The City Series
The Wildcats and Quakers face off in the opening game of the 59th renewal of Philadelphia's famed Big 5 series, at the Pavilion on Villanova's campus. The series, held annually since 1955, pits (a period during the 1990s excepted) Philadelphia's four city colleges (La Salle, Penn, St. Joseph's and Temple) and Villanova in a round robin series of games that, in the period before conferences, often reached a climax as each season ended. Today, Villanova typically plays most, if not all, of their Big 5 slate before they launch into the Big East regular season. This season is unusual in that Villanova will play 2 of their 4 rivals even before the end of November. While the Quakers have had a few off seasons under head coach Glen Miller (his 3 year record record at Penn is a disappointing average 45-45). After a 1st place finish (22-9) and an NCAA bid in his rookie season, the Quakers slumped to a 23-36 record. This season is projected as the Quaker's bounce back, as they expect to be among the top teams in the mid-major Ivy League, the oldest conference in the Northeast. While one might think of this as just another mid-major tune-up for the Wildcats, consider that the Wildcats have, to this point in the 2001-2010 decade, logged 29 Big 5 wins. That total matches Penn's best win total (from 1971-1980, 29-11, 0.725) which in turn, is the best decade-long record (wins, winning percentage) of any program in Big 5 competition. Should the Wildcats beat the Quakers, they will have notched at least 30 wins in the decade, and be guaranteed a winning percentage no worse than 0.750. Villanova has won the City Series 5 times since 2004, sharing the title twice during that run (2005 & 2008, both times with Temple). Villanova leads their series with Penn, 39-17, and puts a six game winning streak versus Penn on the line...
What Others Say...
...Blue Ribbon projects the the Quakers to finish 3rd in the Ivy League -- an improvement over last season's #7 finish (in the 8 team Ivy League) -- and gives the backcourt a B, the frontcourt a C and the bench/depth a C. Rush the Court writer Dave Zeitlin also projected Penn as the 3rd place team in his Ivy League preview, citing the return of Andreas Schreiber and Darren Smith as reasons to look for Coach Miller to have a solid starting line up. But Harrison Gaines' departure will have the Quakers looking for scoring from the remaining members of the rotation.
So Far...
Penn lost to an improving Penn State (Big Ten, 1-0, RPI #47 -- 2009) team Friday evening, 70-55 in State Park. The 'Cats enter this game sporting a 1-0 record - their opening game effort against Fairleigh Dickinson providing fans with a rusty first half, but a shooting exhibition in the second half that yielded a 23 point victory. .
Penn By the Numbers...
Over the past 5 years the Quakers have declined steadily from #59 (under Fran Dunphy) to #252 (last season -- an improvement actually, over their 260 rank in 2008) in the RPI. Penn ran a higher than average pace last season (68.2 possessions, adjusted, via Ken Pomeroy's Penn Scout Page which ranked the Quakers #93 out of approx. 336 - the D1 pace last season was 66.5). Penn's field goal efficiency (eFG) last season was a disappointing 47.1 (#243). Combined with their relatively high turnover rate (20.7, #202) and low offensive rebounding percentage (29.3, #276) Penn registered one of the least efficient offenses in D1 last season (according to Ken Pomeroy). The Quakers wanted to shoot 3s, taking nearly 35% of their FGAs behind the line last season, but their conversion rate (31.5%, #282) thwarted their efforts. If the PSU game is a guide, they intend to pursue this strategy against their opponents again this season. But given they converted about 21% of their attempts, the strategy may yield no better results this season. Penn's defense was slightly better in 2009, ranked #231 (about 40 spots higher than their offense) out of approximately 336 D1 teams. Ironically 3 point shot defense was their worst defensive feature. This could be a very big night for Corey Stokes and Taylor King.
Frontcourt vs frontcourt...
