World University Games Preview -- USA & Lithuania

How They Got Here
With the end of group play yesterday the field reseeds for the next round of matches. The original 24 teams (23 actually arrived in Shenzhen to play) were divided into four groups of six teams and scheduled for a five game round robin with the other teams in their group. The two teams that finished with the worst records were supposed to play two classification round games to determine ranks #17 through #24, while the two teams that finished in the #3 & #4 positions play a two classification round games to determine ranks #9 through #16. Each groups #1 and #2 ranked teams will play three matches to determine the #1 through #8 order of finish.

Team USA swept their competition in Group D, going 5-0 for the first prelimnary round and taking the #1 seed. Team Lithuania was assigned to Group C, along with teams from Russia, Ukraine, Japan, New Zealand and the Philipines. The Lithuanians finished #2 with a record of 4-1, their only loss to Team Russia.

By the Numbers, Offense & Defense...
...Team Lithuania has averaged 79.7 possessions through five tournament games, about three possessions lower than the Americans (82.6), so this should not be a tug-of-war over pace. Though the sample is very small, the offensive and defensive efficiencies, along with the possession-based stats may be worth a look...

	Teams
Efficiency	Lith.	USA
Offense	1.07	1.33
Defense	0.91	0.87
Difference	+0.16	+0.46

Given the lack of crossover games to tie the field together, the differences can be deceptive. The efficiency margins however (when combined with four factors below) suggest that favoring the Americans in this game is probably justified. While Lithuania dropped their Group C final game against Russia (62-77), Team USA's closest Group D game was versus Israel (94-84). Russia finished Group C with the #1 seed, while Israel's 2-3 record sent that team to the #9-#16 classifications. The Lithuanians rely on two point field goals for their offense. About 67% of their FGAs are two's, and they count on two's for 60% of their points, the balance coming from three's (23%) or at the line (16%). Why the emphasis on two point FGAs? Maybe because they have problems converting three's. The Lithuanians have averaged a 30.2% conversion rate for three point attempts -- had they taken those points as two's, they would have had to hit at a 45.1% rate, well below their 58.2% conversion rate for two's. They did not take three's because they converted at a more efficient rate with two's.

A "Four Factors" comparison when Team Lithuania has the ball...

When Lithuania has the ball...
				FTA
	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FGA
Lithuanian O	54.1	20.5	38.7	33.4
American D	42.9	21.4	31.8	30.4

The key for Team Lithuania is efficient scoring by 6-6 wing Marius Valunkonis from Vytautas Magnus University and 6-10 Gediminus Zyle, a Euro-style forward out of Mykolas Romeris University. The two typically account for about 50+% of the shots when they are on the floor together. Should one or the other hit a dry spell, the Lithuanians need for a second group, generally headed by 6-7 forward/wing Gediminus Orelik (Kaunas University of Technology...Kaunas Tech?) and/or guard Ernestas Ezerskas (a teammate of Valunkonis at Vytautas Magnus University) to step in and fill the void. The Lithuanians have been a bit lax with the ball (see turnover rate), but give themselves a second chance on missed shots with strong offensive rebounding. Given the Americans have been strong on shutting down second chance opportunities, the battle under the Lithuanian's basket should become a strengh-on-strength matchup. The Americans have been strong at challenging for the ball (see their defensive turnover rate above); the two are fairly evenly matched on turnovers, so expect the Lithuanians to lose about one-in-five possessions; more than that and their offensive efficiency could be seriously diminshed; less than that, and the Americans could be in trouble defensively. The "Four Factors" look at Team USA's offense versus Lithuania's defense:

When the Americans have the ball...
				FTA
	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FGA
USA O	59.4	15.3	53.0	40.5
Lithuanian D	45.0	20.6	26.1	31.7

Though JayMychal Green has paced the team in the past two games, scoring opportunities have been nicely distributed throughout the rotation, with Ashton Gibbs, John Jenkins and Scoop Jardine all knocking down game-high numbers at least once in the tournament and exhibition games. All four, plus Trevor Mbakwe have scored more than 10 points in more than one game. A lot of shooter/scorers to cover and shut down. Like the Lithuanians, the Americans look inside the three point line for their scoring, taking 71.4% of their field goal attempts as two's. Unlike the Lithuanians however, the American squad has converted 41.2% of their attempts, comparable to a 61.8% two point conversion rate. The Americans can look to Jenkins (principally), Gibbs, Draymond Green and Darius Miller for efficient conversion of the attempt. They have been good enough at the two point attempt (54.5% conversion rate) to open up the outside for opportunities.

