Guest Contributor Ray Floriani: First Day at the MAAC Tournament

by Ray Floriani

BRIDGEPORT, CT. - Friday's MAAC 'marathon' session is in the books. Six games. The four women's quarterfinals followed by a men's first round double header. All at the Webster Bank Arena at Harbor Yard in Bridgeport.

About 9 am at Harbor Yard
Note the Sleepy's ad -- How appropriate.

The scores...

Women's Quarterfinals:

Team	Score			Team
Loyola	68	OT	53	Canisius
Manhattan	59		47	Iona
Marist	61		33	St. Peter's
Siena	36		33	Fairfield

The Men's First Round

Team	Score			Team
Marist	73		61	Niagara
Siena	68	OT	66	Manhattan

Game of the Day...
Loyola's 68-53 win over Canisius in overtime. The regulation finish sparked the ongoing debate, when you have a three point lead with seconds left do you concentrate on defense or give a foul or two even if it puts an opponent on the line?

Micayla Dysdale of seventh seeded Canisius hit two free throws to give the Griffs a three point lead with three seconds left. Canisius coach Terry Zeh discussed fouling with his staff during the time out after Drysdale's shots. Zeh decided not to foul. Following the time out, Loyola pushed the ball and Miriam McKenzie proceeded to release a defended three that saw nothing but net at the buzzer.

Head Coach Terry Zeh (r) discusses the first half
with his Canisius staff

In overtime, Loyola scored first, then got a defensive stop. Even with over four minutes to play Canisius was a beaten team. The efficiency numbers bear this out. At the end of regulation the score was tied at 49. Each team had 58 possessions and an 85 offensive efficiency. Let's look at the totals for overtime:

		Off.
	Poss.	Eff.
Canisius	10	40
Loyola	10	190

Clearly, Loyola was dominant in the extra session from tip to buzzer. The final numbers:

		Off.
	Poss.	Eff.
Canisius	68	78
Loyola	68	100

Credit McKenzie's shot for the huge swing in second seeded Loyola's favor. Zeh could only second guess. "To the day I put my foot in the grave I will regret the decision not to foul," he said. His philosophy is if you are small do not foul as the opponent can rebound a missed second shot. But as Zeh noted Canisius is big, rebounding wasn't a major issue. He just made a decision that did not work in the long run. The Four Factors:

		FTA
	eFG%	FGA	OR%	TO%
Canisius	28	24	38	18
Loyola	43	43	27	16

Not a bad way to start with the 9:30 a.m. game. Turnover rates were impressive. Griffs owned a 20-10 edge on the offensive glass. Their 1 of 11 overtime shooting had a negative result on eFG. Trailing early in OT, Canius got into an early fouling mode which explains the free throw rate disparity.

Official Jon Levinson during a break in the action.

Record Game of the Day...
Siena's 36-33 victory over Fairfield set the record as the lowest scoring women's game in MAAC tournament history. The halftime score was 15-7 Fairfield. In 27 possessions the offensive efficiencies:

	Effs
Fairfield	56
Siena	23

Saints shot 3 for 25 (12%) the opening 20 minutes. They did put the first points on the board on a Serena Moore baseline jumper five and a half minutes into the contest. The final efficiencies:

		Off.
	Poss.	Eff.
Fairfield	54	61
Siena	57	63

Imagine giving up an efficiency of 63, and still losing? The Four Factors:

		FTA
	eFG%	FGA	OR%	TO%
Fairfield	30	8	24	20
Siena	26	26	32	24

Three of the four factors were relatively normal. Even the TO rate was borderline but not excessive. The field goal shooting, as both coaches pointed out, was most affected by defensive efforts which were present on both ends. The game had two double digit scorers with Maja Gerlyng of Siena leading the way with 14 points. Moore of Siena, a versatile threat had a commendable 9 point 10 rebound effort, but was 2 of 14 from the floor. The two teams shot 49% from the field, combined. Fairfield checked in at 26.5% while Siena was 23.4%. As Siena coach Gina Castelli said, "it (the game) was hard fought, there was some great defense, especially on Fairfield's part the first half, out there but face it. It was ugly. Everyone saw it."

The Guiness stand.
An 'oasis' yours truly had to bypass.

Men's First Round
It has been another struggle for the Marist men but they did earn a quarterfinal berth with their win over Niagara. The pace and efficiency:

		Off.
	Poss.	Eff.
Marist	66	111
Niagara	67	91

Marist entered the game with a -18 efficiency margin (offense minus defense). Their average offensively was 91 and defense checked in at 109. So this was as good a performance as the Red Foxes have had this year. The Four Factors:

		FTA
	eFG%	FGA	OR%	TO%
Marist	51	24	34	15
Niagara	36	38	38	19

Chucky Martin's team clicked on all cylinders. Marist shot the ball well and took care of the ball, two vital areas. They were only 5 of 17 (29%) from three but were 22 of 41 (54%) from two point range. An impressive showing.

In the paint Marist enjoyed a 42-26 scoring edge. While Niagara did not commit many turnovers, they paid dearly was the Red Foxes had a 20-10 advantage in points off turnovers.

With little consistent help, Niagara's fine senior guard Anthony Nelson led all scorers with 28 points.

The Streak Lives
The nightcap saw Siena defeat Manhattan in overtime. Siena, winner of three straight MAAC championships has not lost a conference tournament game since 2007 when Niagara defeated the Saints, ironically at Harbor Yard in the final.

The pace was in the moderate range:

		Off.
	Poss.	Eff.
Manhattan	64	103
Siena	66	104

Siena had a high 26% TO rate. They were able to offset that a bit with their 51% eFG mark and a 44% OREB percentage. The Jaspers managed only 39% in that latter category.

Ryan Rossiter, Siena's 'double-double machine' , scored 17 points and pulled down 14 rebounds. A big difference was Clarence Jackson. The Siena senior guard stepped up and hit a game high 24 points for the Saints. Interestingly neither Rossiter nor Jackson has experienced a MAAC tournament loss in their careers.

The obligatory cheer shot -- Siena cheerleaders

Notes
With overtime games to start and end the 6 game session, fans were treated to almost 15 hours of basketball.

On the officiating front, a number of friends worked games during the tournament. On the women's side Joe Barrise and Jon Levinson, whom I have had the pleasure to work with, had Marist-St. Peter's. Gary Schimel, an instructor at a few officiating camps I attended, had the 'famous' Siena-Fairfield matchup. In the evening Brian O'Connell and Brian Dorsey, again another pair I have been fortunate to work with, had Marist-Niagara.

