Wednesday, November 18, 2009

Guest Contributor Ray Floriani: ESPN's 24 Hours of Basketball, St. Peter's-Monmouth Recap

by Ray Floriani

JERSEY CITY, NJ -- A 6 am start, as part of the ESPN marathon, made for a unique setting. Beyond the excitement, all night activities and pre-game breakfast for the students who were absolutely pumped up, was a very good showing on the defensive end by St.Peter’s. St. Peter's and their cross state rival Monmouth University competed in a 63 possession game.

Offn.
Eff.
Monmouth54
St. Peter's92

The Four Factors:


FTM
eFG%FGAOReb%TO%
Monmouth23263029
St. Peter's51162927

The 6 am hour was forgotten as, immediately after the tip, both clubs engaged with emotion and intensity. The first half saw St.Peter’s leading 27-16. At intermission it was a 33 possession tempo with John Dunne’s club showing their defensive prowess. Turnover rates were rather high. Chalk it up to defense rather than the 6 am tipoff. Effective field goal percentage shows how well St.Peter’s defended. Monmouth started slowly.

Offn.
Eff.
Monmouth49
St. Peter's82

I didn’t expect the Hawks to post an under 50 in offensive efficiency for the 1st half, but the second half was not much better for the Northeast Conference representatives. St.Peter’s man to man contested the perimeter. 6-8 sophomore Travis Taylor, Monmouth's primary inside threat, was faced by collapsing defenders to the verge of frustration. The Hawks shot 4 of 22 (18%) the first half. On the afternoon -- excuse me morning -- they were 10 of 47 from the field (21%). Taylor led all scorers with 12 points while Wesley Jenkins paced a balanced Peacock attack with 10 points.

Basketball at 6 am is an almost surreal experience. Arriving at just after 5 am to find a charged up, high energy atmosphere. Departing after interviews, around 8:30, I found the campus as quiet as a church, commuters, on their way to work mingled with students on their way to classes. Truly an experience. For players, coaches, fans...all involved.

"We played three emotional games in five days but give St.Peter’s defense credit. They were awfully good.” –Monmouth Coach Dave Calloway

“I’m really excited right now but in a few hours I’ll be tired. I had every alarm in the house go off at 3 am this morning.” – St.Peter’s coach John Dunne

Penn Post Game -- Passing the Baton



The Big 5
Villanova opened the Big 5 season last night at the Pavilion as hosts for the Quakers of the University of Pennsylvania. The 'Cats were not very polite hosts as they rung up a 38 point win, 103-65, over their guests. The game was largely over at half-time, as Villanova took a commanding, 55-25 lead into the locker room. Coach Wright held off for a time, but went ahead and emptied the bench about halfway through the second half, running a total of 12 players through the game in the last 20 minutes. And with this victory, the Wildcats notched their 30th Big 5 win of the decade, surpassing the win total set by the great Penn teams of the 1970s.

The Official website posted an AP wirestory and box score, while a number of the Villanova blogs posted recaps. Rather than post the individual links, I will give you the Villanova Viewpoint, where the editor has already collected the links. A good job of coverage all around. Breaking down the box score by halves...

OpponentPennsylvania 
 1st2ndGame 
Pace37.237.774.9
 Offense Defense
1st2ndGame1st2ndGame
eFG%67.767.267.533.350.042.2
TORate13.426.520.024.213.318.7
OR%33.357.144.823.827.325.6
FTA/FGA48.425.036.540.751.646.6
FTM/FGA41.915.628.625.929.027.6
ARate55.647.451.485.753.865.0
Blk%0.00.00.03.79.76.9
Stl%7.918.513.216.65.310.8
PPWS1.441.341.390.781.040.92
2FG%70.656.061.930.050.042.3
3FG%42.971.452.423.533.328.1
FT%86.762.578.363.656.359.3
%2FG43.658.350.524.040.033.8
%3FG32.731.332.048.037.541.5
%FT23.610.417.528.022.524.6

The pace half-over-half was surprisingly consistent given the large rotation. Given post game comments from Coach Miller ("As much speed coming off the bench..."(as they have starting) suggests Penn was not able to control the pace. Hard to do when your team posts a 33.3 eFG% in the first half, and 42.2 overall. And can only rebound about 1 in 4 misses. Those are very tough numbers for the Quakers, but do suggest some good things about the Wildcats.

