Monmouth Post Game -- King Rice's Debut

Opening Night
Monmouth cashiered 13 year head coach Dave Calloway last spring, the culmination of a frustrating five year run of sub 0.500 seasons. Calloway's successor, King Rice, racked up 19 years through four stops before picking up the reins at Monmouth. His first order of business was fulfilling a return date obligation to Villanova, the result of a (nearly...) Christmas Eve game at Monmouth last season. The Wildcats' downed the Hawks in 36 point, 106-70 rout highlighted by a career-high 27 points by junior wing Dominic Cheek, nearly matched by a career-high 24 points by junior center Mouphtaou Yarou. The 106 point outburst was the second most scored in opening night game, a distinction I am sure Rice will remember.

The University site posted their AP wire story. The official website also posted the boxscore, thank heaven. The breakdown by halves

Opponent	Monmouth
	1st	2nd	Game
Pace	37.8	41.9	79.6
	Offense				Defense
	1st	2nd	Game		1st	2nd	Game
Rating	145.7	121.8	133.1		90.1	85.9	87.9
eFG%	61.8	65.6	63.6		50.0	34.8	42.2
TORate	18.5	21.5	20.1		21.2	19.1	20.1
OR%	58.8	31.3	45.5		21.1	26.9	24.4
FTA/FGA	41.2	37.5	39.4		19.4	51.5	35.9
FTM/FGA	38.2	28.1	33.3		9.7	39.4	25.0
ARate	64.7	57.9	61.1		57.1	77.8	65.2
Blk%	14.7	9.4	12.1		6.5	6.1	6.3
Stl%	13.3	9.6	11.3		7.9	14.3	11.3
PPWS	1.35	1.35	1.35		1.00	0.88	0.93
2FG%	52.9	62.5	58.5		73.3	22.2	45.5
3FG%	47.1	50.0	48.0		18.8	33.3	25.8
FT%	92.9	75.0	84.6		50.0	76.5	69.6
%2FG	32.7	58.8	45.3		64.7	22.2	42.9
%3FG	43.6	23.5	34.0		26.5	41.7	34.3
%FT	23.6	17.6	20.8		8.8	36.1	22.9

This one is very simple -- just a sea of green (positive stats) on both sides of the ball. If there is room for improvement, look to the Hawks' first half shot efficiency (eFG%), a strong 50% based entirely on an 11-14 two point conversion rate, and largely offset by a brutal 3-15 three point conversion rate. A 51.5% free throw rate (FTA/FGA) in the second half may well be credited to a lead that fluctuated between 20 and 40 points through virtually the entire second half. Especially strong on the night, offensive shot efficiency and rebounding -- at both ends of the court.

Half Time Adjustments
If the Wildcats' scorching offense, responsible for nearly 1.5 points per possession, cooled off a bit in the second half, the 'Cats were able to turn up their defense, holding the Hawks to an even tighter 0.86 points per possession defense, down over 0.024 points per possession over their first half. Those looking for a clue on the relative importance of shot efficiency (eFG%) versus the other three factors -- offensive rebounding rate (OR%), turnover rate (TO%) and defensive fouling (FTA/FGA) can come to only one conclusion -- that the eFG% is the strongest determinant of the defensive efficiency rating. Though Monmouth registered improved numbers in turnovers, rebounding and getting to the line, their conversion efficiency declined due entirely to the dramatic decline in shot efficiency (eFG%).


Notes & Observations
1. A worrisome 40% possession rate by point guard Maalik Wayns was much lower versus the Hawks (25.2%), accompanied by an improved offensive efficiency rating for the junior point guard (109.7).
2. The staff emptied the bench, running all 12 rostered players through the game at one point or another. The juniors and James Bell logged at least 60% of the allocated time, with JayVaughn Pinkston getting a 21 minutes run (53.5% of the available minutes on the wing).
3. Markus Kennedy's promising outing lasted a too brief 16 minutes, due no small part to the four fouls he picked up...that's about one every four minutes.

