2009-10 ECB Roundtable -- Preseason Q & A

Pico Dulce over at The East Coast Bias shot me a 7 question email with a request that I limit responses to 100 words (to each question...right Pico?). It seems a number of other bloggers, including Villanova's own IBBW Blog, posted their responses, both to Pico and their blogs. Pico will publish a compilation sometime in the next week or so, but for now, here is my response (with a few expanded comments)...

1. What's new with your team since the end of last season?
VBTN -- Scottie Reynolds put in for the draft, but decided to return for his senior season. Corey Fisher played on the USA team as they took the bronze medal at the World University Games in Belgrade in July. Corey benefited from the competition, and the nearly 3 weeks of structured practice under Wisconsin coach Bo Ryan. Reggie Redding (the Wildcat's glue guy) had a run-in with the law and has been benched for the fall semester, though he will attend classes and practice with the team during his punishment. The Wildcats welcome a 4 man class of freshmen to campus this fall. All are Top 100, with 3 Top 50. Two (Mouphtaou Yarou and Isaiah Armwood) will step into the front court. Dominic Cheek will join Corey Stokes on the wing while Malik Wayns will take his place in the back court. Taylor King, a #3/#4 transfer from Duke, and Maurice Sutton, a red shirt freshman, will suit up this season as well, and join the front court contingent. Also -- Scottie & Fisher were named to the Wooden Preseason List, an honor they shared with 50 of his peers. VUhoops.com noted that Villanova was one of 9 schools to have 2 players named to the preseason list. Assistant Coach Pat Chambers left the program to take the helm of the Boston University Terriers. The Nova Nation can have a mini-reunion as Coach Chambers will also take his Terriers to the Puerto Rico Tip Off this November.

2. Cash or Clunker: Name the teams that you think will be the top 3 squads next season in the Big East (the Cash)... and the bottom 3 (Clunkers). Bonus: which team's finish in the league is most difficult to predict?
VBTN -- Cash:  The Gold may not Glitter quite as brightly this season, but my choices are West Virginia, Villanova and Louisville. The 'Eers and 'Cats were installed as the front runners since oh...April 6. Louisville may have lost their studs (Clark and Williams) but returns everyone else. And "everyone else" is very good. They add Peyton Siva in the back court and re-inforce the front court with Rakeem Buckles and Stephan Van Treese. Whether the staff decides to play Knowles and Smith together on the wing or go with a "twin towers" look -- Jennings and Samuels together in the front court, opponents will be challenged to counter. Also -- I usually divide the conference into ¼s, so naming three felt a bit strange. For those bloggers who named Connecticut...I see the Huskies finishing in the top 4. The choice of Louisville over Connecticut came down to returning minutes, and the needs that needed to be filled. The Huskies return 39% of their minutes, and have to replace their front court (Adrien and Thabeet). I am a big Kimba Walker fan, but he did not make the progress I thought he would over the course of last season. Louisville returns 54% of their minutes and have to replace their #3 and #4 (both NBA 1st round draft picks, which, when coupled with Coach Pitino's personal problems, explains why most MSM's are cautious with predictions). And Payton Siva should solve the Cards' lingering problems at the point.
VBTN -- Clunkers:  DePaul, Rutgers and (this one really pains me...) Providence. Like the Cash, DePaul and Rutgers have to be a consensus pick. If the lack of talent does not do in the Demons, the uncertainty over the staff's future will. The Friars return 6 players from last season's squad, but Curry, McKenzie and Brooks are the only ones who logged significant time. They have four players over 6-6, but none logged any minutes in Providence last season (3 red shirts and a JUCO). Davis is recruiting New England very hard, and will have the Friars back -- in 2011.
Also -- I overlooked the bonus question in my response to Pico, but the answer is clearly Notre Dame. My predictions have been 180 degrees wrong three seasons running. I also wonder about the trio of Cincinnati, Seton Hall and St. John's. Much is expected of these three -- each returns most of their 2009 team, has addressed their 2009 weaknesses through additions to their respective squads and appear ready to move up in the conference. Can returning minutes (and good intentions) provide the energy to break through that "glass ceiling" that seems to separate the lower division from the upper division?

3. The Big East enters the season without a lot of players who have carryover buzz from last season - Luke Harangody and perhaps Scottie Reynolds are the names a casual fan might be most familiar with. Which players will step up and be the "face of the league"?
VBTN -- IBBW identified Greg Monroe out of Georgetown in his blog...he is a good choice. My 2 cents -- Samardo Samuels out of Louisville will draw early media attention, as will Corey Fisher from Villanova. Other good candidates include Jerome Dyson out of Connecticut, Ashton Gibbs of Pittsburgh and Devon Ebanks from West Virginia.  Also -- As I read other blog responses to this question, I wonder if some of us missed the point. I have no doubt Luke Harangody and Scottie Reynolds will get a good deal of free press, especially in the early weeks of the season. Their previous seasons' stats and heroics will be the wind at their (collective) backs going into December/January. I understood the intent of Pico's question to be who among the non-seniors will emerge with the kind of performances that will stay with the broadcasters, electronic media and the fans. I believe those who fill the "face" role will...
1. Be outstanding performers -- obvious right? But I am thinking in the context of possession-based stats when I use that description...the "face" will take >=24% of his team's possessions and shots. And turn in a few eye-popping performances. "Faces" don't have to make Sports Center-worthy, "Play of the Day" sequences, but they do have to turn in the kind of (efficient) performances that warrant extra defensive attention.
2. Come from teams which are successful. Laboring in the vinyard is expected of any outstanding player, but laboring in the right vinyard -- the one that yields the most memorable wine -- is necessary for media exposure and accolades. Which is why Greg Monroe, Samardo Samuels, Jerome Dyson and Devon Ebanks are obvious choices. They are outstanding players on very good teams. Gibbs has not established his bona fides quite yet, but Pitt rarely falls far after their upper classmen depart en masse, and Gibbs saw a lot of minutes in the FIBA U19 tournament in New Zealand. That squad took the gold.

