Oh Canada! Cincinnati - Carleton Post Game

Looking at the Numbers
Carleton released the official boxscore earlier today. I have chewed on the numbers a bit, and there a few points of interest that might be worth going over here. First the totals by quarters...

	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	Total
Cincinnati	21	18	34	14	87
McGill	17	11	22	20	70

The Bearcats started fast Saturday night, perhaps taking heed of Carleton's reputation. Up by four after the first quarter, Cincinnati hit the after burners and ran out to an 11 point lead, 39-28 going into the half-time break. Not content to run out the clock, the Bearcats nearly equaled their first half numbers in the third quarter alone, adding another 12 points to their lead, and racking up a 73-50 bulge going into the last quarter. Carleton pulled it together, and using a mix of fast breaks and penetrate and kick-out passes, managed to win the quarter (only the second of the eight quarters played so far lost by the Bearcats), cut six points off of their deficit. Carleton's closing rush put the final score at 87-70. CIS blogger Mark Wacyk noted in his recap, that Carleton held a lead as late as midway through the second quarter, but that Cincinnati was able to retake the lead with scoring bursts. Mark cited the play of 6'6" third year wing Dan Penner, 6'3" Elliott Thompson, 6'6" Cole Hobin and 6'3" freshman Phil Scrubb as bright spots for the Ravens going into their 2011 CIS campaign. The efficiencies and Oliver's four factors:

		Off				FTA
	Pace	Eff	eFG%	TO%	OReb%	FGA	PPWS
Cincinnati	66.5	130.9	62.7	15.0	46.4	86.7	1.29
Carleton		105.3	54.8	33.1	42.4	75.0	1.16

66-67 possessions is very consistent with Cincinnati's play last season...but uncharacteristic of an exhibition game, where each team's offense tends to attack the basket and shoot more quickly. Coach Cronin used a mix of ball screens and penetrate and kick-out passes to find and free-up shooters. The Bearcats' offensive rebounding rate was about where I expected it, in the mid 40s. Their defensive rebounding (100-Carleton's offensive rebounding rate), at 57.6%, is uncharacteristically low. Perhaps Carleton Coach Dave Smart had the Ravens set to crash their offensive boards, or having Carleton take 40.4% of their field goal attempts from the three point line created longer-than-anticipated rebounds, and Cincinnati never adjusted. Either scenario may hold, but the Bearcats, who can expect to find three point-focused offenses both in the Big East and in their OOC, will have to learn to recognize and adjust if they hope to maintain board dominance. Rebounding is especially important to Cincinnati, particularly if their offense runs into unproductive stretches. The defensive efficiency (Carleton's offensive efficiency -- 105.3) is troubling as well. The problem can be traced to the Bearcats' lack of defense on the perimeter. Note Carleton's 54.8 eFG -- that number weighs in Carleton's 42.8% conversion rate (9-21) on three point attempts. That is definitely an area for improvement...

						FTA
Player	%Min	Poss%	Shot%	eFG%	PPWS	FGA
Dion Dixon	60.0	22.5	27.3	105.6	2.11	22.2
Darnell Wilks	67.5	15.0	10.8	25.0	0.50	0.0
Ibrahima Thomas	37.5	14.0	9.7	150.0	2.56	200.0
Yancy Gates	47.5	37.7	30.6	50.0	0.87	62.5
Jaquon Parker	37.5	13.7	14.5	33.3	0.67	0.0
Cashmere Wright	55.0	20.7	19.8	66.7	1.33	0.0
Larry Davis	45.0	24.9	32.3	56.3	1.13	0.0
Rashad Bishop	55.0	17.2	16.5	70.0	1.40	0.0
Sean Kilpatrick	47.5	40.8	34.4	33.3	0.97	77.8
Kelvin Gaines	12.5	13.5	14.5	100.0	1.36	100.0
McClain Anthony	35.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.50	0.0

Hellooo Mr. Dixon...
News that junior wing Dion Dixon had a great game were not exaggerated. While logging 60% of the minutes in the guard rotation Dixon shot 8-9 from the field that included 3-4 from beyond the arc. He posted a game-high 21 points while dishing two assists for teammates. Games like this suggest that Dixon may one of those pieces Coach Cronin is looking for to ease the post Vaughn transition. Of interest is the amount of time Darnell Wilks logged -- 67.5%, the team-high. The senior wing continues to defer to teammates on offense (for better or worse). While the 6-7 forward did a terrific job on the offensive boards his shot was not dropping (1-4) and he faded to a 5th option on offense while he was in the game. Cincinnati's offense came from a triad of Dixon, Gates (no shock there -- 30.6% of the shots) and senior guard Larry Davis (a whopping 32.3% of the shots). Davis and Gates had very efficient nights, but were overshadowed by Dixon's numbers. Good to see three players turning in very effective efforts. Rashad Bishop, Sean Kilpatrick and Jaquon Parker, effective in the McGill game, all stepped back a bit against the Ravens. A look at the assist rates and rebounding...

