University of Cincinnati Post Game: 'Cat Fight

Ranked Teams
The Nova Nation watched the second game between two nationally ranked teams this season in Villanov's on campus arena Sunday. They got their money's worth in both of those games. Today the Viilanova Wildcats beat the Cincinnati Bearcats 72-61 at the Pavilion. Corey Fisher broke his shooting slump when he posted 20 points before the intermission on 4-6 overall (3-4 for 3s, 1-2 for 2s) and 9-9 from the line. The numbers held up through the second half. Point guard Maalik Wayns posted 15 point. Between them, the Villanova guards matched the three highest scorers on the Cincinnati squad, Rashad Bishop (14), Yancy Gates (11) and freshman Sean Kilpatrick (11). Though they started strong by forcing two field goal misses and two turnovers in Villanova's first four possessions, while scoring six points on three made field goals, Cincinnati could not maintain the momentum. Villanova launched an 11-2 run to take the lead. Cincinnati would tie three more times over the next four minutes, but they would never retake the lead. More unnerving to the Bearcats than Villanova's defense perhaps, was the officiating. With 10 team fouls recorded by the 2:45 mark, Cincinnati Head Coach Mick Cronin exploded over a non-call and took a technical 30 seconds later. Down by 11 and completely unnerved it seems, the question was whether the Bearcats could hang on until half-time and use the intermission to gather their composure? The answer was "No", as Villanova took one more run, 8-2, before the team adjourned to their respective locker rooms to reflect and regroup.

Shockingly, Cincinnati emerged from half-time and dropped another five points before the second half was two minutes old. Three very quick fouls on Ibrahima Thomas, two personals and a technical, disqualified the senior forward and starter. With the help of their press and trap defense that forced 10 Villanova turnovers and, coupled with a 180 degree turn of the referees, the Bearcats were able to outscore Villanova by 10 the rest of the way. "We put ourselves into a 16 point deficit and could not catch up" was Coach Cronin's analysis of the game. And he was correct, the Bearcats could rally to close the gap to seven twice, but could never get closer.

The Nova Blog posted their recap -- "post game: Villanova 72 vs. Cincinnati 61", as did VUHoops.com posted a recap with player stats, which continues their feature of polling the fans to decide player grades. From the ink media, Cincinnati beat writer, Bill Koch, posted a game recap with a Bearcat perspective. There was a DPO sighting (she has dropped the "Pennett" from her nom de plume at ESPN) at the Pavilion. After Coach Cronin finished his post game presser, he and former PDN sportswriter who covered Villanova, Dana Pennett O'Neil, had an impromptu followup session that, along with (as always) a very well written short piece, was posted on ESPN's Basketball Nation Blog. The Athletic Department website posted the official boxscore and the AP wire story, "No. 7 Villanova Beats No. 24 Cincinnati...", led off with Corey Fisher's first half scoring breakout. The breakdown by halves...

Opponent:			University of Cincinnati
	1st	2nd	Game
Pace	34.7	36.1	70.8
	Offense				Defense
	1st	2nd	Game		1st	2nd	Game
Rating	112.6	91.3	101.7		66.4	105.2	86.2
eFG%	63.9	43.8	52.4		38.0	37.5	37.7
TORate	26.0	27.7	26.8		26.0	11.1	18.4
OR%	9.1	38.5	25.0		21.1	44.0	34.1
FTA/FGA	111.1	54.2	78.6		32.0	47.2	41.0
FTM/FGA	88.9	50.0	66.7		16.0	30.6	24.6
ARate	77.8	70.0	73.7		44.4	38.5	40.9
Blk%	0.0	4.2	2.4		16.0	11.1	13.1
Stl%	14.1	14.2	14.1		8.9	2.7	5.6
PPWS	1.42	1.09	1.25		0.80	0.86	0.84
2FG%	44.4	50.0	48.1		50.0	48.0	48.8
3FG%	55.6	16.7	40.0		11.1	9.1	10.0
FT%	80.0	92.3	84.8		50.0	64.7	60.0
%2FG	20.5	54.5	36.1		69.6	63.2	65.6
%3FG	38.5	9.1	25.0		13.0	7.9	9.8
%FT	41.0	36.4	38.9		17.4	28.9	24.6

Green highlighting identifies the good elements of Villanova's game yesterday, while red highlighting identifies elements the are below the levels the team has played to to date. Pace was the just slightly higher than projected by Ken Pomeroy, and the margin was slightly higher, but within each team's comfort zone...

