Guest Contributor: Ray Floriani on Turnover Rates

SOUTH ORANGE, NJ -- A few stats jumped off the pages from this weekend. First, you suffer through a 31% turnover rate. And win! At the Seton Hall Women’s game on Saturday, the Hall did just that. Actually for a half it was even worse. The breakdown.

1st Half	Score	Poss	Eff	TO	TO Rate
Marshall	33	37	89	8	22
Seton Hall	30	40	75	16	40

* I do not see every box score in America but still can’t remember a 40% TO RATE. For a game or a half.

Game	Score	Poss	Eff	TO	TO Rate
Marshal	52	73	71	21	29
Seton Hall	73	74	99	23	31

For the second half Marshall had 19 points, 13 turnovers and a whopping 36% rate. Why the turn around, did the Hall go to pressure defense ? Quite opposite, Seton Hall coach Phyllis Mangina went from man to man to basic 2-3 zone and their opponents from Conference USA went into a 20 minute melt down.

Saw on Saturday night that Andrew Nicholson of St.Bonaventure blocked 8 shots in the Bonnies’ 60-53 win over Princeton. Realizing that Princeton will shoot a good deal beyond the arc, decided to figure the Bonnies’ block percentage.

Block percentage is blocks divided by two point attempts. Tigers attempted 27 two pointers. Bonnies had 10 team blocks which figures to an off the charts 37% block rate. On the night Nicholson added 16 points 9 boards to his personal ‘block party’.

	Poss	Eff
Princeton	63	84
St.Bona	61	98

Preview -- Texas

The Wildcats and Longhorns meet up as the overcard for the Jimmy V Classic in Madison Square Garden. This is the third time in four seasons the 'Horns and 'Cats face off, as they concluded a home-n-home series in the Wachovia Center back in 2007. The series is tied 1-1, as each team took the home game, so this game, on a neutral court, will be the tie breaker. Until they meet the next time...

What Others Say...
...Blue Ribbon gives the backcourt a A-, the frontcourt a A- and the bench/depth a B+. The BRY goes on to note --

"...The job Rick Barnes has done at Texas is impressive because the Longhorns have been consistently good under his watch. He's dominated recruiting in his talent-rich home state and managed to land the occasional out-of-state star...Every year, the Longhorns seem to just reload, despite losing key players to the NBA...And that's more or less the case once again...The Longhorns are one of those teams that will have a chance to win the national championship..."
-- Blue Ribbon Yearbook

ESPN Magazine picked the Longhorns to win the Big 12 Conference. Rob Dauster over at the Ballin is a Habit Blog projected Texas as the #10 team in D1 while noting...

"...The core of this Texas team is very talented - Abrams, Mason, James, and Atchley are as good as anyone. But, like last year's team, depth will be the issue, especially at guard as Mason, Abrams, and Augustin were really the only three guys that played (each averaged over 33 mpg, and Texas blew a lot of teams out)..."
-- No. 10 Texas:  2008-2009 Team Preview

Why Everyone Believes...
...AJ Abrams, Damion James, Connor Achley, Rick Barnes...

So Far...
Texas (Big 12, 6-1, RPI #37) has a number of notable wins & losses so far, including wins -- St. Joseph's (A10, 3-3, RPI #92) and UCLA (PAC 10, 4-2, RPI #94)  losses -- Notre Dame (Big East, 5-1, RPI #77). The game will be a benchmark for Villanova going forward, as the 'Cats will eventually face both St. Joseph's and Notre Dame. Villanova enters the game with an 7-0 record, gathered largely against mid/low major competition. Solid wins against Niagara (MAAC 5-2, RPI #53) and Rhode Island(A10 6-3, RPI #31) are encouraging.

Frontcourt vs frontcourt...
...Senior #4/#5 Connor Atchley (6-10, 228lbs), along with juniors #5 Dexter Pittman (6-10, 295lbs) and Damion James (6-7. 222lbs), man the 'Horns front court. Per the Longhorn's pregame notes, Atchley, Pittman and James will get the starting nod. James combines with Abrams and Mason to form a reliable scoring trio for Texas. Pittman starts but tends to get little PT; he averaged about 7 mpg for the last 4 games. Sophomore Gary Johnson (6-6, 233lbs) will be the next guy off the bench. Typically he gets 20 or so minutes and a few shots, manning the #4 he allows Atchley to slide over to cover the center spot.

