Side by Side -- Pittsburgh versus Villanova (via Tennessee)

Common Opponents to Find Comparison Points
Billed in the pre-season as the "two to beat" for the Big East title, both Villanova and Pittsburgh dropped a game against Bruce Pearl's Tennessee Volunteers. The time frame is pretty tight -- about 16 days separated the two games, so the data should be comparable. Controlling for possessions, how did Villanova's and Pittsburgh's offense and defense stack up against Tennessee? And what can that tell us about each team? Looking at the four factors breakdown, the shooting efficiency and point distribution for offense and defense...

Opponent		Tennessee
	Nova	Pitt
Pace	71.9	71.1
Location	Neutral	Home
Margin	-10	-8
Date	26-Nov	11-Dec
	Offense			Defense
	Nova	Pitt		Nova	Pitt
Rating	94.6	108.5		106.9	116.7
eFG%	38.6	50.9		47.2	63.5
TORate	18.1	18.1		21.1	28.1
OR%	34.9	39.4		43.9	44.0
FTA/FGA	63.2	63.6		77.8	62.5
FTM/FGA	42.1	40.0		46.3	45.8
ARate	50.0	56.0		77.3	51.9
Blk%	3.5	12.7		7.4	12.5
Stl%	11.1	7.0		8.5	12.6
PPWS	0.92	1.09		1.03	1.33
2FG%	44.4	48.7		40.5	54.1
3FG%	19.0	37.5		41.2	63.6
FT%	66.7	62.9		59.5	73.3
%2FG	47.1	48.7		39.5	48.2
%3FG	17.6	23.1		27.6	25.3
%FT	35.3	28.2		32.9	26.5

Controlling for...
No team had rotation-altering events -- no suspensions, nor major injuries. While both Tennessee and Villanova have had a some extra-program distractions, both were in the public domain prior to their scheduled game. Note that Tennessee played Villanova at Madison Square Garden while the Vols met the Panthers at the downtown arena in Pittsburgh. Neither Big East team enjoyed a true homecourt advantage, but location was hardly a push, advantage to Pitt.

Offense vs. Offense
If a top 10% offensive rating (adjusted per Ken Pomeroy) is considered elite, then count both Pitt and Villanova among the D1 elites. And that makes the offensive efficiencies posted by each team versus Tennessee all the more remarkable. I have to give Bruce Pearl this, he knows how to prepare his teams. He identified Villanova's heavy reliance on the Fisher/Wayns duo to jump start their offense, and promptly took that away (see the Tennessee-Villanova game flow at bottom). If the Wildcats' 94.6 rating (0.946 points per possession) is brutal, understand Pitt's own egg, 108.5 (or 1.085 ppp), comes from the #2 rated offense (adjusted) in D1, an offense that more typically generates about 122.8 points per 100 possessions. Both offenses were "off" by about 12%-17%. For Villanova, the Vols exposed their (over?) reliance on their back court duo to control the flow of the game and put enough points on the board to loosen up opposing defenses. Villanova's lack of offense was the game-turning element, extremely inefficient shot-to-point efficiency combined with their back court's inability to set the table for the team's other offensive elements. Pittsburgh could have survived an off night for their offense, if their defense had not collapsed.

Defense vs. Defense
Villanova maintained good shot defense versus Tennessee, the Vols were held to a <50 eFG%, as the 'Cats closed down the lane and held the Vols to 40% shooting inside the arc. Villanova allowed to many second chance opportunities and reverted to 2010's foul-prone form, putting the Vols on the line about three times for every four field goal attempts. Pittsburgh simply did not defend the shot well at all. The Vols torched the Panthers with an eFG% so high (63.5%) that it overwhelmed a turnover rate (28%) high enough that on most nights it would have cost the careless team the game. Not so on 12/11. The Vols also did an admirable job on their offensive boards (Villanova was better here than Pittsburgh by a very small margin), winning a game element that both Villanova and Pittsburgh expect to dominate. Pomeroy ranks Villanova's defense higher than Pitt's, #25 vs. #30, but like offense, both are in the upper 10% of D1 ball.

In the Flow...

NCAA Basketball

NCAA Basketball

[note -- Game Flows compliments of StatSheet.com]  In both games Tennessee jumped out to the lead about 3:30 to 5:00 into the first half, and their lead out steadily through until half time. While Villanova jumped back into the game with a strong second half run (they found the seams in the Vols' zone?), Pittsburgh seemed a step slower and actually lost ground, allowing the Vols to open a 20 point lead around the mid-point of that half. While the Panthers were able to close that margin to a more respectable -8 at the end, that Tennessee was able to maintain margins of double digits into the very last minute of the game suggests the Panther offense never found a counter to the Volunteer defense.

