Dove Entrails, Tea Leaves and Returning Minutes (by Year)

Breaking it Down by Year...
Last summer I followed my original post with a break down of minutes by experience level with a number of comments about how ordering the teams by 3, 2 and 1 years of experience changed the order. The breakdown by years going into 2009-10 looks like this...

Team	%Min	%3L	%2L	%1L
Cincinnati	77.9	22.7	38.5	38.8
Connecticut	38.9	64.1	2.8	33.2
DePaul	68.0	25.3	28.3	41.4
Georgetown	68.5	0.0	21.1	78.9
Louisville	54.8	37.3	15.2	47.5
Marquette	31.8	62.8	1.0	36.2
Notre Dame	47.0	85.7	11.7	2.7
Pittsburgh	42.5	0.0	49.7	50.3
Providence	36.0	70.8	29.2	0.0
Rutgers	62.7	18.5	31.0	50.5
Seton Hall	75.8	38.5	23.7	37.5
St. John's	93.4	1.6	82.1	16.3
South Florida	62.9	27.0	29.6	43.4
Syracuse	44.4	59.5	24.8	16.5
Villanova	63.1	48.2	51.8	0.0
West Virginia	65.9	42.0	20.1	38.0

Only about half of the conference teams have released "summer rosters" to this point, a little late compared to last summer, and a problem when trying to develop a clear picture of who will be available next season. The status of three players in particular -- rising junior Reggie Redding from Villanova, rising freshman Truck Bryant and red shirt junior Joe Mazzulla, both from West Virginia -- is not certain. Bryant and Mazzulla, suspended by West Virginia coach Bob Huggins several months ago, are not counted in West Virginia's numbers. Redding, the subject of a criminal complaint from Radnor Township, PA (where Villanova is located) is counted in Villanova's numbers. But that could change pending the University's decision.

Peaks and Valleys
The 0.0 percentages drew my attention immediately. I assumed the ideal for a program was an even distribution of the minutes (about 1/3 of the time for each of the returning classes), with some (minor) variation due to the unexpected/unavoidable circumstances (early exit to the NBA draft, injury/red shirt, etc.), but 11 of the 16 Big East teams going into this season can look to one of their three returning classes to contribute fewer than 20% of the minutes, with 7 programs having one class contribute less than 3% of the minutes. The distribution creates a young/old "bias" in some squads. While Georgetown and DePaul return nearly the same percentage of minutes, consider how they are distributed among the players on each squad. Had the two squads logged 9-9 records last season (and make no mistake here, I don't believe the two squads are comparable...) which would you be inclined to believe would have the better season in 2010? Georgetown's 0% senior class is unexpected, but unexpected given their 30.9/30.0/39.1 "balance" going into the 2009 season. That balance by the way, did not help them at all as the Hoyas' 15-3 2008 record dropped to 7-11 in 2009. What happened to that anticipated 30.0% "senior" class is part of a phenomena that is little noted by the media. Back in 2007 Coach Thompson brought in 3 well regarded freshmen, none of whom will finish their eligibility at Georgetown. DaJuan Summers left early for the NBA (June of 2009), while Jeremiah Rivers and Vernon Macklin both transferred out after the 2008 season. And of the 4 members of the class that entered in 2006, only Jesse Sapp finished at Georgetown. The other three, Marc Egerson, Octavius Spann and Josh Thornton all transferred. A junior walk-on, Byron Jansen, did play 2 seasons with Sapp. The number of programs with very uneven distributions however, is not unusual. In 2008, the number of squads that had a class with <20% of the minutes numbered 14. And of those who had a class contribute 3% or less, the number was also 7. One squad (DePaul!) in fact had 2 classes that contributed <20%.

