. When Coach Larranaga substitutes, expect to see Tate first. The 6-4 senior is one of three players to convert at least 40% of his three point attempts (42.4% to Cam Long's 42.6%). Next off the bench will be another guard, Vertrail Vaughns, a 6-2 red shirt freshman who converts threes at a 51.6% clip. Though Vaughns has logged only 289 minutes this season, 101 of those minutes have come in the last seven games. Expect Vaughns to get at least 15 minutes of court time Friday. The front court rotation could go as deep as Paris Bennett, Johnny Williams and/or Jonathan Alridge, though none has topped 300 minutes of playing time this season (about 25% of the available playing time for a single position). Coach Larranaga would have to take a scorer off the floor to substitute any one of those three, as none has a shot% of more than 15.9% (Johnny Willliams) -- role player status in the offense.

Coach Wright used the same line up for Villanova's first 20 (or so) games, but adjusted the starters as injuries mounted and inconsistent play ensued. The pre game notes indicate Coach Wright will use the line up that earned Villanova a 17-3 record, start 6-1 senior Corey Fisher alongside 6-2 sophomore Maalik Wayns in the back court. The two function as point guards, with Wayns bringing the ball up court, but Fisher takes control of the offense in the half court. 6-5 senior Corey Stokes will man the wing as a guard/forward. Stokes remains the most consistent three point threat, though he was hobbled through much of February with hamstring and turf toe problems. 6-8 senior forward Antonio Pena will play the #4. Pena can be especially effective on the boards, and if he hits his first 17 foot jumper, a recurring element in Villanova's offense for power forwards, then things should become easier for 6-10 sophomore Mouphtaou Yarou, Villanova's starter in the low post. Wayns and Fisher will go to the rim. If they can get there they should be able to finish. Or come up with fouls. When the game is about four minutes old, look for 6-6 sophomore Dominic Cheek or 6-8 sophomore Isaiah Armwood. If Coach Wright decides to go nine deep, then 6-5 freshman wing James Bell and/or 6-11 sophomore bfc Maurice Sutton will see the court as well. Guard fouls, either Fisher or Wayns or both has been a problem. Dom Cheek can serve as a stop-gap for very short periods of time, but a rotation that puts Cheek, Stokes and Sutton on the floor together has been vulnerable to turnovers from the press.

By the Numbers, Offense & Defense...
George Mason's shot efficiency (eFG%) is bolstered tremendously by a 39.7% conversion rate for three point attempts, ranked #12 in Division 1 per Ken Pomeroy. Mason would have to convert two point attempts at a 59.5% rate to yield an equivalent number of points. Given their two point conversion rate is a more modest (but still impressive) 50.9% (#49) suggest the Patiots offensive strength on the perimeter, can be extremely damaging if not contested effectively...

When the Patriots have the ball...							FTA
	eFG%	Rnk	TO%	Rnk	OR%	Rnk	FGA	Rnk
GMU O	53.6	19	16.7	15	32.8	157	39.3	129
Nova D	46.4	56	18.4	273	29.9	75	36.2	134

The Patriots' offensive rebounding is an average-for-D1 32.8%, and their propensity to get to the line, 39.3% (FTAs/FGAs) contradict the perimeter oriented team stereotype. Turnovers then can be understood as a function of an experienced (and quality) back court, not a function of their playing style. Combining lack of turnovers (not a strength for Villanova's defense this season) with three point shooting, traps to force turnovers is probably a poor strategy for Villanova's defense. Even a modest press to slow game flow and shorten the shot clock by 10-15 seconds may backfire, if Mason can set up secondary break opportunities for their three point shooters. Should Wildcat defenders prove to be slow picking up their defensive assignments, the 'Cats would be punished severely with three point conversions. Overall, GMU's assist rate, 55.2%, is a bit higher than average, suggesting the Patriots use the pass to set up the shooter. George Mason offers a balanced offense that draws just over half (52.3%) of it's points from inside 20 feet 9 inches, but relies on the three point attempt for just over a quarter (27.5%) of their points. When Long has the ball, he only slightly favors the three point attempt, but when Vaughn or Cornelius are on the court, alone or together, Villanova's perimeter defense needs to be on full alert. GMU's offensive rebounding, fair but not great, is an area that can be exploited by Villanova. Should the Patriot marksmen miss, Villanova should be able to deny them a second chance.

The "Four Factors" look at Villanova's offense versus George Mason's defense:

When the Wildcats have the ball...							FTA
	eFG%	Rnk	TO%	Rnk	OR%	Rnk	FGA	Rnk
Nova O	49.7	137	17.9	49	35.4	67	42.6	63
GMU D	45.8	37	20.8	123	30.7	96	32.0	58

The Wildcats have won by scoring, either on their first attempt of the possession, or via putbacks and second chance opportunities afforded by their offensive rebounding. Limiting turnovers maximizes their scoring opportunities, but the 'Cats also rely on points from the free throw line. They harvest about 24.5% of their points from free throw line, while getting 26.2% of their points from beyond the arc (much like GMU).

Want to Beat the Patriots? Then...
Unlike the Wildcats, the Patriots do not have an "offensive marker", a particular offensive element that strongly correlates to wins and losses. Nevertheless there are two elements that seem to matter in close games. Defense is another matter...
1. Keep them off the line. Filtering blowout wins (margins of 17 or more points), GMU's record when they get to the line 36.2% or less is 4-4. In closer games, those points are vital to their offensive bottom line.
2. Force turnovers. Again filtering for blowout wins, the Patriots are 2-3 when they lost 20% or more of their possessions.
3. Hit your shots. When GMU's opponents hit to Villanova's eFG% (49.7%) or better, the Patriots were 7-5. Filter blowout wins and their record was 5-5.
4. Dominate the offensive boards. When the Patriots' opponents rebounded to Villanova's offensive rebounding rate or better (35.4%), they were 6-4. Filter the blowout wins, and their record dropped to 4-4.
5. Get to the line. When George Mason's opponents had a free throw rate (FTA/FGA) of 42.6% or better (Villanova's FT rate), the Patriots were 2-4. Filter the blowout wins and the Patriots were 0-4.

Finally...
...For Mason, defense is the key, a counter point to Villanova, where the Wildcats' ability to win is tied clearly to their offense. Track the Wildcats' conversion rates, they should provide a clear indication on Villanova's prospects to win this game. Oddly George Mason seems very flexible on offense. They have a number of ways offensively to translate a game effort into a win. Ken Pomeroy calls this one a virtual tossup -- Villanova by one point with a 50% probability. That's the statistical "word" for tossup folks. Looking at distance to travel as an indicator does not help much. Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight.com posted a piece travel distance and winning percentages that asserted when teams traveling to sites 200-500 miles from their campus have a 52% winning percentage. George Mason has a very slight travel advantage, about 288 miles to Cleveland versus about a 338 mile commute for Villanova. About as close as the game is expected to be.

Roster Moves
Mason guards Andre Cornelius and Luke Hancock sprained their ankles during Tuesday practice. Cornelius waa able to walk off the court, while Hancock needed assistance. Both departed for Cleveland with the team, and Hancock assured a blogger Wednesday that he had gone through a full practice Wednesday and would play Friday, an assertion confirmed by Coach Larranage who indicated both would start as planned.

Preview -- Maryland

Looking For a Big Score...
When Coach Gary Williams brings his Maryland club North to Philadelphia Saturday, he has to hope that despite an unfamiliar 20 degree temperature, the trip will will give them a warm glow, espicially on Selection Sunday. The ACC is down this season, and Maryland, though touted as one of the better teams in that conference, has to be concerned that a 0.500 conference record and about 20 or so wins, will not sufficiently impress the Selection Committee. In addition to closing the book on last season's BB&T Invitaitional with this return date, Maryland would like very much to notch win #12 and add a Top 20 road win to this season's resume. Against Pittsburgh, Illinois, Temple and Duke the Terrapens have come close. Villanova has other ideas. The Wildcats are ranked #7 this week and starting on Monday, will spend much of the balance of January on the road with conference play. A win over a well regarded ACC team at home would be a nice way close out their home stand. The teams have played four games in a series that goes back to 1985 (they played twice the year Villanova won the National Championship), with Villanova holding a 3-1 edge...

The teams have played one common opponent, South Florida. And better yet, both were visitors within the last fortnight...

