Guest Contributor Ray Floriani -- At the Holiday Festival

by Ray Floriani

New York City - The format of the MSG Holiday Festival went through another alteration. Up until a few years ago it was contested just after Christmas. Since then it has been before December 25th and this season was not a true tournament. No semifinal and final doubleheader -- just a twin bill -- this past Saturday at Madison Square Garden.

The Holiday Festival logo

The scores:

Rutgers	67		58	Stony Brook
St. John's	56		50	Fordham

Possession and efficiency:

		Off.
	Poss.	Eff.
Stony Brook	66	88
Rutgers	63	106

View of MSG

		Off.
	Poss.	Eff.
Fordham	68	73
St. John's	68	83

Notes & Points of Emphasis
1. Rutgers was tested.
The American East representatives, Stony Brook worked hard on the offensive glass showing a 46-32% edge in offensive rebounding percentage. Rutgers coach Mike Rice pointed out , partially in jest, that his Scarlet Knights (6-5) had too much holiday spirit and were willing to give up second chances to the Seawolves. Stony Brook did not have an easy time finishing those opportunities showing only a 13-9 lead in second chance points. Stony Brook (3-6) basically lived on the perimeter and shot better from three (7 of 24 for 29%) than from two (9 of 36 and 25%). Rutgers shot 56% from two en route to a 54% eFG mark. Both teams had identical and sloppy 24% TO rates. Myles Mack of Rutgers led all scorers with 22 points. The freshman guard did not start but proved the old axiom 'it is more important who finishes rather than starts the game'. Mack used 18% of the Scarlet Knight possessions and obviously was very much involved.

Rutgers coach Mike Rice feels his team was in a holiday mode
giving too many offensive rebounding 'gifts'

2. Fordham is improved
They entered MSG at 4-5. Tom Pecora is getting double figure scoring from three players, none are seniors. Junior Chris Gaston leads at 14.6 PPG while the backcourt of sophomore Branden Frazier (10.0) and freshman Devon McMillan (11.6) has been effective.

Against St. John's there were opportunities. Gaston got inside but struggled to finish. He scored 11 points, grabbed 14 rebounds (5 offensive) but was 4 of 16 from the field. Both clubs failed to hit 40% eFG with Fordham at 36% and St. John's not much better with 38%. The young Ram backcourt did a nice job caring for the ball with a 15% TO rate, compared to St. John's' 22%. Red Storm got the big and arguable game decisive advantage on the offensive glass. They showed a 42-24% dominance in offensive rebounding percentage. God's Gift Achiuwa (5) and Moe Harkness (3) accounted for half of the 16 St. John's offensive boards. Harkness, a 6-8 freshman swing man, had a nice 13 point, 16 rebound double-double.

3. St. John's has concerns
The Red Storm is now 5-5. Beyond the .500 won-lost record are other issues. The exit of Nurideen Lindsey further depletes an already thin squad. In the first half against Fordham the starters went the entire way. For the game, four players put in the full forty minutes. The only one who did not was freshman guard Sir Dominic Pointer who put in 36 minutes and spelled by Malik Stith for only 4 minutes. The biggest concerns in this situation are foul trouble -- the Storm do zone frequently to stay out of that situation -- and injuries. They can ill afford an injury to anyone. With Big East play and its physical nature, practices, plus Winter and the illnesses it can bring coming up, St. John's will be embarking on conference play in a very tenuous circumstance.

The Stony Brook band entertained
and enjoyed their MSG appearance

Preview -- Villanova vs Stony Brook

The Stony Brook Seawolves are Villanova's opening day mid-major, as they complete the third year of a home-n-away (n-home) contract. The Wildcats will host the Seawolves at the Pavilion this year. Maybe if Villanova's fans resolve the lingering question about the Stony Brook mascot ("What is a Seawolf anyway?") the Wildcats will be able to move on...

What Others Say...
... Blue Ribbon gives the backcourt a B, the frontcourt a C and the bench/depth a B. Blue Ribbon, Lindy's and Athlon project Stony Brook as a middling finisher in the American East Conference. "...The Seawolves will force a quicker pace and have much better outside shooting, giving them a chance to get to .500 in the conference..." (Lindy's). The American East coaches picked Stony Brook to finish 7^th in the 9 member conference.

Why Everyone Believes...
...Stony Brook returns senior point guard Mitchell Beauford and (5^th year) senior guard Ricky Lucas (who, like Scottie Reynolds, hails from Herndon, VA), the two offensive mainstays from last season's club. Each played more than 70% of the minutes at their positions, and together they controlled 55.7% of the team's possessions and took 61.1% of the shots when they were on the floor. Having invested a year in developing these two, along with sophomore guard Eddie Castellanos and senior center Emanuel Neto, head coach Steve Pikiell may well believe this is the payoff year. He has brought in transfers and JUCOs to address some of the weaknesses exposed last year -- 3 point shooter Michael Tyree, for example, and Nick Carter, a 6-1 point guard transfer (should Beauford prove more useful as a 6^th man).

So Far...
The 'Cats enter this game coming off a 5-0 exhibition game run that goes back to September. Their most recent effort against Bloomsburg State produced a 47 point victory. Shane Clark and Corey Fisher were DNP. Tune-ups, if any for the Seawolves, were closed scrimmages as Stony Brook did not play any exhibitions.