	Ast%	OR%	DR%	TO%	Blk%	Stl%
Dion Dixon	20.0	0.0	15.2	11.1	0.0	5.0
Darnell Wilks	5.2	10.6	4.5	29.7	0.0	0.0
Ibrahima Thomas	10.8	9.5	0.0	0.0	0.0	4.0
Yancy Gates	0.0	15.0	19.1	16.8	0.0	3.2
Jaquon Parker	19.5	0.0	32.3	0.0	0.0	4.0
Cashmere Wright	22.2	6.5	22.0	13.2	0.0	5.5
Larry Davis	10.5	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	3.3
Rashad Bishop	0.0	0.0	0.0	31.8	0.0	0.0
Sean Kilpatrick	8.9	7.5	6.4	7.8	0.0	3.2
Kelvin Gaines	0.0	0.0	24.2	0.0	25.8	0.0
McClain Anthony	0.0	20.4	17.3	0.0	18.4	4.3

Cashmere Wright, Parker and Dixon did well (but not outstanding) as they set up teammates via assists. That Parker, Wright and Dixon had great defensive rebounding rates confirms the Carleton misses were long.

Next...
Cincinnati will play the University of Ottawa Gee-Gees at the gym in Montpetit Hall on uOttawa's campus on Sunday, 2:00pm. The game will be streamed live.

Other Tour Posts
The McGill game recap.
McGill post game analysis.
Guest contributor Mark Wacyk describes The CIS & Carleton
A brief Carleton game recap.

Oh Canada! Cincinnati Beats Carleton 87-70, Goes 2-0 on Tour

Coach Cronin may have pared his rotation down to 11 for this game, anticipating perhaps that this would be the hardest game of the tour. He was right. The score by quarters...

	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	Total
Cincinnati	21	18	34	14	87
Carleton	17	11	22	20	70

Working the lead out to the mid 20s in the third quarter, the Bearcats left Dion Dixon and Yancy Gates on the court, but the Carleton Ravens nevertheless seemed to catch fire half-way through the fourth quarter. Mixing fast break scores with three point strikes from beyond the arc, complements of perimeter passing and lane drives with kick-out passes, the Ravens shaved about 10 points off of the Bearcats' lead. With the kind of determination one almost always finds in winning programs, Carleton held Cincinnati to less than 90 points while they won the fourth quarter and closed out the game, 87-70.

Junior guard Dion Dixon led all scorers with 21 points. Saturday's game was an improvement over Friday's effort versus McGill. Philip Scrubb, a second year guard led the Ravens with 16 points. The Bearcats dominated the boards...barely, as they outrebounded the Ravens 32 to 29.

Mark Wacyk of the CIS Hoops.ca Blog was at the game and posted a recap. I will try to locate a box score and post the possession-based statistics with a few thoughts later.

Further Reading
Ottawa's local pager, The Citizen, posted a game recap around 11 pm on Saturday.
The Carleton University Athletic website posted game recap about three hours after the game.
A brief Cincinnati-McGill recap posted here yesterday.

Guest Contributor: Mark Wacyk -- About the CIS

Mark Wacyk, a resident of Ontario Province Canada, created the CIS Hoops.ca Blogs where he writes about Canadian intercollegiate basketball. I asked Mark about the CIS organization and Canadian basketball, and he was kind enough to provide this background for USA fans who may be following their team on a Canadian tour...

Canadian Basketball and the CIS
by Mark Wacyk

Canadian Interuniversity Sport (CIS) is Canada's equivalent to the NCAA and member institutions Varsity sports programs compete for national championships in basketball and several other sports. The top CIS basketball teams are roughly competitive to low D1 programs while most other programs could compete in mid-D2 and DIII. CIS programs cannot offer full athletic scholarships, primarily due to resource constraints so most quality Canadian high school kids rarely stay home, instead playing NCAA basketball. Still, Carleton Ravens, the top program in Canada over the past decade with six national championships over the past 8 seasons, have 5 graduates who play professionally in Europe including 6'7" Aaron Doornekamp, who plays in Italy's Seria A (top league) where he starts and averages about 28 mpg. Usually, there are 8-10 players across the country in any year on CIS rosters who could play Division 1 basketball and make an impact but choose to stay home for various reasons. Conversely, probably 50-60 kids or more annually go south either to D1, JUCO, D2, DIII or prep school.

My opinion, validated through discussions with numerous U.S. coaches who have made the trip north to play Canadian teams, is that our best coaches are as sound technically and with in-game coaching as any in the U.S. however our programs are severely resource-constrained. Most Canadian kids still dream of playing NCAA D1 basketball but those who stay in the correct situation learn to play and can move on to play professionally. When CIS teams meet NCAA D1 teams from the best conferences, usually games remain close early until the sheer athleticism and depth of the U.S. teams take over. McGill was in the game for the first 17 minutes of play before Cincy started trapping, switching screens, running and jumping and basically their length and athleticism took over. Hope this helps.

