NCAA East Region -- How the East Was Won

By the Numbers...
This was supposed to be a match-up of stud freshmen guards, Kendall Marshall for North Carolina versus Brandon Knight for Kentucky, but though Knight took the pg spot on the All-Region team and the Region MVP award, it was not the Kentucky freshman who drew his UNC counterpart on defense. That task went to junior DeAndre Liggins who received a rare start over freshman Doron Lamb, one of several Friday-to-Sunday adjustments Kentucky Coach John Calipari made as preparation for the Regional Final. When the final buzzer sounded Kentucky had earned the last ticket to Houston, affirmed by their 76-69 win over the University of North Carolina. How did the highest remaining seed (a #2, OSU having fallen Friday night) get sent home? The breakdown by halves...

	First		Second		Total
Pace	36.1		36.8		72.9
	Kentucky				North Carolina
	First	Second	Total		First	Second	Total
Rating	105.4	103.3	104.3		83.2	106.0	94.7
eFG%	56.7	61.5	58.9		40.0	51.6	46.0
TORate	16.6	21.7	20.4		24.5	24.8	26.1
OR%	22.2	31.3	26.5		31.6	29.4	30.6
FTA/FGA	23.3	34.6	28.6		26.7	21.9	24.2
FTM/FGA	13.3	23.1	17.9		20.0	18.8	19.4
ARate	64.3	53.8	59.3		63.6	37.5	48.1
Blk%	3.3	7.1	8.9		10.0	6.3	8.1
Stl%	10.9	7.3	13.1		16.3	9.9	13.0
PPWS	1.14	1.26	1.19		0.89	1.10	1.00
2FG%	42.1	46.7	44.1		39.1	65.2	52.2
3FG%	54.5	54.5	54.5		28.6	11.1	18.8
FT%	57.1	66.7	62.5		75.0	85.7	80.0
%2FG	42.1	36.8	39.5		60.0	76.9	69.6
%3FG	47.4	47.4	47.4		20.0	7.7	13.0
%FT	10.5	15.8	13.2		20.0	15.4	17.4

The possession-based stats confirm what everyone who watched knew -- though the game was played at a pace comfortable for the Tar Heels, Coach Roy Williams' North Carolina squad had a terrible first half. UNC's first half offense encountered three problems...
1. Turnover rate of 24.5%, the first half provided fewer scoring opportunities than expected for an offense that typically yields 1.12 points per possession.
2. Field goal attempts did not fall -- note the highlighted (yellow) eFG%; 40.0% is not fatal, but coupled with a
3. A surprisingly modest offensive rebound rate meant that misses on the first try ended tallied as empty trips. The rebounding fall off was all the more surprising given the presence of John Henson and Tyler Zeller, two players ranked (#90 & #235 respectively) in Ken Pomeroy's Top 500 Offensive Rebounders.

The Wildcats took an eight point cushion (38-30) into the intermission, and North Carolina spent much of the second half in a four-to-eleven point limbo, their runs slowed by multiple empty trips...uncharacteristic for the Tar Heels this season.

Neutralizing the Front Court Edge
Coach Calipari, from the post game press conference:

What we were doing with Zeller was we were meeting him early so he couldn't bury you under the basket...the second thing we did on the right side facing the court, if he's on that side we were going to trap big to big. The left side we were digging guards, they were digging down, that's what we tried to do...

Through much of the first half the gameplan worked. Zeller was limited under the basket (when he managed to get position, he was effective) as Harrellson was effective shunting him to one side of the lane or the other. And when he faded to the right side...

