Showing posts with label James McAdoo. Show all posts
Showing posts with label James McAdoo. Show all posts

Sunday, July 25, 2010

U17 FIBA Player Efficiencies

What We Learned
Eight games is not enough to draw conclusions about the U17 players. They won't tell me how (or if?) they will play in college or whether/how high a level they can play after college, but a box score is a box score, and eight of them, when compiled as a series, can provide us with a narrative about the tournament and the teams involved. And that in turn, ought to tell us one or two things about the players who make up the team, and how they playded those games. I have compiled the possession-based stats for the USA U17 team, and divided the tables into "scoring" stats (time, possession percentage, shot percentage, shot efficiency, scoring efficiency and getting to the line) and "defense/team" stats (assist rate, turnover rate, rebounding -- offensive rate and defensive rate -- steal rate and blocking rate). There are links in the Possession-based sidebar for those who are curious about the details and what lies behind the numbers. Players who have given verbal commitments to a D1 college are highlighted in orange.

FTA
Player%MinPoss%Shot%eFG%PPWSFGA
J Anderson17.518.920.975.01.498.3
B Beal64.924.422.867.51.3721.6
Q Cook53.124.015.250.01.0713.2
A Drummond31.826.424.963.51.2219.2
M Gilchrist48.725.120.065.61.4270.3
J McAdoo53.723.623.064.21.2924.7
J O'Bryant35.019.414.430.30.8354.5
T Parker14.423.123.459.11.2331.8
C Randle32.517.318.868.81.375.0
M Teague48.726.517.535.70.8442.9
A Thomas49.026.523.341.30.8613.3
T Wroten50.924.517.744.90.9835.6

Among the trio of players who formed the first scoring option, the most efficient was Florida-bound Brad Beal a 6-2 sg out of Chaminade College Prep H.S. in St. Louis. The guard played just over 50% of the minutes available in Coach Showalter system, but managed to log double-digit outings in each game, the most consistent scorer on the USA squad. Beal scored 25 points in 20 minutes against Australia in Team USA's quarter-final game, but his 20 points in 22 minutes against China, followed the very next day with 18 points in 17 minutes versus Egypt should have raised a few eyebrows. His perimeter shooting in particular was devastating to opponents, as he hit on 47.7% of his three point attempts, while taking 67.7% of his field goal attempts from beyond the arc. Three point accuracy was a problem for the Gators last season (31.3% accuracy), I am sure Florida Coach Billy Donovan can't get Beal on campus soon enough.

USA Coach Don Showalter did not start Michael Gilchrist, nor did he give the sf out of St. Patrick's in New Jersey even play 50% of the time, but when the 6-7 wing dominated the opposition he did it in a very big way. Gilchrist scored 16 points in 18 minutes of play against Argentina, also notching a double-double, the first of two he would earn in the tournament. Gilchrist also scored 18 points in 16 minutes versus the Egyptians, and 30 points in 25 minutes (on his way to his second double-double of the tournament) against the Canadians. The wing's shot efficiency (eFG% and PPWS) was sensational (though a bit inconsistent game-to-game), but his 70% FTA/FGA is probably the most noteworthy of his scoring stats. He was at the line with almost every FGA, which suggests he did not mind going into the lane when he had to score. He will really have fun in Coach Calipari's DDM system.

James McAdoo, the 6-8 UNC-bound forward, formed the third efficient scoring prong in the USA arsenal. McAdoo converting mostly on two point field goal attempts, posted a 64.2% eFG% to go with a 1.29 PPWS. Among the rotation players, Andre Drummond and Tony Parker, both low post players tended to assume central scoring roles when they checked into games. Both efficiently converted scoring opportunities into points, assuring the team had little drop off from the starting front court players. Quinn Cook, Chasson Randle and Justin Anderson took secondary scoring roles, but converted at times even more efficiently than the first options.

Ast%TO%OR%DR%Blk%Stl%
J Anderson4.712.58.315.76.64.7
B Beal9.515.64.97.24.53.8
Q Cook37.525.94.97.70.52.6
A Drummond5.414.720.127.511.81.3
M Gilchrist11.512.411.421.93.02.8
J McAdoo3.113.013.019.98.14.4
J O'Bryant2.814.211.718.01.72.8
T Parker2.84.116.228.64.00.0
C Randle4.79.89.010.10.92.5
M Teague33.420.30.67.90.64.0
A Thomas6.615.910.18.91.23.4
T Wroten23.119.93.43.21.17.6

