Showing posts with label Andre Drummond. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Andre Drummond. Show all posts

Friday, September 30, 2011

Roster Moves --- Eve of Fall Practice


Soft Rosters & Pickup Games
Classes are back in session, the fall semester has started (or the fall quarter for some schools), and the schedules, much like the rosters, are the subject of press releases. During the summer a summer league (or pick up game) injury might not be reported for days, even weeks. The same holds for unreported Spring and Summer Semester grades and their resulting cumulative GPAs. With classes back in session the programs have to reveal who will actually be available come Fall Practice. There are still a few freshmen who have not been cleared by the NCAA, but now we are learning exactly who they are.

Cincinnati -- Shaq Thomas has been officially cleared to enroll by the NCAA. Cincinnati is on a quarterly system, fall classes to begin shortly, and Thomas is expected to enroll and attend. Though his relatives were vague as to whether the clearance included playing basketball, the Bearcats have listed him on their 2011-12 roster.

Connecticut -- Slapped with sanctions, the Huskies responded by winning the National Championship. Star guard Kemba Walker tossed his name into the NBA draft and Connecticut Head Coach Jim Calhoun, given his age and health, took a long summer to think about his future as mentor of the Huskies' program. Bouyed by the news that Athletic Director Jeff Hathaway (slated to chair the NCAA Selection Committee for the 2012 tournament) had been persuaded to retire, the veteran coach (25 years in Storrs) decided to return for 2012. Within days of Hathaway's announcement Calhoun secured the commitment of Top 10 center Andre Drummond, and to make a spot on the UConn roster (remember those NCAA sanctions?), persuaded Michael Bradley to relinquish his scholarship, in favor of Drummond. Bradley will secure financial aid to cover his tuition costs.

Georgetown -- The Hoyas' front court took a hit when sophomore Moses Ayegba tore his ACL in a Kenner League game last summer (credit under supervised play for another injury). Freshman Tyler Adams sprained his ankle late in the summer, and his availability is uncertain.

Louisville -- The latest word is that recruit Kevin Ware was declared ineligible earlier this month. Ware, a well regarded and well traveled combo guard had signed an NLI with Tennessee, but asked for his release when Coach Bruce Pearl was fired in March. Ware then "signed" with Central Florida, but the NCAA disallowed that NLI, as they ruled that a recruit could not sign two NLIs in a single year. Ware then chose an already packed Louisville program, forcing the staff revisit their planned scholarship allocation for 2011-12. In the end high returning scorer Kyle Kuric, a senior off guard, was one of three players former scholarship players who were reclassified as "walk ons". Officials have announced that Ware will begin classes in December and should be eligible to play in the Spring Semester. While the scholarship shuffle appears unseemly (see Connecticut above), the Cardinals have a history of having preseason and early season injuries put a serious strain on their player rotation. For Coach Pitino caution rather than avarice may have been the principle motivator.

Marquette -- The Warriors only unanticipated losses over the summer were transfers. Erik Williams left for Sam Houston State, while Reggie Smith will lace them up for UNLV...after sitting a year. Coach Buzz Williams has the squad restocked, and fans are looking forward to seeing what Jamil Wilson can do.

Notre Dame -- incoming freshman forward Eric Katenda was blinded in a pickup game in early July. An examination by doctors determined the optic nerve located behind Katenda's left was severed as a result of contact with another player while Katenda was rebounding a missed field goal attempt. Notre Dame head coach Mike Brey indicated that while the team doctors will explore the possibility of Katenda's playing with protective goggles, the Irish will honor his scholarship irrespective of the outcome -- Katenda by the way, insists he will bounce back from this injury. The Irish join a growing number of squads who have 10 (or fewer) scholarship players available in 2012. The front court rotation right now looks like Tim Abromaitis and Jack Cooley to start (with Scott Martin in a swing spot), leaving Joey Brooks, Jack Broghammer and Tom Knight as the bench. While lack of depth is the more obvious problem, the drop off in talent/production from the starters to the bench, has to be cause for concern as well.

South Florida -- As mentioned in a post last week, JUCO center Andre Jackson from Lee College (TX), signed to some fanfare last fall, is not on Coach Stan Heath's roster. A 7-3 freshman, Jordan Omogbehin, does appear on the latest Bulls roster, signed about the same time as Jackson last fall. Coach Heath also added Martino Brock, a 6-5 junior wing, who transferred in from South Alabama. Brock will sit in 2012 per NCAA transfer rules. Jackson was not a game-changer, but second year JUCO, 6-6 guard Hugh Robertson may find himself playing a bit more on the wing and lane than expected.