	Nova		Maryland
Opponent	W/L	Diff.	W/L	Diff.
Temple	W (H)	+4	L (H)	-3

Maryland's best OOC win was a 23 point road victory over Penn State (Big Ten, 10-6, 3-2, RPI #59). Best (only) ACC conference win is their road win at Wake Forest (7-10, 0-2, RPI #256), a 19 point win over a rebuilding Demon Deacon squad. Every one of the Terps five losses was to a Top 50 RPI squad. The average margin was 5.4 points. Villanova's lone loss, to Tennessee, like Maryland's losses, is to a Top 50 RPI team, but the 'Cats also have several Top 50 RPI wins (Louisville, Temple) for the Selection Committee. Villanova is currently tied for the lead in the Big East Conference standings and projected preseason to be in the thick of a very competitive race for the conference title. While none of Marylannd's losses is a deal-breaker for the Selection Committee, should the Terps drift through the balance of season and finish towards the middle of the conference, relying on the conference's relative standing to pull them over the bubble will be risky. A resume out of conference win on the other hand...

Lineups, Rotations...
...Replacing Greivis Vasquez, Landon Milbourne and Eric Hayes has not been easy, Vasquez was a productive (and in his senior season, efficient) scorer, but Milbourne and Hayes provided, along with Vasquez, leadership and maturity of the type that takes time to develop. While it appears, through the Terps first 16 games anyway, that Coach Williams is generally satisfied with what he has to work with, there is still a bit of tweaking, even as conference play commences. Coach Gary Williams, a veteran of 33 years of Division head coaching, has gone 10 and 11 deep into his rotation, but tends to allocate 10 or more minutes to a cohort of eight or nine players.

Look for the Maryland mentor to start a three guard back court that will include senior Adrian Bowie (6-2, 190 lbs), a Montrose Christian graduate, who will man the point, junior Sean Mosley (6-4, 210 lbs) a Baltimore native and freshman Terrell Stoglin (6-1, 185 lbs) to start alongside Bowie and fill the wings. Senior guard Cliff Tucker (6-6, 205 lbs) started 11 games earlier in the season and will most likely log over 25 minutes of court time. Freshman Pe'Shon Howard (6-3, 195 lbs), a prepster out of Los Angles by way of Oak Hill Academy, has also logged two starts in that last wing spot. Howard has averaged over 17 minutes of playing time per game, having appeared in all 16 of Maryland's games. Senior Dino Gregory (6-7, 230 lbs), another Baltimore native, will start alongside sophomore Jordan Williams (6-10, 260 lbs), who will function as a foward/center. Neither tends to foul (they average less then three fouls per game), and each logs, on average, > 26 minutes per game. Look for forwards sophomore James Padgett (6-8, 225 lbs) and freshman Haukur Paulsson (6-6, 190 lbs), along with JUCO junior center Berend Weijs (6-10, 200 lbs) check in at some point -- all three have appeared in virtually every one of Maryland's games this season. Coach Williams has the depth to tweak his rotation either longer or shorter to match-up and counter the Terrapins' opponents.

Villanova's starting five -- Corey Fisher and Maalik Ways as a two-headed point, Corey Stokes, who has emerged as the scoring leader this season will take the third guard spot on the wing, with a front court that features Antonio Pena and Mouphtaou Yarou. Pena is a senior who has started off and on, for the past three seasons, will man the four, while Yarou, a sophomore who mans the paint posted a career-high 18 points to go with his second double-double, in the 'Cats last outing, against Louisville. Villanova's rotation can go to 11, but nine, those five players and freshman wing James Bell, sophomores Dom Cheek, Maurice Sutton and Isaiah Armwood, is more typical, especially in a closely contested game.

By the Numbers, Offense & Defense...
Both teams are comfortable pushing the pace, as each typically averages more than the Division 1 average for possessions. Expect possessions in the mid-70s (74-75). Villanova's pace has trended up for the past several weeks, and assuming the Terps cannont get behind Villanova's defense for easy buckets, the staff may given the Wildcats' depth, give a green light to turn this into a track meet. Pomeroy projects 74 possessions for this game; he has been a bit low for Villanova's last 3-4 games. A "Four Factors" comparison when Maryland has the ball...

When Maryland has the ball...
				FTA
	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FGA
Terp O	51.7	19.7	38.6	38.5
Wildcat D	43.4	19.5	26.3	33.2

The Terps' offense is ranked #74 according to Ken Pomeroy's Scouting Report, good, but not among the elites in Division 1. Maryland does everything well, but one element (only) stands out -- they rebound their misses very well, which compensates for the fact that they effectively convert about 1 in 2 of their FGAs. The Terps' are just below average for D1 at converting three point attempts (33.3%, #198), but rank in the lowest 10th percentile for free throw conversions (63.1, #306). Close games away from home are problematic for the squad and staff. Villanova has become particulary good at defending the shot, their eFG% defense (43.4%) is ranked #20 in D1. Rebounding at the Maryland end of the court is a straight up strength-on-strength match-up. If Williams or Tucker has to sit with fouls (taken during the rebounding battle...), expect the Terp offense to stall a bit as the other players adjust. If one or the other team deviates from their normal substitution pattern, consider the impact of the sub on the team's rebounding. Maryland's offense has had to deal with only two other opponents with better adjusted defensive efficiency ratings, Duke and Temple, and the Terps lost both games. The "Four Factors" look at Villanova's offense versus Maryland's defense:

When Villanova has the ball...
				FTA
	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FGA
Wildcat O	51.8	18.2	36.7	46.3
Terp D	41.7	23.5	29.5	30.3

The Terp's adjusted defense is 81.8, ranked #1, the elite defense in Division 1. They are elite shot defenders (good at defending both the two and the three, but ranked among the best at defending the two). They are strong (but not among the 20 best) at the other three factors -- a high turnover rate, a strong rebounding unit and they do not foul much. Expect strength-on-strength match-ups on Villanova's boards, with "defensive" fouling a potential crucial element. Villanova looks for just over 25% of their points from the line. If Maryland does not put the 'Cats on the line, Villanova will have to find those points elsewhere. Maryland is one of the best shot blocking units in D1, while Villanova's offense is ranked #262 at getting their shots blocked...another area where lost potential points will have to be made up elsewhere.

Want to Beat Maryland? Then...
Shooting is always critical, make them miss and convert your own, is the motto here...
1. When the Terps are held to an eFG% of < 50% they are 2-3. When their opponent converts (eFG%) at 45% or greater, the Terps are 2-5 (a very telling number).
2. Taking away second chance opportunities seems to cause Maryland real problems. In those games where Maryland was held to the D1 average (33.3%) or fewer for offensive rebounds, they are 1-3. When their opponents have been able to rebound to the D1 average or better on their misses, the Terps are 2-3.

Finally...
...Pomeroy projects a horse race for this game, with each team having 74 possessions. And the Wildcats taking a five point decision. The game will be televised by CBS, and Aaron Bracy sent along a note that he will be covering the game live from the Wells Fargo Center, he will post a recap with press conference information to the Philahoops.com blog.

Preview -- Syracuse at Seton Hall

Inconvenient Timing...
...but is there ever a good time for a visit from the Orange? First year coach Kevin Willard is about to find out why fans love the Big East (and the conference coaches hate it) -- there is never an off night. With players sidelined and those available still seeming to be on holiday, the Pirates nevertheless host the Syracuse Orange Saturday at the Rock. Syracuse is ranked #4 nationally, and puts a 15 game winning streak and a 2-0 Big East record on the line. Questions about who would step into the roles vacated by Wes Johnson, Andy Rautins and Arinze Onuaku have been pushed to the back burner (winning streaks have a habit of doing that) as the current roster has stepped up to mold their own style of play -- somewhere on the good side of the "me next" teams of 2006-2009 and the win-by-committee approach favored last season -- and risen to the top again early in conference play. If the Pirate faithful do not look back wistfully to the maelstrom of former Coach Bobby Gonzalez, it is only because those days especially the last ones, were excruciatingly painful. Give Coach Willard another few weeks and an injury or two more, and a few may well break out in a chorus of "Auld Lang Syne". Watching a new coach try to motivate an experienced (but set in their ways?) roster can be painful, and the Pirate Crew are feeling the pain right now.

