Collaborative Post: Bobby Gonzalez's Last Game

by Ray Floriani

NEWARK, NJ - We didn’t realize it at the time. But with the lopsided 87-69 loss to Texas tech in the first round of the NIT , came an end to Bobby Gonzalez’s coaching tenure at Seton Hall.

The factors and numbers from a 70 possession game at the Prudential Center:

			FTM
	ORtg	eFG%	FGA	OR%	TO%
Texas Tech	128	54	37	44	13
Seton Hall	97	39	10	39	10

The deciding factor was Texas Tech’s defense. Coach Pat Knight said when his club holds opponents to under 70 points they are tough to beat. A major component of under 70 is illustrated the better than average numbers in deficiency efficiency and (defensive) effective field goal percentage.

The offensive rebounding percentage, in Tech’s favor also displays the hustle and willingness to beat their opponents to loose balls all night. Entering the game the Red Raiders were on the negative side of OREB percentage with Big 12 opponents owning a 38-29 edge.

Arguably the biggest number looking back is 14:19. That was the time remaining in the half when Seton Hall’s Herb Pope punched (twice) Texas Tech’s Darko Cohadarevic in the groin and was ejected. Without Pope, Gonzalez was left without a significant presence to clog the lane and score. Jeff Robinson gave a game leading 23 points 12 boards. John Garcia contributed 7 points 10 rebounds. But Jeremy Hazell, slowed by a bad back, scored 6 points and was 0-4 from three. With Pope gone and no one consistently helping Robinson carry the load, the Hall was doomed and faced double digit deficits virtually all night.

The Pope ejection had further implications as many feel it was the last straw that ultimately sent Gonzalez packing the next day. ESPN2 replayed the incident several times and that is something you do not want a national audience , many who do not know your school that well, to see.

Gonzalez ended his four years in South Orange with a 68-59 overall record. He was 27-43 in Big East play and last night picked up his seventh technical foul on the season. But it was to be his last at Seton Hall.

Tech put five players, led by guard John Roberson with 22 points, in double figures. Raiders improve to 18-15 while the Hall ends up at 19-13.

“I’m happy for my kids. They have been through a lot and had a tough stretch with some close losses. In some ways we are similar to Seton Hall as we both try to stay competitive in a tough conference.” - Texas Tech coach Pat Knight

greyCat's Comments
The game was poorly attended by Seton Hall fans, 4,000 possibly, but no more than 5,000 fans total in the arena. Many were angry students. Like every other collegiate venue, the students heckled and booed the Texas Tech players as they came out for their warmups. But they saved their most vitriolic heckling for Coach Gonzalez when he came out in the minutes before tipoff. The crowd quieted at topoff and the team played with energy, until Pope ws ejected. The life seemed to go out of the Pirate team. Several observers along Press Row commented repeatedly throughout the game at how the Pirates lacked energy and speed. Shots were short or offline. Jeremy Hazell's line, 6 points on 3-10 (0-4, 3-6) and 0-0 shooting, coupled with Pope's ejection, doomed the Pirate cause.

Notes & Observations
1. Seton Hall's second half shot efficiency was within 1.1% of their first half efficiency (39.2 vs 38.1), most likely a good hint of how the team would score without both Hazell and Pope. Jeff Robinson aside, the balance of the squad had tremendous difficulty converting shots to points.
2. The Pirates' problems, shooting aside, was over on the defensive side. The Pirates, hardly a defensive juggernaut this season, had a subpar performance at the worst possible time. If the observers along Press Row saw lack of energy in the lane and tentative jumpers, their defense, specifically getting after defensive rebounds, putting up a hand on Red Raider shooters, shot blocking and steals, were all well below their season numbers.
3. Jeff Robinson is the sliver lining from this game. He, Jordan Theodore, Jamal Jackson, Keon Lawrence and Herb Pope(?...) will be the nucleus around whom Coach Gonzalez's successor will have to rebuild.

	Min%	Shot%	eFG%	PPWS
Jeff Robinson	92.5	26.0	55.3	1.13
Jordan Theodore	75.0	32.1	35.6	0.67
Jamal Jackson	25.0	40.5	37.5	0.75

Jeff Robinson stepped up offensively, with a number of impressive lane drives and finishes around the basket. His 24% defensive rebounding rate (I realize this is too small a sample for generalizations...) was particlarly impressive given Garcia's graduation.

