Preview -- West Virginia

Off Script...
#8 Villanova hosts West Virginia University Saturday at noon in a game that will decide who keeps pace with Pittsburgh (at the top of the Big East standings) and Notre Dame, currently the sole #2 in the conference. Both teams have taken circuitous routes to this place. The Wildcats thought they would go nine (at least) deep with their blue ribbon sophomore class progressing nicely, but pushed by their two freshmen recruits, James Bell and JayVaughn Pinkston. Bell, feared at one point to lose the season, has rehabbed and gets a few minutes each game. Pinkston, out on discipline issues, should rejoin the team next season. The Sophomore Progress Report is mixed, with the jury still out on several well regarded players. For West Virginia, the major action has been off the court. ...

Common Opponents...
...Conference opponents only for common foes, as the two teams run in different D1 "circles". Villanova fills a large part of it's OOC dance card with Philadelphia teams (the Big 5), while West Virginia has similar local rivals centered in the greater Pittsburgh metro area (Robert Morris, Duquesne). Of their conference opponents, good luck trying to decypher what has gone on before. +30 versus Providence? -15 on the road?! That both teams sport a 4-2 record against that common slate is strange indeed. The absence of a discernable treand confirms what those who have watched the games this season suspect -- the Big East, as has most of the power conferences this year, is having a chaotic, wide open race for most of the conference tournament seeds so far...

	Nova		WVU
Opponent	W/L	Diff.	W/L	Diff.
South Florida	W (A)	+12	W (H)	+10
Georgetown	L (H)	-3	W (A)	+6
Providence	L (A)	-15	W (H)	+30
Louisville	W (H)	+14	L (A)	-1
Cincinnati	W (H)	+11	W (A)	+11
Marquette	W (H)	+5	L (A)	-5

West Virginia's best OOC win was a three point victory over Vanderbilt (SEC, 15-6, 3-4, RPI #24), a win that looks better to the RPI than Ken Pomeroy. Pomeroy values the 'Eers win over Duquesne (A-10, 15-5, 8-0 #28 Kenpom) a bit more. Best conference wins include the 65-59 road win at Georgetown (17-5, 6-4, RPI #5) and at home versus Cincinnati (16-3, 3-3, RPI #35), a convincing 15 point win. Their single loss, a 12 point loss at Pittsburgh earlier this week, did little to diminish their tournament resume.

Villanova's marquee out of conference win is still the Temple University (A-10, 16-5, 6-2, RPI #35) game, a four point decision, in December. The Wildcats' best win overall was their 11 point road victory over Syracuse (17-4, 6-4, RPI #16) in conference play last month. Villanova's worst loss, a 15 point spanking at the hands of Providence (BE 14-9, 3-7, RPI #99) also last month. Other losses in conference play include a two point loss to UConn in Storrs and a three point home loss to Georgetown last weekend...

Lineups, Rotations...
...The team that takes the court Saturday is surely not the one envisioned by Coach Bob Huggins in the weeks before Fall Practice. David Nyarsuk and Noah Cottrill are no longer in the program, though Nyarsuk may be in Morgantown next season. Of the two Cottrill was more likely to have an impact this season, but, recently suspended (for the second time since last September) guard Casey Mitchell aside, Coach Huggins has a pool of seven players among whom he typically allocates starts and playing time. Should Mitchell's second indefinite suspension this season be lifted by game time, the senior 6-4, 220 pound guard will probably start alongside junior Darryl Bryant (6-2, 195 pounds), a back court pairing the WVU staff has used in nearly 17 of the Mountaineers' 22 games this season. Red shirt senior Joe Mazzulla (6-2, 200 pounds) will come off the bench to sub in at the point when either Bryant or Mitchell sits. Sophomore wing Dalton Pepper (6-5, 230 pounds) will see minutes, most likely more than 10, at various points in the game. The wing has seen his minutes decline slightly since the start of conference play, but this is a home-coming game of sorts for the Pennsbury graduate. Look for the staff to tab senior 6-7 215 pound forward John Flowers and 6-8, 260 pound junior forward Kevin Jones to start in two of the three forward spots. The fifth starter will go to the player with who best fits the game plan and has probably practiced/played well lately. Senior forward Cam Thoroughman, one more of a seemingly endless supply of 6-7 forwards (Coach Huggins loves 'tweeners) has gotten the nod lately, but the staff has also tabbed (the recently departed) Dan Jennings and (6-9, 270 pound) sophomore Deniz Klicli for starts in the last six games. The spot does not appear to be nailed down yet. If Coach Huggins goes deeper than eight, expect to see Jonnie West (fifth year senior) first.