Penn has a stable of nine tweeners, all between 6-6 and 6-9 available for minutes. Senior 6-9 #4/#5 Andreas Schreiber (#13), a red shirt last season will most likely start next to 6-8 junior Jack Eggleston (#24, 30.2 mpg, 9.6 ppg, 5.9 rpg in 2009). Coach Miller started those two against Penn State, and Eggleston went on a tear, scoring 13 points on 5-6 shooting in 33 minutes. 6-7 junior Conor Turley (#, 6.9 mpg, 1.0 ppg, 1.6 rpg) logged 22 minutes scoring 8 points (6 of them at the free throw line) and grabbing 2 rebounds. 6-9 sophomore Mike Howlett (#23, 6.4 mpg, 1.4 ppg, 0.7 rpg -- 2009) battled injuries through much of his freshman season, logged 16 minutes and scored 4 points against Penn State.
Mouphtaou Yarou and Antonio Pena started in the front court versus Fairleigh Dickinson and there is no reason given their performance, to suggest they will not start again. I was a bit surprised to see Yarou start, as the staff almost always ease the freshmen into the rotation before allocating starts. The last freshman to start this early in his freshman season was Scottie Reynolds. After Yarou and Pena, the staff will look to give time to Taylor King, who joined with Corey Stokes to drop a stunning 7 of 8 3 point field goals on Kutztown in exhibition, and followed that with a 7 rebound 9 point performance against the Knights Friday. Behind King, expect to see the freshman, red shirt Maurice Sutton and true frosh Isaiah Armwood. The Villanova front court should give their Penn counterparts more than they can handle.
Backcourt vs backcourt...
Coach Miller will most likely start 6-1 Zach Rosen (#1, 31.1mpg, 8.1ppg, 4.9apg) at the point, paired with 6-4 Darren Smith (#5), a red shirt junior who has lost 2 seasons to a variety of injuries, at the #2. Given Coach Miller's up-tempo style, expect a third guard, 6-6 tweener Tyler Bernardini (#4, 29.4 mpg, 13.7 ppg, 4.0 rpg) to start on the wing. Bernardini was the Quakers' leading scorer last season, shooting from both the outside (39-122, 0.320) and inside (71-154, 0.461) last season. Bernardini accounted for 27.8% of the Quakers' shots when he was on the floor last season. And if his performance Friday at State College is an indicator, (4-8 in 17 minutes), he will continue to be the #1 option on offense this season. Two 6-6 juniors Rob Belcore (#30, 4.3 ppg, 1.8 rpg) and Dan Monckton (#2, 4.1 mpg, 0.3 ppg, 0.7 rpg), combined to take 33 minutes (27 to Belcore, 6 to Monckton) on the wing and back court. Beyond Belcore and Monckton, back court depth is very young, as Coach Miller has two freshmen, 5-9 Malcolm Washington (#11) out of Los Angeles and 6-3 Carson Sullivan (#20) out of Charlotte, NC available for minutes should the opportunity/need arise.
Coach Wright started Scottie Reynolds, and the Coreys, Fisher and Stokes, at the #2, #1 and #3 respectively. Reynolds logged an 8 point night versus the Knights, while Stokes shot out the lights with a 20 point performance on 6-12, 5-10 shooting. Fisher notched 13 points on a 4-9 (1-2) night. Depth will come from freshmen Maalik Wayns (6 points with 2 assists) and Dominic Cheek (8 points and 2 assists). Both freshmen saw 18 minutes against FDU -- expect them to see similar time against the Quakers.
Final Thoughts...
If the front court was tested in the FDU game, the back court and wing spots should face a good test in this contest. Coach Miller wants his Quakers to push the ball early and often. Poor field goal conversion rates undermined the up-tempo style as the team struggled to find open shots. If the 67 possession game versus Penn State was about "average" for last season, it was slow by the pace set in games played this opening weekend (possessions per team averages about 70 so far this season). Villanova would be happy to accommodate the brisker rate of play, using about 71 possessions versus FDU Friday night. Penn did not rebound well offensively in 2009, and the PSU game suggests this problem area may remain unaddressed.
Coach Wright employed a 10 man rotation against FDU. This appears to be the mode of operation through much of the OOC portion of the schedule. The question will be whether Armwood and Sutton will get join the other eight by logging double digit minutes. If Penn struggles with their shot in the Pavilion as they did in State College, both Sutton and Armwood will see action early.
Odds and Ends...
I will be doing a live, on site blog from the Pavilion Monday night during the game. If you have internet access, drop over to Rush the Court blog, say hello and participate.
