The Wildcats and Rams renew a series that dates back to 1921, Villanova's first season of NCAA play. The 'Cats lost that first game (23-31), but won the last meeting in 2004 (68-47), and put a 4 game winning streak on the line when the series renews Monday night. The Wildcats leads the series narrowly 11-8, and will look to extend that winning streak. The A10 conference counts three of the Big 5 contingent as members, making this game the first of four (possibly five...) meetings between Villanova and A10 conference members this season...
What Others Say...
...Blue Ribbon gives the backcourt a B, the frontcourt a C and the bench/depth a C. Blue Ribbon predicts Fordham will finish #14 (out of 14) in the A10 conference this season. The College Chalktalk Blog also projects a #14 finish for the Rams in their very detailed Fordham Team Preview. After a promising game or two to start last February, the senior-led squad unexpectedly fizzled. As for this season, College Chalktalk Blog preview wasted few words, "...Simply put, an untested group...Beginning with the Ram trio that lines up front, it will be a learning experience...".
Why Everyone Believes...
...Jio Fontan and the newcomers. The Daily News 11/13 season preview identified Fontan as "...the leader of the No. 1-rated high school basketball team in the country (St. Anthony's of Jersey City, NJ)..." who will help bring an attitude change to the Rose Hill campus. Fontan comes with a mix of help for the back court and the front court. Freshmen guards Trey Blue and St. Anthony's teammate Alberto Estwick come from championship HS programs. Freshmen forwards Lamar Thomas and Khiry Gordon will couple with transfer (from West Virginia) Jacob Green to plug gaps left by the departed Marcus Stout and Bryant Dunston. And Coach Dereck Whittenburg (of the 1983 NC State champions) plans to install the same running offense he implemented, with good results, during his tenure at Wagner College.
So Far...
Fordham (A10, 12-17, RPI #168 -- last season) took a 65-62 loss to Columbia (Ivy, 14-15, #220 -- last season) to open their season. The 'Cats and Fordham have several common opponents this season (mostly A10 conference & Big 5 members La Salle, St. Joseph's and Temple), so this game will serve as a predictor. The 'Cats come in with a 78-60 win over Albany, giving them a 1-0 record to kick off the season. .
Fordham By the Numbers...
Over the past 5 years the Rams' RPI rank has bounced around in a 100 slot range with #107 representing the high (2007) and #207 (2004) the low. Last season's #168 (coupled with a #13 place finish in the A10 Conference) suggests the Rams are "settling down" again. Fordham was a lower than average pace team last season (64.3 possessions, adjusted, via Ken Pomeroy's Scouting Report for Fordham which ranked the Rams #299 out of approx. 341 - last season's D1 average for pace is 67.0). Fordham's field goal efficiency (eFG) was an average 49.7 (#181) while their defense for shots is a bit suspect (51.0, #215). If the results of their loss to Columbia are a true harbinger, then Coach Whittenburg's efforts to install a more uptempo offense may be valid. The Columbia game was played for about 74 possessions, well above last season's pace. The Rams played only 2 games last season (both during their OOC) at a pace higher than 70. A four factors look at their opener against Columbia suggests that in this year's edition, the staff indeed has begun to adddress some of the weaknesses of last season's team...
If the shot defense looks better, consider that Columbia was not especially strong from the field last season (ranked #208 by Pomeroy). The Rams however, did manage to shave another 8 points off of Columbia's 2008 eFG%. The Rams took many more 3FGAs (49.1 -- as a percentage of their FGAs) against the Columbia Lions than last season (40.1), but even better, they hit their threes at a higher rate than last season (37.0 vs 32.2).
Frontcourt vs frontcourt...