No predictions but…Marist, with a defensive efficiency of 69 for the year (they held St. Peter's to 47 in the quarterfinal), will be awfully tough to dethrone from the top spot in the women's tournament. On the men's side, Fairfield is the favorite but any of the other top four seeds, Iona, Rider or St.Peter's, could challenge.

Harbor Yard on the exit
as Paul Simon would say 'late in the evening'

Guest Contributor Ray Floriani: Marist at St. Peters, WBB

by Ray Floriani
JERSEY CITY, NJ - The first eight minutes were close. Then Marist went on a tear en route to a 79-38 victory over St. Peter's in a MAAC women's meeting. An impressive offensive team, the story of this game at Yanitelli Center, was the Red Foxes' outstanding defense.

Efficiency numbers:

		Off.
	Poss.	Eff.
Marist	67	118
St. Peter's	67	57

Marist entered the game a 65 possession team in MAAC play. Their offensive efficiency was 104 and the defensive number, an outstanding 66. They came to Yanitelli 15-0 in conference play and while they have the offensive weapons, Marist begins with defense.

At the half in this contest, Marist led 33-13. The pace saw Marist with 37 possessions and St. Peter's 36. The efficiency margin (offensive minus defensive) for the Red Foxes was off that chart at +53 with an 89 on offense and 36 on the defensive end.

The Four Factors:

		FTA
	eFG%	FGA	OR%	TO%
Marist	56	14	29	11
St. Peter's	30	11	26	30

Marist dominated in virtually every area. Outside shooting has been a concern of late to coach Brian Giorgis. Tonight the Red Foxes hit 10 of 21 beyond the arc. A significant number as league opposition, especially Fairfield who gave Marist their toughest MAAC test to date, before losing 54-52 a few weeks ago, will show a lot of zone. Erica Allensbach (3 of 6), Corielle Yarde (2 of 5) and Christine Best (2 of 2) all found the shooters touch from three.

Marist's Erica Allenspach prepares to inbound

The Defense Never Rests
With 12 minutes to play in the first half Marist had an 11-9 lead. St. Peter's was playing confidently and was able to get the ball inside. At that point I decided to chart the possessions the final dozen minutes of the half. The results epitomized the Marist D.

			Off.
	Poss.	Pts.	Eff.
Marist	22	22	100
St. Peter's	23	4	17

Six of the St. Peter's possessions ended in turnovers. They did not score a field goal and the first points during that stretch were on two Teresa Manigasso free throws with 2:29 to play in the half.

Beside the forcing 20 St. Peter's turnovers and limiting them to 24% field goal shooting (6 of 12 from three boosted the eFG mark to 30%) from the floor, Giorgis was pleased with Marist's 10 blocked shots and 10 steals. Kate Oliver a 6-4 sophomore forward rejected four shots and altered a few more along the way.

The Marist defensive staple is man to man. The latter part of the second half with a big lead Giorgis zoned. Given their length and defensive reaction, Marist did not do a bad job in that defense. Still, the man to man, as noted is the primary option.

Celebration just after the buzzer

St. Bonaventure Connection
On the men's side when St. John's takes down another ranked opponent there is mention of the Red Storm's early season losses to Fordham and St. Bonaventure. With the women, Marist now has the nation's longest win streak at 21 games. Their last loss? December 4th 45-40, like St. John's at home, against the Lady Bonnies of St. Bonaventure. In an ironic twist the only other Marist setback was opening night against the St. John's women.

Notes
Marist is 25-2 (16-0 in the MAAC). St. Peter's 3-24 (3-13 in conference). Three Marist players wee in double figures. Erica Allenspach and Kelsey Beynnon shared scoring honors with 13 points each. Jynae Judson paced St. Peter's with 10 points. Marist had 11 players log at least 11 minutes of playing time. Marist held a 36-10 advantage in points in the paint and a 27-5 edge in points off turnovers.

Giorgis stated in post game interviews that this team is still on a mission. "They are playing with a little chip," he said. "We lost a great player Rachelle Fitz whose number was retired Friday. Some people wondered how we would do without her. These kids want to show they can do something special like go undefeated in MAAC play. That is their goal and focus."

Brian Giorgis interviewed on radio
Julianne Viani (l), recently starred for Marist
now does analysis for their broadcasts

Marist closes out the regular season with two interesting matchups, visiting Siena Friday and Fairfield on Sunday. St. Peter's will host Rider on Thursday and visit Loyola on Sunday.

A Side Trip in Jersey City...
An afternoon officiating assignment nearby gave me a chance to snap a few Hamilton Park Winter scenes. A beautiful scene, but a real contrast to the setting when Summer League is in full swing.

Courts wait silently, patiently
for the players to return


Close your eyes and picture
the fans surrounding the courts...
can you hear the crowd buzz?

The 2010 NIT Tip-Off -- A Look at the Winston-Salem and DC Pods

A Tale of Two Consolation Pods
A coincidence perhaps, or an ingrained part of the New York City-centric history of the NIT, but two of the three consolation pods (and the Championship Bracket) will be played in states along the Atlantic seaboard. Consistent with the protocol for (real) tournaments, pod play will dominate the early part of Thanksgiving Week, Monday and Tuesday nights, yielding the late week spotlight to the games of the Championship Bracket. The Semi-final will be played Wednesday night, with the Final (and Third Place game) scheduled for Friday night.

The Washington DC Pod
The two "North" pod 1-1 finishers, Boston University (NEC) and George Washington University (A-10 -- the pod host) will square off against Nevada, a 21 game winner and NIT team last season, and the Pirates of Hampton University (MEAC). Asking GW to take the hosting responsibilities was a nice touch. Although the A-10 representative lost their primary scorer Lasan Kromah just before the tournament, they have a renovated facility in the nation's capital. Nothing says Thanksgiving like a holiday in the nation's capital. And the Colonials have a brand new Daktronics scoreboard in their renovated on campus arena.

 

Washington DC
	Adjusted
Team	Pace	Adj Off	Adj Def	PWP
George Washington	67.4	102.4	97.6	0.635
Boston University	68.6	103.9	100.3	0.600
Hampton	66.7	88.1	96.8	0.254
Nevada	69.7	98.9	103.0	0.386

Breakdown of the Monday night games...

	log5	Pace	Margin
Boston University	81.5	67.3	10+
Hampton	18.5

Of Villanova's four opponents this season, Boston University has played the Wildcats tightest. Matt Griffen, Jake O'Brien and John Holland should have a good night at the Terriers take this by double digits. The overcard will feature GW and their WAC guests from Nevada

	log5	Pace	Margin
Nevada	26.6	69.5
George Washington	73.4		@7?