I was doing a live blog for the folks over at Rush the Court and negotiating a number of technical problems connecting to the WIFI at the Rock (Windows 7 and certain WIFI systems "aren't on speaking terms it seems"). I want to give a grateful thanks to the Seton Hall guys who took a shot at it, and the Physical Plant fellow who ran a wire out to Press Row for me. A terrific save credited to you guys. He was kind enough to check with me several times during the game to make sure the connection was (still) good. Thanks very much guys. Sorry it could not have been a better night for the Hall.

NIT Logo

Following Up...
The course of the game and the events immediately following have overrun what, despite the drama, has been the best season for Seton Hall basketball since Louis Orr's tenure. Hopefully the next coach will be able to build on the good things Coach Gonzalez accomplished. Best of Luck to the Red Raiders in their next round game. And best of all possible futures to the Pirates of Seton Hall.

Preview 2009-10 -- Seton Hall Pirates

Too Busy for the Details?
A veteran center and point guard? Check (ok, the center has tender knees).
A hungry gunner at the off guard? Check.
An aggressive scorer & rebounder at #4? Check
An active and quick #3? Check
Depth at most positions? Check!
For the 1st time since taking the reins at the South Orange school Head Coach Bobby Gonzalez has a team with just about everything he feels he needs to put together a great season. In addition to depth at the guard position (something he has had nearly every season to date), the 4th year coach has a Big East-level front court...with depth too. An injury to any of his starters would be devastating, but the Pirate bench is good enough to cover minutes during a game. Why doesn't every analyst have Seton Hall in the top 4? Most likely because no one is sure how well this collection of players will function as a team. Making the jump from perennial 4th quartile scrapper to 1st quartile power house is very tough, especially in one season. But the Pirates are knocking on the door, having logged back-to-back 17-15 seasons, they are stocked and ready to move up. But how far? Prognosis -- A 3rd quartile finish.

3 Years At a Glance
Coach Gonzalez brings back most of the squad that finished at 17-15 2 seasons running, but more importantly held steady at 7-11 in a much tougher conference last season. And to that veteran squad the coach will add a talent upgrade at two or so positions.

	Returning...
	2010	2009	2008
%Min	75.8	51.9	59.0
%Pts	84.0	51.7	62.9
%FGM	83.9	51.1	61.1
%3FGM	83.6	45.0	78.1
%OReb	73.5	58.5	50.5
%DReb	73.5	50.1	50.0
%TReb	73.5	53.0	50.2

Seton Hall's improvement last season was on the defensive side of the ball. Their dramatic improvement on conference shot defense more than negated their modest slide in defensive rebounding and keeping their opponents off the free throw line.

	According to Pomeroy...
	2008-09		2007-08		2006-07
	#	Rank	#	Rank	#	Rank
Overall ORtg	110.5	51	110.2	63	109.3	80
Overall DRtg	98.2	116	101.0	154	97.6	106
Big East ORtg	103.1	10	103.3	10	98.4	10
Big East DRtg	107.7	12	109.0	15	106.7	15
Four Factors -- Overall
All Off. eFG%	48.8	177	48.0	245	46.8	274
All Off. TOv%	17.2	18	16.8	12	16.5	8
All Off. OReb%	31.9	209	33.5	140	31.8	228
All Off. FTA/FGA	33.4	247	36.7	165	33.2	249
All Def. eFG%	47.7	104	51.1	225	51.7	240
All Def. TOv%	20.8	135	21.1	160	23.7	41
All Def. OReb%	40.2	338	37.8	325	36.4	296
All Def. FTA/FGA	44.3	308	39.3	224	45.4	301
Four Factors -- Big East
BE Off. eFG%	48.7	11	48.0	11	45.8	13
BE Off. TOv%	16.2	3	17.0	3	16.1	1
BE Off. OReb%	29.5	15	30.8	14	28.2	15
BE Off. FTA/FGA	31.2	8	38.4	5	30.0	15
BE Def. eFG%	48.0	4	51.6	14	53.1	15
BE Def. TOv%	19.9	6	20.2	6	21.2	3
BE Def. OReb%	43.5	16	38.8	15	36.4	15
BE Def. FTA/FGA	43.5	16	41.1	13	45.8	15
Miscellanious
All Gms Cons	21.0	209	17.4	57	23.6	277
All Gms Luck	-.035	241	+.027	83	-.108	329

