A New Blog -- The Villanovan Sports Blog

He started quietly enough in January with a template "Hello" post, but over February and into March David's postings have exploded on The Villanovan Sports Blog. David, a sports editor for The Villanovan offers posts that run from (Villanova) team news and announcements, to his own bracket projections, to Big East news, to the Big East Writers Poll (student news writers at most of the Big East schools cast a weekly to rank the conference teams).

The blog promises to be a good supplement to the team and conference coverage offered by The Villanovan. Welcome to the Nova Blogosphere.

Providence #02 Post Game -- the Class of 2009

Senior Night was 2 weeks ago. The appointed victem was Rutgers, and the Wildcats almost apologetically allowed the Scarlet Knights to linger well into the 2nd half, before too gently putting the Knights out into that gentle night. Tonight the Wildcats, Class of 2009, said goodbye to their home in the Pavilion. And they did in their new style, rushing the Providence College Friars out the door in an ungentlemanly fashion. The breakdown by halves...

Opponent	Providence
	1st	2nd	Game
Pace	35.3	40.8	76.1
	Offense				Defense
	1st	2nd	Game		1st	2nd	Game
Rating	113.2	139.7	127.4		96.2	112.8	105.1
eFG%	45.9	68.1	56.8		50.0	59.6	54.5
TORate	11.3	7.4	9.2		31.1	27.0	28.9
OR%	39.1	33.3	36.6		47.1	30.0	37.8
FTA/FGA	18.9	38.9	28.8		24.1	88.5	54.5
FTM/FGA	16.2	22.2	19.2		17.2	57.7	36.4
ARate	71.4	76.2	74.3		53.8	69.2	61.5
Blk%	10.8	2.8	6.8		13.8	11.5	12.7
Stl%	8.5	2.5	5.3		25.5	23.9	24.6
PPWS	0.99	1.34	1.17		1.05	1.25	1.16
2FG%	34.8	56.0	45.8		58.8	53.3	56.3
3FG%	42.9	63.6	52.0		25.0	45.5	34.8
FT%	85.7	57.1	66.7		71.4	65.2	66.7
%2FG	40.0	49.1	45.4		58.8	34.8	45.0
%3FG	45.0	36.8	40.2		26.5	32.6	30.0
%FT	15.0	14.0	14.4		14.7	32.6	25.0

Half Time Adjustments...
With the exception of 2FGM defense, the first half looked like a typical Villanova game -- defense was on, turnovers negate/balance loose shooting defense (note the Stl% under defense, the 'Cats gambled quite a bit on defense and forced a lot of turnovers). As the table above suggests, Nova's offensive efficiency was 113.2, above their adjusted efficiency (111.5), even as their defensive efficiency, 96.2, was not quite up to their adjusted efficiency (90.8), but still below 100, generally considered the dividing line between "good" and "bad" defense. The teams traded buckets and the lead...for 5 minutes. The 14:50 mark of the 1st half had the 'Cats in the lead, and while the Friars hung with them for the next 30 or so minutes, they did not look as if they would even retake the lead, much less take the game. The preview posted earlier noted that shooting efficiency (eFG%) and turnover rates (TORate) might serve as keys to a win (or loss). The red & green highlighted sections in the table (above) monitor how well Villanova performed in those and other categories, relative to season-long numbers. Red again dominates on the defensive side of the table, but mostly confind to the 2nd half numbers. Coming into the game Providence was the #45 ranked team for offensive efficiency (per Ken Pomeroy's Stats Page) with a rating of 111.0 (adjusted). The Wildcats managed to hold the Friars below their offensive efficiency, despite allowing them to convert 2 pointers to better than their average (52.5). The 'Cats did a better job on 3 point defense -- in the 1st half.

