Big East Transfers -- A Snapshot in Early June

I know that Villanova had more outbound transfers than usual this year (Malcolm Grant & Andy Ott), but I wondered about the other teams in the Big East. I was a little surprised at some of the names...

Player	Leaving	For
*Marcus Johnson	Connecticut	USC
Curtis Kelly	Connecticut	TBD
Doug Wiggins	Connecticut	Massachusetts
Vernon Macklin	Georgetown	Florida
Jeremiah Rivers	Georgetown	Indiana
Scott Christopherson	Marquette	Iowa State
Cassin Diggs	Pittsburgh	TBD
Dwain Williams	Providence	Oregon State
Larry Davis	Seton Hall	Loyola Marymount
Solomon Bozeman	South Florida	Arkansas-Little Rock
Orane Chin	South Florida	TBD
*Dante Curry	South Florida	Georgia State
Aaron Holmes	South Florida	Santa Fe CC
Amu Saaka	South Florida	Furman
Mike Cavataio	St. John's	Holy Cross
Ricky Torres	St. John's	UMBC
Larry Wright	St. John's	Oakland
Malcolm Grant	Villanova	Miami
*Andrew Ott	Villanova	Penn State
*Jacob Green	West Virginia	Fordham

* -- transferred during the season, will be eligible at their destination school at the end of the fall 2008 semester.

Connecticut has consistently turned over players over the past decade. It appears to be the price of running an elite national program (a trait shared with Louisville it seems). For the Huskies, the exits are normally traced to discipline or talent/development...and indeed that is the case for Doug Wiggins (discipline) and Curt Kelly (development). Marcus Johnson is an anomaly. Talented enough to start consistently last season, Johnson had moved to the bench, but continued to see significant minutes in the rotation when he suddenly left the program just after the season started. Three weeks earlier and he would have had another full season to offer another college (USC in this case). Wiggins has moved over to Massachusetts while Kelly is still looking for a place to land. Rumors surfaced this week in numerous Connecticut newspapers that rising junior forward Stanley Robinson is also out at Storrs. Phil Chardis of the Journal Inquirer posted a summary piece that caught the relevant quotes from the New London Day and other papers who published earlier in the week. Robinson's grades are rumored to be a big part of the rising junior's problems.
Superficial analysis calls Georgetown's loss of Vernon Macklin a swap -- Macklin (outbound to Florida) for Vaughn (inbound from Florida State). But Macklin has logged two seasons with Thompson's offensive system, and his transfer, coupled with the loss of senior Roy Hibbert, means Georgetown goes into next season with the youngest frontcourt contingent they have had in years. True the Hoyas will bring in Jason Clark, Henry Sims and (best of all) Greg Monroe (in addition to FSU transfer Julian Vaughn -- see below), but all three have to learn the system. Macklin would have come in very handy next season.
While a number of the names transferring out at South Florida are surprising -- Solomon Bozeman (started double digit games as a freshman, played a solid backup role last season) and Amu Saaka (an occasional starter at 2-3 the past 2 seasons who averaged 12.5 minutes per game in Big East play) for example, a reminder that Stan Heath took over the reins last season provides some explanation as to why five scholarship players have chosen to leave since last December. Factor in the emergence of Dominique Jones, the Bulls' freshman sensation, and maybe it's not so unusual after all. I do wonder about Orane Chin however. Chin, also a freshman, started along side Jones for much of last season (16 starts, 5 in Big East games). But he nearly disappeared by the end of the season, logging no minutes in the West Virginia game and playng 5 minutes or less in each of the Bull's last five games.
For St. John's it seems, depressingly enough, to be business as usual. While swing guard Ricky Torres left the program officially "at some point" in the fall semester, in reality he had checked out long ago, maybe never connecting in the first place. Freshman Mike Cavataio, a minor member in the Johnnies' massive eight man entering class decided (wisely?) to go elsewhere for PT. The Crusaders will most likely benefit when he is eligible in 2009-10. A succession of large incoming classes can account for "lost boys" like Torres and Cavataio falling through the cracks, but what accounts for Larry Wright (and before him Avery Patterson and Qa'rraan Calhoun)? A player with promise who, if he does not develop into a an All-Big East-level player, will certainly contribute significantly over the course of his career. Wright left after 2 seasons. Roberts meanwhile, is bringing in another large class.