Among those who had to be disappointed with their inability to score, Kentucky-bound guard Marquis Teague, out of Indianapolis, Indiana had numbers that stood out. The staff, however, continued to start the 6-2 guard despite his 37.5% eFG%, because Teague used his speed to draw contact and get to the line, or draw the defenders. Working as a counterpart to Quinn Cook, Team USA's starting point guard, Teague contributed a high assist rate (33.4), many no doubt from kick-outs to patiently waiting wings like Brad Beal and Justin Anderson, who converted from long distance with great efficiency. Team USA compiled the stronges offensive rebounding numbers in the tournament field, and were third behind Canada and Germany in defensive rebounding. Drummond and Parker were dominant on both boards when they drew minutes, while in that part of the rotation that drew more minutes, Gilchrist and McAdoo stood out, at both ends of the floor. Adonis Thomas was unusual in that he appeared to be more effective on the offensive rather than the defensive, glass.

Where They are Going
In an birthday quirk, only four members of the 12 man USA squad have committed to schools as members of the 2011 (high school) class. This not a recruiting blog, and I am not offering up to the minute information about schools and players, but the table below is my best understanding as of late July (2010). Players who verballed are again highlighted in orange.

HS ClassVerbal/Interest
Justin Anderson2012Duke, UNC, Texas, MD, etc.
Brad Beal2011Florida
Quinn Cook2011UK, KU, UCLA, Duke, etc.
Andre Drummond2012PC, UConn, WVU, Florida, etc.
Michael Gilchrist2011Kentucky
James McAdoo2011North Carolina
Johnny O'Bryant2011Kansas, Arkansas & others
Tony Parker2012TBD
Chasson Randle2011Illinois, Purdue, KU, Stanford, etc.
Marquis Teague2011Kentucky
Adonis Thomas2011Arkansas, Florida, etc.
Tony Wroten2011Kentucky, Washington

Monday, July 12, 2010

FIBA U17 World Championship -- USA Over Poland 111-80

How the USA Brought Home the Gold
Team USA has routinely played these FIBA games for 90 or more possessions, while the Poles typically played for about 10 fewer possessions per game, 81. The Poles may have won the tempo battle, but Team USA won the game, harvesting over 1.33 points per possession, while yielding 0.99 ppp to the Poles. Poland started strong, punching the ball in twice inside the lane, to grab a 4-0 lead in the game's first minute, but Team USA responded with a 7-0, two minute run to grab the lead for good. Poland played a competitive first quarter, trailing by 5 (29-24) as the quarter ended. The Americans matched their first quarter production (29 points) again in the second quarter, but the Poles could not keep up, falling behind by 17 points going into half-time. The Poles won the third quarter (21-20), but the Americans turned on the after burners and ran out the fourth quarter with a 33-18 run, closing out the Poles 111-80, a margin of victory larger than their semi-final win over Canada.

Game-Highs, Leaders
6-7 forward Tomaz Gielo recorded a game-high 21 points on 9-15 (1-4, 8-11) and 2-2 shooting. Three other Poles, guards Filip Matszak (14 points) and Mateusz Ponitka (14 points), along with forward Piotr Niedzwiedzki (10 points) scored double digits points. Przemyslaw Karnowski paced the Poles with 6 (3-3-6) rebounds. James McAdoo paced Team USA with 20 points, scored in 24 minutes. McAdoo was efficient, hitting 9-13 from the field to go with 2-2 from the line. Three other Americans, Brad Beal (19 points), Michael Gilchrist (16 points) and Tony Wroten (13 points) recorded double-digit outings as well. Adonis Thomas snagged a game-high 8 (5-3-8) rebounds, followed closely by McAdoo and Johnny O'Bryant who snagged seven apiece in the winning effort. Point guard Quinn Cook dished 11 assists in 24 minutes of play. Cook's 39% assist rate, along with his 13% defensive rebounding rate atoned in part for an atrocious shooting night. Cook converted only one of seven field goal attempts, a three pointer he nailed in the third quarter. Coach Showalter allocated 60% of the playing time to his starting five.

By the Numbers...
Opponent:PolandFTA
PaceEff.eFG%FGAOR%TO%PPWSAst%Blk%Stl%
Offense83.1133.559.212.657.118.01.2155.39.49.6
Defense96.252.321.936.832.51.1450.010.918.0

Team USA shot well (59.2%), better than the Poles (52.3%), but the difference in the conversion rate does not explain the scoring gap between the two teams. All things equal, Team USA's margin of victory would have been between 10 and 15 points -- but "things" were not equal. A quick scan of the table indicates the Poles lost over 30% of their possessions (versus <20% for Team USA) and were unable to offset the difference either on their offensive boards or at the free throw line. The Poles' defense, second only to the USA through seven games, faltered badly in the eighth.

