Guest Contributor Ray Floriani: Houston Baptist at NJIT

by Ray Floriani

NEWARK, NJ - In a Great Western Conference meeting, Houston Baptist edged NJIT , the conference’s Eastern most school, 62-58 at the Prudential Center on Thursday.

In a 70 possession game (Houston Baptist 71 NJIT 68), the Efficiency and Factors:

			FTM
	ORtg	eFG%	FGA	OR%	TO%
Houston Bapt.	87	37	38	24	18
NJIT	85	46	11	36	27

Each media time out we were supplied with a box score. Did a run down of the time of the media time out, the score and offensive efficiency. For instance at 15:47 NJIT had an OE of 86 while Houston Baptist was 33.

Time	Scoring	O. Eff.
15:47	6-2 NJIT	86-33 NJIT
11:56	12-4 NJIT	86-31 NJIT
5:56	24-15 NJIT	100-58 NJIT
3:43	26-20 NJIT	90-65 NJIT
Half	31-22 NJIT	91-63 NJIT
14:58	37-34 HB	84-79 HB
11:07	41-39 HB	80-78 HB
7:20	45-44 HB	82-82
3:39	54-53 NJIT	87-83 NJIT
0:00	62-58 HB	87-85 HB

The appreciable damage was the first four minutes of the second half. Houston Baptist was the aggressor, shooting 4 of 6, forcing turnovers and going on a momentum altering 11-4 run.

Both team’s efficiencies were relatively close. NJIT certainly defended and rebounded well enough to win. Coach Jim Engles attributed the loss to a ‘lack of focus’ at key times. That was certainly evident in the 27% turnover rate. The foul line also hurt. The visiting Huskies went to the line more but also took advantage. They were 21 of 23 from the charity stripe while NJIT was 6 of 15. NJIT actually shot better from three 8 of 17 for 47% than they did from the line (40%).

In the stretch NJIT could not make he necessary stops. Andrew Gonzalez, a 6-6 forward and one of the conference’s marquee players did most of the damage with a game high 31 points. Ironically Gonzalez had the only two misses fro the line for his team but he did go 14 of 16 from the stripe. Isaiah Wilkerson led NJIT with 19 points.

Houston Baptist improved to 6-2 in the GWC (7-19 overall) while NJIT is 2-3 in conference and 7-15 on the season.

At the Rock

Prior to the men’s game the women of the respective schools had the opportunity to play at the Rock. Houston Baptist entered the game with 3 wins and a -30 efficiency margin so the outcome was not too surprising. NJIT rolled 72-46 in a 78 possession game.

			FTM
	ORtg	eFG%	FGA	OR%	TO%
Houston Bapt.	59	31	30	28	37
NJIT	94	45	43	39	29

NJIT jumped out to a 43-18 halftime lead and was never seriously threatened. Houston Baptist did not break down their conference stats on the game notes so I computed the overall numbers from 22 games. The Huskies entered with an offensive efficiency of 72 and a turnover rate of 32%. The efficiency was a little lower than normal and the TO rate, thanks to 29 turnovers, higher than their normally excessive average.

Jessica Gerald led NJIT with 22 points in 22 minutes as coach Margaret McKeon gave every one of her ten players at least 12 minutes of playing time. Houston Baptist had one double figure scorer, sophomore guard Taniqua Hollis with 10 points. Houston Baptist is now 3-20 and 1-7 in the GWC. NJIT is 9-12 and a challenging 4-1 in the conference.

In blowouts of this magnitude, NJIT led by 39 with just under 15 minutes left, the style of play often degenerates. Not so in NJIT’s case as they assisted on 64% (14 of 22) of their field goals. That added up to less one on one and more ball movement even with the outcome not in doubt.

Hospitality. From AD Lenny Kaplan on down the keynote at NJIT is hospitality. And that extends to the fans as well as media. On Thursday the NJIT staff took it a step farther. For the media pre-game meal in the press room they invited the NJIT cheer leading squad (pictured) to enjoy a bill of fare that included chicken parm and penne pasta. Bon apatite ladies.

A league of their own. Both coaches in the NJIT program are extremely happy with their respective teams now playing in a conference.

