The 3 Point Line, Luke Winn and the Big East, Pt 3

In his June 16, 2008 article, "How the new three-point line will affect the game", Luke Winn of Sports Illustrated made (successfully in my opinion...) one of the few serious attempts to use quantitative analysis to predict the effect of moving the 3 point line back one foot. Looking exclusively at the 2008 NCAA field, Winn suggested a number of particular teams would be helped or harmed by the change. Restating his points:

1. Mid-majors Will be Hit the Hardest -- they tend to rely more on the 3 point shot as a equalizer against the (BCS?) high-majors who have larger, more athletic front court players. In a 1 - 2 possession game this can be crucial.
2. The Two Main National Title Contenders are Insulated -- next year's early favorites, North Carolina and Connecticut have offenses that don't rely much on points from the 3 point line.
3. There's Now More Space For Low-Percentage Two-Point Attempts -- and Defenses That Force the Most of These Will Thrive -- this one applies directly to both the regular and post season.
4. Marginal Shooters Won't Command Much Respect -- Winn referred to teams, but this could just as well apply to individual shooters.

I decided to crunch some Big East conference games data from last season to see, using Winn's points as a guide, who might be harmed or helped by the change. Winn's first three points were addressed in earlier posts, Part 1 and Part 2. I want to look at his last point now...

Marginal Shooters Won't Command Much Respect
Winn refers to both individuals and teams. If an individual (or his team for that matter...) can't hit consistently from 19-9, why would anyone think they can hit consistently from 20-9? Winn suggests that for wings with poor 3FGM%, this season's green light may be go to yellow (or red) with the greater distance. And teams that rely on hitting shots from the outside, as the counter to double teams and help on penetration may suffer with the added distance. Winn was not impressed with Pitt's numbers at all, citing the Panthers specifically he wrote...

...But the most interesting case study [from among the 2008 NCAA Tournament teams...] will be at Pittsburgh, which was seventh-worst on that list. Last season, defenses were kept honest by the shooting of junior Sam Young (38.3 percent, 44 threes) and seniors Ronald Ramon (37.2 percent, 67 threes) and Keith Benjamin (37.0 percent, 51 threes). The Panthers' overall percentage was dragged down by the abysmal aim of point guard Levance Fields (27.7 percent, 28 threes) and Gilbert Brown (24.4 percent, 19 threes) -- both of whom will likely be in the starting lineup now that Ramon and Benjamin are gone.

If defenses sag down against Fields' penetration, and use help to double super-sophomore DeJuan Blair in the post, can Pitt make them pay? The Panthers are finding their way into plenty of preseason top 10s, but they won't be a contender without being able to pose some semblance of a threat from beyond 20-9....
-- Luke Winn, Sports Illustrated, 6/16/08

Who else in the Big East is vulnerable? Sorting teams by 3 point Pct. made (lowest to highest) produces this list...

	3FG	FGM Pct.				3 FG Att.
Team	Rk	3FG	2FG	All		3FG	Rk
South Florida	16	29.3	47.8	42.2		30.3	13
Syracuse	15	30.3	51.5	45.9		26.7	15
Villanova	14	30.9	46.7	40.9		36.4	3
Cincinnati	13	32.4	45.4	41.0		33.9	8
St. John's	12	33.0	41.9	39.3		29.5	14
Georgetown	11	33.6	52.4	44.8		40.5	1
Connecticut	10	33.6	48.5	44.8		24.9	16
Rutgers	9	34.3	41.9	39.4		32.5	11
Pittsburgh	8	35.0	50.3	45.7		30.4	12
Seton Hall	7	35.3	44.4	41.2		35.8	5
Louisville	6	35.5	54.2	47.4		36.4	2
De Paul	5	35.5	46.0	42.3		34.8	6
Marquette	4	35.8	46.3	42.8		34.3	7
Providence	3	36.9	48.7	44.4		36.0	4
West Virginia	2	37.9	46.8	43.8		33.3	9
Notre Dame	1	40.5	47.4	45.1		33.3	10