Seton Hall's defense has been at or very near the bottom of the Big East 3 years running. The problem is clear (refer to chart above) -- the Pirates do not get enough of the defensive rebounds (the DI average is 32.9; the Big East average is 34.5 -- it's a tough conference for rebounders) and foul too often (the DI average is 36.8; the Big East average is 33.6). Both suggest a scrambling, undersized defense that can get in front of the shooter (the Hall's defensive eFG%, 48.0, is good), but either foul, or if the shot misses, allow the opponent to grab the loose ball (and try again). Physical defense that disrupts without fouling (and get rebounds...) would move the Pirates up in the standings. Converting FGAs more efficiently will definitely power a upward move in the Big East standings. The lack of offfensive rebounding, like their defensive rebounding, suggests an undersized squad that has been unsuccessful at converting misses into second chance opportunities. A bigger and more athletic front line could help quite a bit.

	For the Record...
	2008-09			2007-08			2006-07
	W	L	Pct.	W	L	Pct.	W	L	Pct.
Overall	17	15	0.531	17	15	0.531	13	16	0.448
Big East	7	11	0.389	7	11	0.389	4	12	0.250
Post Season?	BET/Rnd 1			BET/Rnd 1			No

As Coach Gonzalaz observed in an interview given over the summer, after a rough sub .500 start (13-16), the Hall climbed to 17-15 and has been "stuck" there for several years. Stalling a 7-11 in Big East play could be the key for SHU. Get to the .500 point in the conference (9-9), and the Pirates could into the Big East Tournament with a chance to get 20 wins.

The Pirate's Nucleus
Coach Bobby Gonzalez brings back all of his significant 2009 team members except Master Thief, 5-11 Paul Gause. The core of the Pirate squad is experienced and pretty good, but they have been too short and too few. This season could be different.

On Offense
Player	Min%	ORtg	Poss%	Shot%	eFG%	PPWS	OR%	FTR%
Hazell	89.7	109.6	28.0	31.6	52.3	1.12	3.8	37.1
Harvey	83.9	101.9	22.9	19.9	45.4	1.03	3.4	41.0
Mitchell	83.7	98.9	23.0	25.0	45.7	0.98	7.5	22.9
Garcia	62.0	109.8	15.0	13.7	60.6	1.17	10.1	33.9
Theodore	55.4	93.4	17.2	15.3	44.2	0.99	2.5	33.9

On Defense
Player	Min%	DR%	Ast%	TO%	Stl%	Blk%
Jeremy Hazell	89.7	7.8	5.5	12.1	0.1	2.8
Eugene Harvey	83.9	6.9	27.5	21.1	0.3	2.5
Robert Mitchell	83.7	16.8	9.2	15.6	2.3	2.0
John Garcia	62.0	16.5	6.3	18.9	6.1	0.9
Jordan Theodore	55.4	5.4	15.9	24.1	0.1	2.4

Garcia and Stix are good, but not great defensive rebounders. Mitchell may be more valuable as a #3, but has been asked to cover power forwards, usually giving them 20 pounds and an inch or two on the inside. The Pirates could benefit with from more rebounding, and it will not, judging from Hazell, Harvey and Theordore, come from the back court. The tallest player on the squad has the lowest block rate. While Garcia, a 5th year senior is scarred from multiple injuries and surgeries, it should nevertheless speak volumes on what is not happening on defense.


Significant Additions
Coach Gonzalez will have two things he has never had in South Orange -- a physical #4 in New Mexico State transfer Herb Pope, and (experienced...) depth, not only for his front court, but his back court as well. In the front court Memphis transfer Jeff Robinson, a well regarded #3/#4 who played HS ball at St. Patrick's in Elizabeth, NJ, red shirt freshman Melvyn Oliver, a 6-11, 340 lb (Coach Gonzalaz believes Oliver may be lighter, after working out in California this summer) back up #5 and true freshman Ferrakohn Hall, a 6-7 #3. The 2009 rotation included 3 walk on players, not a good prospect for winning late in the game. Missouri transfer Keon Lawrence will join senior Eugene Harvey, junior All Big East Third Team Jeremy Hazell and sophomore Jordan Theodore in the Pirate back court.