“It’s great because our kids follow the conference and will go online and check the other team’s results. They knew they had to be ready tonight with a big game (Texas-Pan American) on Saturday. - Women’s coach Margaret McKeon

“Being in a conference is great because now your players have a pre-conference part of their schedule. Once conference play and post season comes around that’s like two new seasons to look forward to.” - Men’s coach Jim Engles

The Pregame Meal

Coaching Carousal Part 7 -- 5 Years Out

Graveyard of Coaches?
I was perusing Ken Pomoroy's Blog the other day (looking up an entry about experience...) when I came across an old coaching carousal post from 2004, "Graveyard of Coaches", in which Pomeroy identified and commented briefly on eight recent (to 2004) coaching vacancies. I read the post with interest, initially two of the openings he wrote about, St. John's and Georgetown, both of the Big East, caught my eye (and peaked my curiousity). Ironically, he wrote that of the eight (Auburn, Georgetown, Houston, Miami (FLA), St. John's, Southern Mississippi, UNLV and Utah), the Johnnies, in his opinion, offered the best position. One of the three interviewees he identified, Norm Roberts, did get the job. His review of the other schools (he correctly identified John Thompson III as the leading candidate...JT3 was offered the job and accepted; the rest is history) gave me 2 small surprises (one of them was not that Roberts still had the Red Storm job)...
1. Of the 8 coaches, only Ray Giacoletti, hired by Utah in April of 2004, is no longer with the school. Particularly Surprising given that Giacoletti had a pretty good (117-83 .585) record going in, and of those 8 coaches, he probably had the best 1st season, compiling a 29-6 record on his way to a Sweet Sixteen finish. Yet after 2 subsequent sub .500 seasons, Giacoletti announced his resignation (effective at the end of the season) 2 games short of the 2007 off season.
2. After panning Houston's decision to hire Tom Penders, Pomeroy moved on to review Houston's CUSA Conference mate Southern Mississippi. He began with a throwaway line -- "It will be interesting to see where Houston and USM are in five years..." -- as he turned to review Southern Mississippi's hire, ex-Iowa Coach Larry Eustachy.

The line caught me by surprise, as this off season was in fact the 5th since those two were hired. It has been 5 years and 4 months since Pomeroy posted that entry, time to take the long view...

How Did They Do?
Pomeroy's point of contrast is that while Larry Eustachy's faults flowed from regrettable personal choices (and judgements), Tom Pender had left every program he led in worse shape than he found it. Would the same hold true for these two on their CUSA stop?

	Overall			CUSA
	W	L	Pct	W	L	Pct	Hi Finish	Post?
Tom Penders	101	60	0.627	49	29	0.628	3rd 2X	NIT 2X
Larry Eustachy	71	69	0.507	25	41	0.379	4th 2X	No

Pender's last best conference finish was 2007-08 when the Cougars finished 3rd in CUSA with a 11-7 conference record and 23-9 overall. Their work earned them a bid to the inaugural CBI tournament where they ran to the semi-final round. The Cougars of the pre-Pender Era had a single winning conference record since joining CUSA in 1997. Penders has reeled off 5 winning (if not elite-level) seasons since 2005. He turned 64 this past May, and has been noticeably absent from candidate short lists the past 2-3 seasons, an indication his job chasing days may be at an end.

Eustachy has not been able to recapture the lightening from his early years at Iowa State. In the 5 seasons prior to his arrival in Hattisburg, the Golden Eagles had a single winning conference record, but it was a good one, earning them a 1st place and NIT bid. Eustachy has managed a conference record that hovers at the .500 point...just a touch on the up side. His success has come after a rocky start. Especially disappointed in the Golden Eagles' 2009 season, Eustachy returned a $25,000 bonus.

Penders made his teams through transfers and JUCOs, a pattern he has continued at Houston. The Cougars will return 3 starters (2 All Conference), 3 rotation players and 8 new players, including 3 JUCOs. Eustachy's Southern Miss team will return 4 starters and 3 rotation players, 7 total. Eustachy adds at least 4 others (according to the CUSA site, 8 others) 3 of whom come from the JUCO ranks.

