Preview -- Pennsylvania Quakers

The Wildcats-Quakers series goes back to the very beginnings of both programs. Penn records say the first game was played in the 1909-10 season. Penn won 39-11 (hmmm, that game could have been played in 1970...). The teams next met in 1921-22, Villanova's first year of "official record keeping". The 'Cats played a better game, but still lost by 4 (27-23). The series took a 34 year hiatus, returning with the birth of the Big 5 in the mid 1950s. The Wildcats and Quakers met on February 8 1956 in the Palestra where the Wildcats won by 15 (89-74). And the 'Cats have never looked back. Aside from a series of alternate year interruptions during the 1990s, the two teams have met annually (sometimes twice a season) since 1956. The 'Cats now lead the series 37-17 (or if you check Penn's records, 37-18), making this the most one-sided of all Villanova's Big 5 Rivalries (0.685). In the last decade Villanova has run up a 8-2 record versus UPenn. With conference commitments the games have come to be scheduled early in the season; the clash Saturday will be the earliest meeting ever between the two programs. Series record with Villanova aside, Pennsylvania has been a dominant and (along with Princeton) well respected program in the otherwise decidedly mid-major Ivy League, and is one of the 25 winningest programs (by percentage) in D1 basketball. This will be the second meeting between Jay Wright and Pennsylvania Head Coach Glen Miller. Coach Miller has brought an uptempo style of play to the Philadelphia school, and is reworking the team to accommodate the faster pace. Whether the quicker style of play will reverse the Quaker's fortunes at the hands of the Wildcats remains to be seen...

What Others Say...
... Blue Ribbon gives the backcourt a B, the frontcourt a D and the bench/depth a C-. CHN ranked Penn #150 in their preseason preview. Bulletin sports writer (and Hoops Heaven Blogger) Brendan Quinn wrote...

"Times have changed and so has the pecking order of the Ancient Eight. With the departures of two-time Ivy League Player of the Year Ibrahim Jabber and do-it-all workhorse Mark Zoller, Miller losses 58.2 percent of his scoring and 50.2 percent of his rebounding from a year ago.
'I'm excited with this young group,' Miller said. 'They have a lot to prove because of how much we lost. We have some talented, but unproven guys here who are looking to step up.'...
- Brendan F. Quinn, Looking for a New Identity

Blue Ribbon, Athlon and Lindy's project Penn to finish somewhere between #2 - #4.

...How Penn's young players develop as the season unfolds also will have an impact on the race [for the Ivy League championship]. Despite a starting lineup that could include two sophomores and two freshmen, Miller isn't ready to concede yet another league championship (his current program has won seven of the last nine) just yet. He understands the pressure of being the favorite, having guided a loaded Penn team to the title last season in his first year in West Philadelphia....
- ESPN, 8/28/07, "Shoot Around: Is This the End of an Era?"

Why Everyone Believes...
...Coach Miller and the Penn faithful had a super trio of players in Ibby Jabar, Matt Zoller and Steve Danley. But the cupboard is hardly bare as 2 year starter and second team All-Ivy guard Brian Grandieri leads a Junior and Sophomore laden squad (with a fortuitously recruited freshman or two) into another campaign. Grandieri (senior, 6-4, 190lb) is the recognized leader who will work the backcourt with career backup Michael Kach (senior, 6-4, 195lb), Aron Cohen (junior, 6-2, 180lb), backup KenEgee (junior, 6-3, 175lb), Tyler Bernardini (senior, 6-4, 195lb) and Remy Gofield (freshman, 6-4, 205lb). Juniors Cameron Lewis (forward, 6-8, 220lb) and Brennan Votel (forward, 6-7, 215lb) head up a front court contingent that includes sophomores Andreas Schreiber (center, 6-9, 235lb) and Justin Reilly (forward, 6-8, 225lb) and freshman Jack Eggleston (forward, 6-8, 215lb). The staff is not starting from scratch, as the juniors and sophomores saw various amounts of playing time last season.

So Far...
...Penn brings a 2-5 record into this game. Wins include a 16 point victory over the Citadel (Southern, 3-3, RPI #285) and Navy (Patriot, 2-6, RPI #283). Their losses include an 8 point decision to Drexel (CAA, 5-1, RPI #49), a 21 point rout at the hands of Loyola of Maryland (MAAC, 4-3, RPI #83) and two 15 point losses to Howard (MEAC, 3-4, RPI #130) and Virginia (ACC, 6-1, RPI #39) respectively. Their latest outing was a 12 point loss to Lafayette (Patriot, 4-2, #252). The 'Cats and Quakers have not shared any opponents this year, though both will see the balance of the Big 5 contingent before season's end.

Penn By the Numbers...
...Over the past 5 years Penn has, with a single dip in 2003-04 (#121), kept their RPI in double digits. They have ranged between #59 and #94, finishing last year at #88. Penn is a higher than average pace team this season (73.8 possessions, adjusted, via Ken Pomeroy's University of Pennsylvania Scout Page which ranks the Quakers #77 out of approx. 341 - the current average for pace is 69.2). Penn's efficiency numbers from Pomeroy's Scout Page...

