Coaching Carousal: Part 2011-04: Effects, Hits, Misses & Numbers

Effects -- Butterfly, Ripple or Domino?
When Villanova's Assistant Coach Chris Walker accepted a similar position on Billy Gillispie's Texas Tech staff back in April (announced formally only last week) Villanova Coach Jay Wright seized the opportunity to reorganize his staff. Though the process took just under two months and affected three coaches and two positions, Coach Wright's first step, completed in just over two weeks brought Navy Head Coach Billy Lange back to the Mainline as an Associate Head Coach. Lange, in his second stint on Coach Wright's staff, has taken an increasingly well-traveled road of head coach in a non-BCS program to assistant in a BCS program, the second to do so this off season alone. Lange's exit triggered a three job shift among D1 head coaching positions Villanova (Assoc. HC) <-- (Lange) Navy (HC) <-- (DeChellis) Penn State (HC) <-- (Chambers)Boston University (HC) <-- ?. The shift was unusual for the timing, coming so late in the cycle, but even more so for the number of head coaching positions opened, initiated by a head coach-to-assistant shift. Last season the Patriot League was ranked 24th of 32 D1 conferences by by Ken Pomeroy, the level where one would expect a coach to be named from a pool of assistant/associate coaches, rather than BCS-level head coaches. The circumstances of DeChellis' situation in Happy Valley played a large role in his decision to take a pay cut and change jobs. Clearly this was not the Butterfly Effect at work. Juwan Staten was slated to transfer from Dayton to Penn State prior to DeChellis' move, but instead signed with West Virginia, is an example of the Butterfly Effect (especially if he hits a shot that eliminates Villanova from the 2013 BET for example). The quick movement diagram (above) illustrates the moves as a chain reaction that typifies the Domino Effect, but given the number of coaches associated with the Philadelphia coaching fraternity, I would also suggest there was a Ripple Effect involved. Would Pat Chambers considered a BCS-level job this late in the cycle had it been located in Washington state? Would Penn State have looked at Chambers if Happy Valley were located in upper Minnesota? The influence exerted by the six D1 coaches coaches at Philadelphia schools (Drexel, La Salle, Penn, Saint Joseph's, Temple and Villanova) extends beyond the Delaware Valley and the state of Pennsylvania (to Madison, Wisconsin actually).

Hits & Misses?
The ACC saw an unusually high (four) number of vacancies this off season, 50% of the attrition can be attributed to terminations at Georgia Tech (Paul Hewitt) and North Carolina State (Sidney Lowe). Both coaches were on the hot seat going into the 2011 season. Interestingly, feedback about Paul Hewitt's and Sidney Lowe's replacements (Brian Gregory and Mark Gottfried repsectively) is (charitably at best) mixed. By general knowledge, Georgia Tech, with a large buyout on Hewitt's contract and huge capital expenses (facilities related) looming, may have been reluctant to go after a namebrand coach. North Carolina State AD Debbie Yow apparently believed a whispering campaign limited her pool of available replacements after she fired five year veteran Sidney Lowe, making Mark Gottfried, himself fired (in mid-season no less) from his last job (Alabama), the most attractive of the available candidates. She seemed to conveniently forget that the Wolfpack faithful practically ran off Lowe's predessessor Herb Sendak, and after a very public search marked by an embarrassing series of courtships and rejections, then AD Lee Fowler settled on Sidney Lowe, an NCSU graduate who was unable to translate consistently good recruiting into an NCAA bid in any of his five seasons at State. Sendak, with less attractive recruits, managed an NCAA bid in each of his last five seasons in Raleigh. Do the numbers support or contradict media perceptions that Gregory and Gottfried were basically misses? I dusted off Dan Hanner's Average Efficiency Margin method to compare the ex-coach and his successor...

	Average Adj.
Coach/Team/Yr	Offense	Defense	Diff.
P. Hewitt, Ga Tech/2004-2011	109.1	91.4	+17.7
B. Gregory, Dayton/2004-2011	104.7	94.7	+10.0

Those seeking an explanation for Tech's selection of Gregory -- beyond expense -- cannot look to an efficiency margin better than Hewitt's. Though Dayton's ex-coach boasts a positive double digit margin through his last seven seasons, it is well off (see above) Paul Hewitt's efficiency margin (in fact Hewitt's efficiency margin was better -- by 8.4 points per 100 possessions -- than Jim Larranaga, the GMU Coach whose move to Miami created the opening at George Mason). Fans at both Georgia Tech and Dayton shared a similar view of their respective former coaches -- good recruiters who seemed to do less with more. Hopefully each will find greater acceptance (and success) at their next stop.