4. Before practice starts, who would you say is the most pivotal player on your team? Who is your candidate for breakout player in the Big East (and please state how the player will be better than last year)?
Antonio Pena without a doubt. Should Pena become a reliable front court presence, the team will have an anchor in the paint and staff will have many more options for front court looks. They could move 'Tone to the #5 and bring in King at the #4 for a true 4-out 1-in offense. Or put Morph at the #5 and 'Tone at the #4 for setting high screens and getting lane penetration and rebounding/putbacks on offense and shutting down the lane and blocks on defense. If Pena stumbles, the staff will have to push Morph, Sutton, Armwood and King along a lot faster.

Breakout player -- Jeremy Hazell of Seton Hall. Hazell has produced very efficiently (109.8), taking nearly 3 in 10 possessions (28.0) and shots (31.6) on a team that recorded an offensive efficiency of 103.1. He was the Pirate every opposing defense knew they had to throttle, but still he managed to record very good numbers. If, as Hazell distracts defenses, Herb Pope, Keon Lawrence, Stix Mitchell and John Garcia can finish the play, they will be a nightmare on defenses. I am not sure Hazell can get more possessions or shots, but with fewer defenders dogging him, he may be able to hit a few more shots. Hazell may not record "breakout" level basketball numbers, but if the Hall's record improves dramatically, Hazell and his Pirate band should record "breakout" level media numbers.

5. Twitter has become influential in broadcasting basketball/ sports information. What's your opinion of the service? Have you adopted Twitter for your blog? What have been the plusses and minuses?
I like it, though I use it only "situationally". I followed the World University Games via twitter, having the final scores hours before they were published by the news services. I have not adopted it for Villanova by the Numbers. I never intended to have VBTN be a "breaking news" blog/website. I want to wait a day or two and write about what the "news" means, rather than what it is. I want to use the numbers as a means to understand why "it" happened. Twitter is more valuable to me as a "news source/news alert" for events that I know will not get a lot of media attention initially. Twitter is good for "who", "what" and "when". I want VBTN to be more about "why".

6. What have you been doing with your time without basketball games?
Trolling the international tournaments and following the Big East players this summer. I did some research on the history of the Big 5 (Philadelphia's City Series) and discovered the series records over at the official web site were incorrect. While I did get a reply to my email, they have not updated the site to correct the error. I also did a little (not nearly enough) traveling, spending a week in one of the nation's truly special natural treasures -- the Great Smokies.  Also -- I chipped away at a (lately) backlogged reading list that included American Lion: Andrew Jackson, Team of Rivals and American Places.

7. The summer is slow; so when Pitino's "mistake" is made public, or when Calipari's former team is penalized, or when someone posits a way for the Big East Conference to pick up new football members, the story tends to stick around a little longer than it would during the season. What college basketball story are you tired of this off season?
VBTN -- With apologies to Pico, I made a right turn around here...Pitino's indiscretion and speculation over the next Big East football school are not basketball stories, yet they appropriate resources that could/ought to go to legitimate "basketball" stories. I am, for example, very curious to learn about "touring teams", unaffliated with specific schools (but sometimes with specific causes), that are staffed with DI players and appear to tour abroad during the summer. Corey Chandler for example, late of Rutgers, joined one of those teams and toured Europe in late July/early August. When he returned to Rutgers he was dismissed from the program. I am not suggesting a "cause/effect" relationship between those two events, but the timing was curious. How do these teams (there are a number of them) differ from the USA Basketball-sponsored international teams (U16, U19, World University Games, Pan American teams, etc)? Are the players sponsored, or do they pay their own way? How does the selection process operate (are the training/tryout schedules)? Who arranges their opponents/competition? Who are the coaches? How are they selected?

While the talking heads have all weighed in on whether Memphis' punishments was fair or not fair, no one has tracked down Rose to find out what exactly happened that weekend in Detroit. No one has tracked down the sources to establish a real timeline to account for his activities. The circumstances were peculiar, and potentially illegal. We seem to have 500 commentators and 0 reporters these days.

Roster Moves -- Start of School Shuffle

Back to School
Keeping our fingers crossed there still have been no significant injuries reported. School is back in session and the players continue to workout individually or informally in small groups. And they continue to play unsupervised pickup games. Academic disqualifications have been announced and handled, becoming more a part of the fall planning cycle, rather than the reporting phase of the spring semester.

DePaul -- Freshman Tony Freeland, a 6-6 forward out of Los Angeles has run afoul of the NCAA clearing house and will enroll in the winter quarter (not the fall, as anticipated). Freeland is a Top 200 (or so) player who averaged 21.4 ppgs in his senior year at Freemont HS. The Blue Demons add 4 walk-on players, the result of an open tryout call to fill out the Blue Demon roster for 2009-10. DePaul, going into the season with 6 scholarship players, needs at least 4-5 more players to prepare properly. The staff now has enough bodies to put together a "scout squad" for game simulations. The 4 players, all guards (the tallest, 6-5 Ryan Siggins out of Archbishop Alter in Kettering, OH), include 3 freshmen and a mid-major transfer. 6-4 Jimmy Drew, a junior from Anna, Ill whose last stop was Southeast Missouri State, will sit out the year per NCAA rules, but can practice with the team. More details on the four (plus Freeland) is available via a Daily Herald story.

