Showing posts with label Devin Ebanks. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Devin Ebanks. Show all posts

Sunday, December 27, 2009

Seton Hall - West Virginia -- Home for the Holidays

The Boys Are Back in Town...
A game in Newark, NJ, scheduled the day after Christmas for a team from West Virginia may sound like a hardship. But temper that first impulse, for 6 of West Virginia's 16 rostered players (Da'Sean Butler, Devin Ebanks, Kevin Jones, Darryl Bryant, Danny Jennings and Wellington Smith) a game at the Rock is practically a home game. They played their High School ball in and around New York City, Long Island or New Jersey. This was more like "Home for the Holidays" than "Long Strange Trip". And those 6 made the most of the chance to play in front of family and friends as they collectively shot 25-51 (7-18, 18-33) and 18-23 -- that is 83.6% of the Mountaineers' FGAs (and 81.6% of the team's 3FGAs). The six players accounted for 75 of West Virginia's 90 points (83.3%).

In the first half it did not appear that Seton Hall was getting any rebounds at all. Indeed the splits indicate the Pirates snagged <25% of their misses, but gave VWU 31.6% of their's, better than the D1 average (about 33%). The Pirates' 1st half problems derived from their inability to stop West Virginia from converting shots. Indeed, WVU's eFG% was 50.0%, based on a 50% conversion rate for 2s, and a 33% conversion rate for 3s. Very consistent. Seton Hall implemented a press to exploit WVU's lack of point guard skills on the floor (note that both Mazzulla and Bryant had dings. Though both played & logged about 62.5% of the minutes at the #1, neither was particularly effective offensively & even less so defensively). The Mountaineers had a 1st half turnover rate of 15.8, when combined with their 2nd half turnover rate (13.8), suggests the Hall's press was ineffective.

Half-time Adjustments
Coach Gonzalez appeared to have solved a few of the Hall's 1st half deficiencies, namely on the boards. But he failed to find a good strategy for the press. But the Hall's conversion efficiency (eFG%) remained flat at 43.1% for both halves. Improvements came from getting to the line and controlling their offensive boards better (up to 37.5%, from 23.1%), and getting to the line more. Converting at the line became very problematic however. The game was lost at the line in fact. While WVU had a free throw conversion rate of 72.7% (24 of 33), the Pirates could muster no better than 48% (16 of 33). Even merely matching WVU's conversion rate would have translated into a win.

Notes and Observations
1. Jeremy Hazell scored a career-high 41 points on 14-33 and 9-12 shooting. His eFG% was a disappointing 48.5% with a 1.06 PPWS, good, but not great numbers. Hazell took 34% of the Hall's possessions (a very large percentage) and over 42% of the squad's shots, when he was on the floor. Both numbers are high for anyone not named Michael Jordan, but Coach Gonzalez seemed to have made peace with the idea that Hazell would consume a lot of the Pirate's possessions and shots this season.
2. Keon Lawrence and Jeff Robinson 2 recently re-instated players, had comparatively quiet games. Lawrence scored no points in 7 minutes of action, while Robinson scored 5 points in 19 minutes.
3. Coach Huggins played his 4 forward (plus a guard) starting lineup for 79.1% of the available minutes (in contrast with Coach Gonzalez's 65.9% usage). The high percentage suggests the game was close (it was), but also lacking point guard level ball handling skills was not a point of vulnerability.
4. "No one in the Big East can score faster than Jeremy Hazell. Everyone knows that..." -- Coach Huggins.

Friday, November 27, 2009

Roster Moves -- Discipline?

I came across this piece from Gary Parrish over at CBSSports.com. Ebanks has not played in any of West Virginia's games this season, the subject, according to Parrish, of a disciplinary move by head coach Bob Huggins. The staff (ie Huggins) will not disclose the reason for Ebank's benching nor the length of time his punishment will run. According to Parrish, Ebanks' punishment will end...when the coach feels he is needed. The Mountaineers are playing in the 76 Classic, an early season invitational tournament held in Anaheim, CA. The field includes West Virginia, Long Beach State, Clemson, Texas A&M, Butler, UCLA, Minnesota and Portland. With Clemson, Butler, UCLA and Long Beach State (complements of the 'Eers) having lost in the 1st round, Ebanks was brought in to play 30 minutes in WVU's 2nd round game versus Texas A&M. Ebanks scored 12 points and dished 4 assists as West Virginia won 73-66.