Notes & Observations
1. In the eight games of basketball in this tournament, the USA U17 team won 24 of the 32 quarters they played. Of the eight they "lost", three were 4th quarters, when the game was in hand, and three were lost by a single point.
2. Unlike Jeff Capel, who coached the USA team in the U18 Americas Cup Tournament, Coach Showalter gave his starting five at least 50% of the playing time in six of the tournament's eight games. Against Poland Coach Showalter used his starters for 60.2% of the game, only the second time in the tournament he kept his starters in for 60% or more of the game.
3. The Poles functioned as an "inside" team through much of the tournament, though in the games (versus the Americans excepted...) they "went outside" they were very effective. Using Kevin Pelton's "Inside/Outside" formula (for an A10, conference-wide application of this measure, check out Ray Floriani's piece over at College Chalk Talk. Ray employed Ken Pomeroy's variation to the teams of the A10 Conference), the Poles ranged from 0.10 (modestly inside-oriented versus Serbia) down to -0.55 (outside-oriented versus the Americans). Two of the Poles' "outside" games went well, they beat the Australians by 17 and the Germans by 46. In the gold medal game however, the Poles probably took their offense outside because they fell behind early.

Sunday, July 11, 2010

FIBA U17 World Championship -- USA Over Canada 103-83

Oh, Canada
Canada's Dyshawn Pierre may have drawn first blood, but Team USA consigned the Canadians to the #3-#4 game Sunday with a 103-83 win over Team Canada. The USA's Young Guns will meet Poland Sunday to determine which country will win FIBA's 1st U17 World Championship. The Canadians provided the Americans with their sternest test since their opening game 82-70 win over Argentina on July 2. Team USA tied the game at 8:38 of the 1st Quarter on two made free throws from Adonis Thomas, then took the lead on a Brad Beal trey at 8:18. 6-1 guard Kevin Panagos brought the Canadians even again with a three point field goal of his own, but the Americans retook the lead 8-5, with a Quinn Cook three pointer at 7:32, and never looked back. The Canadians were down 13 at the end of the 1st Quarter 30-17, but won the 2nd Quarter 25-18, to draw within six by the half (48-42), but Team USA won the 3rd and 4th Quarters, pushing their record for quarters to 25-3 for this competition, and cruised home 103-83.

Leaders, Double-Doubles
Kentucky-bound Michael Gilchrist paced all scorers with 30 points on 11-15 (0-0, 11-15) and 8-10 shooting and 15 rebounds (6-9-15)  in 25 minutes of play. This is Gilchrist's first double-double of the competition, providing a hint of things to come in Lexington no doubt.  Forward James McAdoo also logged a double-double for the Americans, scoring 10 points (on 4-13, 2-3 shooting) and 12 (6-6-12) rebounds. Brad Beal (17 points) and Adonis Thomas (12 points) also scored in double digits in 32 and 21 minutes of play respectively. 6-7 guard Andrew Wiggins paced Team Canada with 20 points on 7-13 (0-1, 7-12) and 6-9 shooting in 22 minutes of play. Kevin Panagos chipped in 17 points on 5-13 (4-10, 1-3) and 3-4 shooting. Junior Lomomba, a 6-5 guard out of Longueuil, Canada , was the 3rd member of the Canadian squad to score in double digits, logging 13 points on 5-15 (0-3, 5-12) and 3-5 shooting. Dyshawn Pierre matched Michael Gilchrist's 15 rebounds with 15 (5-10-15) of his own.

Next...
Team USA will face Poland, 75-65 victors over Lithuania in the other semi-final game, on Sunday afternoon in the Gold Medal game.

Friday, July 9, 2010

FIBA U17 World Championship -- USA Over Australia 105-70

Can the Aussies Run?
Australia drew first blood 10 seconds into quarter #1, and the game was competitive for the next five or so minutes. At the 5:23 mark of the first quarter Team USA launched a 6:05 minute, quarter-jumping 22-8 blitz that pushed the Aussies to an arm's length that lasted the balance of the game. Australia whittled the USA bulge down to eight points six minutes into the second quarter, but never got closer. Team USA took a 16-8 run to finish out the half, then followed with a 22-8 run through the first half of the third quarter, pushing the margin to 30 points (74-44). The USA squad switched on the cruise control and finished with a 31-26 run, 105-70.