Marquette -- Maurice Acker decided to complete his eligibility at Marquette. As the number of available scholarships shrank in the face of the mega recruiting class of 2009 assembled to begin the post James/Matthews/McNeal Era, senior Maurice Acker, a transfer who played 2 seasons with the Amigos, decided to leave the team and concentrate on academics so he could complete his degree work in the fall semester. Acker's return may have been "the other shoe" in the early exit of Brett Roseboro episode. The staff has two pgs (a JUCO and a true freshman) lined up to replace Dom James, but Acker, a senior with 2 seasons of varsity experience at Marquette, might be able to bridge the time period it will take to get Johnson and Cadougan up to speed.

Rutgers -- Bouncing back from Coach Hill has decided to take a flyer on a Kosovar player, Muhamed Hasani. Using a recruiting connection from years ago (Slobodan "Boban" Savovic, a former guard at Eastside HS in Newark, NJ), Rutgers brought in a National Team player from Pristina, Kosovo to compete for the point guard spot with JUCO James Beatty, who committed to the Scarlet Knights back in June.

St. John's -- The only program in (sanctioned) action last week took casualties. The Johnnies, taking advantage of a "closing door" on Canadian Excursions, left rehabilitating 5th year senior Anthony Mason Jr. at home. Through the 1st day of play both junior Stanley Burrell and sophomore Quincy Roberts "dropped out" of the rotation. Though both received multiple starts and long stretches of playing time last season, neither had any minutes against Sunday's opponents, Carleton and Ottawa, despite the fact that both were much tougher opponents than Saturday's Quebec Province contingent. I have heard that Burrell may have fractured his hand and that Roberts was held out due to a concussion, though the Athletic Department has not commented on any of the players officially. If Burrell's injury is indeed a fracture, he may be held out through October. Roberts, Mason and Coker (left behind -- visa issues) will no doubt participate in full squad practices.

Seton Hall -- announced that Head Coach Bobby Gonzalez received a contract extension through 2014-15. Coach Gonzalez, at odds with AD Joe Quinlan several times over the past 2 seasons (Jerry Carino adds to the speculation with this blog post from 9/10), received a "vote of confidence" to counteract recruiting trail rumors. The timing, coming at the start of the fall in home visitation period, was not coincidential...according to his extended interview with Adam Zagoria.

West Virginia -- Suspended sophomore Darryl Bryant cleared another hurdle this week when a sympathetic Monogahela County Magistrate Court accepted a no contest plea to one of the three charges pending before it related to Bryant's July 4 hit-and-run traffic. The other 2 charges were dismissed as Bryant was also ordered to pay a $200 fine (and court costs). His June 21st hit-and-run charges were adjudicated in a Morgantown Court last month. A fine of $135 was accepted for a no contest plea, the other charges were also dropped. While the West Virginia University Athletic Department contends Bryant remains "suspended", I suspect the only question is "when", not "if" with respect to Bryant's return to the team.

Assessing the Impact
While no one thought Acker would develop into an All-Big East level player, he has become a solid rotation player for the Golden Eagles. His 3 point shooting is abysmal, but his assist-to-turnover ratio last season was better than 3:1. And he is one of the few point guards to post nearly as many steals as turnovers. Acker will provide leadership and maturity as the staff brings the newcomers up to speed. Acker's return may be the biggest "positive" among last week's roster moves. Justin Burrell's hand fracture is the biggest "negative". While the Johnnies have the deepest squad of the Roberts Era, Burrell has been their man in the middle for the last 2 seasons. And the low post is probably their thinnest spot on the court. Freeland's delay deprives DePaul of a scoring wing who can also rebound. While not projected as an impact player, deferring playing time to the the Big East schedule delays Freeland's development. The walk-ons will most likely see (collectively) little, if any, playing time. The biggest question mark -- Rutgers' Muhamed Hasani without a doubt. Coach Hill adds a Euro-trained pg (think high IQ here...) to his roster, which may pay dividends in practice.

Oh Canada! After the Storm

Rolling Through Ottawa
As I noted at the end of the UQAM post Sunday morning, the Johnnies hung a 17 point win on the Carleton Univesity Ravens, possibly the high point of their Canadian Excursion. The Ravens, rebuilding from the loss of Aaron Doornekamp (who played for the Canadian National Team before heading off to Italy to begin his professional career), looked to a few of their younger players to fill the void left by Dornekamp. After trailing by 4 at half-time, the Red Storm blew past the Ravins in the first 5½ minutes of the 2nd half, and never looked back. The efficiency stats for the team...

							FTA
Team	Pace	eFG%	ORtg	PPWS	OR%	TO%	FGA	Ast%	Stl%
St. John's	60.5	53.7	117.3	1.14	18.5	5.0	31.5	36.0	8.2
Carleton	60.5	45.6	89.2	1.01	25.0	21.5	40.0	55.6	3.3

In a game whose pace was the most "DI like" of the quartet, the Johnnies put on one of their better offensive performances. Reflecting the level of their competition, St. John's defensive numbers were the worst of the trip. Each team negated the others offensive rebounding, neither team had many 2nd chance opportunities. By comparison though, the Johnnies did get the worse of the deal, grabbing a very slight 18.5% of their misses. The disadvantage went unnoticed because the Red Storm shot so well...