Thursday, November 5, 2009

Preview 2009-10 -- West Virginia Mountaineers

Too Busy for the Details?
Returning 65.9% of a squad that finished #7 in the conference last season before a disappointingly early exit from the NCAAs, hopes are very high for the Mountaineers, with many pegging West Virginia as the #1 or #2 team in the conference. This would be a tremendous development for Coach Bob Huggins, a West Virginia alum who returned to Morgantown 2 seasons ago when John Beilein took the Michigan job. Huggins and staff have incorporated the strengths of Beilein's "Flying Circus" squad into a more inside, power basketball-focused offensive system. This could be, despite the loss of senior Alex Ruoff, a breakout season for the 'Eers...if they can get consistent play from their backcourt. Prognosis -- A 1st quartile finish.

3 Years At a Glance
Coach Huggins gets a double bonus this season -- this season's squad will have the most "Huggins-oriented" make up of any squad he has had at Morgantown, and it is the most experienced Mountaineer squad he has managed in his short tenure.

Returning...
201020092008
%Min65.958.853.8
%Pts63.559.256.4
%FGM66.760.057.0
%3FGM41.664.852.8
%OReb88.265.252.8
%DReb77.160.058.9
%TReb81.261.757.0


Losing Alex Ruoff hurts, especially with outside shooting (note the 41.6% returning %3FGM above), but much of the rest of West Virginia's offense and defense returns intact as Coach Huggins works to balance his outside threats (Butler & the newcomers Mitchell and Pepper) with inside 'tweeners like Smith, Ebanks, Jones and Flowers (& the newcomers Kilicli & Jennings).

According to Pomeroy...
2008-092007-082006-07
#Rank#Rank#Rank
Overall ORtg115.318116.721118.313
Overall DRtg89.11490.42494.057
Big East ORtg106.38107.44106.24
Big East DRtg98.1399.64103.412
Four Factors -- Overall
All Off. eFG%48.519351.411254.717
All Off. TOv%17.94216.1617.010
All Off. OReb%40.8534.69930.2270
All Off. FTA/FGA35.919036.617128.2320
All Def. eFG%46.66148.08049.3131
All Def. TOv%23.33322.67623.839
All Def. OReb%31.611930.78035.2251
All Def. FTA/FGA38.422239.723728.833
Four Factors -- Big East Only
BE Off. eFG%47.51248.21053.92
BE Off. TOv%17.4514.8117.33
BE Off. OReb%37.7333.0924.816
BE Off. FTA/FGA29.21340.1330.313
BE Def. eFG%47.7350.21151.614
BE Def. TOv%20.9321.7321.14
BE Def. OReb%32.1531.3535.914
BE Def. FTA/FGA39.71337.7834.810
Miscellanious
All Gms Cons25.332727.133324.2295
All Gms Luck-.075311-.025203+.015122

Possibly a reflection of the change in coaching styles, the Mountaineers rank for the 2nd season running, near the bottom of DI for Luck and Consistency. A troubling trend that hints the Mountaineers may struggle unexpectedly at times and could well post a won-loss record lower than the squad's Pythagorean Winning Percentage would suggest.

For the Record...
2008-092007-082006-07
WLPct.WLPct.WLPct.
Overall23120.65726110.7032790.750
Big East1080.5561170.611970.563
Post Season?NCAA/Rnd 1NCAA/Rnd 3NIT/Champ


The Mountaineer's Nucleus
Coach Huggins will bring back Ebanks & Butler, two of West Virginia's 3 top scorers from 2009. Losses from the #5 spot (little used Josh Sowards and Dee Proby both transferred out) have thinned the front court, but Coach Huggins, not a big fan of the space eater-type low post player, will go with quartet of 'tweeners who range from 6-7 to 6-9, and tip the scales from 215 to 250 or so. A handful of those 'tweeners are returnees -- Butler, Smith, Jones, Flowers & Thoroughman.