The first thing I noticed was that Pittsburgh did a better job of hitting 3s in Big East conference games than they did overall. At 35.0% the Panthers would not have made Luke Winn's 10 Worst List. While I agree with Winn's premise (poor 3FGM% teams will struggle...), I wonder if Pittsburgh is really the poster child for inconsistent 3 point shooting teams who can expect their post players to be double teamed with impunity. True, they lose Keith Benjamin and Ron Ramon, but they return the extremely versatile Sam Young. Gilbert Brown did struggle -- as a freshman. As a sophomore he will get better, or expect to yeild time to some combination of incoming guards Travon Woodall, another point guard (Fields moves back over to the #2 where he played very effectively when Carl Krauser manned the point), Ashton Gibbs, a 6-2 combo guard out of Seton Hall Prep and Jermaine Dixon, a transfer from Tallahassee Community College. And Mike Cook, an East Carolina transfer who was injured in the eleventh game last season, has filed an appeal for a fifth year of eligibility. If his appeal is granted the Panther will have a wing who, though only an occasional 3 point shooter, managed to hit 42.1% of them in Big East play in 2006-07. The Hoyas of Georgetown seem, based on Big East data, to be a much better fit. The Hoyas ranked #1 for taking 3s, but only #11 for hitting them (see yellow highlight). The differential is a killer, especially when you realize they lose their principle inside threat, Roy Hibbert, along with 2 year veteran Vernon Macklin, while simultaneously losing their best outside shooter, Jon Wallace (40.0% in conference games -- good by anyone's estimate). The graduations of Tyler Crawford, Pat Ewing, Roy Hibbert and Jon Wallace, combined with the transfer of Jeremiah Rivers, took 40.5% of the Hoya's 3s, hitting (a higher than average) 36.7% of them.

South Florida at the top? No surprise there, as I touched on the Bulls' offensive and defensive difficulties earlier. Virtually all of the low percentage wings (Solomon Bozeman, Orane Chin, Aaron Holmes, Amu Saaka...) exited en masse at the end of the season, leaving only marginally more proficient rising senior wing Jesus Verdejo (33.3%) and co-ROY Dominique Jones (33.3%) to pick up even more offensive responsibility as incoming freshmen Dwan McMillan, Eladio Espinosa and Gaby Belardo learn Coach Stan Heath's system. Things might be more difficult without big Kentrell Gransberry providing a low post target when defenses collapse around the penetrator. But Gus Gilcrest, a center who started his migration at Virginia Tech (then stopped for a year at Maryland) has an appeal pending before the NCAA over his mandated one year wait period. If he does not play next season there is Teeng Akol, another well regarded low post recruit coming into Tampa. Syracuse is something of a "chicken or egg" team. Given the Orange are ranked #15 in both percentage of 3s taken and percentage of 3s hit, one wonders if they tried but stopped, or resorted to attempting 3s only in exigent circumstances. Of their Iron Man Seven rotation, only pg Jonny Flynn (32.5%) and Donte Greene (28.8%) attempted more than 15 3s. Andy Rautins and Eric Devendorf will be back next season. Neither is shy about hoisting 3s in appropriate circumstances. So the question is who will sit while one (or both) play?

Georgetown is not the only team facing "Winn's Dilemna", as Villanova too relies on the 3 offensively (ranked #3), while not converting them efficiently (ranked #14). With the graduations of Curt Sumpter and wing guard Mike Nardi, forwards Dante Cunningham & Antonio Pena, along with reconditioned center Casiem Drummond, were able to expand their roles within the offense, thus actually reducing (slightly) the ratio of 3s to 2s. But the 'Cats were still high relative to the rest of the conference. And the reduction in frequency also came with a reduction in accuracy. Of the five most frequent 3 point shooters (3FGAs >40), only Malcolm Grant hit at a decent rate (38.1% -- Grant who since transferred to Miami of Florida however, could not hit anything inside the 3 point line, going a dismal 25.9% on 2FGAs...). The others, Scottie Reynolds, Corey Stokes, Corey Fisher and Dwayne Anderson shot hit between 32% & 33% of their attempts in conference games. Stokes, who the staff stayed with throughout the season, managed to begin hitting for more accuracy about halfway through February, and continued to produce more consistently than he had through the first part of the season. Reynolds also showed more consistency (and accuracy) at the end of the season. Scottie went on a 5 game run, beginning with the Providence game that improved his season-long PPWS by about 3% through the end of the season. The good news for the Nova Nation is that Fisher and Stokes were freshmen, going into next season they will have a better idea of what is expected in a high-major program. For Reynolds and Stokes the good news is they were "trending up" for accuracy and consistency at the end of the season. Hopefully they will carry that into next season.

