Wednesday, November 19, 2008

Preview -- Niagara

The Wildcats welcome former player Bilal Benn back to the Mainline as Bilal leads the Purple Eagles of Niagara University into Philadelphia to play in The Philly Hoops Classic. Benn is one of several Purple Eagle players with ties to either Philadelphia or the Big East. Teammates Ty Lewis and Kashief Edwards both hail from metro Philadelphia. Lewis tore up the high school circuit as the pg for the Levitown's Truman HS. Rob Garrison of Niagara Falls, NY played two seasons for the Huskies of Conneticut University. This game is the first of two preliminary round games Villanova will play (both at the Pavilion) for The Philly Hoops Classic. The last two rounds of The Philly Hoops Classic will be played at the Palestra.

Coach Joe Mihalich brings Niagara to Philadelphia to renew a series first played back in 1923, and last played in 1976. The annual meetings during the late 1960's and early 1970's were particularly memorable to Nova alums of that era as the games were close and well fought (but largely won by the Wildcats). Villanova leads the series 19-10, though this game will hopefully be revenge for the last game in the series, a 62-51 loss at Niagara back in January of 1976...

What Others Say...
...The Blue Ribbon Yearbook gives the backcourt a B+, the frontcourt a B and the bench/depth a B. The March Madness All Season Blog listed Niagara as one of three contenders (the rank behind the favorite -- Siena) with these comments...
"...needs to replace Charron Fisher, who was second in the country in scoring and also averaged 10 rebounds per game. However, the Purple Eagles have the pieces to make run. Tyrone Lewis is an all-conference guard who can fill it up, while Anthony Nelson also returns as a starter. Transfers Rob Garrison (Connecticut) and Bilal Benn (Villanova) will make immediate impacts. Benson Egemonye is the leader up front..."
-- 10/24/08 Jeff MAAC Preview
Why Everyone Believes...
...Blue Ribbon projects Niagara to finish #4 in the MAAC, a conference of private universities (many Roman Catholic) located throughout Connecticu, New York State and New Jersey. The 2008 MAAC champion Siena, beat Vanderbilt in the first round of the NCAAs last spring, before losing to Villanova in the second round.

So Far...
Niagara (MAAC, 1-0, RPI #1!) comes to the Pavilion off of a 79-62 home opening win over Towson (CAA, 1-1, #25 RPI), a Villanova opponent-to-be in the Philly Hoops Classic. The 'Cats and Purple Eagles share several common opponents this year (Towson, USF...), but Nova won't see them until later. This will be a good benchmark game for both squads. The 'Cats enter this game sporting a ?? record - their most recent effort against Fordham on Monday producing a ?? point decision in the ??'s favor.

Niagara By the Numbers...
Over the past 5 years Niagara's RPI has widely ranged from a high of #95 (2007) to a low of #202 (2006), staying largely in the low 100s. Niagara played at a higher than average pace last season (71.6 possessions, adjusted, via Ken Pomeroy's 2008 Niagara Scout Page which ranks the Purple Eagles #26 out of approx. 341 - the year-end average D1 pace was 66.8). Niagara's field goal efficiency (eFG) is an excellent 60.4 (#15) while their defense for shots is a bit suspect (50.7). This season we only have the Towson game to consider. The numbers...

Niagara/Towson Four Factors
 FTAFTM
Niagara on...eFG%
TO%OR%FGAFTA
Defense40.833.842.331.721.7
Offense41.320.948.335.016.3

Both teams had problems hitting their shots (see eFG%), but Niagara was able to compensate by rebounding their misses more efficiently, and on defense by forcing Towson turnovers. Not shown (but calculated...) Niagara stole 22.7% of Towson's possessions -- that suggests some very aggressive defense, largely complements of Lewis, Garrison and Benns. Lewis also blocked 8 shots...back court beware, this guy is very active on defense.

Frontcourt vs frontcourt...
The Purple Eagles return an experienced senior center in Benson Egemonye (6-10, 230lbs) and two forwards, Demetrius Williamson (6-6, 195lbs) and Kamau Gordon (6-7, 260lbs) who played reserve roles last season. The offense was generated by the back court, and (like Villanova's front courts of 2004-2007...) none of those three received more than "role-player" type possessons (<17% or so) nor were more than 4th/5th options for scoring (shot% <15.0%). These guys were recruited for their rebounding (Egemonye is very good on the offensive boards) and shot blocking (Pomeroy ranks both Egemonye and Williamson among his top 500 for 2008). Given the plethora of guards Coach Mihalich has to rely on, Egemonye may find himself on the floor with four other Eagles who are at least ½ a foot shorter than he. Add to the returning cohort redshirted Philadelphia native Kashief Edwards (6-6, 195lbs), Eric Williams (6-8, 225lbs) and Kuuk Kortekaas (6-11, 200lbs) a native of the Netherlands. Paul Kowalski, a 6-6 175lbs freshman is also listed on the roster. Egemonye was a starter against Towson, logging 22 minutes. Villanova transfer Bilal Benn (6-5, 205lbs) also started the Towson game, listed as a forward (Nova Nation fans may remember him better as a combo guard).