Notes
1. Scottie Reynolds again had a great game at the Friar's expense. He scored 29 points, converting at an eFG% rate of 88.5, and a PPWS of 1.65, all in 36 minutes of play. Scottie was murder from the field, hitting 9 of 13 FGAs (5-9, 4-4 3s/2s). The game did not come down to 1-2 possessions; the Friars did not implement a foul for possession strategy.
2. Dwayne Anderson recorded an "Eye Candy" type game, scoring 19 points in 17 minutes of play. Though logging only 43% of the minutes at the wing he put on a performance more typical of Dante, Scottie or Corey F, taking 39% of the available shots and hitting at a 77.3% (eFG%) clip. His PPWS was 1.59. His Pavilion Swan Song featured 7 rebounds (along with Dante he posted strong offensive rebounding percentages on a night when the Wildcat's rebounding was a little down), 3 assists, 1 block and 4 steals. He might be ready for the Big East Tournament.
3. The offense, based on Shot%, appears to have gone through Cunningham, Reynolds, Stokes and Anderson. Reynolds, Stokes and Anderson had very efficient nights. Dante was off just a little -- he has been drawing some attention from defenses lately.
4. The night was about sharing the limelight and the game -- a most appropriate closing for the class that has won more games (97 and counting...) than any other. In the game where this recorded the 1st 25 win regular season in 57 years all 8 members of the regular rotation scored points and grabbed rebounds. The team had a 74% assist rate, posting a 3.71:1 assist-to-turnover ratio. Senior Frank Tchuisi also played for a minute, grabbing a board and scoring from the free throw line. The night was an outstanding example of team offense. Reggie Redding led the team with 11 assists.

Ref Notes
The crew was manned by veterans Karl Hess, Jamie Luckie and Mike Stuart. All three have run at two earlier Wildcat games this season. The two teams were whistled for a combined total of 42 fouls, high compared to the past few games, but well off the season high game run by the Jim Haney/Curtis Shaw/Michael Stephens crew (53 fouls). Both the home and visiting teams' fouls and free throws were within the standard deviation for Wildcat home games this season. The Wildcats have a 6-1 record when at least one from this crew was running the game.

Preview -- Providence #2

The Wildcats will close out their Big East regular season when they host the Providence College Friars at the Pavilion Thursday evening. Providence was Villanova's 3rd mirror (home-n-away) opponent in conference play this season. The Wildcats beat the Friars, 94-91, in a track meet at the Dunkin Donuts Center back on February 4th. Nova leads this series 49-34...

So Far, & What They are Playing For...
...Since their first meeting, Providence (18-11, 10-7, RPI #69) has entered an alternating win-loss "doublet" sequence (LLWWLLWW...) that they have run to a 10-7 Big East Conference record so far. An RPI-based comparison will highlight Villanova and Providence's body of work this season...

		vs RPI			Conference
	RPI	1-50	51-100	>100	Overall	Home	Away
Providence	69	2-7	3-4	18-0	10-7	6-3	4-4
Villanova	14	5-6	6-0	16-0	12-5	6-2	6-3

The highlight of their season so far is the 67-57 win over then #1 Pittsburgh at the Dunkin Donuts on February 24th. That win, combined with their above .500 conference record are two strong points on the resume the Selection Committee will mull over at the end of next week. A run in the Big East Tournament will bolster those credentials. A road win over a Top 25 team would help too. Providence is in contention for a Tuesday night bye in the Big East Tournament. A win at Villanova would virtually guarantee a Big East Tournament bye into Wednesday night. Villanova is in the hunt for the double bye at NYC. They hold the tie-breaker over Marquette, and a win over Providence gives them no worse than a tie with Marquette (no matter how the Warriors do in their last game with Syracuse)...

Roster Notes...
...The Friars have changed very little over the month, Coach Davis has spent February fine tuning his basic 8 man rotation. McDermott and Kale will start in the front court with Randall Hanke rotating in for 10+ minutes. Coach Davis goes with experience in the back court, starting Curry at the point, with Efejuku and Xavier on the wing. Brian McKenzie and Marshon Brooks will see double digit minutes on the court as well. Brooks has emerged as the Friar's spark plug off the bench. His offensive rating, as of 3/1, was 111.5, an outstanding efficiency, though down a bit since early February (no doubt from the attention he has drawn), but still above the team's efficiency (110.9). Efejuku has improved over the course of February, bumping his offensive rating (according to Pomeroy's Providence Team Page) from 108 to 113 while maintaining his shot% (at about 23%), a very good sign of his development.