Notes & Observations
1. Mouphtaou Yarou is a project. Yarou was DQ'd with 5 fouls in 17 minutes of play. He logged foul #1 about a minute into the 1st period, but the Coach waited another minute before sitting him down. Mouph checked back in 14 minutes later and finished out the half. Overall he averaged 3:24 between fouls in this game. He did better (2 fouls in 20 minutes of play) versus FDU.
2. The staff reached deep into the rotation as the starters only took 52% of the minutes in the 2nd half. Twelve players checked in at the scorer's table durning the last 20 minutes. The Wildcats still managed to out score Penn by 8 points (48-40).
3. The assist rate declined in the 2nd half. The freshman Maalik Wayns logged the larger portion of his minutes during the 2nd half, notching a single assist (a good looking entry pass) while scoring 16 points (for the game high). No question he will be an impact player in time...can he involve his team mates a bit more? Terrific speed and court vision though.
4. Antonio Pena logged a double-double, scoring 10 rebounds and 12 points in 25 minutes of play. This was his first as a Wildcat, and I suspect it will not be his last. Congratulations Tone.

Roster Notes
Penn Coach Glen Miller indicated Quaker wing & lead scorer Tyler Bernardini, absent entirely for the 2nd half, was nursing a foot injured during the Penn State game.

And Then There's
The folks at Rush the Court had asked that I do a live blog from the Pavilion concurrent with the game. How could I refuse? The task seemed daunting, as first Rush the Court had to get approval. Many thanks to Michael Sheridan, Villanova's SID who approved and made arrangements. Thanks go out to PeterN with whom I hitched a ride to the game, and mrbb, the Brothers Figg & the Beefer., all of whom made this prodigal alum feel very welcome and very much at home.

Monday, November 16, 2009

Preview -- University of Pennsylvania

The City Series
The Wildcats and Quakers face off in the opening game of the 59th renewal of Philadelphia's famed Big 5 series, at the Pavilion on Villanova's campus. The series, held annually since 1955, pits (a period during the 1990s excepted) Philadelphia's four city colleges (La Salle, Penn, St. Joseph's and Temple) and Villanova in a round robin series of games that, in the period before conferences, often reached a climax as each season ended. Today, Villanova typically plays most, if not all, of their Big 5 slate before they launch into the Big East regular season. This season is unusual in that Villanova will play 2 of their 4 rivals even before the end of November. While the Quakers have had a few off seasons under head coach Glen Miller (his 3 year record record at Penn is a disappointing average 45-45). After a 1st place finish (22-9) and an NCAA bid in his rookie season, the Quakers slumped to a 23-36 record. This season is projected as the Quaker's bounce back, as they expect to be among the top teams in the mid-major Ivy League, the oldest conference in the Northeast. While one might think of this as just another mid-major tune-up for the Wildcats, consider that the Wildcats have, to this point in the 2001-2010 decade, logged 29 Big 5 wins. That total matches Penn's best win total (from 1971-1980, 29-11, 0.725) which in turn, is the best decade-long record (wins, winning percentage) of any program in Big 5 competition. Should the Wildcats beat the Quakers, they will have notched at least 30 wins in the decade, and be guaranteed a winning percentage no worse than 0.750. Villanova has won the City Series 5 times since 2004, sharing the title twice during that run (2005 & 2008, both times with Temple). Villanova leads their series with Penn, 39-17, and puts a six game winning streak versus Penn on the line...

What Others Say...
...Blue Ribbon projects the the Quakers to finish 3rd in the Ivy League -- an improvement over last season's #7 finish (in the 8 team Ivy League) -- and gives the backcourt a B, the frontcourt a C and the bench/depth a C. Rush the Court writer Dave Zeitlin also projected Penn as the 3rd place team in his Ivy League preview, citing the return of Andreas Schreiber and Darren Smith as reasons to look for Coach Miller to have a solid starting line up. But Harrison Gaines' departure will have the Quakers looking for scoring from the remaining members of the rotation.

So Far...
Penn lost to an improving Penn State (Big Ten, 1-0, RPI #47 -- 2009) team Friday evening, 70-55 in State Park. The 'Cats enter this game sporting a 1-0 record - their opening game effort against Fairleigh Dickinson providing fans with a rusty first half, but a shooting exhibition in the second half that yielded a 23 point victory. .

