You would think since the Wildcats are playing the University of Central Florida (UCF) in Orlando, Florida (first round of the Old Spice Classic), the Golden Knights would play the host. And the Wildcats could count this as a road game. Not true, the game, played in the Milk House at Walt Disney World counts as a neutral (UCF's home court, the brand-new Convocation Center is about 4 miles away) court, and Rider, the MAAC representative in the tournament is the "official" host...because the MAAC is the "host conference" for the Old Spice Classic. Like a few things in WDW though, separating the illusion from the reality might be difficult. The Wildcats and Golden Knights meet for the first time in the Old Spice Classic Tournment. That's for real. UCF, despite moving up to the Conference USA from the Atlantic Sun Conference has remained a surprisingly competitive team in conference and D1 play. The program is stable, head coach Kirk Speraw has been 14 years at the helm, and the Athletic Department has capitalized on the promotion to a "high mid-major" conference by upgrading the sports facilities, both football and basketball, and launching an aggressive PR campaign, to attract better recruits and expand the fan-base. These guys have a plan.
What Others Say...
Picked to finish in the middle third of CUSA this season, UCF has a history of exceeding expectations. Blue Ribbon gives the backcourt a B-, the frontcourt a C+ and the bench/depth a C+. Gone are team leaders Josh Peppers (scoring -- 14.3 ppg) and Lavell Payne (rebounding -- 5.3 rpg), but the Knights return most of the players and minutes (66.5%) from a team that went 22-9 (11-5 in conference) last season. "...Speraw doesn't expect the Knights to slip too far with two of the league's op 3-point shooters i senior point guard Mike O'Donnell (.430) and junior shooting guard Jermaine Taylor (.414)..." (Athlon).
Why Everyone Believes...
The ACC raid on the Big East in 2004-05 rippled through a number of eastern conferences. UCF, whose program had become the flagship for the Atlantic Sun Conference (with an RPI of #108 in 2004-05) was invited to join the CUSA when seven of CUSA's members moved on to other conferences. After a surprisingly strong 5th place finish in their inaugural season, the Golden Knights shocked CUSA by running to a 2nd place regular season finish last year. The Athletic Department has just finished a 10,000 seat on campus facility for basketball and a larger, on-campus stadium for the football team. Heady times for the Orlando school.
So Far...
UCF has played 2 games so far, hosting mid-major powerhouse Nevada (WAC, 0-1, RPI #46) and Norfolk State (MEAC, 0-2, RPI #145) at their new facility. And the Golden Knights are 2-0 so far, beating the Wolf Pack by 3 (63-60) and Norfolk State by 14 (78-64). though the season is still young, their current RPI is an eyecatching #13 to Villanova's #43.
Central Florida By the Numbers...
UCF's RPI reflects the change in status over the past 3 - 4 years. The Golden Knights had an RPI of #108 in 2004-05, their last season in the Atlantic Sun Conference (actually down from #68 in 2003-04). They won the conference title and advanced to NCAAs, losing in the first round (both in 2003-94 & 2004-05). As newbies in CUSA their RPI (reflected in their 12-15 record, down from 21-8 the year before) took a step back to #190. They rebounded to #119 in 2006-07. Central Florida was a slightly lower than average pace team last season (64.3 possessions, adjusted, via Ken Pomeroy's Central Florida Scout Page which ranked the Golden Knights #265 out of approx. 336 - the average pace last season was 69.4). UCF's field goal efficiency (eFG) was an excellent 54.0 (#29) while their defense for shots nearly kept pace (47.4, #65). The Knights return only 69.2% of their playing minutes from last season however, and the departed Peppers & Payne owned just over 50% of the possessions and 52% of the shots when they were on the floor together.
Frontcourt vs frontcourt...