Though Coach Gottfried had a ten year run in Tuscaloosa, Ken Pomeroy provides data for only six of those years (2003-08). I decided to compare the last five years of Lowe's and Gottfried's tenure at their respective schools. Though Lowe never made the NCAA tournament, Gottfried did in three of his last five years at Alabama (2003 -- Elite Eight, 2004 -- Round of 32, 2005 -- first round)...

	Average Adj.
Coach/Team/Yr	Offense	Defense	Diff.
S. Lowe, NCSU/2007-11	109.7	98.1	+11.7
M. Gottfried, Alabama/2004-08	115.5	96.0	+19.5

Gottfried might be the D1 coaching equivalent of Wally Pipp. The Crimson Tide of 2007 and 2008 had slumped from the high-water mark of 2003, the circumstances of Gottfried's "resignation" and the enthrusiasm surrounding Anthony Grant's early success have certainly combined to allow the Crimson Tide faithful to quickly forget about Gottfried's accomplishments. Being the third of three schools in the Research Triangle will be a challenge, but the circumstances at North Carolina State (public institution, football-centric) are similar to those at Alabama. Gottfried should do well there.

Radford Selects Jones, Boston University is on the Clock...
Despite speculation that focused on several former head coaches, the search to replace Brad Greenburg at Radford University settled quickly on the usual suspects -- assistant coaches from higher-level conferences within the region. 27 days into the search, Athletic Director Robert Lineburg introduced Mike Jones, an assistant coach at Virginia Commonwealth University out of the Colonial Athletic Association (CAA) as Radford's sixth Division 1 men's basketball coach.

Despite assertions that Boston University's search for Chamber's replacement would only take days, the process is now two weeks old with interim head coach Brian Daly (Assistant Coach under Chambers), announced June 3, holding down the fort. The post-Chambers press announcement candidate pool was an eclectic mix of ex-head coaches (Al Skinner), high-ranking assistant/associate head coaches (Mike Jarvis II & Orlando Vandross -- both of whom deny being contacted for interviews -- along with media favorite Richard Pitino, son of Louisville head coach and former Terrier head coach, Rick Pitino) and local sports names (Walter McCarty, former Celtic & Louisville assistant coach & former BU player Scott Spinelli) among others. When BU Athletic Director Mike Lynch fired 15 year veteran Dennis Wolff in March of 2009 he hired a search firm and took just under a month (26 days) to select and deliver Pat Chambers. Lynch did not initiate the process this time, did not hire a search firm and named Daly very quickly when Chambers left. Given how late in the cycle the opening was created, I would not be surprised if Daly leads the Terriers through the next season with the interim label attached to his title. Nor would I be surprised if Lynch tabs a head coach in the next week or so. I would be surprised, given Boston University's competitive standing in the American East Conference, if Lynch names a replacement after the start of the July recruiting period.

By the Numbers...
A single vacancy has been created since the last Coaching Carousal post, a bit unusual for me to post so quickly. The Villanova connection was too tempting to pass on however. The ebb and flow to this point...

		Vacancies
Period	Date	No.	Pct.
Regular Season*	02/26/11	2	3.6%
Conf. Tourn.**	03/14/11	18	32.7%
NCAA Tourn.	04/07/11	23	41.8%
Spring Sign	05/18/11	9	16.4%
Post Spr. Sign	Today...	3	5.5%
n = 55

* Regular season ending was arbitrary; I used the start of the earliest conference tournaments to mark the transition from regular season to post season play.
** Selection Sunday, March 14 this year, marks the end of conference tournaments & the beginning of post season program evaluations.