Nicks & Dings...Or Weary Legs?
The evening tilt against the Ottawa University Gee Gees, while counted as a win, was less impressive. Ottawa University, typically the bridesmaid to Carleton's domination in the CIS post season tournament, put up a surprisingly strong effort as they took the Red Storm down to (literally) the last seconds before bowing by a single point, 74-73. The efficiency stats suggest this was a loosely played game between two up tempo clubs, each of whom managed to lose over 20% of their possessions (Gee Gees -- 27.9%, Red Storm -- 22.6%)...

							FTA
Team	Pace	ORtg	eFG%	PPWS	OR%	TO%	FGA	Ast%	Stl%
St. John's	74.4	99.4	53.6	1.12	37.9	22.8	37.5	50.0	17.3
Ottawa	74.4	98.1	51.9	1.12	25.0	28.2	49.1	54.2	9.3

Comparing St. John's eFG% and PPWS in the two games and I found a surprisingly consistent accuracy (even the FTA/FGA suggests the same level of "aggression" on offense/defense between the two games). The biggest difference was turnover rates -- versus the Ravens the Johnnies lost 5% of their possessions, while versus the Gee Gees the Johnnies lost a disappointing 22.8%. Their turnovers nearly negated their shooting. St. John's steals (17.3%) was due in large measure to Malik Boothe and Justin Brownlee, who combined for 9 steals. Coach Roberts went with a short rotation, using only 8 players (all of whom played double digit minutes). His starters (Boothe, Brownlee, Evans, Horne and Kennedy) combined to play 71.3% of the minutes, extremely high for an exhibition game. The staff decided to leave Anthony Mason Jr. behind due to a minor injury, and that decision seemed to set the tone for the trip. Justin Burrell played only 8 minutes in the 1st game (versus McGill), while Quincy Roberts, after logging 20 minutes versus McGill, received only 9 minutes in the UQAM game and did not appear in either of the Sunday games (and was also rumored to be slightly injured). Rob Thomas and Kevin Clark, both (deep) bench players did not see the floor versus the Gee Gees, despite logging minutes versus Carleton, UQAM and McGill.

Summing Up the Players
I have compiled the efficiency stats for those who logged any time in the 4 game tour...

									FTA
Player	%Min	%Poss	ORtg	PPWS	eFG%	OR%	TO%	Ast%	FGA	DR%	Blk%	Stl%
Boothe	49.2	20.9	93.6	1.18	53.3	3.6	26.0	16.0	93.3	5.1	0.0	5.4
Brownlee	52.3	22.8	100.4	1.25	62.1	5.1	16.8	6.9	17.2	17.7	6.6	4.5
Burrell	19.7	40.8	118.4	1.80	100.0	9.0	33.2	0.0	25.0	4.3	0.0	0.0
Clark	3.7	16.2	89.8	1.00	50.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Evans	48.6	28.3	103.0	1.27	63.3	14.6	19.4	9.9	23.3	32.9	1.4	2.8
Hardy	69.7	19.1	107.6	1.30	64.5	1.3	10.0	3.8	7.9	2.4	0.0	1.9
Horne	69.1	20.6	118.1	1.33	61.8	9.0	9.4	7.4	29.4	14.6	3.0	4.4
Kennedy	66.0	29.6	100.7	1.13	52.3	12.1	12.0	10.9	39.5	25.5	5.3	1.5
Lawrence	47.9	19.7	84.0	0.91	40.0	5.5	14.1	9.9	35.0	22.8	1.4	4.2
Roberts	36.0	19.7	95.6	1.10	55.0	0.0	9.4	4.3	0.0	2.3	0.0	3.7
Stith	59.8	16.0	97.8	0.99	41.7	4.4	10.5	12.7	66.7	8.4	0.0	1.7
Thomas	10.6	16.5	138.5	1.80	90.0	0.0	19.1	9.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

Granted 4 games (about 160 minutes of playing time per player) is a very small sample from which to draw conclusions. Efficiencies for players logging < 10% of the playing time is even dicier. Take those numbers with an even bigger grain of salt than the others. The four game mix does however, provide an opportunity to see (I caught the streaming video from Carleton Sunday. It was wonderful to see a college basketball game over Labor Day...) the team and review the numbers. A few things occur to me as I look over the box scores and the spreadsheets.
1. The true freshmen are well, true freshmen. Stith and Lawrence had PPWSs =<0.99 and ORtgs in the range of the mid 80s (Lawrence) to the mid 90s (Stith), very typical of freshmen. They will be good players in time, but I doubt they will be game-changers, or players that will have an immediate impact on St. John's play.
2. The JUCOs hung with the veterans, which is a good sign. When I read that Justin Brownlee, a forward out of Chipola College in Florida had committed to St. John's my first question was "Where is this guy going to get time?". The team has a serious supply of forwards. Brownlee fit in. With the limited time he still managed to produce points fairly efficiently. The same holds for off guard Dwight Hardy, who will provide another outside threat to compliment junior Paris Horne. Though Hardy seems to be a bit shy when it comes to contact (see his FTA/FGA), his shooting efficiency was 2nd to Horne, as he converted 38.9% of his 3FGAs on his way to scoring 51 points (tied for 2nd on the team with Horne, behind DJ Kennedy). With an In/Out rating of -39.5, he was the "most outside" player on the team, among those who logged 20% or more of the playing time. Horne by the way, had a very good run over the weekend too. Tied with Hardy with 51 points, he shot an outstanding 42.9% from beyond the arc, making him the 3rd most effective shooter on the team, behind Evans and Hardy. Outside scoring was a significant shortcoming for the Johnnies' offense in 2009, the Horne/Hardy tandem, if as effective during the season as they were in Canada, could make a big difference for opposing defenses.
3. Malik Boothe is still his own worst enemy. The junior point guard had an eFG% of 53.3, along with a PPWS of 1.18, among the best on the team. But his ORtg was still below 100 because his turnover rate was an abysmal 26.0%, extremely high for a point guard. Boothe offered a mixed bag of numbers -- very good shooting, tops on the team for Stl%, abysmal turnover rate and a too modest 16% assist rate -- which may well make rotation decisions difficult during the regular season. Malik Stith, the freshman pg, offered less effective shooting numbers (translated into a modest eFG% and PPWS), but assisted at about the same rate as Boothe, but with a smaller turnover rate.
4. Kennedy & Evans continue to be the best rebounders on the team. Burrell logged too few minutes for accurate measure, but Evans and Kennedy continued where they left off last season. On the defensive boards, the newcomers Brownlee and Lawrence proved to be credible rebounders. The Carleton game was unusual for St. John's in that it was the only time on the Canadian Tour, and only 11 times (out of 34 games)last season that the Johnnies were outrebounded. Especially interesting given the Ravens had lost Doornekamp, their big rebounder.