So, Does Experience Matter?
If the results from last season are a reliable measure, the answer is mixed, squads with a bias towards seniors did not uniformly do better than other, "younger" squads last season, nor in some cases, were they able to improve significantly on their records from the previous (2007) season. Notable "flops" included Notre Dame, a squad that returned 85.8% of their 2008 minutes, just over half (54.3%) of which came from seniors alone, which nevertheless dropped from 14-4 to 8-10, a surprisingly large margin for a single season, especially given the experience level of the returning squad. The value of Rob Kurz perhaps? Rutgers, another squad that returned 86.1% of it's 2008 minutes, just over half of which (50.7%) came from seniors, may have improved one spot in the final standings, but actually won one fewer game in 2009, going from 3-15 to 2-16. For other squads however, luck (the dumb damned kind, not the Pythagorean kind) comes into play. Marquette fielded a squad that returned 80.1% of their 2008 minutes, fully 62.6% of those minutes coming from seniors, was 12-2 on February 25, bearing down on a 14-4/15-3 Big East record when, 4:00 minutes into their home game against the UConn Huskies, their senior point guard Dominic James went down with an ankle injury. James was essentially finished for the season (and his career at Marquette). The Golden Eagles dropped their last 4 regular season games, finishing 12-6. Pittsburgh's seniors accounted for 54.7% of the squad's returning minutes (66.3% of their 2008 minutes returned) and led the squad to an Elite Eight finish, the longest NCAA run in Coach Jamie Dixon's tenure. The Providence squad returned 84.3% of their 2008 minutes, 50.6% of those minutes comming from seniors who led the Friars to their second NIT in the last 4 years.

The converse also showed mixed results. True DePaul, returning only 49% of their 2008 minutes (and 14.9% of those minutes coming from seniors) did not win a regular season Big East conference game, but Syracuse returned 81.1% of the minutes from a 2008 squad that finished 9-9 (and out of the NCAA) with a senior contribution of 1.1% for their 2009 season. That Orange squad won 11 Big East games and ran to the Sweet Sixteen in the NCAAs. The Pirates of Seton Hall returned 51.9% of their 2008 minutes (10.3% from seniors) and finished with identical records (Big East and overall) in 2009.

Still to Resolve...
It is obvious that a transfer or JUCO player is more experienced than a true (or red shirt) freshman, but how much more experienced? A red shirt freshman has (injury red shirts excepted) practiced with the team and participated in the athletic program short of logging game time. That some number of coaches value the experience of a JUCO (or a transfer) over the additional years of eligibility offered by a true (or red shirt) freshman is obvious. It is nearly self evident that JUCOs provide short-term help to a program, but balanced against the prospect of a 4 year career, is the immediate experience worth the loss of the additional 2 years?

Coaching Carousal Part 7 -- 5 Years Out

Graveyard of Coaches?
I was perusing Ken Pomoroy's Blog the other day (looking up an entry about experience...) when I came across an old coaching carousal post from 2004, "Graveyard of Coaches", in which Pomeroy identified and commented briefly on eight recent (to 2004) coaching vacancies. I read the post with interest, initially two of the openings he wrote about, St. John's and Georgetown, both of the Big East, caught my eye (and peaked my curiousity). Ironically, he wrote that of the eight (Auburn, Georgetown, Houston, Miami (FLA), St. John's, Southern Mississippi, UNLV and Utah), the Johnnies, in his opinion, offered the best position. One of the three interviewees he identified, Norm Roberts, did get the job. His review of the other schools (he correctly identified John Thompson III as the leading candidate...JT3 was offered the job and accepted; the rest is history) gave me 2 small surprises (one of them was not that Roberts still had the Red Storm job)...
1. Of the 8 coaches, only Ray Giacoletti, hired by Utah in April of 2004, is no longer with the school. Particularly Surprising given that Giacoletti had a pretty good (117-83 .585) record going in, and of those 8 coaches, he probably had the best 1st season, compiling a 29-6 record on his way to a Sweet Sixteen finish. Yet after 2 subsequent sub .500 seasons, Giacoletti announced his resignation (effective at the end of the season) 2 games short of the 2007 off season.
2. After panning Houston's decision to hire Tom Penders, Pomeroy moved on to review Houston's CUSA Conference mate Southern Mississippi. He began with a throwaway line -- "It will be interesting to see where Houston and USM are in five years..." -- as he turned to review Southern Mississippi's hire, ex-Iowa Coach Larry Eustachy.

The line caught me by surprise, as this off season was in fact the 5th since those two were hired. It has been 5 years and 4 months since Pomeroy posted that entry, time to take the long view...

How Did They Do?
Pomeroy's point of contrast is that while Larry Eustachy's faults flowed from regrettable personal choices (and judgements), Tom Pender had left every program he led in worse shape than he found it. Would the same hold true for these two on their CUSA stop?