...Kenrick Zondervan (c-pf) and wing Jermaine Taylor (sg-sf) anchor a rotation that includes Stanley Billings (c), Andre Thornton (sophomore pf) and Jean-Michel Yotio (freshman pf). Villanova's rotation will match Dante Cunningham or Drummond against Zondervan and Shane Clark against Taylor. Drummond received a 26 minute tune-up against Bucknell, around 13 minutes per half. Allocating a double digit helping of playing time, whether in relief of Cunningham or beside him, may become a trend for Drummond and the 'Cats. Stokes and Pena saw their court time diminish from the Stony Brook to Bucknell, reflecting the competitiveness of the opponents, and possibly the progress each has made to master his position and role on the team. Clark, and anyone else draws Taylor, will face a perimeter player who jacks 3s very consistently. He was not hitting against Nevada, but one of these days...
Backcourt vs backcourt...
...Coach Speraw will most likely start O'Donnell & Dave Noel. Upperclassmen Chip Cartwright and Mike Battle will probably split time with occasional appearances by the deeper bench (freshmen Taylor Young & Chris Baez). In 2006-07 Noel and O'Donnell scored efficiently in an offense that worked to set up front court players Josh Peppers (departed), Lavell Payne (departed) and sf/sg Jermaine Taylor. This season more responsibility for point production will go to O'Donnell & Noel, who will draw that extra attention even as they try to maintain their scoring efficiencies. It should be a challenge. Coach Wright used a rotation that includes Scottie Reynolds (starter), Reggie Redding, Malcolm Grant and Corey Stokes in the Stony Brook game. He worked Corey Fisher briefly in the Bucknell game, reducing Stoke's minutes sharply while working the veterans Redding and Reynolds for 90% of the game in a two pronged effort (Redding to shut down Bucknell's scorer on defense, Reynolds to put points on the score board offensively) to turn that game around. Redding will most likely draw the hot shooter. How effectively Fisher, Grant and Stokes can fit into the defense may well determine how many minutes each gets.
Final Thoughts
This game will throw yet another experienced back court at the young Wildcats, possibly the most accomplished backcourt the 'Cats have seen yet. Against Nevada Coach Speraw gave his four guards and wingman Jermaine Taylor > 25 minutes apiece. The starters (Taylor, O'Donnell & Noel) received more than 30 minutes apiece (sound familiar Wildcat fans?). Chip Cartwright (game high 6), Noel & Taylor dished out 11 of the Golden Knights' 14 assists and the backcourt plus Taylor (Noel had the game high of 9) grabbed 26 of the Golden Knight's 40 rebounds in that same game. Given O'Donnell and Noel's scoring efficiency, the challenge for the young back court crew may well be more defensive than offensive. Three point/perimater defense, not a traditionally strong area for the Wildcats, will be needed to shut down a team that will look and feel a lot like Villanova's team. If athleticism and talent favor the 'Cats (by no means a given...), location and experience favor the Golden Knights. The Milk House is neutral in name only. Locals, not migrating home for the Thanksgiving Break can be counted on to turn out (assuming there is no football that weekend...).
Coach Wright jettisoned the larger rotation with Nova's uncomfortably small margin of victory over Bucknell. Against Stony Brook the staff ran 11 players through the rotation, giving double digit minutes to 8 of them. Against the sharp shooting Bison the staff ran 10 players total, giving only 6 double digit minutes. Four of the five starters logged > 30 minutes apiece. The Old Spice Classic has the Wildcats playing 3 games in 4 days. The player management challenge will require that the staff win this game but not exhaust the nucleus in the process. There will be, win or lose, 2 more games to play before the long weekend is over. Nail biter or blowout, I will be curious to see who (and when) the staff brings in first, second and third. How deep into the bench the staff goes, and for how long those players are given court time should give some insight into the staff's thinking about the team members. The #6 and #7 men will probably compete (strongly) for starting spots for the balance of the season. How quickly those first substitutions are made will most likely be as much circumstance as staff's habits. Irrespective of large/small lead/deficit, putting some of the bench on the floor should help to sort out playing time issues for later in the season.
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