Finally...
...Assuming a pace for the game of about 80 possessions, the Americans (based on efficiency margins, see above) should win by double digits -- about 15 or so. There are, for Team USA a couple of wrinkles...

1. Team USA has yet to play a competitive, 40 minute game. Several Group D teams (Mexico, South Korea) were able to hang with Team USA for a quarter, sometimes a bit more. The Israelis led after a quarter, and were competitive to another quarter and a half (about 15 minutes, 25 minutes total). The lack of competition had Coach Matt Painter experiment with a different starting five and mix the rotation a bit, neither of which are particularly good when trying to develop game-to-game consistency.
2. The stakes grow immensely in the medal round(s). A single loss in the preliminary round will (almost...) never send a team to the Classification rounds, while a loss in the medal rounds will consign a team immediately to the classifications. Badly timed losses have historically plagued American squads in international tournaments. The quarter final round in particular is a trap game for USA teams. Whether the breakdown is lack of preparation from the staff or lack of understanding by the squad members is not clear, but American squads have a habit of finishing fifth in FIBA and FISU competition with a single loss.

This particular squad may dodge that bullet, as Gibbs, Denmon and JayMychal Green have played on international teams (in similar tournaments) during their college careers. Those three should understand the transition that takes place as the tournament shifts from the preliminary round ("group play") format to the type of single round elimination format used in the medal rounds.

Roster Moves -- Armwood to Transfer

After the European Tour
According to Jeff Goodman over at CBSSports.com, Villanova captain, rising junior Isaiah Armwood will leave the Villanova program to pursue basketball opportunities with another D1 program. "He’s the greatest kid in the world...He’s our hardest-working guy, our captain. We started him every game on our trip...I just want to see him achieve his goals,” Wright said in the post by Goodman.

“It’s more about basketball than the school or the campus right now. … I just want to be able to exploit everything I can do. I don’t want to be limited in any things I can do.” Armwood told The Baltimore Sun reporter Matt Bracken in an interview earlier today. Schools identified by Armwood as possible destinations included George Washington (Armwood knows Assistant Coach Pete Strickland), Iowa (Assistant Coach Andrew Francis was on the Villanova staff several years ago), Texas Tech (Associate Head Coach Chris Walker was at Villanova last year), Maryland (a school Armwood grew up following) and Virginia (they contacted him earlier today).

Best of luck Isaiah!

World University Games 2011 -- USA Over Israel, Undefeated in Group D Play

USA 94-84 Israel
Team USA ended their Group D competition by defeating Israel 94-84, finishing with a 5-0 record. Team Israel gave Team USA it's best competition to date, outpointing the American by six in their second quarter -- the first quarter lost by Team USA in the competition -- taking a two point, 43-41 lead into half-time. Coach Matt Painter's squad responded with an explosive third quarter, outscoring the Israelis by 10, 29-19, to take an eight point lead, 70-62, into the last quarter. They added another two points to the margin to secure their sixth consecutive double-digit winning margin in the WUG Tournament.

Tied six times in the second and (first five minutes of...) the third quarter, the teams were not separated by more than four points through that 15 minute stretch. Team USA broke on top with an 8-2 run in the last 2:30 of the third quarter, fueled by buckets and free throws contributed by JayMychal Green (a field goal and two free throws), Marcus Denmon (a layup) and Tim Abromaitis (a layup). A Darius Miller jumper 15 seconds into the fourth quarter pushed the USA lead out to 10, and the Americans were not seriously challenged again. The score by quarters...