	Hall		Cuse
Opponent	W/L	Diff.	W/L	Diff.
Cornell	W (H)	+24	W (H)	+20

Not much to compare via common opponents, but the Cornell result is interesting. The Hall came off a road loss to Temple and pummeled the Big Red. Both teams scored in the same neighborhood against the common opponent. Of course the Hall had a healthy Jeremy Hazell. The Oranges' best OOC win was a 14 point victory (72-58) over Michigan State (Big Ten, 9-4, RPI #35) in Madison Square Garden last month. Their best overall win to date was their last game is a 70-58 (+12) win over conference mate Notre Dame (13-2, 2-1, RPI #12). The Orange won the Legends Classic (covered by Rush the Court Live) over the Thanksgiving Weekend. The Pirates' best outing is their 64-55 win over conference mate South Florida (6-10, 0-3, RPI #102). Their loss to Arkansas in the Big East-SEC Challenge (SEC, 10-4, RPI #142) was painful.

Lineups, Rotations...
...Coach Willard uses an eight man rotation (if a nineth man checks in, it is Anali Okoloji, a 6-8 freshman front court project who shows a lot of enthusiasm), with junior point guard Jordan Theodore (6-0, 174 lbs), along with senior off guard Keon Lawrence (6-2, 177 lbs), freshman wing Fuquan Edwin (6-6, 205 lbs) at the #3, senior Jeff Robinson (6-6, 230 lbs) at the #4 and senior Herb Pope (6-8, 236 lbs) at the #5. Lawrence got the nod over senior transfer Jamel Jackson (6-3, 202 lbs) in the Pirates last outing (a 73-54 loss to Louisville), and it appears Coach Willard will try the senior guard again. Jackson will come off the bench, along with fifth year senior Eniel Polynice (6-5, 220 lbs), who decided to play his last season of D1 ball in South Orange. Patrik Auda (6-9, 225 lbs), a freshman Euro-style #4 will probably come off the bench early to spell Pope or lend more height to the front court.

Coach Jim Boeheim has not tinkered with his starting five, opening with 15 wins for the 3rd time in his 35 year tenure at Syracuse has made him a bit conservative perhaps? Sophomore Branden Triche (6-4, 205 lbs) will start at the point, with junior Scoop Jardine (6-2, 190 lbs) at the #2, junior Kris Joseph (6-7, 210 lbs) at the #3, senior Rick Jackson (6-9, 240 lbs) at the #4 and freshman Fab Melo (7-0, 244 lbs) at the #5. The first to sit will be Melo, and when he does (about five or so minutes into the first half), Coach Boeheim will call one of four numbers for his substition. Generally freshman Dion Waiters (6-4, 215 lbs) gets an early nod, with sophomore forward James Southerland (6-8, 210 lbs), freshman forward CJ Fair (6-8, 204 lbs) or (if Boeheim wants to maintain Melo's heighth along the back line) freshman center Baye Moussa Keita (6-10, 213 lbs) getting the nod. Though 15 games those five have drawn minutes (except Providence, where Fair was a DNP) even in the tight games. If the scoring margin goes beyond 20 or so, look for another four as many as four additional players to check in, led by sophomore forward Mookie Jones (6-8, 220 lbs) who has averaged double digit minutes in eight games this season.

By the Numbers, Offense & Defense...
...Syracuse tends to play for 67.9 possessions, just above the D1 average of 67.8 (adjusted according to Ken Pomeroy's Syracuse Team Page), while Seton Hall prefers to run -- 69.9 (see the Hall's page at Ken Pomeroy's site). Neither team should be uncomfortable with a higher possession rate, and though Pomeroy's 69 possession projection does not surprise, 70+ would not be shocking. A "Four Factors" comparison when Syracuse has the ball...

When Syracuse has the ball...
				FTA
	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FGA
Orange O	53.4	16.3	37.0	38.8
Pirate D	44.4	21.1	30.3	33.3

The Orange have one of the elite offenses nationally, ranked #11, according to Ken Pomeroy's Scouting Report. Syracuse is strong shooting the ball (see their eFG%, ranked #45) and getting second chance opportunities, while they are just average (considering the size and athleticism of their front court, surprising) at getting to the line. Their true strength is turnovers -- they don't. The Hall's defense, while not "elite" is rated strongly (#43) by Pomeroy. Shooting and shot defense (the Hall is ranked #45 in shot defense) should be a strength-on-strength match-up for the two teams. If the Cuse can convert easily, the Hall may have trouble keeping up, and if the Pirates can shut down Orange scoring, look for fewer transition points and more half-court offensive schemes. If Seton Hall can force turnovers, so much the better, as that would negate an Orange advantage. The "Four Factors" look at Seton Hall's offense versus Syracuse's defense:

When Seton Hall has the ball...
				FTA
	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FGA
Pirate O	45.8	18.1	29.8	32.6
Orange D	44.0	22.2	30.4	27.1

The Pirates' lack of offense is central to team woes on the court. Adjusted offense is 103.2 (per Ken Pomeroy), ranked #113 for Division 1. While among the top third of the division, they have problems scoring at crucial times during games, and have suffered through scoring droughts.

Want to Beat Syracuse? Then...
Post it on the web as soon as you figure it out. There are 12 Big East coaches very eager to get that information.
1. Slow it down, take away transition scoring opportunities. When possessions are low(er), the score is close(r). Make Syracuse pass the ball in a half-court set for a few possessions to disrupt their rhythm. Against John Beilein's relatively inexperienced Michigan team, the Orange were held to 61 possessions in a three point (53-50) win.
2. Make them miss. Shooting in college ball, like the NBA, is the strongest single determinant for victory. In the five games where the Orange have shot efficiency (eFG%) held to less than 47% their offensive efficiency was 98.6 and their margin of victory was 7.4 points. In the 10 games where they have converted at better than 47% their offensive efficiency is 121.5 with a margin of victory of 21.4 points.
3. Get physical. Syracuse's FTA/FGA rate is 38.8, at #158 they are ranked close to the mean of Division 1. They convert free throws at a fairly mediocre 66.3% (ranked #243, the bottom third in D1). In the three games where their FTA rate > 50%, their margin of victory is 8.4 points. Overall their average margin of victory is 16.9 points.

Want to Beat Seton Hall? Then...
Make them miss. It is that simple. In games where Seton Hall's eFG% is < 44%, the Pirates are 0-8. In games where the Hall's eFG% is 44.7% or higher they are 7-0. Night and day.

Finally...
...The Orange travel very well. I expect the house will be closer to 65%-35% Seton Hall, unless the fan-base is too discouraged to turn out (hopefully that will not happen). A win would certainly reverse a too long trend of Syracuse wins at Seton Hall (in the last 10 games, the margin is 8-2 Syracuse, 1-4 on the Hall's home court) and re-energize the squad. A competitive showing (Pomeroy projects an eight point Syracuse win), would suggest there are more wins than anticipated in the schedule.

I will be live blogging the game for Rush the Court tomorrow at noon. Drop by and chat if you have the chance.

Preview -- University of Pennsylvania

The City Series
The Wildcats and Quakers face off in the opening game of the 59th renewal of Philadelphia's famed Big 5 series, at the Pavilion on Villanova's campus. The series, held annually since 1955, pits (a period during the 1990s excepted) Philadelphia's four city colleges (La Salle, Penn, St. Joseph's and Temple) and Villanova in a round robin series of games that, in the period before conferences, often reached a climax as each season ended. Today, Villanova typically plays most, if not all, of their Big 5 slate before they launch into the Big East regular season. This season is unusual in that Villanova will play 2 of their 4 rivals even before the end of November. While the Quakers have had a few off seasons under head coach Glen Miller (his 3 year record record at Penn is a disappointing average 45-45). After a 1st place finish (22-9) and an NCAA bid in his rookie season, the Quakers slumped to a 23-36 record. This season is projected as the Quaker's bounce back, as they expect to be among the top teams in the mid-major Ivy League, the oldest conference in the Northeast. While one might think of this as just another mid-major tune-up for the Wildcats, consider that the Wildcats have, to this point in the 2001-2010 decade, logged 29 Big 5 wins. That total matches Penn's best win total (from 1971-1980, 29-11, 0.725) which in turn, is the best decade-long record (wins, winning percentage) of any program in Big 5 competition. Should the Wildcats beat the Quakers, they will have notched at least 30 wins in the decade, and be guaranteed a winning percentage no worse than 0.750. Villanova has won the City Series 5 times since 2004, sharing the title twice during that run (2005 & 2008, both times with Temple). Villanova leads their series with Penn, 39-17, and puts a six game winning streak versus Penn on the line...

What Others Say...
...Blue Ribbon projects the the Quakers to finish 3rd in the Ivy League -- an improvement over last season's #7 finish (in the 8 team Ivy League) -- and gives the backcourt a B, the frontcourt a C and the bench/depth a C. Rush the Court writer Dave Zeitlin also projected Penn as the 3rd place team in his Ivy League preview, citing the return of Andreas Schreiber and Darren Smith as reasons to look for Coach Miller to have a solid starting line up. But Harrison Gaines' departure will have the Quakers looking for scoring from the remaining members of the rotation.