I'll be going to Cincy/Carleton tonight.

And I will look for Mark's recap at CIS Hoops.ca -- greyCat.

Oh Canada! Cincinnati - McGill Post Game

Found a Servicable Boxscore...Let's Get Down to Business
The official boxscore has surfaced over at the McGill website as part of a game recap, but take it with a grain of salt. I have converted the Bearcat individual stats to possession-based efficiency ratings below. I pretty much trust what was recorded for the Bearcats, as much of it is confirmed via other postings, both at the Cincinnati website and by eyewitnesses. The Redmen numbers are suspect, particularly the "unknown player". I massaged their totals a bit -- field goals made and attempted particularly and rebounding -- to arrive at place where I can run the numbers for possessions and rebounding rates, and feel comfortable I am close to an accurate account. The totals by quarters first...

	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	Total
Cincinnati	16	26	23	24	89
McGill	20	14	11	13	58

Trailing coming out of the first quarter, the Bearcats managed to tie the game at the 4:00 minute mark of the second quarter, then put on an eight point burst to take (and hold) the lead, 42-34, going into the half. Several recaps note the Cincinnati, taking note of the eight second back court rule, began to press earlier in the possession to force McGill to dribble/pass through pressure. The scoring differential through the last three quarters (also noted in most recaps) was a striking 73-38 margin. CIS blogger Mark Wacyk noted in his recap, that McGill shooting in the first quarter was especially accurate and effective. The efficiencies and Oliver's four factors:

		Off				FTA
	Pace	Eff	eFG%	TO%	OReb%	FGA	PPWS
Cincinnati	63.0	141.2	60.2	4.8	30.8	40.7	1.26
McGill		92.0	51.1	17.5	10.7	30.4	1.10

63 possessions in an exhibition game, particularly where there is a gap in the scoring/athleticism/skill (note the Offensive Efficiency of each team and the 31 point scoring differential), is unusually low. That rate is more consistent with Northwestern (Princeton Offense), St. Louis (Coach Majerus' deliberate 4-out 1-in motion) and Pittsburgh, and lower, by about three-to-four possessions, than Cincinnati played to last season. The Bearcats, having lost Deonta Vaughn and Lance Stephenson, are, according to pre-tour interviews with Coach Cronin, intent on using the tour to develop a instinct for offense and develop a few basic ideas of how to score when they have the ball. In that context (looking for scorers and shooters), the lower possession rate makes sense. If the offensive rating (points per 100 possessions) is a dazzling 141.2, it is not predictive of great things coming in the 2011 season. It does suggest however, that there are offensive weapons on the roster...players who can score (at least against lower-level competition).

							FTA
Player	%Min	Poss%	Shot%	ORtg	eFG%	PPWS	FGA
Cashmere Wright	32.5	41.6	41.3	59.9	25.0	0.50	0.0
Eddie Tyree	7.5	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.00	0.0
Dion Dixon	55.0	24.0	18.3	98.6	66.7	1.16	66.7
Alex Eppenseine	7.5	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	2.27	0.0
Larry Davis	35.0	17.9	14.4	105.5	33.3	1.03	66.7
Darnell Wilks	57.5	12.2	8.8	133.1	83.3	1.80	66.7
Rashad Bishop	47.5	21.6	21.2	153.2	75.0	1.55	16.7
Sean Kilpatrick	57.5	23.4	26.3	153.4	77.8	1.56	0.0
Kelvin Gaines	15.0	26.7	11.2	209.7	100.0	2.13	200.0
Mugg McBride	2.5	63.3	67.1	0.0	0.0	0.00	0.0
Anthony McClain	32.5	15.3	10.3	113.7	50.0	1.04	100.0
Ibrahima Thomas	42.5	20.0	7.9	189.9	75.0	1.90	250.0
Yancy Gates	40.0	25.6	25.2	127.2	66.7	1.31	33.3
Jaquon Parker	62.5	32.1	32.2	99.6	58.3	1.16	16.7

While it very premature to draw broad conclusions based on a single exhibition game (or a three game tour for that matter), possession and shot rates suggest that the staff may use this tour as an audition for the next wave of Bearcat scorers and playmakers. The rotation went 15 deep, in part no doubt, due to the 31 point scoring margin, but possibly because the staff wanted to see a variety of player combinations as well. Jaquon Parker, Darnell Wilks, Dion Dixon and red shirt freshman Sean Kilpatrick appear (from the time allocation) to have gotten a very long look from the staff. Wilks remained invisible (note his 8.8% shot rate -- he was the 5th option on offense when he was on the floor), while Dixon pretty much played to where he has in the offense over the past two seasons, somewhere between a high-end "Role Player" (about 18-19% of the possessions and shots...possibly the 3rd option on offense) and a "Significant Contributor" (about 20-23% of the possessions and shots...possibly a 2nd option on offense if a more dominant offensive player is not on the court). Kilpatrick, a 6-4, 215 pound off guard, had a very good outing against McGill. Premature to be sure, but Kilpatrick, if he continues to score both efficiently and prolifically, may be one of the pieces for the team's offensive nucleus in 2011. A look at the assist rates and rebounding...

