The 3 Point Line, Luke Winn and the Big East, Pt 1

Among the MSM's Gang of 500 Luke Winn continues to impress me as the most numerically sophisticated analyst. He does not always get it right statistcally, and he only occasionally pens pieces with a statistical focus. But those occasional pieces are always well thought out and definitely worth reading. His latest effort, a June 16, 2008 article, "How the new three-point line will affect the game", speculates on how the new distance of the 3 point line will affect the 2009 (and beyond?) NCAA tournament. His points are worth listing:

1. Mid-majors Will be Hit the Hardest -- they tend to rely more on the 3 point shot as a equalizer against the (BCS?) high-majors who have larger, more athletic front court players. In a 1 - 2 possession game this can be crucial.
2. The Two Main National Title Contenders are Insulated -- next year's early favorites, North Carolina and Connecticut (Winn is among those who have annoited the Huskies a preseason favorite)have offenses that rely very little on the 3 poing field goal for scoring.
3. There's Now More Space For Low-Percentage Two-Point Attempts -- and Defenses That Force the Most of These Will Thrive -- this one applies directly to both the regular and post season.
4. Marginal Shooters Won't Command Much Respect -- Winn referred to teams, but this could just as well apply to individual shooters.

While several of Winn's postulates seem rather narrow, he provided insight for a broader application of the theory. How can they be applied to the Big East regular season games for the 2008-09 season? What do they suggest about each team's prospects? I decided to pull together some numbers from last season (conference games only) and see. I will apply points 1 & 2 to the Big East today, and points 3 & 4 tomorrow...

Mid-majors Will be Hit the Hardest
Doesn't appear to apply to the Big East at all, does it? Consider the underlying point though -- Perimeter Oriented Teams (POTs -- complements of the Big Ten Wonk) are most clearly impacted by the rule. And POTs that play in close games may be most affected. Now that's something we can work with. Which teams take the most 3 point shots, and which (more to Winn's point...) which have the higher distribution of points from the 3 point line (and therefore, rely more on hitting that shot)? The table below identifies the only Big East member of the POT...

	Pct. FGAs		Pt. Distribution
Team	2FGA	3FGA	2FGM	3FGM	FTM
Georgetown	59.53	40.47	47.82	31.31	20.87
Louisville	63.60	36.40	51.42	28.89	19.68
Villanova	63.60	36.40	49.32	27.95	22.73
Providence	63.96	36.04	50.43	32.25	17.31
Seton Hall	64.17	35.83	46.99	31.30	21.72
DePaul	65.16	34.84	51.43	31.90	16.67
West Virginia	65.26	34.74	50.63	27.62	21.75
Marquette	65.74	34.26	49.62	30.00	20.38
Cincinnati	66.14	33.86	52.92	28.98	18.10
Notre Dame	66.70	33.30	48.83	31.28	19.89
Rutgers	67.52	32.48	51.82	30.59	17.59
Pittsburgh	69.60	30.40	56.47	25.79	17.74
South Florida	69.71	30.29	56.21	22.49	21.30
St. John's	70.47	29.53	53.11	26.27	20.62
Syracuse	73.32	26.68	58.52	18.78	22.70
Connecticut	75.06	24.94	54.37	18.78	26.84

The Princeton Offense was developed at a mid-major college (and garnered it's largest following among members in mid/low major conferences) to, among other things, minimize the impact of athletic (and space eating) paint players and run-n-gun teams. I doubt that moving the line back a foot will change the offensive sets much for John Thompson's team next season, especially since they have lost so many front court players to graduation, the draft and transfer. The Hoyas also lost their most prolific three point shooter when Jon Wallace also graduated in May. Of the next four "near POT" colleges, Louisville and Villanova saw their ratio of 3s to 2s drop last season. For Villanova the explanation is most likely the change in personnel -- Mike Nardi and Curt Sumpter graduated, providing playing opportunities to less prolific (3 point) shooters Corey Fisher, Antonio Pena and Casiem Drummond. Seton Hall and Providence saw their 3FGAs rise, in Providence's case due most likely to Herbert Hill's graduation. As for who relied most on 3FGMs for their points...

	Pct. FGAs		Pt. Distribution
Team	2FGA	3FGA	2FGM	3FGM	FTM
Providence	63.96	36.04	50.43	32.25	17.31
DePaul	65.16	34.84	51.43	31.90	16.67
Georgetown	59.53	40.47	47.82	31.31	20.87
Seton Hall	64.17	35.83	46.99	31.30	21.72
Notre Dame	66.70	33.30	48.83	31.28	19.89
Rutgers	67.52	32.48	51.82	30.59	17.59
Marquette	65.74	34.26	49.62	30.00	20.38
Cincinnati	66.14	33.86	52.92	28.98	18.10
Louisville	63.60	36.40	51.42	28.89	19.68
Villanova	63.60	36.40	49.32	27.95	22.73
West Virginia	65.26	34.74	50.63	27.62	21.75
St. John's	70.47	29.53	53.11	26.27	20.62
Pittsburgh	69.60	30.40	56.47	25.79	17.74
South Florida	69.71	30.29	56.21	22.49	21.30
Connecticut	75.06	24.94	54.37	18.78	26.84
Syracuse	73.32	26.68	58.52	18.78	22.70

