FIBA U17 World Championship -- USA Over Canada 103-83

Oh, Canada
Canada's Dyshawn Pierre may have drawn first blood, but Team USA consigned the Canadians to the #3-#4 game Sunday with a 103-83 win over Team Canada. The USA's Young Guns will meet Poland Sunday to determine which country will win FIBA's 1st U17 World Championship. The Canadians provided the Americans with their sternest test since their opening game 82-70 win over Argentina on July 2. Team USA tied the game at 8:38 of the 1st Quarter on two made free throws from Adonis Thomas, then took the lead on a Brad Beal trey at 8:18. 6-1 guard Kevin Panagos brought the Canadians even again with a three point field goal of his own, but the Americans retook the lead 8-5, with a Quinn Cook three pointer at 7:32, and never looked back. The Canadians were down 13 at the end of the 1st Quarter 30-17, but won the 2nd Quarter 25-18, to draw within six by the half (48-42), but Team USA won the 3rd and 4th Quarters, pushing their record for quarters to 25-3 for this competition, and cruised home 103-83.

Leaders, Double-Doubles
Kentucky-bound Michael Gilchrist paced all scorers with 30 points on 11-15 (0-0, 11-15) and 8-10 shooting and 15 rebounds (6-9-15)  in 25 minutes of play. This is Gilchrist's first double-double of the competition, providing a hint of things to come in Lexington no doubt.  Forward James McAdoo also logged a double-double for the Americans, scoring 10 points (on 4-13, 2-3 shooting) and 12 (6-6-12) rebounds. Brad Beal (17 points) and Adonis Thomas (12 points) also scored in double digits in 32 and 21 minutes of play respectively. 6-7 guard Andrew Wiggins paced Team Canada with 20 points on 7-13 (0-1, 7-12) and 6-9 shooting in 22 minutes of play. Kevin Panagos chipped in 17 points on 5-13 (4-10, 1-3) and 3-4 shooting. Junior Lomomba, a 6-5 guard out of Longueuil, Canada , was the 3rd member of the Canadian squad to score in double digits, logging 13 points on 5-15 (0-3, 5-12) and 3-5 shooting. Dyshawn Pierre matched Michael Gilchrist's 15 rebounds with 15 (5-10-15) of his own.

Next...
Team USA will face Poland, 75-65 victors over Lithuania in the other semi-final game, on Sunday afternoon in the Gold Medal game.

FIBA U17 World Championship -- USA After Pool Play

AAU Studs
The U17 American squad that emerged Wednesday from Pool play with a 5-0 record, should be familiar to anyone who follows the High School recruiting circuit for Division 1 basketball. Conventional Wisdom posits that USA squads dominate world play until (roughly) the U19/U21 tournaments, tournaments where athleticism and individual talent can dominate the completition. FIBA-sponsored tournaments of older teams (U19/U21, Pan American Games, etc. (other) national teams, comprised largely of more developed players who bought into team play concepts have seen more success versus the individually talented USA squads.

Date/Opponent	USA	Opp.
7/2 vs Argentina	82	70
7/3 vs Lithuania	102	66
7/4 vs China	113	73
7/5 vs Egypt	132	64
7/6 vs Serbia	112	75

The team lost to the Russian U18 team in a pre-tournament warm-up game -- their early play versus the Argentines (a country whose older teams have challenged the USA at times...) was tentative -- but they hit their stride as pool play progressed. Against the better teams in the pool, the Serbs, the Lithuanians and Argentines -- the scoring margins suggest this squad follows the established pattern: early talent and athleticism dominate. Taking a deeper, "four factors" snapshot of the five pool games the USA played through July 7...

vs Argentina					FTA
	Pace	Eff	eFG%	PPWS	FGA	OR%	TO%
Offense	90.2	90.9	41.1	0.94	42.5	46.0	28.8
Defense		77.6	44.5	0.95	32.8	19.0	27.7
vs Lithuania					FTA
	Pace	Eff	eFG%	PPWS	FGA	OR%	TO%
Offense	93.1	109.6	62.3	1.26	24.7	34.3	26.9
Defense		70.9	38.7	0.88	46.8	27.7	32.2
vs China					FTA
	Pace	Eff	eFG%	PPWS	FGA	OR%	TO%
Offense	93.8	120.5	54.6	1.14	31.0	40.4	17.1
Defense		77.9	48.3	1.04	38.3	40.5	38.4
vs Egypt					FTA
	Pace	Eff	eFG%	PPWS	FGA	OR%	TO%
Offense	99.0	133.3	63.0	1.29	25.0	35.7	12.1
Defense		64.6	34.6	0.69	32.1	32.3	26.3
vs Serbia					FTA
	Pace	Eff	eFG%	PPWS	FGA	OR%	TO%
Offense	82.8	135.4	59.1	1.21	44.2	48.7	13.3
Defense		90.6	51.5	1.02	24.2	35.7	27.8
Average					FTA
	Pace	Eff	eFG%	PPWS	FGA	OR%	TO%
Offense	91.8	117.9	56.0	1.17	33.5	41.0	19.6
Defense		76.3	43.5	0.92	34.9	31.0	30.5