Pomeroy's Pythagorean Winning Percentages are still heavily influenced by Pomeroy's preseason calibration, so Lasan Kromah's loss is still not reflected in the offensive/defensive efficiencies. Coach Karl Hobbs will look to veterans Tony Taylor, Joseph Katuka, Aaron Ware and red shirt Jabari Edwards to fill in the gaps left by Kromah. Hopefully the sophomore will recover soon.

The former North Pod teams will swap guests for their Tuesday night games...

	log5	Pace	Margin
Nevada	29.5	70.4
Boston University	70.5		@5-6?

This promises to be the highest possession game of the pod, with both teams geared to shoot early in the possession. Nevada however is in danger of finishing this tournament 0-4, as neither of these games looks close.

	log5	Pace	Margin
Hampton	16.4	66.4
George Washington	83.6		10+?

Hampton, though sporting a 1-1 record out of the East Pod (they beat Winthrop in their second round game at Winston-Salem), Hampton brings the lowest PWP to this pod. Too bad they were not matched with Nevada, not possible because the other two teams played in the first round of pod play. It might be a bit ugly to watch, but it would be closer than any of the four scheduled games.

If the teams play to their PWPs, expect BU and GW to finish the tournament with 3-1 records, while Hampton can console itself with a single win over Winthrop, Nevada would go winless. Brutal for the cross country trip.

The Winston-Salem Pod
If the Pythagorean Winning Percentage is an accurate measure, this is the weakest of the three consolation pods. The irony is that it is simultaneously the most diverse in terms of team strength. The pairings also virtually two nights of near blowout basketball with as the least competitive potential match-ups were made. Rank has it's privileges apparently.

 

Winston-Salem, NC
	Adjusted
Team	Pace	Adj Off	Adj Def	PWP
Belmont	70.6	107.1	95.9	0.780
Marist	66.5	91.8	105.1	0.175
Wake Forest (host)	71.9	101.2	99.6	0.545
Winthrop	65.0	91.3	97.6	0.319

Although Winthrop and Wake were grouped in the East Pod, they did not play. The organizers (and Wake as the pod host?) decided to match them this time around. Those two will trade off Belmont and Marist on Monday and Tuesday. Breakdown of the Monday night games...

	log5	Pace	Margin
Marist	5.6	69.2
Belmont	94.6		20+?

Marist is the weakest team in the field, and the log5 projection shows they will lose again Monday night. Heavily. Hopefully Coach Martin can use this experience to mature his squad and get them ready for MAAC play.

	log5	Pace	Margin
Winthrop	28.1	69.0
Wake Forest	71.9		@8?

Though seeded #3 and given hosting responsibilities in the preliminary round, Wake struggled with Hampton in their first round game, and fell to Virginia Commonwealth in the second round. Given pod host responsibilities again, the tournament organizers appear to want the Demon Deacons to have the best opportunity to finish with a 3-1 record as well. The Eagles represented the Big South Conference in the NCAAs last March, but coach Randy Peele, entering his fourth season at Winthrop, faces a rebuilding year. The Eagles started slow last season and managed to make the Dance, maybe they can again this season.

Tuesday night games...

	log5	Pace	Margin
Winthrop	11.6	67.6
Belmont	88.4		10+

On paper this is a near-blowout of the Big South representative by a lower ranked conference opponent. Belmont is good and will probably finish this tournament with a 3-1 record that includes a good loss to Tennessee (by nine points on the Vols' home court), and three blowout wins over lesser opponents. This would have to be a confidence builder for the Atlantic Sun Conference representative. The Nashville, TN school has to be favored to take the conference championship this season.

	log5	Pace	Margin
Marist	15.0	70.5
Wake Forest	85.0		@10+?

This should be good entertainment for the Deacon faithful, as they will watch their team in an up tempo game blowing out a lesser opponent. Hopefully they can hold onto that memory, as it might be the high point of their season.

The most interesting match-up of the pod is the one that will not be played -- Wake vs Belmont. For giggles I ran the log5 numbers for that game and came up with Belmont favored, 74.8-25.2, in a very high tempo game (about 74 possessions), with the Bears mauling the Deacons by double digits. It is a shame, because low majors get very few opportunities outside of invitational tournaments like this one (where the organizers have some say in the match-ups) to take a good shot at a power conference team. Maybe Wake ran the log5 numbers too, before they decided on the pairings.

NIT Season Tip-Off -- A Post Pod Look

The Field Sorts Out...
The four NIT pod sites completed their two round elimination games Monday through Wednesday (11/15-11/17), with the four teams that logged 2-0 records in the pod rounds advancing to New York City to settle matters on the floor of Madison Square Garden. The end of pod play does not, however spell the end of the tournament for the 12 teams that will not advance to New York. For those teams, the field has been reorganized, three teams were selected to host a second set of games and the remaining nine teams were assigned to the three pod sites. The redrawn field (Pod hosts listed first, other alphabetized) is:

New York City (NIT Champ)	Conf.		Winston-Salem, NC	Conf.
Tennessee	SEC #2		Wake Forest	ACC #3
UCLA	Pac-10 #4		Belmont	Atl. Sun
Villanova	Big East #1		Marist	MAAC
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA #5		Winthrop	Big South
Washington DC	Conf.		Springfield, MO	Conf.
George Washington	A-10 #7		Missouri State	MVC #6
Boston University	Am. East		Arkansas State	Sun Belt
Hampton	MEAC		Pacific	Big West
Nevada	WAC #8		Pepperdine	WCC

For all but New York City (the Championship bracket), the pod host is the first team listed under the pod location. The first eight teams were seeded by the NIT before the first pod. The original seed is listed for those teams after their conference affiliation. All pods except New York City are "consolation pods", so the rounds will not be single elimination, but rather two games scheduled against two of the other pod members. That explains why every pod has (at least) one pair of teams from the previous pod assignment. Those "paired teams" are not scheduled to play each other. Each team in the tournament, win or lose, is guaranteed four "unique" opponents.