Villanova's staff has started Dante Cunningham & Shane Clark in the front court for the last 11 games, most of the Big East season, expect it to continue tonight in this, the last game these seniors will play at the Pavilion. Dwayne Anderson, the third starting senior, will hold down the wing, with Scottie Reynolds and Reggie Redding manning the back court spots. Clark's offensive rebounding has been outstanding (with one or two exceptions) during this run. Reggie Redding has developed nicely, contributing where he is needed (points, defense, rebounding) when one of the others struggles. The rotation runs out to 8 men, so expect the Coreys, Fisher and Stokes to see time in the back court (Fish) and wing (Stokes), with Antonio Pena pulling some time in relief (or alongside of) Cunningham in the paint. Pena had 13 very effective minutes in the Notre Dame game, it would be terrific to see him have another productive outing before the Big East Tournament/NCAA...

By the Numbers, Offense & Defense...
With an adjusted tempo of 73.1, Providence is among the "fastest" D1 teams (ranked #12 -- the D1 average is still 66.7). The pace may suit the 'Cats just fine, as they have run off a series of uptempo wins in February (defense does seem to suffer...). Expect the pace for this game to go well into the 70s. The Friars have managed to maintain their offensive and defensive efficiencies throughout February (as the chart below shows), a very difficult accomplishment in the heart of the Big East season.

Comparing the elements that most influence Providence's rating with Villanova's defensive factors...

When Providence has the ball...
				FTA
	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FGA
Friar O	51.0	19.0	36.5	39.1
Wildcat D	47.1	22.0	30.8	36.7

The Friars are more efficient at converting 2FGAs (52.5, #37 by Ken Pomeroy) than 3FGAs (32.2%, #256, also per Pomeroy), a bit paradoxical given Providence is among those D1 teams that are more inclined to shoot 3s (34.8% of their FGAs are 3FGAs, ranking them #115 among D1 schools). The Wildcats, committed to limiting conversions inside the arc, are currently holding opponents to a 45.3% 2FGA conversion rate. Their "shut down the inside" bias sets up an inside struggle with the Friars. Who will shoot tonight? In descendng order, expect shots from Brooks (26.7), Xavier (23.9), Efejuku (23.5) and Hanke (21.7). From beyond the arc, look for Jeff Xavier (-47.5), Brian McKenzie (33.6) or Marshon Brooks (-17.9) as those three are the most "outside" scorers on the squad, according to Kenvin Pelton's inside/outside formula (each player's score is listed in parenthesis). Efejuke, who came to Friar Town with the reputation as a mad bomber, has developed a bias towards inside scoring (18.5). Expect him to take a lot of shots (he is on the court a good deal), but will take the ball to the cup if the lane is open. Hanke is an extremely efficient scorer -- his eFG% is a Roy Hibbert-like 65.6 (remember, he takes no 3s).

The "Four Factors" look at Villanova's offense versus Providence's defense:

When Villanova has the ball...
				FTA
	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FGA
Wildcat O	51.7	18.8	36.1	43.4
Friar D	50.2	20.2	36.2	29.3

The eFG% contrast suggests the 'Cats should have a good night from the field. And if they miss, they should have a few 2nd chance opportunities. The Friar's (unlike the Irish) force turnovers, don't expect another 5 turnover night. What they don't do is foul. The margin of expected victory is >10 however, so FTMs may not play a big role tonight. But if the score is closer (a 1-2 possession game), those foul-induced points may not be available...

Want to Beat the Friars? Then...
Shooting dominates as a critical factor for both squads. But for Villanova, effectively limiting opponent's second chance points is becoming an important key as well. Both teams appear to have difficulty winning when the pace rises to 71 or higher.
1. Defend their shooting -- When the Friar's eFG% was 50.0 or lower they were 5-7. When they were held to 44.7 or less they went 4-7.
2. Hit your shots -- Villanova's eFG% has been 52.0 or better (Georgetown aside) in the last week or so of February. When the conversion rate has been that high, Providence's record is 3-8. Nova's record when they have converted at 49.0 or better is 11-0.
3. Limit Turnovers -- The Friars are 5-5 when their opponents have a turnover rate of 18.8 or less. The 'Cats are 13-1 when they turn the ball over at that rate or lower.