Coaching Carousal, Part 2011-02

Early Casualties...
Wyoming's ex-coach Heath Schroyer may hold the dubious distinction of being the first coach let go in the 2011 firing/hiring cycle, having been terminated nearly three weeks ago, but the cycle kicked off in earnest this weekend as two more coaches, both from low major conference programs, were fired or resigned under duress. Schroyer's fate was largely sealed in 2010 when his Cowboy squad stepped back from their 19-14 record of 2009 that included a post season appearance in the CBI tournament. The 2010 squad finished with a 10-21 record and Schroyer had to hear the (not so quiet?) whispers from a fan-base that was not especially happy that he was the hire that replaced Steve McClain in 2007. Employing Dan Hanner's adjusted net efficiency comparison to Wyoming under Schroyer and under Schroyer's predecessor, Steve McClain (over McClain's last four seasons -- that is all the data available at Ken Pomeroy's web site), Schroyer's regime was largely a failure. Hired in the aftermath of McClain's termination for cause (the coach failed to graduate enough players to avoid NCAA sanctions), Wyoming fans believed Schroyer, who had a previous relationship with Wyoming AD Tom Burman, was not the best available candidate. If he was not a fan favorite in 2007, his track record in Laramie through February 2011, did not win over any fence sitters...

	Average Adj.
Coach	Offense	Defense	Diff.
Schroyer 2008-11	99.2	102.8	-3.6
McClain 2004-07	103.8	97.8	5.9

Though Steve McClain coached at Wyoming from 1998-99 through 2006-07, Ken Pomeroy's records go back to only 2003-04 season. The Wyoming post Schroyer fan-base openly pines for Billy Clyde Gillispie, cast-off by the Kentucky Wildcats.

The Second In Season Termination
Steton's Derek Waugh was offered another job in the Athletic Department as part of an agreement to not return to the bench next season. He coached the last two weeks of the season after the announcement, finishing his tenure on a high note with a 70-62 win over Jacksonville. The Stetson graduate who originally left a law practice to join the Stetson staff as an assistant coach, logged a 121-192 record over a 10 year head coaching career.

It's Lefty's Fault...
Dan Hanner's notion that mid major schools tend to be more patient with coaches seems to be tested by Georgia State's handling of Rod Barnes. Neither Barnes nor his predecessor Michael Perry managed to earn an NCAA invitation for the Colonial Athletic Association school, and neither had a run that lasted more than five years at the Atlanta, Georgia-based school. Barnes could claim a Pyhrrhic victory of sorts in that his net efficiency (adjusted) is 0.3 better than Perry.

	Average Adj.
Coach	Offense	Defense	Diff.
Barnes 2008-11	96.3	102.3	-6.1
Perry 2004-07	101.7	106.0	-6.4

Apparently that was not good enough to retain the veteran coach who was terminated after the Panthers' last game, a 58-65 loss to George Mason on Sunday. Barnes, despite having a five year contract and having addressed the Panthers' academic problems, was fired because "...The won-loss record simply does not reflect where we want to be for Georgia State men’s basketball...We felt it was in the best interest of the program to make this change now and begin moving forward immediately." according to Athletic Director Cheryl Levick. What accounts for that very unmid major-like set of expectations from Levick? Lefty Dreisell's five-plus year tenure with the Panthers may hold the key. The well traveled coach moved over to GSU from James Madison in 1997-98 and delivered four first place finishes in his five full seasons at GSU. He took the Panthers to the post season twice during his run, once to the NCAA and once to the NIT. Dreisell, flamboyant yet successful everywhere he coached, posted a 103-59 record over his five-plus tenure with the Panthers. Neither of the two coaches to follow have posted a winning record with the school, nor made it to the post season. Has the legendary coach set a standard too high for his successors? Maybe it's the culture of the school, the Panthers have had 10 different coaches over the 37 years the school has fielded a Division 1 men's program.

Monmouth's Dave Calloway, another veteran coach popular with the locals, struggled through five consecutive losing seasons at this Monmouth County New Jersey school, but stepped down by request the day after the Hawks finished their season (with a loss to Sacred Heart). Calloway, who led Monmouth to the NCAAs three times over the course of his 14 year career could not overcome the 48-105 record accumulated over the last five seasons; a record that included missing the NEC Tournament for the second season running.

By the Numbers
The termination side of the cycle will kick up as the conference tournaments wind down. As those programs least likely to participate in the post season assess the past season pink slips will begin to circulate in earnest. The number of terminations by Selection Sunday can provide a very rough estimate of the total number in this cycle. Over the past four off seasons, between 26% and 42% of the vacancies were opened before the NCAA field was seeded. Multiply the job openings on Selection Sunday (wait until Monday, there may be a few slipped inconspicuously into the news cycle on Saturday and Sunday) by two, and you should have a sense of the floor for this off season job market.