What We Learned From the Pods
1. This is a "real tournament", even if it was seeded...strangely. Though designated a pod host and given a #3 seed in the field (of 16), Wake Forest still had to earn it's ticket to New York City and the Championship Bracket. And that the Demon Deacons could not do, as Virginia Commonwealth beat them by a convincing 21 points, 90-69 on Tuesday (11/17) and swiped the Deacons' ticket to Madison Square Garden. That could not have been fun for the Wake faithful. (Too) Many of the early season invitationals grant their pod hosts a pass to the "Championship Bracket" irrespective of whether they win their pod outright.
2. Nevada is officially rebuilding. The 2010 edition of the Wolfpack is gone and the perennial WAC powerhouse is something of a paper tiger, as the Pacific Tigers, followed by the Pepperdine Waves demonstrated on successive nights in West pod action. Pepperdine, which beat Nevada by a point, 76-75, won seven games (total) in 2010, and is projected to finish last in the West Coast Conference again this season. Nevada will play their consolation games in Washington DC.
3. George Washington will really miss Lasan Kromah. Announced on the eve of pod play, the sophomore guard and All A-10 Rookie Team player is out indefinitely with a sprained left foot. The Colonials dropped a nine point decision to Boston University (76-67), but blew Marist off the floor (79-59) the next night. A long recuperation period by the sophomore scorer is going to force Coach Karl Hobbs to lean on the other returning players (Tony Taylor, Joseph Katuka, Andre Ware, Jabari Edwards) to pick up a larger share of the offense. Projected (preseason) to finish around the middle of the Atlantic-10 Conference, a recuperation that stretches into conference play could really hurt the Colonials' chances to build on the progress last season.
4. Tennessee had a strong pod or really has some work to do. Probably both. The Volunteers dealt themselves Belmont (of the Atlantic Sun Conference) as their first round opponent, and managed a nine point win despite leading by only one, 77-76, with 0:36 left. The Vols scored the last eight points at the line, as the Bruins, who hit 7-22 from beyond the arc up to that point, missed a pair of three point attempts (and a two point attempt), could not rebound those misses and had to fall back on possession fouls to regain the ball. Against their second round opponent, Missouri State of the MVC, Tennessee managed to carry the day by four points. The game was a tug-of-war for the lead though the Vols pushed the bulge out to double digits once -- for some two minutes -- in the first half. The Bears took their last lead, 36-33, about five minutes into the second half, and though they could only hold it for a single possession, they were not, through the end of the game, more than two possessions away from a tie or lead. Maybe Tennessee's Bruce Pearl was distracted with other matters.

The Schedules...
The consolation pods will play out on Monday and Tuesday (11/22 & 11/23) of next week. The Championship Bracket is scheduled for Madison Square Garden. On Wednesday (11/24) the semi-finals will be played at 7:00 pm (Virginia Commonwealth vs Tennessee) and 9:00 pm (UCLA vs Villanova). The finals (and third place game) are scheduled for Friday, 2:00 pm (Third Place) and 5:00 pm (Championship).

What We Anticipate
From a log5 and offensive/defensive efficiencies perspective, it Wake's woes may not be over. And the same could be said for Tennessee. The Springfield Consolation Bracket could well be the strongest of the three consolation brackets, as two experienced West Coast teams tangle with two heartland squads in what might be a Bracket Buster Tournament in November. I will post break downs for each consolation bracket, along with the Championship Bracket later this weekend.

Further Reading...
The Official NIT Tip Off Site
The Consolation Brackets with sites, teams, dates and game times. Home team bolded.

Marist Post Game -- Offensive Distribution

Streaks
Villanova, designated as the "North Region Pod Site" for the 2010 NIT Tip-Off hosted the Red Foxes of Marist University in first round action Tuesday night at the Pavilion on the Mainline campus. They were not very good hosts as they crushed the Red Foxes 84-47 and ran their Pavilion winning streak to 37 consecutive games. For Marist, a team that logged a 1-29 record last season, this was no way to open their 2011 campaign.

The Wildcats took a 3-0 lead two minutes in on a Corey Stokes three pointer, and the two teams "played tag" for the next four minutes. Villanova retook the lead for good on a Maalik Wayns three point jumper at the 13 minute mark of the first period. Fueled by a 16-1 run in the middle of the first period, the 'Cats stretched the lead to 15 points, 24-9, before the Red Foxes broke back with a 10-4 run to trim Nova's lead to eight points. The 'Cats broke back with a 8-2 run before Marist guard Anell Alexis hit a three pointer to close out the half, leaving Villanova with an 11 point lead, 36-25 going into the locker room. Villanova used the first 10 minutes of the second half to take a 19-10 run and pad their lead out to 20. Marist offered resistance, but steadily surrendered points as Villanova spent the last 10 minutes padding the lead. Marist failed to score at all in the last five minutes as the 'Cats tallied the last 16 points of the game and bringing the total to 88-47.

VUhoops.com has posted a quick recap, "Villanova Mauls Marist" with the results of their Closest to the Pin contest. Chris over at The Nova Blog used his report, "postGame: Villanova 84, Marist 47 " to complement the team on their strong showing after a less-than-stellar performance in the Bucknell game. Chris gave a hat tip to sophomores Dom Cheek and Maurice Sutton, citing Sutton's numbers in detail. Both Chris and Ed '77 mentioned that five Wildcats, Maalik Wayns (game-high 17 points), Dom Cheek (15), Maurice Sutton (13), Mouphtaou Yarou (10) and Corey Fisher (10) logged double digit points.

The official website also posted the boxscore and an AP wire story. The breakdown by halves...

Opponent	Marist
	1st	2nd	Game
Pace	34.5	34.1	68.6
	Offense				Defense
	1st	2nd	Game		1st	2nd	Game
Rating	104.4	140.9	122.5		72.5	64.6	68.6
eFG%	37.5	67.2	50.8		33.9	27.6	30.7
TORate	11.6	14.7	13.1		23.2	20.6	21.9
OR%	44.0	25.0	37.8		28.6	27.3	27.9
FTA/FGA	33.3	31.0	32.3		32.1	20.7	26.3
FTM/FGA	25.0	31.0	27.7		21.4	20.7	21.1
ARate	66.7	64.7	65.5		62.5	57.1	60.0
Blk%	11.1	0.0	6.2		10.7	13.8	12.3
Stl%	2.9	11.3	7.1		11.7	9.1	10.4
PPWS	0.86	1.44	1.12		0.77	0.69	0.73
2FG%	42.9	52.2	47.7		35.7	27.8	31.3
3FG%	20.0	83.3	38.1		21.4	18.2	20.0
FT%	75.0	100.0	85.7		66.7	100.0	80.0
%2FG	50.0	50.0	50.0		40.0	45.5	42.6
%3FG	25.0	31.3	28.6		36.0	27.3	31.9
%FT	25.0	18.8	21.4		24.0	27.3	25.5

The pace was consistent from half to half. I suspect 34 possessions per half (about 30 - 36 field goal attempts with 5 - 10 offensive rebounds and fewer than five turnovers each half) is Villanova's "preferred pace". The average timespan to run an offensive set (or two) would be about 19 seconds (about 68 possesions in 20 minutes). If the Wildcats follow the pattern described by Ken Pomeroy back in 2009, the earlier in the possession they get a shot off, the higher the efficiency (more likely they are to post points).

