Ireland 2010 -- Pitt Downs Dart Killister 88-62, Goes to 4-0

Dart Killister is Good
The University of Pittsburgh downed the Dart Killister Club Team, 88-62 at Dublin City University, as the Panthers closed out the Dublin leg of their three city Irish Tour. While Pittsburgh ran their record to 4-0, Dart Killister was the closest game of the tour so far. You can find the official boxscore (lacking player minutes again) and an AP-style game recap/story if you click on the links. The recap provides a good description of the scoring runs. Gilbert Brown (per the article) received the game ball for his performance (14 points). The scoring by quarters...

	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	Total
Pittsburgh	19	20	20	29	88
Dart Killister	16	14	20	12	62

The game was "off script" early as Dart Killister jumped out to a 14-9 lead early in the first quarter. The Panthers closed the quarter out with a 10-2 run, but Dart Killister kept it close throughout the second quarter, conceding only another six points before the half. Pitt was on the good side of a 39-30 score at the mid-point. That third quarter blitz which has become something of a tour staple in Pittsburgh's first three games, did not materialize. Worse, the 20-20 draw marked the first time through three games (and the first quarter of the fourth game -- 13 quarters) that Pitt did not "win" the quarter. Still holding a nine point lead (59-50) going into the fourth quarter Coach Dixon's squad put the pedal down and blew out a 29-12 scoring margin to put the game away, 88-62. This game was played for over just over 80 possessions (80.2), about 14 possessions higher than the pace shown by Jamie Dixon-coached teams. The efficiencies and Oliver's four factors:

						FTA
	Pace	ORtg	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FGA	PPWS
Pittsburgh	80.2	109.7	49.3	24.9	53.8	30.6	1.36
Dart Killister		77.3	47.2	29.9	19.4	37.7	1.00

Was the score close because of a breakdown on Pitts' offense or defense (or both)? The ORtg's (109.7 vs 77.3) say Pitt's offense had problems. The Panthers' eFG%, 49.3 -- the first time it was below 54.0 on the tour -- suggest their shots were not dropping. A quick check of the box score shows the first half (quarters 1 & 2) were especially brutal as the Panthers went 16-38 overall (and 0-3 on three pointers). Dart Killister had problems of their own, as suggested by their 77.3 ORtg. While their shooting, inefficient, but not significantly worse than Pittsburgh's (47.2 vs Pitts' 49.3), but they were largely limited to one field goal attempt (if they got it) per trip, as their offensive rebounding, 19.4, meant they would get a second chance on about one in five misses. While Pitt did not shoot much better, they had the benefit, by virtue of grabbing nearly 1 in 2 of their misses, of several tries before relinquishing the ball to a Dart Killister defender. Dart Killister's turnover rate, 29.9 further cut into their shooting opportunities. .

Notes
1. The rotation again went 14 deep, as the staff started freshmen Cameron Wright and Lamar Patterson along side veterans Nasir Robinson, Dante Taylor (who logged his second double-double of the tour) and Travon Woodall (who dished a team-high, tied with Brad Wannamaker) five assists to go with his four points.
2. Dart Killister's Jermaine Turner scored a game-high 27 points while two Panthers, Dante Taylor and Gilbert Brown tied for the team-high 14 points in leading Pittsburgh. Brown notched double digit points in both Dublin matches.
3. As the OR%s suggest, Pittsburgh crushed their Irish opponents for the fourth straight game. The raw numbers (21-29-50 vs 7-18-25) are telling. Nasir Robingson (3-2-5), Dante Taylor (6-4-10) and Talib Zanna (3-1-4) were particularly effective on the offensive boards.

Next
Pittsburgh will take another day to see the sights, after a morning practice, and use early Friday to travel to Belfast for the last leg of their tour. The Panthers will play the Melbourne (Australia) Tigers at the Odyssey Arena in Belfast Friday night (8:30pm Ireland time). The Melbourne Tigers recently signed Eric Devendorf of Syracuse University, who completed his first season of pro ball in New Zealand in June in what promises to be an interesting reunion of sorts for the Big East players.

College Basketball Prospectus Due Out November 1

It's Baaaack!
According to John Gasaway's announcement over at Basketball Prospectus, both the Pro and College editions should be out just before the season officially tips off. The big news is that the staff will cover all 347 Division 1 teams and 32 conferences. I really liked the digital version last year. Being able to pay and download really satisfied my need for immediate gratification. I have never been particularly patient.