St. John's -- After a relatively quiet summer, the Red Storm fall semester was rocked with the news that the NCAA had ruled three members of the (highly ranked) incoming class, Jakarr Sampson, Norvell Pelle and Amir Garrett would be ineligible to play in the fall of 2012. Early press releases from St. John's announced the three would remain on campus and work through the eligibility issues, but reports in the following weeks indicate that Sampson, who returned to Brewster Academy (NH) has reopened his recruitment, while Pelle has enrolled in the Phelps School in Malvern, PA (outside of Philadelphia). Pelle, a very highly regarded #5 has ties (former teammates) to the San Diego State program, and may wind up there next season.

Bobby Bancroft over at National Hoops Report summarized it succintly in his "Best Case/Worst Case post on September 23 -- the three miss the first nine games and have six days to practice/play before Big East Conference play starts (an increasingly unlikely "best case") or Coach Lavin goes into an 18 game conference schedule with a squad of eight scholarship players who return less than 5% of the Red Storm's playing time and scoring from 2011. The Red Storm's two JUCOs, God's Gift Achiuwa and Nurideen Lindsey, along with junior Malik Stith, are the only veteran players with significant post high school experience on the hardwood.

Villanova -- Incoming freshman guard Tyrone Johnson missed the Wildcats' European Tour due to fractured ankle sustained in a pickup game in June of 2011. Johnson had surgery prior to Villanova's departure and is reported to have traveled with the team in Europe. Freshman off guard Darrun Hilliard stepped into the back up role for point guard Maalik Wayns on the tour, and Johnson is on schedule for the start of Fall Practice. His boot is off and Johnson is mobile. Two days after the team returned from a six game tour in France and the Netherlands junior forward and team captain Isaiah Armwood announced he would transfer to another university. The 6-9 wing subsequently enrolled at George Washington of the A-10, and will play for the Colonials after sitting out the mandantory one season.

Expect Johnson to be cleared to practice by October 15. Armwood's departure is more problematic. The Nova Nation will no doubt debate "what was" and "what could have been...", but lack of front court depth is the challenge facing Coach Wright this season. A 9/30 tweet from Coach Wright reports that junior walk-on Dallas Ouano will have surgery for a reported knee injury. No more details at this point.

The Wildcat squad is thin, the loss of Armwood was unexpected, reducing the squad to 10 scholarship players and one healthy walk-on.

Sunday, July 25, 2010

U17 FIBA Player Efficiencies

What We Learned
Eight games is not enough to draw conclusions about the U17 players. They won't tell me how (or if?) they will play in college or whether/how high a level they can play after college, but a box score is a box score, and eight of them, when compiled as a series, can provide us with a narrative about the tournament and the teams involved. And that in turn, ought to tell us one or two things about the players who make up the team, and how they playded those games. I have compiled the possession-based stats for the USA U17 team, and divided the tables into "scoring" stats (time, possession percentage, shot percentage, shot efficiency, scoring efficiency and getting to the line) and "defense/team" stats (assist rate, turnover rate, rebounding -- offensive rate and defensive rate -- steal rate and blocking rate). There are links in the Possession-based sidebar for those who are curious about the details and what lies behind the numbers. Players who have given verbal commitments to a D1 college are highlighted in orange.

FTA
Player%MinPoss%Shot%eFG%PPWSFGA
J Anderson17.518.920.975.01.498.3
B Beal64.924.422.867.51.3721.6
Q Cook53.124.015.250.01.0713.2
A Drummond31.826.424.963.51.2219.2
M Gilchrist48.725.120.065.61.4270.3
J McAdoo53.723.623.064.21.2924.7
J O'Bryant35.019.414.430.30.8354.5
T Parker14.423.123.459.11.2331.8
C Randle32.517.318.868.81.375.0
M Teague48.726.517.535.70.8442.9
A Thomas49.026.523.341.30.8613.3
T Wroten50.924.517.744.90.9835.6

Among the trio of players who formed the first scoring option, the most efficient was Florida-bound Brad Beal a 6-2 sg out of Chaminade College Prep H.S. in St. Louis. The guard played just over 50% of the minutes available in Coach Showalter system, but managed to log double-digit outings in each game, the most consistent scorer on the USA squad. Beal scored 25 points in 20 minutes against Australia in Team USA's quarter-final game, but his 20 points in 22 minutes against China, followed the very next day with 18 points in 17 minutes versus Egypt should have raised a few eyebrows. His perimeter shooting in particular was devastating to opponents, as he hit on 47.7% of his three point attempts, while taking 67.7% of his field goal attempts from beyond the arc. Three point accuracy was a problem for the Gators last season (31.3% accuracy), I am sure Florida Coach Billy Donovan can't get Beal on campus soon enough.