On Offense
PlayerMin%ORtgPoss%Shot%eFG%PPWSOR%FTRA
Butler82.6107.726.129.049.21.067.130.4
Ebanks75.2108.720.518.147.91.069.649.8
Bryant63.7102.621.921.347.91.051.635.7
Smith53.3104.415.815.043.60.9410.237.6
Jones48.1113.616.719.550.31.0210.723.7
Flowers42.0104.915.615.349.60.989.433.8
Thoroughman21.794.013.17.143.80.9214.068.8
Mazzulla10.7102.418.912.741.10.992.285.7

Bryant and Mazzulla were suspended from all basketball activities during the off season. The school however posted both to the preseason roster, and sure enough they were re-instated before the Fall practice (mid October). With Ebanks and Mazzulla reinstated, the Mountaineers will enter the season with a deep and experienced back court, including bodies (returning and entering) to man the #1 and #2. And the same goes for their front court.

On Defense
PlayerMin%DR%Ast%TO%Stls%Blk%
Da'Sean Butler82.613.511.516.11.02.3
Devin Ebanks75.220.217.418.72.61.7
Darryl Bryant63.76.721.222.20.11.3
Wellington Smith53.39.811.317.37.81.6
Kevin Jones48.118.26.79.63.81.9
John Flowers42.012.611.016.44.91.7
Cam Thoroughman21.714.312.931.71.52.6
Joe Mazzulla10.710.231.123.50.02.8

Bryant and Mazzulla are clearly the point guards (note their assist and turnover rates -- Ast% and TO% respectively), but the others are very good at distributing the ball. No one, Thoroughman excepted, is especially loose with the ball either.

Significant Additions
Coach Huggins continues to stock his squad with athletic forwards, consistent with teams/programs he built at Akron, Cincinnati and Kansas State, before coming to West Virginia. The incoming class, 3 Top 100 (ESPNU) ranked freshmen and the JUCO Player of the Year (also consistent with his recruiting practices), is a consensus top 2/3 class in the Big East. , if short of point guards. Casey Mitchell, a 6-4 SG out of Chipola Junior College, Florida will step into the wing spot vacated by Alex Ruoff. Mitchell was JUCO player of the year last season when he chipped in 20 ppg for Chipola. He will go a long way in filling the point void left by the departed Ruoff. He may take some ball handling responsibilities should Mazzulla and/or Bryant not be re-instated in 2009-10. Deniz Kilicli is a 6-9 Turkish import who will step into the #4/#5 and push Smith, Jones and Thoroughman for time. Kilicli played for the Turkish national team this past summer in the World University Games (Serbia), and was ranked #47 by ESPN/Scouts, Inc., in their 2009 Top 100. The NCAA, however, suspended him for West Virginia's first 20 games this season for play on a Turkish team that also employed a professional player. Strictly prohibited under NCAA rules. Dan Jennings, a 6-8, 225lb #4 out of St. Thomas More School in Connecticut (a name that should be familiar to Villanova fans), will compete for time in the low post. A physical player who likes to draw contact, Jennings was ranked #60 by ESPN/Scouts, Inc. Dalton Pepper is another name familiar to the Wildcat faithful. Pepper graduated from Pennsbury HS in Pennsylvania, was on Villanova's recruiting radar until he pulled the trigger for West Virginia in 2008. Pepper continues the "Philadelphia guard" tradition with physical play and rebounding to go with his shooting. Pepper is also rated in ESPN/Scout Inc.'s Top 100 (#96), and will compete with wing Da'Sean Butler for playing time. If Mazzulla & Bryant remain suspended through the beginning of the season look for Pepper to get a look at the #1.