Notre Dame seems to be a polar opposite. Taking a middling (ranked #10) 33.3% of their field goal attempts as 3s (great to have a low post threat like Harangody isn't it?), yet hitting a conference high 40.?% suggests the Irish will be able to stretch defenses in a not very pleasant way...for the defense anyway. Those teams that find they have to resort to a double team (or more) to shut down, or at least slow, Luke Harangody (Zach Hillesland, Ryan Ayers, Luke Zeller and any other forward/centers on the Irish roster...) will no doubt face an arial bombardment as McAlarney, Jackson, Jon Peoples and Ryan Ayers (yes! that Ryan Ayers) cut loose from the outside.

The 3 Point Line, Luke Winn and the Big East, Pt. 2

Luke Winn outlined 4 points in his June 16, 2008 article, "How the new three-point line will affect the game", on the potential winners and losers when the new distance for the 3 point line is implemented next season. To reiterate his points:

1. Mid-majors Will be Hit the Hardest -- they tend to rely more on the 3 point shot as a equalizer against the (BCS?) high-majors who have larger, more athletic front court players. In a 1 - 2 possession game this can be crucial.
2. The Two Main National Title Contenders are Insulated -- next year's early favorites, North Carolina and Connecticut (Winn is among those who have anointed the Huskies a preseason favorite) have offenses that rely very little on the 3 point field goal for scoring.
3. There's Now More Space For Low-Percentage Two-Point Attempts -- and Defenses That Force the Most of These Will Thrive -- this one applies directly to both the regular and post season.
4. Marginal Shooters Won't Command Much Respect -- Winn referred to teams, but this could just as well apply to individual shooters.

I gathered some data from last season's conference games to see who might be harmed or helped by the change. I reviewed the data using Winn's first two points in an earlier post. I want to look at his third point now...

There's Now More Space For Low-Percentage Two-Point Attempts -- and Defenses That Force the Most of These Will Thrive
Winn was thinking of a piece written by Ken Pomeroy over at the Basketball Prospectus last February called "Shot Selection", as he made this point. Pomeroy surveyed 4,000 games over the past 5 seasons (by Pomeroy's estimate about 340,000 FGAs) and calculated the average number of shots taken (and the percentage made) by distance from the basket. According to the data, the avaerage number of FGAs rises from 5+ feet to about 12-13 feet and then declines sharply to about 19+ feet, at which point it rises steeply until about 20.5+ feet. Pomeroy also mapped the percentage of FGM over the same distances and ddiscovered the percentage of FGM declined along with the FGAs. Pomeroy quantified the much lamented Death of the Mid-range Jumper. He went on to note however that FGM% increase rather dramatically as the distance crosses the 3 point line -- Modern players are not (fill in with one or more...) lazy/stupid/ill disciplined...they most likely encouraged by their coaches are passing on the high risk/low reward shot for the high risk/high reward shot. Pomeroy (and emphasized by Winn in his article) goes on to assert...

...it still makes me think that Mike Kryzyzewski, Ben Howland, Randy Bennett, Trent Johnson and Todd Bozeman have it right when they design defenses that rarely allow an open look from beyond the arc. That quintet constructs its defense to play the shot-selection game by encouraging opponents to drive to that dead zone on the floor where most players are uncomfortable hoisting a shot...
-- Ken Pomeroy 2/28/08, Basketball Prospectus

Winn asserts that pushing the line back another foot will increase the size of the "Dead Zone" (documented by Pomeroy's survey to be from about 15 to 19 feet frm the basket) by another foot. So which Big East teams run defenses that, as Luke Winn wrote...