Coach Wright juggled the lineup for the Wildcats' home game with Marquette. Adjusting the starting line-up he had used in Villanova's first 21 games, the Coach decided to continute starting the three seniors, Corey Fisher, Corey Stokes and Antonio Pena, but pair Fisher and Stokes in the back court even as he left Pena at the #4. Coach Wright tabbed the fourth "regular" starter, sophmore center Mouphtaou Yarou for the #5, but decided to start sophomore Isaiah Armwood at the #3 and bring sophomore point guard Maalik Wayns off the bench early. While the change up may well have been to confound Marquette specificially with a match-up problem, having two 6-0 guards side-by-side can be problematic on defense, espeically one that relies so heavily on man defense with switching principles. The bench was short for the Warriors, limited largely to Wayns and spot appearances by freshman James Bell, and sophomores Dom Cheek & Maurice Sutton. The Marquette game marked a departure in the usual Villanova rotation, those three typically see playing times range between 10 and 20 minutes.

By the Numbers, Offense & Defense...
Expect a modest clash of pace, as Villanova looks for a possession or so more than the Division 1 average (67.5) while West Virginia typically plays for three or so possessions less than the D1 average. Pomeroy projections suggest the two teams will settle for something in between (about 65 possessions), but in five of Villanova's last six games the 'Cats have had fewer than the projected possessions. This one might yield a game barely in the 60s, which would spell trouble for Villanova, as it would suggest the 'Cats are getting few points in transition. A "Four Factors" comparison when West Virginia has the ball...

When the Mountaineers have the ball...
				FTA
	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FGA
'Eer O	49.1	19.3	41.4	41.3
Wildcat D	44.7	19.1	28.0	33.9

The Mountaineer offense is ranked #24 according to Ken Pomeroy's Scouting Report, one of the near elites in Division 1. Coach Huggins' squad rebounds their misses among the very best in D1. Coach Huggins' offensive strategy is fairly straightforward, toss the ball at the basket and then rely on those athletic forwards to get the rebound and score on putback opportunities. They get to the line well, (41.3% of their FGAs, ranked #98 in D1), which suggests those rebounding battles can get physical. Perimeter defense has been a source of handwringing for the Nova Nation, but they will most likely not have to worry Saturday, West Virginia three point shooting falls in the bottom quarter of three point shooting, though frankly their two point attempt conversions are among the top third of Division 1. They are among the elites at covering the offensive boards, thereby giving themselves second chance opportunities. This mtachup is crucial for Villanova, as the Wildcats are among the elites for defensive rebounding. In two losses of their four losses, the Wildcats were unable to control the defensive boards, allowing their opponents to gather >35% of their misses. This should be a good benchmark for the Villanova front court and staff game planning. Holding West Virginia to the D1 average would be a huge boost, but that struggle beneath the boards could well test the Wildcats' depth at the forward spots. While West Virginia is good at getting to the line, they are an average team at converting those opportunities. Villanova has become particulary good at defending the shot, their eFG% defense is ranked #26 in D1. If Villanova starts Armwood but struggles to contain West Virginia's offensive rebounding in the first half, look for the type of half-time adjustment that might call for more bodies to crash the boards. That would however, diminish fast break opportunities. With poor three point shooting, Villanova's staff may feel that having both Wayns and Fisher together in the back court may be less risky than having both in against Marquette (a much stronger three point shooting squad). The "Four Factors" look at Villanova's offense versus West Virginia's defense:

When Villanova has the ball...
				FTA
	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FGA
Wildcat O	49.9	17.7	36.1	44.1
'Eer D	44.0	20.2	35.6	34.8