Tyler Zeller (44) doubled by Josh Harrellson (55 - right)
and Terrence Jones (3 - left). Zeller does not have a clear pass to
John Henson, whose left arm is visible
above Harrellson's head. Unlike Marquette's Davante Gardener Friday,
Jones moved decisively to double Zeller. The pass was picked off

The Wildcats were also helped immensely by Henson's absence. The junior forward was whistled for his second foul at 10:07 of the first half. To that point Henson had five rebounds (1-4), and Coach Williams decided to leave him in. The gamble backfired as Henson was tagged with his third foul about 3:30 minutes (and two rebounds) later. Henson sat for the balance of the first half (about 6:39 minutes) and played for about four minutes of the second half before picking up foul number four. Henson returned to the bench for about nine more minutes before Coach Williams had to put him back in. Henson fouled out with less than 20 seconds on the clock, but the sophomore, who logged nearly 1,000 minutes during the season and played for 32 minutes Friday against Marquette, played just 24 minutes against Kentucky. He gathered nine rebounds and scored four points in his 24 minutes of playing time, versus 12 rebounds, 14 points and five blocks versus Marquette. For the season, Henson averaged 10.1 rebounds and 11.7 points per outing.

Kentucky forward Josh Harrellson (55) found Justin Knox (25)
an easier assignment.

The First Five Minutes
From Josh Harrellson's post game comments...

...the first five minutes of each half really dictates the game. You always want to come out and play strong and...we played aggressive, played together as a team and that really dictates what's going to happen throughout the first half...I think we did a good job coming out and dictating the whole game and running our stuff and keeping them out of their basketball game.

A breakdown of the box score confirms the senior forward assertion...

	Pts	Poss	ppp	eFG%
North Carolina	6	9	0.67	37.5%
Kentucky	11	9	1.22	64.3%

The Wildcats had a five point advantage coming out of those first five minutes of the game. They stretched it by three more points over the last 15 minutes of the first half. The Tar Heels managed to drop another point behind the Wildcats over the first five minutes of the second half, setting the score at 47-38. And through the balance of the second half the 'Heels managed to outscore the 'Cats 31-28, but it was too little too late. Throughout the second half North Carolina was able to regain the offensive advantage, knotting the score at 67 at the 3:18 mark, but when they needed a stop on Ketucky's next possession, they could not get it. Brandon Knight hit a three point shot 20 seconds later to put the Wildcats on top for good. Through the end of the game, Kentucky outscored North Carolina 9-2, scoring on four of those last five possessions.

The Back Benchers
When asked about getting the starting nod over freshman Doron Lamb, junior DeAndre Liggins seemed nonchalant, "It wasn't...(a) big deal to me. Coach say he is going to start me, no disrespect to Doron...we play six guys, so it doesn't matter. And Doron came out and hit some shots for us to help us out..." The motivation for starting the game with Kentucky's best defensive player on the floor was intended as a game changer, but Liggins, at 6-6 often found himself guarding a taller wing, rather than the assignment he drew Sunday -- UNC's freshman guard Kendall Marshall. "...DeAndre was going to pick up the ball to try to slow down Marshall, because if Marshall had his way I thought it would be a problem..." Calipari explained, "Because I think he's (Marshall) changed their team and I think he's a terrific basketball player. And I thought that DeAndre could stunt off of him and stunt and dig into the post. And just try to bother him..." Calipari finished with a modest "...I don't know if it did (work)...", but the 6-3 Marshall shot converted 2-10 from the field, including a brutal 1-5 from beyond the arc. Although he managed to dish eight dimes, Marshall also had three turnovers. Liggins, Harrellson and Darius Miller combined to go 12-24 from the field, including 4-7 from the three point line to score 35 of Kentucky's 76 points.

Miller (1) hits a jumper over Harrison Barnes (40)
in the 2nd half two of the eventual 11 points he scored

Calipari refered to Josh Harrellson's conditioning along with Miller and Liggins' improvement over the course of the season, several times on Friday, and returned to the topic four times in the Sunday press conference

Guest Contributor Ray Floriani: NCAA East Region Semi-Finals

by Ray Floriani

NEWARK, NJ - Probably fitting with a city of Newark's long history there will be a regional final between two programs with a lengthy, stored tradition of their own. Kentucky will face North Carolina Sunday for the right to go to Houston.

The Nasto's stand at the Fanfest.
Received a complimentary reginette (it is very good) from the staff.

The scores...