Explode If...
1. John Garcia can stay healthy and active for his last season. Garcia is a good offensive rebounder, and an above average defensive rebounder. The Hall will need 2 (or preferably more) good rebounders for the defensive boards (Herb Pope fits the bill at both ends of the floor), but Garcia would be starting point.
2. Herb Pope will become more efficient offensively. Pope took a lot of possessions (and shots) for New Mexico. Passable (for a 1st semester freshman) accuracy from inside the arc was sabotaged by abysmal shooting from beyond the arc, and unusually high turnover rate. He needs to become more accurate with his shot and careful with the ball.
3. The back court can work together. Coach Gonzalez has 3 players (2 at the point) who are used to starting and (for 2 of them anyway) carrying the offense. There are enough minutes to distribute. But only one basketball.

Implode If...
1. See #3 above. A lineup of Lawrence, Hazell, Mitchell, Pope and Garcia would have, if each player's last full season is a guide, taken 114% of the possessions and 118.3% of the shots. See the problem? If those 5 start, the percentage of possessions and shots will equal 100%, and that 100% will be distributed somehow among the 5. Will it be the "most efficient" distribution? The "most proficient" scoring distribution?
2. In assembling this squad Coach Gonzalez has decided to rely on JUCOs and DI transfers, ex-pat Northeasterners who left the region for college and have had second thoughts. It is a high-risk, high-reward strategy, because in several cases their clothes and dorm furniture are not the only baggage they bring to Seton Hall. Getting his collection of players to subordinate their individual agendas for the team may be more difficult than he anticipated. That Pope, Lawrence and Robinson have managed to avoid trouble and get to class so far is a good sign.
3. While not the "coach most likely to draw a technical" in the Big East last season, Coach Gonzalez has a volatile personality and has been known to lose his temper, sometimes in public and at occasionally inconvenient times.

Crucial Run/Bellweather Games
An out of conference schedule so light that it leaves Pirate fans grumbling, Seton Hall will play in no invitational tournaments and draw opponents largely out of mid-low major conferences in the Northeast and Middle Atlantic regions. The Hall will play teams out of the American East (1), the A10 (2 -- Temple and UMass), the Big South (1), the MAAC (1), the Ivy (1), the NEC (2), Patriot (1) to go with an independent (NJIT). The marquee game, against Virginia Tech of the ACC, will be played on a neutral court. With post season aspirations, the Hall will practically have run the table in the November to January schedule. Of the opponents, VaTech should be the most challenging, hardly an automatic win.

In the conference look for the Hall to make a statement early. They host West Virginia and Syracuse to open the season. Splitting those games (or taking both...) would show the squad is ready to make a move. Syracuse in particular will be inexperienced, so taking them on the road early would bolster Pirate confidence. Seton Hall faces Virginia Tech in Mexico to ring in the New Year, and stays on the road to take on Connecticut before returning home to face the Cincinnati Bearcats. Cincinnati will also challenge to move into the conference's upper division, so the 1/9/10) face off could well factor into a tie breaker later in the season. Going 3-2 through this stretch (2-2 in conference) would put the Pirates on track for a #8 - #10 place finish (should they hold up through the end of the season). The six games that follow kick off with a quick run down to Washington to face Georgetown (1/14/10), followed by a two game homestand (Louisville 1/21/10; Pitt 1/24/10) and capped by an especially difficult three game road run (USF 1/29/10; Villanova 2/2/10; Pitt 2/6/10). A 3-3 record would confirm the Pirates are ready to move up, as they should sweep their last four home games, and take two of their last four road games.