	Ast%	OR%	DR%	TO%	Blk%	Stl%
Cashmere Wright	11.0	11.8	22.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Eddie Tyree	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Dion Dixon	6.8	0.0	13.0	12.0	0.0	0.0
Alex Eppenseine	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Larry Davis	9.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Darnell Wilks	0.0	0.0	0.0	22.6	0.0	2.8
Rashad Bishop	8.2	8.1	7.5	0.0	0.0	3.3
Sean Kilpatrick	8.0	6.7	18.6	0.0	6.2	2.8
Kelvin Gaines	0.0	51.3	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Mugg McBride	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Anthony McClain	0.0	11.8	11.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Ibrahima Thomas	14.9	18.1	33.6	0.0	0.0	0.0
Yancy Gates	10.4	0.0	17.9	0.0	0.0	0.0
Jaquon Parker	0.0	0.0	28.6	7.9	0.0	0.0

The board domination is led by rising sophomores Dante Taylor and Talib Zanna, two front court players who had less impact than many expected their first year out. I will be interested to see how Coach Dixon works them into the rotation.

Notes and Observations...
1. Rashad Bishop is back on the roster, an unexpected development as Bishop ran afoul of the Coach at the end of the 2010 season and was suspended for some part of the spring and summer. His re-instatement was accomplished with no fanfare/announcement. His offensive capabilities are at a premium this season. Hopefully he will embrace this opportunity to elevate the team's offense.
2. Jaquon Parker was identified as the "point guard", but the sophomore had no assists. Parker, who showed an ability to score efficiently as a freshman, may be more of a pg in the Deonte Vaughn mold, a scorer who seems more comfortable scoring off the bounce. He took a very large share of the possessions and shots (over 32%, comparable to a Luke Harangody, even more than Jordan Crawford...) when he was on the floor. Given his team-high 16 points, and that he logged the largest share of the minutes, suggests he may be auditioning for Vaughn's role in the Bearcat offense for 2011.
3. I was interested to see how Ibby Thomas does. This first game is mixed showing. When he took the ball McGill seemed content to foul and put him on the line, where he was 5-5. But in 20 minutes of action he took only two FGAs, virtually invisible in the offense, he functioned as the #5 option on offense. Not a good sign if Gates is going to be effective as a #1/#2 option on offense. His progress on this tour may be one of the early indicators on where the Bearcat offense will come from this season.

Next...
Cincinnati will play the Carleton University Ravens at the Scotiabank Place Arena in downtown Ottawa on Saturday night, 6:00pm. The game will be streamed live.

Carleton University has been to the CIS (Canada's counterpart to the NCAA) what Kentucky and North Carolina have been to the NCAA. The Ravins normally go into the CIS basketball season as the presumptive favorites to take the CIS Championship. Comparing teams from the two organizations is a challenge, but generally the Canadian teams would probably perform comfortably in mid/low-level NCAA D1 conference, like the MAC, NEC and Southern Conferences. Carleton will most likely provide the Bearcats with their sternest test on the tour.

Oh Canada! St. John's North Country Tour

A Very Quick Preview
The NCAA banned these excursions as this fall, St. John's, having signed the contract to play before the ban, is exempt. The Johnnies may be one of the last universities to head North to get an early start on season with an extended exhibition. St. John's is scheduled to play a pair of "double headers" with 4 CIS university squads, McGill University, University of Quebec at Montreal, Carleton University and Ottawa University, over a two day period. Though technically these games are not double headers (St. John's will travel from McGill to UQAM's gym on Saturday, and from Carlton's facility to Ottawa's on Sunday), the schedule is fairly strenuous, and the staff will be forced by circumstances, to reach deep into the bench to keep pace. Between the two days, Sunday's schedule should be the more challenging, as the Johnnies face the Carleton University Ravens, winners of the CIS Championship in 6 of the last 7 seasons. The CIS (Canadian Interuniversity Sports) is the Canadian counterpart to the NCAA, and like the NCAA, they sponsor a nationwide post season tournament to determine a "national" champion. Carleton's coach, Dave Smart, has coached the Canadian National team for a number of years, leading them in a number of international competitions. The Ravens have been a regular stop for high-major teams heading North for the Labor Day Weekend, Coach Smart's squad has faced Villanova and Louisville out of the Big East in prior tours, defeating Alabama and playing Illinois of the Big Ten very closely.

The University of Ottawa Gee Gees are most likely the second most difficult stop on the tour. The Gee Gees finished 2nd in their conference (the OUA - East Division...not sure about the OUA abbreviation) to Carleton last season, and placed 5th in the CIS Tournament. The Johnnies will face the Gee Gees about 6 hours (and a cross town trip) after they complete their game with Carleton. The University of Quebec at Montreal (UQAM) Citadins (roughly translated, "townies" or "urbans") finished with an 8-8 record in their conference last season (the Quebec Conference), but did not compete in the CIS Tournament. McGill finished in a last place tie in the Quebec Conference in 2009, though the Redmen did have 17-15 record overall.