Penn By the Numbers...
Over the past 5 years the Quakers have declined steadily from #59 (under Fran Dunphy) to #252 (last season -- an improvement actually, over their 260 rank in 2008) in the RPI. Penn ran a higher than average pace last season (68.2 possessions, adjusted, via Ken Pomeroy's Penn Scout Page which ranked the Quakers #93 out of approx. 336 - the D1 pace last season was 66.5). Penn's field goal efficiency (eFG) last season was a disappointing 47.1 (#243). Combined with their relatively high turnover rate (20.7, #202) and low offensive rebounding percentage (29.3, #276) Penn registered one of the least efficient offenses in D1 last season (according to Ken Pomeroy). The Quakers wanted to shoot 3s, taking nearly 35% of their FGAs behind the line last season, but their conversion rate (31.5%, #282) thwarted their efforts. If the PSU game is a guide, they intend to pursue this strategy against their opponents again this season. But given they converted about 21% of their attempts, the strategy may yield no better results this season. Penn's defense was slightly better in 2009, ranked #231 (about 40 spots higher than their offense) out of approximately 336 D1 teams. Ironically 3 point shot defense was their worst defensive feature. This could be a very big night for Corey Stokes and Taylor King.

Frontcourt vs frontcourt...
Penn has a stable of nine tweeners, all between 6-6 and 6-9 available for minutes. Senior 6-9 #4/#5 Andreas Schreiber (#13), a red shirt last season will most likely start next to 6-8 junior Jack Eggleston (#24, 30.2 mpg, 9.6 ppg, 5.9 rpg in 2009). Coach Miller started those two against Penn State, and Eggleston went on a tear, scoring 13 points on 5-6 shooting in 33 minutes. 6-7 junior Conor Turley (#, 6.9 mpg, 1.0 ppg, 1.6 rpg) logged 22 minutes scoring 8 points (6 of them at the free throw line) and grabbing 2 rebounds. 6-9 sophomore Mike Howlett (#23, 6.4 mpg, 1.4 ppg, 0.7 rpg -- 2009) battled injuries through much of his freshman season, logged 16 minutes and scored 4 points against Penn State.

Mouphtaou Yarou and Antonio Pena started in the front court versus Fairleigh Dickinson and there is no reason given their performance, to suggest they will not start again. I was a bit surprised to see Yarou start, as the staff almost always ease the freshmen into the rotation before allocating starts. The last freshman to start this early in his freshman season was Scottie Reynolds. After Yarou and Pena, the staff will look to give time to Taylor King, who joined with Corey Stokes to drop a stunning 7 of 8 3 point field goals on Kutztown in exhibition, and followed that with a 7 rebound 9 point performance against the Knights Friday. Behind King, expect to see the freshman, red shirt Maurice Sutton and true frosh Isaiah Armwood. The Villanova front court should give their Penn counterparts more than they can handle.

Backcourt vs backcourt...
Coach Miller will most likely start 6-1 Zach Rosen (#1, 31.1mpg, 8.1ppg, 4.9apg) at the point, paired with 6-4 Darren Smith (#5), a red shirt junior who has lost 2 seasons to a variety of injuries, at the #2. Given Coach Miller's up-tempo style, expect a third guard, 6-6 tweener Tyler Bernardini (#4, 29.4 mpg, 13.7 ppg, 4.0 rpg) to start on the wing. Bernardini was the Quakers' leading scorer last season, shooting from both the outside (39-122, 0.320) and inside (71-154, 0.461) last season. Bernardini accounted for 27.8% of the Quakers' shots when he was on the floor last season. And if his performance Friday at State College is an indicator, (4-8 in 17 minutes), he will continue to be the #1 option on offense this season. Two 6-6 juniors Rob Belcore (#30, 4.3 ppg, 1.8 rpg) and Dan Monckton (#2, 4.1 mpg, 0.3 ppg, 0.7 rpg), combined to take 33 minutes (27 to Belcore, 6 to Monckton) on the wing and back court. Beyond Belcore and Monckton, back court depth is very young, as Coach Miller has two freshmen, 5-9 Malcolm Washington (#11) out of Los Angeles and 6-3 Carson Sullivan (#20) out of Charlotte, NC available for minutes should the opportunity/need arise.