There are a few individual players on the list that cuaght my eye also...
1. Dwain Williams, Providence filled in for pg Sharaud Curry when Curry was suspended for several games in the 2007-08 season. Williams, along with fellow freshman Brian McKenzie appeared to have solified roles as contributors for the Friars. When Curry suffered his season-ending injury last December however, Williams did not step in and pick up the job as anticipated. In another twist Williams, originally accepted a scholarship to attend Long Beach State near his home in California. He was subsequently recruited by Oregon State, asked for an received his release from Long Beach State, and will now attend Oregon State. Craig Robinson, the new head coach at Oregon State was Brown University's head coach last season, and no doubt had plenty of opportunities, including the two games Providence and Brown played during Robinson's and William's two year run at their respective schools. Williams logged 40 minutes between the two games, and scored 6 points on 2-8, 0-4, 2-2 shooting. Maybe they will swap Tim Welsh stories during practices.
2. Scott Christopherson, Marquette -- there was an abiding sense in the Marquette Nation that Christopherson could be a difference makeer, but the backcourt logistics might work against him this season. The preseason notion was that he might redshirt and step in next season (2008-09), especially if any of the Three Amigos moved into the NBA draft this off season. Christopherson played 87 minutes in eighteen games, about 9% of the available minutes, certainly far less than he needed to develop. Whether motivated by Tom Crean's decision to go to Indiana, or by the reality that, with only 3 years of eligibility remaining he would again try to squeeze minutes between the returning Amigos, Lazar Hayward, David Cubillian, Patrick Hazel and (entering freshmen...) Christopherson decided to transfer.

Below is a quick list of the incoming transfers as of mid June...

Player	Leaving	For
Taylor King	Duke	Villanova
Jonathan Mitchell	Florida	Rutgers
Julian Vaughn	Florida State	Georgetown
Ben Hansbrough	Mississippi State	Notre Dame
Scott Martin	Purdue	Notre Dame

Note the list includes only those players who have transferred in from other D1 programs. All of the individuals listed will sit for the 2008-09 season and become eligible (if all goes well) for the 2009-10 season.

Taylor King took an official visit to Villanova when he was a senior at Mater Dei HS (California). Villanova was one of several schools in his "final list" before he committed to Duke. Jon Mitchell spent his freshman year with Billy Donovan at Florida, but the Mount Vernon HS graduate will rejoin former teammate Mike Coburn when he enrolls at Rutgers in the fall. Gus Gilcrest, late of Virginia Tech via Maryland, is looking at West Virginia and South Florida. He likes Huggins system, and knows Bulls guard Chris Howard.

Coaching Carousal: And Then There Was One

Brown Gets an Agel...
Sorry, the spelling was just too close to resist...according to an ESPN news release, Brown University hired Assistant Coach Jesse Agel to replace departed (to Oregon) HC Craig Robinson. Agel has been an assistant at Brown for the past two seasons (Robinson's tenure at Brown) and for the preceding 17 years, at Vermont. Agel is clearly familiar with New England basketball.

Last Man Standing...
Andrew Skwara over at Rivals reports that Alcorn State filled their coaching vacancy (Larry Smith to replace fired Sam West) on May 8^th, a vacancy the Braves managed to fill (with one of their legendary players no less) in just over a month (36 days). With Alcorn State and Brown "off the board", fellow SWAC member, the Delta Devils of Mississippi Valley State, stand alone as the only D1 program without a head coach. Prospects (according to Skwara) include several career assistant coaches, Larry Reynolds, Harvey Wardell and Sean Woods.