Houston Baptist Post Game: Cupcakes

The opening tipoff was won by Villanova. The Huskies hung with the Wildcats for 0:57 seconds, until Scottie Reynolds broke a 0-0 tie with a jumper. And for HB it was all downhill from there. After Nova scored 8 unanswered points the Huskies put their first points on the board. They drew to 11-8 and then Villanova went on a 19-1 tear and never looked back. Chris over at IBBW noted that "...There wasn't much to this game at all...'Nova finished with 5 men in double figures and shot the ball well...it's hard to make any real judgements on the team from this game...". And indeed it would appear to be true, given the scoring differential and the liberal use of substitutes. Nova News Blog's Tim said it all with his post title -- "Nova Destroys HB"...

The Official website published the AP wirestory, which duly noted Scottie's season high point haul. Mike Sheridan published another edition of his Post Game Notes feature, and the official box score was up pretty quickly. The box by halves...

Opponent	Houston Baptist
	1st	2nd	Game
Pace	36.4	31.1	67.5
	Offense				Defense
	1st	2nd	Game		1st	2nd	Game
Rating	131.9	144.7	137.9		60.4	112.5	84.4
eFG%	68.8	65.2	67.3		43.5	64.3	53.4
TORate	16.7	12.7	14.8		37.9	22.8	31.1
OR%	33.3	30.8	32.0		11.8	33.3	20.7
FTA/FGA	12.5	78.3	40.0		17.4	66.7	40.9
FTM/FGA	12.5	65.2	34.5		8.7	38.1	22.7
ARate	45.0	72.7	54.8		62.5	60.0	61.1
Blk%	0.0	8.7	3.6		4.3	0.0	2.3
Stl%	2.8	9.5	5.9		19.0	9.8	14.8
PPWS	1.42	1.43	1.42		0.88	1.27	1.08

Believe It or Not!
The defense limited the Huskies to 0.84 points per possession, but that will most likely hurt their Defensive Rating! It is their own fault...the 'Cats held HB to a very robust 60.4 (that is 0.604 points per possession) for the first half, but note (table above) that they could not keep the pressure up in the second half. The Huskies' improved their eFG% substantially complements of senior forward Baron Sauls, who hit a very unlikely 6-6 from behind the line. Sauls was responsible for 30% of the Huskies' FGAs and 60% of their FGMs for the half. Villanova's defensive effort fell off across the board -- eFG%, turnovers (TO%), offensive rebounding (OR%) and getting to the line (FTA/FGA). The dropoff resembles the defensive dropoff in the Monmouth game. A fall off in interest or the product of significant adjustments made in the HB locker room at the half? Maybe...

Observations
1. HB was not world beater on the offensive boards, but they were within the upper 2/3s of D1 (the 65th percentile...). Villanova killed them on their offensive boards, limiting the Huskies to 20.7 for the game, after suffocating them with a 11.8% rebound rate in the first half. That rate beats the #1 ranked Brigham Young by 8%...
2. The Huskies lost nearly 4 in 10 possessions in the first half (37%). Like offensive rebounding, the 'Cats were unable to extend the pressur through the second half. But that 22.8 turnover rate for the second half would rank in the low 100s (#105). Still pretty strong. The letup in eFG% hurt the overall defensive rating.
3. Clark, Cunningham and Pena maintained the front court presence for this game. Shane and Dante shot enough to maintain status as 2nd/3rd offensive option. Antonio scored 10 points, the fifth time in eight games this season.
4. Corey Fisher met his season average for points again last night. Fisher who averages 11.4 points per game posted 12 points. He continued his own rebounding tear by grabbing boards (1 offensive, 2 defensive) to go with his 3 assists.

Ref Notes
Chris Beaver, Bernard Clinton and Mike Stuart were nearly invisible in the first half, blowing a total of 12 fouls and doling out 5 trips to the line. Someone must have said something at halftime (or the teams got very tired...), because the whistled a total of 22 fouls in the second half, good for a total of 32 FTAs. At 34 total fouls, this contest was among the more civil ones this season.

Roster Notes
Villanova --
1. Dwayne Anderson was DNP "Coach's decision" tonight. Coach Wright reported that the pain from the Penn game was not a re-injury, but rather soreness from lack of use.

Preview -- Houston Baptist

The Wildcats host the Houston Baptist Huskies Thursday night at the Pavilion. After weathering a transition period of 2 seasons, Houston Baptist will play a 29 game D1 schedule this season.