Game Highs, Team Leaders
Brad Beal and James McAdoo paced Team USA with 25 and 17 points respectively; Taylor Dyson, a 6-4 guard from East Melbourne, led Team Australia with 16 points. Dyson was the only Aussie to score double digit points. USA center Andre Drummond notched a double-double, scoring 10 points to match with his 12 (6-6-12) rebounds. Drummond's 12 rebounds was the game-high, as Owen Odigie, a 6-5 forward out of Carlton snagged eight rebounds (3-5-8) to pace Team Australia.

By the Numbers...
Through the first 3 - 4 possessions the Australians took their (first) field goal attempt within 10 or so seconds of taking possession. Once Team USA went on their first extended run however, it was clear the Australians could not keep up. The possession-based break down...

Opponent:AustraliaFTA
PaceEffeFG%TO%OR%FGAPPWSAST%
Offense91.0115.458.120.940.023.81.1958.5
Defense76.943.525.319.151.60.9266.7

Coming out of pool play, Team Australia averaged 74 possessions per game (range...>=66.7<=77.8) -- this game was played for about 14 more possessions than their previous highest possession game. For Team USA however, this game was well within their comfort zone. While Team Australia's shot efficiency was consistent with their pool games, Team USA owned the boards (note Australia's 19.1 OR% -- they rebounded less than 1 in 5 of their missed FGAs). Too many Australian possessions were one-and-done efforts. That the boys from Down Under shot a meager 50% from the free throw line did not help their effort, especially given that they had 32 FTAs overall. Free throw shooting throughout the tournament has been a weakness, and those 16 points left at the charity stripe would not have turned this loss into a win (and it would not have changed the results in either of their previous two losses). Team USA's play was consistent with their previous five outings -- offensive efficiency was over 1.1 points per possession for the fifth straight game, while they held their opponent to an efficiency of < 0.80 for the fifth time in six games. If the Americans can continue to convert their shots at a combined 55% (eFG%) or better, and control the boards, they will be hard to stop. The team had an assist rate (Ast%) of 58.5%, just below their tournament average of 60%, as Quinn Cook (7), Tony Wroten (7) and Marquis Teague (8) combined for 22 of the team's 24 assists.

Next...
Team USA will meet Canada tomorrow in one of the semi-final matches.

Thursday, July 8, 2010

FIBA U17 World Championship -- USA After Pool Play

AAU Studs
The U17 American squad that emerged Wednesday from Pool play with a 5-0 record, should be familiar to anyone who follows the High School recruiting circuit for Division 1 basketball. Conventional Wisdom posits that USA squads dominate world play until (roughly) the U19/U21 tournaments, tournaments where athleticism and individual talent can dominate the completition. FIBA-sponsored tournaments of older teams (U19/U21, Pan American Games, etc. (other) national teams, comprised largely of more developed players who bought into team play concepts have seen more success versus the individually talented USA squads.

Date/OpponentUSAOpp.
7/2 vs Argentina8270
7/3 vs Lithuania10266
7/4 vs China11373
7/5 vs Egypt13264
7/6 vs Serbia11275

The team lost to the Russian U18 team in a pre-tournament warm-up game -- their early play versus the Argentines (a country whose older teams have challenged the USA at times...) was tentative -- but they hit their stride as pool play progressed. Against the better teams in the pool, the Serbs, the Lithuanians and Argentines -- the scoring margins suggest this squad follows the established pattern: early talent and athleticism dominate. Taking a deeper, "four factors" snapshot of the five pool games the USA played through July 7...

vs ArgentinaFTA
PaceEffeFG%PPWSFGAOR%TO%
Offense90.290.941.10.9442.546.028.8
Defense77.644.50.9532.819.027.7
 
vs LithuaniaFTA
PaceEffeFG%PPWSFGAOR%TO%
Offense93.1109.662.31.2624.734.326.9
Defense70.938.70.8846.827.732.2
 
vs ChinaFTA
PaceEffeFG%PPWSFGAOR%TO%
Offense93.8120.554.61.1431.040.417.1
Defense77.948.31.0438.340.538.4
 
vs EgyptFTA
PaceEffeFG%PPWSFGAOR%TO%
Offense99.0133.363.01.2925.035.712.1
Defense64.634.60.6932.132.326.3
 
vs SerbiaFTA
PaceEffeFG%PPWSFGAOR%TO%
Offense82.8135.459.11.2144.248.713.3
Defense90.651.51.0224.235.727.8
 
AverageFTA
PaceEffeFG%PPWSFGAOR%TO%
Offense91.8117.956.01.1733.541.019.6
Defense76.343.50.9234.931.030.5