USA Coach Don Showalter did not start Michael Gilchrist, nor did he give the sf out of St. Patrick's in New Jersey even play 50% of the time, but when the 6-7 wing dominated the opposition he did it in a very big way. Gilchrist scored 16 points in 18 minutes of play against Argentina, also notching a double-double, the first of two he would earn in the tournament. Gilchrist also scored 18 points in 16 minutes versus the Egyptians, and 30 points in 25 minutes (on his way to his second double-double of the tournament) against the Canadians. The wing's shot efficiency (eFG% and PPWS) was sensational (though a bit inconsistent game-to-game), but his 70% FTA/FGA is probably the most noteworthy of his scoring stats. He was at the line with almost every FGA, which suggests he did not mind going into the lane when he had to score. He will really have fun in Coach Calipari's DDM system.

James McAdoo, the 6-8 UNC-bound forward, formed the third efficient scoring prong in the USA arsenal. McAdoo converting mostly on two point field goal attempts, posted a 64.2% eFG% to go with a 1.29 PPWS. Among the rotation players, Andre Drummond and Tony Parker, both low post players tended to assume central scoring roles when they checked into games. Both efficiently converted scoring opportunities into points, assuring the team had little drop off from the starting front court players. Quinn Cook, Chasson Randle and Justin Anderson took secondary scoring roles, but converted at times even more efficiently than the first options.

Ast%TO%OR%DR%Blk%Stl%
J Anderson4.712.58.315.76.64.7
B Beal9.515.64.97.24.53.8
Q Cook37.525.94.97.70.52.6
A Drummond5.414.720.127.511.81.3
M Gilchrist11.512.411.421.93.02.8
J McAdoo3.113.013.019.98.14.4
J O'Bryant2.814.211.718.01.72.8
T Parker2.84.116.228.64.00.0
C Randle4.79.89.010.10.92.5
M Teague33.420.30.67.90.64.0
A Thomas6.615.910.18.91.23.4
T Wroten23.119.93.43.21.17.6

Among those who had to be disappointed with their inability to score, Kentucky-bound guard Marquis Teague, out of Indianapolis, Indiana had numbers that stood out. The staff, however, continued to start the 6-2 guard despite his 37.5% eFG%, because Teague used his speed to draw contact and get to the line, or draw the defenders. Working as a counterpart to Quinn Cook, Team USA's starting point guard, Teague contributed a high assist rate (33.4), many no doubt from kick-outs to patiently waiting wings like Brad Beal and Justin Anderson, who converted from long distance with great efficiency. Team USA compiled the stronges offensive rebounding numbers in the tournament field, and were third behind Canada and Germany in defensive rebounding. Drummond and Parker were dominant on both boards when they drew minutes, while in that part of the rotation that drew more minutes, Gilchrist and McAdoo stood out, at both ends of the floor. Adonis Thomas was unusual in that he appeared to be more effective on the offensive rather than the defensive, glass.

Where They are Going
In an birthday quirk, only four members of the 12 man USA squad have committed to schools as members of the 2011 (high school) class. This not a recruiting blog, and I am not offering up to the minute information about schools and players, but the table below is my best understanding as of late July (2010). Players who verballed are again highlighted in orange.

HS ClassVerbal/Interest
Justin Anderson2012Duke, UNC, Texas, MD, etc.
Brad Beal2011Florida
Quinn Cook2011UK, KU, UCLA, Duke, etc.
Andre Drummond2012PC, UConn, WVU, Florida, etc.
Michael Gilchrist2011Kentucky
James McAdoo2011North Carolina
Johnny O'Bryant2011Kansas, Arkansas & others
Tony Parker2012TBD
Chasson Randle2011Illinois, Purdue, KU, Stanford, etc.
Marquis Teague2011Kentucky
Adonis Thomas2011Arkansas, Florida, etc.
Tony Wroten2011Kentucky, Washington

Friday, July 9, 2010

FIBA U17 World Championship -- USA Over Australia 105-70

Can the Aussies Run?
Australia drew first blood 10 seconds into quarter #1, and the game was competitive for the next five or so minutes. At the 5:23 mark of the first quarter Team USA launched a 6:05 minute, quarter-jumping 22-8 blitz that pushed the Aussies to an arm's length that lasted the balance of the game. Australia whittled the USA bulge down to eight points six minutes into the second quarter, but never got closer. Team USA took a 16-8 run to finish out the half, then followed with a 22-8 run through the first half of the third quarter, pushing the margin to 30 points (74-44). The USA squad switched on the cruise control and finished with a 31-26 run, 105-70.