Coach Wright started Scottie Reynolds, and the Coreys, Fisher and Stokes, at the #2, #1 and #3 respectively. Reynolds logged an 8 point night versus the Knights, while Stokes shot out the lights with a 20 point performance on 6-12, 5-10 shooting. Fisher notched 13 points on a 4-9 (1-2) night. Depth will come from freshmen Maalik Wayns (6 points with 2 assists) and Dominic Cheek (8 points and 2 assists). Both freshmen saw 18 minutes against FDU -- expect them to see similar time against the Quakers.

Final Thoughts...
If the front court was tested in the FDU game, the back court and wing spots should face a good test in this contest. Coach Miller wants his Quakers to push the ball early and often. Poor field goal conversion rates undermined the up-tempo style as the team struggled to find open shots. If the 67 possession game versus Penn State was about "average" for last season, it was slow by the pace set in games played this opening weekend (possessions per team averages about 70 so far this season). Villanova would be happy to accommodate the brisker rate of play, using about 71 possessions versus FDU Friday night. Penn did not rebound well offensively in 2009, and the PSU game suggests this problem area may remain unaddressed.

Coach Wright employed a 10 man rotation against FDU. This appears to be the mode of operation through much of the OOC portion of the schedule. The question will be whether Armwood and Sutton will get join the other eight by logging double digit minutes. If Penn struggles with their shot in the Pavilion as they did in State College, both Sutton and Armwood will see action early.

Odds and Ends...
I will be doing a live, on site blog from the Pavilion Monday night during the game. If you have internet access, drop over to Rush the Court blog, say hello and participate.

Guest Contributor Ray Floriani: Report from the Rutgers - Marist Game

by Ray Floriani

PISCATAWAY, NJ- Rutgers posted a very workman like 74-67 victory in their season opener against Marist. Exactly a year to the day removed from a narrow win over this same Marist club. Well actually different as Red Foxes mentor Chucky Martin has virtually an entire new cast on board. The numbers in a 71 possession contest:


FTM
Eff.eFG%FGAOReb%TO%
Marist9448173120
Rutgers10450213116

Notes and Observations:
Rutgers wanted a faster paced contest and Marist was a willing opponent with their DDM offense. Thought Marist turnover rate was not that bad given new personnel and a opener on the road against Big East competition. Rutgers had an excellent TO rate which went a long way toward getting the win in this contest. Rejecting nine shots and negating the Marist inside game was also huge.

Equal opportunity -- A year ago Mike Rosario utilized 27% of Rutgers’ possessions. On virtually every night he had to. Against Marist, Rosario used 25% of the possessions and led the way fo the Scarlet Knights with 17 points. The scintillating soph, though, had help. Patrick Jackson, a 6-6 sophomore forward, who scored all of 10 points last year added 15 points. Gregory Echenique used his size advantage to add 13 points. Even Rosario commented that having adding consistent scoring threats makes Rutgers more dangerous and gives himself more freedom to roam.

Closing Out -- Rutgers still must put people away given the opportunity. The Scarlet Knights made a nice late first half run to go up 9. Marist cut it to four before a Rosario baseline drive at the buzzer gave Rutgers a 41-35 lead at intermission. In the second half Rutgers led by 16 before Marist came back to make it a three possession contest.

Game Management -- I liked an early time out by Rutgers coach Fred Hill. Marist led 12-9 (in 7 possessions) largely due to some lax defense by Rutgers. Hill called time out to address the situation and lack of defensive intensity over those first four minutes.

Senior Experience -- I loved the energy Hamady Ndiaye brought today. The 7 foot Rutgers senior came off the bench and made an immediate impact by blocking 6 shots. Echenique added 3 as for the 9 Rutgers rejections on the afternoon.

Rebuilding -- As noted Marist has a lot of new faces for second year coach Chucky Martin. One to especially keep an eye on is 6-7 freshman swingman Rob Johnson (effective outside -- 2-4 -- and in the paint -- 4-7) who finished with a game high 18 points while adding 6 boards. Marist did have balance with 4 players in double figures.

Attendance was 4,828.

Stat of note -- Seventy per cent of Rutgers’ field goals were assisted. They had 27 FGM, 19 assists. That added with a great TO rate spells outstanding ball movement.

Quotes: "I have to give Rutgers credit. They’re a good team and much improved from a year ago." - Marist coach Chucky Martin

"I don’t think the difference was any one person. The difference was our team. We got out and pushed the ball and controlled tempo." - Rutgers coach Fred Hill

Sunday, November 15, 2009

FDU Post Game -- About Last Knight...