Half Time Adjustments
The red highighted stats suggest the Wildcat's offense started slowly. While a 104 offensive efficiency (about 1.04 points per possession) is above the 100 mark, but well below the 110+ efficiency typically posted by Villanova's offense. Half-over-half, the only stepback was offensive rebounding (OR%); the Wildcats dominated the boards early on, but did not contest as successfully, despite Marist's drop off in conversion efficiency in the second half.

Player	%Min	Poss%	Shot%	PPWS	eFG%
Pena, Antonio	57.5	27.1	24.1	0.95	44.4
Yarou, Mouphtaou	50.0	23.5	21.5	1.27	57.1
Wayns, Maalik	72.5	27.5	23.3	1.29	63.6
Fisher, Corey	80.0	22.8	17.3	0.89	27.8
Stokes, Corey	80.0	25.5	19.2	0.80	40.0
Wooten, Russell	2.5	0.0	0.0	0.00	0.0
Cheek, Dominic	55.0	22.0	28.0	1.44	75.0
Sutton, Maurice	55.0	26.0	16.8	1.43	50.0
Armwood, Isaiah	47.5	14.7	9.7	0.67	33.3

The seniors did not log 90% of the available minutes at their positions, a good sign. Fisher, Stokes and Pena would be worn out by March.

Notes & Observations
1. The striking stat is possession rate (Poss% above). Note how virtually everyone who logged playing time 50.0% and above logged Possessions in the 20% range. Pena, Wayns and Stokes were "Major Contributors", while the others were all "Significant Contributors". The profile is similar to that developed by Syracuse last season. The offense can be difficult to defend if all five players on the court are nearly equally capable of scoring. Note the shot rates (Shot%) were, like the Poss%, very close.
2. Compare each player's Shot%, eFG% & PPWS above. Pena and Sutton excepted, the players who had problems converting tended to shoot less as well, a good sign. Not shown but worth noting, Fisher, Wayns and Pena logged assist rates above 20%, Fisher's assist rate was 33.0 for this game, well above the rate he posted in the Bucknell game. Pena apparently recognized he had problems and looked for teammates when the defense closed. His rate, 23.7, is comparable to a point guard. Evidence of a well coordinated "helping" offense.
3. Neither Bucknell nor Marist have notably efficient offenses. While the 'Cats were able to hold both well below the 1.0 point per possession threshold, only stronger competition will show how solid the defense can be.

Roster Notes
1. The freshmen (James Bell and JayVaughn Pinkston) continue to be DNP.
2. Fifth year senior Russell Wooten appeared for a minute at the end of the game.

NIT Second Round
Villanova will face Boston University in a second round game on Wednesday at 8:00pm. BU, beat George Washington of the Atlantic-10 Conference 76-67 in their first round game. The Nova/BU winner will advance to the tournament semi-final in Madison Square Garden November 24th. GWU and Marist will face off in the consolation game Wednesday at 5:30pm. Both games Wednesday to be played in the Pavilion.

The 2010 NIT Tip-Off -- a Second Look

Mixing in Pomeroy
As ESPN and other media outlets were pushing the invitational tournament out the door last August I posted an overview and quick analysis of the NIT Tip-Off Tournament, Villanova's early season invitational tournament. In the past two weeks the first round matchups have been officially announced and additional statistical data has been developed (primarily by Ken Pomeroy & the folks at the Basketball Prospectus), so it seems appropriate to revisit the NIT field and review the pod matchups.

The Field -- a Quick Review
Recall the field, sorted by region, with the host team listed first as it appeared in my Auguat post:

(North) Villanova	Big East		(South) Tennessee	SEC
Boston University	Am. East		Arkansas State	Sun Belt
George Washington	A-10		Belmont	Atl. Sun
Marist	MAAC		Missouri State	MVC
(East) Wake Forest	ACC		(West) UCLA	Pac-10
Hampton	MEAC		Nevada	WAC
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA		Pacific	Big West
Winthrop	Big South		Pepperdine	WCC

My overview/analysis relied heavily on 2010 season-ending possession-based stats from Ken Pomeroy's web site. In the past week (or so) the Basketball Prospectus has published it's preview for the season, a work that provides a preview for all 345 D1 teams. Ken Pomeroy has also released his Pythagorean Winning Percentage (PWP) and project "starting" offensive and defensive efficiencies for every team in D1. So, armed with new numbers, it is time to take another look at the field.

For each pod site, I have given the revised possession-based information for each team.

The East Region
The NIT folks locked up the pod hosts over a year ago. I have to think this would have made more sense for the 2012 or 2013 tournament, after Wake Forest's new head coach Jeff Bzdelik had time to settle in and assemble "his" team. The teams are paired according to their first round games (Wake vs Hamption and Virginia Commonwealth vs Winthrop)...

	2011 Projected
	Pace	Off.	Def.	PWP
Wake Forest	70.1	104.2	98.3	0.6603
Hampton	66.7	90.1	99.4	0.2456
VCU	68.0	109.9	96.1	0.8234
Winthrop	65.2	93.5	99.3	0.3335

The preponderance of previews project a lower division ACC conference finish for the Deacons. While Wake Forest will take their first round game (versus Hampton) by a comfortable margin (according to Pomeroy -- and to a very high degree of confidence too), but they have to pray that Winthrop will upset Virginia Commonwealth, as a second round match-up with Shaka Smart's VCU squad is the upset special for this tournament. A "log5 take" on the second round match-up between the Deacons and Rams suggests a Rams win to a 70.6% certainty. While I did not factor for home court advantage, Joel Coliseum cannot match New Mexico's Pit for intimidation, and even the Pit would be hard pressed to overcome a 2-to-1 log5 winning margin. Yikes. The pod losers will be routed to a consolation bracket to be hosted at the campus of one of the losing schools. Maybe Wake will host one of the consolation sites.

West Region
UCLA's rebuilding job is apparent by the PWP (as computed by Pomeroy). Which (again) points to the problem of locking up the pod hosts a year or more in advance of the tournament...