Rising Seniors -- Ten Nine to Watch

Last Impressions?
Luke Harangody won't make this list. Neither will Lazar Hayward nor Scottie Reynolds. They are names already, having made their marks during their freshmen or sophomore seasons. Every season a Hilton Armstrong, or a Rob Kurz, a Jon Wallace or a Dante Cunningham lands in the national press (and picks up a post season Big East award or two) seemingly out of nowhere. Invisible to all but their team's fans, these seniors tend to start somewhere back in the pack, but unlike their classmates, they improve every season. By Pomeroy's classification system they may start as "Role" or "Limited Role" player, and grow into a "Major" or "Go-to Guy" player over the course of their four years. Pomeroy discusses growth "probabilities" in "Putting Individual Efficiency into Perspective" over at The Basketball Prospectus back in 2007. One thing about these players is clear -- they tend to push at the upper limit of their growth curve each season. A few things are clear about the Hilton Armstrongs and Dante Cunninghams -- they are drawing a good share of the minutes at their position going into their senior seasons and they are drawing somewhere between 18% - 20% of the possessions when they are on the floor...their teammates know who they are and can find them on the floor...and trust them.

			On Offense...
Player	Team	%Min	ORtg	%Poss	%Shots	eFG%	PPWS	OR%	FTR%
Dixon	Pitt	61.5	112.2	17.2	19.2	50.2	1.05	2.5	27.2
Curry	PC	79.2	111.9	18.4	18.7	50.8	1.12	1.2	32.6
Onuaku	Cuse	64.8	107.5	18.2	18.1	66.7	1.21	12.6	46.4
Rautins	Cuse	67.5	105.6	18.6	21.6	53.3	1.10	1.5	13.6
Walker	DPU	86.1	104.8	21.4	26.2	49.8	1.03	2.4	18.2
Redding	Nova	71.9	104.5	15.8	13.8	48.8	1.06	6.3	38.2
Robinson	Conn	47.2	104.2	18.7	19.4	51.3	1.07	9.4	32.8
Harvey	SHU	83.9	101.9	22.9	19.9	45.4	1.03	3.4	41.0
Mitchell	SHU	83.7	98.9	23.0	25.0	45.7	0.98	7.5	22.9

Jermaine Dixon, a JUCO out of Tallahassee JC in Florida, will spend his second (and last) at Pitt as a wing, distinguished as the lone returning starter. Dixon was shy about contact, an unPitt-like characteristic, taking about 42% of his FGAs from beyond the arc and hitting at a < 30% rate. He will draw more attention this season, but will no doubt improve his accuracy as well. If he can step in and take some of the production left by the exits of Same Young, Levance Fields and DaJuan Blair, he will get noticed. Sharaud Curry, Arinze Onuaku, Stanley Robinson and Andy Rautins, like Dixon, face similar circumstances, they have started (and will start next season) for teams depleted by graduation and NBA dreams. Rautins split time on the wing with Harris and Devendorf (both departed). Alongside a well regarded transfer from Iowa State, Wesley Johnson, Rautins will have a few more opportunities to contribute, both as a scoring option (expanding his reportoire of shots) and as a distributor. The De Paul staff encouraged Will Walker to take a larger share of the offense at the end of last season. With off guard Dar Tucker off to Europe(?), the immediate responsibility for outside scoring will fall to Walker, at least in the near term. Whether he can keep it will depend on whether he can improve on his 36.8% conversion rate.

			On Defense...
Player	School	%Min	DR%	Ast%	TO%	%Blk	%Stl
Jermaine Dixon	Pitt	61.5	9.2	13.7	14.0	3.0	3.4
Sharaud Curry	PC	79.2	5.4	23.4	19.4	0.0	1.8
Arinze Onuaku	Cuse	64.8	16.6	4.3	17.8	5.3	1.0
Andy Rautins	Cuse	67.5	10.5	18.0	20.8	0.6	2.8
Will Walker	DPU	86.1	6.0	10.0	10.8	0.5	2.9
Reggie Redding	Nova	71.9	13.0	18.8	23.6	2.2	2.2
Stanley Robinson	UConn	47.2	15.4	8.8	19.6	3.9	1.4
Eugene Harvey	SHU	83.9	6.9	27.5	21.1	0.3	2.5
Robert Mitchell	SHU	83.7	16.8	9.2	15.6	2.3	2.0

The Pirates expect their new faces (transfers from Missouri, Memphis and New Mexico State) will give the squad an upgrade in talent. On that theory both Eugene Harvey and Robert Mitchell should get better. For Mitchell, a transfer himself, playing his 2nd season in the Big East, the expectations for improvement should be high. Pending resolution of a legal matter,Villanova's Reggie Redding, a versatile guard-forward, has at one time or another, played anywhere from the #1 to the #4. Versatility -- and defense -- has been the key for Redding, who started a handful of games his freshman season when Mike Nardi was hobbled. Though his shot lacked accuracy, Redding got the nod over older, more polished scorers. His long range shooting stills (30.3%) still need work, but if he can improve that feature of his game he will contribute even more to the team his last season.