The Wildcats opened their 2009-10 campaign with a victory over the Knights of Fairleigh Dickinson Universtiy at the Pavilion on Villanova's campus. The 'Cats showed some jitters and uncertainty in the first half, jumping out to a 10 point lead that threatened to steamroll the Knights. But FDU, with a bit of help from their big man, bfc Alvin Mofunanay, a former St. Joseph's Hawk (boy the Joe's could have used him last night...), who blocked 5 shots, dished 2 assists and grabbed two rebounds as junior pg Terence Grier (and big man Jamil Svrdlik) shot them back into the game. The Wildcats held a one point, 35-34, going into half-time.

VUHoops.com was first to file with their game recap. The Villanova Viewpoint blogger blames the tentative first half on Friday the 13th. I suspect it had more to do with 2nd fouls called on Reynolds and then Fisher which forced the staff into a rapid-fire substitution pattern that moved the two back court stars in and out with Wayns, Stokes and Cheek. The 'Cats missed 7 field goals attempts after Reynolds' 2nd foul; most likely the the substitutions combined different players that threw the offense out of synch. Chris over at IBBW posted a YouTube.com highlight film uploaded by a tech savvy Nova Nation fan with the promise to post later...today possibly. And the Villanovan Sports blogger posted his recap The Bleacher Report weighed in with a recap as well.

The traditional sources have all weighed in as well. SID Mike Sheridan posted another high quality recap/analysis, while the official website also posted an AP wire story. And there is the boxscore, which I waited until nearly 1:30 this morning to see. But was left with a poor ESPN substitute to ponder before I gave up and went to bed (such is the state of my Friday nights lately). The breakdown by halves

OpponentFairleigh Dickinson 
 1st2ndGame 
Pace34.737.372.0
 Offense Defense
1st2ndGame1st2ndGame
Rating100.9131.4116.798.172.484.8
eFG%40.354.347.752.234.042.7
TORate11.510.711.126.016.120.8
OR%32.042.937.016.717.417.1
FTA/FGA51.642.947.043.588.066.7
FTM/FGA32.331.431.843.540.041.7
ARate40.070.659.336.437.536.8
Blk%16.12.99.18.712.010.4
Stl%8.72.75.68.62.75.5
PPWS0.911.161.041.230.760.97
2FG%33.352.045.052.941.247.1
3FG%31.340.034.633.312.521.4
FT%62.573.367.7100.045.562.5
%2FG28.653.142.952.951.952.5
%3FG42.924.532.117.611.114.8
%FT28.622.425.029.437.032.8

The locker room session at the half must have helped scrape the rust off of the 'Cat offense and defense. 1st half offensive and defensive ratings reflected the nip-and-tuck nature of the contest. Villanova's poor shot efficiency (40.3) was offset by their low turnover rate (11.5) and their propensity to get to the free throw line. Defensively, the Knights converted their shots at what should have been a game leading rate (52.2), but their conversion advantage over the 'Cats was negated by a very high turnover rate (26.0) and extremely poor offensive rebounding (16.7). FDU's lack of board presence, manifest in 2009 continues into 2010 it seems. The 2nd half 22 point explosion was powered by improvements on both sides of the ball. The Wildcat's shot efficiency improved by 14%, even as they continued to hold their turnovers down. An 11% improvement on their offensive boards was significant. If the jump in offensive rating was impressive, their defensive rating improved by a nearly equal amount (25%), traceable to much improved shot defense. Their step back on forcing turnovers and putting the Knights on the free throw line were not enough for the Knights to close the scoring gap.

Notes & Observations
1. The Wildcats rebounded very well on both sides of the ball, for both halves (note the green highlight above). While the Knights have not been particularly good on the boards the past few seasons, the 'Cats, having held them to <20% on their offensive boards with a freshman/transfer heavy front court, have to feel very encouraged.
2. The improvement in the assist rate, 1st to 2nd half, may also account for the overall improvement in the conversion rate for 2 and 3 point field goal attempts (note the green highlighted numbers beside the assist rate, 2 and 3 FG%). The improved conversion rate also raises a cause-effect question with respect to the point mix. Note (deeper yellow highlights) seeming reversal in percentage of points scored from inside and outside the arc. Did improvements in the 2 point conversion rate trigger the shift, or did improvement in 3 point shooting force FDU to reshuffle it's defense (and open up the low post)? FDU's drop off in their block rate (Blk% -- see the yellow highlight) suggest a drop off in the low post defense (and in turn trigger more inside play)?

