The Wildcats host the Cardinals of the University of Louisville at noon on Saturday. Villanova is 3-1 in Big East play versus Louisville, and 5-6 overall in the series that goes back to 1950. Prior to entering the Big East, Villanova and Louisville met more in post season play (). . ...
Common Opponents, Good Wins, Bad Losses...
...Increasingly rare, but true in this case, the 'Cats and Cards have not played a common opponent yet. Not even from the Big East.
Louisville's (10-3, RPI #36) good wins include Lamar (Southland, 5-4, RPI #73), Mississippi (SEC, 9-5, RPI #82), UAB (CUSA, 9-5, RPI #40) and (for their fans especially) Kentucky (SEC, 11-4, RPI #75). Louisville was projected (rightly or wrongly) as a Top 10 team this season, so virtually any loss may be considered "bad", but each of their three losses was to a team whose RPI is (currently) in the Top 100...
Lineups, Rotations...
...Louisville's front court was set on October 15 (start of fall practice) -- Coach Pitino has started freshman Samardo Samuels (6-8, 240lbs) at the #5, beside his veterans junior Earl Clark (6-9, 220lbs), often considered the #4, and senior Terrance Williams (6-6, 215lbs), variously identified as a wing (#3?), point forward, and sometimes a #2. Appropriate adjective aside, Williams has, to some degree, deferred to his front court mates, Samuels and Clark for offense. While he will take a bit more than 20% of the shots & possessions when he is on the court (and he logs over 80% of the minutes for his position, so expect to see him for 35 or so minutes), his assist rate (26.8, ranked #194, per Ken Pomeroy's Scout Report Page) suggests he will work to get Clark, Samuels (and the back court) involved in the offense. Coach Pitino will most likely call on the freshmen George Goode (6-8, 205lbs) and Jarod Swopshire (6-7, 215lbs) when he wants to rest his front court.
The back court starters have been considerably less predictable, as Coach Pitino has at various times dipped into a pool that includes, for the point, senior Andre McGee (5-10, 180lbs) and junior Edgar Sosa (6-1, 175lbs), and for the wing (#2?, #3?) junior Jerry Smith (6-1, 200lbs) and sophomore Preston Knowles (6-1, 170lbs). Lately (the past 2 games), Coach Pitino has settled on Sosa and Smith as his starters, though he sat both points (McGee and Sosa) and started both Knowles and Smith versus UNLV. Knowles, McGee, Smith and Sosa take between 40% (Knowles) and 52.9% (Smith) of the minutes so far. Next off the bench will most likely be transfer junior Reginald Delk (6-4, 175lbs).
Louisville typically run up to 12 players through their games, with 9 drawing double digit minutes. Over the past 3 - 4 games freshmen Terrence Jennings (#4/#5, 6-10, 225lbs) & Kyle Kuric (#2, 6-4, 175lbs), along with sophomore Lee Steiden (#3, 6-4, 185lbs) and senior Will Scott (#2/#3, 6-3, 185lbs) have logged a few minutes apiece. In close games (UNLV, Ky, Minnesota...), the rotation may remain deep (11-12), but only 7 or so will see more than 9 minutes of play.
Villanova will start Dante Cunningham and Antonio Pena in the front court, with Scottie Reynolds in the back court. The remaining starting spots will most likely go to two of Corey Fisher, Dwayne Anderson, Corey Stokes, Reggie Redding or Shane Clark. Redding and Anderson started most recently against Seton Hall; Redding and Stokes started against Marquette, and Anderson & Stokes started the last three OOC games. Clark has not started at all this season, but expect to see him for 20 or so minutes.
By the Numbers, Offense & Defense...
