Sunday, September 5, 2010

Oh Canada! Cincinnati - Carleton Post Game

Looking at the Numbers
Carleton released the official boxscore earlier today. I have chewed on the numbers a bit, and there a few points of interest that might be worth going over here. First the totals by quarters...


The Bearcats started fast Saturday night, perhaps taking heed of Carleton's reputation. Up by four after the first quarter, Cincinnati hit the after burners and ran out to an 11 point lead, 39-28 going into the half-time break. Not content to run out the clock, the Bearcats nearly equaled their first half numbers in the third quarter alone, adding another 12 points to their lead, and racking up a 73-50 bulge going into the last quarter. Carleton pulled it together, and using a mix of fast breaks and penetrate and kick-out passes, managed to win the quarter (only the second of the eight quarters played so far lost by the Bearcats), cut six points off of their deficit. Carleton's closing rush put the final score at 87-70. CIS blogger Mark Wacyk noted in his recap, that Carleton held a lead as late as midway through the second quarter, but that Cincinnati was able to retake the lead with scoring bursts. Mark cited the play of 6'6" third year wing Dan Penner, 6'3" Elliott Thompson, 6'6" Cole Hobin and 6'3" freshman Phil Scrubb as bright spots for the Ravens going into their 2011 CIS campaign. The efficiencies and Oliver's four factors:


66-67 possessions is very consistent with Cincinnati's play last season...but uncharacteristic of an exhibition game, where each team's offense tends to attack the basket and shoot more quickly. Coach Cronin used a mix of ball screens and penetrate and kick-out passes to find and free-up shooters. The Bearcats' offensive rebounding rate was about where I expected it, in the mid 40s. Their defensive rebounding (100-Carleton's offensive rebounding rate), at 57.6%, is uncharacteristically low. Perhaps Carleton Coach Dave Smart had the Ravens set to crash their offensive boards, or having Carleton take 40.4% of their field goal attempts from the three point line created longer-than-anticipated rebounds, and Cincinnati never adjusted. Either scenario may hold, but the Bearcats, who can expect to find three point-focused offenses both in the Big East and in their OOC, will have to learn to recognize and adjust if they hope to maintain board dominance. Rebounding is especially important to Cincinnati, particularly if their offense runs into unproductive stretches. The defensive efficiency (Carleton's offensive efficiency -- 105.3) is troubling as well. The problem can be traced to the Bearcats' lack of defense on the perimeter. Note Carleton's 54.8 eFG -- that number weighs in Carleton's 42.8% conversion rate (9-21) on three point attempts. That is definitely an area for improvement...

Dion Dixon60.022.527.3105.62.1122.2
Darnell Wilks67.515.010.825.00.500.0
Ibrahima Thomas37.514.09.7150.02.56200.0
Yancy Gates47.537.730.650.00.8762.5
Jaquon Parker37.513.714.533.30.670.0
Cashmere Wright55.020.719.866.71.330.0
Larry Davis45.024.932.356.31.130.0
Rashad Bishop55.017.216.570.01.400.0
Sean Kilpatrick47.540.834.433.30.9777.8
Kelvin Gaines12.513.514.5100.01.36100.0
McClain Anthony35.

Hellooo Mr. Dixon...
News that junior wing Dion Dixon had a great game were not exaggerated. While logging 60% of the minutes in the guard rotation Dixon shot 8-9 from the field that included 3-4 from beyond the arc. He posted a game-high 21 points while dishing two assists for teammates. Games like this suggest that Dixon may one of those pieces Coach Cronin is looking for to ease the post Vaughn transition. Of interest is the amount of time Darnell Wilks logged -- 67.5%, the team-high. The senior wing continues to defer to teammates on offense (for better or worse). While the 6-7 forward did a terrific job on the offensive boards his shot was not dropping (1-4) and he faded to a 5th option on offense while he was in the game. Cincinnati's offense came from a triad of Dixon, Gates (no shock there -- 30.6% of the shots) and senior guard Larry Davis (a whopping 32.3% of the shots). Davis and Gates had very efficient nights, but were overshadowed by Dixon's numbers. Good to see three players turning in very effective efforts. Rashad Bishop, Sean Kilpatrick and Jaquon Parker, effective in the McGill game, all stepped back a bit against the Ravens. A look at the assist rates and rebounding...

Dion Dixon20.
Darnell Wilks5.210.64.529.70.00.0
Ibrahima Thomas10.
Yancy Gates0.
Jaquon Parker19.
Cashmere Wright22.26.522.
Larry Davis10.
Rashad Bishop0.
Sean Kilpatrick8.
Kelvin Gaines0.
McClain Anthony0.020.417.

Cashmere Wright, Parker and Dixon did well (but not outstanding) as they set up teammates via assists. That Parker, Wright and Dixon had great defensive rebounding rates confirms the Carleton misses were long.

Cincinnati will play the University of Ottawa Gee-Gees at the gym in Montpetit Hall on uOttawa's campus on Sunday, 2:00pm. The game will be streamed live.

Other Tour Posts
The McGill game recap.
McGill post game analysis.
Guest contributor Mark Wacyk describes The CIS & Carleton
A brief Carleton game recap.

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