Villanova hosts former assistant (now the Naval Academy's Head basketball Coach) Billy Lange and his Midshipmen at the Pavilion Monday evening. This will be the second meeting in three seasons after a hiatus of nearly 58 years. The Wildcats won that last meeting by 9 points, 70-61, but Navy leads the series 3-5. Maybe the 'Cats can bring the series a bit closer to .500 this season...
What Others Say...
...Blue Ribbon gives the backcourt a A, the frontcourt a C+ and the bench/depth a B+. The BRY predicts the Middies will finish 3rd in the Patriot League this season. Marty Leon over at the Rush the Court Blog predicted a 2nd place finish for Navy with the note that the Middies return nine of their top 10 scorers. Leon also identified senior guard Kaleo Kina as one of the Patriot Leagues "best returnees"...
So Far...
Navy (Patriot League, 8-3, RPI #209) comes to the Mainline off a lose Saturday to Canisius (MAAC, 4-7, RPI #150). The Middies best wins this season include a 12 point win over St. Francis(NY) (NEC, 3-6, RPI #144) and a 3 point win over Mount St. Mary's (NEC, 3-7, RPI #139). The Midshipmen's two "best losses" were a gutty 9 point loss to the Va Tech Hokies (ACC, 7-4, RPI #88) and the aforementioned 5 point loss to the Golden Griffens of Canisius. Villanova and Navy both played Towson and Penn so far this year:
Frontcourt vs frontcourt...
...Coach Lange used a traditional starting lineup in the beginning of the season, putting sophomore Mark Veazey (6-10, 230lbs) in the middle and flanking him with senior forward Adam Teague (6-8, 225lbs). The past few games he has started 4 guards and brought Teague in for about 30 minutes. Sophomore Jeremy Wilson (6-10, 235lbs), junior T.J. Topercer (6-8, 227lbs) and senior Brian Richards (6-9, 235lbs) see limited minutes, not in every game. Those three contribute mostly through rebounding.
Villanova will start Dante Cunningham and Antonio Pena, as they have in their previous eleven games. Dwayne Anderson has started the last two games, now that his rehabilitation is completed. Frank Tchuisi may also see minutes if the game is in hand, or someone is in foul trouble.
Backcourt vs backcourt...
...Navy has started four guards in their previous three games. The quartet, senior Kaleo Kina (6-4, 210lbs), junior Chris Harris (6-2, 185lbs) and sophomores Romeo Garcia (6-4, 207lbs) and O.J. Avworo (6-0, 195lbs), have, over the past four games, collectively taken over 70% of the minutes available (Kina alone accounts for 90% of the minutes at a single guard position). If they are on the floor together, assume that at least 4 of every 5 shots taken will come from one of those four (most often from Kina). Collectively they account for 2/3 of all shots taken by the team over the past 4 games. Coach Lange has a mid-major version of Nova's four guard offense from 2006, with Kaleo Kina as their Randy Foye. Kina has become the focus of the offense too, taking over 1 in 3 of the Middies' FGAs when he is on the floor. The most prolific outside shoot however is the junior guard Chris Harris, with forward Adam Teague and Kina a distant 2nd and 3rd. Navy will take nearly 4 in 10 FGAs from beyond the arc, so Harris and Kina (and Teague) will shoot early and often.
Villanova has started Scottie Reynolds and Corey Stokes in every game this season. Expect that to continue. For the past two games senior Dwayne Anderson has started over sophomore Corey Fisher. Fisher and junior Reggie Redding will rotate in within the first 5 - 8 minutes of the first half. Both will take doule digit minutes, with Fisher playing some #1 and #2, while Redding covers everything from #1 to #4 (but mostly #2 & #3). Scottie remains the 1st option on offense, with Corey Stokes adding a nice complement from the outside. Both Coreys, Stokes and Fisher had very efficient games against La Salle. Hopefully this game will continue the trend.
Navy By the Numbers...
The Middies' RPI has fluctuated in a range of low 200s to low 300s over the past 5 years. Navy's offense fits the perimeter-oriented (POT) style outlined by John Gasaway in his previous life as The Big Ten Wonk. The Midshipmen prefer a higher possession style game, averaging about 71.5 possessions, adjusted, via Ken Pomeroy's Navy Scout Page which ranks them #51 out of approx. 343 (the current average D1 pace is 67.8). Navy's offense has struggled so far, netting about 0.966 points per possession (96.6 ORtg), good for a #225 ranking. Their defense, giving up (adjusted) about 0.994 (99.4 DRtg -- (ranked #158) is closer to (and a bit better than...) the D1 average of 99.7. Looking below the surface numbers, at Oliver's Four Factor, we find...