Monmouth Post Game: An Early Christmas Gift

An Evening in South Jersey
What can anyone say about a 76-36 win? I guess the coach summed it up nicely with "I like where we are right now".

The Athletic Department website posted the official boxscore and the AP wire story, "No. 8 Villanova Cruises to Easy 76-36 Win Over Monmouth", took a break from the negative tone of the past three games. I am confident the Philadelphia press will find something wrong with the Wildcats' performance. And if they do not, then they will complain about scheduling soft opponents. The breakdown by halves...

Opponent:	Monmouth University
	1st	2nd	Game
Pace	35.0	33.0	68.0
	Offense				Defense
	1st	2nd	Game		1st	2nd	Game
Rating	125.8	96.9	111.8		48.6	57.6	53.0
eFG%	65.5	46.6	56.0		25.0	28.0	26.5
TORate	11.4	15.1	13.2		17.2	21.2	19.1
OR%	12.5	26.3	20.0		14.8	20.0	17.0
FTA/FGA	34.5	34.5	34.5		50.0	36.0	43.1
FTM/FGA	20.7	17.2	19.0		15.4	20.0	17.6
ARate	41.2	75.0	55.2		66.7	57.1	61.5
Blk%	3.4	0.0	1.7		15.4	0.0	7.8
Stl%	2.8	11.9	7.2		11.7	15.5	13.5
PPWS	1.30	0.95	1.13		0.53	0.65	0.59
2FG%	72.2	50.0	61.1		35.7	38.9	37.5
3FG%	36.4	27.3	31.8		8.3	0.0	5.3
FT%	60.0	50.0	55.0		30.8	55.6	40.9
%2FG	59.1	56.3	57.9		58.8	73.7	66.7
%3FG	27.3	28.1	27.6		17.6	0.0	8.3
%FT	13.6	15.6	14.5		23.5	26.3	25.0

We will dispense with the green highlighting this time. Just assume that what is not red highlighted is green. There appeared to be a pronounced drop off in efficiencies the second half. The 44-17 scoring gap in the first half may have had something to do with that.

Notes & Observations
1. For the second straight game the staff emptied the bench, using 11 players in all. Eight of the 11 players logged 10 or more minutes apiece, a strong suggestion that the Wildcats controlled the game early.
2. Corey Fisher again led the 'Cats, this time posting 20 points on overall shooting of 8-10 (1-3, 7-7) and 3-3 from the line. The senior guard had a five rebound night for the second consecutive game, even as he dished five dimes (and had a single turnover).
3. Three other 'Cats, Corey Stokes (19), Maalik Wayns (11) and center Mouphtaou Yarou (14) also scored double digit points. The offense went through those four for the most part, with Stokes and Yaour being the first options (when each was on the court) with Wayns and Fisher as second options.
4. Antonio Pena may have had a quiet (but efficient) scoring night, he was a vacuum cleaner on the defensive boards, scooping up 34% of the defensive boards when he was in the game. .
5. The walk-on Dallas Ouano logged five minutes recording a steal and a turnover.
6. Freshman James Bell played for 21 minutes as he continues to get into game shape. The wing went 1-5 (0-3, 1-2) without getting to the line.

Guest Contributor Ray Floriani: Monmouth at FDU

by Ray Floriani

TEANECK, NJ - In the NEC’s battle of the Garden State, FDU defeated Monmouth 75-69 on Thursday. The efficiency and four factors in a 71 possession game (Monmouth 70 FDU 71):

			FTM
	ORtg	eFG%	FGA	OR%	TO%
Monmouth	99	40	28	32	13
FDU	106	56	24	20	17

Monmouth’s leading scorer Travis Taylor (16 PPG) sat out due to a suspension. Coach Dave Calloway refused to mention that and focused on defense or lack of it. The Hawks trailed 40-24 at the half. Calloway noted teams often start games slow offensively so scoring 24 first half points was not the problem. It was giving up 40 for the half and 75 for the game.

A tale of two halves. What the Dickens are those numbers?

	Off. Eff
	1st	2nd
Monmouth	73	122
FDU	121	92

FDU got out to a 17 of 29 shooting (66% eFG PCT) first half while Monmouth struggled at 7 of 29 (28% eFG). Again, as Calloway noted it was simply poor defense on the part of his ball club. FDU also had only 5 turnovers for an outstanding 15% Turnover Rate (TO%). Basically, the Knights were getting their money’s worth and full use of 85% of their possessions the first half.