So Far...
Penn lost to an improving Penn State (Big Ten, 1-0, RPI #47 -- 2009) team Friday evening, 70-55 in State Park. The 'Cats enter this game sporting a 1-0 record - their opening game effort against Fairleigh Dickinson providing fans with a rusty first half, but a shooting exhibition in the second half that yielded a 23 point victory. .

Penn By the Numbers...
Over the past 5 years the Quakers have declined steadily from #59 (under Fran Dunphy) to #252 (last season -- an improvement actually, over their 260 rank in 2008) in the RPI. Penn ran a higher than average pace last season (68.2 possessions, adjusted, via Ken Pomeroy's Penn Scout Page which ranked the Quakers #93 out of approx. 336 - the D1 pace last season was 66.5). Penn's field goal efficiency (eFG) last season was a disappointing 47.1 (#243). Combined with their relatively high turnover rate (20.7, #202) and low offensive rebounding percentage (29.3, #276) Penn registered one of the least efficient offenses in D1 last season (according to Ken Pomeroy). The Quakers wanted to shoot 3s, taking nearly 35% of their FGAs behind the line last season, but their conversion rate (31.5%, #282) thwarted their efforts. If the PSU game is a guide, they intend to pursue this strategy against their opponents again this season. But given they converted about 21% of their attempts, the strategy may yield no better results this season. Penn's defense was slightly better in 2009, ranked #231 (about 40 spots higher than their offense) out of approximately 336 D1 teams. Ironically 3 point shot defense was their worst defensive feature. This could be a very big night for Corey Stokes and Taylor King.

Frontcourt vs frontcourt...
Penn has a stable of nine tweeners, all between 6-6 and 6-9 available for minutes. Senior 6-9 #4/#5 Andreas Schreiber (#13), a red shirt last season will most likely start next to 6-8 junior Jack Eggleston (#24, 30.2 mpg, 9.6 ppg, 5.9 rpg in 2009). Coach Miller started those two against Penn State, and Eggleston went on a tear, scoring 13 points on 5-6 shooting in 33 minutes. 6-7 junior Conor Turley (#, 6.9 mpg, 1.0 ppg, 1.6 rpg) logged 22 minutes scoring 8 points (6 of them at the free throw line) and grabbing 2 rebounds. 6-9 sophomore Mike Howlett (#23, 6.4 mpg, 1.4 ppg, 0.7 rpg -- 2009) battled injuries through much of his freshman season, logged 16 minutes and scored 4 points against Penn State.

Mouphtaou Yarou and Antonio Pena started in the front court versus Fairleigh Dickinson and there is no reason given their performance, to suggest they will not start again. I was a bit surprised to see Yarou start, as the staff almost always ease the freshmen into the rotation before allocating starts. The last freshman to start this early in his freshman season was Scottie Reynolds. After Yarou and Pena, the staff will look to give time to Taylor King, who joined with Corey Stokes to drop a stunning 7 of 8 3 point field goals on Kutztown in exhibition, and followed that with a 7 rebound 9 point performance against the Knights Friday. Behind King, expect to see the freshman, red shirt Maurice Sutton and true frosh Isaiah Armwood. The Villanova front court should give their Penn counterparts more than they can handle.

Backcourt vs backcourt...
Coach Miller will most likely start 6-1 Zach Rosen (#1, 31.1mpg, 8.1ppg, 4.9apg) at the point, paired with 6-4 Darren Smith (#5), a red shirt junior who has lost 2 seasons to a variety of injuries, at the #2. Given Coach Miller's up-tempo style, expect a third guard, 6-6 tweener Tyler Bernardini (#4, 29.4 mpg, 13.7 ppg, 4.0 rpg) to start on the wing. Bernardini was the Quakers' leading scorer last season, shooting from both the outside (39-122, 0.320) and inside (71-154, 0.461) last season. Bernardini accounted for 27.8% of the Quakers' shots when he was on the floor last season. And if his performance Friday at State College is an indicator, (4-8 in 17 minutes), he will continue to be the #1 option on offense this season. Two 6-6 juniors Rob Belcore (#30, 4.3 ppg, 1.8 rpg) and Dan Monckton (#2, 4.1 mpg, 0.3 ppg, 0.7 rpg), combined to take 33 minutes (27 to Belcore, 6 to Monckton) on the wing and back court. Beyond Belcore and Monckton, back court depth is very young, as Coach Miller has two freshmen, 5-9 Malcolm Washington (#11) out of Los Angeles and 6-3 Carson Sullivan (#20) out of Charlotte, NC available for minutes should the opportunity/need arise.

Coach Wright started Scottie Reynolds, and the Coreys, Fisher and Stokes, at the #2, #1 and #3 respectively. Reynolds logged an 8 point night versus the Knights, while Stokes shot out the lights with a 20 point performance on 6-12, 5-10 shooting. Fisher notched 13 points on a 4-9 (1-2) night. Depth will come from freshmen Maalik Wayns (6 points with 2 assists) and Dominic Cheek (8 points and 2 assists). Both freshmen saw 18 minutes against FDU -- expect them to see similar time against the Quakers.

Final Thoughts...
If the front court was tested in the FDU game, the back court and wing spots should face a good test in this contest. Coach Miller wants his Quakers to push the ball early and often. Poor field goal conversion rates undermined the up-tempo style as the team struggled to find open shots. If the 67 possession game versus Penn State was about "average" for last season, it was slow by the pace set in games played this opening weekend (possessions per team averages about 70 so far this season). Villanova would be happy to accommodate the brisker rate of play, using about 71 possessions versus FDU Friday night. Penn did not rebound well offensively in 2009, and the PSU game suggests this problem area may remain unaddressed.

Coach Wright employed a 10 man rotation against FDU. This appears to be the mode of operation through much of the OOC portion of the schedule. The question will be whether Armwood and Sutton will get join the other eight by logging double digit minutes. If Penn struggles with their shot in the Pavilion as they did in State College, both Sutton and Armwood will see action early.

Odds and Ends...
I will be doing a live, on site blog from the Pavilion Monday night during the game. If you have internet access, drop over to Rush the Court blog, say hello and participate.

Preview -- Fairleigh Dickinson University

Opening Knights?
The Wildcats and Knights will open their 2009-10 season(s) on Friday evening at Villanova's Pavilion. If this season holds great promise for the Wildcats, it seems decidedly less so for the Knights. The Fairleigh Dickinson squad enters the game down 2, having lost the program's first head coach, Richard Holub, who passed away in early August at the age of 88, and their head coach, Tom Green, who was dismissed early last June. Coach Green and his Knights struggled to a second consecutive losing season in 2009, a #10 place Northeast Conference finish that followed their #8 finish in 2008 (tie-breakers kept them out of the NEC Tournament). If Coach Green's termination was odd (he was after all, the winningest coach in FDU history, voted NEC coach of the year twice, and honored twice as Coach of the Year by the NJ Sports Writers), AD David Langford's timing was even stranger. Langford dismissed the 26 year head coach on June 5th, over six weeks after the beginning of the spring signing period, too late in the fire/hire cycle to conduct an extensive search for a replacement. Langford looked to Coach Green's 2009 staff, and tabbed younger (and better connected?) Assistant Coach, Greg Vetrone, to guide the program as the interim coach for 2009-10. Villanova and Fairleigh Dickinson have played twice before (1999 and 2000), both decisions going to Villanova by double digit margins...

What Others Say...
...With four returning starters, it is no surprise that Blue Ribbon rates the Knight's backcourt at B, the frontcourt at B and the bench/depth at C+. But Blue Ribbon also predicts a #9 conference finish for FDU. The reason? Blue Ribbon suggested that Coach Vetrone will address the Knight's lack of defense under Green (Pomeroy ranked the Knights' defense #323 out of 344 in D1 last season). Rush the Court (and Villanova by the Numbers contributor...) Ray Floriani projected a #6 place finish for the Knights in his NEC Preview...the low standing a possible after effect of Tom Green's dismissal? Coach Vetrone will put a veteran lineup on the floor, but will they draw on their shared experience as a team and play with each other?

Why Everyone Believes...
...The feeling around the program (and the AD's office) was that the team had talent, but chemistry and motivation issues held the team back in Green's last two seasons. Coach Vetrone will work to get everyone of the senior-led squad members on the same page and working together to realize the promise that each has individually (and inconsistently) demonstrated over the past two seasons. The squad is one of the NEC's most experienced going into this season, improvement over the previous two seasons is expected.