Roster Notes
1. Isiaih Armwood logged in for a minute (or so) of play near the end of regulation. There were preseason suggestions that Armwood would red shirt this season, but playing during garbage time suggests he may play (and contribute?) this season.

Saturday, November 14, 2009

Guest Contributor Ray Floriani: Report from the Seton Hall - St. Peter's Game

by Ray Floriani

NEWARK, NJ- Maybe this can be chalked up to Friday the 13th. St.Peter's appeared to be on the brink of a notable upset when Eugene Harvey took a pass and launched an on the run buzzer beating trey that found nothing but net to give Seton Hall a 53-51 opening night victory. Wesley Jenkins' jumper had given St.Peter's a 51-50 lead with three seconds remaining. The numbers from the Rock in a 66 possession contest :

Eff.eFG%FT ProdOReb%TO%
St. Peter's77394 (4-10)4026
the Hall80416 (6-11)2823

As Seton Hall coach Bobby Gonzalez noted, St.Peter's did a good job controlling tempo. Seton Hall would have preferred a game in the high 70s possession wise but they could never force the pace. Gonzalez made a good point noting St.Peter's had 17 turnovers but only six came off steals. Simply, the Hall was ready to run on turnovers but only generated a half dozen of the type you can run on. The remainder of St.Peter's turnovers were the traveling, throwing the ball out of bounds or stepping on the line variety.

Credit Jay Wright with an assist. Yes, the Villanova mentor. Three seconds remained with the Hall down one and with the ball being inbounded on their own baseline. Gonzalez ran his "Villanova Scottie Reynolds play". "We got the play from Jay Wright," Gonzalez said. "It is the play Reynolds used to defeat Pitt in the regionals last year. " Gonzalez went on to explain the Hall had a special play for the right side of the floor but "Villanova" gave them an attack to use on the left. It worked. Assist to Jay Wright.

Eugene Harvey did not start but paced the Pirates with 16 points. Gonzalez said that his senior guard missed several practices with a thigh injury so he went with Jordan Theodore in the starting lineup. The coaching cliche tells us "it is not who starts but who finishes". Harvey logged 32 minutes and added 6 rebound and four assists along with his 16 points. Not to mention his own spectacular finish.

Jeremy Hazell struggled through a 2 point game. Hazell shot 0 for 10 from the floor. St.Peter's, in Gonzalez's assessment, "...did a great job switching and not giving him (Hazell) room." A shooter with a virtual green light, once Hazell missed his first few the Pirate junior began rushing and forcing his shots. Again, St.Peter's had a lot to do with that.

Herb Pope turned in a really solid performance in his first game as a Pirate. The New Mexico State transfer scored 6 points, had 7 boards, 6 assists and 4 blocks in 35 minutes.

St.Peter's did a really nice job running some screens and rolls and a few backdoor sets. John Dunne's club did not come in tentative. Jenkins led the Pirates with 16 points while lead guard Nick Leon did a fine job adding 13 points, 4 assists while pulling down 7 rebounds. St.Peter's competed and did an especially sound job on the offensive glass. St.Peter's outrebounded the bigger Pirates 43-35 but their offensive rebounding edge of 17-10 (reflected in the offensive rebounding percentage) was a cause of concern for Gonzalez.

Gonzalez wanted to go inside more on offense but that plan didn?t materialize. "John Garcia got called for a few walks and they (St.Peter's) broke up a few inside passes," the Hall mentor said. "We just got tentative about going inside." Still, the aforementioned Garcia finished with 9 points and a team leading 10 rebounds.

Attendance was 7,001.

Halftime stat of note:

FT Prod
St. Peter's2 (2-2)
the Hall0 (0-0)

That is no misprint. Peter's was 2of 2 while the Hall did not attempt a free throw the first twenty minutes.