...already understand how to take away threes and force twos without fouling -- suggesting that many of those twos are taken in the mid-range, rather than the paint...
-- Luke Winn 6/16/08, Sports Illustrated

I am looking for teams that allow few points from 3FGAs while simultaneously allowing few points from the free throw line.

	Points From				Pct. Made				Pct. FGA
Team	3FGA	2FGA	FTA		2FG	3FG	FT		2FG	3FG
Marquette	21.9	51.8	26.3		49.8	29.5	71.5		67.8	32.2
Providence College	25.4	51.5	23.1		49.3	32.8	74.8		67.0	33.0
South Florida	25.6	53.6	20.9		48.1	37.4	67.0		71.0	29.0
Georgetown	25.6	48.6	25.8		42.5	29.3	69.8		66.3	33.7
De Paul	26.7	56.2	17.1		52.8	38.2	72.9		69.6	30.4
St. John's	26.9	53.3	19.8		51.6	36.1	66.7		67.5	32.5
Cincinnati	27.1	47.7	25.2		48.7	32.5	69.1		63.8	36.2
Villanova	27.2	47.1	25.7		49.6	32.8	68.4		63.2	36.8
Rutgers	28.3	55.0	16.7		46.6	38.2	68.7		70.5	29.5
Louisville	28.8	49.3	22.0		42.3	29.8	70.0		64.4	35.6
Pittsburgh	29.4	53.5	17.1		49.9	35.6	68.5		66.1	33.9
Notre Dame	29.4	56.7	13.9		48.1	33.8	65.5		67.0	33.0
West Virginia	30.4	50.0	19.5		46.8	37.9	64.9		66.7	33.3
Seton Hall	30.5	47.3	22.2		46.9	38.4	67.0		65.6	34.4
Syracuse	31.3	48.7	20.0		49.1	32.2	70.1		60.4	39.6
Connecticut	35.1	51.0	13.9		40.8	38.6	68.8		67.3	32.7

Marquette appears in Winn's list (at #4), so topping a Big East only list should be no surprise. Since I used data from conference games only, the numbers are not identical to Winn's, -- the higher percentage from free throws should be no surprise. The Big East has a reputation for physical play on the inside and Marquette's bigs, Barro and Mbakwe, were not considered agile defenders. Providence fits the profile, but Keno Davis' Drake teams do not. Providence going into next season will be an enigma given that the playing styles of former HC Tim Welsch and incoming HC Keno Davis are very different. There is little information about how the players are working with Davis right now, and how much (and how well) they adapt to his style of coaching and systems will be known once the Friars begin play. Georgetown appears to be the next best fit, but there will definitely be changes on both the front court (with Hibbert, Ewing and Macklin departed and freshmen entering) and the back court (Jon Wallace departed, Chris Wright stepping in?), so the question in DC may well be how much the system overshadows the individual players. Don't be fooled by DePaul. The points from 3s, combined with low points from free throws, fit the profile surprisingly well. Remember however, that DePaul had a losing record, so their defense as a whole was not especially good (check the table at the bottom of my 5/21/08 post, "Offensive and Defensive Ratings: An Arial View" -- the Demons' defense was nearly 2 standard deviations below the average for the conference). Opponents passed on 3s because they were hitting 2s at a 52.8%, the worst in the conference, -- opponents didn't need to mix their shot selection to beat the Demons. Check the last column (3s as a percentage of all FGAs -- highlighted in acqua). South Florida is a more interesting case. They, like DePaul, come close to the profile, but like the Demons, the Bulls also had a losing record and a not well regarded defense. Pomeroy ranked South Florida #99 (adjusted), about the middle of the Big East conference. The new 3 point line may prove a help to the Bulls, but they will need to improve their offense if they want to improve their standing.