Turnover peaked during the NCAA tournament, typical given that most vacancies are initiated by the employer and conference tournaments and the NCAAs (and NIT, CBI, CIT, etc) mark the end of the season for viturally all of the Division 1 programs. 55 vacancies mark 2011 as the third busiest since 2002. Projecting a few more openings is not unreasonable, though the vacancy will be created by exigent circumstances (coaches behaving badly for example), with the AD either conducting a very quick (days, not weeks) search or tabbing an interim. 57? 58? Stay tuned.

Coaching Carousal Part 2011-03: Post Spring Signing

Deadlines, Real & Imagined...
The close of the Spring Signing Period may seem arbitrary as a watershed for the coaching job market, but there is an internal rhythem to program management (and department administration) that suggests there are several points on the annual timeline when creating (and filling) coaching vacancies would ebb and flow. Though the past few seasons may hint at a change, Athletic Directors have been loathe to fire coaches during the season. At one time this was a step taken only when there were serious violations to the coaching contract (termination for cause for example) or illness. If the past few seasons have seen a coach fired over wins and losses, an AD who was slow to pull the trigger was more likely the root than a specific development. Many schools want a coach in place by the first day of the Spring Signing Period (April 15 this year) to give the new coach the best opportunity to hold onto athletes already committed to the program, and to gather LOIs from those high schoolers and JUCOs still available. After the close of the signing period (May 18 this year), the focus most likely changes to summer school, off season conditioning routines, summer league play and (for the staff) the next "open period" in the recruiting cycle. Job searches and interviews become a distraction and the individuals/programs making changes this late tend to find themselves at a disadvantage relative to others in their conference and Division 1. Need for change has to overcome the inertia of "no change" to motivate an AD to fire a coach, or for a coach to leave his (or her) job...

Annapolis Sneezes and Happy Valley Catches Cold
Navy's Coach Billy Lange became the latest in a growing list of non-BCS head coaches who give up a first chair for an assistant position at a BCS conference program. Buzz Williams left New Orleans for Marquette in 2007 and late last April Dane Fife left Dane Fife left IPFW to be Tom Izzo's assistant at Michigan. For Lange, who guided the Navy program for seven seasons, logging a 93-113 record at Annapolis, the money and return to the familiar surroundings of the Main Line were too tempting. Coming off of two consecutive seasons in which his Villanova squad sputtered in the last month of the season, Coach Wright reached out to a no nonsense former assistant coach, offering Lange the Associate Head Coach job. Meanwhile, in Happy Valley, Penn State Coach Ed DeChellis, a PSU graduate and five year head coach, was coming off of his second best year as the Nittany Lions mentor. The 'Nits logged a 9-9 record in Big Ten conference play and earned their first NCAA bid in 10 years. When overtures to raise an assistant coach's pay and extend his own contract beyond 2014 were rebuffed, DeChellis starting looking around, and, if the article cited at The Blackburn Review are to be believed, he was in the mix for the Dayton job during the NCAA Tournament. Navy however, could not match his Penn State salary, so why did DeChellis make the move (especially this late in the cycle)? Most likely job security -- Navy offered a five year guarranteed contract, which would take him out to 2016 -- and possibly a better working environment. The Patriot-News' David Jones asserted that PSU, a football-first school vastly under appreciated DeChellis and, with a small program budget, placed the program at a competitive disadvantage to other Big Ten schools. Should Penn State hire an active Division 1 coach (according to a progress report the active coaches on PSU's To-Do List include Duquesne's Ron Everhart (interviewed), Boston University's Pat Chambers (another Villanova connection in this sequence) and UW-Milwaukee's Rob Jeter (a minor error in the blog post -- Derek plays baseball for the NY Yankees...I don't think he coaches men's basketball for walking around money...) along with a few unemployed coaches (ex-Utah coach Jim Boylen, Larry Brown, etc) and an assistant. If Athletic Director Tim Curley chooses an active Division 1 coach, the chain reaction started by Navy (Navy [Lange] <-- Penn State [DeChellis] <-- ?) may equal or better the chain reaction triggered by Gary Williams' retirement at Maryland (Maryland [Williams] <-- Texas A&M [Turgeon] <-- Murray State [Kennedy])!