In guards we trust.
FDU’s backcourt did the most damage. Sean Baptiste led all scorers with 27 points while grabbing an impressive 10 rebounds. Mike Scott added 20 and was 7 of 7 from the line. In total, the guards accounted for 59 or 79% of the FDU points. “we let them get to the rim especially in transition,” Calloway said. “That’s something we could not allow.”

Calloway also pushed the pace more, realizing that a walk it up the floor approach doesn’t work when you are down 16 points and the clock is ticking. Monmouth entered the game averaging 64 possessions in NEC play. The first half was on schedule at 33 possessions. The final half the possessions increased to 37 for the reasons noted. Scoring wise Whitney Coleman had 14 second half (18 for the game) points. Inside Nick DelTufo got free for nine of his 13 on the night.

Momentum is funny.
Monmouth got it to a two possession game in the stretch but never could draw even which was a key factor for FDU. “I was clock watching,” admitted FDU coach Greg Vetrone. “Give Monmouth credit. They made adjustments and took away a few things we did the first half. They made it tougher for Baptiste to get good looks the second half.”

FDU shot 4 of 16 for three on the night. They did a good job in transition and attacking the basket with an impressive 64% (25 of 39) two point field goal percentage. FDU enjoyed a 36-20 points in the paint advantage. Another factor was improvement in the TO category. FDU entered the game with a 22% Turnover Rate in NEC games. Their 17% mark was truly impressive especially considering they were willing and able to get out and run.

Monmouth had a better FT Rate (FTA/FGA). Both teams got to the line over 20 times but the Hawks took better advantage of their trips. Monmouth shot 18 of 26 while FDU was 13 of 21.

FDU had a big 24-7 edge in bench scoring. That was sort of deceptive as Scott did not start but scored 20 points while logging 36 minutes of PT.

Monmouth is 7-16 (6-5 in NEC). FDU got off to a rocky non-league start and is 10-13 overall and 6-5 in NEC. By a quirk in schedule the return meeting for these two clubs is less than 48 hours away as they tip off at noon Saturday at Monmouth.

The Codey Trophy.
To commemorate the NEC ‘Battle of New Jersey’ this was instituted in 2008. The school that records the best record for the two men’s and women’s games is the yearly recipient of the trophy. If the records are tied the winner is determined by point totals. FDU captured the award in 2008 and ‘09. The award is named after FDU alumnus (‘81) Richard Codey a former Senate leader who twice served as New Jersey’s acting governor.

“We gave up too many points especially for this time in February. We just did not get stops when we needed them. We simply did not get it done defensively.” - Monmouth coach Dave Calloway

“I used the schoolyard approach where the first team to score eight stays and keeps playing. I told our guys the first team to 70 wins. I did not feel they (Monmouth) were capable of getting 70.” - FDU coach Greg Vetrone

The Codey Trophy
NEC Battle of New Jersey

Guest Contributor Ray Floriani: ESPN's 24 Hours of Basketball, St. Peter's-Monmouth Recap

by Ray Floriani

JERSEY CITY, NJ -- A 6 am start, as part of the ESPN marathon, made for a unique setting. Beyond the excitement, all night activities and pre-game breakfast for the students who were absolutely pumped up, was a very good showing on the defensive end by St.Peter’s. St. Peter's and their cross state rival Monmouth University competed in a 63 possession game.

	Offn.
	Eff.
Monmouth	54
St. Peter's	92

The Four Factors:

		FTM
	eFG%	FGA	OReb%	TO%
Monmouth	23	26	30	29
St. Peter's	51	16	29	27

The 6 am hour was forgotten as, immediately after the tip, both clubs engaged with emotion and intensity. The first half saw St.Peter’s leading 27-16. At intermission it was a 33 possession tempo with John Dunne’s club showing their defensive prowess. Turnover rates were rather high. Chalk it up to defense rather than the 6 am tipoff. Effective field goal percentage shows how well St.Peter’s defended. Monmouth started slowly.