The Wildcats will counter with seniors Dante Cunningham and Shane Clark, both of whom have logged multiple starts over the past three seasons. Junior Casiem Drummond will most likely be available off the bench. Cunningham and sophomore Antonio Pena have started both games for the Wildcats this season, and have put on an offensive display unlike any Villanova fans have witnessed in nearly ten years. Cunningham has scored 44 points in the past two games, pulling in 17 rebounds (9 offensive boards...), while Pena has shot 75.0% from the field through 2 games, scoring 22 points and grabbing 11 boards. Though Clark had arthroscopic surgery less than 2 weeks ago, he suited and played 16 minutes on Monday night. Expect Cunningham and Pena to start the game with Clark and Drummond seeing 15 or so minutes apiece. The staff has also used reserves senior Frank Tchuisi and junior walk-on Russell Wooten

Backcourt vs backcourt...
Coach Joe Mihalich found two good replacements for the graduated Charon Fisher, one of the Purple Eagles instant offense guys from last season when he brought in juniors transfers Bilal Benn (6-5, 205lbs) and Rob Garrison (6-2, 185lbs) last season. Both players logged their first two seasons of collegiate bball at Big East schools (Garrison -- Connecticut & Benn -- Villanova). They join sophomore point guard Anthony Nelson (6-1, 175lbs) and junior combo guard Tyrone Lewis (5-11, 180lbs) for form a MAAC version of a Four Guard Offense. Lewis took MAAC Player of the Week honors for his 20 point, 6 assist (8 block!) performance against Towson. Benn scored 6 points and grabbed 11 boards and blocked 2 shots, to complement Garrison's 14 point, 7 assist performance against Towson. Between them those four guards played about 75% of the available minutes, dishing 19 assists against 14 turnovers, while supplying 53 of Niagara's 79 points.

Villanova will counter with a few guards of their own. Scottie Reynolds will most likely man the point, with the two Coreys (Fisher and Stokes) playing off guard roles. The staff appears to have hopes that Fisher and Reynolds will work the ball in tandem, providing two simultaneous scoring/passing threats when the ball crosses center court. Corey Stokes has demonstrated amazing range on his shot. Anything he releases from inside the center court line has a chance to go in. Relief/reserves come in the form of junior Reggie Redding, a frequent starter last season who has seen court time since his freshman year. Walk-on Jason Colenda has appeared in both 2008-09 games, and will most likely log a few minutes versus the Purple Eagles...if the staff believes the game is well in hand.

Final Thoughts...
Niagara offers one of the better back courts that Villanova will see until Big East play. Bilal Benn or Ty Lewis will most likely take up residence inside of Scottie Reynold's jersey and give Villanova's most prolific scorer fits all night. Those who saw the Te-Tone combination work against Fordham (and Albany) know how Nova will counter. In truth I expect Villanova to struggle while they try to generate offense from their back court...until they figure out how to consistently get the ball into the paint (Dante and Antonio) or out to the wing (Corey S.). Niagara will counter with Ty Lewis, Philadelphia's favorite son who, along with fellow Philadelphian Benn, will be very motivated to put on a good exhibition. Ty Lewis and Rob Garrison between them took 2/3's of the Purple Eagles' 3FGAs, hitting at a very modest 25% rate. Those two are inclined to shoot, so the question is whether the 'Cats can force misses. If Nova's perimeter defense is leaky, the game could be close (and the outcome shocking?...not likely, but with the 3 point shot you just can't tell...).

Villanova's front court should dominate Egemonye and Benn (if, ala Randy Foye, he again plays the #4). And as good as Lewis, Garrison and Nelson were against Towson, Villanova's back court and wing should be able to handle Niagara's offense, and if patient, get some shots of their own. The Purple Eagles will give Villanova a better game than either Albany or Fordham (that team with Will Harris would be very dangerous...), but Tchuisi, Colenda and Wooten will most likely see some court time late in the second half.

Roster Notes...
Villanova -- Casiem Drummond's MRI was negative. He should be available for the game.
Shane Clark played 16 minutes vs Fordham. He should be available Wednesday.
Dwayne Anderson has a stress fracture & will not be available Wednesday.

Niagara -- No injury reports. Their entire roster should be available.

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