More Typical for This Point in the Cycle...
Though the "normal remedy" is dismissal for cause, Radford's Brad Greenburg was suspended for the last four games of the season on February 14, as the school monitored an ongoing NCAA investigation into impermissible travel for an ineligible player (who had been suspended by the NCAA earlier for playing on a semi-pro team in France). Radford was struggling through the worst season in program history, 5-24. Though Greenburg had two winning seasons, a Big South championship and NCAA bid in his four seasons at Roanoke, Virginia school, his overall record was a disappointing 55-68, and the program's accumulated baggage, several secondary NCAA violations similar to the 2011 allegations, arrests and a steady flow of outbound transfers appear to have been strikes against him. Though Greenburg continued to circulate a newsletter to the Highlander boosters, by May 16 rumors and leaks pointed to an imminent regime change. Did the NCAA investigation turn up another smoking gun, or had Athletic Director Robert Lineburg decided there was too much baggage to continue with Greenburg? A buyout or other monitary inducement most likely persuaded Greenburg to resign. Lineburg promised a national search, to commence immediately, but only one report speculated on a candidate pool, which largely consisted of regional names (ex-GWU coach Karl Hobbs, ex-UNC Wilmington coach Benny Moss, and several assistant coaches).


By the Numbers...
In the last Coaching Carousal post I suggested this cycle would yield between 48 and 53 vacancies. So far there are 54 (caveat emptor!), which exceeds the number of vacancies in 2010 (53) a supposed "catch up" year after the unusually low 2009 cycle (32)...so much for those who asserted this would be a down year in the cycle. The post Spring Signing Period turnover is a bit unusual. Looking at the years 2007 through 2010, it seems the even numbered years (2008 & 2010) have relatively small turnover rates (2%-4% of the vacancies in the cycle), while the odd numbered years (2007 & 2009) have relatively high turnover rates (15%-19% of the vacancies in the cycle). With two vacancies since May 18, 2011's post signing period vacancy rate is just under 4% -- a 15% vacancy rate would translate into a total of 61 vacancies for the cycle, or another seven turnovers. That seems high to me, but I would not be surprised if another two or three vacancies, taken at the initiative of the Athletic Director (coaches behaving badly) or the coach. There are several as yet unresolved situations (UConn -- Coach Calhoun may retire; Penn State's job search may open another Division 1 vacancy, etc) among the coaches. Projecting a few more openings is not unreasonable. 56? 58? Stay tuned.

Guest Contributor Ray Floriani: Navy at Army

by Ray Floriani

WEST POINT, NY- Sparked by an early 15-0 and a charged atmosphere in ‘comfy’ Christl Arena, Army posted a resounding 69-50 victory over Navy on Saturday. The efficiency and four factors in a 71 possession (Navy 69 Army 72) game:

			FTM
	ORtg	eFG%	FGA	OR%	TO%
Navy	73	41	13	28	30
Army	96	54	28	24	24

The defense, specifically Army's defense, stands out in this game. Not just the efficiency mark reflects the magnitude of the Cadet defensive effort. The effective field goal percentage and turnover rate are other categories that jump off the charts. Navy’s leading scorer senior guard Chris Harris (21.5 PPG) scored 30 in the narrow win over the Cadets in Annapolis a few weeks back. On this afternoon Harris was not a factor scoring 4 points on 2 of 17 shooting (0 for 7 from the floor from three). As a team Navy shot a horrendous (no other adjective fits) 1 of 19 beyond the arc. That’s 5%. And that is for a Navy team that entered the game relying on three pointers for 35% of their scoring in Patriot League contests.

Army had a strong showing from the field largely on 58% shooting (23 of 40) on two pointers. Chris Walker, a 6-9 senior, was extremely effective in the paint with 14 points on 7 of 9 shooting. The Cadet TO rate, a little high but their offensive efficiency and defensive effort atoned for their turnover ‘sins’.

Navy had two double figure scorers guards O.J. Avworo and Jordan Sugars. Army also had two, Walker and game leader Cleveland Richard with 15 points.

Navy is 13-14 (7-5 in the Patriot) Army is 14-12 (4-8).

In the first game Navy edged the Army women 54-48. The game was a more deliberate 61 possession meeting:

			FTM
	ORtg	eFG%	FGA	OR%	TO%
Navy	90	42	19	35	23
Army	79	38	5	26	15

The Army women had an outstanding turnover rate but that was the only positive on the offensive end. They shot 15 of 40 (38%) from two point range and 5 of 20 beyond the arc. Junior forward Erin Anthony was excellent with a game leading 22 points on 10 of 20 from the field. Consistent help though was not available.