The Eer's adjusted defense is 89.8, ranked #18, among the elites for Division 1. They are very strong shot defenders (excellent at defending the three and above average defending the two), but are only "above average" (ranked in the upper 1/3 of D1) at keeping their opponents off the line and merely average at forcing turnovers. The Mountaineers are not good defensive rebounders, a weakness which contrasts sharply with a Villanova offensive strength. Though the difference in rebounding rates is relatively small (about 0.5), it suggests Villanova should have a good day rebounding their misses. And that would be very good given the Mountaineers' outstanding shot defense. Another key indicator for West Virginia's defense however is fouling -- they don't. For Villanova, used to netting 25% or more of their points at the line may well have to find another source for posting points, assuming they cannot coax more fouls out of Coach Huggins' squad.

Want to Beat West Virginia? Then...
Shooting is always critical, make them miss and convert your own, but...
1. Couple their misses with poor(er) rebounding. West Virginia can survive a shooting day (eFG%) in the 40s if they rebound their misses strongly, but they cannot survive a shooting day in the 30s, irrespective of their rebounding. West Virginia is 1-2 when shooting in their eFG% is <40%. The only time they won (South Florida), their opponent shot even worse than they did. If the Moutaineers are shooting in the 40s, then limit their offensive boards to the Division 1 average (about 33%). In games where they shot in the 40s and rebounded in the 30s they went 1-1.
2. Convert your shots. Sounds easy, no? Make them miss and hit your own. Like their offense, combine shooting (eFG%) and offensive rebounding. In games where their opponents converted at 50% or higher (eFG%), WVU is 2-3. In games where opponents convert at 40% (but less than 50%) and rebound at Villanova's average or better, the 'Eers are 1-2.
3. Get to the line. In games where WVU's opponents have an FT Rate (FTA/FGA) of 36.8 or higher (Villanova's rate is 44.1), they have gone 3-5.

Finally...
...Villanova lost back-to-back games in the Wells Fargo Center as they staggered to the finish last season. The games, played two weeks apart (with a Pavilion game in between) were against Connecticut and West Virginia. Before that, the Wildcats lost to Notre Dame after they lost to Syracuse (with a trip to Pittsburgh in between). Pomeroy is calling this one for the 'Cats, 65 possessions and a four point winning margin, with a 66% degree of certainty.

2010-11 Preview -- West Virginia Mountaineers

Too Busy for the Details?
West Virginia finished the 2010 Big East season strong, running the table at Madison Square Garden and brushing their first three NCAA opponents by nine or better points. Putting down the Kentucky Wildcats, 73-66, in the East Regional the Mountaineers punched their ticket to the second Final Four in the program's history. Their loss to eventual champion Duke in the semi-final was overshadowed by the uncertainty surrounding senior Da'Sean Butler, injured during the game, who appeared prepared to play at the next level once his days in Morgantown were done. Coach Huggins will see his back court return intact and hopefully healthier in 2011 than 2010. Casey Mitchell and Deniz Kilicli should be aclimated to the West Virginia system. Can the Mountaineers make it two consecutive Final Fours? They have a good starting point.  Prognosis -- A 1st quartile finish.

3 Years At a Glance

	Returning...
	2011	2010	2009
%Min	55.9	82.9	58.8
%Pts	52.3	66.0	62.2
%FGM	52.5	81.7	60.0
%3FGM	56.8	62.3	64.8
%OReb	51.9	92.3	65.2
%DReb	48.5	87.3	60.0
%TReb	49.8	89.2	61.7

Returning points, considering the losses include four year players Da'Sean Butler and Wellington Smith, along with Devin Ebanks, is surprisingly close to returning minutes. The points can be replaced as there are several Mountaineer bballers ready to step up.