About the Assistant Coaches...
Brett Gunning, a long time assistant to Coach Jay Wright, will most likely be with the Wildcats another season. Gunning was linked with the HC opening at Marist and again with an assistant job with the Carolina Bobcats before he apparently decided to stay on the Mainline another season. Pittsburgh's Orlando Antigua left the Panthers for a spot on John Calipari's staff at Memphis.

By the Numbers...
There were a total of 42 vacancies this season (roughly mid October 2007 to June 2008), down from 60 vacancies in 2007-08. Those 42 openings represent a 12.3% vacancy rate, also down from about 17.8% last season. 64.3% (27) of the vacancies were initiated by the administration, 31% (13) were fired outright, 9.5% (4) had contracts not extended and 23.8% (10) resigned after evaluation meetings with their respective ADs. For those who initiated their own departures, most (10 or 23.8% of the total) resigned to take another head coaching position. Four (9.5%) retired while one (Bobby Jones of St. Francis) abruptly resigned. The division was even clearer this season than last. Virtually all employer-initiated separations occured before the Championship Game was played (April 7 this year). Virtually all employee-initiated resignations (most to take another head coaching job) occured after Selection Sunday. Note that Bobby Knight's late season retirement was not the only one to occur during the season...Detroit's Perry Watson took a medical leave on January 7 that became a retroactive retirement at season's end. Detroit's vacancy was also the longest of the season, 95 days.

Offensive and Defensive Ratings -- An Arial View

I wondered how the sixteen Big East teams compared with each other with respect to efficiencies -- offense and defense -- so I pulled down the schedule data from Ken Pomeroy's Basketball Prospectus Web Site to see if there was anything interesting to plot. I looked at just the conference games. The conference-wide offensive and defensive effiencies averaged out to 102.7 -- which I frankly thought might be high. That both offense and defense averaged to the same number however was "proof" that it was correct. Taking the "average" as 0,0 I subtracted the average from each team's offensive efficiency and then subtracted each team's defensive efficiency from the conference-wide average. That gave me points, relative to the conference-wide average, to plot for each team. Using this technique I was able to plot those teams with "above average" defenses above the X-Axis, and those with "above average" offenses to the right of the Y-Axis. Those teams with "above average" offensive and defensive efficiencies were grouped into the upper right hand quandrant.

The chart (above) confirms "knowns" rather than reveal "unknowns". Five of the teams grouped in the upper right quandrant, Georgetown, Louisville, Connecticut, Marquette and West Virginia, finished the regular season with five of the six best records in the conference. The chart confirms that Georgetown and Louisville, by consensus the two strongest teams in the conference, were, as confirmed by the scatter chart, clearly separated from the rest of the conference. Good things had been predicted for Syracuse (the sixth team in that quadrant), though the Orange finished the regular season riding the bubble, and after losing their first round game in the Big East Tournament to Villanova, finished the season with an NIT run. Having Notre Dame positioned below the 0,0 point on the Y-Axis might seem to undermine the chart's credibility, but consider that the "below average" efficiency identified here is defense. Notre Dame in the Mike Brey era is noted for both it's potent offense (best in the conference in 2006-07, but nearly as notorious for it's lack of defense. This season shows yet again that Notre Dame's offense is strong enough to mask the team's suspect defense. While strong offense (coupled with "just enough" defense) may be good enough to get by in the Big East, it may also explain the series of early NCAA exits the Irish have taken in the past 2 post seasons.

The mirror opposite quandrant (lower left) also seems to confirm what a consensus suspected. Three of the four teams in this quadrant finished among the bottom five. Rutgers and South Florida did not make the conference tournament. Providence barely had time to unpack before being sent home with a first round loss.

The data used for each team is below. For each team I have included a link to that team's "Game Plan" page over at Ken Pomeroy's web site. Notice that Villanova's ratings, offensive and defensive were nearly identical.