Cincinnati's second half rally was, from a "Four Factors" perspective, paradoxical. How did the Bearcats manage to post 1.05 points per possession when their field goal efficiency rate was in the 30s (percent range that is -- 37.5% eFG%) and even worse than their first half shooting? Check the red highlighted offensive rebounding rate under "Defense" and "Second Half" above. The Bearcats managed to collect nearly 50% of their misses for second chance opportunities. The box score notes Cincinnati scored 15 second chance points, 11 coming in the second half. Both team's turnover rates contributed significantly to the final scoring margin. With two of the conference's elite point guards the Wildcats still managed to lose more than 1-in-4 of their possessions through the entire game, while the Bearcats cut their turnover rate to just over 10% (11.1%) in the second half.

Things We Learned...
1. Cashmere Wright is a jet -- if he could only shoot better...both Corey Fisher and Maalik Wayns' unis had scorch marks after the game because Cincinnati's rocket, Cashmere Wright, blew by them all game long. Villanova's two point guards collected eight fouls, and I will tell you Wright got to the line for 10 free throws. You figure it out.
2. Yancy Gates lost a lot of weight -- see the picture at the bottom, Gates is on the right (Ibrahima Thomas is on the left). I did not recognize him and had to ask a Cincinnati student reporter who he was. The weight loss has significantly helped his endurance (he played 33 minutes) and mobility. The junior bfc missed a double-double by one rebound (11 points, nine rebounds).
3. Villanova needs a point guard on the floor at all times -- with both Fisher and Wayns in foul trouble (all five starters had four fouls for the last three minutes of the game), Coach Wright substituted often and several times had eclectic, no point guard line ups on the floor. A good defensive sequence -- Armwood blocked a Gates' jumper right to Mo Sutton, who looking down the court for a targeter for his outlet pass, hesitated when he could not find a pg (both were on the bench). Spotting Cheek on the sideline, he squared his shoulders for the pass, but Cincinnati's Justin Jackson anticipated the target and stepped in for a football-like interception, ball back to Cincinnati. The Bearcats used a 3/4 and full court press when they went down by 21, and found it was extremely effective when the Wildcats had to use taller wings with less than pg-worthy handles. Ball handling was adequate under normal circumstances, but facing a press, both inbounding and getting the ball down the court brought back unpleasant memories of past coaching regimes.
4. Coach Wright is human afterall -- with just under a half minute left in the first half Wright subbed Corey Fisher, who had picked up his second foul five minutes earlier, back into the game. The Coach had rotated Fisher and Wayns (who also had picked up his second 10 seconds earlier than Fisher) through the last five minutes, but Fisher's last substitution of the half was a killer, as the senior picked up number three with 0:11 left (a Cashmere Wright blow-by). During the post game press conference a local reporter (Dan Gelston perhaps?) pressed Coach Wright about the decision to sub Fisher "one last time". After several attempts to explain why he felt stopping a Bearcat rally to close the half was so important (and having a point guard on the court was critical to cutting down on turnovers), the reporter persisted and the Coach finally shrugged his shoulders, laughed and said "Yeah I screwed up...ok I screwed that one up...". Much easier to say I imagine, when your team wins.

Things We Hope...
...besides world peace...
1. Both teams take some positives from the game -- the Bearcats may not have been "undefeated good", but they are a solid squad. I had them pegged as a third quartile team (#9 - #12), and when asked by the ECB to "reassess" in the preconference roundtable, I passed. Their schedule gives anyone who follows D1 basketball this season a moment to consider. The Bearcats definitely cracked late in the first half, but they did not break. Faced with a 21 point deficit and the loss of a big piece of their front court defense, they regrouped and clawed their way back -- well almost back -- into the game. For Villanova's part, the "second line" had the opportunity to feel the pressure of an ever-tightening game. Coach Wright executed several "hockey-line" substitutions to preserve his starters, and Armwood, Cheek, Sutton and Bell had to make plays and learn first-hand that "value the ball" is more than a practice-time coaching mantra. It means something.
2. Corey Fisher's shooting slump is really over. The senior broke out in a big way in the first half, shooting 4-6 overall (3-4, 1-2) and 9-9 from the line for a 91.7% eFG% and 1.95 PPWS (he scored approximately 1.95 points for every field goal attempt) scoring 20 points before the intermission. His body language screamed confidence, and he shot that way. Fisher was 0-2 (0-1 on threes, 0-1 on twos) and 1-2 from the line, in the second half. Plagued for virtually the entire half with 3-4 fouls, he played nine minutes of the second stanza.