Caveat Emptor!
The Canadian Junket offers many positives, no wonder the NCAA banned them. Aside from giving the team an excuse to conduct full practices in late August (an especially bad time for pickup game injuries), the northern tours allow teams to travel relatively cheaply as they play other, collegiate-level (admittedly largely -- but not exclusively -- DII level) competition under the supervision of their college coaches. The Canadians have a chance to compete with some outstanding American programs, and both sides learn and benefit from the early exchange. The strongest new players to emerge on the Villanova team when they took their Canadian Tour in the 2007-08 season were (true) freshmen Malcolm Grant and Corey Stokes. From Stokes it was expected, but Grant was a surprise of sorts. The 3rd freshman guard, Corey Fisher, struggled very publicly during the tour. Stokes appeared completely lost in a number of early season games, saw his minutes diminished while he regained his focus. Grant, after a handful of early season heroics, faded to the bench, and received virtually no minutes during the Wildcat's season ending run to the Sweet Sixteen. Corey Fisher's time slowly grew during the season, and by March it was he, not Grant, who drew the rotation minutes during the NCAA run.

Guest Contributor Ray Floriani: Percentage of Team FGA

by Ray Floriani

LYNDHURST, NJ - In the process of doing some pre-season cleanup, I came across a 1985 book A Fan's Guide to ACC Basketball. The work, penned by two ACC experts Barry Jacobs and Ron Morris, provided a look and forecast of the conference from a statistical approach. Bill James was gaining momentum with his Baseball Abstract works. The authors, like yours truly, greatly admired James' approach and ideas. Jacobs and Morris did not have any tempo free analysis though they did have a player efficiency formula (for another time). Their work may seem elementary by some of today's standards but two and a half decades it was cutting edge, entertaining and insightful.

One tool of use today was percentage of field goal attempts. A simple but useful tool that allows quick calculation. Divide the player's field goal attempts (FGA) by the team total and you have your percentage. As noted, it's simple to compute and it gives you an insight to a team's primary option.

The following are the leaders of the respective Big East teams, in percentage order, of players who took the greatest percentage of their team's attempts in 2009. Big East regular season games are the only ones factored in.

In the Fan's Guide, the ACC leader in FGA percentage for 1983-84 was Johnny Dawkins, quite recognizable in coaching circles but a very good ball player just the same. Dawkins took 26.3% of Duke's attempts. Just narrowly behind Dawkins was another name of Note, Michael Jordan attempted 25.2% of North Carolina's field goal attempts.

			Team	% of
Player	Team	FGA	FGA	Tm FGA
Luke Harangody	ND	377	1148	32.8
Jeremy Hazell	SHU	324	1108	29.2
Jerel McNeal	MU	307	1053	29.2
Dominique Jones	USF	284	978	29.0
Dar Tucker	DePaul	282	1025	27.5
Mike Rosario	RU	279	1029	27.1
Da'Sean Butler	WVU	275	1084	25.4
Paris Horne	John's	243	1005	24.2
Sam Young	Pitt	247	1100	22.5
Jonny Flynn	Cuse	239	1088	22.0
Earl Clark	'Ville	227	1061	21.4
Dante Cunningham	Nova	222	1050	21.1
Deonta Vaughn	'Nati	217	1034	21.0
A.J. Price	UConn	205	1026	20.0
Weyinmi Efejuku	PC	204	1080	18.9
DaJuan Summers	G'town	175	945	18.5

Final notes:  Flynn paced Syracuse while Eric Devendorf (20.5%) was not far behind. In fact, the guard oriented Orange saw Flynn and Devendorf combine for 177 of Syracuse's 346 attempts. That's over half of the tries from downtown.

Pre-season I might have wanted to see Scottie Reynolds get more looks than Cunningham. As the year progressed Cunningham was more assertive inside and don't forget some of his attempts were from offensive rebounds as he led 'Nova with 47 in that category. A look at the rest of the Wildcats (this is a 'Nova blog) and their shot attempt percentages. As noted in the main breakdown, Villanova had 1050 attempts.