The Wildcats will start Dante Cunningham and Antonio Pena at the #4/#5. Shane Clark is averaging about 17 minutes a game so far, contributing about 6 points and 3 rebounds per outing. Reggie Redding, the team's "utility man" & may well see time as a #4 if circumstances demand. Senior Frank Tchuisi has provided spot duty in each of Nova's first eight games. Dwayne Anderson may see some court time also.

Backcourt vs backcourt...
...The Athletic Department's "complete notes" publication predicts that Coach Rick Barnes will start senior DJ Abrams (5-11, 161lbs), alongside junior Justin Mason (6-2, 194lbs). Sophomore Dogus Balbay(6-0, 176lbs) and freshman Varez Ward (6-2, 190lbs) will see between 8 and 16 minutes apiece, but have not shot or scored (or rebounded or assisted, etc.) much during their time.

Scottie Reynolds and Corey Fisher will most likely start, with Corey Stokes playing the wing. Reynolds hit his season high in scoring in the Houston Baptist game. Fisher has shown a good deal of progress this season, especially in the Philly Hoops Classic and the games that have followed. Reggie Redding will no doubt get the call if AJ Abrams goes off. Dwayne Anderson saw some court time versus Penn.

Texas By the Numbers...
Over the past 5 years Texas' RPI has been as high as #4 and as low as #109. Four of those seasons has seen the 'Horns ranked #34 or higher (3 in the top 10). Texas runs at very close to average on pace this season. The 'Horns take about 68 (68.1 actually, adjusted) possessions, according to Ken Pomeroy's Texas Scout Page, the D1 average is 68.2, which ranks the Longhorns #145 out of approx. 343 D1 teams. Texas's Offensive Rating (adjusted...), 106.6, ranks them at a respectable (but not elite-level) #83. The defense however, at 77.3 (good for an elite-level #5 ranking...) should make Coach Wright, no defensive slouch himself, very envious. Comparing each team's Four Factors...

When Texas has the ball...
				FTA
	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FGA
'Horn O	51.2	19.9	39.4	20.9
'Cat D	43.3	23.8	27.4	36.6

While Texas is a bit more efficient with their 3 point shooting, their offense takes about 75% of their FGAs inside the arc. With a set of 6-10 front court players complemented by Damion James, makes the decision to go inside a no brainer. Abrams takes about 55% of his FGAs as 3s, so this will be a test for the Wildcat's perimeter defense. Historically 'Cats shot defense has been suspect. This year's improvement may well be confirmed (or disproved?) by the 'Horns. Given their tendency to go inside offensively, they most likely will try to exploit their size advantage versus Cunningham and Pena.

When Villanova has the ball...
				FTA
	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FGA
'Cat O	53.9	17.9	42.0	34.7
'Horn D	40.8	23.3	32.5	29.2

The profiles for the two teams is virtually the same. Their strengths are nearly identical. The Wildcats have compensated for poor shooting by maximizing possessions (limiting turnovers) and second chance opportunities (offensive rebounding). Those are two strong points for Texas defense. And Texas' shot defense is a bit better than Villanova's. Interesting.

Finally...
...This game will match two teams with similar approaches to winning -- value the ball, force turnovers and grab rebounds. On a poor shooting night that will increase the team's odds for winning. Which team will execute their game plan better?

Coach Wright has typically used 9 - 11 players in his rotation, but has shortened the rotation (and bench) to allocate double digit minutes to the first 7 players when the game has been competitive. This may well be the case against Texas. Whether Dwayne Anderson sees time will most likely depend on the condition of his foot and the progress of the game.

Both team's offensive/defensive ratings and pace numbers suggest this will be a virtual tossup game. They will play for about 65 or so possessions (a bit lower than Texas may like?), with the scores, favoring Texas, about a point apart.

Roster Notes, etc.
Villanova
1. Dwayne Anderson appeared briefly in Villanova's game with Penn. Spectators noted post game that he was limping noticably after the game. No word on his availability for Texas.