	Offn.
	Eff.
Monmouth	49
St. Peter's	82

I didn’t expect the Hawks to post an under 50 in offensive efficiency for the 1st half, but the second half was not much better for the Northeast Conference representatives. St.Peter’s man to man contested the perimeter. 6-8 sophomore Travis Taylor, Monmouth's primary inside threat, was faced by collapsing defenders to the verge of frustration. The Hawks shot 4 of 22 (18%) the first half. On the afternoon -- excuse me morning -- they were 10 of 47 from the field (21%). Taylor led all scorers with 12 points while Wesley Jenkins paced a balanced Peacock attack with 10 points.

Basketball at 6 am is an almost surreal experience. Arriving at just after 5 am to find a charged up, high energy atmosphere. Departing after interviews, around 8:30, I found the campus as quiet as a church, commuters, on their way to work mingled with students on their way to classes. Truly an experience. For players, coaches, fans...all involved.

"We played three emotional games in five days but give St.Peter’s defense credit. They were awfully good.” –Monmouth Coach Dave Calloway

“I’m really excited right now but in a few hours I’ll be tired. I had every alarm in the house go off at 3 am this morning.” – St.Peter’s coach John Dunne

Monmouth Post Game: Keep Away Games

The first season my son played travel soccer we found ourselves somewhere in Central Jersey facing another first year travel team that was clearly struggling. Our guys took a 2-0 lead into the half, but came out on fire from the coach's halftime talk. They quickly score 4 more goals (as we could see the life drain from the faces of the other team's players...), and the coach pulled his forwards and then calling to the team, reversed his cap. The pace changed instantly. Our guys passed on open shots and instead swung the ball to the other side of the field (or "heeled" it to a trailing teammate). "What's going on?" I asked another parent. "Coach called keep away" he responded, "He doesn't want to run up the score. Not good for the kids and the league frowns on it"...I wasn't at the game last night, but I wonder if, at the 15 minute mark of the second half (about 25 minutes into the game...) if Coach Wright didn't reverse his cap (or do whatever he does to signal the 'Cats to ease up).

Looks like Tim over at Nova News Blog beat out the bloggers over a I Bleed Blue and White Blog in the race to post, with his "Nova Owns Monmouth" entry. The IBBW guys posted a good recap, "Villanova Blasts Monmouth". That was the only undetermined (and most competitive) element of this game after Nova won the tipoff. For the record, NN blew out IBBW by nearly 2 hours. And Tim provided another entertaining and informative summary/highlight of the game.

The Philadelphia media did an excellent job containing their enthusiasm for the Wildcats. "The only thing that really counted was, nobody else on Villanova's injury-plagued basketball team got hurt..." intoned Mike Kern over at the PDN. His recap, "Villanova cruises to healthy win over Monmouth", continued the "health" theme from the headline into the story's first paragraph. Kern provided a compact summary of the important points (including post game quotes). Worth a look. The Inky's Joe Juliano provided a more thoughtful piece in his "Villanova torches Monmouth". Juliano wove a series of post game quotes into the narrative of the recap, thus he provided context for a number of the staff's post game observations. The official website has the usual AP recap and post game notes (complements of Mike Sheridan?), along with the official box score. The breakdown by halves:

Opponent	Monmouth
	1st	2nd	Game
Pace	32.6	30.1	62.7
	Offense				Defense
	1st	2nd	Game		1st	2nd	Game
Rating	135.2	87.0	112.4		40.7	115.8	77.2
eFG%	59.7	41.1	50.8		26.2	56.5	42.0
TORate	12.0	26.8	19.0		31.3	16.5	24.1
OR%	40.0	42.1	41.2		0.0	21.4	10.0
FTA/FGA	29.0	14.3	22		9.5	47.8	29.5
FTM/FGA	25.8	10.7	18.6		9.5	39.1	25.0
ARate	62.5	60.0	61.5		80.0	60.0	66.7
Blk%	0.0	10.7	5.1		0.0	4.3	2.3
Stl%	9.0	13.4	11.1		18.8	9.9	14.5
PPWS	1.28	0.87	1.09		0.59	1.24	0.96

Coach Wasn't Exaggerating...About the Defense
"I thought we played a great first half, our best of the season...There was attention to detail. I would have liked to have seen us come out in the second half and keep our concentration longer..."
-- Jay Wright, 11/25/08 on the Monmouth game.