Quotes: "St. Peter's set the tempo and played how they wanted. Early in the year I'm just happy to get a win against anybody. Anybody." - Seton Hall coach Bobby Gonzalez

"I told our guys all week let's get ourselves in a position to compete with five minutes to go. And we were right there." - St.Peter's coach John Dunne

Thursday, November 12, 2009

Preview -- Fairleigh Dickinson University

Opening Knights?
The Wildcats and Knights will open their 2009-10 season(s) on Friday evening at Villanova's Pavilion. If this season holds great promise for the Wildcats, it seems decidedly less so for the Knights. The Fairleigh Dickinson squad enters the game down 2, having lost the program's first head coach, Richard Holub, who passed away in early August at the age of 88, and their head coach, Tom Green, who was dismissed early last June. Coach Green and his Knights struggled to a second consecutive losing season in 2009, a #10 place Northeast Conference finish that followed their #8 finish in 2008 (tie-breakers kept them out of the NEC Tournament). If Coach Green's termination was odd (he was after all, the winningest coach in FDU history, voted NEC coach of the year twice, and honored twice as Coach of the Year by the NJ Sports Writers), AD David Langford's timing was even stranger. Langford dismissed the 26 year head coach on June 5th, over six weeks after the beginning of the spring signing period, too late in the fire/hire cycle to conduct an extensive search for a replacement. Langford looked to Coach Green's 2009 staff, and tabbed younger (and better connected?) Assistant Coach, Greg Vetrone, to guide the program as the interim coach for 2009-10. Villanova and Fairleigh Dickinson have played twice before (1999 and 2000), both decisions going to Villanova by double digit margins...

What Others Say...
...With four returning starters, it is no surprise that Blue Ribbon rates the Knight's backcourt at B, the frontcourt at B and the bench/depth at C+. But Blue Ribbon also predicts a #9 conference finish for FDU. The reason? Blue Ribbon suggested that Coach Vetrone will address the Knight's lack of defense under Green (Pomeroy ranked the Knights' defense #323 out of 344 in D1 last season). Rush the Court (and Villanova by the Numbers contributor...) Ray Floriani projected a #6 place finish for the Knights in his NEC Preview...the low standing a possible after effect of Tom Green's dismissal? Coach Vetrone will put a veteran lineup on the floor, but will they draw on their shared experience as a team and play with each other?

Why Everyone Believes...
...The feeling around the program (and the AD's office) was that the team had talent, but chemistry and motivation issues held the team back in Green's last two seasons. Coach Vetrone will work to get everyone of the senior-led squad members on the same page and working together to realize the promise that each has individually (and inconsistently) demonstrated over the past two seasons. The squad is one of the NEC's most experienced going into this season, improvement over the previous two seasons is expected.

So Far...
The Knights did not see March last season, ending play on the last day of February with a 79-58 loss to NEC foe St. Francis (PA). Villanova lost 83-69, in the national semifinals of the NCAA, to eventual champion North Carolina. The 'Cats come into this game off a 26 point exhibition win over the D2 Kutztown Bearcats last Friday. Fairleigh tuned up with a 19 point exhibition win (80-61) versus Molloy College (of Hyslip, NY), in Coach Vetrone's first game as a D1 Head Coach.

Fairleigh Dickinson By the Numbers...
The Knight's RPI over the past 5 years has ranged from the mid 100's (#141) down to the low 300's (#314). The last two seasons of Coach Green's tenure saw the FDU slump to the high 200s/low 300s. Fairleigh Dickinson was a higher than average pace team last season (69.2 possessions, adjusted, via Ken Pomeroy's Fairleigh Dickinson Scout Page which ranked the Knights #62 out of approx. 344 - the adjusted average pace was 66.5). Fairleigh Dickinson's field goal efficiency (eFG) was a disastrous 45.7% (#292) while their defense for shots was very suspect (53.0, #320). Those shot numbers, combined with rebounds (ranked #208 offensively, #335 defensively), suggest a team that struggled with communication and consistent effort on the court.

Frontcourt vs frontcourt...
If the Knight's starting #4 looks vaguely familiar to you, relax, you know him from seasons' past. The seniors should recognize 6-8 senior Alvin Mofunanya (#55, 9.0 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 2.0 bpg), a transfer from Big 5 rival St. Joseph's who started for Coach Green last season. Two returning players 6-8 junior Kamil Svrdlik (#44, 6.9 ppg, 3.5 rpg, 1.3 bpg) and 6-9 (250 pound) junior John Galvin (#50, 5.9 ppg, 5.3 rpg) split the starts & PT last season. 6-9 junior DeJuan Pursley (#52), back from a year of inactivity, returns to add depth and another big body to the rotation. 7-2 senior Lawrence Brown (#35, 2.7 mpg, 0.4 ppg) and 6-7 redshirt freshman Anaclet Mbayi (#33) will add depth to the Green Knight rotation.