So Far...
The Knights did not see March last season, ending play on the last day of February with a 79-58 loss to NEC foe St. Francis (PA). Villanova lost 83-69, in the national semifinals of the NCAA, to eventual champion North Carolina. The 'Cats come into this game off a 26 point exhibition win over the D2 Kutztown Bearcats last Friday. Fairleigh tuned up with a 19 point exhibition win (80-61) versus Molloy College (of Hyslip, NY), in Coach Vetrone's first game as a D1 Head Coach.

Fairleigh Dickinson By the Numbers...
The Knight's RPI over the past 5 years has ranged from the mid 100's (#141) down to the low 300's (#314). The last two seasons of Coach Green's tenure saw the FDU slump to the high 200s/low 300s. Fairleigh Dickinson was a higher than average pace team last season (69.2 possessions, adjusted, via Ken Pomeroy's Fairleigh Dickinson Scout Page which ranked the Knights #62 out of approx. 344 - the adjusted average pace was 66.5). Fairleigh Dickinson's field goal efficiency (eFG) was a disastrous 45.7% (#292) while their defense for shots was very suspect (53.0, #320). Those shot numbers, combined with rebounds (ranked #208 offensively, #335 defensively), suggest a team that struggled with communication and consistent effort on the court.

Frontcourt vs frontcourt...
If the Knight's starting #4 looks vaguely familiar to you, relax, you know him from seasons' past. The seniors should recognize 6-8 senior Alvin Mofunanya (#55, 9.0 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 2.0 bpg), a transfer from Big 5 rival St. Joseph's who started for Coach Green last season. Two returning players 6-8 junior Kamil Svrdlik (#44, 6.9 ppg, 3.5 rpg, 1.3 bpg) and 6-9 (250 pound) junior John Galvin (#50, 5.9 ppg, 5.3 rpg) split the starts & PT last season. 6-9 junior DeJuan Pursley (#52), back from a year of inactivity, returns to add depth and another big body to the rotation. 7-2 senior Lawrence Brown (#35, 2.7 mpg, 0.4 ppg) and 6-7 redshirt freshman Anaclet Mbayi (#33) will add depth to the Green Knight rotation.

If the Kutztown exhibition is a reliable guide, Villanova will start junior Antonio Pena alongside freshman Mouphtaou Yarou at the #4/#5. Wing Corey Stokes will start at the #3, though Stokes and Pena will most likely switch on defense as the situation demands. Look for Taylor King off the bench early if the staff wants to test the Green Knight's 3 point defense (FDU was ranked #311 in D1 last season). Red shirt freshman Maurice Sutton and freshman Dominic Cheek may see action early if Yarou encounters foul trouble. FDU's experienced front court contingent should provide a good test for the Wildcat's freshmen-heavy cohort. Speculation abounds about the status of freshman Isaiah Armwood -- will the staff red shirt him or put him in the rotation this season? An appearance by the freshman would be a bolster to those who believe he will not red shirt.

Backcourt vs backcourt...
The Knights will match Villanova's back court with a pair of experienced guards. JUCO point guard Mike Scott (#12, 8.5 ppg) out of the College of Eastern Utah will likely take the point while 6-3 Jean Bapitste (#30, 16.3 ppg, 5.9 rpg), possibly the NEC's best player, starting at the off guard spot. Baptiste (79.6% of the PT at his position) logged massive playing time last season -- Pomeroy ranked him in the Top 350 for playing time. That no doubt degraded Baptiste's effectiveness at times late last season. Baptiste took > 50% of FDU's possessions when they played together, though Baptiste took 28.2% of the shots when he was on the floor. Scott logged a freshman year at Texas Christian before heading out to Utah. The FDU offense will go through those two. Coach Vetrone indicated Baptiste participated in an off season conditioning program to build up his stamina, and the coach will try to enlarge the back court rotation to provide Baptiste some in game rest. Expect an early call to go out to returning players 5-11 junior Terence Grier (#1, 7.9 ppg, 3.2 rpg) and 6-0 sophomore Sam Fernley (#10, 2.1 ppg, 0.7 rpg). Coach Vetrone can also look to 5-11 freshman DeShawn Dockery (#21, cousin of former Dookie Sean Dockery) and 5-10 freshman Louis Larizza (#22, Port Chester, NY).

Coach Wright will counter with senior guard Scottie Reynolds and junior point guard Corey Fisher to start in the Villanova back court, along with junior Corey Stokes to start on the wing, as Coach Wright will most likely favor a 3 guard look. Freshman guard Malik Wayns will get an early call -- expect him to log double digit minutes in relief of Fisher and Reynolds. Freshman Dominic Cheek will also see the court.

Final Thoughts...
This game will pit strength against strength - back court versus back court. I expect Villanova to dominate enough to win this by a double digit margin. The front court struggle should be the most interesting matchup in this contest, however. The 'Cats may have more talent, but FDU will counter with a lot of experience in the form of bigger, heavier bodies. If Yarou struggles with fouls as he did in Nova's exhibition game with Kutztown, the fans may see the staff experiment with line ups of different sizes and shapes. Putting King next to Pena will concede a few inches to FDU, but it will force them to stretch their defense to account for the extra bombers. The front court number to watch here is rebounds. FDU has the size/experience advantage, but the Knights were among the poorest defensive rebounders in D1 (#335) last season, and were not especially strong (#208) on the offensive side either. If the game is competitive throughout, the staff may show the rotation they will favor for the season. But the staff went ten deep for the Kutztown game, and will most likely do the same here if the players get FDU under control early. Numbers to watch, rebounding aside, will be minutes. Who gets how much given the player match-ups, may provide an early forecast on the rotation come the Big East season. Getting subs some playing time has been traditionally valued by the staff and (by tradition) a priority in the early season games.

Roster Notes...
Villanova -- Eligibility issues apparently settled, bfc Mouphtaou Yarou is slated to play for the Wildcats. Yarou started the exhibition game (versus Kutztown) last Friday. Scottie Reynolds tweaked his ankle early in the week and sat out Tuesday's practice. He is expected to be ready Friday. Senior guard/forward Reggie Redding is suspended for the fall semester.
Fairleigh Dickinson -- Senior point guard Cameron Tyler who started next to Jean Baptiste and logged even more minutes in 2009 than the Knight's most prolific scorer, is benched for the fall semester with academic issues. He will not play.

Preview -- Pittsburgh #2...Not Here

The Wildcats and Panthers know each other pretty well by now, having played 9 times in the Wright-Dixon Era (2003-2009). Villanova's tally during that period -- 4-5. Everybody who follows either (or both) of the teams has a pretty good idea of what each must do in order to win. And make no mistake, either team can win this game, despite what the simulations and analysts might say. So how are the experts calling this one?

The ink media homies say...
The game has NCAA, Big East, but ultimately state-level rivalry implications that dig into the psychie of each of Pennsylvania's two largest cities...
Joe Juliani over at the Philadelphia Inquirer thinks the game will focus on defense -- consistent with the shared history and each staff's "defense first" philosophy. Juliano looks to Cunningham, Reynolds and Fisher to power the Wildcats, while Young, Blair and Fields will headline for the Panthers.
The Post-Gazette's Ray Fittipaldo believes the Panthers' rocky start in the tournament is behind them as their win over Xavier Thursday gets them over that Sweet Sixteen hump. The Panthers are looking to return to the Final Four for the first time since 1941. Fittipaldo's material is drawn mostly from yesterday's press conferences.
The PDN's Mike Kern believes the momentum gathered through Nova's 1st three tournament games will be essential if the Wildcats are to prevail today. Kern does a nice job of juxtaposing coaching records/backgrounds and records, paths to the Elite Eight and "To Do" Lists. He too foresees the basketball equivalent of a Sumo wrestling match.
The Tribune-Review's John Grupp puts his analysis on the sidebar and gives senior guard Levance Fields center stage. The Panther Nation looks at this as the biggest game in Pitt basketball history, and Fields wants to win it for Head Coach Jamie Dixon. Keys to the game according to Grupp include (for Villanova...) containing Young and distribute the scoring, and (for Pittsburgh) keeping Blair on the court and out of foul trouble, valuing the ball and hit their outside shots, so the 'Cats will not be able to collapse on Blair and shut down the passing lanes.