Explode If...
1. Coach Huggins can solidify the point guard position. Having either (or both) of junior Joe Mazzulla and sophomore Darryl Bryant would be a huge step for the program. Both are fast, can slash into the lane and are strong enough to finish after contact. Mazzulla may be a bit rusty after taking a red shirt last season. The summer suspension may also have set him back. Bryant spent most of last season on the steep side of the learning curve. His shooting should be more accurate this season, which will be a big boon for the program.
2. Coach Huggins can find a productive rotation for the forward spots. One or more of Kilicli, Jennings or Smith (more likely) will spend time in the low post. Of the returning players Ebanks and Jones were the more productive on the boards. Kilicli or Jennings can get time if he can rebound.
3. A combination of (an improved) Ebanks, Bryant, Flowers and Jones, along with newcomers Casey Mitchell and/or Dalton Pepper surpasses Alex Ruoff's offensive production. The staff will no doubt give each a long look.
4. The 'Eers can figure out how to break on the high side of .500 on the road. Over the past 2 conference seasons West Virginia has gone 13-5 at home, and a far more modest 8-10 on the road. They went 7-2 at home, very close to the max. An 8-1 home record coupled with a 5-4/6-3 road record should seal a #1 seed in New York City next March.


Implode If...
The usual demons of injury & egos aside, Huggins' teams have often proven to be their own worst enemies. The first two seasons passed with only 2 - 3 distractions. Are Mazzulla and Bryant an anamoly or a hint of things to come.

Crucial Run/Bellweather Games
West Virginia will face Long Beach State in the first round of the 76 Classic. The second round opponent will be either Texas A&M or Clemson, with the third rond opponent coming from the other bracket...one of UCLA, Minnesota or Butler, most likely. 2-1 -- or better 3-0 -- should warm the hearts throughout the Mountaineer Nation. WVU will host (former Rutgers Coach) Gary Waters' Cleveland State Vikings, a team that upset Syracuse last season in the Carrier Dome, then face Ole Miss, coached by former Huggins' assistant Andy Kennedy. Going undefeated (or 9-1...) into the Big East regular season would be a strong signal the 'Eers are ready to contend for the Big East title. Their January/February leg contains three more OOC opponents, in-state rival Marshall, along with national powers Purdue and Ohio State -- both nationally televised games.

West Virginia jump starts their Big East season with a trip to Newark to face the Seton Hall Pirates at the Rock in what promises to be a good test. A run back to Morgantown for their home opener versus the Marquette Golden Eagles will be followed by a trip to Indiana to play Purdue. Marquette may be the breather in that run. A breather back home against Rutgers will be followed by a two game road trip, first to South Bend and the Fighting Irish, followed by a swing down to Tampa and a matchup with the Bulls. Those games should be a good barometer of how far the Mountaineers are progressing. Beating both the Irish (generally tough to do at the Joyce Center) and the Bulls could put WVU at 5-0 (or 4-1) going into a mini-homestand where they deal first with Syracuse and then their last two (before the NCAAs) OOC opponents (Marchall & Ohio State). 3-0 through that stand should have the 'Eers ranked in the top 10, especially if they are #1 in the Big East standings at that point. The real test for Coach Huggins' squad will come in the last 5 games of the regular season, as WVU will come off of another two game road trip (to Pittsburgh and then Providence) to host Seton Hall and close out their home-n-away series with the Pirates. The 'Eers travel to Storrs to close out their mirror games with the Huskies, and return home to face Cincinnati, then Georgetown. And then they finish with a road closer at Villanova. Note four of those five opponents are projected to finish in the top 6 of the conference, with a season-ending clash between the preseason #1 & #2 ranked teams. Irrespective of their record entering this last leg of the conference play (13-0? 12-1? 11-2?), it is very unlikely they will go 5-0. 4-1 is likely (not necessarily Villanova), even 3-2 (or 2-3?) would not be shocking.

Friday, February 13, 2009

Preview -- West Virginia

The Wildcats take to the road and travel to Morgantown, West Virginia to tackle the Mountaineers of West Virginia University. The 'Cats are hot, riding the crest of a 6 game winning streak that has carried them to a 20-4 season record, and 8-3 in the Big East. The 'Eers have been part of the post season conversation since the season's start, but a sub .500 record in conference would take them off of the NCAA's Dance Card. Currently they sport a 16-8 overall record, and 5-6 in the Big East, largely due to a slate of opponents that has included 2 games with Pitt (both losses), Connecticut, and road games against Louisville, Syracuse and Georgetown. The Wildcats would love to take the streak out at least one more. West Virginia would love to even their Big East tally & add a Top 10 win to their tournament resume...