Game Highs, Team Leaders
Brad Beal and James McAdoo paced Team USA with 25 and 17 points respectively; Taylor Dyson, a 6-4 guard from East Melbourne, led Team Australia with 16 points. Dyson was the only Aussie to score double digit points. USA center Andre Drummond notched a double-double, scoring 10 points to match with his 12 (6-6-12) rebounds. Drummond's 12 rebounds was the game-high, as Owen Odigie, a 6-5 forward out of Carlton snagged eight rebounds (3-5-8) to pace Team Australia.

By the Numbers...
Through the first 3 - 4 possessions the Australians took their (first) field goal attempt within 10 or so seconds of taking possession. Once Team USA went on their first extended run however, it was clear the Australians could not keep up. The possession-based break down...

Opponent:AustraliaFTA
PaceEffeFG%TO%OR%FGAPPWSAST%
Offense91.0115.458.120.940.023.81.1958.5
Defense76.943.525.319.151.60.9266.7

Coming out of pool play, Team Australia averaged 74 possessions per game (range...>=66.7<=77.8) -- this game was played for about 14 more possessions than their previous highest possession game. For Team USA however, this game was well within their comfort zone. While Team Australia's shot efficiency was consistent with their pool games, Team USA owned the boards (note Australia's 19.1 OR% -- they rebounded less than 1 in 5 of their missed FGAs). Too many Australian possessions were one-and-done efforts. That the boys from Down Under shot a meager 50% from the free throw line did not help their effort, especially given that they had 32 FTAs overall. Free throw shooting throughout the tournament has been a weakness, and those 16 points left at the charity stripe would not have turned this loss into a win (and it would not have changed the results in either of their previous two losses). Team USA's play was consistent with their previous five outings -- offensive efficiency was over 1.1 points per possession for the fifth straight game, while they held their opponent to an efficiency of < 0.80 for the fifth time in six games. If the Americans can continue to convert their shots at a combined 55% (eFG%) or better, and control the boards, they will be hard to stop. The team had an assist rate (Ast%) of 58.5%, just below their tournament average of 60%, as Quinn Cook (7), Tony Wroten (7) and Marquis Teague (8) combined for 22 of the team's 24 assists.

Next...
Team USA will meet Canada tomorrow in one of the semi-final matches.

Thursday, July 8, 2010

FIBA U17 World Championship -- USA After Pool Play

AAU Studs
The U17 American squad that emerged Wednesday from Pool play with a 5-0 record, should be familiar to anyone who follows the High School recruiting circuit for Division 1 basketball. Conventional Wisdom posits that USA squads dominate world play until (roughly) the U19/U21 tournaments, tournaments where athleticism and individual talent can dominate the completition. FIBA-sponsored tournaments of older teams (U19/U21, Pan American Games, etc. (other) national teams, comprised largely of more developed players who bought into team play concepts have seen more success versus the individually talented USA squads.

Date/OpponentUSAOpp.
7/2 vs Argentina8270
7/3 vs Lithuania10266
7/4 vs China11373
7/5 vs Egypt13264
7/6 vs Serbia11275

The team lost to the Russian U18 team in a pre-tournament warm-up game -- their early play versus the Argentines (a country whose older teams have challenged the USA at times...) was tentative -- but they hit their stride as pool play progressed. Against the better teams in the pool, the Serbs, the Lithuanians and Argentines -- the scoring margins suggest this squad follows the established pattern: early talent and athleticism dominate. Taking a deeper, "four factors" snapshot of the five pool games the USA played through July 7...

vs ArgentinaFTA
PaceEffeFG%PPWSFGAOR%TO%
Offense90.290.941.10.9442.546.028.8
Defense77.644.50.9532.819.027.7
 
vs LithuaniaFTA
PaceEffeFG%PPWSFGAOR%TO%
Offense93.1109.662.31.2624.734.326.9
Defense70.938.70.8846.827.732.2
 
vs ChinaFTA
PaceEffeFG%PPWSFGAOR%TO%
Offense93.8120.554.61.1431.040.417.1
Defense77.948.31.0438.340.538.4
 
vs EgyptFTA
PaceEffeFG%PPWSFGAOR%TO%
Offense99.0133.363.01.2925.035.712.1
Defense64.634.60.6932.132.326.3
 
vs SerbiaFTA
PaceEffeFG%PPWSFGAOR%TO%
Offense82.8135.459.11.2144.248.713.3
Defense90.651.51.0224.235.727.8
 
AverageFTA
PaceEffeFG%PPWSFGAOR%TO%
Offense91.8117.956.01.1733.541.019.6
Defense76.343.50.9234.931.030.5