At 47.9 the Midshipmen are below the D1 average on field goal efficiency, yet their 3FGM conversion rate, at 32.0%, is the reason their ranking is so low (#195). The balance of Navy's offensive factors (TO%, OR% and FTA/FGA) all fit Gasaway's POT profile. Given the Wildcat's 3 point shot defense (currently at 31.2%, but historically much more porous...) should receive a good test Monday evening. The rebounding matchup should be very interesting. Nova is outstanding at defending the boards, while Navy has struggled (or does not consider them an offensive priority...). Look for a big defensive rebounding night, the type of conditions (other factors considered) that could spell another double-double night for Dante Cunningham. Again owing to Navy's POT profile, a Villanova defensive weakness, putting opposing players on the charity stripe, may not be a factor in this game. Looking at the other half of the matchups...
Defensive eFG% is the same for both teams -- I will be interested to see how each team actually shoots and defends. The 'Cats have been effective from the floor, the rise in eFG% in part the result of integrating the front court (ie Dante Cunningham) into the offense. Navy is an average defensive rebounding team, while Nova has been pretty good on the offensive boards over the course of the season, though they have fallen off the in the past 3 games. Navy's tendency to foul (FTA/FGA -- the Middies are ranked #296) is a weakness that may well be tracable to their smaller (less athletic?) line up. Navy's guard quartet tends to collect a lot of whistles, with Garcia and Harris the two most likely to sit via DQs. Villanova's larger front court and more athletic wings ought to be able to exploit their counterparts. The 'Cats routinely look for 20% or more of their points from the line.
Finally...
...While the Navy staff has favored a four guard starting line up lately, I wonder if they will go with Teague at the #4 to counter Villanova's size, and sit one of Harris, Garcia (most likely?) or Avworo for the first few minutes. Should they go with the smaller line up will Villanova counter by pairing Clark, Anderson and/or Redding with Cunningham/Pena (rather than playing Te and Tone in tandem).
Pomeroy projects the teams to get about 69 possessions apiece (above the average for D1), with Nova notching a 22 point decision. That margin of victory seems high, especially given Coach Lange's history on the Villanova staff, that the players and staff continue to mull and develop their roles within the offensive and defensive framework and the staff's tendency to tinker and adjust playing time.
What Others Say...
...Blue Ribbon gives the backcourt a A, the frontcourt a C+ and the bench/depth a B+. The BRY predicts the Middies will finish 3rd in the Patriot League this season. Marty Leon over at the Rush the Court Blog predicted a 2nd place finish for Navy with the note that the Middies return nine of their top 10 scorers. Leon also identified senior guard Kaleo Kina as one of the Patriot Leagues "best returnees"...
So Far...
Navy (Patriot League, 8-3, RPI #209) comes to the Mainline off a lose Saturday to Canisius (MAAC, 4-7, RPI #150). The Middies best wins this season include a 12 point win over St. Francis(NY) (NEC, 3-6, RPI #144) and a 3 point win over Mount St. Mary's (NEC, 3-7, RPI #139). The Midshipmen's two "best losses" were a gutty 9 point loss to the Va Tech Hokies (ACC, 7-4, RPI #88) and the aforementioned 5 point loss to the Golden Griffens of Canisius. Villanova and Navy both played Towson and Penn so far this year:
| Nova | Navy | |||
| Opponent | W/L | Diff. | W/L | Diff. |
| Towson | W | +17 | L | -18 |
| Penn | W | +23 | W | +11 |
Frontcourt vs frontcourt...
...Coach Lange used a traditional starting lineup in the beginning of the season, putting sophomore Mark Veazey (6-10, 230lbs) in the middle and flanking him with senior forward Adam Teague (6-8, 225lbs). The past few games he has started 4 guards and brought Teague in for about 30 minutes. Sophomore Jeremy Wilson (6-10, 235lbs), junior T.J. Topercer (6-8, 227lbs) and senior Brian Richards (6-9, 235lbs) see limited minutes, not in every game. Those three contribute mostly through rebounding.
Villanova will start Dante Cunningham and Antonio Pena, as they have in their previous eleven games. Dwayne Anderson has started the last two games, now that his rehabilitation is completed. Frank Tchuisi may also see minutes if the game is in hand, or someone is in foul trouble.
Backcourt vs backcourt...
