The Wildcats and Bison agreed to postpone their contract game from last season to this season. This is the earliest the teams have scheduled their games with each other so far. And given the Giant Killer reputation the Bison have cultivated over the past 3 - 4 seasons, the advantage may well go to the Bison. Under head coach Pat Flannery Bucknell has (along with Ralph Willard's Holy Cross Crusaders) become a competitive and well respected program in the otherwise decidedly mid-major Patriot League. The Bison earned at-large bids to the NCAAs in the 2005 & 2006 seasons, winning their first round games both years (Syracuse and Kansas were the power conference victims). With the graduation of three time All Patriot League center Chris McNaughton and the mid summer injury to 6-8 senior Darren Mastropaolo (most likely a red shirt this season), the Bison have only the memories of those glory years to guide them...
What Others Say...
... Blue Ribbon gives the backcourt a B+, the frontcourt a C+ and the bench/depth a B. The Bison are projected (by Blue Ribbon, Athlon & Lindy's) to finish second to Holy Cross in the Patrior League. "... loses three starters from a team that lost only one conference game all season. The backcourt will be the focal point for the Bison. John Griffin, an all-conference combo guard, leads the way. He can shoot the three and also get to the basket..." -- March Madness All Season Blog.
Why Everyone Believes...
...While the nucleus of the 2004-06 teams have graduated many of the underclassmen have moved into the starter roles. Senior pg John Griffen will have juniors Justin Castleberry and Jason Vegotsky and sophomore Stephan Tyree to play off in the backcourt, while junior backup Josh Linthicum will step into Chris McNaughton's shoes in the frontcourt. He will be joined by sophomore Patrick Behan and freshmen Todd O'Brien, a well regarded 6-11 big man out of New Holland, Pa. "Head Coach Pat Flannery...believes that the Bison have of talent remaining to challenge for another (Patriot) league title..." (Athlon).
So Far...
The 'Cats enter this game sporting a 1-0 record - their most recent effort, the season opener at home against Stony Brook brought a 22 point victory. Bucknell opened with a 55-52 win against Albany (like the Stony Brook Seawolves, a member of American East Conference) and then hit the road for a 14 point win against Towson State, 71-57.
Bucknell By the Numbers...
Over the past 3 years BU has maintained a top #100 rank in the RPI (2005 - #55. 2006 - #38, 2007 - #79). Bucknell is a nearly average pace team this season (69.2 possessions, adjusted, via Ken Pomeroy's Bucknell Scout Page which ranks the Bison #172 out of approx. 312 - the current average for pace is 70.0). Last season, BU's field goal efficiency (eFG) was a very strong 53.5 (#43) while their defense for shots was a good (but not as strong) 48.3, #99. The Bison's 2007 defensive rating 97.6 (adjusted), good for a #106 overall D1 ranking. The key stat/skill was their ability to limit their opponent's offensive rebounding to 25.4% (the Bison had a defensive rebounding percentage of 74/6%), #1 in D1 according to Pomeroy. Brown, McNaughton and Mastropaolo were all recognized Top 500 rebounders in that category. None are available this season.
Frontcourt vs frontcourt...
Bucknell's rotation will include Josh Lithicum (6-11), Patrick Behan (6-8) and Todd O'Brien (6-11) and then Coach Flannery has to slide guards over. Lithicum has played 130 minutes in the past two seasons as backup to Chris McNaughton. Behan, who logged 18.6% of the available frontcourt minutes last year as backup to Mastropaolo and Brown will step into the starting job. Flannery has a number of guard/wings (Rob Thomas, 6-3, Jason Vegotsky, 6-2,Stephen Tyree, 6-3, G.W. Boon, 6-4 and Zach Evans, 6-5) in the 6-2 to 6-5 range, who will no doubt draw time in a 3 guard scheme. Someone may have to slide over to cover Behan on occasion, which would make the Bison very small. Villanova will counter with a rotation that most likely will include some combination of Dante Cunningham, Shane Clark, Casiem Drummond, Antonio Pen, and Andrew Ott. Given the Bison are undermanned, Coach Wright may decide to run a large rotation to wear their Bison counterparts down a bit. Junior wingman Dwayne Anderson (6-6) and freshman Corey Stokes (6-5) may see time with the mismatches available.
Backcourt vs backcourt...
The Bison offense will shift even more dramatically to the back court this season as this part of the team has the larger measure of talent and experience going into the season. Coach Flannery will rotate John Griffin (6-0, pg/sg captain), Justin Castleberry (6-1), Jason Vegotsky (6-2), Stephen Tyree (6-3) and Darryl Shazier (6-0) through the back court. Villanova will counter with Scottie Reynolds (sophomore, 6-2), Reggie Redding (sophomore, 6-5), Corey Fisher (freshman, 6-1) and Malcolm Grant (freshman, 6-1).
Final Thoughts...
...the Wildcats may well spend the first 7 minutes of this game thinking they are looking at themselves in the mirror...a smaller, slightly less quick & athletic version of themselves to be sure. Villanova should be able to dominate the front court pretty quickly. Bucknell however has some good outside shooting (Vegotsky & Castleberry both, per Pomeroy's Bucknell Scout Page, had eFGs >50.0 and 3FGM% >= 40.0%), the 'Cats will have to counter with good perimeter defense, not a strong point of their defense last year (or this season to date). If Bucknell's wing players get their shots off (and are accurate) the game could be closer than anticipated (is the outcome in doubt?...not likely, but the 3 point shot has become the equalizer in D1 ball...).
Coach Wright used an 11 man rotation versus Stony Brook, but 3 of those players saw 10 minutes between them. The staff will have to find minutes for Corey Fisher, held out in the opener but is, according to Let's Go Nova expected to play. If Villanova can get the game under control early, the staff may continue to experiment with different lineup combinations in preparation for the Old Spice Classic (and the rest of the season). Possibly Drummond and Pena will see (relatively) more minutes in that case. While getting the far end of the bench some playing time has been traditionally valued by the staff and appears to be a priority in the early season games, expect that if the game remains competitive throughout, the staff will shorten the rotation to the group they anticipate will form the nucleus this season.
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