		% of
Player	FGA	Tm FGA
Scottie Reynolds	202	19.2
Corey Fisher	137	13.0
Dwayne Anderson	130	12.4
Corey Stokes	114	10.9
Reggie Redding	96	9.1
Antoine Pena	71	6.8
Shane Clark	68	6.5

In two cases the leading scorer was not the leader in percentage of shots taken. First case was 'Nova where Reynolds' 16.9 edged Cunningham?s 16.0. The other scenario was with Georgetown. Greg Monroe led the Hoyas in scoring (12.9) edging Summers' norm of 12.8. Monroe took 17% (161 attempts) of Georgetown's shots which was third behind Summers and Chris Wright (18.4%)

Mike Rosario attempted almost one third of Rutgers shots. Not a bad choice even though Rosario was a freshman. Rosario was a three point threat for Rutgers which meant he got the green light as the Scarlet Knights played catch up in the second half of almost all their conference contests.

Jeremy Hazell paced Seton Hall as well. Hazell also was given that proverbial green light even with the Hall in a lead. When Hazell was in a groove few, if any, could stop him. And Bobby Gonzalez called his number.

Marquette had three players, Jeremy McNeal, Wesley Matthews and Lazar Haywood, attempt over 200 shots. Dominic James attempted 167 before going down with an injury with three regular season contests remaining. Among the four mentioned, they attempted 910 (86.4%) of Marquette's 1053 shots.

Oh Canada! St. John's Sweeps Through Montreal

Red Storm Takes a Heady Nightcap
After beating the McGill University Redmen 90-55 in the afternoon, the Red Storm swept across the city of Montreal to dismantle the Citadins of Le Universite de Quebec a Montreal (the Urbans of UQAM) 104-62, in an evening matchup. The games were played in quarters of 10 minutes each and the Johnnies won each quarter, often by a healthy margin. Unlike their afternoon tilt against McGill, the Red Storm pushed right ahead right out of the gate, scoring 27 points in the first 10 minutes to take an 11 point lead at the 1st break. They padded that margin by another 11 points in the 2nd quarter to take a lead of 22 points, 55-33 into the locker room at the intermission. The Urbans rallied in the 3rd quarter to stem the runaway margin, but still lost the quarter by a point. And the Johnnies closed out the affair by trouncing the Urbans by a whopping 19 point margin in the 4th quarter. The final damage, a winning margin of +42. Coach Roberts started transfers Justin Brownlee and Dwight Hardy, alongside the freshmen Omari Lawrence and Malik Stith. Junior Sean Evans took the 5th starter spot (he came off the bench against McGill in the afternoon game). Like the afternoon tilt, the staff went eleven deep into the bench (Justin Burrell sat), giving eight players double digit minutes (consistent with an exhibition game against, say, a DII opponent). After going through box score posted on the St. John's web site all I can say is if, as I suggested in the earlier post, the UQAM team was the better competition in the Montreal swing, then the Johnnies "played up" to the competition...

						FTA
Team	Pace	ORtg	eFG%	OR%	TOV	FGA	Ast%	Stl%	PPWS
St. John's	80.1	129.8	63.4	41.4	16.2	32.4	54.8	6.2	1.27
UQAM	80.1	77.4	40.9	34.3	27.5	47.3	70.0	13.7	0.92

This was not quite the street ball pace of the afternoon game, and the team's offensive & defensive ratings appear to reflect a more structured approach to the offense and defense. St. John's, as they did versus McGill, maintained the dominent edge on the defensive boards, but against the Urbans, they also presented a strong presence on the offensive boards. The Johnnies' eFG% (63.4) was outstanding, reflecting a much better conversion rate from beyond the arc (46.2%). Several players (notably DJ Kennedy -- see below) contributed to the strong showing on the offensive boards. As for the players' stats...

						FTA
Players	Min%	Poss%	Shot%	ORtg	eFG%	FGA	OR%	DR%	PPWS
Hardy	70.0	21.4	28.2	156.4	64.3	21.4	0.0	0.0	1.30
Evans	62.5	20.3	18.0	157.5	87.5	62.5	16.6	27.4	1.64
Horne	62.5	13.5	15.8	208.9	107.1	0.0	5.5	13.7	2.14
Stith	57.5	15.1	12.2	40.5	20.0	40.0	6.0	5.0	0.50
Brownlee	55.0	17.4	20.5	171.9	87.5	12.5	6.3	20.8	1.65
Kennedy	55.0	37.8	35.9	101.5	53.6	35.7	25.1	10.4	1.10
Lawrence	55.0	18.9	15.4	56.6	16.7	66.7	6.3	36.4	0.63
Boothe	42.5	23.2	13.3	71.6	50.0	75.0	8.1	0.0	1.11
Roberts	22.5	12.9	18.8	81.0	33.3	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.67
Thomas	12.5	6.9	11.3	270.3	100.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	2.00
Clark	5.0	17.4	28.2	270.3	100.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	2.00

The offensive fireworks produced a number of distorted Offensive Ratings and PPWS's. Dwight Hardy and DJ Kennedy powered the offense, posting some outstanding numbers (note their ORtgs and eFG%s). Lawrence, Boothe and Evans got to the virtually at will, getting to the line more and once per 2 field goal attempts. For Boothe it was a 3 for 4 exhange, suggesting the Urbans might have had problems with his speed. Brownlee and Evans were not as prolific, but clearly Quebec had problems containing them (note their outstanding eFG%'s).