If the 'Cats and Panthers Played Today
At this point Pomeroy projects two wins for Pitt, a closer game at Villanova, with the return game accruing a larger winning margin to Pitt. A pace calculation based only the possession-rate from their Tennessee games suggests the two will play a very high-tempo game -- something in the range of 80 possessions. That won't happen, but do not minimize the importance of pace with respect to this match-up. Pitt's offense, especially shot conversion efficiency (eFG%) shows some sensitivity to pace. In games with higher than D1 average pace, Pitt's shot conversion efficiency (eFG%) tends to suffer. The Panthers normally convert at about a 53.1% eFG%. In the four games they played at a pace >70, the Panthers averaged an eFG% of 49.1%. Grabbing an early lead allows opponents to push the pace and keep the Panther offense off balance. Villanova struggles when they have to score on half court sets. Stop the guards and the Wildcats have to work to set up their other scorers. The Villanova roster contains a number of offensive options, but the guards have to take time to recognize the most appropriate option given the defense in front of them. Scoring early in the possession assures they will score often, and allow shot taking to follow in the offensive flow of the game.

Other Considerations
1. The two are slated to play a mirror series this season, with the first game coming in early February, to be featured on ESPN's GameDay series. While the game will be played in Villanova's on campus facility (the Pavilion), the all-day presence of television crews and support staff should be a massive distraction for the school of 6,500 undergraduates. Will it distract the host and blunt what should be a huge advantage? The mirror is scheduled, as the regular season closer, for the Peterson Event Center on Pitt's campus.

Guest Contributor Ray Floriani: NIT Tip-Off Tennessee Post Game

by Ray Floriani
NEW YORK CITY -- For the second straight year the Big East finished in a runner-up position int the Pre-Season NIT at Madison Square Garden. Tennessee defeated Villanova 78-68, in what was, a very defensive oriented contest.

Why do I give NJ transit ink?
They were 10 minutes late and the fare went up.

The Scores:

Consolation:
VCU	89		UCLA	85
Final:
Tennessee	78		Villanova	68

The Four Factors for the consolation:

		FTA
	eFG%	FGA	OR%	TO%
VCU	56	26	33	17
UCLA	54	15	52	26

VCU was devastated on the glass but extremely efficient overall. The pace was to the Rams' liking (UCLA 80 possessions, VCU 76) with Shaka Smart's club owning an impressive 117-106 edge in offensive efficiency. As noted, UCLA owned the backboards largely due to Tyler Honeycutt (13 rebounds) and Reeves Nelson (10). The turnover rate was a killer for the Bruins with Honeycutt and Reeves in the mix again, combining for 8 of the 21 Bruin miscues. Another encouraging sign for VCU was inside play. The Rams scored 34% of their points from three but displayed a nice presence in the paint in Jamie Skeen. The 6-9 senior scored a game high 23 points while grabbing a team high 9 boards.

Pace and Villanova-Tennessee Notes...

Outside MSG on Black Friday

Recorded the Villanova possessions with a time per possession breakdown for this game as well. Note the "manual" play by play recording will sometimes differ from the formula -- but not by much.

Villanova -- 1st Half:
Time	# Poss	TOs	Pts	PPP
0 - 14 sec.	23	8	24	1.04
= > 15 sec.	14	0	6	0.43
1st Total	37	8	30	0.81

Villanova -- 2nd Half:
Time	# Poss	TOs	Pts	PPP
0 - 14 sec.	27	4	29	1.07
= > 15 sec.	10	1	9	0.90
2nd Total	37	5	38	1.03
Game	74	9	68	0.92

In the first half Villanova had a larger percentage of faster (under 15 seconds) possessions. Both teams got back defensively and stopped transition as fast break points were 0-0 at halftime. The longer the Villanova possessions wore on the less efficient the offense was as Tennessee just locked down defensively with the clock ticking.

The second half saw the Wildcat efficiency an improvement in the longer possessions. Most of the charted possessions were of a faster variety as Villanova was playing catch up the latter part of the half. In other words, it was no time to get tentative and hold the basketball.