Navy led 30-18 at the half before Army got back and made it a one possession game in the stretch. Midshipmen also struggled from the floor shooting 13 of 33 (39%) from two and 6 of 19 (32%) from three. They did get to the line more than the Cadets, and converted, going 10 of 13. Junior point guard Angela Myers was the difference maker leading Navy with 16 points while adding 10 rebounds and four assists. In the stretch, Myers made a succession of big plays.

Navy is 15-12 (7-5 in Patriot) while Army fell to 10-16 (4-8).

“The Army defense has been a trademark and it’s tough again. They guard the ball physically and rotate very well.” - Navy coach Billy Lange

“Navy has a lot of firepower but we were able to get a lot of contributions today from the whole team on defense . Not just one guy.” - Army coach Zach Spiker

Players & spectators stand as
each school's alma mater is played

Comment from greyCat -- Billy Lange should be a familiar name to Villanovans. Billy was an assistant coach at Villanova under Jay Wright from 2001 to 2004, before he left to head the Navy men's program. Army Coach Zach Spiker was an assistant coach under Steve Donahue back in September when he was hired to coach the Cadets literally weeks before Fall Practice commenced. Given the circumstances of his hire, Army alums and fans have to be very encouraged by the team's standings.

Navy Post Game: Fall Finals?

The Nova Blogosphere may be a bit slow to register reactions to Villanova's 10 point win over Navy at the Pavilion, but Mark over at IBBW has posted a brief post game analysis. Mike Sheridan logged his Nova Notebook Post Game over at the Official Website, where they have , of course, also posted box score. Good reads all 'round.

The breakdown by halves...

Opponent	Navy
	1st	2nd	Game
Pace	32.7	37.5	70.2
	Offense				Defense
	1st	2nd	Game		1st	2nd	Game
Rating	113.2	109.3	111.1		85.7	106.7	96.9
eFG%	51.5	37.9	44.7		51.9	48.1	50.0
TORate	9.2	16.0	12.8		33.7	18.7	25.6
OR%	29.4	52.2	42.5		35.3	25.0	29.7
FTA/FGA	15.2	66.7	40.9		0.0	66.7	33.3
FTM/FGA	9.1	48.5	28.8		0.0	51.9	25.9
ARate	60.0	58.3	59.3		80.0	50.0	65.0
Blk%	3.0	0.0	1.5		14.8	3.7	9.3
Stl%	9.0	5.3	7.1		15.6	10.7	12.9
PPWS	1.05	0.94	0.99		1.04	1.13	1.09

The first half was classic Villanova defense -- forced turnovers (33.7%), middling rebounding (35.3%), thefts (15.6%), blocks (14.8%) and little fouling (0.0%). And just a bit late shot defense (51.9%). The culprit is 3, like the classic Villanova defense, point shot defense -- 51.9%. To their credit, the 'Cats shut the inside down tight (or the eFG% for the first would have been far, far worse...and the half-time lead a good deal smaller, if there had been one at all). If the 'Cats allowed the Middies to hit 8 of 14 from beyond the arc, they stifled them to the tune of 2-13 inside the arc. The second half numbers were similar, though not as depressing. Navy, well stocked with upperclassmen guards, with a motion offense which tries to free up outside shooters, was a good test of Villanova's newly discovered shot defense. If this was a fall semester final, the Wildcat defense performed well below expectations. The problems defending the shot were exposed a bit in the second half numbers as the Midshipmen took better care of the ball (and got after their misses on the offensive glass). Despite the fact that their field goal efficiency dropped (after all, they only hit 6 of 14 beyond the arc...), fewer turnovers and more trips to the free throw line translated into more points per possession. The Wildcats still had the more efficient offense in the second half, but (as the point difference suggested...) the Middies narrowed that gap rather significantly.

As noted in the Navy preview, both teams held their opponents to virtually identical 44.4% eFG%, while scoring more efficiently. Navy's defense did hold Villanova to about 44% (44.7 actually), but Nova's shot defense held the Middies to 50.0% for the game. Not good.