The Johnnies are trailing the Carleton Ravens by 4 at the half in a much tougher game than Saturday. The Ravens will be the best opponent they face on the tour.

Carleton Update -- Post Game
In what is their most impressive win of the tour so far, the Johnnies beat the Ravens by 17, 71-54, storming back from a 4 point half time deficit, they outscored the Raven by 21 in the 2nd half.

Oh Canada! St. John's North Country Tour

A Very Quick Preview
The NCAA banned these excursions as this fall, St. John's, having signed the contract to play before the ban, is exempt. The Johnnies may be one of the last universities to head North to get an early start on season with an extended exhibition. St. John's is scheduled to play a pair of "double headers" with 4 CIS university squads, McGill University, University of Quebec at Montreal, Carleton University and Ottawa University, over a two day period. Though technically these games are not double headers (St. John's will travel from McGill to UQAM's gym on Saturday, and from Carlton's facility to Ottawa's on Sunday), the schedule is fairly strenuous, and the staff will be forced by circumstances, to reach deep into the bench to keep pace. Between the two days, Sunday's schedule should be the more challenging, as the Johnnies face the Carleton University Ravens, winners of the CIS Championship in 6 of the last 7 seasons. The CIS (Canadian Interuniversity Sports) is the Canadian counterpart to the NCAA, and like the NCAA, they sponsor a nationwide post season tournament to determine a "national" champion. Carleton's coach, Dave Smart, has coached the Canadian National team for a number of years, leading them in a number of international competitions. The Ravens have been a regular stop for high-major teams heading North for the Labor Day Weekend, Coach Smart's squad has faced Villanova and Louisville out of the Big East in prior tours, defeating Alabama and playing Illinois of the Big Ten very closely.

The University of Ottawa Gee Gees are most likely the second most difficult stop on the tour. The Gee Gees finished 2nd in their conference (the OUA - East Division...not sure about the OUA abbreviation) to Carleton last season, and placed 5th in the CIS Tournament. The Johnnies will face the Gee Gees about 6 hours (and a cross town trip) after they complete their game with Carleton. The University of Quebec at Montreal (UQAM) Citadins (roughly translated, "townies" or "urbans") finished with an 8-8 record in their conference last season (the Quebec Conference), but did not compete in the CIS Tournament. McGill finished in a last place tie in the Quebec Conference in 2009, though the Redmen did have 17-15 record overall.

There is no reliable way to compare teams from the two organizations, but in the past Carleton has been described as a mid-major level program (RPI in the 70-110 range?), while the others scale down accordingly.

The Red Storm Beats...the Redmen?!
In an unusual case of nom deja vu (no pun intended...ok, maybe), the Red Storm defeated the McGill University Redmen, 90-55, this afternoon in Montreal. The game was competitive for the first quarter as the Redmen led the Red Storm 20-12, but St. John's turned on the burners in the second quarter to take a 52-26 lead into the locker room at the half. McGill never got back into it -- walk-on Kevin Clark was the last of 12 Red Storm players to whom the staff allocated minutes. McGill's website posted a recap of the game. Anthony Mason did not make the trip, the staff is playing it safe after he tweaked a hamstring in Thursdays practice. Only Dele Coker did not see action. Processing the box score (.pdf format) yielded these efficiency stats for the teams...

						FTA
Team	Pace	ORtg	eFG%	TOV	OR%	FGA	Ast%	Stl%	PPWS
St. John's	84.2	107.0	59.0	19.0	35.7	22.4	23.7	22.6	1.21
McGill	84.2	65.4	42.1	33.3	9.4	22.8	52.4	5.9	0.87

The pace, 84.2, tags this as an exhibition game. Among the high-majors, only North Carolina (and a few others) play routinely for that many possessions. Some of the good news...
1. The Red Storm logged an offensive rating of 107.0, one of the best offensive performances they have had in Coach Roberts' tenure. Check the PPWS -- at 1.21 the Johnnies were efficient from the floor, but also finished at the line when they were fouled.
2. Turnovers (TOV) and field goal efficiency (eFG%) showed improvement over last season.
3. Limiting McGill to an offensive rating (points per 100 possessions) of 65.4 is strong. It suggests that St. John's defended the shot well (indeed, note the Redmen's eFG% -- 42.1 is borderline stymied), provided very few 2nd chance opportunities (OR% of 9.4 is crushing on the defensive boards), and forced an extraordinarily high number of turnovers (TOV -- at 33.3 means McGill lost 1 in 3 possessions, most likely without getting a shot off).

A few areas of concern for the staff might include an offensive rebound rate of 35.7 and an assist rate of 23.7. In Big East snagging 35.7% of their misses would be very good, but given the Red Storm's absolute control of the defensive boards, I would have expected something over 40%, most likely in the range of 45-55. Strong shooting (except 3 pointers) may account for level of offensive rebounding. A "good" assist rate tends to depend on the type of offense the staff implements. Traditional half court sets and many (but not all) motion-oriented offenses rely on pick and roll, penetration and kick-out, or screens with catch-and-shoot plays. Frankly I am not familiar with the offense Coach Roberts runs. But whatever it is, it is not designed to have players shooting 18.8% from beyond the arc. The breakouts for the players...