The pace -- possessions per game estimate -- jumps out. The possession rate is far closer to the NBA (and AAU tournament circuit) than D1 (about 66-67 possessions on average). The American squad has dominated by running...and then running some more. They have scored very efficiently in a transition-oriented offense. Consider that each team gets about 92 possessions, that is 184 possessions in 40 minutes, or about 13 seconds per possession per team. Team USA's opponents, down early, are forced to play in the American system, but they have been unable to keep up. Note that Argentina, the closest by margin game of the competition, actually converted their shots more efficiently than Team USA. The Americans won however, because they significantly outrebounded the Argentines (the Argentine shooting was largely one-and-done on their possessions), thus giving themselves 2 and at times, 3 opportunities to score in a possession. Later teams (China and Serbia) were more competitive on the boards, but were outshot by the Americans, who had found their zone in the second and third pool games.

Player Snapshots
The squad members have been fixtures on the AAU circuit for the past two summers, and will no doubt entertain fans of a number of D1 colleges (unless Coach Cal gets them all...) beginning in the fall of 2011...

							FTA
Player	%Min	Poss%	Shot%	eFG%	PPWS	OR%	FGA
Justin Anderson	21.5	21.5	23.1	70.0	1.39	10.9	10.0
Brad Beal	61.5	24.4	23.1	64.0	1.33	3.8	26.3
Quinn Cook	55.0	22.9	15.4	60.3	1.27	5.1	14.7
Andre Drummond	27.8	26.7	26.5	63.6	1.23	18.2	18.2
Michael Gilchrist	51.5	23.5	18.4	63.2	1.39	10.0	68.4
James McAdoo	52.0	21.8	22.5	66.0	1.29	11.7	29.8
Johnny O'Bryant	35.5	21.2	13.3	21.1	0.81	10.6	94.7
Tony Parker	16.0	24.4	24.9	62.5	1.31	11.7	43.8
Chasson Randle	34.0	18.9	21.2	70.7	1.40	9.7	6.9
Marquis Teague	47.0	28.3	18.0	32.4	0.84	0.0	58.8
Adonis Thomas	45.5	26.6	24.6	38.9	0.82	8.3	13.3
Tony Wroten	49.5	20.2	15.1	45.0	0.99	4.7	40.0

The squad's offensive domination has masked the shooting struggles of Teague, O'Bryant, Wroten and Thomas (see eFG% and PPWS). For Teague, Wroten and O'Bryant, free throw conversions have mitigated their 32.5% conversion rate (FGM%) from the floor. Some additional secondary possession-based stats...

Player	Ast%	TO%	DR%	Blk%	Stl%
Justin Anderson	6.3	14.2	18.2	6.6	8.4
Brad Beal	12.1	14.5	7.8	4.6	6.5
Quinn Cook	39.6	24.2	7.9	0.0	4.6
André Drummond	6.9	17.7	32.3	13.8	2.3
Michael Gilchrist	14.4	14.4	21.1	3.7	4.2
James McAdoo	3.9	9.6	18.4	8.2	8.4
Johnny O'Bryant	4.3	17.4	14.7	0.0	7.2
Tony Parker	4.3	5.6	27.2	5.9	0.0
Chasson Randle	5.7	10.2	9.0	0.0	4.3
Marquis Teague	31.1	22.9	9.3	0.0	7.7
Adonis Thomas	7.6	14.4	7.6	2.1	5.6
Tony Wroten	18.7	17.4	2.6	0.0	12.5

If Quinn Cook's assist rate -- 39.6% -- is indicative of his play, some D1 coach will be very happy come 2011. I first tracked this number in the Lithuanian game, and at that time it was over 40%. He has several games in the 45+ range. That means that on 45% of the field goals made, Cook is (while he is on the floor) the last player before the shooter, to touch the ball. Note this is on a team that scores most of it's points in transition, which suggests that Cook takes the ball, brings the ball over mid-court and (after several passes back-and-forth? Not likely...) finds a player in scoring position and gets him the ball...in about 13 seconds. Unlike U18 Coach Jeff Capel, who worked to distribute the minutes, Coach Don Showalter has consistenly played his starting five (Quinn Cook, James McAdoo, Johnny O'Bryant, Adonis Thomas and Brad Beal) for 50%-55% of the available minutes. Drummond, Gilchrist and Parker may be very effective on both offensive and defensive boards, but Michael Gilchrist is the only one of the trio to see 50% of the minutes at his position.

How adept is the squad at playing at lower pace? We may not find out, unless the hot hands (Gilchrist, Beal and McAddo have done nicely as primary offensive options, Anderson, Cook, Drummond, Parker and Randle have done very well as secondary options) cool considerably, we may not find out. The Europeans prefer a more deliberately paced motion offense, and, entering the one-and-done play of the medal rounds, the American become more vulnerable to this slower style. If the Americans can keep running, they may well run every other team out of the gym.

Next...
Team USA, the 1^st in Group A will meet Australia, the 4^th seed from Group B on Friday July 9, in one of four medal quarterfinal games. The Australians earned a 3-2 record in pool play over the last week, beating #3 seed Germany, #5 seed Spain and #6 seed South Korea, while losing to #1 seed Poland and #2 seed Canada.