The Wildcats and Quakers face off in the opening game of the 59th renewal of Philadelphia's famed Big 5 series, at the Pavilion on Villanova's campus. The series, held annually since 1955, pits (a period during the 1990s excepted) Philadelphia's four city colleges (La Salle, Penn, St. Joseph's and Temple) and Villanova in a round robin series of games that, in the period before conferences, often reached a climax as each season ended. Today, Villanova typically plays most, if not all, of their Big 5 slate before they launch into the Big East regular season. This season is unusual in that Villanova will play 2 of their 4 rivals even before the end of November. While the Quakers have had a few off seasons under head coach Glen Miller (his 3 year record record at Penn is a disappointing average 45-45). After a 1st place finish (22-9) and an NCAA bid in his rookie season, the Quakers slumped to a 23-36 record. This season is projected as the Quaker's bounce back, as they expect to be among the top teams in the mid-major Ivy League, the oldest conference in the Northeast. While one might think of this as just another mid-major tune-up for the Wildcats, consider that the Wildcats have, to this point in the 2001-2010 decade, logged 29 Big 5 wins. That total matches Penn's best win total (from 1971-1980, 29-11, 0.725) which in turn, is the best decade-long record (wins, winning percentage) of any program in Big 5 competition. Should the Wildcats beat the Quakers, they will have notched at least 30 wins in the decade, and be guaranteed a winning percentage no worse than 0.750. Villanova has won the City Series 5 times since 2004, sharing the title twice during that run (2005 & 2008, both times with Temple). Villanova leads their series with Penn, 39-17, and puts a six game winning streak versus Penn on the line...
What Others Say...
...Blue Ribbon projects the the Quakers to finish 3rd in the Ivy League -- an improvement over last season's #7 finish (in the 8 team Ivy League) -- and gives the backcourt a B, the frontcourt a C and the bench/depth a C. Rush the Court writer Dave Zeitlin also projected Penn as the 3rd place team in his Ivy League preview, citing the return of Andreas Schreiber and Darren Smith as reasons to look for Coach Miller to have a solid starting line up. But Harrison Gaines' departure will have the Quakers looking for scoring from the remaining members of the rotation.
So Far...
Penn lost to an improving Penn State (Big Ten, 1-0, RPI #47 -- 2009) team Friday evening, 70-55 in State Park. The 'Cats enter this game sporting a 1-0 record - their opening game effort against Fairleigh Dickinson providing fans with a rusty first half, but a shooting exhibition in the second half that yielded a 23 point victory. .
Penn By the Numbers...
Over the past 5 years the Quakers have declined steadily from #59 (under Fran Dunphy) to #252 (last season -- an improvement actually, over their 260 rank in 2008) in the RPI. Penn ran a higher than average pace last season (68.2 possessions, adjusted, via Ken Pomeroy's Penn Scout Page which ranked the Quakers #93 out of approx. 336 - the D1 pace last season was 66.5). Penn's field goal efficiency (eFG) last season was a disappointing 47.1 (#243). Combined with their relatively high turnover rate (20.7, #202) and low offensive rebounding percentage (29.3, #276) Penn registered one of the least efficient offenses in D1 last season (according to Ken Pomeroy). The Quakers wanted to shoot 3s, taking nearly 35% of their FGAs behind the line last season, but their conversion rate (31.5%, #282) thwarted their efforts. If the PSU game is a guide, they intend to pursue this strategy against their opponents again this season. But given they converted about 21% of their attempts, the strategy may yield no better results this season. Penn's defense was slightly better in 2009, ranked #231 (about 40 spots higher than their offense) out of approximately 336 D1 teams. Ironically 3 point shot defense was their worst defensive feature. This could be a very big night for Corey Stokes and Taylor King.
Frontcourt vs frontcourt...
