Saturday, December 8, 2007

Preview -- Temple Owls

The most competitive of the Big 5 rivalries is the Temple Owls and Villanova Wildcats, not as many assume, the "Holy War" or one of the A10 rivalries. To date the record (depending on which program history you check) is either 40-39 (according to Villanova) or 41-40 (according to Temple). Both histories agree that Villanova leads. The source of the different records dates back to the beginning of Temple basketball. The Owls date the origins of their program back to the mid-1890's. In the years before America's entry into World War I the records at Temple show the Owls playing a team from Villanova twice. Once in the 1914-15 season (Temple lost) and once in the 1917-18 season (Temple won). Villanova dates the beginning of their program to 1920-21, a season in which they met the Owls twice (winning both times). The Cats and Owls played home-n-homes nearly annually until 1939, when for reasons not entirely clear, the series (like Penn) went on hiatus until the inauguration of the Big 5 in the mid 1950's. Throughout the life of the series the records have remained relatively close; neither program has held an edge of plus/minus 6 wins over the other. Villanova's ascendence is a relatively recent development. And obviously one that can change quickly based on the fortunes of the two programs...

What Others Say...
... Blue Ribbon gives the backcourt a B, the frontcourt a C+ and the bench/depth a B-. Brendan Quinn of The Bulletin wrote...

Entering his second season in North Philadelphia, Fran Dunphy returns one of the most dynamic scoring tandems in the nation in senior wing Mark Tyndale (19.4 points per game) and junior guard Dionte Christmas (20.0 ppg). Offense will not be a problem for this season's Owls. Success will begin and end on defense and under the glass.
- Brendan Quinn, "Dunphy, Temple Focused On Defense This Time Around.", 11/7/2007, The Bulletin

The A10 coaches poll projected Temple to finish 9th in the conference, announced at their Media Day event in Atlantic City. Jeff Borzello, a writer for College Hoops Net & blogger for March Madness All Season Blog catagorized the Owls as sleepers in the A10 race, but noted:

...Temple struggled last season and will likely do the same this year, but the Owls have the league’s top two scorers, meaning they will be tough on a nightly basis. Dionte Christmas can light up the scoreboard in a variety of ways, while Mark Tyndale is a tough player to defend and is also a very good rebounder and passer. In addition to those two, Chris Clark returns at the point, with Semaj Inge and Ryan Brooks fighting for minutes on the perimeter...
-- Jeff Borzello, 10/23/2007, "A10 Conference Preview"

Why Everyone Believes...
...The Owls add 6-9 225lb Lavoy Allen to give defenses another threat in addition to Dionte Christmas (junior, 6-5, 205lb) and Mark Tyndale (senior, 6-5, 210lb), considered one of the more dangerous scoring duos in the conference. Temple could always use another scorer, especially one with the size to play inside. And they always have Coach Fran Dunphy, the Dean of the Big 5 coaching fraternity.

So Far...
...Temple comes in with a 4-4 record that began with a three game slide. Their first game, a loss to Tennessee (SEC, 8-1, RPI #80) came on the road. The Owls then travelled to Puerto Rico and lost the first round of the Tip Off Classic to Providence (Big East, 5-3, RPI #3) and the second round to College of Charleston (Southern, 4-3, RPI #151). They have recorded wins against Marist (MAAC, 6-3, RPI #43) Bowling Green (MAC, 4-3, RPI #237) and Ohio University (MAC, 3-2, RPI #66). Their other loss came at the hands of University of Akron (MAC, 5-1, RPI #205). The emphasis on Mid American Conference opponents may be due to the Owls' football affiliation with that Ohio-Kentucky based conference. The Wildcats and Owls share several opponents every year, but since this is a fairly early game they not played any of their common opponents.

Temple By the Numbers...
...Temple's RPI, currently at #54, has fluctuated in a large range, no doubt due to the interaction of the quality of players and retired coach John Chaney's policy to assemble an extremely difficult slate of OOC opponents. The Owls have ranged from #184 (last season, Coach Dunphy's first) to #76 (2004-05), but settling most frequently in the low triple digits. Temple's "Four Factors" via Ken Pomeroy's Temple Scout Page are...