	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	Game
USA	27	14	29	24	94
Israel	23	20	19	22	84

Israeli forward Anton Shoutvin logged a game-high 20 points on 7-13 (0-1, 7-12) shooting from the floor and 6-9 from the line. For the second consecutive game Alabama's rising senior J Green led Team USA scorers with 16 points on 5-9 (0-0, 5-9) from the field and 6-9 from the line. Trevor Mbakwe recorded a double-double, scoring 12 points to go with a game-high 13 (5-8-13) rebounds. Two other squad members Denmon (13 points) and John Jenkins (12 points), scored more than 10 points. JayMychal Green collected seven carooms. The Israelis' Shoutvin grabbed a team-high eight rebounds.

The possession-based breakdown...

						FTA
Team	Pace	Eff.	eFG%	TOV	OR%	FGA	Ast%	PPWS
Team USA	81.6	1.13	55.6	19.6	44.2	35.2	22.2	1.13
Team Israel		1.03	51.7	24.5	29.7	46.7	37.9	1.15

Unlike the first five games (and a predictor of the games to come?) the USA coaching staff used 11 of the 12 players available, even as the playing time was the least evenly distributed of any prior game. The starters, Scoop Jardine, Jenkins, Orlando Johnson, Miller and Mbakwe played for a combined 49% of the available playing time, with four of the starters averaging 20.8 minutes.

Next
With the #1 seed in Group D, Team USA will meet #2 seed Lithuania from Group C in the quarter final rounds on Saturday at 3:30 am (Eastern DST) in Shenzhen University Main Gym.

Further Reading
USA Basketball posted a game recap on their website, along with a box score and post game quotes.

World University Games 2011 -- USA Overwhelms Finland

USA 124 Finland 64
Team USA secured the #1 seed coming out of Group D play as part of their continued domination of play in their pool. In the Shenzhen University Gym today they came within four points of doubling up Team Finland, 124-64. As Ray McCallum put it, "Before the game in film today, (Butler) coach (Brad) Stevens really stressed coming out strong from the get-go, being focused and playing hard. I thought that was what we did, and our walk-through this morning carried over to the game today...", as their 12 point lead (31-19) in the first quarter attested. The consistency and momentum continued into the second quarter, as Team USA padded their lead with another 13 points (32-19), taking a large 25 point half-time lead (63-38) into the intermission. Coach Matt Painter continued to employ a large rotation, using all 12 members of the squad with a relatively even distribution of playing time. No player drew more than 47.5% of the playing time (about 19 minutes) at his position, and fully eight players logged at least 40% of the playing time (at least 16 minutes) over the course of the game. Reeling from their 25 point first half deficit, the Finns sa the Americans nearly double their scoring margin by adding another 24 points to their lead with a 37-13 third quarter, pushing the score to 100-51. Team USA took their foot off the pedal in the fourth quarter and cruised home to a 124-64 win, a stunning 60 point margin of victory. With the game well in hand, USA Coach Matt Painter (Purdue) decided to experiment, "...We mixed up the line up a little bit tonight and swaped (sic) our point guards, Scoop (Jardine) and Ashton (Gibbs), just to get a different look and see how our guys would respond to it, and both groups played well..." The game starters, (Tim Abromaitis, the Greens -- Draymond & JayMychal -- Denmon and Gibbs) combined for 44% of the playing time, another indication of the large early scoring margin. The score by quarters...

	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	Game
USA	31	32	37	24	124
Finland	19	19	13	13	64

JayMychal Green paced all scorers with 21 points (in 15 minutes of play) on 6-7 (1-1, 5-6) from the field and 8-10 from the line. Four other Team USA squad members Trevor Mbakwe (14 points in 16 minutes), Ashton Gibbs (13 points in 18 minutes), John Jenkins (12 points in 16 minutes) and Marcus Denmon (10 points in 18 minutes) scored more than 10 points. Draymond Green gathered nine (5-4-9) rebounds as three other Americans (JayMychal Green, Mbakwe and Darius Miller) collected six apiece. Anti Kanervo paced the Finns with a 20 point performance on 8-13 (1-4, 7-9) from the field and 3-4 from the line. Roope Ahonen scored 10 points while two members of the Team Finland squad, Petri Heinonen and Carl Lindbom grabbed team-high four rebounds apiece.