	Overall			CUSA
	W	L	Pct	W	L	Pct	Hi Finish	Post?
Tom Penders	101	60	0.627	49	29	0.628	3rd 2X	NIT 2X
Larry Eustachy	71	69	0.507	25	41	0.379	4th 2X	No

Pender's last best conference finish was 2007-08 when the Cougars finished 3rd in CUSA with a 11-7 conference record and 23-9 overall. Their work earned them a bid to the inaugural CBI tournament where they ran to the semi-final round. The Cougars of the pre-Pender Era had a single winning conference record since joining CUSA in 1997. Penders has reeled off 5 winning (if not elite-level) seasons since 2005. He turned 64 this past May, and has been noticeably absent from candidate short lists the past 2-3 seasons, an indication his job chasing days may be at an end.

Eustachy has not been able to recapture the lightening from his early years at Iowa State. In the 5 seasons prior to his arrival in Hattisburg, the Golden Eagles had a single winning conference record, but it was a good one, earning them a 1st place and NIT bid. Eustachy has managed a conference record that hovers at the .500 point...just a touch on the up side. His success has come after a rocky start. Especially disappointed in the Golden Eagles' 2009 season, Eustachy returned a $25,000 bonus.

Penders made his teams through transfers and JUCOs, a pattern he has continued at Houston. The Cougars will return 3 starters (2 All Conference), 3 rotation players and 8 new players, including 3 JUCOs. Eustachy's Southern Miss team will return 4 starters and 3 rotation players, 7 total. Eustachy adds at least 4 others (according to the CUSA site, 8 others) 3 of whom come from the JUCO ranks.

Puerto Rico Tip-Off Revisited -- 1st Round Games Announced

The organizers for the O'Reilly Auto Parts officially announced the 1st round game opponents and times, even as they posted a more detailed bracket (suitable for download). From the draw, it looks as if I was right on 3 of the 4 top seeds (and the top 2). Villanova (#1 seed), Kansas State (#2 seed) and Georgia Tech (I had the jackets as a #3, the organizers made them #4) were the good calls. The organizers opted for an all power conference upper bracket, giving the nod to the Rebels (Indiana would have been a hard stretch...), dropping consensus Top 25 (and A10 favorite?) Dayton to the #5 seed. The seeds then look like this:

Team	Seed
Villanova	1
Kansas State	2
Mississippi	3
Georgia Tech	4
Dayton	5
Indiana	6
Boston U	7
George Mason	8

The Big East designated again as the tournament host, so the Wildcats need pack only their home unis for the trip.

Puzzling that George Mason was chosen to play Villanova in the first round. Maybe there is some truth to rumors that Boston U and Villanova are negotiating a home game (for the Wildcats) for this season. There are still 2 TBD opponents in the Wildcat's 2009-10 schedule.

2010 Transfers/JUCOs -- 10 to Watch

Changing Times
The Big East (with a few institutional exceptions) has been slow to embrace transfers & JUCO players. A new coach eager to rebuild quickly or a veteran coach looking for that last piece of the puzzle (Andrew Gaze of Seton Hall/PJ Carlesimo and Walter Berry of St. John's/Louie Carnesecca come to mind). The expansion of 2006 however, may have changed everything. Cincinnati and St. John's, both recovering from disastrous coaching transitions reached early and often into the JUCO ranks to restock quickly (with different levels of success). Coaching transitions at South Florida and and Marquette have sent Stan Haith and Buzz Williams to 2 year schools all over the Great Plains and East Coast for players who will fill gaps created by transfers, graduations and decommitted High School bballers. The trend is not limited to rebuilding programs or new coaches, over the period 2008-2010, nearly 30 JUCO/transfers, at least one for every team in the conference will suit up to play. Even Connecticut's Jim Calhoun, sensing that junior Hasheem Thabeet was ready last season inked 7-1, 255 lbs Charles Okwandu from Harkum Junior College, and Georgetown's John Thompson III, attempting to staunch the outward flow of players, brought in 2 DI transfers over the course of his tenure (Patrick Ewing from Indiana & Julian Vaughn from Florida State). Okwandu will team with entering 6-8 freshman Alex Oriakhi to anchor the low post.

Ten to Watch...
Success for the ten here will, I suspect, translate into success for their new teams.