The Wildcats have posted better offensive numbers for three other halves this season (proof this schedule has no strength?), but for defense, the 40.7 defensive rating posted by the Wildcats (that means the Hawks scored on average, less than ½ point per possession), there has been none better, by far. This might be the best half of defense in the past 3 seasons. I have highlighted (in green...) those cells of interest. Hawk shooting collapsed (eFG% above) -- they managed a 3 point-like 5-21 on all FGAs that half. Note also the turnovers. As suggested in my preview, the Hawks are turnover prone, especially (though not exclusively) via steals. The table above notes Monmouth lost nearly 1 in 3 of their possessions in the first half, more than ½ of them (18.8 -- see Stl%) from steals. But the rebounding grabbed my attention. The 'Cats did not allow an offensive board in the first half. Considering how poorly the Hawks shot, that is a good many opportunities.

Notes & Observations
1. Shane Clark logged another very quiet, but very efficient game from the field. He maintains an eye-popping 81.2 eFG% and 1.67 PPWS. He was 4-4 (2-2, 2-2, 0-0) for 10 points against Monmouth. Clark's Poss% and Shot% point to a role player level involvement on offense (4th/5th option) going forward. Coming off the bench to inject some energy into the offense appears to be his niche this season.
2. Antonio Pena fouled out of his second consecutive game; troubling given the issues involving the other members of the front court.
3. Scottie and Corey Fisher had very inefficient nights again. Scottie was "saved by the line" versus Niagara, but this game exposed his recent poor run of field goal shooting. Scottie did get 3 steals, 6 rebounds and 4 assists. Versus Niagara Fish was able to compensate by grabbing a few rebounds (6 actually), dishing 4 assists and forcing 3 steals. But there was little to point to offensively (or defensively) in this game.

Ref Notes
The crew, Ed Corbett, Joe Lindsey and Frank Scagliotta, was well behaved tonight. Thirty total fouls, with a 26 free throws, combined, taken by both teams is among the lowest in three seasons.

Roster Notes
1. Monmouth's Whitney Coleman was injured in the Hawk's first game (obviously DNP last night) and is out for the season. As the Hawks leading scorer and acknowledged leader going into the season, his loss is especially hard felt.
2. Hawk point guard James Hett twisted his ankle at the 6 minute mark of the first half and did not return.
3. Villanova center Casiem Drummond was DNP coach's decision. Drum was suspended for the game and did not dress nor sit with the team. He is due to return to practice Wednesday.
4. Wildcat wing Corey Stokes played with his thumb taped for the second straight game. It apparently did not bother him as much as he returned to the starting lineup and scored 18 on 6-13 shooting.

Preview -- Monmouth

The Wildcats host the Monmouth University Hawks for the second preliminary round of The Philly Hoops Classic. The 'Cats and Hawks last met on St. Patrick's Day in 2006, an opening round game in the 2006 NCAAs which the Randy Foye led Villanova squad won by 13, 58-45. That game brought Villanova back to .500 in St. Patrick's Day games, (6-6). Villanova leads the series 5-0...

What Others Say...
... The Blue Ribbon Yearbook gives the backcourt a B, the frontcourt a C and the bench/depth a C+. Jeff over at the March Madness All Season Blog categorized Monmouth among the Northeast conference's "Rounding out the Pack" teams (his lowest designation) with this note:
...Monmouth does return four starters from last season, but the Hawks went just 7-24 overall. They do have a deep backcourt though, with all-conference candidate Whitney Coleman leading the way. Yaniv Simpson, James Hett and Alex Nunner also return on the perimeter. Nick DelTufo is the leader up front...
- 10/21/08, Northeast Conference Preview

The Blue Ribbon Yearbook picked the Hawks to finish #10 in the 11 member Northeast Conference (NEC). As the BRY noted, "...There is one big difference between those championship teams and the one [Head Coach Dave] Calloway takes into the 2008-09 season -- those teams were built to win right away while this year's group might be a year away from being a real contender..." The coaches of the NEC on the other hand, picked the Hawks to finish #9 in their NEC Media Day pre-season poll.

Why Everyone Believes...
...The Hawks return 4 of the 5 starters from last year's squad. Remember that despite last season's 7-24 record, head coach Dave Calloway has built a program that went to the NCAA tournament 3 of the past 6 seasons. Last season's leading scorer Jhamar Youngblood may have transferred out, but Coach Calloway believes that team chemistry this season will be better.

So Far...
Monmouth (NEC, 0-4, RPI #304) owns a 4 game losing streak to start this season. Their average margin of loss has been -16.5. Notable opponents include Rhode Island and Penn. Villanova puts a 3-0 record on the line -- their most recent effort, a 15 point win over Niagara (the first preliminary round of The Philly Hoops Classic), the most competitive game so far.