The national media say...
ESPN links to an anonymous preview from the AP, though Andy Katz does kick in two pieces, the first a close-up recap of Pitt's tight win over Xavier; the second a compare/contrast piece on Dixon & Wright, two coaches, Katz suggests, who will make up the new hierarchy in the Big East (assuming each stays put).
Over at CBS Sportsline, former assistant and current HC Joe Jones and Jason Horowitz do a video preview. Jones likes Villanova as Pitt has been inconsistent so far. Over at the regional coverage they posted a side-by-side comparison of the Panthers and Wildcats. Authored by "The Sports Xchange", it suggests Blair has to avoid foul trouble and Scottie is Nova's go-to guy. CBS stringer Mike Freeman, doing his best Gregg Doyel cover, finger wags at Pittsburgh for their string of close wins through the first three rounds of the tournament. He also does a pretty good side-by-side profiles of Blair and Cunningham, suggesting this is going to be a battle on the inside.

Alex Wolff over at Sports Illustrated starts out with a profile on DeJuan Blair, works in the improbability storyline (well mined) on Blair, before finishing up with a spoonful of interstate rivalry (Pittsburgh vs Philadelphia), topped with a large helping of class rivalry (Pittsburgh is working class with dirty air, the Main Line is toney...). Bring your Alka-Seltzer.

What the Bloggers say...
The NBE Blogger calls this one for Pitt, 73-67. That is a bit more than most others.
Over at the Bleacher Report a committee of writers favors Pitt, 3-2. A few basic stats to look at for those who are interested. Frequent Nova writer ? puts together a "...By the Numbers" breakdown of the two teams, on his way to teasing you into yet another click on the Bleacher Reports web site. Sorry I didn't go the extra click, so I don't know who he picked (but I'm gonna guess it might be Villanova).
The Nova Nation Blogosphere is unusually quiet this weekend. Everyone in Boston (I see Chris over at IBBW posted a quick note from Bean town, indicating that the VUAA reception is overbooked to the point where they have had to rent a second bar...some things never change)? Preparing "Regional Final/Off to the Final Four!" posts? It seems that only Let's Go Nova, VUhoops.com and the Villanovan Sports Blog have posted pregame reviews. VUHoops.com posted the latest in their pregame series, "Game 37 vs #1 Pittsburgh", which gives a run down on what has changed since their last meeting in January. Their second post, "Comparing Stats with Pitt", is more a Tale of the Tape post as they take a statistical look at the two teams. LGN's Pete posted that this might be the first of the four NCAA games so far where the Wildcats may be at a disadvantage on the interior. Meanwhile David over at the Villanovan Sports Blog seems to close the circle from the senior's freshman year, when the team ran to the Regional Finals in Minneapolis only to fall to Florida to this season, when these seniors want to take the next step.


What Pomeroy and Pythagoras Say...
Largely overlooked in the 1st few rounds of the tournament, the Wildcat's Offensive and Defensive adjusted ratings have "crossed over" into the elite territory associated with Final Four teams. The The game will be played for about 68 possessions, with the Panthers taking a 74-72 decision.

Preview -- Syracuse II

The Wildcats and Orange close out their home-n-home series as Nova travels to Syracuse to play in the Dome. The 'Cats are currently 9-4 in the Big East (20-5 overall), holding down 5th place and the Tuesday bye. Syracuse has climbed to 7-6 (19-7 overall), after starting the season with an 18-1 jag. In the past month they caught a 2-6 slide before a Valentine's Day victory over Georgetown (98-94 OT) at the Dome. They currently have a 25 game winning streak at the Pavilion. The Warriors are 7-1 in the Big East, complements in part to the win against the 'Cats at the Bradley Center to kick off both team's Big East regular season. Marquette comes in off of an unexpected loss to South Florida last Friday. Will the Warriors get back on a winning track? Or will Nova even this year's series & extend their streak in the Pav 26?...

Common Opponents, Good Wins, Bad Losses...continued...
Since they last met Cuse dropped a road game to Connecticut (63-49, -14 -- compare to Nova's 89-83, -6 loss) and beat West Virginia at home (OT 98-94, +4 -- compare to Nova's 93-72, -21).

Roster Notes
Syracuse -- Arinze Onuaku & Andy Rautins, limited due to injury for the Philadelphia end of the home-n-home, appear to be back to 100%, more or less. Rautins played 34 minutes versus Villanova, and averaged 26 minutes in the two games that followed. Eric Devendorf started when Rautins was sidelined, and has continued to start after his return. Expect Devo to start against Nova.
Onuaku was hobbled, though not sidelined in the week before the 1st Villanova game. He started the February 7th game & logged 21 minutes of PT. Those minutes grew (slightly) for the Connecticut where he exceeded 65% of the PT for the center spot. He played 40 minutes in the Orange's overtime win over Georgetown (that is >88% of the PT). Barring re-injury, expect him to start against the Wildcats and play a more typical 70% PT.

Villanova -- Senior Dwayne Anderson hyperextended his knee in the 2nd Marquette game. Anderson (like Onuaku) continued to play, seeing time in both the West Virginia and Rutgers games. Expect him to start again up in the Dome.

Want to Beat the Orange? Then...
Shooting, shot defense and rebounding (offensive rebounding) continue to be the leading indicators for winning or losing with both teams -- the 1st game confirmed this trend (see my post game analysis for the 1st game.), and the Orange's two subsequent games did not not reverse the trend.
1. Defend their shots -- When Syracuse converts (eFG%) at less than 50.0, they have gone 3-4, but in all of those wins (West Virginia, Canisius & South Florida...), their opponent converted at rates of 41.0 or less. Which brings us to the second key...
2. Hit your shots -- When their opponents have converted at rates of (eFG%) 57.1 or better, the Orange are 1-4. Their lone win was Georgetown -- and they needed an overtime period to finish the Hoyas. When Villanova converts at a (eFG%) rate of 50.7 or better they are 12-1.
3. Take It Slowly -- or Really Quickly -- Villanova appears to be bi-polar on the issue of possessions. When slower than the D1 average (of 66), the 'Cats are 9-0. When 15% higher, they are 3-1. At half-time of their first game I was concerned because it was clear the teams would be (well) above the D1 average, and above their own projected pace. The Wildcats won that game going away. By contrast, Syracuse does not seem comfortable in more deliberate games. In games where the pace has been 67 or lower (about Nova's speed), the Orange have gone 3-4.
4. Contest for Offensive Rebounds -- Syracuse has a pretty strong marker for opponent's offensive rebounding. In games where their opponent has been able to grab 36.8% or more of their missed shots, Syracuse has gone 4-6. Nova's offensive rebounding rate is 36.4%, right at the threshold. Nova has grabbed 36.7% or more of their misses in 11 games this season, going 11-0 in those games (the 'Cats grabbed 42.1 in game #1). When they grabbed 34.7% or less, they went 8-5.
5. Get to the Line -- Villanova has been held to an FTA/FGA rate of 24.2 or lower only once all season (it was Monmouth, and the 'Cats won anyway). That is what the Orange's opponents average. Villanova's FTRate in game #1 was 48.5, the highest allowed all season by the Orange. Since that game Syracuse allowed another opponent to accumulate an FTRate of 45.8 (UConn) & they lost that game too. When the opponent gets to the line 28.3% or higher, the Orange have gone 3-5.

Finally...
...Both teams with 1-1 records since they last met. Both won games they were supposed to, but not quite as impressively as expected. And both lost on the road (expected) by double digits (not expected & disappointing). For the Orange, a win brings their total to 20 for the season, puts them +2 above .500 in the conference (8 wins) with 4 games left (strongly suggesting they win at least 9 and go the to Dance as they still have Rutgers on the schedule). A loss on the other hand brings them back down to .500 and delays win number 20 for another 2 to 7 days.

Win and Villanova sweeps the series and should lock up at least 5th place in the Big East, as a win at the Dome would be number 10 for them. At this point the 'Cats are playing for seed in the Dance, a road win over a Top 25 RPI opponent (Cuse is #17) can only strengthen their case.

Syracuse is 5-1 at home in conference games this season. Villanova is 3-3 in conference road games to this point

Pomeroy's calculations project that this game will be played for 73 possession, well above the projection for their last game (and a good deal closer to the actual pace of that game), with Syracuse taking a 1 point decision (78-77). Pomeroy's degree of certainty is 54%, which suggests this game is pretty close to a tossup, at the very least a one possession game. The 'Cats have the best FT% in the conference. It may come in handy at the Dome.