Ireland 2010 -- Pitt Rolls, 110-61, Over Team Ireland

Twice in Three Days
The University of Pittsburgh met the Irish National Team for the second time, this time on the court at Dublin City University, and swept their series with Team Ireland with a convincing 110-61 score. This brings the Panthers' Irish Tour record to 3-0. The Pittsburgh basketball site has the official boxscore (they included player minutes this time) and a game recap/story. The recap includes some of the action, and identifies a few elements to the Panther win. The scoring by quarters...

	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	Total
Pittsburgh	23	27	36	24	110
Team Ireland	15	16	11	19	61

Pittsburgh has controlled every game from virtually the opening tip to the final buzzer. Rolling out to a 19 point lead at the end of the half (second quarter), Pittsburgh decisively won the third quarter 36-11 to put the game out of reach. They then put on cruise control for the fourth quarter, and run out the time. The pattern has been the same -- a spurt in the second quarter puts the Panthers in control going into the half, and a furious third quarter puts the game out of reach. It will be interesting to see if the pattern holds against Division 1 opponents come the regular season (BEWARE THE FIRST 10 MINUTES OF THE SECOND HALF!). Consistent with their first game with the Irish National Team, the game was played for over 70 possessions (), very much out of character for the deliberate and disciplined pace shown by Jamie Dixon-coached teams. The efficiencies and Oliver's four factors:

						FTA
	Pace	ORtg	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FGA	PPWS
Pittsburgh	76.2	144.5	59.0	15.8	74.2	29.5	1.25
Team Ireland		80.1	34.9	13.1	17.6	49.2	0.79

Pitt's offensive efficiency, 144.5 shows a healthy differential from their defensive efficiency of 80.1, even better than their first game differential with Team Ireland. Their shot conversion efficiency (eFG%) was the best on the tour so far. The Panthers were for the most part, in character -- they dominated the boards (OR% of 74.2 vs 17.6), limited turnovers (15.8) and developed a high yield for their shots, scoring 1.25 points for every FGA they took. About the only out of character element was free throws. The Panthers got to the charity stripe about once for every field goal attempts, well below their Division rate (about 3 times for every 10 field goal attempts). Extremely large scoring margins combined with a very large rotation most likely explain the lack of low post physical play and lane penetration by the guards.

Notes
1. The rotation went 14 deep, and while the recap suggests the minutes were distributed evenly (more or less), the PT ranged from Dante Taylor's team-high 21 minutes to three minutes for one of the freshmen. The starters, Gilbert Brown (who started at the #2), Ashton Gibbs, J.J. Moore, Gary McGhee and J.J. Richardson had 43.9% of the playing time.
2. Four of the starters, JJ Moore, Gilbert Brown, JJ Richardson and Ashton Gibbs, along with rising junior Nasir Robinson scored double-digit points. Moore was the high scorer for the second straight game, this time notching 14 points on 6-12 (1-2, 5-10) and 1-2 shooting.
3. Gibbs, Brown, Robinson and JJ Richardson had particularly efficient outings, combining volume scoring with efficient shooting. Each scored double digit points while posting eFGs >57.0.
4. Brown dished a team-high five assists to go with his 12 points.
5. While the Panthers crushed the Irish National Team on the boards, only rising sophomore Dante Taylor grabbed, who grabbed a game-high 10 rebounds, gathered more than eight boards. This was truly a team effort, as all 14 players had at least one defensive board, and 13 of 14 players grabbed at least one offensive board.

Next
Pittsburgh will play one more game in Dublin, again at Dublin City University, tomorrow, when they face the Dart Killester Club Team. Dart Killester won the North Conference of the Ireland Super League (the premier league in Ireland), 13-5.

Rising Seniors -- Nine to Watch

What I Am Looking For
Austin Freeman won't make this list. Neither will Jimmy Butler nor Tim Abromaitis. They are names already; they made one of the "All Big East" Teams last March. Everybody knows them, and everyone will have them on their "Best in" or "Top" list in the next three months. They are already a bullet on ESPN's "Keys to the Game" pre-game analysis, and will probably continue their bullet status this season. They made their marks during their freshmen or sophomore or junior seasons. Those "name" guys decided to come back and...
a. Finish their education;
b. Improve their draft status;
c. Help their team win a Big East Championship/NCAA Championship;
d. Savor one last year of...before heading out into the world to earn a living;
e. All of the above.