Team	Score			Team
North Carolina	81		63	Marquette
Kentucky	62		60	Ohio State

The game one pace and possessions saw the Tar Heels stepped things up and dictate a tempo more in their favor. Only a strong second half salvaged any offensive efficiency for Marquette. At intermission their OE was an almost unprintable 44.

Marquette players at the anthem

The pace and efficiency:

tr>td>North Carolina

		Off.
	Poss.	Eff.
Marquette	73	86
69	117

The Four Factors:

		FTA
	eFG%	FGA	OR%	TO%
Marquette	48	24	41	25
North Carolina	51	19	48	10

A tale of two halves. A first half 19-0 run by the Tar Heels basically opened up the game and was a deciding factor. Marquette trailed 40-15 at the half. In addition they had 12 turnovers, 6 field goals, zero assists and a 35% TO rate. The second half they shot and defended better but never seriously challenged North Carolina. That 25 point spot midway was too much to overcome.

the packed Rock

North Carolina owned a 29-15 edge in points off turnovers, the damage done mostly the first half. They also outscored Marquette 46-32 in points in the paint. In somewhat of a stat oddity, Marquette led 42-5 in bench points. Two reasons. Non-starters, Davante Gardner (16 points) and Jae Crowder (11) were two of Marquette's better point producers. Secondly, Roy Williams used a short, in numbers, rotation with six players getting 21 or more minutes.

Buzz Williams in the post game press conference
More questions than answers...

The Second Game
Game two, no surprise in the pace. These teams were content to grind this one out.

		Off.
	Poss.	Eff.
Kentucky	59	105
Ohio State	60	100

The Four Factors:

		FTA
	eFG%	FGA	OR%	TO%
Kentucky	52	25	26	19
Ohio State	38	29	39	12

The obligatory cheer shot.
Yours truly with the North Carolina cheer squad

Brandon Knight was 2 for 10 when he tried to come off a pick and roll, was defended, and opted for a mid-range jumper instead. The shot found the bottom of the net and proved to be the difference in the Kentucky victory. The late season maturity of Knight cannot be measured statistically. On the game he was 3 of 10 (1 of6 from three) for nine points. But in the stretch the freshman guard stepped up to hit a big trey before the game winner. Don't forget, he scored two points, again the game decider in the first round win over Princeton. With Knight, it's quality not quantity.

Kentucky was hit hard on the offensive glass. Normally they give up a 30% OREB percentage to their opposition. Ohio State put up above average numbers on the offensive glass, largely due to Jared Sullinger's 8 offensive boards.

The Wildcats, though , compensated with a strong showing on defense, limiting turnovers and having Brandon Knight on the floor in the clutch.

Notes
Attendance was 18,343...North Carolina was led by Tyler Zeller with 27 points 12 boards. John Henson teamed with Zeller to form a tough inside game. Henson added 14 points, a dozen rebounds and 5 blocks...Marquette finishes at 22-15.…Marquette's perimeter threat Darius Johnson-Odom struggled through a 2 of 9 shooting night finishing with 7 points…Jared Sullinger led all scorers in game two with 21 points…Josh Harrellson paced Kentucky with 17...Some Manley numbers:

	Manley
	Efficiency
Tyler Zeller, UNC	35
Josh Harrellson, UK	27
Jared Sullinger OSU	26
DeAndre Liggins, UK	21
John Henson, UNC	20
Harrison Barnes, UNC	20
Davante Gardiner, Marquette	17

On a per minute basis, Zeller's efficiency was an off the charts 1.30. Zeller played 27 minutes. Jimmy Butler of Marquette had a solid 16 efficiency. Johnson-Odom struggled, as noted, with a -2 metric. Kentucky's Brandon Knight had only a 4 efficiency. No complaints, I'm sure, from coach Cal, given the outcome.

The Rock about 1:30 am after a long but enjoyable evening

Guest Contributor Ray Floriani: North Carolina at Rutgers (at MSG)

by Ray Floriani
NEW YORK CITY - A featured game with North Carolina at Madison Square Garden closed the books on Rutgers non-conference schedule. Unfortunately for the Scarlet Knights, the 78-55 loss left some questions needing resolution with Big East play just days away.