The longer distance may prove an advantage for Syracuse (highlighted in lime) as well. Opponents of the Orange took a conference high 39.6% of their FGAs as 3s. Considering that, at 32.2%, proficiency could not have been the motivation. Lack of opportunities, complements of Coach Jim Boeheim's 2-3 zone defense, must have been the motivation. Pushing the shot that breaks that zone back another foot ought to make Syracuse's defense even more difficult to bust. Success against the zone may lie in finding and exploiting the seams in the zone. Looking, ironically, in the very places which Pomeroy identifies as the "dead zone" in the half court.

After watching Villanova's defense (the infamous "Flying Wildcats"...) the thought of stretching the distance between the lane and the 3 point line makes me nervous. Villanova applies a variety of presses and traps that sometimes leave the players confused about who to pick up when the press collapses. That tends to leave the defense vulnerable to a quick 3 (or a mid-range jump shot) just before beginning a half court set. In the half-court, the Wildcats play a help defense that allows switches on screens and picks. The by product, an occasional extreme mismatch, does not tend to punish nearly as much as the "help" feature that tends to kick in when a guard penetrates the lane has often been punished with a kick out 3.

Tomorrow I will take a look at Winn's last point, and see who (besides Pittsburgh...) might be affected.

The 3 Point Line, Luke Winn and the Big East, Pt 1

Among the MSM's Gang of 500 Luke Winn continues to impress me as the most numerically sophisticated analyst. He does not always get it right statistcally, and he only occasionally pens pieces with a statistical focus. But those occasional pieces are always well thought out and definitely worth reading. His latest effort, a June 16, 2008 article, "How the new three-point line will affect the game", speculates on how the new distance of the 3 point line will affect the 2009 (and beyond?) NCAA tournament. His points are worth listing:

1. Mid-majors Will be Hit the Hardest -- they tend to rely more on the 3 point shot as a equalizer against the (BCS?) high-majors who have larger, more athletic front court players. In a 1 - 2 possession game this can be crucial.
2. The Two Main National Title Contenders are Insulated -- next year's early favorites, North Carolina and Connecticut (Winn is among those who have annoited the Huskies a preseason favorite)have offenses that rely very little on the 3 poing field goal for scoring.
3. There's Now More Space For Low-Percentage Two-Point Attempts -- and Defenses That Force the Most of These Will Thrive -- this one applies directly to both the regular and post season.
4. Marginal Shooters Won't Command Much Respect -- Winn referred to teams, but this could just as well apply to individual shooters.

While several of Winn's postulates seem rather narrow, he provided insight for a broader application of the theory. How can they be applied to the Big East regular season games for the 2008-09 season? What do they suggest about each team's prospects? I decided to pull together some numbers from last season (conference games only) and see. I will apply points 1 & 2 to the Big East today, and points 3 & 4 tomorrow...

Mid-majors Will be Hit the Hardest
Doesn't appear to apply to the Big East at all, does it? Consider the underlying point though -- Perimeter Oriented Teams (POTs -- complements of the Big Ten Wonk) are most clearly impacted by the rule. And POTs that play in close games may be most affected. Now that's something we can work with. Which teams take the most 3 point shots, and which (more to Winn's point...) which have the higher distribution of points from the 3 point line (and therefore, rely more on hitting that shot)? The table below identifies the only Big East member of the POT...

	Pct. FGAs		Pt. Distribution
Team	2FGA	3FGA	2FGM	3FGM	FTM
Georgetown	59.53	40.47	47.82	31.31	20.87
Louisville	63.60	36.40	51.42	28.89	19.68
Villanova	63.60	36.40	49.32	27.95	22.73
Providence	63.96	36.04	50.43	32.25	17.31
Seton Hall	64.17	35.83	46.99	31.30	21.72
DePaul	65.16	34.84	51.43	31.90	16.67
West Virginia	65.26	34.74	50.63	27.62	21.75
Marquette	65.74	34.26	49.62	30.00	20.38
Cincinnati	66.14	33.86	52.92	28.98	18.10
Notre Dame	66.70	33.30	48.83	31.28	19.89
Rutgers	67.52	32.48	51.82	30.59	17.59
Pittsburgh	69.60	30.40	56.47	25.79	17.74
South Florida	69.71	30.29	56.21	22.49	21.30
St. John's	70.47	29.53	53.11	26.27	20.62
Syracuse	73.32	26.68	58.52	18.78	22.70
Connecticut	75.06	24.94	54.37	18.78	26.84