Corey Fisher, Jeremy Hazell and the other recognized junior and senior players, veterans all, make the Big East Conference the best conference for watching basketball. But every season a Hilton Armstrong, or an Andy Rautins, a Jon Wallace or a Dante Cunningham lands in the national press (and picks up a post season Big East award or two) seemingly out of nowhere. Invisible to many except their team's fans, these seniors tend to start somewhere back in that freshman pack, or labor in the vineyards of a low ranking team, but unlike their classmates, they (and their team?) improve quietly every season. By Pomeroy's classification system they may start as a "Role", "Limited Role" or even "Invisible" player, and grow into a "Major" or "Go-to Guy" player over the course of their four years. Pomeroy discusses growth "probabilities" in "Putting Individual Efficiency into Perspective" over at The Basketball Prospectus back in 2007. These guys tend to push at the upper limit of their growth curve each season. The Jon Wallaces and Orinze Onuakus -- are drawing a good share of the minutes at their position going into their senior seasons and they are drawing somewhere between 18% - 20% of the possessions when they are on the floor. They may lurk off the MSM's radar, but their teammates know who they are, look for them on the floor...and trust them with the ball.

			On Offense...
Player	School	%Min	ORtg	%Poss	%Shot	PPWS
Marshon Brooks	PC	66.2	113.9	22.8	25.9	1.10
Scoop Jardine	Cuse	55.6	113.6	22.6	20.7	1.15
Antonio Pena	Nova	61.9	112.3	20.3	18.1	1.22
Chris Wright	GTown	87.8	111.7	23.2	24.4	1.14
Gilbert Brown	Pitt	39.3	110.9	23.2	23.5	1.19
D.J. Kennedy	John's	77.4	110.4	25.8	23.5	1.15
Rick Jackson	Cuse	65.7	108.6	19.6	19.0	1.16
Brad Wanamaker	Pitt	79.6	105.8	24.7	21.0	1.08
Dwight Hardy	John's	48.1	102.4	23.7	28.0	1.06

Marshon Brooks fits the profile, each season his role with the Friars has, for the most part, grown. Securing 22.5% of the possessions and over a quarter of the shots last season would put Brooks on an "All" team if his team finished 0.500 or better in conference play. The Friars didn't, and Brooks will probably put in his last season playing for a team that may well post fewer than the four "W"s they earned in conference play in 2010. Pitt's Gilbert Brown is another outlier. I set 40% as the cutoff for consideration this season, largely on the notion that if the player had not been able to draw that many minutes, there must be some other coach-player issue at work. Brown actually logged about 58.8% of the PT as soon as he became academically eligible. His numbers through what was obviously the toughest part of Pittsburgh's schedule were impressive. Each season Brown has faced a challenge putting in an entire season, and when he could (his sophomore season) there was a logjam at his spot. If he can stay healthy, this might well be the payout year for those among the Pitt faithful who did not falter. Everyone knows Chris Wright out of Georgetown already, but this is one reason I prefer the more traditional, five player "All Team" recognition. Had the voters had 22 slots (instead of 15) to fill, Wright would definitely made it. Rush the Court's Zach Hayes ranks Wright #9 on his Big East Top 20 list. After a red shirt year (injury), and a prolonged un-mentored "orientation" sophomore season Wright's role and efficiency has improved each season. I was not sure about Villanova's Antonio Pena, while his shooting efficiency stats are strong (and his offensive rebounding rate is outstanding) his "share" of shot taking is a little light at 18.1%. That the staff tended to limit his minutes in tight games is not reassuring either. But Pena is a senior, and Villanova's staff tend to hand a good deal of responsibility to their upperclassmen. 'Tone is a solid player who can be very good (when he holds onto the ball). Maybe he needs a little faith...in himself.