Common Opponents, Good Wins, Bad Losses...
Villanova and West Virginia typicall move in different OOC circles, but come conference time, especially at this point in the season, have a few more common conference opponents:
NovaWest Va
OpponentW/LDiff.W/LDiff.
Seton HallW (A)OT +4W (A)+26
ConnecticutL (A)-6L (H)-6
MarquetteL (A)-7L (A)-22
MarquetteW (H)+18  
ProvidenceW (A)+3W (H)+27
South FloridaW (A)+9W (H)+3
PittsburghW (H)+10L (H)-12
Pittsburgh  L (A)-11
St. John'sW (H)+21W (H)+23
SyracuseW (H)+17L (A)-13
LouisvilleL (H)-1L (A)-6

West Virginia's best OOC win was Ohio State (Big Ten, 17-5, RPI #22). Aside from OSU, they have a 6 wins versus Top 100 RPI teams, giving them a record of 6-2 versus Top 100 OOC teams. Their two losses came at the hands of Kentucky (SEC, 17-7, RPI #64) and Davidson (Southern Conf, 19-4, RPI #49). As the table above shows, WVU has good (Top 100) wins from the conference schedule -- Providence (#62) and Seton Hall (#90). ...

Lineups, Rotations...
...Coach Huggins lost athletic junior pg Joe Mazzulla (6-2, 200lbs) for the season in the Davidson game (game #8 on their schedule), and had to saddle freshman Darryl "Truck" Bryant (6-2, 200lbs) with a good deal of responsibility early. The balance of the lineup has pretty much been set from the beginning of the season. Huggins will start senior Alex Ruoff (6-6, 220lbs) alongside Bryant in the back court, with a trio of 'tweener forwards, juniors Da'Sean Butler (6-7, 225lbs), Wellington Smith (6-7, 225lbs) and freshman Devin Ebanks (6-9, 205lbs), in the front court. Playing time for the starters has gone up since the beginning of Big East play as Coach Huggins has tightened his rotation. Huggins allocated about 66% of the PT to his starting lineup for OOC play; the starter's run increased to just over 70% at the start of Big East play, rising to nearly 75% going into Friday's game. He has also trimmed his rotation over time, from about 11.5 down to just over 10. As for the playing time, expect between 8 and 7 players to get > 10 minutes. If the game is close Coach Huggins will tend to the lower range of the rotation.

One of sophomore John Flowers (6-7, 195lbs) or freshman Kevin Jones (6-8, 220lbs) will be first off the bench. Each has garnered double digit minutes in the past 4 or so games. Next? Expect to see redshirt sophomore Cam Thoroughman (6-7, 225lbs), who has appeared in nearly every West Virginia game this season. The deeper region of the bench holds red shirt junior Josh Sowards (6-7, 205ls), JUCO junior center Dee Proby (6-10, 240lbs) and sophomore guard Will Thomas (6-5, 210lbs), who tend to see the court when matters have already been settled.

The Nova staff will have to shuffle the lineup now that Dwayne Anderson's bone bruise will sideline the senior for (at least?) one game. Continuing the trend of the past 3-4 games, senior forward Shane Clark and junior swing man Reggie Redding will most likely start alongside junior Scottie Reynolds and senior forward Dante Cunningham. Each is generally playing more minutes than they were last month. One of the Coreys, either Fisher or Stokes, will most likely get the call for the last spot. Given the impact he has had when he entered the Providence, Marquette and Syracuse games, I suspect it will be Fisher, though the staff, looking at West Virginia's length, may opt for Stokes. Antonio Pena will most likely have his minutes increased as well.

By the Numbers, Offense & Defense...
West Virginia plays for about 66.7 possessions, just a bit less than Villanova ('Cats adjusted pace is 68). This game will match WVU's #35 ranked offense against Villanova's #16 ranked defense, and Villanova's #23 offense against WVU's #6 ranked defense. A "Four Factors" comparison for when West Virginia has the ball...