The two teams have very similar numbers on both offense and defense. The Cardinal's offensive and defensive ratings are 105.4 (adjusted, ranked #90) and 82.7 (adjusted, ranked #4) respectively. The Wildcat's offensive & defensive ratings are 109.2 (adjusted, ranked #56) and 89.3 (adjusted, ranked #23) respectively. Texas' defense aside, this is the highest rated squad the Wildcats have faced. And Kentucky's defense aside, the same can be said of Louisville's challenge. The Cardinals play for about 70+ possessions (the deeper rotation?), while Nova seems to prefer a more deliberate pace, about 65 possessions.
Villanova's shot defense (eFG%) has been rising slowly since the beginning of the Big East regular season (Marquette, Seton Hall), expect it to be challenged yet again by Louisville's outside shooters. The Cardinals have taken about 39% of their FGAs from beyond the arc -- look for Williams, McGee, Smith, Sosa and Knowles to fire away when the opportunity presents. Smith and Knowles are brutally efficient with their shot, though Smith appears to defer to others when he is playing. Knowles will fire away (about a 25% shot%), but needs someone to get him the ball after he finds his spot. Since 3 of 5 FGAs go inside however, expect Clark, Samuels and Williams to get a lot of touches (and FGAs). Of the three, Samuels is the most accurate, hitting at a 55% clip. In the battle of the boards, expect Pena, Anderson and Cunningham to be challenged by Samuels (a Top 100 OR% rebounder according to Ken Pomeroy) and Clark for Louisville's misses. Louisville takes pretty good care of the ball -- their TO% (18.9) ranks them #72 in D1. The problem appears to be in the Louisville back court, as both Sosa and McGee (and wing Jarod Swopshire) are the most likely to lose the ball. Knowles and Smith by contrast (mostly due to the catch-and-shoot style of offense) are least likely to turn it over. The "Four Factors" look at Villanova's offense versus Louisville's defense:
Note the matchups on shooting and shot defense. Nova's eFG% has declined since the Temple game, and this Louisville team is ranked among the elite (#20) for defense. They are especially tough on inside scoring, limiting opponents to a 42% FGM%. Lousiville likes to force turnovers (they are ranked #57, according to Ken Pomeroy's Scouting Report Page); look for Williams, Knowles, McGee and Smith to lead the way. Nova's best offensive rebounders, Pena, Anderson & Cunningham will be challenged by Williams and Clark. Samuels is good (above average), but not an elite defensive rebounder at this point. Villanova looks for points from the free throw line as a necessary part of their offensive production; Louisville does tend to the mean for fouls. If it comes down to free throws, Louisville might have a problem...
Want to Beat Louisville? Then...
Shooting remains the single most important feature for each team...
1. Effectively shut down Louisville's shooters. The Cardinals are 0-3 in games where their eFG% is 41.5 or lower. Villanova has held opponents to an eFG% of 41.5 or lower 5 times (they are 5-0 when they do).
2. The Wildcats have to make their shots. The 'Cats are 10-0 when they have an eFG% of 46.6 or above. When they shoot 46.5 or below they are 3-2. When Louisville holds their opponents to an eFG% of 44.6 or lower they are 8-1. If their opponents shoot (eFG%) 47.8 or higher, the Cards are 3-2.
3. Nova must control their defensive boards. The Wildcats are 9-0 when they hold opponents to less than the D1 average (about 33%). The 'Cats drop to 4-2 when their opponents grab >34.0 (higher than the D1 average).
Finally...
...The Cardinals look to Clark, Williams, Knowles and Samuels to provide a balanced (inside/outside) attack. Villanova looks to Cunningham on the inside and Reynolds, who ironically appears to be more efficient from the outside so far this season, for an uncomfortably large part of their offense. Someone (or a couple of someones...) must provide a third option on offense.
Pace and offensive efficiency calculations point to a game that will be played for about 68 possessions (Louisville friendly), with the Wildcats taking a 1 point game (63-62). This one is clearly within the home court advantage range. At 55% confidence, the game is close to a pick'em.
Common Opponents, Good Wins, Bad Losses...
...Increasingly rare, but true in this case, the 'Cats and Cards have not played a common opponent yet. Not even from the Big East.