Team	ORtg	DRtg	X Axis	Y Axis
Cincinnati (8-10)	98.1	103.1	-4.6	-0.4
Connecticut (13-5)	110.8	102.0	8.1	0.7
DePaul (6-12)	104.6	111.3	1.9	-8.6
Georgetown (15-3)	104.5	93.1	1.8	9.6
Louisville (14-4)	105.9	91.4	3.2	11.3
Marquette (11-7)	106.1	98.8	3.4	4.0
Notre Dame (14-4)	110.1	103.6	7.4	-0.9
Pittsburgh (10-8)	109.2	104.7	6.5	-1.9
Providence (6-12)	102.7	108.6	-0.1	-5.9
Rutgers (3-15)	88.4	105.4	-14.3	-2.7
Seton Hall (7-11)	103.3	109.0	0.6	-6.3
St. John's (5-13)	90.1	102.2	-12.6	0.5
South Florida (3-15)	98.4	108.6	-4.3	-5.9
Syracuse (9-9)	103.7	102.0	0.9	0.7
Villanova (9-9)	100.3	100.2	-2.4	2.5
West Virginia (11-7)	107.4	99.6	4.7	3.1
Averages	102.7	102.7
Standard Deviations	6.45	5.46

A few observations...

1. While Villanova's defense was the focus of a good deal of criticism within the Nova Nation, the table demonstrates it was the team's stronger feature during the Big East season. A few defensive efforts like the games at Georgetown and St. John's and the homestands against Connecticut and Pittsburgh come to mind. The Wildcat's "nearly even" ratings (100.3 vs 100.2) provide a hint of the team's 0.500 record in conference play. The defense, while better than average for the conference was not on par with the performance of recent teams.
2. For the Big East this season, offense seemed to matter most. Note that St. John's, while playing slightly above average on defense, was significantly off on offfense. And their record (5-13) reflected that very big step back from last season.
3. Cincinnati, Syracuse and Villanova were the three teams whose points fell closest to the intersection of the X and Y Axis. Those three also finished with records within +/- 1 of 0.500.

Goaltending Redefined?

The Rules Subcommittee recommendations this season are a bit less game-changing than some of the prior years recommendations. They will recommend adopting a rule that requires the home team to wear the lighter colored uni...unless both home and visitor agree to switch. The other recommendation, according to the AP article, via ESPN is to redefine goaltending to include touching the ball while completely above the rim, after it strikes the backboard, irrespective of whether the ball is in upward or downward flight. The existing goaltending rule prohibits touching the ball (completely above the rim, after striking the backboard) as it was in downward flight. The Subcommittee has decided to continue to study the effect of widening the free throw lane (like the international game), which suggests this change will have to wait for a bolder subcommittee, one that will either move the proposal forward or kill it altogether.

Peformance vs Expectation

What a roller coaster ride! There were highs and lows, "The Slump" followed by a strong resurgence, roaring comebacks against LSU, Syracuse (second game) and Clemson (NCAA round 1) and the referee robberies (NC State and the first Georgetown game). Just about everything this fan could handle. And about on par for a freshmen-oriented team? I decided to take a leaf from The Hoya Prospectus Blog and plot the scoring differential against Pomeroy's projected scoring differential to see how the team actually performed. I looked at the last 24 games of the season -- the most difficult portion of the schedule which included the entire Big East regular season, the last Big 5 game (versus St. Joseph's), the Big East Tournament and the 3 rounds of the Big East Tournament. After a 10-1 start (and about 9 weeks ranked in the Top 25), Villanova went 12-12 over those last 24 games. The scatter diagram below plots the performance versus projected outcome difference chronologically, from the first game in the series (the away game at DePaul which opened Villanova's Big East regular season) to the last game in the series (the Sweet Sixteen game versus Kansas in Detroit Michigan). Wins and losses, as shown in the legend are noted by black rectangles and red circles respectively. The five game losing streak ("The Slump") is highlighted in the red shaded rectangle. Games which fall on (or near) the X-Axis are those games which Pomeroy correctly predicted the scoring difference. The Seton Hall game for example, in which Pomeroy predicted a 2 point Villanova victory lies squarely on the X-Axis because the scoring difference was indeed 2 points (Villanova won 72-70 on a last minute Dwayne Anderson field goal). Proximity to the X-Axis indicates the closeness of the projection to the actual score. Note that I have (space limitations & an attempt limit the clutter within the plot area) only selectively labeled the games. The complete list of games plotted is given (in chronological order) below.