	According to Pomeroy...
	2009-10		2008-09		2007-08
	#	Rank	#	Rank	#	Rank
BE Off Eff	112.4	2	106.3	8	107.4	4
BE Def Eff	100.3	3	98.1	3	99.6	4
BE Eff Diff	12.1	1	8.2	6	7.8	4
BE Def eFG	48.2	5	47.7	3	50.2	11
BE Def TOv	20.1	5	20.9	3	21.7	3
BE Def OReb	32.9	T4	32.1	5	31.3	5
BE Def FTA/FGA	43.7	14	39.7	13	37.7	8

The defensive numbers have remained fairly "steady" over the past three seasons, though the Mountaineers are becoming (note their FGA/FGA for defense) far more physical defenders than they were under John Beilein. In the transition from John Beilein's finesse-oriented style of offense and defense, the Bob Huggins squads have not developed a "signature" defensive feature. They do not excel at shot defense, nor at rebounding (remarkable considering their offensive rebounding), nor for forcing turnovers. The uptick in allowing opponents to get to the line, taken here as an indication of more physical play, is the only noticeable difference in defensive play over the last three season. If the defense is largely nondescript (physical play excepted), the same cannot be said for the offense...

Care to guess Bob Huggins' first season?

The transition from efficient shot selection to offensive rebounding is remarkable. While the current coach may have carried over much of the Beilein offensive playbook, the shift from working the defense to free a shooter (usually on the perimeter) and snag a high-percentage shot to controlling the boards for the second-chance opportunity is striking. Note that West Virginia hovered on the boundary separating the first and second quartiles (#3 down to #5) while making this offensive transition. Can the Mountaineers improve their Big East standing? The data would suggest they cannot get much better at offensive rebounding. With turnovers and FTA/FGA fluctuating from season-to-season, eFG% (shooting efficiency) would have to improve for West Virginia to maintain their place at the table in the first quartile. In an offense where efficient shot making predominates, turnovers may play a more important role than offensive rebounding.

	For the Record...
	2009-10			2008-09			2007-08
	W	L	Pct.	W	L	Pct.	W	L	Pct.
Overall	31	7	0.816	23	12	0.657	26	11	0.703
Big East	13	5	0.722	10	8	0.556	11	7	0.611
Post Season?	NCAA Rnd #5			NCAA Rnd #1			NCAA Rnd #3

The Mountaineer's Nucleus
When Coach Bob Huggins runs his first practice, he will look on a squad composed nearly entirely of players he (and Assistant Coach Billy Hahn) recruited. Ironically, the squad is not much longer than those assembled by John Beilein, but they faster and more athletic.

On Offense
Player	Min%	Ortg	Poss%	Shot%	eFG%	OR%	PPWS	FTR%
Kevin Jones	81.2	124.6	18.5	21.5	57.6	12.0	1.18	28.5
Darryl Bryant	55.0	102.7	23.9	21.4	42.4	2.7	1.00	56.0
Joe Mazzulla	38.5	91.5	15.2	10.0	37.5	2.1	0.87	76.2
John Flowers	35.4	102.5	14.6	12.6	48.5	6.1	0.98	50.0
Casey Mitchell	18.5	102.8	24.3	33.3	41.5	5.4	0.80	15.6
Cam Thoroughman	16.8	91.2	12.4	6.0	50.0	9.0	1.05	109.1
Dalton Pepper	14.8	112.5	20.3	27.8	47.2	4.4	0.98	12.2

Look for juniors Kevin Jones and Truck Bryant to function as first and second scoring options when they are on the floor. They should be augmented by back court/wing players Casey Mitchell and Dalton Pepper, two of the most efficient rotation players last season. If they increase their time without reducing their usage (Poss%) or sacrificing efficiency (ORtg), they should be able to make up for the departed offense. West Virginia fans who look to senior John Flowers for a big step up will be disappointed. Flowers will get minutes, and the senior has provided better efficiency than (say) Joe Mazzulla, but Flowers has not provided more than limited role player-type offense in his previous three seasons, and will not grow much beyond that level this season either. An "X Factor" player going into this season is sophomore forward/center Deniz Kilicli, a Turk who sat for an NCAA-mandated 23 games last season. Should the Turk improve his rebounding (his shot efficiency, 51.2% eFG%, compared favorably with other members of the squad), he will see (a lot) more floor time in 2011.