Fordham returns seniors Chris Bethel (6-5, 217lbs), an undersized forward, Zachery Wing (6-8, 210lbs), a little used forward, and center Luke Devine (6-10, 255lbs) to work with freshmen Khiry Gordon (6-7, 188lbs) and Lamar Thomas (6-9, 210lbs). While well regarded, neither Bethel (academics) nor Devine (injuries) has logged much time over the prior two seasons. Fordham's front court, therefore, is even less experienced than their back court. Injuries have taken a toll on Villanova's front court over the course of the past two seasons. Casiem Drummond missed over ½ of last season due to a foot fracture. He is not yet back to "game shape". Losses to Clark and Anderson make the contingent more shallow still. The staff will most likely start senior Dante Cunningham (he has started almost every game since his sophomore year) and sophomore Antonio Pena. Both started against Albany and were responsible for 20 first half points from the field on 10-14 shooting (Pena contributed two more points from the line). Junior #5 Casiem Drummond and senior Frank Tchuisi (a #4/#5) will see continue to see double digit minutes.
Backcourt vs backcourt...
The Rams bring back juniors Brenton Butler (6-2, 205lbs) and Herb Tanner (6-4, 170lbs) and sophomore Mike Moore (6-5, 190lbs) to anchor the freshmen contingent of Jio Fontan (6-0, 170lbs), Trey Blue (6-3, 195lbs) and Alberto Estwick (6-3, 185lbs). Blue was honored as the A10 Rookie of the week for his 24 point, 4 rebound effort against Columbia. Coach Whittenburg started a 3 guard lineup of Fontan, Butler and Tanner against Columbia. Blue may well work his way into the starting lineup this time out, most likely causing either Fontan or Tanner to sit. Estwick saw about 7 minutes of court time versus Columbia. Coach Wright most likely will go with the two Coreys (Fisher and Stokes) as complements to Scottie Reynolds. He used this line up versus Albany with some success, and so will most likely go to it again. The trio comes off of a double digit performance against Albany, 10, 13 and 13 for Fisher, Reynolds and Stokes respectively.
Keys to the Game -- Fordham...
Based on last season's records (and the Columbia game...)
1. Defend the shot -- when Fordham logged an eFG% of <50.0, the Rams went 2-13. The eFG% combines 2FGMs and 3FGMs. Shooting from the 3 point line was very mediocre (32.2 #275). Fordham's eFG% in the Columbia loss was 49.1.
2. Keep the Rams off the line -- in the 14 games where Fordham's FTRate was 33.3 or less, the Rams went 1-13.
3. Hit your shots -- Villanova has to connect from the field. In the 16 games where Fordham's opponents logged an eFG% of 50.0 or greater, the Rams went 5-11. While the Rams were relatively mediocre at defending both 2FGs and 2FGAs, they seemed especially vulnerable to the 2. Last season their opponents hit 50.0% of their shots, ranking the Rams #236 in that category.
Final Thoughts...
This game will pit strengths versus weaknesses - Nova's experience versus Fordham's inexperience. The front court matchups clearly favor Villanova, but the back court is universally recognized as Villanova's strong(est?) element. If you are a Fordham fan, that can't be good. In truth I expect Villanova to dominate in both areas, front and back court. Fordham however has some good outside shooting, the 'Cats will have to counter with good perimeter defense. If Fordham wing players get their shots off (and are accurate) the game could be close (and the outcome shocking?...not likely, but with the 3 point shot you just can't tell...).
Coach Wright used a ten player rotation against Albany. Given two injuries and a possible redshirt, ten is the number of players he has available. Eight players saw double digit minutes, with eleven minutes going to seldom used senior forward Frank Tchuisi and 17 to rehabbing junior center Casiem Drummond. If Blue, Fontan and Brenton can make this a competitive game, the starting five plus "first off the bench" Reggie Redding, may see an even higher percentage of the available minutes than they did against Albany (85%). If Blue Fontan and Brenton cannot make a game of it, expect the staff to give prep time for Tchuisi, Drummond and the two deep bench, walk-on payers Jason Colenda and Russell Wooten. something the staff has consistently provided under similar conditions, in prior seasons.
Roster Notes
Villanova -- Shane Clark and Dwayne Anderson will not suit up for Villanova. Clark had anthroscopic surgery on his right knee two weeks ago, while Anderson was diagnosed with a stress fracture in his foot in the hours before the Albany game. Neither is expected to return to the court in this or the next month.