	2011 Projected
	Pace	Off.	Def.	PWP
UCLA	66.3	111.5	95.1	0.8617
Pepperdine	67.1	98.3	101.1	0.4474
Nevada	68.7	98.5	104.3	0.3405
Pacific	62.6	105.6	98.7	0.6846

I wrote in the August post that the pod scheduler would resist the temptation to schedule by name and match-up Nevada with UCLA in the first (rather than second) round. No one listens to me anyway. The Pacific-Nevada game should be pretty good, but the Wolfpack is much depleted, and though they are "officially" the #8 seed in the tournament field, they will not survive Pacific. This pod could be the second "most likely" second round upset in the tournament if it comes to a UCLA-Pacific match. Pacific is not favored (at this point -- that could change based on early games...), theirs and UCLA's PWPs hint at a close second round game with UCLA holding a 74.2% certainty of winning. Should seed holds through the first round however, UCLA has to be heavily favored to brush aside any challenge from the Wolfpack.

South Region
The revised numbers turned Tennessee's pod into the most challenging of the field, though the Vols remain the strong favorite...

	2010 Adjusted
	Pace	Off.	Def.	PWP
Tennessee	68.3	110.4	90.9	0.9028
Belmont	69.3	105.0	96.7	0.7191
Missouri St.	65.5	109.2	96.4	0.8085
Arkansas St.	67.0	97.5	99.0	0.4571

I observed in August the Belmont-Missouri State game would most likely be the best of the tournament...in the first round anyway. Tennessee, it turns out, will face Belmont in the first round, while Missouri State drew Arkansas State. Both the Bears and Red Wolves return substantial percentages of their 2010 minutes and points, but Pomeroy calls the Missouri State-Arkansas State game for Missouri State (by 11 points) to an 84% "certainty" (that's pretty strong). Tennessee takes their game (according to the log5 forumula) game with Belmont (by 12 points) to a 87% certainty. I was a little surprised Coach Bruce Pearl did not take Arkansas State as their first round opponent, but Belmont will help the Vols' RPI more than Arkansas State. The second round game should go to the Vols also, with a log5 calculated certainty of 68.7% (cannot adjust until games are played), Wake-VCU aside, this is probably the most competitive second round game involving a pod host.

North Region
The games are scheduled for the Pavilion, a shame since they may have been able to sellout the Well Fargo Center (or whatever they are calling the Wach this season), but probably could not get the facility for two consecutive days...

	2010 Adjusted
	Pace	Off.	Def.	PWP
Villanova	70.3	114.0	93.5	0.9079
Marist	65.9	94.0	104.3	0.2316
George Washington	67.0	102.2	97.2	0.6398
Boston University	68.3	103.0	99.9	0.5853

The first round match-ups will pit Villanova against Marist, with George Washington, the A-10's representative in this tournament, matched with Boston University. The Wildcats are favored (log5 formula) with a 98% certainty (a 25+ point margin), probably the most decisive first round in the tournament. The GW-BU game will be more competitive (probably the most competitive game of the first round), with Pomeroy (and log5) favoring George Washington by a point, at 56%. 56% is not quite toss-up territory, but very close as suggested by the computed one point margin. Should seed hold, expect Villanova and GWU will face off for the second round and pod win, with Villanova favored to an 84.3% certainty. That would be the least competitive second round game in the field.

The Semi-Finals and Beyond
The official bracket confirms the committee is looking for a Tennessee - Villanova final. Villanova was seeded #1 in the field, while Tennessee is seeded #2. Villanova will meet #4 seed UCLA while Tennessee drew #3 seed Wake Forest (hmmm). Virginia Commonwealth, should the Rams upset Wake, will draw Tennessee, which ought to be a good matchup for the favored Vols. Staying with Pomeroy's preseason PWP, Tennessee is projected to win with a confidence of 66.7%. Neutral site computations are a bit easier. Expect a last update with some log5 projections after the pod winners are settled.

Further Reading...
My August "Too Early" post.
The Official NIT Tip Off Site
Other Early Season Invitationals with teams, dates and sites. From CBS.

Guest Contributor: Ray Floriani -- MAAC Media Day

by Ray Floriani
NEW YORK CITY, NY -- On the media day circuit the MAAC held it event at BB King’s in midtown Manhattan. King’s ‘70 hit ‘The thrill is gone’ is a personal favorite and looking over some of the memorabilia of the noted artist was an added extra.

The MAAC rocked the house
at BB King's

On the basketball side, the media day once again gave an opportunity to take an informal survey of MAAC coaches utilizing tempo free statistics today.

Did not get a chance to speak with every MAAC mentor regarding tempo free but the ones inquired, had some opinions of note.

Ed Cooley, coach of pre-season favorite Fairfield noted, "I’m not really big on statistics except the final score. I’m old school, we have two teams the one with the most points is the winner." On further discussion Golden did admit his staff keeps very close attention to, charting and breaking down stops during a game. It was pointed out the discussion with Xavier’s Chris Mack over stops. With Mack, three straight stops are a 'kill' and seven kills in a game almost guarantee a win. "I’ll go along with that idea," Golden said. "To us during a game stops are vital and is a major statistic we want to keep track of."

Coach Ed Cooley of conference favorite Fairfield
discussing his club's outlook

Tom Parrotta of Canisius did not give much thought in the past to tempo free but may take a look at the numbers thanks to a certain software 'package'. "when I was recruiting at a tournament in Las Vegas a representative of Synergy showed me his product," Parrotta said. "I said 'show me Canisius’ out of bounds plays.' He put in some data and remarkably the sets we used on out of bounds series came up. I was sold."

According to Parrotta Synergy represents a great tool to utilize in scouting. "It shows everything," he said. "It breaks down everything by numbers so if one wants to use tempo free stats Synergy will have the entire breakdown." For Parrotta, his new found coaching aide will supply vital information on opponents and his own club just as well.

Tim Cluess of Ions is not only new to his school and the conference, he's the D I 'rookie' as well. From high school through Division II Cluess has been very successful on the sidelines. He takes a very enthusiastic approach to his current position at Iona. Tempo free statistics is something he is very interested in but until now unable to further investigate. "I would have liked to really get into those type of (tempo free) concepts in the past," Cluess admitted. "On the Division II level you are limited in staff and personnel. Here at Iona we have a full compliment so statistical breakdowns are something I will get into more."

Certain to play a major role for Cluess in stats breakdown area is Zak Boisvert. Zak realized playing college ball was out so he decided to work towards becoming a college coach. The last three years as student manager at Fordham Boisvert immersed himself in the game. Watching games when Fordham wasn’t playing, he would diagram plays, write them up on Fastdraw and submit them to the mens basketball hoop scoop site. His work on that site drew rave reviews from monitor Scott Peterman, a former college coach. Boisvert’s passion and love of the game no doubt landed him in New Rochelle. Beside film exchange, film edits, putting out a coaches' newsletter and related tasks, Boisvert promises to get involved more in tempo free studies. He’s read Dean Oliver’s Basketball on Paper, which is as good a start as any.