Texas
1. The Longhorns provide a game preview at their web site.

Houston Baptist Post Game: Cupcakes

The opening tipoff was won by Villanova. The Huskies hung with the Wildcats for 0:57 seconds, until Scottie Reynolds broke a 0-0 tie with a jumper. And for HB it was all downhill from there. After Nova scored 8 unanswered points the Huskies put their first points on the board. They drew to 11-8 and then Villanova went on a 19-1 tear and never looked back. Chris over at IBBW noted that "...There wasn't much to this game at all...'Nova finished with 5 men in double figures and shot the ball well...it's hard to make any real judgements on the team from this game...". And indeed it would appear to be true, given the scoring differential and the liberal use of substitutes. Nova News Blog's Tim said it all with his post title -- "Nova Destroys HB"...

The Official website published the AP wirestory, which duly noted Scottie's season high point haul. Mike Sheridan published another edition of his Post Game Notes feature, and the official box score was up pretty quickly. The box by halves...

Opponent	Houston Baptist
	1st	2nd	Game
Pace	36.4	31.1	67.5
	Offense				Defense
	1st	2nd	Game		1st	2nd	Game
Rating	131.9	144.7	137.9		60.4	112.5	84.4
eFG%	68.8	65.2	67.3		43.5	64.3	53.4
TORate	16.7	12.7	14.8		37.9	22.8	31.1
OR%	33.3	30.8	32.0		11.8	33.3	20.7
FTA/FGA	12.5	78.3	40.0		17.4	66.7	40.9
FTM/FGA	12.5	65.2	34.5		8.7	38.1	22.7
ARate	45.0	72.7	54.8		62.5	60.0	61.1
Blk%	0.0	8.7	3.6		4.3	0.0	2.3
Stl%	2.8	9.5	5.9		19.0	9.8	14.8
PPWS	1.42	1.43	1.42		0.88	1.27	1.08

Believe It or Not!
The defense limited the Huskies to 0.84 points per possession, but that will most likely hurt their Defensive Rating! It is their own fault...the 'Cats held HB to a very robust 60.4 (that is 0.604 points per possession) for the first half, but note (table above) that they could not keep the pressure up in the second half. The Huskies' improved their eFG% substantially complements of senior forward Baron Sauls, who hit a very unlikely 6-6 from behind the line. Sauls was responsible for 30% of the Huskies' FGAs and 60% of their FGMs for the half. Villanova's defensive effort fell off across the board -- eFG%, turnovers (TO%), offensive rebounding (OR%) and getting to the line (FTA/FGA). The dropoff resembles the defensive dropoff in the Monmouth game. A fall off in interest or the product of significant adjustments made in the HB locker room at the half? Maybe...

Observations
1. HB was not world beater on the offensive boards, but they were within the upper 2/3s of D1 (the 65th percentile...). Villanova killed them on their offensive boards, limiting the Huskies to 20.7 for the game, after suffocating them with a 11.8% rebound rate in the first half. That rate beats the #1 ranked Brigham Young by 8%...
2. The Huskies lost nearly 4 in 10 possessions in the first half (37%). Like offensive rebounding, the 'Cats were unable to extend the pressur through the second half. But that 22.8 turnover rate for the second half would rank in the low 100s (#105). Still pretty strong. The letup in eFG% hurt the overall defensive rating.
3. Clark, Cunningham and Pena maintained the front court presence for this game. Shane and Dante shot enough to maintain status as 2nd/3rd offensive option. Antonio scored 10 points, the fifth time in eight games this season.
4. Corey Fisher met his season average for points again last night. Fisher who averages 11.4 points per game posted 12 points. He continued his own rebounding tear by grabbing boards (1 offensive, 2 defensive) to go with his 3 assists.

Ref Notes
Chris Beaver, Bernard Clinton and Mike Stuart were nearly invisible in the first half, blowing a total of 12 fouls and doling out 5 trips to the line. Someone must have said something at halftime (or the teams got very tired...), because the whistled a total of 22 fouls in the second half, good for a total of 32 FTAs. At 34 total fouls, this contest was among the more civil ones this season.

Roster Notes
Villanova --
1. Dwayne Anderson was DNP "Coach's decision" tonight. Coach Wright reported that the pain from the Penn game was not a re-injury, but rather soreness from lack of use.