			Four Factors...
						FTA
Player	School	%Min	eFG%	OR%	TO%	FGA
Marshon Brooks	PC	66.2	53.1	6.5	14.9	23.1
Scoop Jardine	Cuse	55.6	53.4	1.9	21.4	39.5
Antonio Pena	Nova	61.9	57.7	10.4	20.4	61.4
Chris Wright	GTown	87.8	52.6	2.1	16.5	35.7
Gilbert Brown	Pitt	39.3	56.0	4.7	17.9	50.3
D.J. Kennedy	John's	77.4	52.3	6.2	18.6	49.0
Rick Jackson	Cuse	65.7	59.1	12.7	21.2	34.1
Brad Wanamaker	Pitt	79.6	48.0	6.3	21.3	57.8
Dwight Hardy	John's	48.1	50.6	2.2	15.5	22.8

Check out Rick Jackson's offensive rebounding rate (OR%). The "average" varies by position, and offensive systems can emphasize offensive rebounding (Villanova's) or de-emphasize it (Michigan) depending on the priorities set by the staff. According to Ken Pomeroy 21.4 was the highest in Division 1, 12.8 is Top 100 and 8.7 is Top 500. In any system 10 is very good, and Jackson grabbed 12.7% of the offensive boards when he was in the game. For both Jackson and teammate Scoop Jardine (and Pitt's Brad Wannamaker and Villanova's Pena...) was turnovers. In a low possession system (Pitt/Wannamaker) that can be a killer. For Jardine the redeeming attribute was his assist rate (Top 50 per Pomeroy); for Jackson, it was his rebounding, at both ends of the court.

		Miscellaneous...
Player	School	Ast%	DR%	Blk%	Stl%
Marshon Brooks	PC	10.1	9.8	1.7	2.7
Scoop Jardine	Cuse	32.5	7.2	0.3	3.0
Antonio Pena	Nova	7.5	21.0	2.3	2.2
Chris Wright	GTown	22.6	8.0	0.8	2.5
Gilbert Brown	Pitt	17.9	10.9	1.0	1.3
D.J. Kennedy	John's	21.5	16.3	2.2	2.2
Rick Jackson	Cuse	11.2	16.5	8.2	2.2
Brad Wanamaker	Pitt	31.3	14.0	0.9	2.3
Dwight Hardy	John's	8.7	8.0	0.3	1.8

St. John's duo DJ Kennedy and Dwight Hardy labored long and hard last season. Kennedy has been a Johnny for three seasons, and worked every season to put the Red Storm into the conferences' upper division. Hardy transferred in, sat a season and will play his second and final season in Queens. St. John's fans have valued Kennedy's scoring efficiency and hustle, while lamenting his (occasional) lapses in situational judgement. The problem may be correctable if, with that last timeout in a game, the staff sends the squad back out with a play that has a good chance of success.

Hits & Misses...Last Year's List
A few of last summer's "Nine to Watch" seniors had very good years. Andy Rautins and Orinze Onuaku (& Wes Johnson, &...everyone involved, everyone involved) led the Orange to the top of the conference as the entire team had a breakout season. An untimely injury to Onuaku, their anchor in the low post, derailed what might have been a deep NCCAA Tournament run. Pittsburgh's Jermaine Dixon increased his possession and shot rates dramatically, but his efficiency crashed, and his minutes declined through the season. Villanova's Reggie Redding returned from his fall suspension, and assumed much the same role his senior season as he did his junior season. He finished with about the same percentage of possessions, shots (role player status) and offensive rating (104). The Wildcats were good, but did not appear to get better as they moved through the season. Reggie is playing in Cyprus. Stanley Robinson's role in Connecticut's offense did grow significantly, as the senior took more possessions and shots in the Husky offense. He improved his offensive rating in the process, but as a whole the team stepped back to an 18-16 record and, for the second time in five seasons, NIT status. Robinson was taken by the Orlando Magic in the second round of the NBA draft. Stix Mitchell watched his role with the Pirates disappear when Jeff Robinson became eligible and took an increasingly large role in the Hall's offense and defense. By the end of the season Robinson (and freshman Ferrakon Hall) took most of the available minutes at the #3. Seton Hall's record improved and they received an NIT bid after losing in the quarter-final round of the Big East Tournament. After a Big East Tournament post game outburst however, Mitchell was dismissed from the team, and did not play in the NIT.