Most of the scatter diagram agrees with my (and I am sure many Nova fans) impressions of the season. The team was wildly inconsistent in the games before "The Slump" -- note how the scoring difference swings through the X-Axis on nearly every one of the 5 preceding games, first below and then above on the very next game -- DePaul, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, then DePaul (second game). Syracuse (on the road no less...) was probably their best game to that point in the season. Followed immediately by what was clearly their worst game of the season (and arguably Villanova's worst game in 4 seasons) -- the road game at Rutgers. Ironically a similar swing occurred after the Wildcats eliminated the Orange from the Big East Tournament. The very next game was a significant downward swing (against the Hoyas). According to the scatter chart the four games that most exceeded expectations were the two Syracuse games, the road game versus St. John's and the home game, against the Mountaineers, which followed immediately on the St. John's game. While the Nova Nation may have been disappointed in the outcome of the first Georgetown game, the scatter chart suggests the team played a super game. The four "Most Underachieving" games included (chronologically) the first DePaul game, Rutgers (on the road), St. Joseph's (on the road) and the second (BET) Georgetown game. The data:

	Score
Opponent	Difference
at DePaul	-18
vs Pittsburgh	7
at Cincinnati	-8
vs DePaul (2)	2
at Syracuse	19
at Rutgers	-22
vs Notre Dame	-1
at Pittsburgh (2)	-1
vs Syracuse (2)	-9
at St. Joseph's (PA)	-18
vs Seton Hall	0
at Georgetown	15
at St. John's	19
vs West Virginia	28
vs Connecticut	5
vs Marquette	-5
at Louisville	-1
vs South Florida	5
at Providence	11
vs Syracuse (BET)	17
vs Georgetown (BET)	-11
vs Clemson (NCAA)	13
vs Siena (NCAA)	5
vs Kansas (NCAA)	2

A few caveat emptors, and other thoughts...
1. Measuring performance against the expectation, as projected by the Pomeroy system, may be a bit misleading. The expectation that Pomeroy's system can predict the winner is a central assumption. But it may not, even accounting for the "usual" caveats (player injuries/suspensions, fatigue from travel, playing in unfamiliar venues, etc.), the system is still not 100% accurate at predicting winners/margins of victories, etc. I have not seen data lately on the accuracy of the possession-based ratings that Pomeroy implemented 2 seasons ago. His system bases his projections on a comparison of those ratings (adjusted for pace and has calculated the degree of confidence on Bill Jame's Pythagorean Winning Percentage formula).
2. The trendline, by the way, had a positive slope, suggesting the team improved, relative to expectations, as they played through this part of the season. The (linear) trendline starts at -3 (approximately) on the Y-Axis for the first DePaul game, and finishes at +8 (approximately) on the Y-Axis for the Kansas game, suggesting a significant improvement through the period.
3. The staff moved Dwayne Anderson into the starting lineup in the Seton Hall game, the only game in this series in which the team "played to expectations" (as a win, it is symbolized with a square that sits directly upon the x-axis). The team went 9-5 from that point to the end of the season, but more interestingly, went 10-3-1 with respect to performance versus expectations from that same point.
4. Anderson's numbers before he started versus as a starter are quite interesting. I have reproduced those which contrast greatly below. Note that as his time doubled, his points scored nearly tripled. While Dwayne's PPWS rose very slightly, this nevertheless came with a much higher volume of shooting. His eFG% actually declined from an excellent .590 down to a very good .571, the decline in his 2 point shooting offset by greater accuracy in his 3 point shooting and free throw shooting. While Average Rebounds is an admittedly crude metric here, the assist-to-turnover ratio really caught my eye. He was functioning within the flow of the offense, and distributing the ball very well for a frontcourt player.