And Then There's...
Ok, I know I said I would not mention Lazar Hayward (among others), but the rising junior will be the 1st and 2nd option on offense until transfer Dwight Buycks gets up to speed. Hayward was one of the go-to guys on the World University Games that won the bronze medal in Belgrade in July. He will get a lot of looks next season.

And a thank you to Ken Pomeroy for use of the stats from his Scout Pages.

Preview -- Seton Hall

The Wildcats continue their "road trip" with a visit to The Rock, (off campus) home of the Seton Hall Pirates on Tuesday evening. The Pirates and Wildcats have a series history that predates their Big East Conference affiliation. In the winter of 1921 the Wildcats and Pirates began a series that has over the years logged 97 matches (Villanova leads 60-37), about half of which were played between 1921 and 1980. The series has ebbed and flowed over time, the Wildcats currently ride a six game winning streak, which they put on the line at the Rock...

Common Opponents, Good Wins, Bad Losses...
The 'Cats and Pirates both played the Hawks of Monmouth University this season:

	Nova		Hall
Opponent	W/L	Diff.	W/L	Diff.
Monmouth U	W (H)	+23	W (H)	+23

Good wins include Southern Cal (PAC-10, 10-4, RPI #91) and Virginia Tech (ACC, 9-5, RPI #58). Counted among the "good" losses, a 14 point road loss to Memphis (CUSA, 10-3, RPI #22). Two bad losses are counted in the Pirates' 8-5 record, a 2 point home loss to UIPUI (Summit, 6-5, RPI #240) and a 6 point road loss to James Madison (CAA, 8-6, RPI #201)...

Lineups, Rotations...
...Functioning with a roster that contains a total of 7 scholarship players, coach Gonzalez has spread the playing time around to include a few walk-on players. He has been consistent in that he has started Eugene Harvey (Jr, 6-0, 165lbs), Paul Gause (Sr, 5-11, 188lbs) and Jeremy Hazell (So, 6-5, 185lbs) in the back court/wing. Those three have logged between 78.4% (Paul Gause) of the available minutes and 85.5% (Jeremy Hazell) of the minutes, having started virtually all of Seton Hall's games this season. A suspension of Robert "Stix" Mitchell (Jr, 6-6, 180lbs) early in the season, along with some medical issues surrounding John Garcia (Jr 6-9, 265lbs) set Gonzalez to a bit of early season experimentation. Lately he has settled on Mitchell in the front court (at the #4), with either Garcia or Mike Davis (So 6-11, 255lbs) at the #5. The starters have typicall logged between 75% and 82% of the playing time (with a few exceptions). Garcia has gotten about 47% of the available PT, while Davis has taken about 37% of that time.

Beyond the starting five, Coach Gonzalez will call on freshman guard Jordan Theodore (6-0, 170lbs) and sophomore Brandon Walters (6-9, 225lbs). Theodore has gotten 57% of the PT, while Walters has taken about 30% of the PT. After those two Coach Gonzalez will look to the walk-ons, Matt Cajuste (So, 6-7, 230lbs), Peter Peregrin (Jr, 6-0, 165lbs) and Darnell Gatling (So 5-9, 150lbs) to finish off the half or close out the game.

Villanova's staff has consistently started Cunningham and Pena in the front court, and Scottie Reynolds and Corey Stokes in the back court/wing. The fifth starting spot has gone (at various times) to Corey Fisher (through November) and Dwayne Anderson (through most of December). Junior Reggie Redding started the Marquette game, though both Fisher and Anderson logged 33 and 22 minutes respectively, to Redding's 24. Senior Shane Clark has also gotten about 41% of the available minutes so far. Those 8 have appeared in virtually every game (health allowing) this season, and can be expected to see time against the Pirates. The deeper parts of the bench, which includes senior front court player Frank Tchuisi and walk-ons Jason Colenda and Russell Wooten, can expect to see time only if things are going extremely well...or extremely badly.