Preview -- Temple

The Wildcats and Owls square off in the game that may well crown the winner (and runner up) of the 2009 City Series, even before the 2009 year begins. The 'Cats enter the game with a 3-0 record in the City Series, and this will be Temple's first game in the series this season. How times have changed. Villanova holds a ??-?? edge in a series that goes back to 1922. This is the most competitive (for Villanova anyway) of the City Series rivalries...

What Others Say...
...Blue Ribbon gives the backcourt a B+, the frontcourt a B and the bench/depth a B-. ESPN Magazine projected Temple as the #2 finisher in the A10 conference this season. College ChalkTalk Blog's preview (a well written piece by Andrew Green), projected the Owls to finish #2 in the A10 & earn their second consecutive bid to the NCAAs...

So Far...
...Temple (A10, 5-5, RPI #31) comes into the game off a road loss (76-71) to Long Beach State. The folks in Kingston, on Rose Hill, Hawk Hill and over on West Olney will no doubt watch the game with great interest as they too will face the Owls in the weeks and months to come. But to date anyway, the Owls and Wildcats share no common opponents. Notable wins for Temple include Tennessee (SEC, 8-2, RPI #29) at home and Penn State (Big Ten, 11-2, RPI #147) on the road, while good losses include Clemson (ACC, 12-0, RPI #48) and Miami(OH) (MAC, 6-4, RPI #20). Other games of interest include a road loss to Kansas (Big 12, 8-3, RPI #123) and a win over near RPI poison Lafayette (Pat, 2-8, RPI #287). The 'Cats enter this game sporting a 10-1 record - their most recent effort against Navy produced an underwhelming 15 point victory.

Frontcourt vs. frontcourt...
Coach Dunphy has experimented with his front court line up from virtually the first regular season game. He was gone from a 4 guard starting lineup with either sophomore Lavoy Allen (6-9, 225lbs) or senior Sergio Olmos (7-0, 220lbs) as the sole front court player (not counting senior Dionte Christmas...). Coach Dunphy has also started freshman Michael Eric (6-11, 225lbs) once or twice. Lately the Owls have started Olmos and one of Eric or Allen, the other logging at least double digit minutes. Aside from senior Dionte Christmas, who at 6-5 and 205 pounds can be classified as a big guard or a small forward, the Owls use their other front court contingent, senior Rafael DeLeon (6-5, 200lbs), sophomore Craig Williams (6-9, 240lbs) and the freshmen Scootie Randall (6-6, 205lbs) and Dante Wooten (6-8, 215lbs), very little. The Owls' offense comes from their back court , but if the ball goes inside, look for either Olmos or Allen to get involved. Neither is a "go-to/star" level offensive threat, but either can serve as the 3rd or 4th option on offense.

The Wildcats will most likely start Dante Cunningham, Antonio Pena and Dwayne Anderson as their front court complement. Cunningham has had a terrific year so far, scoring his 5th double-double of the season against Navy. If the 'Cats are determined to test the Owls interior defense, look for low post passes to Dante (and to a lesser degree Antonio) early and often. Pena's performances so far have been inconsistent. He had good games early on against Fordham, Towson and Rhody, but the Texas game seemed to put him into a scoring slump. He did recover his rebounding against Navy, scooping up 12 boards. Dwayne Anderson was inserted into the starting line up for the St. Joseph's game and has started every since. His performances have shown all of the earmarks of a player recovering his feel for the game. Against Navy Anderson scored 4 points and 4 rebounds in 17 minutes of play. Look for Shane Clark to put in at least 10 minutes, and Frank Tchuisi will log some time should the 'Cats get up early and maintain control throughout.

Backcourt vs. backcourt...
The Owls will most likely start 3 from the cohort of seniors Dionte Christmas (6-5, 205lbs) & Semaj Inge (6-4, 190lbs) and juniors Ryan Brooks (6-4, 200lbs) & Louis Guzman (6-3, 200lbs) -- with Brooks, Christmas and Inge the heavy favorites. Inge and Guzman will (occasionally) get their scoring opportunities, but those two spend a good deal of their touches setting up Brooks and especially Christmas. Dionte Christmas is the star of this squad, as reflected by his possessions (27.9) and shooting (30.8) stats. Brooks, with a Poss% of 17.2 and Shot% of 20.3, has demonstrated his value as a very efficient 2nd option. Look for Christmas (and to a lesser degree) Brooks to take their shots from the outside. Christmas in particular has taken 6 of every 10 FGAs from beyond the arc. And why not, hitting at a 41.7% rate generates as many points as he would get hitting 62.6% of his 2s. Freshmen Ramone Moore (6-4, 180lbs) and TJ DiLeo (6-2, 195lbs) have also drawn minutes. Though Coach Dunphy has called DiLeo's number more consistently in the last three games, either may draw between 7 and 20 minutes.

Villanova will most likely start Scottie Reynolds and Corey Stokes in back court. While Corey Fisher drew some starts early, though he has not started since Dwayne Anderson finished his rehab. Look for Fisher and Reggie Redding to get court time. If Christmas hits early and often, the staff may turn to Redding to shut him down. Scottie has had two pretty good games back-to-back in La Salle and Navy. Against La Salle he formed a very effective triple scoring threat with the two Coreys.

Temple By the Numbers...
The last 5 years include both the end of the Chaney Era and the beginning of the Dunphy Era, and the RPI wind-down and subsequent build-up reflects the trend. Temple's RPI at the end of the Chaney Era hovered in the #74 - #98 range, logical given the school's membership in the A10 and Chaney's scheduling habits. The changeover period saw Temple's RPI drop (drastically) to #182 before recovering to #47 (closer to it's historic standing) last season. Currently the Owls are ranked #31. Dunphy runs a low possession offense (66.4 possessions, adjusted, via Ken Pomeroy's Temple Scout Page which ranks the Owls #215 out of approx. 343 -- the current average for pace is 67.7) that employs traditional motion principles to find an open shooter. Temple's offensive efficiency, at 108.1 adjusted (that's 1.08 points per possession, good for a #71 rank), suggests they have been largely successful at finding their shot. Defense has been the problem for the Owls. A defensive efficiency of 97.0 (adjusted, their raw efficiency, at 102.4 suggests they have problems against some of the better offensive teams in D1) ranks them at #71, a better than average defensive squad. A look at Oliver's four factors provides insight on some of the Owls strengths and weaknesses...

When Temple has the ball...
				FTA
	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FGA
Owl O	51.8	21.5	32.7	18.7
Wildcat D	44.9	23.3	28.7	35.4

The Owls' greatest virtue on offense is their shooting efficiency (at 51.8, good for a ranking of #80, the upper quarter of D1 teams). The key is their accuracy on three point shooting, at 36.8%, good for an #81 ranking (equivalent to shooting 55.2% from inside the arc). Their 49.9% 2 point accuracy suggests they score with about the same proficiency from inside as outside the arc. Remember that Navy's outside shooting boosted the Middies' eFG% for their game to 50.0%, a disappointing night for Nova's 3 point defense. The Owls, while apparently not as accurate as Navy, nevertheless have long range shooters and work them within Coach Dunphy's scheme. Look for another test of Villanova's 3 point defense. The Owls are a bit "below average" on turnovers and offensive boards (they turn the ball over and don't get O boards...). Oh, and they don't get to the line much. The Owls do tend to convert free throws when they get to the line however, so the key will be to keep them off the line. Defensively Nova tends to force turnovers (especially in the first half) and control the boards, so if Villanova can perform to their numbers against Temple, the Owls may become frustrated by lack of scoring opportunities. A four factors look at the opposite side of the ball...

When Villanova has the ball...
				FTA
	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FGA
Wildcat O	51.7	17.6	37.8	31.7
Owl D	50.2	19.4	30.4	34.5

Nova scores with efficiency on the inside (due in no small part to Dante Cunningham), while Temple has been very average defending the 2, and porous at stopping the 3. This appears to be the Owls' greatest defensive weakness, so a good shooting night for the 'Cats, particularly Stokes from the outside, Cunningham from the inside and Reynolds from (about...) anywhere should bode well for Villanova. Temple is not aggressive on the ball, so turnovers, should they occur, will most likely be on the Wildcat ball handlers. The boards under Villanova's basket, however, should be a battleground, look for an Olmos/Allen versus Cunningham/Pena/Anderson matchup. If the Wildcat's shots are not dropping, second chance points will bececome very important. Boxing out Dante could be critical, as he accounts for many of the Wildcat's offensive boards. Pomeroy's Scout Page also suggests the Owls are prone to foul. It is not clear from the data however, if those are aggressive fouls or change of possession fouls.