Villanova's Stokes inbounding
against the Vol defense

General Notes and Observations
Have a feeling a number of Big East opponents will contact Knoxville for a game tape of the final. Tennessee stopped the Villanova guards. Even coach Jay Wright commented, "we as a staff have to figure another way to play when our guards are shut down." That is not going to happen a great deal but it is a possibility against some of the elite defenses faced in Big east play.

UCLA wanted to stop transition and stay in front of the Villanova guards. They couldn't. Tennessee had the same game plan but with better defenders they were able to. Corey Fisher suffered through a 3 point 6 turnover night on 1 of 10 shooting.

Credit Scotty Hopson, a well deserved MVP, for a great deal of the defense imposed by Tennessee. Hopson, a 6-7 guard is very long, athletic and was quick enough to stay with and bother the Villanova backcourt.

Tennessee coach Bruce Pearl noted the other night how much fun it was to prepare for VCU, a team that does a lot of interesting things. Last night, Pearl said the same thing about Villanova, how well coached they are and the intriquing things they do offensively. Maybe Pearl is just happy to be breaking down film and game planning in staff meetings, after what has transpired off the court. On the other hand Pearl probably does truthfully admire how his two opponents in New York play. Pearl did note, "Villanova is about ball screens. They do that extremely well." Tennessee was ready for the ball screens and defended them extremely well.

The other night thought Wright made a good move zoning a little each half. Again Tennessee was ready by spreading the floor and creating gaps for penetrations that would up with inside shots or passes to the wing. Overall, Villanova needed to do a better job of closing out on weak side perimeter shooters.

In Wright's estimation the Tennessee defense not only suffocated the guards but negated any chances for easy baskets. Final count saw the Vols with a 9-2 edge in transition scoring.

As tough as Tennessee's defense was, the Wildcats did not turn the ball over. They had 13 turnovers but were under 20% for the TO rate.

Mouphtaou Yarou was a well deserved All-Tournament choice for the Wildcats. Yarou scored 15 points and added 5 rebounds. His continued contributions will be needed as the weeks go on.

Impressed with Dominic Cheek. He had a 10 point 6 rebound game and showed the versatility to mix it up inside or work on the perimeter.

Scotty Hopson, a well deserved MVP
for starring offensively and defensively

The Breakdown by Halves and a Few Comments
The first half was a defensive tug-of-war, while the second half was an offensive show. Tennessee won both.

Opponent	Tennessee
	1st	2nd	Game
Pace	35.8	36.6	72.4
	Offense				Defense
	1st	2nd	Game		1st	2nd	Game
Rating	83.8	103.9	94.0		97.8	117.6	107.8
eFG%	32.1	43.3	37.9		42.6	58.9	50.9
TORate	22.4	13.7	18.0		19.6	16.4	18.0
OR%	37.5	31.6	34.9		38.9	40.0	39.4
FTA/FGA	67.9	56.7	62.1		66.7	60.7	63.6
FTM/FGA	42.9	40.0	41.4		44.4	35.7	40.0
ARate	37.5	58.3	50.0		80.0	40.0	56.0
Blk%	14.3	6.7	10.3		7.4	7.1	7.3
Stl%	16.7	8.1	12.3		8.4	8.3	8.4
PPWS	0.81	0.99	0.90		0.98	1.19	1.08
2FG%	35.3	50.0	43.2		46.7	50.0	48.7
3FG%	18.2	20.0	19.0		25.0	75.0	37.5
FT%	63.2	70.6	66.7		66.7	58.8	62.9
%2FG	40.0	52.6	47.1		40.0	55.8	48.7
%3FG	20.0	15.8	17.6		25.7	20.9	23.1
%FT	40.0	31.6	35.3		34.3	23.3	28.2

Comments
1. Villanova lost the battle of the boards, a crucial element if the shots are not dropping.
2. The possessions/shots were again taken largely by the backcourt, with Wayns accounting for nearly 42% of the possessions and 30% of the shots. Fisher's possession/shot split was 31/23. Both had excruiciatingly low conversion efficiency. Wayns' eFG% was 27.3%, while Fisher's was 10.0% (yeah, that's not a typo, it was that low). Tennessee took these two right out of the game.
3. Wayns' assist rate was stronger than Fisher's, but the sophomore played a low percentage of minutes (as did Fisher). First half fouls, two apiece, kept Wayns off the floor for nearly half of the available minutes. Neither finished the game.
4. The balance of the squad, Yarou, Stokes, Pena and Sutton were efficient offensively, but all, Stokes excepted, were reduced to "Role Player" status.