On Defense
Player	Min%	DR%	Ast%	TO%	Stl%	Blk%
Kevin Jones	81.2	13.0	7.2	10.9	3.1	1.1
Darryl Bryant	55.0	7.7	25.2	21.6	0.1	1.8
Joe Mazzulla	38.5	11.2	26.5	28.0	0.2	2.5
John Flowers	35.4	13.5	15.5	20.2	6.0	2.4
Casey Mitchell	18.5	7.5	9.9	10.7	0.0	2.2
Cam Thoroughman	16.8	10.5	11.6	34.8	1.8	1.2
Dalton Pepper	14.8	4.7	15.1	9.4	0.5	1.1

Not a good sign when the point guard is the second-most efficient defensive rebounder. Jones is a great offensive rebounder, but has to get better on the defensive glass. And someone from Pepper, Kilicli and Flowers will have to improve greatly if the West Virginia is to stay among the conference elites in defense.

Significant Additions
The Mountaineers' entering class, on the small (in number) size, has been steadily reduced. A single player, 6-10, 235 pound Kevin Noreen out of Minneapolis, MN is available. Noah Cottrill, a 6-3, 195 scoring machine, was suspended indefinitely in late October. Red shirt freshman Kenny Ross, a 6-0 175 pound guard, may see some rotation minutes.

Explode If...
1. Pepper, Kilicli and Mitchell can efficienctly replace the departed scoring.
2. The Mountaineers can take better care of the ball. Turnovers were not a drag on the offense last season, but should Coach Huggins' squad reduce their turnover rate (17.2% in conference play last season) by another 4% (which would rank them in the top 2-3 in conference) they could get another 2-3 field goal attempts per game in the bargain.
3. Bryant improves his shot conversion efficiency to "average". The guard was terrible last season, converting just 37.7% of his 2 point attempts and 31.5% of his 3 point attempts.

Implode If...
1. Reduction in the number of players available. The exact reason does not really matter, health or discipline failings can net the same result, and the squad has suffered both, and NCAA sanctions as well, over the past three seasons. At least five different players have had at least six run-ins that resulted in loss of game time. The coach does not have a deep enough squad this season to sustain efficiency should another player or two have to sit.

Crucial Run/Bellweather Games
West Virginia will rely on the 2010 Puerto Rico Tip-Off field to provide some credibility to their out of conference (OOC) schedule. Their first round opponent will be Davidson (Southern Conference), with either Nebraska (Big 12) or Vanderbilt (SEC -- most likely) to follow. High majors bracketed in the other half of the field include North Carolina (ACC -- a possible third opponent), Western Kentucky (Sun Belt powerhouse) and Minnesota (Big Ten -- possible fourth opponent). Puerto Rico comes early (November 18 through November 21), so the trip to Miami for a December 4 game is, local rivals Robert Morris and Duquesne aside, their sternest test before the Big East schedule. WVU does have two additional OOC games after conference play begins -- a made-for-TV matchup with Purdue (1/16) and traditional in state rival Marshall (1/19). If the Mountaineers are 11-0/10-1 (a reasonable expectation) when they meet St. John's on 12/29, they will ranked in the national polls and probably in line for a very good (#3 or better) seed in the NCAAs. 8-3 (or worse) and West Virginia fans will be pining for the days of Da'Sean Butler and Devin Ebanks.