Frontcourt vs frontcourt...
...The Hawks return veteran sophomore Nick DelTufo (6-8, 225lbs), who started 24 games last season, who shares center duties with senior Shawn Barlow (6-11 250lbs) and junior Dutch Gaitley (6-9 225lbs). Gaitley, a graduate of Archbishop Carroll, has started 3 of the Hawks' 4 games this season with DelTufo taking the other game (versus Rhode Island). The Hawks added freshmen Mike Myers-Kitt (6-7, 180lbs) out of Waterbury, Connecticut and Travis Taylor (6-8, 200lbs) out of Union, NJ. Coach Hollaway believes those two newcomers have added athleticism, and indeed Myers-Kitt has stated all 4 games so far, shooting 16-34, including 5-13 from behind the line.

The Wildcats will counter with Dante Cunningham, Antonio Pena, Casiem Drummond, Shane Clark and Frank Tchuisi. Cunningham and Pena, starters in all three games coming into the Monmouth game, will most likely be called on to start again. Both are taking steps to restore balance to the 'Cats offense. Cunningham has put up some impressive numbers to date. His offensive rating is 121.5 with a PPWS of 1.41. Dante put up a career high 31 points on his way to a double-double versus Fordham. Pena has scored an average 10.0 for the three games so far, based largely on an eFG% of 78.6. Both fouled out of the Wildcats' game against Niagara. Tchuisi, Clark and Drummond, though limited by lingering injuries, have provided good minutes in substitution for Dante and Antonio.

Backcourt vs backcourt...
...Recognized as the strongest element of the team going into the season, the Hawks return seniors Whitney Coleman (6-3, 190lbs) & Alex Nunner (6-3, 185lbs), junior Yaniv Simpson (6-4, 210lbs) and sophomores James Hett (5-10, 175lbs -- listed as 6-0 on Monmouth's web site...), Kevin Schafer (6-3, 190lbs) and RJ Rutledge (6-5, 175lbs). Coleman came out of the Florida International game at the 9 minute mark and has not appeared in another game. Offense from the back court comes from Rutledge (volume) and Nunner (efficiency).

Villanova offers Scottie Reynolds and Corey Fisher in the back court, with Corey Stokes on the wing. Reggie Redding plugs in anywhere, putting in 10-20 minutes per game as he provides a defensive stopper. Reggie has also had a couple of good offensive outings, most notably versus Niagara and earlier against Albany. Reynolds and Fisher have tended to be prolific shooters (for Scottie it is usually in the second half), but not especially efficient scorers.

Monmouth By the Numbers...
Over the past 5 years Monmouth's RPI has ranged from the high 200s down to the low 100s, which reflects the Hawks' success in the NEC. So far this season Monmouth's pace 66.8, is a bit lower than the D1-wide pace team this season (69 possessions, adjusted, via Ken Pomeroy's Monmouth Scout Page which ranks the Hawks #214 out of approx. 343). Comparing each team according to Dean Oliver's four factors...

When Monmouth has the ball...
				FTA
	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FGA
Hawk O	48.2	24.0	34.7	17.5
'Cat D	44.9	23.8	30.8	36.3

Monmouth does not shoot the ball particularly well, ranked #177 right now. They are more adept at converting 2s, which could be a problem if 'Te and 'Tone are especially active. Monmouth is turnover prone (see TO% above), ranked #246 in that category. Villanova defense, by contrast, is good (not great though) at forcing turnovers. The 'Cats are ranked #93. This could be very challenging for the Hawks. A related stat not show here (but located on Nova & MU's Scouting Report provided at Ken Pomeroy's web site) is the Steal rate (Steals per 100 possessions...). Monmouth's offense loses possesions by steals at a 11.6% rate (ranked #246), while Villanova forces those steals at a 11.4% (ranked #100) rate. The players charged with guarding Rutledge and Myers-Keitt could have a banner night. Rebounding under Monmouth's hoop could be interesting too. Monmouth (see table above) has been about average at snagging their misses -- Taylor and Gaitley have been especially effective. Nova by contrast, has been pretty good at controlling their opponent's boards. Stokes, Redding, Pena and Drummond in particular have been strong on those defensive boards. The Drummond/Pena-Gaitley matchup may turn out to be a board battle (as opposed to a point scoring contest). Defense is a real point of vulnerability for Monmouth, as the table below suggests...