Preview -- Houston Baptist

The Wildcats host the Houston Baptist Huskies Thursday night at the Pavilion. After weathering a transition period of 2 seasons, Houston Baptist will play a 29 game D1 schedule this season.

Frontcourt vs frontcourt...
HB has started junior transfer Mario Flaherty (6-9, 230lbs) and senior forward Gordon Watt (6-6, 225lbs) a Purdue transfer in all six previous games. They will most likely start versus the Wildcats. Senior forward Demetrius Judge (6-6, 195lbs), a Mobley Area CC graduate started 3 games and has seen minutes (albeit diminishing minutes...) in the other three games as well. Andy Dillon (6-4, 215lbs) has also seen the court. Gordon Watt is the #1 front court scoring option. He typically takes more than a quarter of Houston's FGAs when he is on the court. He was fairly efficient in HB's first few games, but as defenses have begun to focus on him, his numbers have declined.

The 'Cats will start Dante Cunningham and Antonio Pena, much as they have in their seven previous games. Cunningham is coming off of a string of 3 outstanding games, in which he recorded double-doubles in two of them. Pena may be struggling a bit, but will most likely have a great game against the Husky front court. Shane Clark and Frank Tchuisi should also see large amount

Backcourt vs backcourt...
Senior Baron Sauls (6-2, 180lbs), a transfer from Texas Arlington, has started every game. Sophomore Fred Hinnenkamp (6-7, 187lbs), along with seniors Sean Morris (5-10, 180lbs) and Justin Wilson (5-6, 170lbs -- not a typo), a Texas Southern transfer, have split the other starts. Seniors Joe Atang (5-10, 180lbs), Andrew Puzyk (6-3, 185lbs) a JUCO out of Blinn JC, and Jimmy Sanders (6-4, 205lbs), a Kings Point transfer, have all seen minutes at the #2 and #3. Sauls and Wilson seem to be splitting the duties at point. Sauls, Puzyk and Morris generate offense that comes out of the backcourt.

Villanova will start Scottie Reynolds, Corey Fisher and most likely Corey Stokes. Corey Fisher was named to the Philly Classic All-Tournament team, and continued his good run through the Penn game Tuesday night. Reynolds and Stokes

Houston Baptist By the Numbers...
Houston Baptist has been playing for about 71.9 possessions per game, a bit above the D1 average pace team this season adjusted, according to Ken Pomeroy's Houston Baptist Scout Page which ranks the Huskies #44 out of approx. 348 - the current average for pace is 68.7. A four factors comparison of Houston Baptist's and Villanova's offense/defense (and defense/offense) shows...

When Houston Baptist has the ball...
				FTA
	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FGA
Husky O	44.9	24.7	31.4	25.8
'Cat D	42.1	22.7	28.1	36.0

Houston Baptist's offensive efficiency (93.2, adjusted) is ranked #248 by Ken Pomeroy. Villanova has routinely held opponents in the 40s. Houston Baptist breaking 50 points in a 60 possession game with Nova would be a an "offensive win" for the Huskies. Of the four factors listed, HB ranks lower than 200 in 3 (eFG, TO% & OR%). A Wildcat offense to Husky defense comparison is even more striking...

When Villanova has the ball...
				FTA
	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FGA
'Cat O	52.0	18.4	42.8	34.7
Husky D	56.1	18.2	40.5	37.3

HB's defensive rating, 120.7 (adjusted) ranks them #341 in the D1 pecking order. The Huskies are ranked #288 or lower in 3 (again, eFG, TO% & OR%) of the four factors. HB has particular difficulty stopping close in scoring (2FGAs). Expect another big night for Dante Cunningham.

Finally...
This was the last game revealed in Villanova's 2008-09 schedule. The timing of the announcement and the placement of the game suggest this was a last minute arrangement, most likely the consequence of a failed negotiation.

Coach Wright has, with the exception of the Rhode Island game, rotated at least 10 players through the game, often allocating 10 or more minutes to between 7 and 9 of those players. The staff may give every player on the bench some PT against the Huskies, with almost all getting >10 minutes.