Notes
1. Dante Cunningham scored his 5^th double-double of the season. This is Dante's 9^th career double-double. Dante has logged over 900 points over the course of his career.
2. Scottie, Dante and Corey Stokes again posed the triple threat on offense, as each accounted for nearly 30% of the team's possessions and shots when they were on the court. Scottie and Dante were efficient against Navy, but Stokes struggled a bit.
3. Antonio Pena may have struggled on offense, but the sophomore forward was a monster in the paint. Antonio pulled down over 16% of the offensive boards when he was in the game, but even more impressive, he pulled down over 33% of the defensive boards when he was in the game. That is over 1 in 3 defensive boards...remember he was competing with nine other players for those loose balls.

Ref Notes
This is the first game for Clarence Armstrong, though both John Cahill and Wally Rutecki have another game from this season under their (collective) belts. The crew did blow more whistles than the 'Cats have heard lately (past 3 games?), but the game was not "exceptional" for the amount of fouls called. Neither coach (if the Navy announcing crew read expressions and coach-referee exchanges accurately...) was particularly happy with Wally Rutecki, but is anyone...really?

Preview -- Navy

Villanova hosts former assistant (now the Naval Academy's Head basketball Coach) Billy Lange and his Midshipmen at the Pavilion Monday evening. This will be the second meeting in three seasons after a hiatus of nearly 58 years. The Wildcats won that last meeting by 9 points, 70-61, but Navy leads the series 3-5. Maybe the 'Cats can bring the series a bit closer to .500 this season...

What Others Say...
...Blue Ribbon gives the backcourt a A, the frontcourt a C+ and the bench/depth a B+. The BRY predicts the Middies will finish 3rd in the Patriot League this season. Marty Leon over at the Rush the Court Blog predicted a 2nd place finish for Navy with the note that the Middies return nine of their top 10 scorers. Leon also identified senior guard Kaleo Kina as one of the Patriot Leagues "best returnees"...

So Far...
Navy (Patriot League, 8-3, RPI #209) comes to the Mainline off a lose Saturday to Canisius (MAAC, 4-7, RPI #150). The Middies best wins this season include a 12 point win over St. Francis(NY) (NEC, 3-6, RPI #144) and a 3 point win over Mount St. Mary's (NEC, 3-7, RPI #139). The Midshipmen's two "best losses" were a gutty 9 point loss to the Va Tech Hokies (ACC, 7-4, RPI #88) and the aforementioned 5 point loss to the Golden Griffens of Canisius. Villanova and Navy both played Towson and Penn so far this year:

	Nova		Navy
Opponent	W/L	Diff.	W/L	Diff.
Towson	W	+17	L	-18
Penn	W	+23	W	+11

Frontcourt vs frontcourt...
...Coach Lange used a traditional starting lineup in the beginning of the season, putting sophomore Mark Veazey (6-10, 230lbs) in the middle and flanking him with senior forward Adam Teague (6-8, 225lbs). The past few games he has started 4 guards and brought Teague in for about 30 minutes. Sophomore Jeremy Wilson (6-10, 235lbs), junior T.J. Topercer (6-8, 227lbs) and senior Brian Richards (6-9, 235lbs) see limited minutes, not in every game. Those three contribute mostly through rebounding.

Villanova will start Dante Cunningham and Antonio Pena, as they have in their previous eleven games. Dwayne Anderson has started the last two games, now that his rehabilitation is completed. Frank Tchuisi may also see minutes if the game is in hand, or someone is in foul trouble.

Backcourt vs backcourt...
...Navy has started four guards in their previous three games. The quartet, senior Kaleo Kina (6-4, 210lbs), junior Chris Harris (6-2, 185lbs) and sophomores Romeo Garcia (6-4, 207lbs) and O.J. Avworo (6-0, 195lbs), have, over the past four games, collectively taken over 70% of the minutes available (Kina alone accounts for 90% of the minutes at a single guard position). If they are on the floor together, assume that at least 4 of every 5 shots taken will come from one of those four (most often from Kina). Collectively they account for 2/3 of all shots taken by the team over the past 4 games. Coach Lange has a mid-major version of Nova's four guard offense from 2006, with Kaleo Kina as their Randy Foye. Kina has become the focus of the offense too, taking over 1 in 3 of the Middies' FGAs when he is on the floor. The most prolific outside shoot however is the junior guard Chris Harris, with forward Adam Teague and Kina a distant 2nd and 3rd. Navy will take nearly 4 in 10 FGAs from beyond the arc, so Harris and Kina (and Teague) will shoot early and often.