Name	Pos.	Hgt	Wgt	From	To
James Beatty	1	6-3	190	Miami-Dade CC	Rutgers
Dwight Buycks	2	6-2	180	Indian Hills	Marquette
Jarrid Famous	5	6-10	240	Westchester	South Florida
Ben Hansbrough	2	6-3	205	Mississippi St.	Notre Dame
Wesley Johnson	3	6-7	198	Iowa State	Syracuse
Darius Johnson-Odom	1/2	6-2	200	Hutchinson	Marquette
Taylor King	3/4	6-6	230	Duke	Villanova
Keon Lawrence	1	6-2	175	Missouri	Seton Hall
Scott Martin	2	6-8	200	Purdue	Notre Dame
Herb Pope	4	6-8	235	New Mexico State	Seton Hall

Statistics for JUCOs are very uneven; I have located baseline numbers for only Jarrid Famous (Westchester CC) and Darius Johnson-Odom (Hutchinson CC). A quick look at those numbers...

				FTA
Player	%Min	eFG%	PPWS	FGA
Jarrid Famous	88.3	59.3	1.25	66.4
Darius Johnson-Odom	81.3	55.5	1.22	55.0

Jarrid Famous will man the low post alongside senior Alex Sanchez, becoming the latest in a line of South Florida #5s who stretch back to the Bull's 1st season in the Big East. Gus Gilchrist will step out to face the basket as a #4, giving South Florida an inside presence as imposing as Cincinnati (or Connecticut in the 1990s). Scoring will come from rising sophomore) Dominique Jones (among others), so Famous will not have to become a "go-to guy" right away, a luxury Marquette's point guard-in-waiting, Darius Johnson-Odom, will be pressed to avoid. No doubt returning #4 Lazar Hayward and incoming JUCO Dwight Buycks, out of Indian Hills CC in Iowa, but after returning junior Jimmy Butler, the Golden Eagles will need to find both another scoring option, and a good point guard to set the table. Johnson-Odom comes in with true freshman Junior Cadougan, who (no doubt the point guard of the future) may be ready to split the duties next season. Buycks was the Warriors (Indian Hills, but maybe the same will be said for Marquette next season) high scorer in 2009, named to the to the All-Region first team. Rutgers lost the services of reliable (if unspectacular) Anthony Farmer with the close of the 2009 season. Coach Hill's 2008 experiment using (rising sophomore) Corey Chandler was not successful. In the event that (rising sophomore) Mike Coburn is not able to step up effectively, Miami-Dade CC's James Beatty, a late signee for the Scarlet Knights, should do fine. Coach Hill is not looking for a shoot-first pg, he has (rising freshman) Mike Rosario to fill it up. What he needs is an assist-oriented pg who can find an open man (or Rosario if all else fails), and Beatty should be able to do that (and take a shot once in a while himself).

Stats for DI transfers is much easier to come by. And if the transfer played more than 10% of the time at his position before transferring out, Ken Pomeroy has extrapolated the raw data to develop possession-based stats for the players as well...

Player	%Min	ORtg	%Poss	%Shots	eFG%	PPWS	OR%	FTRate
Pope	27.4	88.4	27.7	26.8	46.2	0.94	8.7	39.2
Johnson	56.2	96.1	27.0	29.6	47.7	1.03	5.8	26.7
King	24.2	111.9	24.0	30.2	55.6	1.12	7.6	19.1
Martin	51.1	97.9	23.8	23.2	43.1	0.98	7.0	49.8
Lawrence	72.0	99.0	20.3	21.2	49.3	1.04	3.1	21.5
Hansbrough	73.1	113.8	15.5	16.8	54.7	1.16	2.3	30.1

The players are presented in "%Poss" order, suggesting the role they assumed at their previous stop. Their %Poss should be taken with "%Min" to develop a fairly good perspective on how significantly the player functioned within the former team's framework. Notre Dame needs a 3 point shooter to step into Kyle McAlarney's shoes. Actually they need two -- no one really flled Colin Fall's shoes last season. Scott Martin and Ben Hansbrough, along with several returning Irish players, will get an opportunity to show what they can do. Of the two, Martin might be the better candidate (though his 3 point production on the 2007 Purdue team was comparable to Tory Jackson's production on the 2009 Notre Dame team. Martin's playing time (51.1% of the minutes on the Boilermaker wing), coupled with his possessions and shots suggest he can play a 2nd/3rd option on offense. Hansbrough, more efficient scorer when he played at Mississippi State than Martin was at Purdue, will have to adjust to playing a more prominant role in the offense. As a Bull Dog Hansbrough operated (and excelled) as the 4th/5th option on offense. Can he do as well if the defense knows he is likely to get the ball? The Irish fortunes may well hang on how well those two can convert their opportunities into points. The path for Seton Hall's and Syracuse's seems far more certain. Both were "significant contributors" at their last stop (New Mexico State and Iowa State repsectively) and well regarded coming out of High School. Since taking the reins in South Orange, Pirate head coach Bobby Gonzalaz has watched his undersized but quick and speedy defense-oriented teams come out of the gate strong to begin the Big East season, only to fade by late February. Pope promises both size (and an inside threat to match wing guard Jeremy Hazell) and stamina. Syracuse also lacked size at the #3. Guard/forward Paul Harris was too good to sit, but possessed a skill set completely at odds with what the Orange needed. Johnson will fit better, his skills and personality should be oil (rather than sand) in the Syracuse machine.