The pace -- possessions per game estimate -- jumps out. The possession rate is far closer to the NBA (and AAU tournament circuit) than D1 (about 66-67 possessions on average). The American squad has dominated by running...and then running some more. They have scored very efficiently in a transition-oriented offense. Consider that each team gets about 92 possessions, that is 184 possessions in 40 minutes, or about 13 seconds per possession per team. Team USA's opponents, down early, are forced to play in the American system, but they have been unable to keep up. Note that Argentina, the closest by margin game of the competition, actually converted their shots more efficiently than Team USA. The Americans won however, because they significantly outrebounded the Argentines (the Argentine shooting was largely one-and-done on their possessions), thus giving themselves 2 and at times, 3 opportunities to score in a possession. Later teams (China and Serbia) were more competitive on the boards, but were outshot by the Americans, who had found their zone in the second and third pool games.

Player Snapshots
The squad members have been fixtures on the AAU circuit for the past two summers, and will no doubt entertain fans of a number of D1 colleges (unless Coach Cal gets them all...) beginning in the fall of 2011...

FTA
Player%MinPoss%Shot%eFG%PPWSOR%FGA
Justin Anderson21.521.523.170.01.3910.910.0
Brad Beal61.524.423.164.01.333.826.3
Quinn Cook55.022.915.460.31.275.114.7
Andre Drummond27.826.726.563.61.2318.218.2
Michael Gilchrist51.523.518.463.21.3910.068.4
James McAdoo52.021.822.566.01.2911.729.8
Johnny O'Bryant35.521.213.321.10.8110.694.7
Tony Parker16.024.424.962.51.3111.743.8
Chasson Randle34.018.921.270.71.409.76.9
Marquis Teague47.028.318.032.40.840.058.8
Adonis Thomas45.526.624.638.90.828.313.3
Tony Wroten49.520.215.145.00.994.740.0

The squad's offensive domination has masked the shooting struggles of Teague, O'Bryant, Wroten and Thomas (see eFG% and PPWS). For Teague, Wroten and O'Bryant, free throw conversions have mitigated their 32.5% conversion rate (FGM%) from the floor. Some additional secondary possession-based stats...

PlayerAst%TO%DR%Blk%Stl%
Justin Anderson6.314.218.26.68.4
Brad Beal12.114.57.84.66.5
Quinn Cook39.624.27.90.04.6
André Drummond6.917.732.313.82.3
Michael Gilchrist14.414.421.13.74.2
James McAdoo3.99.618.48.28.4
Johnny O'Bryant4.317.414.70.07.2
Tony Parker4.35.627.25.90.0
Chasson Randle5.710.29.00.04.3
Marquis Teague31.122.99.30.07.7
Adonis Thomas7.614.47.62.15.6
Tony Wroten18.717.42.60.012.5

If Quinn Cook's assist rate -- 39.6% -- is indicative of his play, some D1 coach will be very happy come 2011. I first tracked this number in the Lithuanian game, and at that time it was over 40%. He has several games in the 45+ range. That means that on 45% of the field goals made, Cook is (while he is on the floor) the last player before the shooter, to touch the ball. Note this is on a team that scores most of it's points in transition, which suggests that Cook takes the ball, brings the ball over mid-court and (after several passes back-and-forth? Not likely...) finds a player in scoring position and gets him the ball...in about 13 seconds. Unlike U18 Coach Jeff Capel, who worked to distribute the minutes, Coach Don Showalter has consistenly played his starting five (Quinn Cook, James McAdoo, Johnny O'Bryant, Adonis Thomas and Brad Beal) for 50%-55% of the available minutes. Drummond, Gilchrist and Parker may be very effective on both offensive and defensive boards, but Michael Gilchrist is the only one of the trio to see 50% of the minutes at his position.

How adept is the squad at playing at lower pace? We may not find out, unless the hot hands (Gilchrist, Beal and McAddo have done nicely as primary offensive options, Anderson, Cook, Drummond, Parker and Randle have done very well as secondary options) cool considerably, we may not find out. The Europeans prefer a more deliberately paced motion offense, and, entering the one-and-done play of the medal rounds, the American become more vulnerable to this slower style. If the Americans can keep running, they may well run every other team out of the gym.

Next...
Team USA, the 1st in Group A will meet Australia, the 4th seed from Group B on Friday July 9, in one of four medal quarterfinal games. The Australians earned a 3-2 record in pool play over the last week, beating #3 seed Germany, #5 seed Spain and #6 seed South Korea, while losing to #1 seed Poland and #2 seed Canada.