Ireland 2010 -- Panthers Down South Region All-Stars, 92-52

The Panthers Mix it Up
The University of Pittsburgh swept the games in their Neptune Stadium stand with a 92-52 win over the South Regional All-Star (SRAS), a collection of star players from the South Conference of the Irish Super League, before 857 fans in Cork. The Pittsburgh basketball site has the official boxscore (again with no player minutes...) and game recap/story. For those following the team, the recap gives some detail on individual player performances. The scoring by quarters...

	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	Total
Pittsburgh	19	18	32	23	92
South Region All-Stars	12	11	13	16	52

Having established a 14 point lead going into half-time, Pitt opened the third quarter with a 10-2 run to push the SRAS at something farther than an arm's length. Holding a 33 point lead going into the fourth quarter, the Panthers eased off a bit and cruised home. Unlike the exhibition-paced game against the Irish National Team, this one featured a more deliberate 64.9 possessions, much closer to the tempo preferred by the Panthers teams developed by Coach Dixon. The efficiencies and Oliver's four factors:

	Off		FTA
	Eff	eFG%	FGA	OReb%	TO%
Pittsburgh	138.2	54.4	16.3	69.8	18.0
South Region All-Stars	78.1	41.2	24.6	34.0	33.0

Pitt's offensive efficiency, again over 130.0 (very, very strong) shows a healthy differential from their defensive efficiency (SRAS' offensive efficiency) of 78.0. If their shot conversion efficiency (eFG% 54.4) was not in the high 50's/low 60's, the Panthers limited their turnovers (18.0) and grabbed an astounding 69.8% of their own misses. Their low FTA/FGA (unusual for a team that plays as physically as Pitt) was probably a result of their offenisve shift to the outside in the last two quarters. Pitt perimeter scorers launched 11 3FGAs in the third and fourth quarters. Offense tends to draw fan (and media) attention, but defense wins games, especially the tight ones. The Panthers pressured the ball (TO% of 33.0) and contested shots (eFG% at 41.2), two crucial elements to their traditional approach to defense.

Observations
1. The rotation went 14 deep for this game, a good indication Pitt was not pressured at any point in the game.
2. Freshman JJ Moore, rising sophomore Talib Zanna and rising senior Gilbert Brown had particularly efficient outings. Each scored double digit points (Zanna logged a double-double) while posting eFGs >75.0.
3. A rules quirk, freshmen are not allowed to play before classes convene, kept the freshmen out of game 1. All four of Pitt's entering class saw action on Sunday. Aron Nwankwo, J.J. Moore and Cameron Wright logged minutes versus the SRAS, with Moore posting a game-high 14 points, an eFG% of 77.8%, on 6-9 (2-3,4-6) and 0-0 shooting.

Next
The Panthers travel to Dublin, where they will stay Monday through Thursday. After a day of sightseeing, they will have a second game, at Dublin City University, on Tuesday evening.

Reynolds to Play in Italy

After mulling a offer to go to the Phoenix Sun's training camp, former Villanova's #2 All-Time scorer, guard Scottie Reynolds decided to sign a guaranteed contract with Prima Verdi of the Italian League Second Division and take a year abroad. Reynolds follows in the footsteps of former teammate Mike Nardi and fellow Villanova alum Alan Ray, in going to the Italian League.

Best of luck Scottie!

Ireland 2010 -- Pittsburgh Defeats the Irish National Team 99-54

The Runnin' Panthers?
The University of Pittsburgh opened their tour of Ireland with a 99-54 drubbing of the Irish National Team before 1,650 fans in Neptune Stadium, in Cork, Ireland. Team Ireland led 6-2 in the first quarter, but were stunned by a 15-0 run and never recovered. The Pittsburgh basketball site has the official boxscore and game recap/story. For those interested in following the daily comings and goings of the team, the site also provides a daily blog of the tour.