On the women’s side, got to speak with Megan Gebbia a Marist associate coach and integral part of the program’s outstanding success. Marist has been the MAAC’s flagship program on the women’s side for several year now.

Megan noted that Brian Giorgis and his Marist women’s staff do not utilize tempo free stats per se but it is a concept that interests them. Discussing some of the four factors she was intrigued, especially regarding turnover percentage. "I would like to know our (TO pct)," she said. "That is something we need to improve on."

To get into the analytical groove the following can serve as a 'shoot around'. A Four Factor breakdown of Marist women in 2009-10.

Pace : 67 possessions per game
Offensive points per possession:	1.00
Defensive points per possession:	0.86

The Four Factors for the Lady Red Foxes:

		FTA	Off
	eFG%	FGA	Reb%	TOv%
Offense	47%	26%	31%	20%
Defense	40%	17%	36%	23%

[Note -- Defense is opponents' offensive efficiency]

A little surprised Marist’s offensive efficiency (points per possession * 100) was 100. But all games in a 26-8 season were factored. The MAAC is a respectable conference and out of the league Giorgis opts for good competition. Megan was right on the money regarding turnovers as frequently noted 20% or more is too high. Defensively Marist did the job. The opponents points per possession was only .86, but the turnover rate of 23% and effective field goal percentage , a paltry 40%, shows Marist not only forced miscues but dictated the shots the opposition was getting. And not particularly successful in converting.

Coaches are copy cats. If someone won a national championship and in post game interviews attributed it to tempo free statistical research and studies, every D I staff in America would follow suit. By the next morning. Many schools do not utilize this tool fully. But they aware of the existence. That’s a good start.

MAAC pre-season player of the year
Ryan Rossiter of Siena poses with a Special Olympian
and guest of the MAAC

The 2010 NIT Tip-Off -- A Too Early Look at the Field

Filling Out the Field
News about early season invitationals for the 2011 season have been leaking out in dribs and drabs for the past two months. The NIT Tip Off, operated by the Metropolitan Intercollegiate Basketball Association, owners and operators of the post season NIT, was inaugurated in 1985 as a counter move to the dwindling prospects for post season event (and later purchased by the NCAA as part of the settlement of MIBA's anti-trust law suit against the NCAA). From the first season, the event attracted a field of the top schools, and continues to do so every season. A move to the pod schedule format a number of years ago gives the tournament's preliminary round(s) a look and feel similar to a number of TV and impresario backed events like the Paradise Jam, the Legends Classic among others. Like the Legends Classic, the preliminary rounds are hosted at four separate sites -- the four top seeds. Unlike the Legends however, the pod hosts, heavily favored by high-major status and home court advantage, must win in order to advance to the Championship rounds (semi and finals) in New York City. The pod hosts for this edition of the tournament are Villanova (North), Tennessee (South), Wake Forest (East) and UCLA (West). The pod rounds (the preliminary rounds) will match the host and three invited teams to two games at the host site. First round winners at each pod site will play a second round game to determine who advances to New York City for the semi-final round. The three teams at each site who do not advance to New York City will play two additional Consolation Round games at site of the three highest seeded teams.

The Field
Four of the six above the "Red Line" conferences, the ACC, Big East, Pac-10 and SEC, are represented and will host the four sites for the preliminary rounds. The 12 "visiting" teams are drawn from conferences generally local to each pod site. The field, sorted by region, with the host team listed first:

(North) Villanova	Big East		(South) Tennessee	SEC
Boston University	Am. East		Arkansas State	Sun Belt
George Washington	A-10		Belmont	Atl. Sun
Marist	MAAC		Missouri State	MVC
(East) Wake Forest	ACC		(West) UCLA	Pac-10
Hampton	MEAC		Nevada	WAC
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA		Pacific	Big West
Winthrop	Big South		Pepperdine	WCC

The teams are listed alphabetically within each region. The field definitely has a "bi-coastal" flavor, as the Big East, ACC and Pac-10 have many members located along the Atlantic and Pacific coastal region. Note however that the conference affiliation for each of the three "guests" in those three pods also have strong representation along the left and right coastlines. A product no doubt, related to the host sites. I wanted a bit more detail about the participants in each of the preliminary round sites, so tracked down RPI, won-loss records and returning minutes/points from the team sites, and some possession-based stats from Ken Pomeroy's web site. For each pod site, I have given the record information, followed by the possession-based information.

The East Region
The breakdown suggests this could be a very interesting mini-tournament. In the same way that throwing a party in the middle of a remodeling project is interesting...

	2010 Season			2011 Returning
	RPI	W	L	Mins.	Pts.
Wake Forest	39	19	10	32.9	34.1
Hampton	283	14	18	66.8	59.1
VCU	136	22	9	82.7	85.3
Winthrop	160	17	13	69.7	73.9

Pod hosting for a team with an RPI (2010) of #39 makes good sense. Looking no farther, one could tease out a seed arrangement that would have Wake Forest play Hampton and Virginia Commonwealth (VCU) play Winthrop (of the Big South Conference) in their first round game. Consider however that Wake hired Jeff Bzdelik barely four months ago, and the former Colorado (of the Big 12) coach has had to replace over 65% of his minutes and points from last season's squad. And wait, it gets worse...

	2010 Adjusted
	Pace	Off.	Def.	PWP
Wake Forest	69.9	106.5	91.4	0.852
Hampton	67.5	94.3	99.2	0.358
VCU	68.9	113.5	96.1	0.870
Winthrop	65.4	89.5	95.7	0.316

Coach Bzdelik's Colorado struggled during his tenure, but pace and adjusted offensive efficiency were about the same as Wake's over the same period...but Wake Forest had a much better defense. VCU on the other hand appears to be in pretty good shape. I was a little surprised by the Rams' strong Pythagorean Winning Percentage (PWP), but the squad did win the post season CBI Tournament to close out the 2010 season. All things equal (while checking out Wake's and VCU's PWP), I would favor Wake by just under whatever they get for home court advantage. VCU's coach, Shaka Smart, however, enters his second season as head coach with over 80% of his squad's minutes and over 85% of their points coming back. Coach Bzdelik may not be able to run full practices with his squad until mid October, but I have to think he is breaking down VCU film now. This could be a very bumpy beginning to his tenure at Wake.