When Villanova has the ball...
				FTA
	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FGA
'Cat O	59.1	17.6	37.9	46.5
Hawk D	56.5	17.3	37.1	39.3

Shot defense is a significant problem for the Hawks, with 2FGA defense being a touch worse than 3FGA defense. Could be a big night for the front court. Monmouth does not force turnovers, and Nova is not inclined to lose the ball too much. Rebounding however, is especially troubling for Monmouth. Monmouth's defensive rebounding (Offensive rebounding on the defensive Factors table), 37.1%, ranks the Hawks at #255, which suggests their opponents typically get second (& third?) chances to score for just under 4 in 10 misses -- about where Villanova expects to be. Dante and Antonio have been especially strong on the boards so far, so if they can stay out of foul trouble, one or both could be a very big night. A good many "signs" point to multiple opportunities for Nova to score.

Final Thoughts...
...A year after being widely regarded as the youthfully inexperienced team, the Wildcats find the tables turned. The Hawks look to their freshmen front court contingent, along with an outside shooter or two to put points on the board. Those players, however, are among the youngest on the floor. It seems a part of the Hawks' challenge at this point includes learning how to score and play consistently, but also (even more fundamentally...), how to win.

Coach Wright, despite injuries to a variety of players that makes his rotation decisions more a guessing game than game management, has managed to put 10 or more players on the floor while making sure 7-8 get double digits minutes. His decisions (and motivational methods?) have Reggie Redding suppling quality minutes as Clark and Anderson sort through injuries. And senior Frank Tchuisi, along with walk-ons Jason Colenda and Russell Wooten, have provided "Hippocratic Minutes" for a rotation that is prematurely shallow.

Comparing pace, offensive and defensive efficiencies suggests this game will probably be played at a pretty deliberate pace. But that should not stop Villanova from taking a win with a margin somewhere north of 25 points. The 'Cats, especially if Fisher and Reynolds can score efficiently, might break triple digits for the second time this season.

Roster Notes...
Villanova...
1. Dwayne Anderson is still out with a foot injury..
2. Shane Clark may not be at full strength yet. Shane had anthroscopic surgery ealier in the month.
3. Corey Stokes' hand was taped for the Niagara game, the result of a sprain to his thumb. No word on his recovery progress.

Monmouth
1. Whitney Coleman has not appeared since he was taken out of Monmouth's first game of the season. No official word on his status.

The 2008 Philly Classic -- Fleshing Out the Details

The A10 conference released many of their member schedules en mass yesterday, which, aside from confirming circulating rumors of a game with the Fordham Rams (scheduled for 11/17 in the Pav) and fixing the date for Villanova's Big 5 game against St. Joseph's (scheduled for 12/11), confirmed rumors circulating among Rhode Island Ram fans from last month. The Rams announced they will open their Philly Classic run against Monmouth on the road and then host Hartford before heading down to the Palestra to play rounds 3 and 4. Along with the Purple Eagles of Niagara (out of the MAAC), who also released their OOC schedule yesterday, much of the speculation about the brackets and preliminary round games have been confirmed. The eight team field has been divided into two brackets of four teams each...

Bracket A:		Bracket B:
Hartford		Penn State
Monmouth		Rhode Island
Niagara		Towson
NJIT		Villanova

Preliminary round games (two of them) are scheduled to be hosted by some of the teams in the field and played at sites (largely campus) outside of Philadelphia. The third round will be played in the Palestra on Friday November 28. Round 4 games (round 3 winners vs winners, losers vs losers) will be played on Saturday November 29. The schedule for the preliminary rounds games...

Home	Visitor	Date
Niagara	Towson	11/16/2008
Penn State	NJIT	11/17/2008
Villanova	Niagara	11/19/2008
Monmouth	Rhode Island	11/20/2008
Penn State	Hartford	11/20/2008
Towson	NJIT	11/24/2008
Rhode Island	Hartford	11/25/2008
Villanova	Monmouth	TBA

Between Hartford and Rhode Island we can tease out the November 28 games at the Palestra as well. Rhode Island announced the Rams will face the Nittany Lions of the Big Ten. The Hartford Hawks schedule shows their round 3 opponent will be the NJIT Highlanders. That means Monmouth and Niagara will face-off in the other "Bracket A" game, while Villanova and Towson will play the other "Bracket B" game.