The game was played for a slightly surprising 74.1 possessions, well above the Panthers' 62.9 possessions from the 2010 season (consistent with previous seasons pace), and more consistent with an exhibition game. The efficiencies and Oliver's four factors:

	Off		FTA
	Eff	eFG%	FGA	OReb%	TO%
Pittsburgh	133.7	65.7	23.9	60.7	29.7
Irish National Team	72.9	39.3	19.6	27.6	21.6

Probably the best predictor of the result was the nearly identical allocation of minutes among the players (see below). Had the Irish offered much resistence, Coach Dixon no doubt would have allocated a few more minutes to the starters. The offensive efficiency, field goal efficiency (eFG%) and offensive rebounding numbers were predictable. A team accustomed to winning most of their board battles in the Big East handled the Irish National Team easily. The FTA/FGA was low, about 18.9 points below their 42.8% of 2010. The product of an unusually high 3FGA/2FGA ratio (35.8% vs 2010's 29.1%) possibly, or more likely the point spread through much of the second half -- Pitt led by 12, 48-36, at half-time, but blew the game open in the third quarter, outscoring Team Ireland 24-10. Putting up another 27 fourth quarter points, and Pitt outscored Ireland in the second half to the tune of 51-18, a truly overwhelming performance. With scoring that disparate, there was no reason to force the issue and get to the line. The Panthers' 29% turnover rate is the one sour note on the contest, but consider that the staff reached very deep into the bench and no doubt mixed player combinations to the point where unfamiliar pairings had to work together. The very large leads throughout the second half may have encouraged a more relaxed attitude about possessions, or a bit more creative playmaking. As the table below suggests, the problem appears to have centered on only a handful of players.

							FTA
Player	%Min	Poss%	Shot%	ORtg	eFG%	PPWS	FGA
Nasir Robinson	45.0	16.4	13.3	156.7	100.0	1.88	75.0
Gilbert Brown	45.0	34.1	39.8	116.7	83.3	1.71	16.7
Gary McGhee	45.0	13.8	10.0	120.1	66.7	1.55	66.7
Brad Wanamaker	47.5	28.3	18.9	165.5	83.3	1.74	33.3
Ashton Gibbs	47.5	43.7	47.1	99.8	56.7	1.13	0.0
Travon Woodall	45.0	32.3	19.9	69.4	50.0	1.00	0.0
Dante Taylor	45.0	18.5	16.6	112.5	60.0	1.11	60.0
Talib Zanna	45.0	17.3	13.3	99.1	75.0	1.50	0.0
Lamar Patterson	45.0	36.4	26.5	81.7	43.8	0.86	37.5
J.J. Richardson	45.0	4.8	6.6	207.0	100.0	2.05	50.0
Nick Rivers	45.0	6.9	6.6	31.2	0.0	0.00	0.0

While it is silly to draw broad conclusions based on a single exhibition game (or tour for that matter), possession and shot rates suggest what most Pitt observers have been saying since the end of the 2010 season -- that the offense will run through junior point guard Ashton Gibbs and senior forward Gilbert Brown. This was the fourth consecutive off season in which Pitt observers have predicted a "break out" year for the athletic forward. Maybe they are right this time. Luke Harangody racked up possession and shot rates in the 33%-35% range last season, presenting problems for Notre Dame's offense. Look for Gibbs' and Brown's possession and shot rates to drop as the tour goes on. And next season, something in the 27-29% range, provided Brown holds to those same efficiency numbers (and Gibbs can elevate his a bit) will earn both players conference (and most likely national) recognition. A look at the assist rates and rebounding...

	Ast%	OR%	DR%	TO%	Blk%	Stl%
Nasir Robinson	15.3	7.9	7.7	18.3	0.0	3.0
Gilbert Brown	0.0	7.9	15.3	17.6	0.0	0.0
Gary McGhee	0.0	15.9	7.7	21.7	0.0	3.0
Brad Wanamaker	71.2	0.0	7.3	10.1	0.0	8.5
Ashton Gibbs	36.2	0.0	7.3	6.5	0.0	2.8
Travon Woodall	26.5	0.0	0.0	37.1	0.0	9.0
Dante Taylor	0.0	31.7	38.3	0.0	0.0	0.0
Talib Zanna	0.0	31.7	38.3	34.7	0.0	0.0
Lamar Patterson	21.3	23.8	23.0	16.5	0.0	3.0
J.J. Richardson	0.0	0.0	7.7	0.0	0.0	3.0
Nick Rivers	5.8	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

The board domination is led by rising sophomores Dante Taylor and Talib Zanna, two front court players who had less impact than many expected their first year out. I will be interested to see how Coach Dixon works them into the rotation.

Next...
Pittsburgh will play the Southern Regional All-Stars in Neptune Stadium on Sunday, then travel to Dublin to continue their tour.