Phase	Min.	Pts.	PPWS	eFG%	Rebs	Ast:TO
Stony Brook - St. Joseph's (Before)	13.2	3.6	1.15	59.0	2.8	0.42:1
Seton Hall - Kansas (During)	29.9	9.8	1.18	57.1	7.0	1.22:1

5. Corey Stokes also had a run at the end of the year similar to Anderson's. He seemed to struggle through much of the season looking for his place on the team (and in the offense), but appears to have found it with a vengence as the season moved past the St. John's game. His stats, offered below, show that as the Wildcats approached that point in the season when freshmen are supposed to suffer the effects of the longer season, Stokes was getting started.

Phase	Min.	Pts.	PPWS	eFG%	Rebs	Ast:TO
Stony Brook - Georgetown (Before)	15.2	3.5	0.79	36.8	2.2	0.72:1
St. John's - Kansas (During)	24.3	12.1	1.20	55.1	2.8	0.43:1

Post Game: Kansas -- Last Call

The ever-reliable Nova News Blog, written by Tim, is again "first to press" with his game recap. Tim kept a running diary of the game, and when it was over, edited and molded it into a recap, "Kansas Ends Nova's Season". The Villanova Viewpoint Blog weighs in with combined post game and season retrospective. Catch it at "Kansas 72, Villanova 57". The I Bleed Blue and White Blog also posted during the game...not so much a an online diary but an emotional response to early developments, "We Don't Deserve It". No one over there has posted in today...should we send someone over to check on Jamie, Mark and Chris? The Let's Go Nova Blog has not posted either, but I am sure both I Bleed Blue and White and Let's Go Nova will be up with recaps shortly. The official Athletic Department site posted an AP story about the game, "Villanova's Tournament Runs Ends..." to go with the official box score -- which, I might add, was not posted until the middle of Saturday afternoon, slower than normal. And of course the Philadelphia press has published stories about the loss. You can check them out over at philly.com -- sports. The breakdown by halves...

Opponent	Kansas
	1st	2nd	Total
Pace	33.9	32.2	66.0
	Offense				Defense
	1st	2nd	Total		1st	2nd	Total
Rating	65.1	106.9	85.6		120.8	98.3	109.9
eFG%	30.0	46.6	38.1		72.2	47.2	62.2
TORate	29.6	12.2	21.0		26.5	28.5	27.5
OR%	41.7	29.4	36.6		33.3	30.8	31.8
FTA/FGA	26.7	34.5	30.5		7.4	100.0	44.4
FTM/FGA	13.3	27.5	20.3		7.4	77.8	35.6
ARate	37.5	15.4	23.8		68.8	62.5	66.7
Blk%	6.7	10.3	8.5		7.4	0.0	4.4
Stl%	17.8	6.1	12.0		14.7	15.8	15.3

I had to go back to the LSU game to find a half where the offense was as inefficient as Villanova's 65.1 first half ORtg versus Kansas. The Jayhawks however, had a far more efficient (and prolific) first half than the Tigers (120.8 vs 100.7). LSU obliged the Wildcat's second half surge (116.5) with a collapse of their own (83.9). The Jayhawks did cool off (to 98.3), but the Wildcat's defense would have had to take another 15-20 points off of their offense (where is John Brady when you need him?) to make this game competitive. The first-to-second-half progression (for both offense and defense...) is a pattern fans have seen more than a few this season. The team PPWS, 0.84, was the worst since the first Georgetown game (0.76). The Georgetown game was less obvious because Villanova's defense was a bit more effective against the Hoyas. Another measure of field goal efficiency I have used, eFG% was 38.1, also one of the lowest posted this season. Villanova has played 6 games this season where they have had an eFG% below 40.0. They are 2-4 in those games (if you guessed LSU as one of Nova's wins, you are correct; the first Pittsburgh game was the other). The lowest eFG% posted by this Wildcat squad was 27.2 -- in the first Georgetown game.

