Preview -- Columbia Lions

Another former Big 5 assistant brings his team to the Pavilion to play Villanova. This time the former assistant is Villanova's own Joe Jones, and the team is the Columbia University Lions. Jones brings what might be Columbia's strongest squad in 40 years into the Pav on Saturday evening for the second meeting since Jones took the Columbia HC position. Their first meeting, in Jones' first year as HC, was four years to the day of this meeting (12/22/2003). The Wildcats beat the Lions 74-66. Overall this is the fourth meeting in a series that dates back to the 1969-70 season. Villanova holds a 3-1 advantage...

What Others Say...
... Blue Ribbon gives the backcourt a B-, the frontcourt a B+ and the bench/depth a A.

Escape from New York? That won't be for opponents. Every key player returns from a Lions team that posted the program's best record since the 1992-93 season. The veterans include four senior starters...With some better results on the road, coach Joe Jones' squad can be a factor in the (Ivy League) title race.
- Athlon's 2007-08 NCAA Preview

In a year in which the winner of the Ivy League will most likely not be a school whose name starts with the letter "P", Columbia (along with Yale and Cornell) is listed as a serious contender.

Why Everyone Believes...
...The team that finished on nice jag last season returns virtually intact. An upper classmen-dominated frontcourt is anchored at the center & forward spots by seniors Ben Nwachukwu (center, 6-9, 235) and John Baumann (forward, 6-8, 220). The backcourt offers senior Brett Loscalzo (6-0, 180) at the point (backed up by senior Kashif Sweet, a 5-11 180 ball handler), with a small army of (all veteran) off guards to choose from, The list includes soph. Niko Scott (6-3, 200), senior Mack Montgomery (6-5, 195), junior KJ Matsui (6-2, 180), senior Justin Armstrong (6-4, 225), soph Patrick Foley (6-2, 170) and soph Kevin Bulger (6-3, 200). Given the shift to offensive schemes that offer opportunities for 3s, the depth of backcourt and wing players, virtually all with at least a year of experience with Coach Jones, is impressive.

So Far...
...Columbia puts a 4-6 record on the line when they face the Wildcats. The Lions participated in the NIT Tip-off where they won their first round game against Delaware State (MEAC, 3-6, RPI #205), but lost their second round game to Ohio State (Big 10, 6-3, RPI #87 ). The Lions have also beaten Stony Brook (AE, , RPI #), Wagner (NEC, 7-3, RPI #229) and St. Francis (NY) (NEC, 3-8, RPI #276). They have lost to Fordham (A10, 4-4, RPI #183), Albany (AE, 5-5, RPI #197), Long Island University (NEC, 7-3, RPI #118), Sacret Heart (NEC, 3-6, RPI #288) and Lafayette (Patriot League, 6-3, RPI #208). The 'Cats and Lions share a single opponent so far this year -- Stony Brook of the American East Conference...

	Nova		Columbia
Opponent	W/L	Diff.	W/L	Diff.
Stony Brook	W (H)	+22	W (A)	+20

Columbia By the Numbers...
Over the past 5 years Columbia's RPI has ranged from #325 (Coach Jone's first season) up to #202 (last season). Columbia is a well lower average pace team this season (63.5 possessions, adjusted, via Ken Pomeroy's Columbia Scout Page which ranks the Lions #303 out of approx. 341 - the current average for pace is 68.6). Columbia's Four Factors stats for offense and defense (ranks as of 12/17/2007)...

Columbia's Four Factors
							FTA
Columbia on...	eFG%	Rnk	TO%	Rnk	OR%	Rnk	FGA	Rnk
Defense	49.4	166	17.5	331	30.8	88	38.8	227
Offense	46.0	274	21.5	141	30.8	247	23.4	190

The defensive numbers are not too bad -- the Lions could force more turnovers, but a general lack of aggression on defense is a characteristic of a perimeter oriented team (see side bar for more details). The one anomaly (with respect to POTs) is the FTRate. At 38.8 (#227), it is a bit high for a team whose offensive scheme trades physical play (in the paint) for open looks on the perimeter. While their shot defense (49.4, #166) is ok, they give up a lot of points inside -- their 2FGM% is 50.0, opponents make ½ of their 2FGAs. On offense the Lions show many of the POT characteristics as well, but the one very bad stat is eFG%. At 46.0 it is a killer. Given the mix of 3FGAs to 2FGAs (46.1, or almost ½ of their FGAs are 3s...), the Lions are struggling from the field (2FGM% is 43.9, #289, 3FGM% is 32.4, #237)