The possession-based breakdown...

						FTA
Team	Pace	Eff.	eFG%	TOV	OR%	FGA	Ast%	PPWS
Team USA	82.6	1.50	63.3	14.5	62.9	54.7	48.8	1.31
Team Finland		0.77	41.4	24.2	35.9	14.3	38.5	0.86

Team USA logged their fourth consecutive game of < 80 possessions with an offensive efficiency of more than 1.13. In three of those games Team USA logged an offensive efficiency (points per possession scored) of 1.31, an impressive level of scoring efficiency powered by shot conversion efficiency (eFG% -- note their 60% rate versus Finland), offensive rebounding rate (50% or better in three of their four WUG matches) and ability to get to the line (see FTA/FGA above -- 54.7%) as a percentage of their field goal attempts. If Team USA misses their field goal attempts, odds are excellent (about 1-in-2) they will rebound the miss and/or get to the line (again, about 1-in-2). On the defensive side Team USA has successfully limited their opponents to an eFG% of <45%, forced turnovers at a close-to 25% rate in three of four games and kept their opponents from balancing the scoring deficit with trips to the line. The American squad is one of four among the 24 team field that remains undefeated.

Next
Team USA has secured a #1 seed going into the quarter final rounds, but still must face Team Israel on Thursday before taking on either Team Russia or Team Lithuania (for those following the U19 World Championships last month, sound familiar?) on Saturday. The USA faces off against Israel Thursday morning at 3:20 am Eastern Daylight Savings time in Shenzhen University Main Gym.

Further Reading
USA Basketball posted a game recap on their website, along with a box score and post game quotes.

Europe 2011 -- Through a Looking Glass

A Review of Team Efficiencies
This season will be unusual in the Jay Wright Era because for the first time since 2005 the team will be led by juniors, albeit not as heralded, nor assertive, as the Class of 2006. Unlike the quartet of Foye/Ray/Fraser/Sumpter, this quartet (Wayns/Cheek/Armwood/Yarou) was not thrown into the fire as freshmen and sophomores. The Class of 2012 has played behind two talented classes that featured Scottie Reynolds and the Two Coreys. As sophomores the staff drew up last possession plays for Randy Foye, Alan Ray, Scottie Reynolds & the two Coreys, not so for Maalik, Dom or Mouph. This European Tour, especially the Euro Jam 2011 Tournament in Almere, Netherlands provides the rising junior the opportunity and responsibility to run the team and represent the Villanova program. Three games is an extremely small sample, but that is all we have to review...

						FTA
	Pace	Eff	eFG%	TOv%	OR%	FGA	PPWS
Offense	81.1	0.87	46.9	23.9	26.0	42.3	1.00
Defense		1.04	53.7	20.2	30.1	26.0	1.11

The Wildcats had a solid offensive outing versus the Israelis, scoring at about 1.15 points per possession (ppp), but sputtered against the Dutch (0.76 ppp) and, with two starters benched early with foul trouble, stalled (0.69 ppp) versus the Georgian National Team. Villanova had a single solid defensive outing, limiting the Netherlands National Team to 0.91 ppp. Not good enough to win however, because the offense could muster no better than a 0.76 ppp (see above). Defensive problems could be penned nearly entirely on shot defense, shown above as 53.7% (eFG%) -- forcing turnovers was good (not great), the 'Cats limited put-back opportunities and kept their opponents off the free throw line. They could not, however shut down their opponent's ability to convert field goals. Historically Villanova has been vulnerable for three point conversions, but in Almere the squad did a good job of defending the three point line (27-94, 28.7%) -- the problem was defending the lane and interior (69-110, 62.7%). Offensively there were problems not only with converting field goal attempts, but also with turnovers (nearly one-in-four possessions were lost not on a missed shot) and especially offensive rebounding (the 'Cats must second chance opportunities if they do not convert shots efficiently).

The Offensive Nucleus
Who/what combination of players will fuel the Wildcat offense in 2012? The staff started Maalik Wayns, Dominic Cheek, James Bell, Isaiah Armwood and Mouphtaou Yarou in all three of the Euro Jam games (the senior National Teams from Israel, the Netherlands and Georgia), but used the entire 10 man rotation. The starters averaged 57.9% of the available playing time, though they were used more in the closer Israel game and less in the blowout Georgia game. A look at a few of the efficiency numbers posted by the players might provide some clues on where the offense will come from in 2012...