Stony Brook By the Numbers...
Stony Brook is a member of the American East Conference, whose conference RPI rank has ranged from the high teens to the mid-twenties (they were ranked #20 last season). The top AE teams typically have RPIs in the 50 - 100 range; the lowest ranked teams will range from 250 - 300+. Stony Brook has finished at the bottom of the AE conference two years running (showing an RPI of #280 last season) with a record of 9-20. Stony Brook was a slighty lower than average pace team last season (65.3 possessions, adjusted, via Ken Pomeroy's Stony Brook Scout Page which ranks the Seawolves #221 out of approx. 336 - the current average for pace is 67.5). The Seawolves played decently enough on defense (again from Ken Pomeroy's Scout Page...) -- 104.2 adjusted (#190), but had a terrible time producing points -- offensive efficiency adjusted was 88.9 (#312 out of 336). Stony Brook's field goal efficiency (eFG) was an anemic 43.6 (#324), though their defense for shots was a bit better (50.8, #205). While they definitely had problems hitting 3s (0.311 -- #292), the real weakness for the Seawolves was their 2 point shooting percentage (0.426 -- #326).

Frontcourt vs frontcourt...
Stony Brooks' rotation of Emmanual Neto (6-9 center 4.8 ppg, 5.5 rpg), Rio Pitts (6-7 sophomore forward, 1.8 ppg, 1.6 rpg), Demetrius Young (6-6 forward, transfer) and Andrew Goba (6-9 junior forward, 0.6 ppg, 1.5 rpg) will match up against Villanova's Dante Cunningham (6-8 junior pf/c, 8.7 ppg, 5.4 rpg), Shane Clark (6-7 junior sf/pf, 6.7 ppg, 4.0 rpg), Antonio Pena (6-8 redshirt freshman), Casiem Drummond (6-10 sophomore center, 1.7 ppg, 1.9 rpg) and Andrew Ott (6-10 redshirt freshman). If the staff is comfortable with Dante's progress, Drum, Pena and Ott may see more minutes. If Stony Brook runs an up tempo game Shane may get a lot of minutes (and stats). Cunningham and Pena have provided the frontcourt scoring so far, though Drummond, not prolific, has been efficient as another option. Drummond had a very good game against Bloomsburg in the Wildcats last exhibition outing.

Backcourt vs backcourt...
Stony Brook's rotation combines the very experienced duo of Ricky Lucas (redshirt senior 15.2 ppg, 5.0 rpg) and Mitchell Beauford (redshirt senior 12.2 ppg, 3.5 rpg) and returning sophomore Eddie Castellanos (3.8 ppg, 2.2 rpg) with well regarded JUCOs Nick Carter (Suffolk Community College) and Michael Tyree (Seward Community College). Competing to join the mix will be (last year's) academic casualty Chris Martin, a 6-1 pg from Christ the King in Queens. Villanova will play Scottie Reynolds, BE ROY last year with Reggie Redding and freshmen Corey Fisher (freshman, NJ 2007 POY[Note: Fisher was held out of the Bloomsburg exhibition game due to tendinitis & may be held out of the Stony Brook game as well]), Corey Stokes (freshman, St. Benedict's, 2007 MDAA) and Malcolm Grant (freshman, 2006 NYC PSAL POY). This may provide an interesting contrast of experience (SBU) versus youth and athleticism (Nova). Reynolds, as expected, has been Villanova's leading scorer during their five game exhibition run. Expect that to continue throughout the year. Corey Stokes has emerged as the second scoring option, with Grant providing a third scoring option among the guards.

Last thoughts...
Last year Villanova's senior-led squad lit up the Seawolves 72-44, in their Long Island gym. Against the Canadian competition and Bloomsburg, Coach Wright appeared to experiment with the lineups. The Philadelphia Inquirer's recent article, "Villanova's lineup still a work in progress" suggests the staff (ie Coach Jay Wright) has not yet fixed on a specific rotation. The possibilities offered by the 5 entering players (3 true freshmen and 2 redshirt freshmen), coupled with the comparatively young returning nucleus (4 juniors, 2 starters; 3 sophomores, 1 - 2 starters) provide the staff with lineup combinations that could emphasize height or speed, a three guard scheme or a very traditional scheme, a standard 4-out 1-in motion or the pro-style isolations favored by the Foye/Ray/Lowry teams of 2004-06. The game may be closer than anticipated if...

• The staff employs a very large rotation (more than 9 players for example -- last year versus Stony Brook the staff used 12 players total, giving 10 players double digit minutes), this game may well be closer than anticipated.
• Stony Brook wing players get their shots off (and they are accurate). Stony Brook promises to finally put some good outside shooting on the court (Carter in particular, but also Tyree & Martin), so the 'Cats may be challenged to counter with better perimeter defense than they had last season.
• Stony Brook's maturity and D1 experience trumps Villanova' youth and athleticism.

I expect Villanova to dominate in the frontcourt and backcourt, the question will be "How big a margin"? If the game becomes more competitive than last year's matchup, the staff may tip their hand by giving disproportionate minutes to those 6 - 8 players who have performed best in practice so far.