Player	%Min	DR%	ARate	TORate	Blk%	Stl%
Herb Pope	27.4	21.6	13.4	24.9	3.1	2.3
Wesley Johnson	56.2	10.9	13.4	17.6	1.5	2.0
Taylor King	24.2	14.9	8.2	12.8	3.8	1.8
Scott Martin	51.1	14.7	13.4	17.2	3.6	2.6
Keon Lawrence	72.0	9.7	14.3	19.3	1.8	1.7
Ben Hansbrough	73.1	9.1	14.0	17.7	0.2	1.8

The path for Seton Hall's Keon Lawrence and Villanova's Taylor King is less certain, as each finds others starting ahead of them. Lawrence, the 3rd leading scorer for Missouri back in 2008, may find his time rotating on to the court when either (rising junior) point guard Eugene Harvey or (rising sophomore) Jeremy Hazell need to rest. For King, the road to the starting 5 may come as much from circumstances (he, unlike the true freshmen, has had a year of practice to learn Coach Wright's defensive system) and events (Reggie Redding...). While reknowned for his shot (see his eFG% and PPWS above), King may learn the fastest way to the staff's heart (and the court) is to learn to use his height (6-6+) and body (230 lbs) to become a rebounding demon. With an offensive rebounding rate of 7.6 and a defensive rebounding rate of 14.9, King is very close to being there. The Wildcat's will need rebounders who can hit their shots (not shooters who rebound whenever they can get around to it...).

And Then There is...
Not listed among the ten, but nevertheless worth noting include Casey Mitchell late of Chipola JC who will continue his career at West Virginia under Bob Huggins. Mitchell, a scoring machine for the Indians, was recognized as the JUCO Player of the Year in 2009, but will most likely split time on the wing with Devin Ebanks and D'Sean Butler, unless suspended guards Joe Mazzulla and Truck Bryant are not re-instated. Then Mitchell (along with the Ebanks and several "deeper rotation" players) may garner some consideration for handling the point guard duties. St. John's-bound Dwight Hardy, a 6-2, 170 lbs Indian Hills CC teammate of Dwight Buycks was the Warrior's 2nd scoring option and known for several 3 point eruptions in 2009. He may, if he can break into a Red Storm wing rotation that will include sophomore Quincy Roberts and juniors Paris Horne and DJ Kennedy, have an opportunity to do the same for the Johnnies. Hardy did a stint or two at the point for Indian Hills, so he may find some time spelling Maalik Boothe. Keno Davis took over a program dominated by graduating seniors and he led them back to the NIT in 2009. The 2010 Friars have needs to fill however, so Russ Permenter, a 6-9, 229lb #3 (out of Temple College, TX) and Kyle Wright, a 6-6 guard out of Monroe JC (by way of Stony Brook and Colorado) should get their opportunity to help Providence next season.

The Bearcat logjam in the front court will be a bit worse next season as heralded 4/5 Ibrahima Thomas, a 6-11 sophomore out of Oklahoma State comes to the Queen City. Thomas, perhaps unnerved by Coach Travis Ford's intense approach to his players and the prospect of always playing with his back to the basket, decided to leave Cowboy country for the banks of the Ohio River. Coach Cronin will run a rotation through the 4/5 that includes Anthony McClain, Yancy Gates, Steven Toyloy and Rashad Bishop, will also have to find time for Thomas.

Possession-based stats were gleaned from Ken Pomeroy's website, an invaluable resource. Stats for Jarrid Famous and Darius Johnson-Odom are based on stats gleaned from their previous schools (Westchester CC and Hutchinson JC).