Pre-game warmups
about an hour prior to the tip

Pace & Efficiency:

		Off.
	Poss.	Eff.
North Carolina	76	103
Rutgers	76	72

North Carolina enjoys a brisk pace in the seventies while Rutgers is a mid-sixties tempo team. UNC forced the pace and kept the advantage through the duration.

The Four Factors:

		FTA
	eFG%	FGA	OR%	TO%
North Carolina	56	15	31	21
Rutgers	38	17	17	21

Roy Williams and the Tar Heels huddle

Observations:
The First Four
As noted many times the first four minutes of each half can set the tone for the game. They did last night. North Carolina got out to a 7-2 lead after those first few minutes. A five point advantage with 16 minutes to play the first half is not a huge mountain to scale. But the character of the game was set. UNC established a fast tempo. A tempo they wanted. Even Rutgers coach Mike Rice noted that his club got caught up in the fast pace, rushed things and failed to cash in on early opportunities.

Defense.
UNC mentor Roy Williams said his defense has been sporadic this year. Tonight it was on. The TO rate and Rutgers eFG mark are exhibits A and B. UNC also rejected 7 shots with 6-10 sophomore John Henson leading the way with four.

Rutgers' Offense
Rutgers struggled all night to get an offensive rhythm. Jonathan Mitchell led all scorers with 20 points on 7 of 14 shooting. Other than Mitchell, a few nice Dane Miller (8 points) moves in the paint and Austin Johnson's 7 points, that was it for Rutgers.

Ball Movement...
...for North Carolina was outstanding. The first half the movement constantly found an open shooter on the perimeter. Their half court spacing allowed for penetration and/or kick outs to the perimeter. In transition they always seemed to make that extra pass. Williams was thrilled that none on the starters were in double figures. The leading scorers, sophomore guard Leslie McDonald (14 points) and junior guard Justin Watts (10 points) both came off the bench.

About Determination
Mike Rice frequently alluded to 'determination' in the presser. The Rutgers coach was clearly upset with his team's effort. A frustrating point per Rice was the occasion when a player missed a shot or made a bad play the effort would be missing on the defensive end. "We can't have that," Rice said. "We are about defense we always have to be ready to defend no matter what happened on the offensive end."

The sign says it all

How can Carolina have four losses?
As Roy Williams noted the last two years have seen about a dozen changes in personnel. This is still a young team that on days will look like this and others not nearly as good. Chalk it up to growing pains.

About Barnes
Highly touted freshman Harrison Barnes had 9 points and 3 rebounds in 22 minutes. Williams said, while the game results do not always bear it out, Barnes is making great strides daily in practice.

Dexter Strickland's uncle
grants an interview

Numbers.
Rutgers is 9-3 while North Carolina improved to 9-4. UNC was 11 of 17 (65%) from two point range the first half. Tar Heels cooled off a bit the last twenty minutes finishing at 46%. North Carolina enjoyed a monumental 38-13 edge in points off the bench. Sophomore guard Dexter Strickland, a Rahway, NJ native who starred at prep power St. Patrick's in Elizabeth, enjoyed his homecoming with a 9 point 3 rebound outing. Rutgers starts Big East play Sunday at Villanova.

Rutgers' Mike Rice meets the media

greyCat note -- Rush the Court will do a Live Blog from the Pavilion as both teams open their Big East seasons on Sunday.

Guest Contributor Ray Floriani: At the NIT -- The Last Waltz?

by Ray Floriani

NEW YORK CITY - It was championship number three. Dayton defeated North Carolina 79-68 to win the 73rd NIT at Madison Square Garden. The Flyers previously won in 1962 and ‘68.