Penn's 4 Factors
	eFG%	Rnk	TO%	Rnk	OR%	Rnk	FTR%	Rnk
Offense	48.1	207	22.7	191	30.8	241	34.6	12
Defense	52.7	249	20.4	240	34.0	183	39.1	214

University of Pennsylvania appears to be farther along on offense than defense. Villanova's offense should prove especially challenging for Penn's defense. The Wildcat's eFG is not particularly good, but their OR% is among the best in D1. The 'Cats may miss shots, but they will get extra chances. Penn does not force many turnovers, they may not be able to level the field by reducing "first chance" FGAs. Villanova's defense has been the weak point to date. Nova has yielded about 1.03 points per possession, a rate far too high to win consistently in the Big East. But a sight for sore eyes for a Quaker team that has been able to score only 0.98 points per possession. Penn has been far more effective shooting 2s (50.4%, #121) than 3s (28.9%, #288), but then so were George Mason and NCSU...

Frontcourt vs frontcourt...
...The front court contingent includes forwards Jack Eggleston, Justin Reilly, Cameron Lewis and Breenan Votel. With the exception of Votel all have started at least one game, and virtually all have seen minutes in every one of Penn's six games. Sophomore center Andreas Schreiber has started 2 games and seen minutes in all games as well. Miller has gone with youth for the last 3 Quaker games and started the freshman Jack Eggleston and sophomore Andreas Schreiber with 3 guards. The Quaker offense is primarily guard oriented, but Schreiber does take about 21% of the available shots when he is on the floor, suggesting he has a "regular" role in the offense. The other frontcourt players are routinely "role" players with respect to the offense. Virtually all are, however, efficient in their scoring -- all but Votel have PPWSs above 1.05, while Schreiber and Eggleston have eFGs >60.0 (Reilly and Lewis' eFGs are in the 40s...Votel brings up the rear at 36.1). The strongest rebounder in the group is Schreiber whose 21.7 defensive rebounding percentage is Top 250. The balance of the frontcourt ranges from average ( for a forward, Eggleston at 14.6) down to mediocre (Reilly at 11.8). The Quaker paint players are not especially strong at offensive rebounding. Schreiber, with an 8.0 rebounding percentage (just abover average) is bested by guard Brian Grandieri. The Wildcats will most likely start Cunningham and Clark (if he is healthy). Drummond, who had a very encouraging series of games in Orlando will certainly see minutes early if he does not start. The balance of the frontcourt rotation, Pena, Stokes and Ott, will see minutes if the 'Cats can control the flow of the game early. Or if one of the first three is unable to go full speed. Game pace may be the key to the frontcourt's durability.

Backcourt vs backcourt...
...Miller will draw from a pool of Brian Grandieri, Tyler Bernardini, Michael Kach, Harrison Gaines, Aron Cohen, Remy Cofield and Kevin Eges for his starters and substititutes. Grandieri and Bernardini have been starters for most of the young season. The staff has shown a preference lately for a third guard and Gaines is the guard whose number they have called. Kach and Cofield have also started at least once so far. Eges and Cohen have appeared in every game so far. Conor Turley, Joe Gill and Dan Monckton are farther down on the bench. If they see the floor the 'Cats are probably way up or way down. The offense provides much of the Quaker's offense. Between them Grandieri and Bernardini take over 51% of the shots when they are on the floor together. They are efficient as well as prolific. Both have eFGs >50.0 and PPWSs > 1.10. Very decent numbers for players who draw the most attention from opposing defenses. The staff will start 2 or 3 from Scottie Reynolds, Reggie Redding, Corey Fisher and Malcolm Grant. If he is drawing breath, Scottie Reynolds will start. Redding has started every game this season and has played the best basketball of his career at Villanova. He will most likely get the nod for this game too. Fisher scored 21 points in 32 minutes of play versus North Carolina State Sunday. His eFG was 50.0 and his PPWS was 1.03 (he missed all of his 3s) -- very good numbers for a freshman playing his 4^th collegiate game. If he does not start he will come off the bench early. Grant will also see minutes. If the first 5 games show a trend, he will see at least 10 minutes over the course of the game.

Final Thoughts...
...When sophomore iron man Darren Smith tore his knee up in the first 7 minutes of the Drexel (Penn's openning) game Coach Miller began the basketball equivalent of a google search through his bench to find a replacement. He went through 13 players. In the first half. Ten different players have started with various combinations over the first 7 games. This is partly in response to the loss of Smith, and partly a function of the pace that Miller likes to have his teams set right from the beginning of the game. Villanova managed to finally subdue a very experienced Quaker squad last year in the highest paced game (78.2) they played all season. The Wildcat defensive effort was the second worst (DRtg -- 113.8) they registered last season. The Quakers practically scored at will from the 3 point line (62.5%) during that game and they were able to get to the line 4 times for every 5 FGAs they took (FTRate 82.2). The 'Cats won because they controlled the defensive boards and forced the Quakers to turnover a devastatingly high 32% their possessions. The danger for the Wildcats is that they are fast and athletic -- they will be able to keep pace (for time anyway) with the Penn team -- and they may give in to the temptation to try. They are more efficient when they take the time to set up their offense and wait for those opportunities to score in bursts. Villanova's backcourt-oriented squad that shoots from the perimeter on offense and traps and presses on defense is often described as a fast-paced team. But the team does not have, nor has ever employed end-to-end speed as an offensive strategy. The tempo is by and large controlled, and the speed comes in bursts (often described as spurts). In terms of game pace Villanova is, over the course of a season, rarely more than 1 - 2 possessions over or under the average pace for all of D1.

Penn was competitive with a not especially strong Lafayette team for about 30 minutes on Wednesday evening. Coach Miller continues to search his roster for answers, and he may find them by the start of Ivy League play in January. But his Quakers face the Wildcats on Saturday, so time is short. The Villanova staff has questions too, but unlike Penn, Villanovas choices are a bit less Hobbsian. If the 'Cats can control the game early the staff may want to find out how far along some of the deeper parts of the bench have come.