Fordham -- forward Jacob Green, the transfer from West Virginia, will not fulfill his one year waiting period until the end of the fall semester, and will not be available until late December.
What Others Say...
...Blue Ribbon gives the backcourt a B, the frontcourt a C and the bench/depth a C. Blue Ribbon predicts Fordham will finish #14 (out of 14) in the A10 conference this season. The College Chalktalk Blog also projects a #14 finish for the Rams in their very detailed Fordham Team Preview. After a promising game or two to start last February, the senior-led squad unexpectedly fizzled. As for this season, College Chalktalk Blog preview wasted few words, "...Simply put, an untested group...Beginning with the Ram trio that lines up front, it will be a learning experience...".
Why Everyone Believes...
...Jio Fontan and the newcomers. The Daily News 11/13 season preview identified Fontan as "...the leader of the No. 1-rated high school basketball team in the country (St. Anthony's of Jersey City, NJ)..." who will help bring an attitude change to the Rose Hill campus. Fontan comes with a mix of help for the back court and the front court. Freshmen guards Trey Blue and St. Anthony's teammate Alberto Estwick come from championship HS programs. Freshmen forwards Lamar Thomas and Khiry Gordon will couple with transfer (from West Virginia) Jacob Green to plug gaps left by the departed Marcus Stout and Bryant Dunston. And Coach Dereck Whittenburg (of the 1983 NC State champions) plans to install the same running offense he implemented, with good results, during his tenure at Wagner College.
So Far...
Fordham (A10, 12-17, RPI #168 -- last season) took a 65-62 loss to Columbia (Ivy, 14-15, #220 -- last season) to open their season. The 'Cats and Fordham have several common opponents this season (mostly A10 conference & Big 5 members La Salle, St. Joseph's and Temple), so this game will serve as a predictor. The 'Cats come in with a 78-60 win over Albany, giving them a 1-0 record to kick off the season. .
Fordham By the Numbers...
Over the past 5 years the Rams' RPI rank has bounced around in a 100 slot range with #107 representing the high (2007) and #207 (2004) the low. Last season's #168 (coupled with a #13 place finish in the A10 Conference) suggests the Rams are "settling down" again. Fordham was a lower than average pace team last season (64.3 possessions, adjusted, via Ken Pomeroy's Scouting Report for Fordham which ranked the Rams #299 out of approx. 341 - last season's D1 average for pace is 67.0). Fordham's field goal efficiency (eFG) was an average 49.7 (#181) while their defense for shots is a bit suspect (51.0, #215). If the results of their loss to Columbia are a true harbinger, then Coach Whittenburg's efforts to install a more uptempo offense may be valid. The Columbia game was played for about 74 possessions, well above last season's pace. The Rams played only 2 games last season (both during their OOC) at a pace higher than 70. A four factors look at their opener against Columbia suggests that in this year's edition, the staff indeed has begun to adddress some of the weaknesses of last season's team...
| Fordham/Columbia Four Factors | ||||
| FTA | ||||
| Fordham on... | eFG% | TO% | OR% | FGA |
| Defense | 40.2 | 28.7 | 46.2 | 53.6 |
| Offense | 49.1 | 20.0 | 15.0 | 41.8 |
If the shot defense looks better, consider that Columbia was not especially strong from the field last season (ranked #208 by Pomeroy). The Rams however, did manage to shave another 8 points off of Columbia's 2008 eFG%. The Rams took many more 3FGAs (49.1 -- as a percentage of their FGAs) against the Columbia Lions than last season (40.1), but even better, they hit their threes at a higher rate than last season (37.0 vs 32.2).
Frontcourt vs frontcourt...