The Princeton Offense was developed at a mid-major college (and garnered it's largest following among members in mid/low major conferences) to, among other things, minimize the impact of athletic (and space eating) paint players and run-n-gun teams. I doubt that moving the line back a foot will change the offensive sets much for John Thompson's team next season, especially since they have lost so many front court players to graduation, the draft and transfer. The Hoyas also lost their most prolific three point shooter when Jon Wallace also graduated in May. Of the next four "near POT" colleges, Louisville and Villanova saw their ratio of 3s to 2s drop last season. For Villanova the explanation is most likely the change in personnel -- Mike Nardi and Curt Sumpter graduated, providing playing opportunities to less prolific (3 point) shooters Corey Fisher, Antonio Pena and Casiem Drummond. Seton Hall and Providence saw their 3FGAs rise, in Providence's case due most likely to Herbert Hill's graduation. As for who relied most on 3FGMs for their points...

	Pct. FGAs		Pt. Distribution
Team	2FGA	3FGA	2FGM	3FGM	FTM
Providence	63.96	36.04	50.43	32.25	17.31
DePaul	65.16	34.84	51.43	31.90	16.67
Georgetown	59.53	40.47	47.82	31.31	20.87
Seton Hall	64.17	35.83	46.99	31.30	21.72
Notre Dame	66.70	33.30	48.83	31.28	19.89
Rutgers	67.52	32.48	51.82	30.59	17.59
Marquette	65.74	34.26	49.62	30.00	20.38
Cincinnati	66.14	33.86	52.92	28.98	18.10
Louisville	63.60	36.40	51.42	28.89	19.68
Villanova	63.60	36.40	49.32	27.95	22.73
West Virginia	65.26	34.74	50.63	27.62	21.75
St. John's	70.47	29.53	53.11	26.27	20.62
Pittsburgh	69.60	30.40	56.47	25.79	17.74
South Florida	69.71	30.29	56.21	22.49	21.30
Connecticut	75.06	24.94	54.37	18.78	26.84
Syracuse	73.32	26.68	58.52	18.78	22.70

And up pops Providence. If the Friars did not shoot the highest ratio of 3s to 2s, they did rely more on the 3FGM as part of their scoring mix. Too low to make Winn's Top 10 list (see first chart in his article), the Friars missed the cut by less than 1%, and they hired the guy who coached #4 on Winn's list, Drake's Keno Davis, to replace the fired Tim Welsh. With several minor adjustments (role playing guard Dwain Williams transfered and Charlie Burch graduated, redshirt pg Sharaud Curry returns), the Friars roster looks much like it did last season. Curry, Efejuku, McKenzie and Xavier will take that 3 if Davis gives them the green light. Which teams, if any of the POT/near POT teams, will likely be affected by close games? I pulled the records of all Big East teams for games decided by 2 or fewer possesions (5 points) and sorted them by percentage of close Big East games played.

				Pct.
Team	W	L	Pct.	Games
Cincinnati	5	3	0.625	0.444
Connecticut	5	2	0.714	0.438
Seton Hall	3	4	0.429	0.389
Georgetown	6	0	1.000	0.333
Louisville	2	3	0.400	0.313
Rutgers	1	4	0.200	0.313
De Paul	2	3	0.400	0.278
Pittsburgh	2	3	0.400	0.278
Villanova	3	2	0.600	0.278
Syracuse	1	3	0.250	0.222
South Florida	1	3	0.250	0.222
Marquette	1	2	0.333	0.167
Notre Dame	2	1	0.667	0.167
Providence	1	2	0.333	0.167
St. John's	2	0	1.000	0.111
West Virginia	0	2	0.000	0.111

The list may be topped by front court powers Cincinnati and Connecticut, but Georgetown and Seton Hall show up yet again, this time with at least 1/3 games decided by close margins. The Hoyas (6-0) may have benefitted from having a relatively more experienced team (ranked #134 nationally by Ken Pomeroy), something Coach Thompson will not have going into this season. Seton Hall struggled (3-4) in close games, and given the distance of the line, combined with a reliance on 3 point shooting, may find themselves no more successful next season than last.