Louisville's (10-3, RPI #36) good wins include Lamar (Southland, 5-4, RPI #73), Mississippi (SEC, 9-5, RPI #82), UAB (CUSA, 9-5, RPI #40) and (for their fans especially) Kentucky (SEC, 11-4, RPI #75). Louisville was projected (rightly or wrongly) as a Top 10 team this season, so virtually any loss may be considered "bad", but each of their three losses was to a team whose RPI is (currently) in the Top 100...
Lineups, Rotations...
...Louisville's front court was set on October 15 (start of fall practice) -- Coach Pitino has started freshman Samardo Samuels (6-8, 240lbs) at the #5, beside his veterans junior Earl Clark (6-9, 220lbs), often considered the #4, and senior Terrance Williams (6-6, 215lbs), variously identified as a wing (#3?), point forward, and sometimes a #2. Appropriate adjective aside, Williams has, to some degree, deferred to his front court mates, Samuels and Clark for offense. While he will take a bit more than 20% of the shots & possessions when he is on the court (and he logs over 80% of the minutes for his position, so expect to see him for 35 or so minutes), his assist rate (26.8, ranked #194, per Ken Pomeroy's Scout Report Page) suggests he will work to get Clark, Samuels (and the back court) involved in the offense. Coach Pitino will most likely call on the freshmen George Goode (6-8, 205lbs) and Jarod Swopshire (6-7, 215lbs) when he wants to rest his front court.
The back court starters have been considerably less predictable, as Coach Pitino has at various times dipped into a pool that includes, for the point, senior Andre McGee (5-10, 180lbs) and junior Edgar Sosa (6-1, 175lbs), and for the wing (#2?, #3?) junior Jerry Smith (6-1, 200lbs) and sophomore Preston Knowles (6-1, 170lbs). Lately (the past 2 games), Coach Pitino has settled on Sosa and Smith as his starters, though he sat both points (McGee and Sosa) and started both Knowles and Smith versus UNLV. Knowles, McGee, Smith and Sosa take between 40% (Knowles) and 52.9% (Smith) of the minutes so far. Next off the bench will most likely be transfer junior Reginald Delk (6-4, 175lbs).
Louisville typically run up to 12 players through their games, with 9 drawing double digit minutes. Over the past 3 - 4 games freshmen Terrence Jennings (#4/#5, 6-10, 225lbs) & Kyle Kuric (#2, 6-4, 175lbs), along with sophomore Lee Steiden (#3, 6-4, 185lbs) and senior Will Scott (#2/#3, 6-3, 185lbs) have logged a few minutes apiece. In close games (UNLV, Ky, Minnesota...), the rotation may remain deep (11-12), but only 7 or so will see more than 9 minutes of play.
Villanova will start Dante Cunningham and Antonio Pena in the front court, with Scottie Reynolds in the back court. The remaining starting spots will most likely go to two of Corey Fisher, Dwayne Anderson, Corey Stokes, Reggie Redding or Shane Clark. Redding and Anderson started most recently against Seton Hall; Redding and Stokes started against Marquette, and Anderson & Stokes started the last three OOC games. Clark has not started at all this season, but expect to see him for 20 or so minutes.
By the Numbers, Offense & Defense...
The two teams have very similar numbers on both offense and defense. The Cardinal's offensive and defensive ratings are 105.4 (adjusted, ranked #90) and 82.7 (adjusted, ranked #4) respectively. The Wildcat's offensive & defensive ratings are 109.2 (adjusted, ranked #56) and 89.3 (adjusted, ranked #23) respectively. Texas' defense aside, this is the highest rated squad the Wildcats have faced. And Kentucky's defense aside, the same can be said of Louisville's challenge. The Cardinals play for about 70+ possessions (the deeper rotation?), while Nova seems to prefer a more deliberate pace, about 65 possessions.