Fordham returns seniors Chris Bethel (6-5, 217lbs), an undersized forward, Zachery Wing (6-8, 210lbs), a little used forward, and center Luke Devine (6-10, 255lbs) to work with freshmen Khiry Gordon (6-7, 188lbs) and Lamar Thomas (6-9, 210lbs). While well regarded, neither Bethel (academics) nor Devine (injuries) has logged much time over the prior two seasons. Fordham's front court, therefore, is even less experienced than their back court. Injuries have taken a toll on Villanova's front court over the course of the past two seasons. Casiem Drummond missed over ½ of last season due to a foot fracture. He is not yet back to "game shape". Losses to Clark and Anderson make the contingent more shallow still. The staff will most likely start senior Dante Cunningham (he has started almost every game since his sophomore year) and sophomore Antonio Pena. Both started against Albany and were responsible for 20 first half points from the field on 10-14 shooting (Pena contributed two more points from the line). Junior #5 Casiem Drummond and senior Frank Tchuisi (a #4/#5) will see continue to see double digit minutes.
Backcourt vs backcourt...
The Rams bring back juniors Brenton Butler (6-2, 205lbs) and Herb Tanner (6-4, 170lbs) and sophomore Mike Moore (6-5, 190lbs) to anchor the freshmen contingent of Jio Fontan (6-0, 170lbs), Trey Blue (6-3, 195lbs) and Alberto Estwick (6-3, 185lbs). Blue was honored as the A10 Rookie of the week for his 24 point, 4 rebound effort against Columbia. Coach Whittenburg started a 3 guard lineup of Fontan, Butler and Tanner against Columbia. Blue may well work his way into the starting lineup this time out, most likely causing either Fontan or Tanner to sit. Estwick saw about 7 minutes of court time versus Columbia. Coach Wright most likely will go with the two Coreys (Fisher and Stokes) as complements to Scottie Reynolds. He used this line up versus Albany with some success, and so will most likely go to it again. The trio comes off of a double digit performance against Albany, 10, 13 and 13 for Fisher, Reynolds and Stokes respectively.
Keys to the Game -- Fordham...
Based on last season's records (and the Columbia game...)
1. Defend the shot -- when Fordham logged an eFG% of <50.0, the Rams went 2-13. The eFG% combines 2FGMs and 3FGMs. Shooting from the 3 point line was very mediocre (32.2 #275). Fordham's eFG% in the Columbia loss was 49.1.
2. Keep the Rams off the line -- in the 14 games where Fordham's FTRate was 33.3 or less, the Rams went 1-13.
3. Hit your shots -- Villanova has to connect from the field. In the 16 games where Fordham's opponents logged an eFG% of 50.0 or greater, the Rams went 5-11. While the Rams were relatively mediocre at defending both 2FGs and 2FGAs, they seemed especially vulnerable to the 2. Last season their opponents hit 50.0% of their shots, ranking the Rams #236 in that category.
Final Thoughts...
This game will pit strengths versus weaknesses - Nova's experience versus Fordham's inexperience. The front court matchups clearly favor Villanova, but the back court is universally recognized as Villanova's strong(est?) element. If you are a Fordham fan, that can't be good. In truth I expect Villanova to dominate in both areas, front and back court. Fordham however has some good outside shooting, the 'Cats will have to counter with good perimeter defense. If Fordham wing players get their shots off (and are accurate) the game could be close (and the outcome shocking?...not likely, but with the 3 point shot you just can't tell...).
Coach Wright used a ten player rotation against Albany. Given two injuries and a possible redshirt, ten is the number of players he has available. Eight players saw double digit minutes, with eleven minutes going to seldom used senior forward Frank Tchuisi and 17 to rehabbing junior center Casiem Drummond. If Blue, Fontan and Brenton can make this a competitive game, the starting five plus "first off the bench" Reggie Redding, may see an even higher percentage of the available minutes than they did against Albany (85%). If Blue Fontan and Brenton cannot make a game of it, expect the staff to give prep time for Tchuisi, Drummond and the two deep bench, walk-on payers Jason Colenda and Russell Wooten. something the staff has consistently provided under similar conditions, in prior seasons.
Roster Notes
Villanova -- Shane Clark and Dwayne Anderson will not suit up for Villanova. Clark had anthroscopic surgery on his right knee two weeks ago, while Anderson was diagnosed with a stress fracture in his foot in the hours before the Albany game. Neither is expected to return to the court in this or the next month.
Fordham -- forward Jacob Green, the transfer from West Virginia, will not fulfill his one year waiting period until the end of the fall semester, and will not be available until late December.
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