The game most likely will be played for about 68 possessions, close to the D1 average. An offensive/defensive comparison projects about a 40 point margin of victory, but the staff has shown an aversion to running up the score, and the team has "lost focus" when the point differential grows beyond 30 - 35. This one will likely not go beyond the low 30s.

Roster Notes...
Villanova --
1. Dwayne Anderson saw limited play against the Quakers for his first action this season. He moved with a noticible limp at the end of his run, the staff speculating that it most likely was soreness from inaction. Hopefully the staff will hold him out of this game.

Penn Post Game: Progress

The opening salvo of the Big 5 season was pretty uncompetitive as Villanova handled Penn 69-47 at the Palestra. Dwayne Anderson's return to action in the 2008-09 season has been the focus on what otherwise was a pretty uneventful game. As noted by Tim over at Nova News, "...he did knock down a 3-pointer and grabbed a rebound. It's great to finally see him back out on the court..." [Nova Quakes Penn]. Check out Chris' reflections on the game over at IBBW; he has posted another good synopsis of the action with notes about key players for both teams. Pete over at Let's Go Nova Blog ran a live blogging session from the Palestra(? -- were you at the game Pete?). I was not able to get over during the game, but the chat record is pretty interesting. I will try to get over if you do that again Pete...

The Official website published the usual AP wirestory along with the box score. And Mike Sheridan produced his usual high quality set of Post Game Notes. For the number-lovers, Mike has listed the years and best starts for Villanova teams. He also notes the Wildcat's recent success in the Palestra. I was surprised to learn the 'Cats have taken 9 of their last 10 Palestra games. Mike's notes are definitely worth a look. The box by halves...

Opponent	Pennsylvania
	1st	2nd	Game
Pace	30.4	33.5	63.9
	Offense				Defense
	1st	2nd	Game		1st	2nd	Game
Rating	118.6	98.6	109.4		79.1	68.7	72.8
eFG%	58.3	38.6	46.6		40.4	30.4	35.7
TORate	26.8	21.0	23.8		16.2	23.8	20.1
OR%	50.0	52.0	51.4		12.5	22.2	17.6
FTA/FGA	33.3	25.7	28.8		15.4	60.9	36.7
FTM/FGA	33.3	17.1	23.7		11.5	39.1	24.5
ARate	66.7	58.3	62.5		66.7	85.7	75.0
Blk%	0.0	2.9	1.7		11.5	8.7	10.2
Stl%	13.4	12.0	12.7		6.5	11.9	9.3
PPWS	1.29	0.84	1.03		0.86	0.78	0.82

Half-over-half Progress
The defense showed improved last night. The Quaker's shot efficiency (eFG%) declined by about 24%, a fairly steep dropoff given their shooting woes in the first half (40% eFG% is below their 48% average going into last night's game). Their offensive collapse (or Villanova defensive dominance...which ever interpretation you want to put on what transpired after the half...) would have been far, far worse had the Quakers not been able to get to the free throw line. Penn received 10 more FTAs in the second half than they received in the first. Those 9 converted free throws translated into 39.1% of their second half point total. What the Qs gained from improved offensive rebounding they gave back on turnovers. If the result was similar to last season's 26 point rout at the Pavilion, the supporting data show that Nova's defense has improved year-over-year. Penn's offensive rating 81.6 as opposed to this season's 68.7. Villanova's offensive decline is a bit puzzling, but, like Penn, tracable to the Wildcat's declining eFG%.

Observations
1. Offensive rebounding numbers are eye grabbing, but hardly shocking given that as a POT, Penn was not going to rebound well against the 'Cats. The two stats to feel good about were Penn's eFG%, both halves, and Penn's second half turnover rate. The Qs have not been lights out shooters, but Nova's shot defense has been the subject of heartburn for three seasons running. Holding Penn to 40 and less for two halves is great.
2. As recorded in Mike Sheridan's Post Game Notes, Dante Cunningham notched his third double-double of the season.
3. Dante Cunningham's performance has been the buzz throughout the Nova Nation today. And with good reason as Dante posted some very impressive shooting numbers, but more significantly, he became the #1 option on offense last night. Whether by design (which I suspect) or accident, Dante, Antonio and Shane each took about 25% (or more...) of the shots when each was on the floor. Given that two of the three played virtually the entire game, that means the Nova front court took about 50% (or more) of the shots throughtout the game. Villanova's gamelong assist rate was 62.5 last night, the guards fed the front court, and the front court delivered.
4. Corey Fisher posted another quite but strong all around game. Fish scored 11 points on 4-8 (2-4, 2-4, 1-3) shooting, dished an assist and picked up 2 rebounds(!) and 2 steals in 28 minutes. His overall contribution was balanced, but his shooting was particularly efficient -- 62.5 (eFG%) and 1.17 (PPWS).