					FTA
Player	Min%	Shot%	eFG	PPWS	FGA	In/Out
Yarou	70.1	25.3	45.2	1.08	77.4	74.19
Cheek	68.5	29.2	67.1	1.34	14.3	-8.57
Wayns	64.4	30.2	41.2	1.00	44.1	14.71
Hilliard	61.9	13.9	50.0	0.97	20.0	-33.33
Pinkston	58.6	7.8	75.0	1.24	150.0	150.00
Bell	47.0	21.9	30.6	0.60	22.2	-22.22
Kennedy	40.4	15.5	45.5	0.91	0.0	0.00
Armwood	39.6	14.4	20.0	0.55	20.0	10.00
Yacoubou	38.8	14.7	35.0	0.73	20.0	0.00
Sutton	10.7	16.0	33.3	0.79	233.3	233.33

Maallik Wayns' 30% shot rate (the percentage of available shots Wayns took when he was on the court) is very high given his relatively inefficient confersion rate (eFG% -- 41.2%). Nor did the point guard compensate with trips to the line (see his PPWS). Wayns' effectiveness on offense was further undermined by turnovers. The guard committed a total of 12 over the three games, besting the freshman Darrun Hilliard by 1 (Hilliard had 11). Between them, the two guards committed 45.1% of the team's turnovers. The Netherlands and Georgia both employed a variety of presses which forced turnovers from both guards. Note that Mouphtaou Yarou's eFG% is not significantly better than Wayns' (a problem going forward...), but by getting to the line relatively (see his FTA/FGA -- 77.4%) often, Yarou was still able to post points (his PPWS is 1.08, better than Wayns' 1.00). Dom Cheek was the second option on offense, and came through with some very productive games, posting a three game eFG% of 67.1% with a PPWS of 1.34, both very strong. Though it is tempting to dub Pinkston and Hilliard the next wave of offensive shakers, note that with only 13.7% and 7.8% of the shots respectively, most likely both were overlooked by defenses, who chose to focus their attention on stopping Wayns, Yarou, Cheek and Bell. And with respect to Wayns and Bell, those defenses were relatively successful. Pinkston and Hilliard may well develop into prolific and efficient offensive options, but the stats only hint at the possibility, they do not confirm. More efficient scoring from the role players (the players whose Shot% ranges from 14%-19%) would help to keep defenses honest. It might also motivate Wayns to distribute the ball more, rather than attempt to take so much of the offense on himself.

Observations
1. Bell and Hilliard are the Wildcats' principal outside threats. Note the In/Out stat. The larger the negative number, the higher proportion of three point shots taken by the player. Markus Kennedy scored a 0.0 In/Out, not because he is "neutral", but because he did not get to the line, logically anticipated when players score from the interior.
2. Not billed as impact players, seeing relatively low Shot% numbers from Kennedy and Yacoubou is not surprising. They will most likely develop larger offensive roles as the season progresses.
3. Given the additional practices, Bell's lack of efficient offensive production is troubling. For the Wildcats to succeed this season, Bell is one of the players who will have to be more effective offensively.

World University Games 2011 -- USA Routs South Korea

USA 112 South Korea 68
Continuing their domination of Group D play, Team USA secured their third consecutive +30 point win over a Group D opponent Monday as they defeated South Korea 112-68 in the University of Shenzhen's Main Gym. In the most competitive first quarter so far, Team South Korea trailed by five, 24-19. As a hint of the coming board domination, Kentucky's Darius Miller took a shot inside the first 17 seconds of play and retrieved his own miss. His second attempt missed but Minnesota's Trevor Mbakwe grabbed the miss and was fouled. The Americans stretched their lead out to double digits on the strength of a 10-3 run to open the second quarter. Pittsburgh's Ashton Gibbs contributed two defensive rebounds and four points on two field goal conversions. Greg Mangano, Yale University's contribution to the USA front court added four points of his own on 2-3 shooting in the paint and two boards, one on defense and the other, on offense, which led to his put-back. The Americans withstood a 15-12 South Korea run, and used the last 1:32 of the first half to stage a 4-0 run of their own on a pair of two pointers to push their lead back out to 13, 55-42.