Finally...
...Villanova had difficulty controlling Navy's Chris Harris from beyond the arc. Dionte Christmas leads an upperclassmen-dominated back court that should be even more effective from the outside. Look for a stern test of Nova's 3 point defense. Again. Hopefully the 'Cats will do better this time. Temple's own problems defending the 3 pose an interesting problem for Villanova's staff. Do they play Reggie Redding to shut down Christmas? Or do they play Corey Stokes in the hope of winning a shootout? Control of the offensive boards and the ability to generate second chance points may dictate the choices made on the outside.

The Temple staff appear to favor either an eight or ten man rotation. Close games tend to favor the shallower bench (much like Villanova), with the longer bench coming into play when the first eight have foul troubles (or the game gets away from them). Villanova fans tend to see more players when the game is under control. If this becomes an inside-outside scoring game for Villanova (Cunningham and Reynolds), someone else in the rotation (Anderson? Stokes? Clark?) will have to step up to maintain the cushion. If the game remains close, Temple has the horses to take the game.

According to Pomeoy's calculations, the game should be played for about 64 possessions (lower than usual for the 'Cats), with Villanova taking a 12 point decision.

Preview -- Navy

Villanova hosts former assistant (now the Naval Academy's Head basketball Coach) Billy Lange and his Midshipmen at the Pavilion Monday evening. This will be the second meeting in three seasons after a hiatus of nearly 58 years. The Wildcats won that last meeting by 9 points, 70-61, but Navy leads the series 3-5. Maybe the 'Cats can bring the series a bit closer to .500 this season...

What Others Say...
...Blue Ribbon gives the backcourt a A, the frontcourt a C+ and the bench/depth a B+. The BRY predicts the Middies will finish 3rd in the Patriot League this season. Marty Leon over at the Rush the Court Blog predicted a 2nd place finish for Navy with the note that the Middies return nine of their top 10 scorers. Leon also identified senior guard Kaleo Kina as one of the Patriot Leagues "best returnees"...

So Far...
Navy (Patriot League, 8-3, RPI #209) comes to the Mainline off a lose Saturday to Canisius (MAAC, 4-7, RPI #150). The Middies best wins this season include a 12 point win over St. Francis(NY) (NEC, 3-6, RPI #144) and a 3 point win over Mount St. Mary's (NEC, 3-7, RPI #139). The Midshipmen's two "best losses" were a gutty 9 point loss to the Va Tech Hokies (ACC, 7-4, RPI #88) and the aforementioned 5 point loss to the Golden Griffens of Canisius. Villanova and Navy both played Towson and Penn so far this year:

	Nova		Navy
Opponent	W/L	Diff.	W/L	Diff.
Towson	W	+17	L	-18
Penn	W	+23	W	+11

Frontcourt vs frontcourt...
...Coach Lange used a traditional starting lineup in the beginning of the season, putting sophomore Mark Veazey (6-10, 230lbs) in the middle and flanking him with senior forward Adam Teague (6-8, 225lbs). The past few games he has started 4 guards and brought Teague in for about 30 minutes. Sophomore Jeremy Wilson (6-10, 235lbs), junior T.J. Topercer (6-8, 227lbs) and senior Brian Richards (6-9, 235lbs) see limited minutes, not in every game. Those three contribute mostly through rebounding.

Villanova will start Dante Cunningham and Antonio Pena, as they have in their previous eleven games. Dwayne Anderson has started the last two games, now that his rehabilitation is completed. Frank Tchuisi may also see minutes if the game is in hand, or someone is in foul trouble.

Backcourt vs backcourt...
...Navy has started four guards in their previous three games. The quartet, senior Kaleo Kina (6-4, 210lbs), junior Chris Harris (6-2, 185lbs) and sophomores Romeo Garcia (6-4, 207lbs) and O.J. Avworo (6-0, 195lbs), have, over the past four games, collectively taken over 70% of the minutes available (Kina alone accounts for 90% of the minutes at a single guard position). If they are on the floor together, assume that at least 4 of every 5 shots taken will come from one of those four (most often from Kina). Collectively they account for 2/3 of all shots taken by the team over the past 4 games. Coach Lange has a mid-major version of Nova's four guard offense from 2006, with Kaleo Kina as their Randy Foye. Kina has become the focus of the offense too, taking over 1 in 3 of the Middies' FGAs when he is on the floor. The most prolific outside shoot however is the junior guard Chris Harris, with forward Adam Teague and Kina a distant 2nd and 3rd. Navy will take nearly 4 in 10 FGAs from beyond the arc, so Harris and Kina (and Teague) will shoot early and often.

Villanova has started Scottie Reynolds and Corey Stokes in every game this season. Expect that to continue. For the past two games senior Dwayne Anderson has started over sophomore Corey Fisher. Fisher and junior Reggie Redding will rotate in within the first 5 - 8 minutes of the first half. Both will take doule digit minutes, with Fisher playing some #1 and #2, while Redding covers everything from #1 to #4 (but mostly #2 & #3). Scottie remains the 1st option on offense, with Corey Stokes adding a nice complement from the outside. Both Coreys, Stokes and Fisher had very efficient games against La Salle. Hopefully this game will continue the trend.

Navy By the Numbers...
The Middies' RPI has fluctuated in a range of low 200s to low 300s over the past 5 years. Navy's offense fits the perimeter-oriented (POT) style outlined by John Gasaway in his previous life as The Big Ten Wonk. The Midshipmen prefer a higher possession style game, averaging about 71.5 possessions, adjusted, via Ken Pomeroy's Navy Scout Page which ranks them #51 out of approx. 343 (the current average D1 pace is 67.8). Navy's offense has struggled so far, netting about 0.966 points per possession (96.6 ORtg), good for a #225 ranking. Their defense, giving up (adjusted) about 0.994 (99.4 DRtg -- (ranked #158) is closer to (and a bit better than...) the D1 average of 99.7. Looking below the surface numbers, at Oliver's Four Factor, we find...

When Navy has the ball...
				FTA
	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FGA
Middie O	47.9	20.0	31.1	29.1
Wildcat D	44.4	23.1	28.9	35.5

At 47.9 the Midshipmen are below the D1 average on field goal efficiency, yet their 3FGM conversion rate, at 32.0%, is the reason their ranking is so low (#195). The balance of Navy's offensive factors (TO%, OR% and FTA/FGA) all fit Gasaway's POT profile. Given the Wildcat's 3 point shot defense (currently at 31.2%, but historically much more porous...) should receive a good test Monday evening. The rebounding matchup should be very interesting. Nova is outstanding at defending the boards, while Navy has struggled (or does not consider them an offensive priority...). Look for a big defensive rebounding night, the type of conditions (other factors considered) that could spell another double-double night for Dante Cunningham. Again owing to Navy's POT profile, a Villanova defensive weakness, putting opposing players on the charity stripe, may not be a factor in this game. Looking at the other half of the matchups...

When Villanova has the ball...
				FTA
	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FGA
Wildcat O	52.4	18.1	37.4	32.1
Middie D	44.4	19.8	32.3	44.2

Defensive eFG% is the same for both teams -- I will be interested to see how each team actually shoots and defends. The 'Cats have been effective from the floor, the rise in eFG% in part the result of integrating the front court (ie Dante Cunningham) into the offense. Navy is an average defensive rebounding team, while Nova has been pretty good on the offensive boards over the course of the season, though they have fallen off the in the past 3 games. Navy's tendency to foul (FTA/FGA -- the Middies are ranked #296) is a weakness that may well be tracable to their smaller (less athletic?) line up. Navy's guard quartet tends to collect a lot of whistles, with Garcia and Harris the two most likely to sit via DQs. Villanova's larger front court and more athletic wings ought to be able to exploit their counterparts. The 'Cats routinely look for 20% or more of their points from the line.


Finally...
...While the Navy staff has favored a four guard starting line up lately, I wonder if they will go with Teague at the #4 to counter Villanova's size, and sit one of Harris, Garcia (most likely?) or Avworo for the first few minutes. Should they go with the smaller line up will Villanova counter by pairing Clark, Anderson and/or Redding with Cunningham/Pena (rather than playing Te and Tone in tandem).

Pomeroy projects the teams to get about 69 possessions apiece (above the average for D1), with Nova notching a 22 point decision. That margin of victory seems high, especially given Coach Lange's history on the Villanova staff, that the players and staff continue to mull and develop their roles within the offensive and defensive framework and the staff's tendency to tinker and adjust playing time.