Temple's Four Factors
Temple on...eFG%RnkTO%RnkOR%RnkFR%Rnk
Offense53.76924.024032.120929.457
Defense47.810921.420236.225735.0162

Temple's field goal efficiency (eFG) is a very good 53.7 (#69), but they appear to be vulnerable on ball handling (TO% is 24.0, #240) and rebounding (both, OR% on offense is 32.1, #209), two areas of strength for Villanova's defense. Their defense for shots is just above average (47.8, #109), but they may not get after rebounds (36.2, #257), again an area of strength for Villanova. The rivalry and away atmosphere may mask some of the Owl's problems, but they happen to be areas that Villanova usually excels in.

Frontcourt vs frontcourt...
...Freshman Lavoy Allen and junior Sergio Olmos (7-0, 220 lbs) form the nucleus of a frontcourt presence. This pair has started virtually every one of Temple's 8 games this season (Allen has started only 7 games). Of the two frontcourt players Olmos has logged the fewest minutes (<60% of the available PT), most likely due to fouls (he has been DQ'ed twice). Allen's ORtg (110.6, #) is high, but with possesson % at 16.2, Allen benefits at this point from being the Owl's third/fourth offensive option. Coach Wright has started Cunningham consistently over the past 5 games. Dante, along with 4 time starter Casiem Drummond, have been joined by Shane Clark when he is healthy. If Clark is unable to go, look for Coach Wright to start a third guard, though he did opt for redshirt freshman Antonio Pena to start next to Shane Clark while Casiem Drummond sat.

Backcourt vs backcourt...
...Coach Dunphy has Senior Mark Tyndale joined with wing scoring junior Dionte Christmas (6-5 205 lbs) and "one from Column C" to start the backcourt. Tyndale and Christmas may or may not be wings or sfs, tall guards or short forwards. Of the two Christmas is more likely to take the 3 while Tyndale is more likely to go to the tin. Coach Dunphy has held tryouts for the pg spot, so far junior Semaj Inge (6-4, 180 lbs) and sophomore Luis Guzman (6-3, 180 lbs) have had 4 starts each. Guzman is a bit more efficient as a scorer (though in truth neither is getting starter-level possessions and shots...) and distributes well (ARate is 20.7, good for #436 ranking), while Inge does a better job blocking shots and getting steals. Both turn the ball over far too much for a point. Once the game is rolling Coach Dunphy will sit Olmos or the point and bring in senior Chris Clark (5-8, 165 lbs) or sophomore Ryan Brooks (6-4, 200 lbs). Each has logged between 55.4 to 64.2 percent of the available minutes. Clark is by far the more efficient scorer, but is at best the fourth or fifth option on the floor (when he is on the floor...). Coach Wright can counter with a number of player combinations. So far he has started Redding and Reynolds in every game. That trend may well continue for another 3+ games. Or it might end with this game. Malcolm Grant had a tremendous game versus LSU, pouring in 18 points in the last 12 minutes of play. The 'Cats can use that type of energy from the start of the game. Fisher is also ready, receiving regular minutes and bring some quicklness to the offense.

Final Thoughts
...This is a Big 5 game so anything can happen. On paper this looks like a Villanova "W"...but then so did the LSU game going in. Temple has already taken two pages out of LSU's book on tough losses. Twice. Should Villanova fall behind the Wildcats may find these Owls surprisingly difficult to fluster with a flurry of late game presses and traps. The 'Cats should be able to dominate the Owl frontcourt, which may force Dunphy to keep Olmos in the game longer than he (Dunphy) might want. And the better athletes in the Wildcat's back court should give the wings and the point guard du jeur a proper challenge. But will they play hard (and smart) from the tip off?

Coach Wright continues to look for the best combination he can put on the court. Pena started the LSU game and played 20+ minutes. Win or lose the experimentation will continue with this game, especially if the 'Cats take control early.

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