Frontcourt vs frontcourt...
...With a roster of seven frontcourt players to choose from (4 of them upper classmen) Coach Jones has given the minutes to seniors Ben Nwachukwu (center) and John Baumann (forward). Baumann has delivered, taking nearly 75% of the minutes at his position, 25% of the available possessions (when he is on the floor) and 28% of the shots (that's almost 3 of every 10 shots taken...). His ORtg (112.6) confirms that he is efficient despite the defensive attention he no doubt draws. He is the Lions most effective offensive weapon. Nwachukwu and junior forward Joe Bova (6-7, 220) see minutes (about 50% of the PT), but are valued far more for their defense (both are Top 500 rebounders, Nwachukwu for both offense and defensive rebounding and Bova for defensive rebounding), than their offense. Asenso Ampim (fr., 6-6, 240), Zack Crimmins (fr. 7-0, 220) and Jason Miller (jr., 6-8, 215) see occasional minutes. Villanova's staff will most likely start Dante Cunningham (a virtual starter from his freshman year) and Shane Clark (if he is healthy). Casiem Drummond was a consistent starter until the LSU game. And he was held out of the Hartford game with an ankle sprain. If healthy he, along with Antonio Pena and Corey Stokes, will no doubt see minutes.

Backcourt vs backcourt...
...Coach Jones will most likely start senor Brett Loscalzo and soph Niko Scott. While Mack Montgomery has gotten more of the available starts than the other contenders (9 starts in all), Patrick Foley & KJ Matsui have also started at least one game apiece. Kevin Bulger, Justin Armstrong and senior Kashif Sweet (5-11, 180) have all received minutes coming off the bench. The problem is perimeter scoring. Coach Jones is looking for a consistent outside complement to Baumann. While Loscalzo provides some efficient offense (his ORtg is 107.0), he is a distribute-first point guard who will set up someone else rather than take the shot himself. Coach Jones needs another consistent outside scorer. KJ Matsui may step into that role -- his ORtg of 117.3 suggests he has the potential, but with only 19.3% of the PT so far he has not seen the floor enough yet to stake his claim to that spot on the wing. Villanova will start Scottie Reynolds. Reggie Redding has started every game so far, but has struggled the past two outings. Corey Fisher started against both Temple and Hartford, and may well get the nod again. Malcolm Grant is virtually guaranteed to see the floor as well, most likely for at least 10+ minutes.

Final Thoughts...
...This game will brings another veteran perimeter shooting team to test Nova's perimeter defense. The team can use the work, as perimeter defense (specifically defending the 3 point shot) has been a persistent problem. Columbia will get to take it's turn. Baumann, Nwachukwu and Bova seem to be less athletic versions of Cunningham and Pena. It will be interesting to see if the Villanova frontcourt rebounders will be able to limit Columbia's opportunities. Baumann in particular makes his living at the free throw line, and could therefore, pose a particular challenge to Cunningham, who has been prone to quick fouls. If they are on the floor together, expect Columbia's offense to come from some combination of Baumann, Matsui, Foley, Nwachukwu or Scott. Only Baumann and Matsui however, have been consistent.

Coach Wright has an aversion to running up the score, though historically it has proven to be an effective way to impress Poll voters. Given that Jones is a former assistant, I doubt the 'Cats will run out to a huge lead here either, but most likely will control the flow of the game early on (especially given Columbia's shooting problems). In game situations where control is established early, the staff has run a rotation of 11 to 12 players. If it happens Saturday, look for Dwayne Andersone, the hero of the Hartford game, along with Andy Ott and Frank Tchuisi to get some minutes. Ken Pomeroy's log5 calculation shows a decided bias towards Villanova (98%). The adjusted offensive/defensive ratings project a +26 Villanova win (with a game pace of 66 possessions).