Looking at 3 Year Trends

The Truth About Returning Minutes
Returning minutes is not an especially effective predictor of a team's finish in the conference. After compiling the returning percentages from 2008 and comparing them to the winning percentages (overall and conference) from 2009, I was a little disappointed (but not surprised) to see that teams with higher returning minutes did not necessarily finish consistently at/near the top of the conference, or even higher than those with smaller percentage of returning minutes. True Villanova's 2009 finish (#4 in the Big East) was better than it's 2008 finish (#8), but with the highest percentage of returning players (all classes) why didn't the Wildcats finish higher? Returning minutes it turns out, is not an especially reliable when trying to predict where a team will rank relative to other teams in the conference, but it does have some value as a predictor -- for some teams (about ½ of the teams in the conference) -- for whether a team will improve it's win percentage from one season to the next. Plotting returning minutes and winning percentages over the three seasons after the Big East expanded, indicated that Connecticut, DePaul, Georgetown, Providence, Syracuse (loosely), Villanova and West Virginia there appeared, from the data of 2007, 2008 and 2009, that the winning percentages for those seasons moved in the same direction (and fairly close in some cases) and same rate as returning minutes. Villanova operates a relatively complicated defensive system that takes freshmen time to master. The same may well be true for Georgetown and (John Beilein's) West Virginia, both of whom implement multiple-option offensive systems. West Virginia under Beilein was notorious for routinely red shirting freshmen to given the recruits a season to practice within Beilein's framwork. For DePaul the relationship reveals an uncomfortable truth, that as Coach Wainwright works through his legacy players, and the returning minutes decline (as he fails to replace those players with good recruits of his own), so too does the winning percentage decline. For Syracuse, the relationship may be tied to the rising and falling numbers of players who leave early for the NBA. If the trend holds through next season, the declin of returning minutes for Connecticut, Providence, Syracuse and Villanova mean bad news for each team's fortunes next season. For DePaul, Georgetown and West Virginia the news is good, as each should see their returning minutes increase, and so their prospects.

Contrary Trends?
For three teams, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh and St. John's, the two rates seem to move in opposite directions. For St. John's & Notre Dame fans, this trend, if it holds, will spell another "down year" for the Johnnies and the Fighting Irish. While for the Panther Nation, a stronger season, coming even as quality point guard and stud paint player DaJuan Blair move on, would enhance Coach Jamie Dixon's reputation as a recruiter (...talent evaluator) and program manager. And especially frustrating for Big East analysts who uniformly tab St. John's and Notre Dame as teams who should improve their standing in 2010, even as Pittsburgh takes a step back.

Reggie Redding Arrested

At this time in the off season, if it were not for bad news there would be no news at all. Rising senior guard Reggie Redding was arrested for possession of an undisclosed (but according to the Daily News account, "...a small...") amount of marijuana and drug paraphernalia early this morning. Villanova Public Safety officers noted a damaged sign on campus and notified Radnor Township Police. A search of dorm parking lots turned up a damaged car that was traced to Redding.

The Villanova University Student Handbook indicates students caught using or possessing marijuana face punishments ranging from "...disciplinary probation plus an automatic fine of $750.00, up to and including suspension or expulsion from the University...". The Villanovan Sports Blog published a statement issued by Coach Jay Wright and Villanova University.

Redding, coming off a very productive Big East and post season run, was poised to contribute substantially to next season's teams.

2009 Puerto Rico Tip Off -- An Early Look

Reviewing the Field
The field for the O'Rielly Auto Parts Puerto Rico Tip Off was announced in May via a press release, relatively early compared to the 2008 Philly Classic, which did not announce all eight teams in the field until the middle of July (not an official announcement incidently, but instead a note in Jeff Goodman's blog). The Philly Classic did not formally announce the brackets and games until nearly the beginning of the season, leaving the individual teams to announce their preliminary round games as part of the press released of their team schedule. The Puerto Rico Tip Off tournament, sponsored by O'Rielly Auto Parts and televised by ESPN, is a bit ahead of several other early season invitationals, but they have still not announced the seeds and early round pairings. Rumors suggest a press release, within the next 2 weeks, will set the brackets and quarter final round games, so I think now would be a good time to take a look at the field and speculate a bit about the seeds and 1st round (the quarter final round...) pairings.