West Virginia's mirrors, Backyard Brawl rival Pittsburgh, Louisville and DePaul, are a good, representative mix of the conference. Given the Coliseum's intimidation factor, the 'Eers should be able to wring a 4-2 or even 5-1 record from that trio. Noting the Coliseum as an advantage, hosting St. John's, Notre Dame and Seton Hall should translate into Ws for Coach Huggins' squad and provide a tie-breaker edge with teams that may well challenge for position in conference standings. The Johnnies and Pirates visit fairly early in the conference season. The Mountaineers open the conference season with a five game slate before they take a two game "OOC break". Those five games include a home opener against St. John's (welcome to the Big East Steve Lavin!), followed by a three game road trip (WVU's longest road run) that takes the squad out to the midwest (Marquette and DePaul) with a chaser in DC (Georgetown) and then a home game against Providence. Sporting a 3-2 conference record before hosting Purdue would be par for the course (but a bit disappointing?). Anything less should be cause for concern, though not surprising if their OOC record was (say) 8-3 or poorer. The last half of the schedule, on paper, is tougher than the first, so keeping the losses to one or two is important. The far turn features a road trip to Philadelphia and a meeting with Villanova. That game is followed by both Backyard Brawl games and a trip to Syracuse. If WVU has 10-11 conference wins going into the home stretch, they will be in very good shape as they have a trip to Piscataway and a date with Rutgers, followed by a two game homestand that features Connecticut and Louisville. A 3-0 run to close out the conference schedule (combined with the 10-11 wins going in) would put West Virginia in line for a #3/#4 seed in the Big East Tournament.

Seton Hall - West Virginia -- Home for the Holidays

The Boys Are Back in Town...
A game in Newark, NJ, scheduled the day after Christmas for a team from West Virginia may sound like a hardship. But temper that first impulse, for 6 of West Virginia's 16 rostered players (Da'Sean Butler, Devin Ebanks, Kevin Jones, Darryl Bryant, Danny Jennings and Wellington Smith) a game at the Rock is practically a home game. They played their High School ball in and around New York City, Long Island or New Jersey. This was more like "Home for the Holidays" than "Long Strange Trip". And those 6 made the most of the chance to play in front of family and friends as they collectively shot 25-51 (7-18, 18-33) and 18-23 -- that is 83.6% of the Mountaineers' FGAs (and 81.6% of the team's 3FGAs). The six players accounted for 75 of West Virginia's 90 points (83.3%).

In the first half it did not appear that Seton Hall was getting any rebounds at all. Indeed the splits indicate the Pirates snagged <25% of their misses, but gave VWU 31.6% of their's, better than the D1 average (about 33%). The Pirates' 1st half problems derived from their inability to stop West Virginia from converting shots. Indeed, WVU's eFG% was 50.0%, based on a 50% conversion rate for 2s, and a 33% conversion rate for 3s. Very consistent. Seton Hall implemented a press to exploit WVU's lack of point guard skills on the floor (note that both Mazzulla and Bryant had dings. Though both played & logged about 62.5% of the minutes at the #1, neither was particularly effective offensively & even less so defensively). The Mountaineers had a 1st half turnover rate of 15.8, when combined with their 2nd half turnover rate (13.8), suggests the Hall's press was ineffective.

Half-time Adjustments
Coach Gonzalez appeared to have solved a few of the Hall's 1st half deficiencies, namely on the boards. But he failed to find a good strategy for the press. But the Hall's conversion efficiency (eFG%) remained flat at 43.1% for both halves. Improvements came from getting to the line and controlling their offensive boards better (up to 37.5%, from 23.1%), and getting to the line more. Converting at the line became very problematic however. The game was lost at the line in fact. While WVU had a free throw conversion rate of 72.7% (24 of 33), the Pirates could muster no better than 48% (16 of 33). Even merely matching WVU's conversion rate would have translated into a win.

Notes and Observations
1. Jeremy Hazell scored a career-high 41 points on 14-33 and 9-12 shooting. His eFG% was a disappointing 48.5% with a 1.06 PPWS, good, but not great numbers. Hazell took 34% of the Hall's possessions (a very large percentage) and over 42% of the squad's shots, when he was on the floor. Both numbers are high for anyone not named Michael Jordan, but Coach Gonzalez seemed to have made peace with the idea that Hazell would consume a lot of the Pirate's possessions and shots this season.
2. Keon Lawrence and Jeff Robinson 2 recently re-instated players, had comparatively quiet games. Lawrence scored no points in 7 minutes of action, while Robinson scored 5 points in 19 minutes.
3. Coach Huggins played his 4 forward (plus a guard) starting lineup for 79.1% of the available minutes (in contrast with Coach Gonzalez's 65.9% usage). The high percentage suggests the game was close (it was), but also lacking point guard level ball handling skills was not a point of vulnerability.
4. "No one in the Big East can score faster than Jeremy Hazell. Everyone knows that..." -- Coach Huggins.