By the Numbers, Offense & Defense...
Seton Hall prefers a 71.8 possessions-per-game pace (ranked at #45, according to SHU Scout Page). They run a better-than-average offense (105.8 adjusted, ranked #86 -- that is about 1.06 points per possession) and a very average defense (100.1 adjusted, ranked #169 -- that is about 1.00 point per possession). Taking (Oliver's) four factors into account:

When Seton Hall has the ball...
				FTA
	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FGA
Pirate O	48.0	18.6	33.7	29.9
Wildcat D	45.0	23.1	28.1	36.8

SHU is better shooting 2s than 3s. This could be good news for the Wildcats, given their last few outings. The Hall takes good care of the ball while Nova forces turnovers, pace aside, this, and rebounding on the defensive should be pretty good barometers on the Hall's offensive efficiency. The Pirates don't get to the line much, while Villanova has had a few 40+ foul games (both teams...) this season. Seton Hall does not rely much on the line, and that should work to Villanova's favor. SHU's relatively average shooting efficiency (they are ranked #194, just below average) can be attributed to 3 point shooting. They are ranked #304 in EFGM% (29.4%), and Jeremy Hazell aside (he takes about 45% of their 3FGAs...) the team shoots a very mediocre 25.2%. So the Pirates will look to score inside, and look for Hazell 1st (inside or outside), followed by Stix Mitchell and then Harvey (the latter two on the inside). Garcia and Davis are the most efficient scorers on the team (not to mention the best rebounders), but neither gets much more than "role player" touches in the SHU offense (mostly putbacks?).

If the 'Cats are on offense, this is what to expect...

When Villanova has the ball...
				FTA
	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FGA
Wildcat O	51.0	17.8	36.5	31.4
Pirate D	47.9	22.5	35.8	46.6

The Wildcats score fairly efficiently (the best eFG% they have had in several seasons), a good sign given the Hall's fairly average (they are ranked #130 per Pomeroy's Scout Page) shot defense. Consistent with a pair of guard-oriented teams, SHU forces turnovers and Nova values the ball. Should be interesting, especially if possessions are relatively low (and the shooting is off). Nova likes to go inside (the 'Cats take 67.1% of their shots inside the arc) for their points. They take contact, and the Hall appears to foul a bit, so the Wildcats may get to the line consistently this game. That is good news for Villanova, as they typically look for about a quarter of their scoring to come from FTMs. Of course this is a road game. Villanova will most likely look for Cunningham on the inside and Reynolds on the outside (or penetrating) 1st. With second/third options going to Corey Fisher (who has had two very good games coming in...) and Corey Stokes. Clark, Anderson and Pena will chip in points along the way, but none has had a breakout night this season.

Want to Beat the Hall? Then...
1. Defend the shot. Shooting efficiency on both ends of the floor appear to be the strongest marker for victory (and defeat). When SHU's eFG% is held to < 47.0 the Pirates go 3-3. And when their opponents shot (eFG%) > 50.0, the Hall went 2-3. If Villanova shoots to their season average, and holds the Hall to (Nova's defensive) eFG%, the 'Cats should win.
2. Get (quite a) few second chance opportunities. When SHU's opponents rebounded >40.0% of their misses, the Pirates went 1-3. Nova has hit that number several times this season (Navy, Penn, Rhody, Towson...), they have yet to do it against a frontcourt with players as big as Garcia and Davis though.

Finally...
...The Hall is thin, and likes to run, that is not a good combination if the players are not especially athletic. I have suggested several times that I would rather see the 'Cats draw the Pirates late in the season, after they have been worn down a bit. They don't have that luxury this season, so they will have to neutralize Garcia and Davis, keep Pena on the floor (and rebounding) alongside Cunningham.

According to Ken Pomeroy's calculations, this game should go for about 69 possessions (a bit above the D1 average), with the Wildcats taking a 7 point decision, 73-66. Given that Villanova has tended to underperform on the road this season, I would take that win in a heartbeat.