Madison Square Garden, NYC
The skies may have been Carolina Blue...
...but the sun shined on Dayton

The factors and numbers from a 70 (UNC 72 Dayton 68) possession game:

			FTM
	ORtg	eFG%	FGA	OR%	TO%
North Carolina	94	49	13	27	21
Dayton	116	58	17	32	16

Dayton had an outstanding offensive showing but the staples of defense and poise were crucial for the Atlantic Ten representatives. The Tar Heels were solid from the perimeter shooting 8 of 20 (40%) from beyond the arc. Junior forward Will graves did appreciable damage with a game high 25 points punctuated with a 7 of 13 performance from downtown. In the stretch when Dayton finally achieved game winning separation, the percentages from the perimeter caught up with UNC, a 26% three point shooting team in four prior NIT contests. Flyers did a significant job inside the arc limiting the Tar Heels to a 44% (18 of 41) night on two point field goals.

Turnovers, those forced by Dayton, was a significant factor. Brian Gregory’s club forced 10 first half TOs (a 26% rate) en route to a 45-32 halftime lead. Carolina cared for the ball better the final twenty minutes (only 5 turnovers) which helped get them back in it. A 7-0 opening run the first two minutes after intermission was very significant as well.

In the end that Dayton offensive efficiency was supported by a creditable 35% from three and of greater note, 62% (18 of 29) from two point range as the Flyers attacked the basket with a vengeance.

At the half UNC enjoyed a 38%-21% edge in offensive rebounding percentage. Dayton hit the boards harder the second half limiting the Tar Heels to two offensive boards the final 20 minutes and securing the edge on the offensive glass.

The double figure scorers and efficiency. The Martin Manley and NBA efficiency model adds points, rebounds, made shots, blocked shots, steals, and assists while subtracting turnovers and missed shots.

		Efficiency
Dayton	Pts.	Rtg	Min.
Marcus Johnson	20	16	0.533
Chris Johnson	14	18	1.06
Chris Wright	14	21	0.750
Paul Williams	16	17	0.654

		Efficiency
North Carolina	Pts.	Rtg	Min.
Will Graves	25	17	0.567
Deon Thompson	13	18	0.581
Larry Drew II	12	11	0.333
Tyler Zeller	11	5	0.217

Dayton numbers were solid across the board. Chris Johnson’s efficiency per minute metric was on a ’superstar’ level. Johnson added 9 boards in a 17 minute outing that was limited due to a hip injury suffered in the game. Drew II of UNC had 8 assists but his 6 turnovers were detrimental. Tyler Zeller, the tar Heels 7-foot soph who came on strong in the NIT, scored in doubles but his efficiency was hurt by a shutout in the rebounding department in a 23 minute evening.

Not in the box score. Deon Thompson set an NCAA record in the final. It was the UNC senior’s 152nd career game breaking the record shared by Kentucky’s Wayne turner (1996-99) and Walter Hodge of Florida (2006-09).

Not in the Box Score Part Two. Dayton led 17-8 in second chance points. A key stat considering rebounding was a Flyer concern entering the final.

The last...waltz? With talk of NCAA expansion to 96 teams the idea the NIT might have seen its last tournament was a topic of discussion. Both coaches felt the NIT being phased out would be unfortunate. As Brian Gregory said, “Dayton built its national brand name (years ago) here in the NIT at Madison Square Garden.”

Dayton is tempo free. Dayton assistant Jon Borovich said the Flyers study tempo free statistics closely. “Coach (Brian) Gregory will bring them up in staff meetings citing turnover rates and points per possession,” Borovich said before Tuesday’s semifinal. “We chart possessions on the bench as a staff and points per possession and other (tempo free) stats we pay close attention to.”

All Tournament...
Delroy James	Rhode Island
Will Graves	North Carolina
Deon Thompson	North Carolina
Marcus Johnson	Dayton
Most Outstanding Player - Chris Johnson Dayton

“You can’t measure heart and this team had the biggest heart of any team I coached” - Dayton coach Brian Gregory

“We just didn’t finish the job….I thought Brian’s (Gregory) team was so active, you just have to congratulate them.” - UNC coach Roy Williams

Dayton players greet their fans

The Fans. “It was like a home game,” Gregory said,” our fans are absolutely great and we put them through a lot this year.” Dayton players truly appreciated their outstanding and passionately devoted followers. Part of the celebration saw the players recognize the band and cheerleaders for their great support. They then went into the stands at the Garden to personally say thanks to their fans. The exclamation point on a wonderful night for Dayton and its faithful.