Penn has a stable of nine tweeners, all between 6-6 and 6-9 available for minutes. Senior 6-9 #4/#5 Andreas Schreiber (#13), a red shirt last season will most likely start next to 6-8 junior Jack Eggleston (#24, 30.2 mpg, 9.6 ppg, 5.9 rpg in 2009). Coach Miller started those two against Penn State, and Eggleston went on a tear, scoring 13 points on 5-6 shooting in 33 minutes. 6-7 junior Conor Turley (#, 6.9 mpg, 1.0 ppg, 1.6 rpg) logged 22 minutes scoring 8 points (6 of them at the free throw line) and grabbing 2 rebounds. 6-9 sophomore Mike Howlett (#23, 6.4 mpg, 1.4 ppg, 0.7 rpg -- 2009) battled injuries through much of his freshman season, logged 16 minutes and scored 4 points against Penn State.
Mouphtaou Yarou and Antonio Pena started in the front court versus Fairleigh Dickinson and there is no reason given their performance, to suggest they will not start again. I was a bit surprised to see Yarou start, as the staff almost always ease the freshmen into the rotation before allocating starts. The last freshman to start this early in his freshman season was Scottie Reynolds. After Yarou and Pena, the staff will look to give time to Taylor King, who joined with Corey Stokes to drop a stunning 7 of 8 3 point field goals on Kutztown in exhibition, and followed that with a 7 rebound 9 point performance against the Knights Friday. Behind King, expect to see the freshman, red shirt Maurice Sutton and true frosh Isaiah Armwood. The Villanova front court should give their Penn counterparts more than they can handle.
Backcourt vs backcourt...
Coach Miller will most likely start 6-1 Zach Rosen (#1, 31.1mpg, 8.1ppg, 4.9apg) at the point, paired with 6-4 Darren Smith (#5), a red shirt junior who has lost 2 seasons to a variety of injuries, at the #2. Given Coach Miller's up-tempo style, expect a third guard, 6-6 tweener Tyler Bernardini (#4, 29.4 mpg, 13.7 ppg, 4.0 rpg) to start on the wing. Bernardini was the Quakers' leading scorer last season, shooting from both the outside (39-122, 0.320) and inside (71-154, 0.461) last season. Bernardini accounted for 27.8% of the Quakers' shots when he was on the floor last season. And if his performance Friday at State College is an indicator, (4-8 in 17 minutes), he will continue to be the #1 option on offense this season. Two 6-6 juniors Rob Belcore (#30, 4.3 ppg, 1.8 rpg) and Dan Monckton (#2, 4.1 mpg, 0.3 ppg, 0.7 rpg), combined to take 33 minutes (27 to Belcore, 6 to Monckton) on the wing and back court. Beyond Belcore and Monckton, back court depth is very young, as Coach Miller has two freshmen, 5-9 Malcolm Washington (#11) out of Los Angeles and 6-3 Carson Sullivan (#20) out of Charlotte, NC available for minutes should the opportunity/need arise.
Coach Wright started Scottie Reynolds, and the Coreys, Fisher and Stokes, at the #2, #1 and #3 respectively. Reynolds logged an 8 point night versus the Knights, while Stokes shot out the lights with a 20 point performance on 6-12, 5-10 shooting. Fisher notched 13 points on a 4-9 (1-2) night. Depth will come from freshmen Maalik Wayns (6 points with 2 assists) and Dominic Cheek (8 points and 2 assists). Both freshmen saw 18 minutes against FDU -- expect them to see similar time against the Quakers.
Final Thoughts...
If the front court was tested in the FDU game, the back court and wing spots should face a good test in this contest. Coach Miller wants his Quakers to push the ball early and often. Poor field goal conversion rates undermined the up-tempo style as the team struggled to find open shots. If the 67 possession game versus Penn State was about "average" for last season, it was slow by the pace set in games played this opening weekend (possessions per team averages about 70 so far this season). Villanova would be happy to accommodate the brisker rate of play, using about 71 possessions versus FDU Friday night. Penn did not rebound well offensively in 2009, and the PSU game suggests this problem area may remain unaddressed.
Coach Wright employed a 10 man rotation against FDU. This appears to be the mode of operation through much of the OOC portion of the schedule. The question will be whether Armwood and Sutton will get join the other eight by logging double digit minutes. If Penn struggles with their shot in the Pavilion as they did in State College, both Sutton and Armwood will see action early.
Odds and Ends...
I will be doing a live, on site blog from the Pavilion Monday night during the game. If you have internet access, drop over to Rush the Court blog, say hello and participate.
No comments:
Post a Comment