Finally...
...Carrots & sticks -- there are rewards and penalties for both teams tonight. Given the lateness of the hour, each is a good deal more tangible right now. Losing puts the Wildcats back to #5 seed and cheering for Paul Harris and the Orange (not something I want to do the last weekend of the regular season...). The 'Cats are looking at a #3/#4 seed in the Dance, a loss probably strengthens the argument for a #4 rather than a #3. The Friars want a Dance bid; the last chance for the McDermott, Kale, Efejuku (and with his redshirt year...) Hanke class. That group entered with so much promise four years ago, but aside from an NIT bid in their sophomore year, no life after the BET. These guys are very close this year.

Per Ken Pomeroy's Villanova Team Page, this game should go for about 74 possessions (both team's comfort zone), with Nova taking a 14 point win. Pomeroy's degree of certainty (87%) is well within a comfort range (near certainty?). Coupled with the margin of victory, this suggests the game should not be especially close -- not a 1 - 2 possession game. But of course that was also projected for the Georgetown game last weekend...

Tracking Ray Floriani

Frequent contributor Ray Floriani is doing a guest stint over at College Chalktalk as he takes a numbers-first look at the Xavier - Dayton rematch tonight. The game matches the top schools in the A10, and while both schools appear to be in the field of 65 (according to Crashing the Dance), the winner will be in very good shape going into the A10 Tournament and onto Selection Sunday. Dayton took the first game at Dayton.

Half a Loaf?

I checked back with ESPN2's "Interactive Tuesday" last week and again this week to see if they had indeed "heard us". Well, they did...sort of. Last Tuesday the game was shown "without text", but the announcers still had to divide their time and attention between play-by-play/color duties and running the polls (announcing, promoting, reading results). Last night the text returned. It did not scroll across the screen and it was presented with a transparent background.

Let's hope they schedule Big East games for ESPN, and put something else into the chat room.

Notre Dame Post Game -- Good Enough.

The breakdown by halves...

Opponent	Notre Dame
	1st	2nd	Game
Pace	33.0	31.8	64.8
	Offense				Defense
	1st	2nd	Game		1st	2nd	Game
Rating	96.9	141.5	118.8		96.9	88.1	92.5
eFG%	42.2	62.5	52.3		51.9	41.1	46.3
TORate	6.1	9.4	7.7		18.2	28.3	23.1
OR%	20.0	41.2	29.7		22.2	45.0	34.2
FTA/FGA	18.8	21.9	20.3		42.3	32.1	37.0
FTM/FGA	15.6	15.6	15.6		19.2	17.9	18.5
ARate	58.3	41.2	48.3		90.9	70.0	81.0
Blk%	6.3	6.3	6.3		7.7	3.6	5.6
Stl%	3.0	6.4	4.7		9.0	15.5	12.2
PPWS	0.92	1.27	1.10		1.02	0.87	0.94
2FG%	37.5	47.8	42.6		46.2	36.8	40.6
3FG%	37.5	66.7	52.9		38.5	33.3	36.4
FT%	83.3	71.4	76.9		45.5	55.6	50.0
%2FG	56.3	48.9	51.9		37.5	50.0	43.3
%3FG	28.1	40.0	35.1		46.9	32.1	40.0
%FT	15.6	11.1	13.0		15.6	17.9	16.7

Defensive Adjustments
A first half-second half swap, similar to a number of Wildcat wins early last month (Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, South Florida, etc.). The 'Cats took the measure of Notre Dame in the 1st half, and adjusted the plan on both sides of the ball to pull away in the second half. I have included highlights for this split, including a few numbers, both offensive and defensive for each half. Very few red you ask? True, it was a really good game overall for the Villanova squad. The two teams posted identical efficiencies in the 1st half, but arrived at their respective 96.9 efficiencies (points per 100 possessions) by different routes. Note that Notre Dame scored pretty efficiently (better than their season average), posting an eFG% of 51.9, but they turned the ball over more than their season average (18.2 vs 14.0) and did not get many 2nd chance opportunities. The Irish got to the line more than expected, 42.3, but those FTA opportunities did not translate into a huge advantage. Note Nova's FTM/FGA was 15.6, while Notre Dame's was 19.2 for the half (and a bit worse for the game). Villanova arrived at their 96.9 with an unimpressive eFG% (42.2), but compensated by reducing their turnovers significantly. This might have been the best turnover game for the 'Cats this season.