Big East Freshmen: Ten Six to Watch

Disclaimers, Exclusions & Disclosures...
Before I get to this year's potential break out players, I feel I ought to follow up on the list I put together going into last season. I identified this group of ten as players who, though overlooked for the Big East All Rookie Team (2007), could have a big impact on their teams in the 2007-08 season. Two of those players, Lazar Hayward and Earl Clark did indeed receive more recognition than their freshmen years. Hayward, a 6-6, 225lbs sophomore from Marquette was named to the Second Team All Big East, while speculation on whether he would declare for the NBA draft, followed Clark all season. Dwain Williams (PC), Larry Wright (St. John's) and Vernon Macklin (Georgetown) all saw their minutes grow as did their roles in their respective offenses. Each "progressed" from a role player-type player to a regular-type player. Solomon Bozeman (USF), Larry Wright and Lazar Hayward improved their shooting efficiency, while most maintained or saw their eFG%s decline slightly. Only Sololmon Bozeman saw a significant cut in minutes, though Jerry Smith (Louisville), David Cubillian (Marquette) and Larry Davis (Seton Hall) saw their roles (mostly role player-level involvement in their offenses) tread water or decline slightly. Qa'rraan Calhoun (St. John's) left school over the summer of 2007 while five others Solomon Bozeman (South Florida), Larry Davis (Seton Hall), Vernon Macklin (Georgetown), Dwain Williams (Providence) and Larry Wright (St. John's) transferred during the off season.

Player	Coll	%Min	ORtg	%Poss	%Shot	eFG%	PPWS	FTRate
Gilbert Brown	Pitt	54.7	115.8	15.4	15.4	51.9	1.12	37.0
Corey Stokes	Nova	45.9	101.8	17.6	21.9	46.5	1.01	20.8
Chris Wright	GTown	20.2	100.1	22.1	19.9	56.4	1.12	32.9
D.J. Kennedy	John's	66.0	98.4	18.3	16.5	48.9	1.07	48.0
Rashad Bishop	Nati	58.0	97.3	15.1	14.7	45.7	0.99	32.2
Antonio Pena	Nova	48.4	95.4	21.5	18.8	47.5	1.05	52.5

Note that all possession-based stats come from the Scouting Report Pages for each team, located on Ken Pomeroy's website. Clicking on a player's team will link you to the corresponding Scouting Report.