The defensive rating (DRtg%) posted against KU was fourth worst (in efficiency) to those posted by (in order...) the Hawks of St. Joseph's (136.3), the Scarlet Knights (127.3) and the Blue Demon's game (122.3). Of course the 'Cats were 0-3 in those games, the deficit was just too large to close. And so it was with the Jayhawks.

Odds and Ends...
1. While Shane Clark and Dante Cunningham put up very similar numbers -- 10 points and 7 rebounds, their efficiencies were very different. Shane notched a PPWS of 1.00 and an eFG of 50.0, while Dante's offensive numbers were 0.92 and 37.5 (PPWS & eFG). Nod to Shane as these were the kinds of efficiencies he was posting earlier in the season. He has been on the Mainline now since 2005-06, but has not had a full, healthy season yet.
2. Dwayne Anderson and Corey Stokes, the more consistent second options on offense lately were a bit less effective last night. Dwayne's PPWS was a pedestrian 0.84 while Corey S. stood a bit better with a 1.01 (higher than the team average last night, but lower than the season long team PPWS -- 1.07). Dwayne put up eFG numbers slightly better than Clemson (one of his worst outings since becoming a starter), but at 44.4, it was off his season long pace of 58.5 (a very good eFG by the way, borderline Top 100 level). Stokes did a bit better than Anderson, posting 50.0. But Corey S. played only 55.0% of the available minutes and took only 15.4% of the available shots. Stokes was not a first or second option last night.
3. Last night's assist rate, 23.8, was the worst since Rutgers (22.7). The extremely tight defense put on the guards (reflected in Scottie's numbers...among his lowest this season) no doubt cut off passing lanes. During the slump the team had a tendency to divolve into 3-4 individuals attempting one-on-one breakdowns. That appeared to happen a few times last night as well. While the team had an assist rate of 36.4 versus Clemson last week, an assist rate below 40.0 tends to be more associated with losses (Cincinnati -- 34.6; Rutgers -- 22.7; St. Joseph's -- 33.3) than wins...
4. The 'Cats got most of their points from 2 point FGMs, about 63.2%, far higher than any other tournament (BET or NCAA) game. Villanova averaged about 29.6% of their points from 3s, and another 27% from the free throw line. Last night those numbers were 15.8 and 21.1 respectively.

Referee Notes...
The crew was manned by Patrick Evans, Doug Shows and Ted Valentine. Contrary to some pregame speculation (by Jayhawk fans...), Ed Hightower was not in the building (or at least not on the court...). The game was, especially for a neutral court game, one of the least whistled games in memory. This crew called a total of 35 fouls and sent both teams to the line for a total of 38 free throw attempts. Both are well on the "lite" side for Villanova games this season. The Wildcat's FTAs, 18, fell below the standard deviation for FTAs on neutral courts. This was the first Villanova game for Evans and Valentine, going back to the 2004-05 season anyway. Doug Shows refereed one other Nova game this season -- the LSU game.

Playing With the House's Money...

There is a near unanimous opinion outside of the Nova Nation that this game is a slam dunk (literally?) for the Kansas Jayhawks. And why not? According to Pomeroy (on Villanova's Schedule Page...) the Wildcats and Jayhawks will play for about 71 possessions and that KU will win by 16 (81-65). Pomeroy gives the 'Cats about a 7% probability for an upset. Nasty. If you are looking for a preview (it's pretty late you better get going), then you might want to head over to the Villanova Viewpoint Blog where the blogger has a preview, "Sweet 16 Kansas" available. One of the better "Keys to a Win" posts I have read this week comes from the DRE Hoops Blog -- head over to catch "Villanova - Kansas Preview" if you have time (there is hope Toto!). And the bloggers over at Let's Go Nova have, in addition to a traditional "Keys to Victory"-type preview, also have a running dialog with a Kansas fan in the "Questions from a Kansas Fan" posting.

Best of luck to the Wildcats!