Ref Notes
Jim Haney, Wally Rutecki and Michael Stephens were well behaved tonight. This was one of the lowest fouling games this season with each side whistled for 16 personal fouls. Penn did get an extra free throw, but down 20+ for most of the evening, one free throw was negligible.

Roster Notes
Villanova --
1. Dwayne Anderson returned to action tonight at te Palestra. Dwayne scored 3 points on 1-1 shooting and grabbed a rebound (and lost a turnover...) in 7 minutes of play.
2. Casiem Drummond the junior center who left the team earlier this week is variously rumored to Marist, St. Peter's and Iona.

Preview -- Pennsylvania

The Wildcats and Quakers renew a series on Tuesday that dates back to Villanova's second year of NCAA basketball. The opponents took a hiatus after that first meeting...a 34 year hiatus. But resumed play in 1956 for what has remained (more or less...) an annual match. Tuesday's game marks the 56th time the two teams clash. Villanova holds a 38-17 edge and a 5 game winning streak in what might be the most lopsided of the Big 5 rivalries...

What Others Say...
... Blue Ribbon gives the backcourt a B-, the frontcourt a C and the bench/depth a B. The BRY picked Penn to finish second in the Ivy League this season. Previewer Tony Lane notes "...Ideally Penn now reaps the harvest of some tough ploughing (young squad, injuries, graduations)..." Jeff Borzello from March Madness All Season Blog lists Penn among the "contenders" for the Ivy League title (Cornell is the favorite) with these words...

"...Penn looks to get back atop the Ivy League after falling to third last year. The Quakers are led by their talented frontcourt of all-conference forward Tyler Bernardini and big men Jack Eggleston and Andreas Schreiber. In the backcourt, Harrison Gaines and Kevin Egee lead the way...."
-- 10/22/08 Ivy Preview

So Far...
University of Pennsylvania (Ivy, 1-4, RPI #258) have a single win (see table) and a notable loss (71-86) to North Carolina (ACC, 5-0, RPI #14) which kicked off their season. The 'Cats and Quakers have several opponents in common so far:

	Nova		Penn
Opponent	W/L	Diff.	W/L	Diff.
Monmouth	W	+23	W	+21
Albany	W	+18	L	-10

The 'Cats enter this game sporting a 6-0 record - their most recent effort took The Philly Classic Independence Bracket trophy with a 15 point win over Rhode Island.

Frontcourt vs frontcourt...
...Coach Miller has started sophomore Jack Eggleston (6-8, 215lbs) in every game so far. Senior Cameron Lewis (6-8, 225lbs) got the start against North Carolina, but senior Brennan Votel (6-7, 225lbs) has started the other 4 games as Lewis sees mostly spot duty. Sophomore Conor Turley (6-7, 220lbs), seniors Tommy McMahon (6-7, 210lbs) and Dan Monckton (6-7, 210lbs), along with freshman Garvin Hunt (6-10, 230lbs) fill out the front court rotation. Turley has seen consistent double digit minutes, while McMahon, Monckton and Hunt have appeared for small amounts of time in 1 or 2 of Penn's 5 games. The BRY synopsis spent some ink on junior Andreas Schreiber (6-9, 245lbs), Coach Miller citing him as a barometer for the season. So far Schreiber has made no appearance.

Villanova will counter with senior Dante Cunningham and sophomore Antonio Pena. Cunningham & Pena have started all 6 of Nova's outings, logging 60+% of the available minutes at the #4/#5. Foul trouble to date has been the only inhibitor on time. Cunningham was named MVP of The Philly Classic Tournament last weekend. Seniors Frank Tchuisi and Shane Clark (with guard Reggie Redding sliding over now and again...) fill out the frontcourt rotation. Clark has several good offfensive outings on the books this season.