Ten Six to Watch
Going over the numbers for this off season's rising sophomores, made me appreciate the depth of the class from last summer. The class this time around, below the All Big East Rookie Team and these six, seems thinner than last summer.
When Pittsburgh's Mike Cook went down with a season-ending ACL tear freshman Gilbert Brown joined a rotation with seniors Keith Benjamin and Ron Ramon to fill out the Panther attack on the wing. If Brown did not live up to the preseason press offered by Mike DeCourcy, he did post some pretty good numbers. Ramon and Benjamin are gone; even if Mike Cook's appeal for a 6^th year of eligibility is upheld, Brown will see even more minutes than last season.
The Villanova team will be much the same next season as it was last season. Only the now-transferred Malcolm Grant's minutes are available to divvy up. The perfect opportunity for a do-over that much heralded (when he entered last fall) swingman Corey Stokes ought to seize to his advantage. Stokes started strong in the Wildcat's exhibition games, but lost momentum as the regular season got under way. He came on strong at the end, gaining the starting job in Villanova's last four games. I make no apologies for my Villanova bias, but including the second Wildcat (forward Antonio Pena) in a rather small list is less favoritism and more a candidate who fits the profile as a capable player with an opportunity to contribute. When Casiem Drummond went to the bench with a foot fracture Pena stepped in on (very) short notice to pick up Drum's minutes. He did well, surging in the first few games, but "settling" as the Big East season kicked in and wore on. Pena seemed to tire at the end (freshman fatigue?), but maintained a presence in the offense (21.5% Poss%, 18.8% Shot%) and was a force on the boards. By way of comparison, rising senior Dante Cunningham posted his first double-double as a Wildcat nine games into his junior season (versus Hartford). Pena register his first double-double ten games later (2^nd Pittsburgh game). For Pena, becoming more efficient offensively involves not simply hitting a higher percentage of shots, it also means (more importantly?) cutting down on turnovers.
I am reluctant to name any St. John's player to this list...writing anything positive seems to condemn the player to transfer at the the next available opportunity. DJ Kennedy did have a very good freshman campaign, and though he was not named to the All BE Rookie Team should, despite new challenges from redshirt sophomore Rob Thomas, be even more effective next season. St. John's has developed a reputation for tough defense under head coach Norm Robert, and Kennedy's Stl% (2.8) is pretty good for a #2/#3, no doubt a stat that caught Coach Robert's attention. Kennedy rebounds well (compare his numbers to Pena's -- below), which ought to be a plus when deciding whether to give him more time next season.
Rashad Bishop worked himself into the starting lineup by the fourth game of last season, and despite an up and down season, managed to work himself back into the starting line up by the end of the season. Bishop averaged 5.4 points and 3.4 rebounds in about 23 minutes of play. Bishop's main competition for the #3 will continue to be fellow wings (and fellow sophomores...) Darnell Wilks and Alvin Mitchell, either of whom may well be the breakout (though Mitchell seems more likely than Wilks...) player next season.
Normally I would look for more minutes than Georgetown's Chris Wright has played before including an individual on the "...To Watch" List. Wright, a well regarded point guard going into last season, had a "donut" season (play in the beginning and end, injury in the middle). Despite some good scoring numbers Wright's ORtg is just over 100, most likely due to his turnovers. Jon Wallace has graduated and Jeremiah Rivers transferred. With no entering point guards this season, Wright will most likely team with Jesse Sapp; their only relief will come from fellow sophomore Omar Wattad, redshirt freshman Nikita Mescheriakov and incoming 2 time All-Met (Washington DC) guard Jason Clark.

Player	Coll	OR%	DR%	TORate	%Block	%Stls
Gilbert Brown	Pitt	5.4	10.4	15.8	1.3	1.8
Corey Stokes	Nova	3.1	12.4	15.7	0.6	1.3
Chris Wright	GTown	2.5	13.2	26.1	0.4	3.2
D.J. Kennedy	John's	8.1	17.8	23.0	1.4	2.8
Rashad Bishop	Nati	5.3	11.6	21.1	1.8	1.7
Antonio Pena	Nova	8.5	17.3	24.8	2.1	1.6

And Then There is...
John Flowers of West Virginia logged about 30% of the minutes at the #3 and posted an ORtg of 93.3 as a 2^nd/3^rd option on offense. Flowers played behind Da’Sean Butler. With Devin Ebanks and Kevin Jones coming in next season Flowers (and Butler...) will have some very competitive practices.
Preston Knowles of Louisville logged some impressive numbers playing about 20% of the minutes on the wing. Knowles played behind Jerry Smith (among others) while logging an eFG% of 57.6, yeildng an ORtg of 115.3. Like Smith, Knowles plugs into the offense as a sniper -- shooting enough from the outside to keep defenses honest, but not taking touches (Poss% 13.6) and scoring opportunities (Shot% 16.6) from the team's offensive headliners. Smith and Knowles will no doubt split time with transfer Reggie Delk and incoming Jared Swopshire. Coach Pitino tends to spread the playing time around, allowing each player a shot to stake his claim to the position.
Mike Davis was the first big off the bench to relieve the often injured John Garcia, a junior next year. Garcia was healthy all last season, the first full season he has been able to log at the Hall. Davis managed to post some very good numbers on the boards, especially on the offensive boards (OR% 10.4). Bob Gonzalez teams are back court-oriented, but as the 4/4 option he posted a very decent 108.7 ORtg on an eFG% of 47.1. Augustine Okosun transferred in the off season. That leaves incoming Melvyn Oliver (340lbs) from Mississippi Elite Christian as Davis' competition for Garcia's backup. If Garcia hits another run of bad health, Davis will most likely get the first crack at the starting line up.