...Navy has started four guards in their previous three games. The quartet, senior Kaleo Kina (6-4, 210lbs), junior Chris Harris (6-2, 185lbs) and sophomores Romeo Garcia (6-4, 207lbs) and O.J. Avworo (6-0, 195lbs), have, over the past four games, collectively taken over 70% of the minutes available (Kina alone accounts for 90% of the minutes at a single guard position). If they are on the floor together, assume that at least 4 of every 5 shots taken will come from one of those four (most often from Kina). Collectively they account for 2/3 of all shots taken by the team over the past 4 games. Coach Lange has a mid-major version of Nova's four guard offense from 2006, with Kaleo Kina as their Randy Foye. Kina has become the focus of the offense too, taking over 1 in 3 of the Middies' FGAs when he is on the floor. The most prolific outside shoot however is the junior guard Chris Harris, with forward Adam Teague and Kina a distant 2nd and 3rd. Navy will take nearly 4 in 10 FGAs from beyond the arc, so Harris and Kina (and Teague) will shoot early and often.
Villanova has started Scottie Reynolds and Corey Stokes in every game this season. Expect that to continue. For the past two games senior Dwayne Anderson has started over sophomore Corey Fisher. Fisher and junior Reggie Redding will rotate in within the first 5 - 8 minutes of the first half. Both will take doule digit minutes, with Fisher playing some #1 and #2, while Redding covers everything from #1 to #4 (but mostly #2 & #3). Scottie remains the 1st option on offense, with Corey Stokes adding a nice complement from the outside. Both Coreys, Stokes and Fisher had very efficient games against La Salle. Hopefully this game will continue the trend.
Navy By the Numbers...
The Middies' RPI has fluctuated in a range of low 200s to low 300s over the past 5 years. Navy's offense fits the perimeter-oriented (POT) style outlined by John Gasaway in his previous life as The Big Ten Wonk. The Midshipmen prefer a higher possession style game, averaging about 71.5 possessions, adjusted, via Ken Pomeroy's Navy Scout Page which ranks them #51 out of approx. 343 (the current average D1 pace is 67.8). Navy's offense has struggled so far, netting about 0.966 points per possession (96.6 ORtg), good for a #225 ranking. Their defense, giving up (adjusted) about 0.994 (99.4 DRtg -- (ranked #158) is closer to (and a bit better than...) the D1 average of 99.7. Looking below the surface numbers, at Oliver's Four Factor, we find...
| When Navy has the ball... | ||||
| FTA | ||||
| eFG% | TO% | OR% | FGA | |
| Middie O | 47.9 | 20.0 | 31.1 | 29.1 |
| Wildcat D | 44.4 | 23.1 | 28.9 | 35.5 |
At 47.9 the Midshipmen are below the D1 average on field goal efficiency, yet their 3FGM conversion rate, at 32.0%, is the reason their ranking is so low (#195). The balance of Navy's offensive factors (TO%, OR% and FTA/FGA) all fit Gasaway's POT profile. Given the Wildcat's 3 point shot defense (currently at 31.2%, but historically much more porous...) should receive a good test Monday evening. The rebounding matchup should be very interesting. Nova is outstanding at defending the boards, while Navy has struggled (or does not consider them an offensive priority...). Look for a big defensive rebounding night, the type of conditions (other factors considered) that could spell another double-double night for Dante Cunningham. Again owing to Navy's POT profile, a Villanova defensive weakness, putting opposing players on the charity stripe, may not be a factor in this game. Looking at the other half of the matchups...
| When Villanova has the ball... | ||||
| FTA | ||||
| eFG% | TO% | OR% | FGA | |
| Wildcat O | 52.4 | 18.1 | 37.4 | 32.1 |
| Middie D | 44.4 | 19.8 | 32.3 | 44.2 |
Defensive eFG% is the same for both teams -- I will be interested to see how each team actually shoots and defends. The 'Cats have been effective from the floor, the rise in eFG% in part the result of integrating the front court (ie Dante Cunningham) into the offense. Navy is an average defensive rebounding team, while Nova has been pretty good on the offensive boards over the course of the season, though they have fallen off the in the past 3 games. Navy's tendency to foul (FTA/FGA -- the Middies are ranked #296) is a weakness that may well be tracable to their smaller (less athletic?) line up. Navy's guard quartet tends to collect a lot of whistles, with Garcia and Harris the two most likely to sit via DQs. Villanova's larger front court and more athletic wings ought to be able to exploit their counterparts. The 'Cats routinely look for 20% or more of their points from the line.
Finally...
...While the Navy staff has favored a four guard starting line up lately, I wonder if they will go with Teague at the #4 to counter Villanova's size, and sit one of Harris, Garcia (most likely?) or Avworo for the first few minutes. Should they go with the smaller line up will Villanova counter by pairing Clark, Anderson and/or Redding with Cunningham/Pena (rather than playing Te and Tone in tandem).
Pomeroy projects the teams to get about 69 possessions apiece (above the average for D1), with Nova notching a 22 point decision. That margin of victory seems high, especially given Coach Lange's history on the Villanova staff, that the players and staff continue to mull and develop their roles within the offensive and defensive framework and the staff's tendency to tinker and adjust playing time.
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