Backcourt vs backcourt...
...Coach Miller's back court is largely set, as freshman Zach Rosen (6-1, 170lbs), sophomores Tyler Bernadini (6-6, 205lbs) & Harrison Gaines (6-0, 170lbs), along with senior Kevin Egree (6-3, 175lbs) have (collectively) split the starts for all of Penn's games. Rosen, a well regarded pg out of St. Benedict's Prep in Newark, has already logged 80.5% of the time at the #1, having dished 33 assists, he maintains a 5.5:1 assist-to-turnover ratio. Rosen averages 5.5 ppg, though it is closer to 8 ppg over the Quakers' last 3 games. Bernadini, Egree and Gaines have supplied the points from the back court, though rarely do all three go off in the same game. To date only Bernadini, named the Big 5's Rookie of the Year last season, has shown the ability to post numbers north of 20 in a single game. Sophomore Remy Cofield (6-4, 205lbs), along with freshmen Rob Belcore (6-6, 215lbs) and Larry Loughery (6-6, 210lbs) have gathered the balance of the available minutes.

Scottie Reynolds, Corey Fisher and Corey Stokes will most likely start for Villanova. Those three, plus junior Reggie Redding have pulled down all of the starts for the back court. Fisher was named to the All-Tournament team for The Philly Classic over the Thanksgiving weekend, while Redding posted his first double-double against Rhode Island on Saturday. Stokes, a St. Benedict's alum and former teammate of Penn's Zach Rosen, has been hampered over the past week with a strained thumb.

Pennsylvania By the Numbers...
...Penn, along with Princeton has been a perennial contender in the Ivy League, frequently receiving a Dance. Their RPI reflects that dual dominance, as their ranking has ranged from a high of #57 to a low of #261. Penn is used to the <#100 neighborhood of D1 however, spending 3 of the past 5 seasons between #57 and #98. Coach Glen Miller runs an uptempo offense, and Penn's pace, 73.0 possessions (adjusted per Ken Pomeroy's Penn Scout Page) is above average (Quakers ranked #50) - the current average for pace is 68.4. The game should, therefore, offer a contrast in tempo. Villanova has to date played at (an average ajusted) pace of 65.7 possessions per game, noticably lower than the average for D1. I believe the 'Cats have been content to let the opponent set the tempo, a theory this game should test. A four factors comparison of Penn & Villanova...

When Penn has the ball...
				FTA
	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FGA
Quaker O	48.9	17.6	24.9	24.4
Wildcat D	44.3	24.0	27.3	34.9

Coach Miller has fashioned a classic perimeter oriented team (POT). POTs tend to take a lot of 3FGAs (Penn takes 40% of their FGAs from beyond the arc), limit turnovers (because they rarely try to score in the paint), and eschew the contact that comes with competing in the paint (rebounding and free throws). And the table above shows Penn fits the profile, right down to the free throws. Penn's problems so far come with their wings (Bernadini, Egree and Gaines for the most part) not scoring consistently. The team 3FGM% is 30.6, ranking them #246 in D1 (according to Ken Pomeroy's Penn Scouting Report). Scoring on the inside has come from Jack Eggleston or Votel, each of whom has posted double digit points in nearly every game this season. But they have not been able to break double digits together. Villanova has been playing fantastic defense. The Wildcat's eFG% (see above) is ranked #46 in D1. Their 3 point defense will get another close look, if the Quakers' past performance is a good indicator. So far, the 'Cats have limited their opponent's 3FGM% to 27.7, good for a #40 ranking nationally. Nova is particularly strong at forcing turnovers and controlling the defensive boards. The game should boost the Wildcat's rebounding status, though it does not appear to be a point of emphasis for the Quakers. On offense...