West Region
Like Wakes' Coach Bzdelik, UCLA's coach, Ben Howland, has something of a rebuilding job in 2011, so the timing for accepting an NIT Tip-Off hosting job is interesting...

	2010 Season			2011 Returning
	RPI	W	L	Mins.	Pts.
UCLA	137	14	18	53.4	52.3
Nevada	73	19	12	21.5	12.3
Pacific	128	20	11	66.4	70.5
Pepperdine	303	6	23	99.6	100.0

This region also looks like the host will attempt to entertain while undertaking an rebuilding project. Based on RPI alone, one would think the match-ups would be Nevada versus Pepperdine and UCLA versus Pacific in the first round. Since UCLA hosts however, they get to pick their cupcake, so I suspect the Bruins will take the Wave, while Nevada and Pacific play the under-card match. This West however, is almost as muddy as the East. Nevada may have the better RPI, but second year Coach David Carter faces a rebuilding job even more extensive as Wake's Coach Bzdelik. Presumptive top seed? No actually. In fact the Wolfpack may have a tough time getting by the Tigers in the first round (assuming they are matched with Pacific). Pacific, coached by 24 year veteran Bob Thomason (21 years at Pacific), returns nearly 2/3 of the Tigers' 2010 minutes and over 70% of their points.

	2010 Adjusted
	Pace	Off.	Def.	PWP
UCLA	65.6	105.8	99.2	0.679
Nevada	70.0	111.4	101.3	0.749
Pacific	61.9	104.3	96.3	0.714
Pepperdine	66.7	95.0	109.3	0.167

Looking past the first round games, a Pacific--UCLA match-up would put two teams with very similar profiles head-to-head. They have similar offensive and defensive efficiencies (Pacific is actually a bit better). Coach Howland has no problem with a slightly lower possession rate, should Pacific control the tempo. And again, Pacific's Pythagorean Winning Percentage is higher than UCLA's. Should the Bruins and Tigers survive the first round, this second round match may come down to the Pauley Pavilion's intimidation factor. Will the Tigers be able to filter out the distractions and focus on the game? Pacific's Coach Thomason has a 15-9 record versus Nevada, a 5-2 record versus and incredibly, a 0-0 record versus UCLA.

South Region
Tennessee is probably in the best spot as one of the host sites...

	2010 Season			2011 Returning
	RPI	W	L	Mins.	Pts.
Tennessee	14	25	8	57.1	51.0
Arkansas St.	202	15	14	92.2	92.9
Belmont	135	19	12	80.9	76.6
Missouri St.	90	20	12	89.3	94.6

The RPI-based first round would most likely pit Tennessee against Arkansas State, and Missouri State against Belmont, with the winners -- Tennessee and Missouri State -- facing off for the trip to the Big Apple. The Vols return over half of their minutes (57.1%) and points (51.0%)...just barely, but how challenging, despite the high percentage of returning minutes and points, would either Belmont or Arkansas State be to either the SEC or the Missouri Valley school? As for the second round game, looking just at the table above, it would seem to be at least as competitive as either the East or West Region/pod. But looks can be deceiving...

	2010 Adjusted
	Pace	Off.	Def.	PWP
Tennessee	68.7	108.9	88.5	0.916
Arkansas St.	67.5	97.7	100.5	0.420
Belmont	70.2	101.9	97.9	0.615
Missouri St.	65.5	110.8	98.7	0.792

On paper a first round match-up of Belmont and Missouri State may be the best of the three that would be played over the two days. Both return substantial portions of their squad's minutes and points. While pace can be overblown at times, the nearly five possession difference between the Missouri State and Belmont could be trouble. If Belmont is behind, the Bruins might chafe at the Bears' more deliberate pace. Or if the Bears are beind, they may struggle to stay with the Bruins. In either case, the Vols' pace falls between the Bruins and Bears, so the Vols should have little trouble adjusting if the other team controls the pace.

North Region
Many of the details are sketchy at this point. The dates for the preliminary rounds, and for Villanova, even the site -- will this be moved to the Wells Fargo (nee Wachovia) Center downtown, or will the 'Cats host this on campus at the Pavilion? The Wells Fargo Center would make sense...

	2010 Season			2011 Returning
	RPI	W	L	Mins.	Pts.
Villanova	11	25	8	66.0	62.5
Boston University	144	21	14	43.5	50.9
George Washington	148	16	15	75.3	70.9
Marist	334	1	29	93.9	97.0

Villanova has a connection to each of the other teams in the pod. Boston U Coach Patrick Chambers was an Associate Head Coach at Villanova just two seasons ago. The Terriers were a last minute addition to the Puerto Rico Tip-Off field last November. Though BU has a lot of minutes to replace from last season's squad, I doubt the Wildcats and Terriers will be matched in the first round. That first round opponent will most likely be the Red Foxes of Marist. Head Coach Chuck Martin did stints as an assistant for Bruiser Flint at Drexel, and at St. John's under (former) Coach Norm Roberts. Marist was the destination for former Villanova center Casiem Drummond, who later moved on to Georgetown College in Division 2. While some in the 'Nova Nation may not be happy about Marist's 334 RPI, with 92% of the Red Fox 2010 minutes returning, chances are good Marist will finish with a higher RPI this season.

	2010 Adjusted
	Pace	Off.	Def.	PWP
Villanova	72.4	116.6	94.0	0.923
Boston University	71.2	104.0	97.4	0.679
George Washington	68.2	102.6	96.6	0.665
Marist	64.0	88.1	111.2	0.064

The first round match-ups here therefore, will most likely be Villanova and Marist, with George Washington, the A-10's representative in this tournament, matched with Boston University. Should seed hold, expect Villanova and GWU to face off for the second pod win. For the past three or so pre-seasons Villanova and George Washington have waived the second NCAA-sanctioned exhibition game in favor of an opportunity to conduct a closed scrimmage with each other. Coach Hobbs and Wright are extremely familiar with the other's personnel and style of play (and coaching). I suspect if the 'Cats (and Colonials) participate in a closed scrimmage this pre-season it will not be with each other.

The Semi-Finals and Beyond
I suspect, should the pod hosts' hold through the preliminary rounds, that Villanova and Tennessee will the match-up the NIT would want for the final. The semi-final then would match Villanova with either Wake Forest or UCLA, with Tennessee getting the other.

Further Reading...
The Official NIT Tip Off Site
The Tip-Off Brakets (.pdf format)
Other Early Season Invitationals with teams, dates and sites. From CBS.