	2009 Season							2009
	Record			Rankings		Conference		Post
Team	W	L	Pct	RPI	Pom	Affil	Rank	Season
Boston U	17	13	0.567	161	166	Am East	17	NA
Dayton	27	8	0.771	27	78	A10	9	NCAA/Rd 2
George Mason	22	11	0.667	51	88	CAA	14	NIT/Rd 1
Georgia Tech	12	19	0.387	139	93	ACC	1	NA
Indiana	5	25	0.167	216	212	Big Ten	2	NA
Kansas State	20	11	0.645	80	44	Big 12	4	NIT/Rd 2
Mississippi	16	15	0.516	82	97	SEC	6	NA
Villanova	30	8	0.789	13	14	Big East	3	NCAA/FF

The alphabetically correct listing of the field identifies the participants, their 2009 overall record, rankings (RPI & Ken Pomeroy), conference affiliation (and the conference's RPI ranking) and any post season activity for the school. The tournament, relatively cosmopolitan -- 5 of the 6 power conferences have a representative -- nevertheless draws from those mid-major conferences located in the northeast and Middle Atlantic regions (the American East, Atlantic 10 and Colonial Athletic Association Conferences), relatively convenient travel for those fans who have an inclination to take in a 3 day Thanksgiving tournament.

The usual procedure for the tournament promoter is to seed the field to develop the brackets and subsequent matchups. The criteria for seeding? Most likely the RPI/Pomeroy rankings or the team's 2009 record (and post season record) will be used to sort out the field. Seeding by RPI or Pomeroy's Ratings would set the field in this way...

	Seed by...
Team	RPI	Pom
Villanova	1	1
Dayton	2	3
George Mason	3	4
Kansas St.	4	2
Mississippi	5	6
Georgia Tech	6	5
Boston U.	7	7
Indiana	8	8

Villanova will most likely be the #1 seed in the field, the Big East conference, 2009 record and finish (Final Four) are the strongest credentials in the field. I have a problem with Indiana as the #8 seed however (and frankly with Dayton as the #2 seed, even though the Flyers were a strong finisher last season and an early favorite to win the A10 this season...they are not a power conference team). A quarter final round game that matched Villanova and Indiana would have an interesting Big East story line, as Indiana Coach Tom Crean was the head coach at Marquette before moving over to take the Indiana job. Villanova coach Jay Wright has a 1-2 record versus Crean. That matchup however, is unlikely. Even though the Hoosiers will not be one of the top 4 teams, they will, with Georgetown transfer Jeremiah Rivers eligible this season and Top 100 recruits Christian Watford and Maurice Creek slated to suit up, will not be the weakest team in the field. Most likely Indiana, along with Boston U and George Mason will be seeded somewhere in the #5 through #8 (with the Hoosiers very unlikely to be seeded #8). Which means the Wildcats will most likely draw either Boston University or George Mason. Former Jay Wright (at Villanova) assistant Pat Chambers took over the coaching duties at Boston U, so again there is a story line for that matchup. Factoring in conference affiliation, 2009-10 projections and 2009 recruits, I suspect the seed will look something like this...

Seed	Team
1	Villanova
2	Kansas State
3	Georgia Tech
4	Dayton
5	Mississippi
6	George Mason
7	Indiana
8	Boston U.

The winner of Villanova/Boston U. (ok...Villanova) would face the winner of the Dayton/Mississippi game. As I wrote earlier, Dayton is an early favorite in the Atlantic 10 conference with Coach Brian Gregory returning a senior-dominated Flyer squad that went to the 2nd round of the 2009 NCAAs, notably taking down West Virginia of the Big East in the 1st round. The Flyers will be led by 4 of last season's returning starters, including 4 year starter 6-10 center Kurt Huelsman, A10 Honorable Mention (senior) guard Marcus Johnson and junior All A10 2nd team Chris Wright. Andy Kennedy's (coached a single season at Cincinnati) Mississippi team returns SEC freshman of the year Terrico White who also played on the Jamie Dixon-coached squad that won the U19 Championship in New Zealand this summer. Andy Kennedy's squad also boasts Nick Williams, an Indiana transfer who should be eligible for 2009-10. The Kansas State team will boast 4 returning starters from their 22-10 squad, and welcome Top 100 recruit Wally Judge. Georgia Tech Head Coach Paul Hewitt (another former Villanova assistant coach) will bring a Yellow Jacket squad that spotlights senior guard/forward D'Andre Bell, sophomore #1/#2 guard Iman Shumpert and 3rd team All ACC bf Gani Lawal. To this group Hewitt will add McDonald's and Parade Magazine All American Derrick Favors, a power forward who will team with Gani Lawal to form one of the ACC's dominant front courts in 2010.