Cincinnati players Ibrahima Thomas (l) and Yancy Gates (r)
take questions after the game

Roster Moves -- Eve of Fall Practice, 2010

Schools is Back, How About the Players?
Classes are back in session and supervised workouts (small groups only) have been running for nearly a month. There are a number of new injuries and transcript issues to note as the teams prepare for Midnight Madness...

Cincinnati -- Rashad Bishop was officially re-instated on the squad and his scholarship was restored according to Cincinnati.com blogger and sportswriter Bill Koch. The senior forward played with the squad during their Labor Day Weekend Tour of Canada.

DePaul -- The Blue Demon roster lists power forward Cleveland Melvin, Coach Purnell's first signee last May. [edit] Cleveland did not spend the summer in Chicago and get a jump on classes as a number of incoming freshmen tend to do, and could not be added to the roster until he registered for courses, thus explaining his earlier absence from the public roster. Still missing is Ryan Siggins, a 6-1 walk-on guard who scored 39 points in 140 minutes of play last season. Siggins, who appeared in 10 games, had his best outing in a 31 minute run at Villanova. Siggins was one of four walk-ons added to the squad last October. Two other walk-ons, Jimmy Drew and Joe Belcaster, are listed, while the third walk-on, Nate Rogers, transferred after last season.

Louisville -- Coach Rick Pitino lost another incoming player when 6-0 guard Russ Smith broke a bone in his right foot which will sideline him for an estimated six-to-eight weeks. That puts a return out to early-mid December at the earliest. The coach also announced at the Annual Louisville Tipoff Luncheon that freshman Gorgui Dieng from Senegal was ruled ineligible after being told (by the Dieng's prep school principal) that "...the NCAA approved his courses". Louisville, who according to the report will appeal the decision, though the Clearinghouse has not indicated whether Dieng's Senegal or his Huntington, WVA coursework was in question. Coach Pitino also announced that junior forward Jared Swopshire will not be available until the opening game versus Butler, due to a "sports hernia-type injury", reducing the squad to 11 healthy (qualified) bodies. Associate Coach Ralph Willard also stepped aside to be Director of Basketball Operations, allowing Mark Lieberman, hired in June, to move into a full-time Assistant Coach position.

Seton Hall -- In what might be considered the Final Act in the Bobby Gonzalez drama, Athletic Director Joe Quinlan announced he would resign October 8, his replacement would be chosen after a nationwide search. Quinlan, who held the job for five years, was an early opponent of the Gonzalez hire, and after a power struggle, was superseded by Law School Dean Patrick Hobbs during the summer of 2009, but survived the basketball coach who was fired in March of 2010.

Villanova -- With a redshirt becoming the most likely outcome for freshman James Bell, Villanova welcomed graduate student and former walk-on Russell Wooten back for one last season. Economics being the mother of circumstance, Wooten graduated last May, found no work in his native Southern California, and decided to tuck himself into a graduate school and earn an advanced degree while the economy works itself out. The Villanova School of Business was happy to take Wooten, and the post graduate will use his last year of eligibility with the Wildcats.

Assessing the Impact
Bishop's return is good news for the point-starved Bearcats. If the senior was a bit mercurial, hopefully the suspension and the regemine he had to follow to be re-instated will give him pause to think going forward.

Coach Purnell needs players, Melvin's presence can only help.

The news for Louisville is just all bad right now. This is shaping up to be the thinnest squad since the Cardinals' 2006 team. And given the resurrection of the Kentucky program, the timing for a dip in the program could not come at a worse time. Swopshire's injury was described as something similar to the one suffered by Tarquan Dean. That injury severely reduced Dean's effectiveness, even after the guard returned to active play. With 11 members, the staff may have (barely) enough bodies for squad-wide scrimmages, but they will have to be careful to keep everyone healthy. Dieng's appeal may be approved (not entirely plausible, but who knows?), but he will not be able to practice with the squad until it is official. The worst case for Dieng and Louisville is that as someone who took courses in the school prior to being disqualified, Dieng, should his appeal be denied, would be barred from ever playing for Louisville.