Flyer squad poses with
the Dayton Cheering Squad

Guest Contributor Ray Floriani: Semifinals at the NIT

by Ray Floriani

NEW YORK CITY - The nation’s oldest post season tournament has had its share of criticism. Make no mistake however, the NIT has history a wonderful tradition and last night four teams put it all on the line at the Garden. The NIT semifinal scores:

Team	Score		Team	Score
Dayton	68		Mississippi	63
North Carolina	68		Rhode island	67 (OT)

The factors and numbers from a 74 possession game:

			FTM
	ORtg	eFG%	FGA	OR%	TO%
Dayton	93	39	43	28	18
Mississippi	85	46	24	23	16

As has been the case throughout this tournament, Dayton did a great job on the defensive end. The Flyers haven’t forced teams into turning the ball over but get at you with tough man to man defense, contesting shots or forcing you to take a less advantageous shot.

The Flyers limited Mississippi to 6 of 23 shooting beyond the arc. Chris warren, Mississippi’s three point threat, scored 15 points but was 3 of 10 beyond the arc. Terrico White, another threat from downtown, led Ole Miss with 19 points but was an icy 1 of 7 from three.

Dayton does a good job getting in the lane and conversely getting to the line. The Flyers made the most of those opportunities from the charity stripe as the FT Rate and a 24 of 32 mark from the charity stripe attests. The Flyers hit 3 of 4 the final 11 seconds to punch their ticket to the final. Chris Johnson, Dayton’s 6-6 sophomore forward, led the way with a game high 22 points while adding 9 rebounds.

Competitiveness of the game is shown in these ‘enhanced scoring totals’

Points...	Dayton	Ole Miss
Off TOs	15	15
in Paint	20	20
fro. Bench	12	12

Outside the Garden

The four factors in an 81 possession game.

			FTM
	ORtg	eFG%	FGA	OR%	TO%
North Carolina	84	36	10	47	21
Rhode island	84	40	18	31	23

Rhode Island looks to push the pace and even for an overtime game this was a rapid tempo. An area of concern for URI was the offensive glass. The OREB Percentage shows Carolina’s dominance there. In raw numbers UNC had a 27-15 offensive rebounding edge. That led to the Tar Heels getting 15 more shot attempts (83 to 68) than URI.

Free throws were deceptive. URI had the edge in the FT rate and shot 12 of 18 from the line. In the stretch Rhody missed several from the charity stripe that could have iced the game while Carolina, 8 of 16 on the night, hit the key ones late and in OT.

Rhode Island, as expected, forced turnovers but had an unusually high TO Rate on their own. In ‘enhanced scoring’ North Carolina had huge edges in points in the paint (50-30) and bench scoring (23-4).

Deon Thompson struggled from the field shooting 6 of 20 but did lead UNC with 16 points and 13 rebounds. Keith Cothran led URI and all scorers with 23 points. Lsmont Ulmer had a solid night for Jim Baron’s club adding 18 points, 10 boards while shooting 8 of 12 from the floor.

A-10 Allegiance. During the NIT press conference on Monday, Dayton and Rhode island coaches and players in attendance I spoke with, to a person, all said they stayed up a little late last Thursday to watch and root for Xavier in their Sweet 16 OT loss to Kansas State. Even Dayton’s Chris Wright said, “I am a friend of (K-State guard Jacob)Pullen but I was on the edge of my couch pulling for Xavier. It’s good that people see how tough this (Atlantic Ten) league is.”

Some Dayton students I spoke with did not hold the same regard of Xavier. Especially members of the cheer squad who would “never root for Xavier”. It’s the rivalry as on telling them my alma mater, St.Bonaventure, is also in the A-10 they didn’t mind getting a picture.

Quotes
“We played a tough, physical team and found a way to pull it out. It was mental toughness”- Dayton coach Brian Gregory

“At halftime we emphasized finishing inside and staying on the backboards” - North Carolina coach Roy Williams

Ray Floriani with Dayton Cheering Squad