The pace -- possessions per game estimate -- jumps out. The possession rate is far closer to the NBA (and AAU tournament circuit) than D1 (about 66-67 possessions on average). The American squad has dominated by running...and then running some more. They have scored very efficiently in a transition-oriented offense. Consider that each team gets about 92 possessions, that is 184 possessions in 40 minutes, or about 13 seconds per possession per team. Team USA's opponents, down early, are forced to play in the American system, but they have been unable to keep up. Note that Argentina, the closest by margin game of the competition, actually converted their shots more efficiently than Team USA. The Americans won however, because they significantly outrebounded the Argentines (the Argentine shooting was largely one-and-done on their possessions), thus giving themselves 2 and at times, 3 opportunities to score in a possession. Later teams (China and Serbia) were more competitive on the boards, but were outshot by the Americans, who had found their zone in the second and third pool games.

Player Snapshots
The squad members have been fixtures on the AAU circuit for the past two summers, and will no doubt entertain fans of a number of D1 colleges (unless Coach Cal gets them all...) beginning in the fall of 2011...

FTA
Player%MinPoss%Shot%eFG%PPWSOR%FGA
Justin Anderson21.521.523.170.01.3910.910.0
Brad Beal61.524.423.164.01.333.826.3
Quinn Cook55.022.915.460.31.275.114.7
Andre Drummond27.826.726.563.61.2318.218.2
Michael Gilchrist51.523.518.463.21.3910.068.4
James McAdoo52.021.822.566.01.2911.729.8
Johnny O'Bryant35.521.213.321.10.8110.694.7
Tony Parker16.024.424.962.51.3111.743.8
Chasson Randle34.018.921.270.71.409.76.9
Marquis Teague47.028.318.032.40.840.058.8
Adonis Thomas45.526.624.638.90.828.313.3
Tony Wroten49.520.215.145.00.994.740.0

The squad's offensive domination has masked the shooting struggles of Teague, O'Bryant, Wroten and Thomas (see eFG% and PPWS). For Teague, Wroten and O'Bryant, free throw conversions have mitigated their 32.5% conversion rate (FGM%) from the floor. Some additional secondary possession-based stats...

PlayerAst%TO%DR%Blk%Stl%
Justin Anderson6.314.218.26.68.4
Brad Beal12.114.57.84.66.5
Quinn Cook39.624.27.90.04.6
André Drummond6.917.732.313.82.3
Michael Gilchrist14.414.421.13.74.2
James McAdoo3.99.618.48.28.4
Johnny O'Bryant4.317.414.70.07.2
Tony Parker4.35.627.25.90.0
Chasson Randle5.710.29.00.04.3
Marquis Teague31.122.99.30.07.7
Adonis Thomas7.614.47.62.15.6
Tony Wroten18.717.42.60.012.5

If Quinn Cook's assist rate -- 39.6% -- is indicative of his play, some D1 coach will be very happy come 2011. I first tracked this number in the Lithuanian game, and at that time it was over 40%. He has several games in the 45+ range. That means that on 45% of the field goals made, Cook is (while he is on the floor) the last player before the shooter, to touch the ball. Note this is on a team that scores most of it's points in transition, which suggests that Cook takes the ball, brings the ball over mid-court and (after several passes back-and-forth? Not likely...) finds a player in scoring position and gets him the ball...in about 13 seconds. Unlike U18 Coach Jeff Capel, who worked to distribute the minutes, Coach Don Showalter has consistenly played his starting five (Quinn Cook, James McAdoo, Johnny O'Bryant, Adonis Thomas and Brad Beal) for 50%-55% of the available minutes. Drummond, Gilchrist and Parker may be very effective on both offensive and defensive boards, but Michael Gilchrist is the only one of the trio to see 50% of the minutes at his position.

How adept is the squad at playing at lower pace? We may not find out, unless the hot hands (Gilchrist, Beal and McAddo have done nicely as primary offensive options, Anderson, Cook, Drummond, Parker and Randle have done very well as secondary options) cool considerably, we may not find out. The Europeans prefer a more deliberately paced motion offense, and, entering the one-and-done play of the medal rounds, the American become more vulnerable to this slower style. If the Americans can keep running, they may well run every other team out of the gym.

Next...
Team USA, the 1st in Group A will meet Australia, the 4th seed from Group B on Friday July 9, in one of four medal quarterfinal games. The Australians earned a 3-2 record in pool play over the last week, beating #3 seed Germany, #5 seed Spain and #6 seed South Korea, while losing to #1 seed Poland and #2 seed Canada.