Though the Athletic Directorship is an administrative job (and therefore should have no direct effect on what happens on the floor), Seton Hall's athletic has drawn negative conference office comments recently for cutting back on several programs, most notable the track programs. While DePaul and St. John's opened their wallets to attract top-level veterans to fill their head coaching openings, Seton Hall opted to go the below the "Red Line" route when hiring a replacement for Bobby Gonzalez. A similar decision when selecting the next Athletic Director may be interpreted in the conference front office that the country's oldest diocesan university is insufficiently committed to funding and supporting a full slate of (male and female) athletic programs. Word that the search process may take an entire academic year cannot be welcomed by the Powers That Be in the Big East Offices.

Wooten, a walk-on forward will enjoy the very unusual experience of being honored twice on Senior Night, but may see very few minutes during the season.

Big East Freshmen: Ten Six to Watch

Disclaimers, Exclusions & Disclosures...
Before I get to this year's potential break out players, I feel I ought to follow up on the list I put together going into last season. I identified this group of ten as players who, though overlooked for the Big East All Rookie Team (2007), could have a big impact on their teams in the 2007-08 season. Two of those players, Lazar Hayward and Earl Clark did indeed receive more recognition than their freshmen years. Hayward, a 6-6, 225lbs sophomore from Marquette was named to the Second Team All Big East, while speculation on whether he would declare for the NBA draft, followed Clark all season. Dwain Williams (PC), Larry Wright (St. John's) and Vernon Macklin (Georgetown) all saw their minutes grow as did their roles in their respective offenses. Each "progressed" from a role player-type player to a regular-type player. Solomon Bozeman (USF), Larry Wright and Lazar Hayward improved their shooting efficiency, while most maintained or saw their eFG%s decline slightly. Only Sololmon Bozeman saw a significant cut in minutes, though Jerry Smith (Louisville), David Cubillian (Marquette) and Larry Davis (Seton Hall) saw their roles (mostly role player-level involvement in their offenses) tread water or decline slightly. Qa'rraan Calhoun (St. John's) left school over the summer of 2007 while five others Solomon Bozeman (South Florida), Larry Davis (Seton Hall), Vernon Macklin (Georgetown), Dwain Williams (Providence) and Larry Wright (St. John's) transferred during the off season.

Player	Coll	%Min	ORtg	%Poss	%Shot	eFG%	PPWS	FTRate
Gilbert Brown	Pitt	54.7	115.8	15.4	15.4	51.9	1.12	37.0
Corey Stokes	Nova	45.9	101.8	17.6	21.9	46.5	1.01	20.8
Chris Wright	GTown	20.2	100.1	22.1	19.9	56.4	1.12	32.9
D.J. Kennedy	John's	66.0	98.4	18.3	16.5	48.9	1.07	48.0
Rashad Bishop	Nati	58.0	97.3	15.1	14.7	45.7	0.99	32.2
Antonio Pena	Nova	48.4	95.4	21.5	18.8	47.5	1.05	52.5

Note that all possession-based stats come from the Scouting Report Pages for each team, located on Ken Pomeroy's website. Clicking on a player's team will link you to the corresponding Scouting Report.