The 2010 NIT Tip-Off -- A log5 Look at the Last Day

Last Call at the Garden
The semi-final games have decided the match-ups for the last round in the 2010 Tip-Off Tournament. Pythagoras may have prevailed with absolute accuracy, but the exact route was not as predictable (and nevertheless very interesting), as Ray Floriani reported in the previous post. Looking ahead to the Third Place and Championship games...

	--Adjusted--
Team	Pace	Off.	Def.	PWP
VCU	70.2	109.6	95.6	0.828
UCLA	67.9	109.1	91.5	0.882

The teams appear to be fairly evenly matched, both have efficient offenses, with the difference coming in defense. Will Coach Howland be able to use his larger front line effectively against the smaller (but more outside oriented) Rams? The pace and log5 projection...

	Projected
	Pace	Prob.
VCU	70.1	39.1
UCLA		60.9

UCLA prefers a more deliberate pace, and will probably want something that allows them to get points out of their offensive sets. The projected pace (70+) is a bit brisk, but not outside the Bruins' comfort zone. Looking at offensive and defensive differentials I get, despite a rather high margin of confidence favoring UCLA (60.9%), a close scoring game. If VCU hits their threes (and those will come from guards Joey Rodriguez, Brad Burgess and/or Brandon Rozzell), then Bruins may well spend most of the game playing catch-up with the Rams. They will have to go for the extra possessions to make up any gap in the scoring differences. Virginia Commonwealth will want to take >40 of their FGAs from beyond the arc, while UCLA has been effective at defending the three point line. The Rams' extended cold streak from deep against Tennessee has to have folks wondering if the Rams can pull an upset. Coach Smart's team will have to shoot better.

The Championship Game
The Tennessee - Villanova Final should be the fastest paced game of the tournament, the teams going out at about 73 possessions (games have been a possession or so higher than projected so far). Tennessee is a team that can run with Villanova...

	--Adjusted--
Team	Pace	Off.	Def.	PWP
Tennessee	70.2	108.1	88.6	0.909
Villanova	70.3	115.0	88.8	0.951

Villanova is ranked #6 on PWP, while Tennessee is #30. The margin is wide enough to account for the relatively higher confidence level for a Villanova win (see table below). Other than that however, the teams appear to be fairly evenly matched, both have stingy defenses, the difference coming on offense where Villanova holds the clear edge. Both defenses register as elite, but their opponents have tended to look outside for points. Maybe the margins of scoring were wide enough to motivate the team down in scoring to fire away, but another explanation may lie in the opposition. Both teams have loaded up on mid/low majors so far, and many low/mid major teams routinely employ offenses that stress motion offenses that rely on the three point attempt. Tennessee utilizes the inside shot for 74% of their field goal attempts and nearly 56% of their points. The Vols lose over one-in-five of their possessions before shooting, almost half (49.8%) due to steals...

	Projected
	Pace	Prob.
Tennessee	73.0	33.8
Villanova		66.2

The offensive/defensive differentials and pace suggest nearly a 10 point margin of victory (for Villanova). Slowing Villanova's offense down while keeping his Volunteer offense in uptempo mode would be a huge challenge for Tennessee Coach Bruce Pearl. A half-court approach however, would require a skilled point guard who could run the team effectively while directing the attack. Something outside of the Volunteers' comfort zone I suspect, and given the lack of a truly effective point guard, something of a work in progress with the Vols at this point. Both teams will go inside at every opportunity, thereby exposing their low post players to more opportunities for fouls and foul trouble. Both teams routinely win the battle for the boards, for Tennessee offensive rebounding provides second chance opportunities that are vital given their very average shooting efficiency for field goals. Who controls the boards, and more importantly, how many fouls (and on whom they are called) may a key to determining the outcome of the game.

NIT Season Tip-Off -- A Post Pod Look

The Field Sorts Out...
The four NIT pod sites completed their two round elimination games Monday through Wednesday (11/15-11/17), with the four teams that logged 2-0 records in the pod rounds advancing to New York City to settle matters on the floor of Madison Square Garden. The end of pod play does not, however spell the end of the tournament for the 12 teams that will not advance to New York. For those teams, the field has been reorganized, three teams were selected to host a second set of games and the remaining nine teams were assigned to the three pod sites. The redrawn field (Pod hosts listed first, other alphabetized) is:

New York City (NIT Champ)	Conf.		Winston-Salem, NC	Conf.
Tennessee	SEC #2		Wake Forest	ACC #3
UCLA	Pac-10 #4		Belmont	Atl. Sun
Villanova	Big East #1		Marist	MAAC
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA #5		Winthrop	Big South
Washington DC	Conf.		Springfield, MO	Conf.
George Washington	A-10 #7		Missouri State	MVC #6
Boston University	Am. East		Arkansas State	Sun Belt
Hampton	MEAC		Pacific	Big West
Nevada	WAC #8		Pepperdine	WCC

For all but New York City (the Championship bracket), the pod host is the first team listed under the pod location. The first eight teams were seeded by the NIT before the first pod. The original seed is listed for those teams after their conference affiliation. All pods except New York City are "consolation pods", so the rounds will not be single elimination, but rather two games scheduled against two of the other pod members. That explains why every pod has (at least) one pair of teams from the previous pod assignment. Those "paired teams" are not scheduled to play each other. Each team in the tournament, win or lose, is guaranteed four "unique" opponents.

What We Learned From the Pods
1. This is a "real tournament", even if it was seeded...strangely. Though designated a pod host and given a #3 seed in the field (of 16), Wake Forest still had to earn it's ticket to New York City and the Championship Bracket. And that the Demon Deacons could not do, as Virginia Commonwealth beat them by a convincing 21 points, 90-69 on Tuesday (11/17) and swiped the Deacons' ticket to Madison Square Garden. That could not have been fun for the Wake faithful. (Too) Many of the early season invitationals grant their pod hosts a pass to the "Championship Bracket" irrespective of whether they win their pod outright.
2. Nevada is officially rebuilding. The 2010 edition of the Wolfpack is gone and the perennial WAC powerhouse is something of a paper tiger, as the Pacific Tigers, followed by the Pepperdine Waves demonstrated on successive nights in West pod action. Pepperdine, which beat Nevada by a point, 76-75, won seven games (total) in 2010, and is projected to finish last in the West Coast Conference again this season. Nevada will play their consolation games in Washington DC.
3. George Washington will really miss Lasan Kromah. Announced on the eve of pod play, the sophomore guard and All A-10 Rookie Team player is out indefinitely with a sprained left foot. The Colonials dropped a nine point decision to Boston University (76-67), but blew Marist off the floor (79-59) the next night. A long recuperation period by the sophomore scorer is going to force Coach Karl Hobbs to lean on the other returning players (Tony Taylor, Joseph Katuka, Andre Ware, Jabari Edwards) to pick up a larger share of the offense. Projected (preseason) to finish around the middle of the Atlantic-10 Conference, a recuperation that stretches into conference play could really hurt the Colonials' chances to build on the progress last season.
4. Tennessee had a strong pod or really has some work to do. Probably both. The Volunteers dealt themselves Belmont (of the Atlantic Sun Conference) as their first round opponent, and managed a nine point win despite leading by only one, 77-76, with 0:36 left. The Vols scored the last eight points at the line, as the Bruins, who hit 7-22 from beyond the arc up to that point, missed a pair of three point attempts (and a two point attempt), could not rebound those misses and had to fall back on possession fouls to regain the ball. Against their second round opponent, Missouri State of the MVC, Tennessee managed to carry the day by four points. The game was a tug-of-war for the lead though the Vols pushed the bulge out to double digits once -- for some two minutes -- in the first half. The Bears took their last lead, 36-33, about five minutes into the second half, and though they could only hold it for a single possession, they were not, through the end of the game, more than two possessions away from a tie or lead. Maybe Tennessee's Bruce Pearl was distracted with other matters.

The Schedules...
The consolation pods will play out on Monday and Tuesday (11/22 & 11/23) of next week. The Championship Bracket is scheduled for Madison Square Garden. On Wednesday (11/24) the semi-finals will be played at 7:00 pm (Virginia Commonwealth vs Tennessee) and 9:00 pm (UCLA vs Villanova). The finals (and third place game) are scheduled for Friday, 2:00 pm (Third Place) and 5:00 pm (Championship).

What We Anticipate
From a log5 and offensive/defensive efficiencies perspective, it Wake's woes may not be over. And the same could be said for Tennessee. The Springfield Consolation Bracket could well be the strongest of the three consolation brackets, as two experienced West Coast teams tangle with two heartland squads in what might be a Bracket Buster Tournament in November. I will post break downs for each consolation bracket, along with the Championship Bracket later this weekend.

Further Reading...
The Official NIT Tip Off Site
The Consolation Brackets with sites, teams, dates and game times. Home team bolded.