Frontcourt vs frontcourt...
HB has started junior transfer Mario Flaherty (6-9, 230lbs) and senior forward Gordon Watt (6-6, 225lbs) a Purdue transfer in all six previous games. They will most likely start versus the Wildcats. Senior forward Demetrius Judge (6-6, 195lbs), a Mobley Area CC graduate started 3 games and has seen minutes (albeit diminishing minutes...) in the other three games as well. Andy Dillon (6-4, 215lbs) has also seen the court. Gordon Watt is the #1 front court scoring option. He typically takes more than a quarter of Houston's FGAs when he is on the court. He was fairly efficient in HB's first few games, but as defenses have begun to focus on him, his numbers have declined.

The 'Cats will start Dante Cunningham and Antonio Pena, much as they have in their seven previous games. Cunningham is coming off of a string of 3 outstanding games, in which he recorded double-doubles in two of them. Pena may be struggling a bit, but will most likely have a great game against the Husky front court. Shane Clark and Frank Tchuisi should also see large amount

Backcourt vs backcourt...
Senior Baron Sauls (6-2, 180lbs), a transfer from Texas Arlington, has started every game. Sophomore Fred Hinnenkamp (6-7, 187lbs), along with seniors Sean Morris (5-10, 180lbs) and Justin Wilson (5-6, 170lbs -- not a typo), a Texas Southern transfer, have split the other starts. Seniors Joe Atang (5-10, 180lbs), Andrew Puzyk (6-3, 185lbs) a JUCO out of Blinn JC, and Jimmy Sanders (6-4, 205lbs), a Kings Point transfer, have all seen minutes at the #2 and #3. Sauls and Wilson seem to be splitting the duties at point. Sauls, Puzyk and Morris generate offense that comes out of the backcourt.

Villanova will start Scottie Reynolds, Corey Fisher and most likely Corey Stokes. Corey Fisher was named to the Philly Classic All-Tournament team, and continued his good run through the Penn game Tuesday night. Reynolds and Stokes

Houston Baptist By the Numbers...
Houston Baptist has been playing for about 71.9 possessions per game, a bit above the D1 average pace team this season adjusted, according to Ken Pomeroy's Houston Baptist Scout Page which ranks the Huskies #44 out of approx. 348 - the current average for pace is 68.7. A four factors comparison of Houston Baptist's and Villanova's offense/defense (and defense/offense) shows...

When Houston Baptist has the ball...
				FTA
	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FGA
Husky O	44.9	24.7	31.4	25.8
'Cat D	42.1	22.7	28.1	36.0

Houston Baptist's offensive efficiency (93.2, adjusted) is ranked #248 by Ken Pomeroy. Villanova has routinely held opponents in the 40s. Houston Baptist breaking 50 points in a 60 possession game with Nova would be a an "offensive win" for the Huskies. Of the four factors listed, HB ranks lower than 200 in 3 (eFG, TO% & OR%). A Wildcat offense to Husky defense comparison is even more striking...

When Villanova has the ball...
				FTA
	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FGA
'Cat O	52.0	18.4	42.8	34.7
Husky D	56.1	18.2	40.5	37.3

HB's defensive rating, 120.7 (adjusted) ranks them #341 in the D1 pecking order. The Huskies are ranked #288 or lower in 3 (again, eFG, TO% & OR%) of the four factors. HB has particular difficulty stopping close in scoring (2FGAs). Expect another big night for Dante Cunningham.

Finally...
This was the last game revealed in Villanova's 2008-09 schedule. The timing of the announcement and the placement of the game suggest this was a last minute arrangement, most likely the consequence of a failed negotiation.

Coach Wright has, with the exception of the Rhode Island game, rotated at least 10 players through the game, often allocating 10 or more minutes to between 7 and 9 of those players. The staff may give every player on the bench some PT against the Huskies, with almost all getting >10 minutes.

The game most likely will be played for about 68 possessions, close to the D1 average. An offensive/defensive comparison projects about a 40 point margin of victory, but the staff has shown an aversion to running up the score, and the team has "lost focus" when the point differential grows beyond 30 - 35. This one will likely not go beyond the low 30s.

Roster Notes...
Villanova --
1. Dwayne Anderson saw limited play against the Quakers for his first action this season. He moved with a noticible limp at the end of his run, the staff speculating that it most likely was soreness from inaction. Hopefully the staff will hold him out of this game.