Notes...
1. The game plan took Kyle McAlarney completely out of the game. He was 1-1 at the 19:44 mark, and that was his high point for the night. McAlarney would not hit another shot in the 1st half, (going 1-3 in the opening set) and would not take another shot until the 16:44 mark. Kyle went 1-4 in the 2nd half to close out the game with 5 points on 2-7 (1-3, 1-4) and 0-0 shooting.
2. Antonio Pena had 13 very productive minutes, scoring 6 points on 2-4 and 2-2 shooting. He grabbed 3 rebounds (1-2-3), but possibly more importantly, he kept Harangody off the boards. The Irish bf pulled only 7 boards, 4 on offense.
3. Point distributions for the two teams departed from their respective pattern for the season. Villanova usually gets about 50% of their points from 2FGMs, with the other 50% coming from a nearly even divide between FTMs and 3FGMs (lately tilting slightly towards 3FGMs). Against the Irish they just did not get to the line much, but made up for charity line deficit with scoring from near in (a little bit) and beyond the arc (a good deal more). Notre Dame's distribution (2FGM/3FGM/FTM) for the season is 51.0/33.5/15.5. The distribution versus the Wildcats was a skewed 43.3/40.0/16.7 -- near in field goals were not available.
4. The offense went through Cunningham, Clark & Anderson (when the latter two were on the floor). Scottie, Stokes and Fisher stepped back a bit (proportionate to their minutes). Cunningham had a decent night given all the attention he drew. Clark had a very good night, but Anderson & Stokes (and Fisher) struggled. Reynolds scored a team high 25 points, scored very efficiently (eFG% was 91.7, PPWS was 1.78).
5. Corey Fisher had a miserable shooting night. He was also saddled with 4 fouls, 3 in the 1st half alone. Fish did adjust however, something he had trouble doing on those nights last season. He dished 3 assists, had a block and a steal in 20 minutes of play.

Ref Notes
John Cahill, J.D. Collins and John Higgins (not a relation to Tim) whistled the teams for a total of 35 fouls, below the Wildcat's season average for road games, but probably consistent with Notre Dame home games. Notre Dame tends not to foul, nor do they get to the line much. The 'Cats got more foul calls than the Irish, possibly a surprise to Notre Dame fans, but common this season for the 'Cats (Nova got more calls in about half of their away games). Villanova's FTAs were outside of the standard deviation (low), barely noticed given the margin of victory. This was John Higgin's first Villanova assignment this season; Cahill and Collins both have run at least 1 previous Nova game. Villanova has a 5-1 record when those referees were on the crew that called their game.

Preview -- Notre Dame

As the latest winter storm builds over Philadelphia (real snow, not an obscure reference to the aftermath of the Georgetown loss), the Wildcats take their leave and travel to the hinterlands of Indiana, where they will engage the Fighting Irish of Notre Dame University at the Joyce Center, the sixth program whose season is "on the brink". Notre Dame, losing only senior front court player Rob Kurz, was a consensus preseason choice to finish among the Big East's double-bye teams. The Irish did not disappoint, rolling through their OOC schedule to a late December 8-2 record, the two hiccups (North Carolina, Ohio State) more or less understandable. Their Big East season has been a very different story as Notre Dame stumbled to a 7-9 record so far (15-12 overall), that featured a nasty 7 game losing streak (6 in conference, the last to the PAC 10's UCLA). Their loss to Connecticut Saturday gurantees the Irish will finish with, at best, a .500 conference record. Villanova and Notre Dame have played 30 games in a series that dates back to 1970. Nova leads 16-14...

Common Opponents, Good Wins, Bad Losses...
Notre Dame (15-12, 7-9, RPI #40) pulled out of their 7 game skid with a 33 point thumping of Louisville. That 90-57 win was the opening game in the current 4-2 run to close out the season. An RPI-based comparison will highlight Villanova and Notre Dame's body of work this season...

		vs RPI			Conference
	RPI	1-50	51-100	>100	Overall	Home	Away
Notre Dame	68	3-10	1-1	13-1	7-9	5-2	2-7
Villanova	16	5-6	4-0	14-0	11-5	6-2	5-3

Notre Dame's worst loss is to St. John's -- the Johnnies (RPI #145) handed the Irish a 71-65 road loss on 1/3/09. ...