When Villanova has the ball...
				FTA
	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FGA
Wildcat O	56.9	17.7	39.8	39.0
Quaker D	48.7	19.3	32.8	47.2

This is probably the severest test Penn's defense will face outside of North Carolina. The Wildcats like to score inside the 3 point line. They favor 2s to 3s (68.2%), and convert at a 53.3% clip. They like to get to the line, as evidenced by their 36.6 FTRate (ranked #27 in D1 per Ken Pomeroy's Villanova Scouting Report page). The Quakers have not been especially aggressive on defense, forcing turnovers and rebounding are average to below average for D1. Villanova should have a very good day on the boards. Penn's FTRate is high, but that may be the result of late game change of possession fouling, a phenomina common to teams with losing records.

Finally...
Villanova's 3 point defense has been questioned over the past 3 seasons. The Quaker wings will test that area again. If they hit 3s early and often, the pace will most likely be higher and the pressure to counter quickly with 3s may be very (too?) tempting for the back court. Last season's game was a race which the Young 'Cats won despite allowing Penn to hit their 3s (45% of their FGAs were 3s) at a 40% clip. The Wildcats have an advantage on the inside however, as Cunningham and Pena should matchup well against Eggleston, Votel, Lewis and company. Fouls down low will be a key. If Pena and Cunningham can get the ball in the low post and convert without fouling (and defend the Quaker forwards without fouling...), the 'Cats should control the score and pace. If Dante and/or Antonio have to sit with fouls however, the staff will have some rotation decisions to make. Redding, though undersized for a #4 might be able to put in time in the frontcourt this game.

Coach Wright has favored a larger rotation so far, despite personnel shortages. So far senior Frank Tchuisi and walk-ons Jason Colenda and Russell Wooten have taken time to relieve the starters and other members of the regular rotation. The staff typically put 10 - 11 players on the court, with 7 - 8 getting double digit minutes. The Rhode Island game, possibly the best test for the squad so far this season, saw only 7 players get double digit minutes while only 9 saw the court.

According to pace calculations, this game will most likely be played for about 70 possessions (a good test for Villanova's ability to run...), with the 'Cats winning by a comfortable (15+ points) margin.

Roster Notes...
Villanova --
1. Casiem Drummond, junior center from Bloomfield Tech in NJ has decided to transfer. The Athletic Department posted an official announcement early Monday afternoon. Cas will not be available for the game. Best of luck to you Casiem.
2.Dwayne Anderson will be checked this week, and possibly cleared to practice, will not appear in this game.

Guest Contributor: Ray Floriani on The Legends Classic

By Ray Floriani

NEWARK - Pitt knocked off Texas Tech and Washington State to win the Legends Classic championship. A few press row observations from the final against Washington State at the Prudential Center. Pick your poison. Pitt has the athleticism to get out on the break and they have enough muscle to wear you down in a half court battle. The Cougars of the Pac 10 prefer the latter. Coach Tony Bennett prefers a half court game. Pitt obliged and beat them at it. And the Panthers did it with outstanding defense and consistency. A look at the two halves.

Half : 26-23 Pitt

	Efficiency
Pittsburgh	93
Washington St.	82
(28 possessions)

Game : 57-43 Pitt.

	Efficiency
Pittsburgh	97
Washinton St.	73
(59 possessions)

Washington State had 15 turnovers. As Bennett noted in the style they play that is huge. The State TO rate was a whopping and poor 31 %. In addition those turnovers led to 17 Panther points. On the other end, Pitt valued the basketball with a 14% TO rate.

To little surprise, the Panthers owned the offensive rebound percentage category with a 32 to 21 % edge.

Washington State had a 42 to 32% advantage in effective field goal percentage. Those aforementioned turnovers though, were crucial. The Cougars had 17 field goals but 6 were from beyond the arc. From two point range , Washington State shot 11 of 30 for 37%. Another testimony to Pitt’s inside strength with the likes of Tyrell Biggs (8 points 3 rebounds) and DeJuan Blair (7 points and 10 boards). Sam Young, the tournament MVP with a game high 15 points and 8 rebounds has the ability and did do damage in the paint and on the perimeter.

"We battled the first half and then didn’t score. They wear you down physically like UCLA. We were thoroughly outplayed the second half." -- Washington State Coach Tony Bennett.

Stat that jumped off the page...From Texas Tech’s 77-73 consolation win over Mississippi State. The Bulldogs rejected 9 Tech shots. Texas Tech attempted 42 two pointers so the State block rate was an incredible 21%.