							FTA
Players	Min%	Poss%	Shot%	eFG%	PPWS	ORtg	FGA	OR%	DR%
Hardy	65.0	18.9	23.0	40.0	0.80	77.3	0.0	0.0	4.8
Stith	65.0	11.7	6.9	66.7	1.54	140.5	200.0	5.5	24.0
Lawrence	57.5	18.0	18.2	42.9	0.86	68.7	0.0	6.2	21.7
Horne	52.5	14.2	17.1	75.0	1.50	143.7	0.0	0.0	17.9
Roberts	50.0	16.8	20.9	64.3	1.29	127.2	0.0	0.0	6.3
Brownlee	47.5	27.9	22.0	50.0	1.13	80.7	28.6	0.0	19.7
Kennedy	47.5	22.3	25.1	50.0	1.06	112.2	37.5	15.0	26.3
Boothe	37.5	24.0	15.9	100.0	1.84	132.0	75.0	9.5	16.7
Evans	35.0	28.7	34.1	50.0	1.00	94.8	0.0	30.6	35.7
Burrell	20.0	38.8	29.9	100.0	1.79	122.5	25.0	35.7	15.6
Thomas	17.5	18.5	25.6	66.7	1.33	147.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
Clark	5.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.00	0.0	NA	0.0	0.0

I sorted the table by Min%, though the starting lineup was Burrell, Boothe, Roberts, Horne and Kennedy, those five did not get the largest allocation of minutes. The starters in fact logged about 42% of total minutes, again consistent with exhibitions (particularly those which are over by half-time). Along with the familiar faces on offense (Burrell, Kennedy and Evans), it appears that JUCOs Dwight Hardy and Justin Brownlee will bring something to the table. Hardy however, will have to do better than 0-5 from 3 point range if the Johnnies offense is to have a credible perimeter game. Otherwise it just becomes too easy to concentrate on the front court players and shut the Reds' offense down.

The latest word from Montreal has St. John's beating UQAM by 40, 102-62. I will post the breakdown later.

Chicken Counting 2010, part I

Villanova's All Time Scoring Leader...Reviewing the Numbers
The all-time leading Wildcat scorer is Kerry Kittles (1992-96), who scored 2,243 points over a 4 year career that saw Villanova win the NIT for the 1st time (becoming 1 of 18 programs to win both the NCAA and the NIT) in his sophomore season, and the Big East Tournament in his junior season. Kerry scored his 2,243 points over the course of 122 games, averaging 18.4 points per game. Scottie currently ranks #15 in the list, just above Tom Inglesby (1970-73, 1,616) with 1,620 points, scored over the course of 105 games. There are two elements (health aside...) to factor in determining if Scottie can match (or exceed) Kerry Kittle's record...

1. How many points does he need?  and
2. How many games will he have to score them?

As to the first question -- 624 points, as posed in the title to a thread posted over at Villanova's VUSport's board last week is the answer. 623 points will tie Kittles' lifetime scoring record, 624 and the record is Scottie's alone. Scoring 600 points in a season has been accomplished only 19 times by (only) 15 players (yes, for the record Howard Porter & Keith Herron scored > 600 points twice during their careers on the Main Line; Kerry Kittles did it three times). The last player to score over 600 points in a season was Dante Cunningham in 2009. Dante scored 612 points in his senior season, leading the Wildcats to a #3 seed in the NCAAs ending in the Final Four. Dante was, by the way, only the third player of the Jay Wright Era to score 600 points -- Randy Foye in 2006 (his senior season) scored 677 points and Alan Ray, with 604 points in his sophomore season (2004) -- are the other two. Should Scottie reach the 600 point mark, it would be only the 5th time since 1950-51 that Villanova teams would have had 600+ point scorers in back-to-back seasons. And only the second time that the feat would have been accomplished by two different players.

Will Scottie have enough games? This is the least certain factor. We know that the Wildcats will play at least 31 games; 30 in the "regular season" and (at least) one Big East Tournament game -- and Scottie is virtually certain to play in (if not start) every one of those games. The math suggests he would have to average at least 20.1 points per game, a scoring pace comparable to Randy Foye's 20.5 ppg in 2006 (and Mike Bradley's 20.8 ppg in 2001), but not as demanding as Kerry Kittles' 21.4 average in 1995 (Kerry scored 706 points in 33 games that season) to have a chance of breaking Kittles' record. If however the 2010 squad plays about the same number of games as the past few seasons, count on Reynolds having between 33 and 35 (maybe more?) games with which to work. At 35 games Scottie will have to average better than 17.8 ppg, comparable to Doug West's 1989 season (17.9 -- he scored 608 points in 34 games) or Chris Ford's 1972 season (also 17.9 -- he scored 500 points in 28 games). With the lack of inside scoring early for the Wildcats Reynolds may have a few early season opportunities to build a good ppg, but best outcomes for the team would be healthy point production from a number of squad members, both in the low post and out on the perimeter.

Milestones & Guide Posts
Even if he has at best a small chance of breaking or even getting close to Kerry Kittles' record, chances are excellent Scottie will pass the 2,000 point career mark and become only the eighth Villanovan in that exclusive club. Alan Ray joined the group in 2006, and Kerry Kittles before Ray. Needing 380 points, a point total Reynolds has exceeded in each of his three preceding seasons, expect (if he plays all games next season and averages 15-16 points per game -- his average currently is 15.2) Scottie to pass the 2,000 mark about 2/3s of the way through the Big East regular season -- sometime in the second/third week of February. For the counters -- if Scottie's ppg > 15.2, move the "record game" up; if his ppg < 15.2, move the "record game" back. In any event, should the Wildcats play 33 or more games in 2010 and should Scottie appear in all of them, he will have tied or broken the record for most games played, 138, shared by Gary Massey and Doug West (both 1985-89).