The Two Main National Title Contenders are Insulated
Connecticut aside, who else in the conference passes on the 3 to find the guy in the low post? The table below is the same table I used twice above. This time I have sorted by reliance on 2FGM. Surprised that Syracuse, Pittsburgh and Cincinnati top the list? I'm not, and it does not necessarily mean that those teams will be unaffected by the line change (more later), but Connecticut and South Florida (remember Kentrell Gransberry?) are high on the list...

	Pct. FGAs		Pt. Distribution
Team	2FGA	3FGA	2FGM	3FGM	FTM
Syracuse	73.32	26.68	58.52	18.78	22.70
Pittsburgh	69.60	30.40	56.47	25.79	17.74
South Florida	69.71	30.29	56.21	22.49	21.30
Connecticut	75.06	24.94	54.37	18.78	26.84
St. John's	70.47	29.53	53.11	26.27	20.62
Cincinnati	66.14	33.86	52.92	28.98	18.10
Rutgers	67.52	32.48	51.82	30.59	17.59
DePaul	65.16	34.84	51.43	31.90	16.67
Louisville	63.60	36.40	51.42	28.89	19.68
West Virginia	65.26	34.74	50.63	27.62	21.75
Providence	63.96	36.04	50.43	32.25	17.31
Marquette	65.74	34.26	49.62	30.00	20.38
Villanova	63.60	36.40	49.32	27.95	22.73
Notre Dame	66.70	33.30	48.83	31.28	19.89
Georgetown	59.53	40.47	47.82	31.31	20.87
Seton Hall	64.17	35.83	46.99	31.30	21.72

With inside threats like Jeff Adrien, Hasheem Thabeet and Stanley Robinson the Huskies did not feel the need to shoot a lot of 3s. Those three had eFG%s of 50,4, 60.3(!) and 51.9 respectively. Robinson will stay home and take classes next fall, but Gavin Edwards (eFG% -- 55.0, Shot% -- 17.4, ) will be available, as will newcomer Nate Miles. The key is that Connecticut was efficient at scoring from both inside and outside the 3 point line. Whether proficiency inside the paint allowed open shooters on the wing is certainly possible, but no one would mistake Coach Calhoun's inside-oriented offense for John Beilein's Flying Circus. And since I mentioned Beilein, West Virginia is worth a mention here. Coach Bob Huggins won praise from Big East watchers for keeping parts of John Beilein's offense in place even as he implemented pieces of his defense (and it turns out, offense as well) with a roster largely recruited to play in Beilein's system. Huggins embraced the more athletic players on the roster, Joe Alexander, Joe Mazzulla, John Flowers and Wellington Smith even as he played Da'Sean Butler and seniors Darris Nichols and Jaime Smalligan. In John Beilein's last season the Mountaineers took 42.3% of their FGAs (all games, and 52.2% in Big East games...) as 3 point attempts. This past season they took 28.6% (34.7%, Big East games only) as 3FGAs. Bringing in Kevin Jones and Devin Ebanks insures the ratio will stay in the 70:30 range.

I will look at Winn's 3^rd & 4^th points tomorrow.

Goaltending Redefined?

The Rules Subcommittee recommendations this season are a bit less game-changing than some of the prior years recommendations. They will recommend adopting a rule that requires the home team to wear the lighter colored uni...unless both home and visitor agree to switch. The other recommendation, according to the AP article, via ESPN is to redefine goaltending to include touching the ball while completely above the rim, after it strikes the backboard, irrespective of whether the ball is in upward or downward flight. The existing goaltending rule prohibits touching the ball (completely above the rim, after striking the backboard) as it was in downward flight. The Subcommittee has decided to continue to study the effect of widening the free throw lane (like the international game), which suggests this change will have to wait for a bolder subcommittee, one that will either move the proposal forward or kill it altogether.