Ten Six to Watch
Going over the numbers for this off season's rising sophomores, made me appreciate the depth of the class from last summer. The class this time around, below the All Big East Rookie Team and these six, seems thinner than last summer.
When Pittsburgh's Mike Cook went down with a season-ending ACL tear freshman Gilbert Brown joined a rotation with seniors Keith Benjamin and Ron Ramon to fill out the Panther attack on the wing. If Brown did not live up to the preseason press offered by Mike DeCourcy, he did post some pretty good numbers. Ramon and Benjamin are gone; even if Mike Cook's appeal for a 6^th year of eligibility is upheld, Brown will see even more minutes than last season.
The Villanova team will be much the same next season as it was last season. Only the now-transferred Malcolm Grant's minutes are available to divvy up. The perfect opportunity for a do-over that much heralded (when he entered last fall) swingman Corey Stokes ought to seize to his advantage. Stokes started strong in the Wildcat's exhibition games, but lost momentum as the regular season got under way. He came on strong at the end, gaining the starting job in Villanova's last four games. I make no apologies for my Villanova bias, but including the second Wildcat (forward Antonio Pena) in a rather small list is less favoritism and more a candidate who fits the profile as a capable player with an opportunity to contribute. When Casiem Drummond went to the bench with a foot fracture Pena stepped in on (very) short notice to pick up Drum's minutes. He did well, surging in the first few games, but "settling" as the Big East season kicked in and wore on. Pena seemed to tire at the end (freshman fatigue?), but maintained a presence in the offense (21.5% Poss%, 18.8% Shot%) and was a force on the boards. By way of comparison, rising senior Dante Cunningham posted his first double-double as a Wildcat nine games into his junior season (versus Hartford). Pena register his first double-double ten games later (2^nd Pittsburgh game). For Pena, becoming more efficient offensively involves not simply hitting a higher percentage of shots, it also means (more importantly?) cutting down on turnovers.
I am reluctant to name any St. John's player to this list...writing anything positive seems to condemn the player to transfer at the the next available opportunity. DJ Kennedy did have a very good freshman campaign, and though he was not named to the All BE Rookie Team should, despite new challenges from redshirt sophomore Rob Thomas, be even more effective next season. St. John's has developed a reputation for tough defense under head coach Norm Robert, and Kennedy's Stl% (2.8) is pretty good for a #2/#3, no doubt a stat that caught Coach Robert's attention. Kennedy rebounds well (compare his numbers to Pena's -- below), which ought to be a plus when deciding whether to give him more time next season.
Rashad Bishop worked himself into the starting lineup by the fourth game of last season, and despite an up and down season, managed to work himself back into the starting line up by the end of the season. Bishop averaged 5.4 points and 3.4 rebounds in about 23 minutes of play. Bishop's main competition for the #3 will continue to be fellow wings (and fellow sophomores...) Darnell Wilks and Alvin Mitchell, either of whom may well be the breakout (though Mitchell seems more likely than Wilks...) player next season.
Normally I would look for more minutes than Georgetown's Chris Wright has played before including an individual on the "...To Watch" List. Wright, a well regarded point guard going into last season, had a "donut" season (play in the beginning and end, injury in the middle). Despite some good scoring numbers Wright's ORtg is just over 100, most likely due to his turnovers. Jon Wallace has graduated and Jeremiah Rivers transferred. With no entering point guards this season, Wright will most likely team with Jesse Sapp; their only relief will come from fellow sophomore Omar Wattad, redshirt freshman Nikita Mescheriakov and incoming 2 time All-Met (Washington DC) guard Jason Clark.

Player	Coll	OR%	DR%	TORate	%Block	%Stls
Gilbert Brown	Pitt	5.4	10.4	15.8	1.3	1.8
Corey Stokes	Nova	3.1	12.4	15.7	0.6	1.3
Chris Wright	GTown	2.5	13.2	26.1	0.4	3.2
D.J. Kennedy	John's	8.1	17.8	23.0	1.4	2.8
Rashad Bishop	Nati	5.3	11.6	21.1	1.8	1.7
Antonio Pena	Nova	8.5	17.3	24.8	2.1	1.6

And Then There is...
John Flowers of West Virginia logged about 30% of the minutes at the #3 and posted an ORtg of 93.3 as a 2^nd/3^rd option on offense. Flowers played behind Da’Sean Butler. With Devin Ebanks and Kevin Jones coming in next season Flowers (and Butler...) will have some very competitive practices.
Preston Knowles of Louisville logged some impressive numbers playing about 20% of the minutes on the wing. Knowles played behind Jerry Smith (among others) while logging an eFG% of 57.6, yeildng an ORtg of 115.3. Like Smith, Knowles plugs into the offense as a sniper -- shooting enough from the outside to keep defenses honest, but not taking touches (Poss% 13.6) and scoring opportunities (Shot% 16.6) from the team's offensive headliners. Smith and Knowles will no doubt split time with transfer Reggie Delk and incoming Jared Swopshire. Coach Pitino tends to spread the playing time around, allowing each player a shot to stake his claim to the position.
Mike Davis was the first big off the bench to relieve the often injured John Garcia, a junior next year. Garcia was healthy all last season, the first full season he has been able to log at the Hall. Davis managed to post some very good numbers on the boards, especially on the offensive boards (OR% 10.4). Bob Gonzalez teams are back court-oriented, but as the 4/4 option he posted a very decent 108.7 ORtg on an eFG% of 47.1. Augustine Okosun transferred in the off season. That leaves incoming Melvyn Oliver (340lbs) from Mississippi Elite Christian as Davis' competition for Garcia's backup. If Garcia hits another run of bad health, Davis will most likely get the first crack at the starting line up.