There is no reliable way to compare teams from the two organizations, but in the past Carleton has been described as a mid-major level program (RPI in the 70-110 range?), while the others scale down accordingly.

The Red Storm Beats...the Redmen?!
In an unusual case of nom deja vu (no pun intended...ok, maybe), the Red Storm defeated the McGill University Redmen, 90-55, this afternoon in Montreal. The game was competitive for the first quarter as the Redmen led the Red Storm 20-12, but St. John's turned on the burners in the second quarter to take a 52-26 lead into the locker room at the half. McGill never got back into it -- walk-on Kevin Clark was the last of 12 Red Storm players to whom the staff allocated minutes. McGill's website posted a recap of the game. Anthony Mason did not make the trip, the staff is playing it safe after he tweaked a hamstring in Thursdays practice. Only Dele Coker did not see action. Processing the box score (.pdf format) yielded these efficiency stats for the teams...

						FTA
Team	Pace	ORtg	eFG%	TOV	OR%	FGA	Ast%	Stl%	PPWS
St. John's	84.2	107.0	59.0	19.0	35.7	22.4	23.7	22.6	1.21
McGill	84.2	65.4	42.1	33.3	9.4	22.8	52.4	5.9	0.87

The pace, 84.2, tags this as an exhibition game. Among the high-majors, only North Carolina (and a few others) play routinely for that many possessions. Some of the good news...
1. The Red Storm logged an offensive rating of 107.0, one of the best offensive performances they have had in Coach Roberts' tenure. Check the PPWS -- at 1.21 the Johnnies were efficient from the floor, but also finished at the line when they were fouled.
2. Turnovers (TOV) and field goal efficiency (eFG%) showed improvement over last season.
3. Limiting McGill to an offensive rating (points per 100 possessions) of 65.4 is strong. It suggests that St. John's defended the shot well (indeed, note the Redmen's eFG% -- 42.1 is borderline stymied), provided very few 2nd chance opportunities (OR% of 9.4 is crushing on the defensive boards), and forced an extraordinarily high number of turnovers (TOV -- at 33.3 means McGill lost 1 in 3 possessions, most likely without getting a shot off).

A few areas of concern for the staff might include an offensive rebound rate of 35.7 and an assist rate of 23.7. In Big East snagging 35.7% of their misses would be very good, but given the Red Storm's absolute control of the defensive boards, I would have expected something over 40%, most likely in the range of 45-55. Strong shooting (except 3 pointers) may account for level of offensive rebounding. A "good" assist rate tends to depend on the type of offense the staff implements. Traditional half court sets and many (but not all) motion-oriented offenses rely on pick and roll, penetration and kick-out, or screens with catch-and-shoot plays. Frankly I am not familiar with the offense Coach Roberts runs. But whatever it is, it is not designed to have players shooting 18.8% from beyond the arc. The breakouts for the players...

							FTA
Players	Min%	Poss%	Shot%	eFG%	PPWS	ORtg	FGA	OR%	DR%
Hardy	65.0	18.9	23.0	40.0	0.80	77.3	0.0	0.0	4.8
Stith	65.0	11.7	6.9	66.7	1.54	140.5	200.0	5.5	24.0
Lawrence	57.5	18.0	18.2	42.9	0.86	68.7	0.0	6.2	21.7
Horne	52.5	14.2	17.1	75.0	1.50	143.7	0.0	0.0	17.9
Roberts	50.0	16.8	20.9	64.3	1.29	127.2	0.0	0.0	6.3
Brownlee	47.5	27.9	22.0	50.0	1.13	80.7	28.6	0.0	19.7
Kennedy	47.5	22.3	25.1	50.0	1.06	112.2	37.5	15.0	26.3
Boothe	37.5	24.0	15.9	100.0	1.84	132.0	75.0	9.5	16.7
Evans	35.0	28.7	34.1	50.0	1.00	94.8	0.0	30.6	35.7
Burrell	20.0	38.8	29.9	100.0	1.79	122.5	25.0	35.7	15.6
Thomas	17.5	18.5	25.6	66.7	1.33	147.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
Clark	5.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.00	0.0	NA	0.0	0.0

I sorted the table by Min%, though the starting lineup was Burrell, Boothe, Roberts, Horne and Kennedy, those five did not get the largest allocation of minutes. The starters in fact logged about 42% of total minutes, again consistent with exhibitions (particularly those which are over by half-time). Along with the familiar faces on offense (Burrell, Kennedy and Evans), it appears that JUCOs Dwight Hardy and Justin Brownlee will bring something to the table. Hardy however, will have to do better than 0-5 from 3 point range if the Johnnies offense is to have a credible perimeter game. Otherwise it just becomes too easy to concentrate on the front court players and shut the Reds' offense down.