And up pops Providence. If the Friars did not shoot the highest ratio of 3s to 2s, they did rely more on the 3FGM as part of their scoring mix. Too low to make Winn's Top 10 list (see first chart in his article), the Friars missed the cut by less than 1%, and they hired the guy who coached #4 on Winn's list, Drake's Keno Davis, to replace the fired Tim Welsh. With several minor adjustments (role playing guard Dwain Williams transfered and Charlie Burch graduated, redshirt pg Sharaud Curry returns), the Friars roster looks much like it did last season. Curry, Efejuku, McKenzie and Xavier will take that 3 if Davis gives them the green light. Which teams, if any of the POT/near POT teams, will likely be affected by close games? I pulled the records of all Big East teams for games decided by 2 or fewer possesions (5 points) and sorted them by percentage of close Big East games played.

				Pct.
Team	W	L	Pct.	Games
Cincinnati	5	3	0.625	0.444
Connecticut	5	2	0.714	0.438
Seton Hall	3	4	0.429	0.389
Georgetown	6	0	1.000	0.333
Louisville	2	3	0.400	0.313
Rutgers	1	4	0.200	0.313
De Paul	2	3	0.400	0.278
Pittsburgh	2	3	0.400	0.278
Villanova	3	2	0.600	0.278
Syracuse	1	3	0.250	0.222
South Florida	1	3	0.250	0.222
Marquette	1	2	0.333	0.167
Notre Dame	2	1	0.667	0.167
Providence	1	2	0.333	0.167
St. John's	2	0	1.000	0.111
West Virginia	0	2	0.000	0.111

The list may be topped by front court powers Cincinnati and Connecticut, but Georgetown and Seton Hall show up yet again, this time with at least 1/3 games decided by close margins. The Hoyas (6-0) may have benefitted from having a relatively more experienced team (ranked #134 nationally by Ken Pomeroy), something Coach Thompson will not have going into this season. Seton Hall struggled (3-4) in close games, and given the distance of the line, combined with a reliance on 3 point shooting, may find themselves no more successful next season than last.

The Two Main National Title Contenders are Insulated
Connecticut aside, who else in the conference passes on the 3 to find the guy in the low post? The table below is the same table I used twice above. This time I have sorted by reliance on 2FGM. Surprised that Syracuse, Pittsburgh and Cincinnati top the list? I'm not, and it does not necessarily mean that those teams will be unaffected by the line change (more later), but Connecticut and South Florida (remember Kentrell Gransberry?) are high on the list...

	Pct. FGAs		Pt. Distribution
Team	2FGA	3FGA	2FGM	3FGM	FTM
Syracuse	73.32	26.68	58.52	18.78	22.70
Pittsburgh	69.60	30.40	56.47	25.79	17.74
South Florida	69.71	30.29	56.21	22.49	21.30
Connecticut	75.06	24.94	54.37	18.78	26.84
St. John's	70.47	29.53	53.11	26.27	20.62
Cincinnati	66.14	33.86	52.92	28.98	18.10
Rutgers	67.52	32.48	51.82	30.59	17.59
DePaul	65.16	34.84	51.43	31.90	16.67
Louisville	63.60	36.40	51.42	28.89	19.68
West Virginia	65.26	34.74	50.63	27.62	21.75
Providence	63.96	36.04	50.43	32.25	17.31
Marquette	65.74	34.26	49.62	30.00	20.38
Villanova	63.60	36.40	49.32	27.95	22.73
Notre Dame	66.70	33.30	48.83	31.28	19.89
Georgetown	59.53	40.47	47.82	31.31	20.87
Seton Hall	64.17	35.83	46.99	31.30	21.72

With inside threats like Jeff Adrien, Hasheem Thabeet and Stanley Robinson the Huskies did not feel the need to shoot a lot of 3s. Those three had eFG%s of 50,4, 60.3(!) and 51.9 respectively. Robinson will stay home and take classes next fall, but Gavin Edwards (eFG% -- 55.0, Shot% -- 17.4, ) will be available, as will newcomer Nate Miles. The key is that Connecticut was efficient at scoring from both inside and outside the 3 point line. Whether proficiency inside the paint allowed open shooters on the wing is certainly possible, but no one would mistake Coach Calhoun's inside-oriented offense for John Beilein's Flying Circus. And since I mentioned Beilein, West Virginia is worth a mention here. Coach Bob Huggins won praise from Big East watchers for keeping parts of John Beilein's offense in place even as he implemented pieces of his defense (and it turns out, offense as well) with a roster largely recruited to play in Beilein's system. Huggins embraced the more athletic players on the roster, Joe Alexander, Joe Mazzulla, John Flowers and Wellington Smith even as he played Da'Sean Butler and seniors Darris Nichols and Jaime Smalligan. In John Beilein's last season the Mountaineers took 42.3% of their FGAs (all games, and 52.2% in Big East games...) as 3 point attempts. This past season they took 28.6% (34.7%, Big East games only) as 3FGAs. Bringing in Kevin Jones and Devin Ebanks insures the ratio will stay in the 70:30 range.

I will look at Winn's 3^rd & 4^th points tomorrow.