| When Louisville has the ball... | ||||
| FTA | ||||
| eFG% | TO% | OR% | FGA | |
| Cardinal O | 50.3 | 18.9 | 35.2 | 24.2 |
| Wildcat D | 45.0 | 22.2 | 29.1 | 34.8 |
Villanova's shot defense (eFG%) has been rising slowly since the beginning of the Big East regular season (Marquette, Seton Hall), expect it to be challenged yet again by Louisville's outside shooters. The Cardinals have taken about 39% of their FGAs from beyond the arc -- look for Williams, McGee, Smith, Sosa and Knowles to fire away when the opportunity presents. Smith and Knowles are brutally efficient with their shot, though Smith appears to defer to others when he is playing. Knowles will fire away (about a 25% shot%), but needs someone to get him the ball after he finds his spot. Since 3 of 5 FGAs go inside however, expect Clark, Samuels and Williams to get a lot of touches (and FGAs). Of the three, Samuels is the most accurate, hitting at a 55% clip. In the battle of the boards, expect Pena, Anderson and Cunningham to be challenged by Samuels (a Top 100 OR% rebounder according to Ken Pomeroy) and Clark for Louisville's misses. Louisville takes pretty good care of the ball -- their TO% (18.9) ranks them #72 in D1. The problem appears to be in the Louisville back court, as both Sosa and McGee (and wing Jarod Swopshire) are the most likely to lose the ball. Knowles and Smith by contrast (mostly due to the catch-and-shoot style of offense) are least likely to turn it over. The "Four Factors" look at Villanova's offense versus Louisville's defense:
| When Villanova has the ball... | ||||
| FTA | ||||
| eFG% | TO% | OR% | FGA | |
| Wildcat O | 50.6 | 17.6 | 37.3 | 31.6 |
| Cardinal D | 42.8 | 23.3 | 26.8 | 36.2 |
Note the matchups on shooting and shot defense. Nova's eFG% has declined since the Temple game, and this Louisville team is ranked among the elite (#20) for defense. They are especially tough on inside scoring, limiting opponents to a 42% FGM%. Lousiville likes to force turnovers (they are ranked #57, according to Ken Pomeroy's Scouting Report Page); look for Williams, Knowles, McGee and Smith to lead the way. Nova's best offensive rebounders, Pena, Anderson & Cunningham will be challenged by Williams and Clark. Samuels is good (above average), but not an elite defensive rebounder at this point. Villanova looks for points from the free throw line as a necessary part of their offensive production; Louisville does tend to the mean for fouls. If it comes down to free throws, Louisville might have a problem...
Want to Beat Louisville? Then...
Shooting remains the single most important feature for each team...
1. Effectively shut down Louisville's shooters. The Cardinals are 0-3 in games where their eFG% is 41.5 or lower. Villanova has held opponents to an eFG% of 41.5 or lower 5 times (they are 5-0 when they do).
2. The Wildcats have to make their shots. The 'Cats are 10-0 when they have an eFG% of 46.6 or above. When they shoot 46.5 or below they are 3-2. When Louisville holds their opponents to an eFG% of 44.6 or lower they are 8-1. If their opponents shoot (eFG%) 47.8 or higher, the Cards are 3-2.
3. Nova must control their defensive boards. The Wildcats are 9-0 when they hold opponents to less than the D1 average (about 33%). The 'Cats drop to 4-2 when their opponents grab >34.0 (higher than the D1 average).
Finally...
...The Cardinals look to Clark, Williams, Knowles and Samuels to provide a balanced (inside/outside) attack. Villanova looks to Cunningham on the inside and Reynolds, who ironically appears to be more efficient from the outside so far this season, for an uncomfortably large part of their offense. Someone (or a couple of someones...) must provide a third option on offense.
Pace and offensive efficiency calculations point to a game that will be played for about 68 possessions (Louisville friendly), with the Wildcats taking a 1 point game (63-62). This one is clearly within the home court advantage range. At 55% confidence, the game is close to a pick'em.
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