The latest word from Montreal has St. John's beating UQAM by 40, 102-62. I will post the breakdown later.

Exhibitions of Interest

I must be getting very anxious for the start of the season...I am actually looking at exhibition games. I have a good excuse for some of this number crunching -- Villanova played Carleton University of Ottawa over the Labor Day weekend. The Carleton Ravens are swinging through the US themselves, taking on Louisville and Providence as part of a pre-season run up to their own collegiate season. So I was curious to see how the three Big East teams would fare against common competition. In this pre-season mini round robin it seems Louisville fared best, beating the Ravens by 33 points in Louisville. The pace, 68.9, and ORtg, 117.6, were consistent with out of conference games than exhibition games (where the games are fast and the margins are way far apart), but Louisville's offense was definitely in good form.

	Pace	MoV	ORtg	PPWS	eFG	TORate	OR%	FTRate
Louisville	68.9	+33	117.6	1.07	52.4	15.8	42.9	50.0
Villanova	62.3	+15	98.0	1.04	43.3	16.1	22.7	64.4
Providence	71.0	+14	123.3	1.20	54.3	22.9	58.1	50.0

For each team & game, the pace seems to be more consistent with a regular season game than an exhibition game. Providence plays at a higher rate than either Louisville or Villanova, so 71.0 or so is not unusual. The only uncharacteristic pace is Villanova's -- it is too slow. Ottawa sojourners suggested Carleton played very deliberately. But they also observed that the young Wildcats were working hard on the staff's version of the 4-out 1-in motion offense. That the game only had 62 (or so) possessions is most likely due to a combination of those factors. The Providence offense looks as if it was firing on all cylinders Friday. An offensive rating of 123.3 is about where Georgetown was at the end of last season. And with a field goal efficiency of 54.3, the Friars would be hard to beat. Their turnover rate (turnovers per 100 possesions, TORate in the table) is troubling but common when teams play at a higher tempo. Louisville's numbers look pretty good too. The Cardinal's PPWS (1.07) looks a little low when compared to their eFG. It suggests they had a rough night at the line, ie they got fouled but did not convert consistently (their FT conversion rate was 54.8). Villanova's somewhat sluggish offensive numbers may reflect the early timing of the game (10 days of full squad practice in August), the composition of the team (5 true & redshirt freshmen) or the year-over-year problem of consistent offense. The composite of the entire weekend is not as bleak as this one game.

	DRtg	PPWS	eFG	TORate	OR%	FTRate
Louisville	72.0	0.78	33.6	27.9	33.3	30.9
Villanova	73.9	0.94	34.6	27.3	20.0	53.8
Providence	99.6	1.33	63.4	29.0	12.5	68.3

For all three of the Big East teams these look like mid-season form numbers. Very limited shooting opportunities with tight shot defense (except Providence, if the Friars bring that shot defense into the Big East regular season they will get killed). Louisville had nice numbers across the board. For Villanova, the only area of concern might be fouling. The Wildcats are aggressive on offense and defense. Carleton seemed to get to the line a great deal. Providence's offense is definitely ahead of their defense. They maintained a large margin of victory (14 points) largely because of their great offense, but also be cause Carleton had relatively fewer chances to score. Note the 29.0 turnover rate and Carleton's 12.5 OR%. The Friars had 13 steals total, with Brian McKenzie grabbing 3, and 3 others garnering 2 apiece. A Providence fan described transfer Jeff Xavier as "...PC's best on ball defender since Linehan. His pressure really disrupted (Carleton)...". The Friars' board domination carried over to the defensive boards as well. If Carleton rebounded 29.0% of their misses, the Friars pulled in 71%. An astoundingly high percentage of the defensive rebounds.

Some Other Games...
Marquette completed their exhibition run with an 83-55 win over Northern State. Like the other 4 games in their pre-season (4 in Canada over Labor Day Weekend) the pace (83.7) was decidedly characteristic of an exhibition season game. The margin of victory masked a problem or two (and was something of a coming out party for sophomore Lazar Hayward too), mostly in scoring and rebounding...not enough of either. The Golden Eagle's 42.7 eFG was consistent with the last two Canadian games. Marquette's margin of victory over Northern State came compliments of 44 FTAs (and FTRate of 71.0 -- when the conference puts Ed Hightower, Paul Janssen and Todd Williams together watch out; their were, between the two teams, 46 personal fouls called, with 64 free throws) and Northern State's TORate (37.1 -- nearly 4 in 10 possessions were turned over). Marquette had 20 steals, Dwight Burke led with 5 and master thief Jerel McNeal had 4. The scoring landscape was not uniformly bleak however as Lazar Hayward (6-10, 0-1, 5-7, 17) and Wes Matthews (5-7, 0-1, 6-7, 16) had pretty good offensive games.