	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	Game
USA	24	31	26	31	112
South Korea	19	23	12	14	68

Pushing the lead out to 20, 68-48, in the first five minutes of the third quarter, Team USA broke the game open with a 13-6 run (81-54) to close out the third quarter. The Greens, Alabama's JayMychal Green and Michigan State's Draymond Green, were especially active, grabbing six rebounds (JayMychal -- 2, Draymond -- 4) and scoring 10 points (JayMychal -- 4, Draymond -- 6). Two made threes aside (Gibbs & Scoop Jardine) Team USA took two point attempts as they shifted back to inside and pushed their lead out to the final stretch (44 points).

The possession-based breakdown...

						FTA
Team	Pace	Eff.	eFG%	TOV	OR%	FGA	Ast%	PPWS
Team USA	82.1	1.36	59.1	12.2	56.1	31.7	31.1	1.19
South Korea		0.83	35.5	15.8	30.9	30.3	33.3	0.78

JayMychal Green scored a game-high 17 points on 7-10 (0-0, 7-10) shooting from the field and 3-5 from the line. Five other Americans, Jardine (16 points), Gibbs (14 points), Mbakwe (14 points), John Jenkins (12 points) and D. Green (12 points) all recorded double digit points. D. Green led all rebounders with 12 (6-6-12) caroms, recording a double-double in the process. Mbakwe's 11 rebounds also earned the forward from Minnesota a double-double. Mingoo Kim paced the South Koreans in both points scored (12) and rebounds (8).
Next
Team USA take Tuesday off and swings back into action Wednesday when they play Team Finland at 6:00 am Eastern time.

Further Reading
USA Basketball posted a game recap on their website.
The World University Games host posted the box score, along with the shot chart and play-by-play from the Shenzhen University website.

World University Games 2011 -- USA Hammers Hungary

USA 102 Hungary 53
The USA men's team upped their World University Games record to 2-0 with a dominant performance over Team Hungary Sunday in the University of Shenzhen's Main Gym. The final score, 102-53 hints at the gap between the two teams. Team USA had already doubled-up Team Hungary when John Jenkins hit his first of first of his record six three point field goals. Jenkins hit his second in the waning moments of the first quarter to stake the American squad to a 21-6 lead. Team USA stretched their lead to 39, 58-19 on a scorching 37-13 second quarter. The Americans outscored the Hungarians 26-6 in the third quarter, holding Team Hungary scoreless for the last five minutes of the period as they went on a 13-0 run. Jenkins hit the last of his six three point goals as the third quarter wound down, finishing the period with 20 points. Taking a 63 point lead into the last quarter, the Americans eased off as the Hungarians closed the final gap to 49, 102-53. The possession-based breakdown...

						FTA
Team	Pace	Eff.	eFG%	TOV	OR%	FGA	Ast%	PPWS
Team USA	73.6	1.39	54.3	10.9	45.9	52.9	50.0	1.16
Hungary		0.72	39.7	27.2	38.1	24.1	45.0	0.82

At 73.6 possessions, the pace was not "exhibition-high", but still above what one might expect from a Division 1 (NCAA) game (VMI & North Carolina excepted). Their 1.39 points per possession (ppp) nearly doubled Team Hungary's 0.72 ppp, unheard of in international and D1 basketball. The American dominated the offensive boards, if they did not convert on the first attempt, they were nearly assured to either get a second try (45.9% offensive rebound rate), or go to the line (53.9% FTA/FGA). The score by quarters...

	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	Game
USA	21	37	26	18	102
Hungary	6	13	6	28	53

Next
Team USA plays Team South Korea Monday at 3:30 am Eastern time.

Further Reading
USA Basketball posted a game recap on their website.
The official World Univesity Games website posted the box score at USA basketball, USA Basketball's game recap and play-by-play from the Shenzhen University website.