When West Virginia has the ball...
 FTA
eFG%TO%OR%FGA
'Eer O48.518.239.836.0
Wildcat D45.521.830.138.9


WVU's offense is, according to Ken Pomeroy's Scouting Report, very typical for D1 teams -- they take about 1/3 of their FGAs from beyond the arc, and earn their points (by percentage) in a "very average" manner. Just over 1 in 4 points (27.4%) come from beyond the arc, about 1 in 5 (20.1%) from the charity stripe, the balance earned from 2s. And yet, per Ken Pomeroy's Scouting Report), they do it (quite) a bit better than the average D1 team, a paradox given the Mountaineer's very average shooting efficiency (eFG% ranked #183 -- see table above) & ability to get to the line. They convert about 48% of their 2s (ranked #185), but only 32.7% of their 3s (ranked #218) and 67% of their FTs (ranked #200), suggesting the WVU squad converts through persistence, rather than accuracy. They separate from the D1 pack through turnovers (they don't -- a carryover from the Beilein teams?) and offensive rebounding (they do, and very well). Grabbing those misses for 2nd chance opportunities can be very important for a team with very average at converting possessions into points. The Mountaineers' success at rebounding has been spotty though, good against most Big East opponents, but ineffective against Pittsburgh in their second game (about 11%, catastrophic for an average shooting team), Connecticut, Louisville and Syracuse. The 'Cats have been (with a few exceptions...) effective on the defensive boards, where even the guards are active. The WVU offense will go through 2 players, Bryant and Ruoff. One of those two has touched the ball before over 40% of WVU's FGMs. Both are ranked in Pomeroy's top 500 for assist rate. West Virginia limits turnovers because 3 of the 5 players most likely to take a shot (Butler, Ruoff and Jones) are also ranked in Pomeroy's top 500 as least likely to commit a turnover. The upper classmen, Ruoff and Butler, are the most efficient scorers on the squad, and they are 2 of the 3 players most likely to take a shot. Those two, along with the freshman Bryant, are also most likely to launch a 3. The "Four Factors" look at Villanova's offense versus WVU's defense:

When Villanova has the ball...
 FTA
eFG%TO%OR%FGA
Wildcat O52.018.636.643.6
'Eer D45.425.532.140.9


Want to Beat West Virginia? Then...
The most significant determinate for this matchup is, like most of the earlier matchups, shooting. And it is not close...
1. Challenge their shooting, close down the inside & make them shoot 3s. WVU is 12-0 when they post an eFG% of 48.5 or better. When held to Nova's defensive eFG% (44.5) or less, the 'Eers are 3-8. Having played 7 games (3 against Big East teams) where they shot an eFG% < 40, it is clear West Virginia is capable of having very cold shooting nights.
2. Hit your own shots. While eFG$s of 60.0 or higher (Nova's last 2 games) are outliers, the 'Cats have had only one game (Louisville) where their eFG% was less than 46.4. In games where opponents have converted at 45.5 or higher, the Mountaineers have gone 4-6.
3. Value the ball, don't turn it over. Nova's turnover rate is 18.6 -- WVU's record when their opponent's turnover rate is Nova's or less, is 2-4. The 'Cats are 11-1 when they make their 18.6 turnover rate or lower.

Finally...
...Both teams feature 'tweener front court players who will man the low post, while guards & swingmen roam the wing probing for weaknesses and defensive breakdowns. Villanova will put a third guard (Reggie Redding, Corey Stokes...) out on the wing, while West Virginia will counter with a taller, forward-type player (Ebanks, Butler...). That matchup may be critical for determining who controls the boards off of West Virginia's basket. Ruoff, Butler and Bryant are WVU's 1st three options on offense, with Ruoff and Butler, wing men, the most efficient scorers on the team. Both are in the 6-6/6-7 range, and will present matchup problems for the 6-4/6-5 guards Nova will most likely put on them. Forcing Bryant to take even more offensive responsibilities might work to depress WVU's conversion efficiency. While Villanova's last three games have also been the team's best offensive outings, the 'Cats up to that point had not shown an affinity for a higher tempo game. It will be intersting to see if which squad shows up to play Friday.

Pomeroy projects the game to be played for 67 possessions (well within both team's comfort zones) with the 'Eers taking a 5 point decision. The 'Cats have exceeded those projections in 7 of their last 8 games.