Syracuse beat St. Rose by 9 in the Carrier Dome. The margin was close in part because the Orange turned the ball over (especially sloppy front court play, as the 6 players in the front court rotation accounted for 17 of the 21 turnovers -- veteran players Harris and Onuaku accounted for 7 between them, while freshman Donte Greene had a team-high 5 TOs...) and poor free throw shooting. Having reached the line 23 times the Orange converted 12 times. Coach Boeheim used a 9 man rotation, none of the 5 starters saw less than 26 minutes. Freshmen Jonny Flynn and Donte Greene started. Greene had 16 points in 33 minutes, while Flynn had 10 points, 9 assists (with 1 turnover) in 29 minutes of play. Senior pg Josh Wright was DNP.

Rutgers beat Rollie Massimino's Northwood team by 11, 68-57. A good shooting effort (eFG -- 56.5) was undermined by a high turnover rate (28.5). The game pace, about 68, was a little surprising given that Rutgers played at about 61 possessions last season, and Rollie Massimino was a notoriously deliberate half-court oriented coach during his days at Villanova (and UNLV and Cleveland St.). Maybe for these two 68 is "exhibition fast". Junior pg Anthony Farmer, along with junior transfer Courtney Nelson, started in the back court. Each played over 20 minutes (Farmer -- 22, Nelson -- 28). Freshmen Mike Coburn and Corey Chandler also logged 20+ minutes apiece. Of local (Philadelphia) interest, HS bballer Earl Pettis played 11 minutes for the Scarlet Knights, scoring 6 points and gathering 5 rebounds. DeSean White, another Philadelphia bballer started for Northwood and scored 15 points and 8 rebounds in 34 minutes. White played a year at Providence and transfered to LaSalle and then Delaware before landing in Northwood.

Oh Canada! Part 2: Team Defense

Villanova's team defense has fallen down a bit over the past two seasons. From a high ranking of #4 (per Ken Pomeroy's possession-based stats) in the 2004-05 season the Wildcat's defensive rating has drifted downward to #18 last season. The culprit (as many fans who watched the games know...) has been field goal defense, principally on the perimeter. Numbers for rebounding (OR% -- opponent's offensive rebounding rate) and turnovers (TORate) have been fair to good, but fouling (FTRate) has been weak -- the 'Cats have been known to foul a good deal, a byproduct of the aggressive style of defensive play. Like perimeter field goal defense, Villanova's defensive free throw rate (free throws per 100 field goal attempts) has regressed over the past 3 seasons. Last year's 42.0 earned the 'Cats a rank of #262 (out of 338 in D1). The overall stats look very good for the defense on this tour:

eFG%	TORate	OR%	FTRate	DRtg	PPWS
36.3	23.3	30.4	41.4	81.1	0.87

Of particular interest is the eFG%, which at 36.3, is extremely low (the Canadians weren't hitting), well below Connecticut's #1 defensive eFG% of 41.9 last season. The FTRate (41.4) appears to be a bit high, possibly reflecting the style of Canadian (international) officiating, but along with an uncharacteristically low DR% of 30.4, something to watch. Individual game breakdowns, given the different levels of competition and team composition, should provide better insight on some of these numbers:

Opponent	eFG%	TORate	OR%	FTRate	DRtg	PPWS
Carleton	34.6	27.3	20.0	53.8	73.9	0.94
Queens	32.5	23.6	26.8	15.0	63.5	0.67
Ottawa	39.4	22.7	33.3	71.2	96.1	1.03
Carleton All-Stars	38.3	20.0	36.6	34.4	88.6	0.83

Keeping all 4 Canadian teams' eFG% in the 30s is a good sign the shot defense might be back. That the Golden Gaels registered the lowest eFG% is not surprising. The percentages given by the two Carleton squads however are especially encouraging. The Wildcats were able to force a turnover rate of about 23.1 last season, so the overall exhibition result (22.8), while statistically insignificant, is not particularly good. This may rise as the rotation is settled. The opponent's OR% of 30.4 was an improvement over last year's 32.1, which was surprising given the larger front line offered by the 'Cats. The poorer showing against the Carleton All-Stars (36.6) however, raises concerns. Losing Sumpter and Sheridan, combined with less than dominating rebounding on this tour suggests this may be an area of concern. Ottawa's surprisingly high FTRate (71.2) is obviously a anomaly, something which might be said about their OR% and eFG% from that game as well. The higher paced game may have developed the characteristics of an AAU type game -- note the DRtg% of 96.1 for example. Not high as a result of a D1 game, but about 15.1% higher than the next nearest game (the Carleton All-Stars) and suggesting an inconsistency in the defensive effort game-to-game (note the Queens game). Is the higher pace responsible for the apparent degraded defense? The overall raw DRtg% of 81.1 may again be consistent with the level of the competition, but is nevertheless encouraging. Hopefully these numbers will serve as predictors for a strong defensive presence next season.

Oh Canada! Part 1: Team Offense

Villanova's 4 game 3 day sojourn to Ottawa afforded fans a taste of the team Coach Wright will take into next season. The extended exhibition tour gave me 2 - 3 more games to look over than I might see during the "regular" exhibition part of the season. While there is little doubt this was exhibition basketball, some of the numbers should encourage Wildcat fans.