Villanova has started Scottie Reynolds and Corey Stokes in every game this season. Expect that to continue. For the past two games senior Dwayne Anderson has started over sophomore Corey Fisher. Fisher and junior Reggie Redding will rotate in within the first 5 - 8 minutes of the first half. Both will take doule digit minutes, with Fisher playing some #1 and #2, while Redding covers everything from #1 to #4 (but mostly #2 & #3). Scottie remains the 1st option on offense, with Corey Stokes adding a nice complement from the outside. Both Coreys, Stokes and Fisher had very efficient games against La Salle. Hopefully this game will continue the trend.

Navy By the Numbers...
The Middies' RPI has fluctuated in a range of low 200s to low 300s over the past 5 years. Navy's offense fits the perimeter-oriented (POT) style outlined by John Gasaway in his previous life as The Big Ten Wonk. The Midshipmen prefer a higher possession style game, averaging about 71.5 possessions, adjusted, via Ken Pomeroy's Navy Scout Page which ranks them #51 out of approx. 343 (the current average D1 pace is 67.8). Navy's offense has struggled so far, netting about 0.966 points per possession (96.6 ORtg), good for a #225 ranking. Their defense, giving up (adjusted) about 0.994 (99.4 DRtg -- (ranked #158) is closer to (and a bit better than...) the D1 average of 99.7. Looking below the surface numbers, at Oliver's Four Factor, we find...

When Navy has the ball...
				FTA
	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FGA
Middie O	47.9	20.0	31.1	29.1
Wildcat D	44.4	23.1	28.9	35.5

At 47.9 the Midshipmen are below the D1 average on field goal efficiency, yet their 3FGM conversion rate, at 32.0%, is the reason their ranking is so low (#195). The balance of Navy's offensive factors (TO%, OR% and FTA/FGA) all fit Gasaway's POT profile. Given the Wildcat's 3 point shot defense (currently at 31.2%, but historically much more porous...) should receive a good test Monday evening. The rebounding matchup should be very interesting. Nova is outstanding at defending the boards, while Navy has struggled (or does not consider them an offensive priority...). Look for a big defensive rebounding night, the type of conditions (other factors considered) that could spell another double-double night for Dante Cunningham. Again owing to Navy's POT profile, a Villanova defensive weakness, putting opposing players on the charity stripe, may not be a factor in this game. Looking at the other half of the matchups...

When Villanova has the ball...
				FTA
	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FGA
Wildcat O	52.4	18.1	37.4	32.1
Middie D	44.4	19.8	32.3	44.2

Defensive eFG% is the same for both teams -- I will be interested to see how each team actually shoots and defends. The 'Cats have been effective from the floor, the rise in eFG% in part the result of integrating the front court (ie Dante Cunningham) into the offense. Navy is an average defensive rebounding team, while Nova has been pretty good on the offensive boards over the course of the season, though they have fallen off the in the past 3 games. Navy's tendency to foul (FTA/FGA -- the Middies are ranked #296) is a weakness that may well be tracable to their smaller (less athletic?) line up. Navy's guard quartet tends to collect a lot of whistles, with Garcia and Harris the two most likely to sit via DQs. Villanova's larger front court and more athletic wings ought to be able to exploit their counterparts. The 'Cats routinely look for 20% or more of their points from the line.


Finally...
...While the Navy staff has favored a four guard starting line up lately, I wonder if they will go with Teague at the #4 to counter Villanova's size, and sit one of Harris, Garcia (most likely?) or Avworo for the first few minutes. Should they go with the smaller line up will Villanova counter by pairing Clark, Anderson and/or Redding with Cunningham/Pena (rather than playing Te and Tone in tandem).

Pomeroy projects the teams to get about 69 possessions apiece (above the average for D1), with Nova notching a 22 point decision. That margin of victory seems high, especially given Coach Lange's history on the Villanova staff, that the players and staff continue to mull and develop their roles within the offensive and defensive framework and the staff's tendency to tinker and adjust playing time.