Lineups, Rotations...
...Notre Dame's starting lineup has not changed this season. Senior Zach Hillesland's (6-9, 233lbs) status aside, head coach Mike Brey has started junior bf Luke Harangody (6-8, 251lbs) in the front court, with senior guards Ryan Ayers (6-7, 210lbs) and Kyle McAlarney (6-0, 195lbs) on the wing. Junior Tory Jackson (5-11, 193lbs) will run the point. Coach Brey has used an 8 man rotation for most games -- the next three are sophomore guard Ty Nash (6-8, 220lbs), junior guard Jon Peoples (6-3, 215lbs) and senior bf/c Luke Zeller (6-10, 235lbs). Who starts in Hillesland's spot, should rumors be true, will depend on what skill set Coach Brey wants to bring to the start of the game. Hillesland is a good rebounder and passer, but does not demand "his shot" often.

Villanova's staff has settled on the starting lineup of Dante Cunningham along with Shane Clark in the front court, and Dwayne Anderson on the wing with Scottie Reynolds and Reggie Redding in the back court. These 5 have started the last 7 games (Senior Night excepted). It is a safe to expect the run continue with the Georgetown game. Clark and Anderson have skills sets that have provem to be a good complement to Dante's own front court skills. While more than a few of the Nova faithful held their breath when Clark first started, he has proven to be extremely effective on the boards, and an efficient 4th (or so) option on offense. He has made offensive rebounding his specialty, and DePaul game aside, has done a masterful job getting the 'Cats 2nd (and 3rd) chances. Reggie Redding has had a series of strong outings lately, the time invested in his development appears to be generating returns. The Coreys, Fisher and Stokes will see time in the back court (Fish) and wing (Stokes), and given that Monroe and Summers have developed into a solid front court, I would also expect to see Antonio Pena get time as well.

By the Numbers, Offense & Defense...
With an adjusted tempo of 68.6, Notre Dame games run nearly 2 possessions above the D1 average (66.7). Lately the 'Cats appear to do better running rather than walking. Expect the pace for this game to go into the 70s. Irish teams under Coach Mike Brey have developed a reputation for potent offenses; this edition carries on that tradition with a ranking of #5 (overall, #2 among Big East teams) for offensive efficiency (118.3 adjusted, per Ken Pomeroy). Note the 'Cats are ranked 7th in the Big East, #28 (113.5) overall. Comparing the elements that most influence Notre Dame's rating with Villanova's defensive factors...

When Notre Dame has the ball...
				FTA
	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FGA
Irish O	50.7	13.7	33.1	26.4
Wildcat D	47.1	21.9	30.8	36.7

I was surprised that Notre Dame's eFG% was not higher (they are ranked #113 overall, #9 in the Big East). The Irish are more efficient at converting 3FGAs (39.3, #25 by Ken Pomeroy) -- that scales to a 59.3% for 2s -- than 2FGAs (46.4%, #238, also per Pomeroy). The Wildcats, committed to limiting conversions inside the arc, are currently holding opponents to a 45.5% 2FGA conversion rate. Their "shut down the inside" bias could, if not adjusted for the competition, work against the Wildcats in this game. The Irish are a bit more inclined than the average D1 team, to take an outside shot -- about 33.9% of their FGAs come from beyond the arc (#143). Who would take those shots? McAlarney 1st and foremost, followed by (using percentage of 3FGAs/FGAs) Ayers (68.6%) and then Zeller (67.1%). Each is relatively accurate too, Ayers converting at a 41.3%, Zeller at a less accurate 34.4%. Notre Dame excels at turnovers -- they don't. They are ranked #1 by Pomeroy at low turnover rates (13.7, just over 1 in 8 possessions lost). Tory Jackson is ranked #203 in Pomeroy's top 500 for assist rate; he will set the table and either McAlarney or Harangody will finish. Between them, those two took nearly 1 of every 2 FGAs taken (45.5%) when they are on the floor together. They form a classic inside (Harangody) - outside (McAlarney) combination. Harangody, last season's BE POY takes 33.2% of the possessions and 34.3% of the shot when he is on the court. McAlarney takes 19.4% of the possessions and 21.3% of the shots. Each has about the same assist rate (15.0 & 16.4 respectively), suggesting they look for their own shot first, but do pass to the open man. Four of five in Notre Dame's starting lineup are ranked in the upper half of the conference for assists, according to Ken Pomeroy. Behind Harangody and McAlarney, Luke Zeller, Jackson and Ayers wait for their shots. Peoples, Nash and Hillesland play more limited roles in the offense, tending to defer to others on the court, each has an assist rate of about 10% or higher (15.2, 9.8 & 15.5 respectively). Nash, Peoples, Hillesland and Zeller along with Harangody take care of the boards. If Luke Harangody does not have the offensive rebound, look for Nash, Hillesland, Peoples or Zeller to have it.