If the Kutztown exhibition is a reliable guide, Villanova will start junior Antonio Pena alongside freshman Mouphtaou Yarou at the #4/#5. Wing Corey Stokes will start at the #3, though Stokes and Pena will most likely switch on defense as the situation demands. Look for Taylor King off the bench early if the staff wants to test the Green Knight's 3 point defense (FDU was ranked #311 in D1 last season). Red shirt freshman Maurice Sutton and freshman Dominic Cheek may see action early if Yarou encounters foul trouble. FDU's experienced front court contingent should provide a good test for the Wildcat's freshmen-heavy cohort. Speculation abounds about the status of freshman Isaiah Armwood -- will the staff red shirt him or put him in the rotation this season? An appearance by the freshman would be a bolster to those who believe he will not red shirt.

Backcourt vs backcourt...
The Knights will match Villanova's back court with a pair of experienced guards. JUCO point guard Mike Scott (#12, 8.5 ppg) out of the College of Eastern Utah will likely take the point while 6-3 Jean Bapitste (#30, 16.3 ppg, 5.9 rpg), possibly the NEC's best player, starting at the off guard spot. Baptiste (79.6% of the PT at his position) logged massive playing time last season -- Pomeroy ranked him in the Top 350 for playing time. That no doubt degraded Baptiste's effectiveness at times late last season. Baptiste took > 50% of FDU's possessions when they played together, though Baptiste took 28.2% of the shots when he was on the floor. Scott logged a freshman year at Texas Christian before heading out to Utah. The FDU offense will go through those two. Coach Vetrone indicated Baptiste participated in an off season conditioning program to build up his stamina, and the coach will try to enlarge the back court rotation to provide Baptiste some in game rest. Expect an early call to go out to returning players 5-11 junior Terence Grier (#1, 7.9 ppg, 3.2 rpg) and 6-0 sophomore Sam Fernley (#10, 2.1 ppg, 0.7 rpg). Coach Vetrone can also look to 5-11 freshman DeShawn Dockery (#21, cousin of former Dookie Sean Dockery) and 5-10 freshman Louis Larizza (#22, Port Chester, NY).

Coach Wright will counter with senior guard Scottie Reynolds and junior point guard Corey Fisher to start in the Villanova back court, along with junior Corey Stokes to start on the wing, as Coach Wright will most likely favor a 3 guard look. Freshman guard Malik Wayns will get an early call -- expect him to log double digit minutes in relief of Fisher and Reynolds. Freshman Dominic Cheek will also see the court.

Final Thoughts...
This game will pit strength against strength - back court versus back court. I expect Villanova to dominate enough to win this by a double digit margin. The front court struggle should be the most interesting matchup in this contest, however. The 'Cats may have more talent, but FDU will counter with a lot of experience in the form of bigger, heavier bodies. If Yarou struggles with fouls as he did in Nova's exhibition game with Kutztown, the fans may see the staff experiment with line ups of different sizes and shapes. Putting King next to Pena will concede a few inches to FDU, but it will force them to stretch their defense to account for the extra bombers. The front court number to watch here is rebounds. FDU has the size/experience advantage, but the Knights were among the poorest defensive rebounders in D1 (#335) last season, and were not especially strong (#208) on the offensive side either. If the game is competitive throughout, the staff may show the rotation they will favor for the season. But the staff went ten deep for the Kutztown game, and will most likely do the same here if the players get FDU under control early. Numbers to watch, rebounding aside, will be minutes. Who gets how much given the player match-ups, may provide an early forecast on the rotation come the Big East season. Getting subs some playing time has been traditionally valued by the staff and (by tradition) a priority in the early season games.

Roster Notes...
Villanova -- Eligibility issues apparently settled, bfc Mouphtaou Yarou is slated to play for the Wildcats. Yarou started the exhibition game (versus Kutztown) last Friday. Scottie Reynolds tweaked his ankle early in the week and sat out Tuesday's practice. He is expected to be ready Friday. Senior guard/forward Reggie Redding is suspended for the fall semester.
Fairleigh Dickinson -- Senior point guard Cameron Tyler who started next to Jean Baptiste and logged even more minutes in 2009 than the Knight's most prolific scorer, is benched for the fall semester with academic issues. He will not play.