Some background about the tour and competition. Villanova faced four opponents over the course of a three day tour. The 'Cats faced Carleton University, the five time CIS champion (the Canadian equivalent of the NCAA) on Saturday evening, September 1, Queens University at noon on Sunday September 2, the University of Ottawa a semifinalist in last year's CIS championship (defeated by Carleton) at 7pm (central time) on Sunday September 2 and a team of ex-Carleton players who have pursued pro careers in Europe and Australia (the Carleton All-Stars) on Monday September 3. The overall offensive (and pace) stats:

Raw
Pace	eFG%	TORate	OR%	FTRate	ORtg	PPWS
68.7	63.8	22.9	31.5	43.2	114.2	1.31

Those are very strong numbers, even for an exhibition series. The eFG% (field goal efficiency) is much higher than last season, suggesting the Wildcats, even against tougher competition, will most likely see a greater shooting accuracy than they have in a few years. The OR% appears to be right around where it has been historically under the Wright regime, while the team got to the line pretty consistently (FTRate), suggesting they showed an appropriate amount of aggression on the ball & backboards. The (raw) Offensive Rating (ORtg) is encouragingly high, even for an exhibition series. The lack of practice/preparation time, even with new players to integrate into the system did not depress the ORtg, which was better than last season (107.7) by about 5% has to be, with all caveats factored (competition, lack of prep, inexperienced players, no starters for one game, etc.) very encouraging. The overall numbers however, do mask a game-to-game variation which, if examined closely, suggests there are still a number of things to resolve. I have put together the pace and offensive and defensive efficiency statistics for each of the four games, and they appear below:

	Raw
Opponent	Pace	eFG%	TORate	OR%	FTRate	ORtg	PPWS
Carleton	62.3	43.3	16.1	22.7	64.4	98.0	1.04
Queens	67.7	54.5	19.2	40.6	41.1	107.8	1.09
Ottawa	74.9	82.1	26.7	33.3	28.6	137.5	1.62
Carleton All-Stars	70.0	73.8	28.6	21.4	42.9	110.0	1.52

The Wildcat's field goal efficiency caught my eye first. The 'Cats converted in the 48-49 range (48.8) last season. Pushing that number above 50 would be very encouraging. But the playing the toughest team first (Carleton) the 'Cats registered a rather disappointing 43.3. The efficiency for Ottawa game, 82.1, was the product of a 9-11 3 point shooting night, complements of Scottie Reynolds (5-5) and Corey Stokes (4-6). Not likely they will hit 81.2% of their 3s every night. But the eFG% for the trailing 3 games (Queens, Ottawa and the All-Stars) showed considerable improvement over the first game (Carleton U.). Maybe the 'Cats are indeed on their way. The eFG% (effective field goal percentage) against the all-pro All-Star squad, well into the mid 70s, was an excellent number considering the competition. Turnovers on the other hand, showed a downward trend. As the pace quickened the 'Cats lost more (and a higher percentage) of their possessions. This may well be due to the new players (more on individual performances in a later post) and therefore naturally correctable with more playing time. The offensive rebounding however is a bit more troubling, and may in some ways represent the dilemma the staff will face this season. Under Coach Wright Villanova has had a number of very good rebounding guards (Lowry and Foye stand out, but Ray, Nardi and Benn contributed on rebounding as well), but this squad's guard contingent (wings included) seemed less inclined to grab missed shots. The OR% versus the two Carleton squads in particular is bothersome. The Ravens are a well coached/schooled program headed up by Dave Smart, an assistant coach for the Canadian National Team. And Villanova's OR% against both of those squads hovered around 20, well below their tour average and well below their OR% from last season (39.1). The OR% from the Queens game is nearly the opposite of the 2 Carleton games, but consider that Ott, Pena and Drummond played significant minutes against the Golden Gaels, while the starting lineup sat for the entire game. That Drum, Ott and company were able to snag 41.1% of the Wildcat's own missed shots should not be a surprise. That it should be only marginally better than last season's ending OR% (and produced against a not very competitive university program) should raise some modest concerns at this point.

The average raw pace for D1 ball last season was about 67.5, while exhibition games tend to be in the 70 or so range. The Carleton game came in a bit below those two paces and while eyewitnesses reported that Carleton initiated the deliberate pace, I was curious to know if the Ravens played that slowly for two other American teams, the University of Illinois (Urbana-Champaign) and the University of Alabama, who alos toured the Capital Region that weekend. The answer is no. The pace for the Illinois game was about 65.2, while the Ravens victory over Alabama took about 68.5 possessions. Clearly Villanova's game was the lowest paced of the three. If, as suggested by fans who were present to watch the game, the Ravens slowed the tempo, it might suggest a deliberate strategy to limit possessions as a means of increasing their chances for a win. Villanova's raw pace last season was 66.5, about 3 possessions lower than the overall (raw) possessions for the Tour.