The "Four Factors" look at Villanova's offense versus Notre Dame's defense:

When Villanova has the ball...
				FTA
	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FGA
Wildcat O	51.6	19.2	36.5	44.3
Irish D	48.8	14.7	30.6	26.8

The eFG% contrast suggests the 'Cats shoot a bit better than the Irish, and Notre Dame does not defend the shot quite as well as Villanova. Notre Dame defeds the 3FGA (33.3, #119) better than the 2FGA (48.3, #197). Do not expect another turnover-impeded performance from the Wildcats; Notre Dame ranks #343 (out of #344) in defensive turnover rates. The Irish will rebound however. If Notre Dame is average on the offensive boards, they are decidedly better at defensive rebounding. Expect Harangody (ranked #13 with a tremendous 26.6% rebounding rate) to lead, complemented by Nash, Hillesland and Zeller to give Clark, Anders, Cunningham and Pena all they can handle for 2nd chance opportunities...

Want to Beat Notre Dame? Then...
The leading indicator is again shot efficiency. On both sides of the ball.
1. Contest their shots -- the 'Cats have given a few poor shooting teams very big nights (Rutgers). Holding down their scoring efficiencies would provide a big step to winning this game as this appears to the strongest factor for winning and losing. When Notre Dame shoots to less than their eFG% (50.7) or lower, they have gone 4-10. When held to Nova's defensive eFG% or lower, they are 2-8.
2. Hit your shots -- When the Wildcats have an eFG% of 50.0 or better they are 16-1.
3. Limit their 2nd Chance Opportunities -- the Irish are average offensive rebounders, Harangody's outstanding individual numbers (11.7, #148) notwithstanding. When held to that rebounding rate Notre Dame is 4-9.
4. Limit turnovers -- the Irish do not force turnovers, on defense, so if the 'Cats can limit their turnover rate to less than Notre Dame's defensive rate (14.7), their chances improve. Notre Dame is 7-9 when opponents turn it over at less than their rate. When the 'Cats have turned it over at 19.2 (their rate) or less, they have gone 12-1. Notre Dame is 11-11 when their opponents turn it over at Villanova's rate.

Finally...
...It is the last week of the semester and every under achieving team in the Big East (like every under achieving student) senses the urgency that comes with each diminishing chance. Notre Dame really needs this game. At 7-9 they have to run the table (and do a bit of work in the BET) to work themselves back into the NCAA discussion. Do the Wildcats feel the same urgency? Is pulling a #3 seed and drawing the Philadelphia pod for the 1st weekend incentive enough?

Per Ken Pomeroy's Villanova Team Page, this game should go for about 70 possessions (both team's comfort zone), with Nova dropping a 1 point decision. Pomeroy's degree of certainty (43%) is just below a "comfortable" margin of certainty, and coupled with the margin, 1 point, suggests this could be a 1-2 possession game.

Roster Notes...
Notre Dame front court player Zach Hillesland is out according to a Chicago Tribune report with a severe sternum bruise sustained Saturday against Connecticut.

Other Previews...
The guys at IBBW have a good preview with keys to the game.
Pete over at Let's Go Nova stresses how much Notre Dame wants this game.
Tim at Nova News provides a good many facts about Notre Dame, then gives his prediction (you will have to follow the link and read for yourself).
The anonymous blogger over at the NBE Report writes a detailed preview and provides links to more commercials or ink previews (mostly from midwest papers). Which is which? Hint...the ones underlined twice take you to resume writers and gaming sites.
Fact over at Fact on Villanova Sports writes an essay listing everything he hates about Notre Dame. And a few things he likes. And then he gives a prediction.
For a glimpse at a Notre Dame take on the game, visit the Black and Green Blog, where the blogger writes a concise summary of the important elements.