Guest Contributor Ray Floriani: Izod Doubleheader, Penn/Army and Butler/Duke

by Ray Floriani

EAST RUTHERFORD, NJ -- The Izod Center brought a college basketball doubleheader back into the facility on Saturday. A nice mid-major match-up between Penn and Army was followed by the feature game, a rematch of last year's NCAA title game, Duke-Butler.

The Izod Center
East Rutherford, NJ

The scores:

Penn	68	Army	52
Duke	82	Butler	70

The Efficiency:

		Off.
	Poss.	Eff.
Penn	68	100
Army	65	80

The Four Factors:

		FTA
	eFG%	FGA	OR%	TO%
Penn	59	28	31	29
Army	45	10	20	25

The score was tied 28 all, at the half, and from Penn's perspective they were fortunate not to be behind. The Quakers' eFG% was 40% as they were 1 of 10 from three. Army, on the other hand, was 5 of 13 beyond the arc and had a gaudy 54% eFG%. What happened after intermission? Simply put, Penn started hitting shots while tightening up on the defensive end. Army relies a great deal on the three. They entered the game with 42% of their offense coming from that area. Over the final 20 minutes the Cadets still shot respectably from three going 4 of 12.

Unfortunately for Zack Spiker's club, those four treys were half the field goal production as the Cadets actually shot worse (4 of 15 for 27%) from two point range. The final points in the paint, a 28-16 Penn advantage, showed the Quakers were comfortable taking the ball to the basket. Guard Zack Rosen with a sterling 20 point 3 assist afternoon, was especially comfortable taking the ball into the lane. The one thing bothering Penn coach Jerome Allen is turnovers. A recurring problem that inflated to an alarming 29% rate in this contest.

Your VBTN contributor with Butler mascot 'blue'

Duke-Butler:
The Efficiency:

		Off.
	Poss.	Eff.
Butler	71	32
Duke	73	112

The Four Factors:

		FTA
	eFG%	FGA	OR%	TO%
Butler	52	17	32	21
Duke	55	45	28	21

Observations:
The efficiency showed Duke with a decided edge but the Four Factors bear out this was a reasonably close game. A mid second half spurt by Duke keyed the victory.

The entire Blue Devil body of work the final twenty minutes was crucial. In the post game interview Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski said that Brian Zoubek, one of last year's Duke kep performers, visited the team after the game and said how the first 30 minutes seemed like April's championship game pace wise. "It was," coach K said. "When we sped it up and changed the pace it became our advantage."

Duke altered the pace with added defensive pressure, that forced turnovers and got out the Blue Devils out in the open floor. The change in pace to a Duke liking was illustrated as at the half, Butler actually had a 97-87 edge in offensive efficiency. The second half Duke posted an almost off the charts 132 OE. A 32-20 advantage in points in the paint for the game, contributed.

During the decisive run Kyrie Irving (21 points) buried two big threes and Andrew Dawkins (10 points 8 boards) who stole a pass and finished it off with a traditional three point play.

A category Duke did enjoy a noticeable edge was free throw rate. Chalk it up to guard penetration as Irving (6) and Nolan Smith (14) combined for 20 of Duke's 29 free throw attempts. Collectively the two guards shot 19 of 20 from the line with the senior Smith accounting for the one miss.

Butler got a nice lift off the bench from Shawn Vanzant. The senior guard led the Bulldogs with14 points, added 5 boards and simply energized the team during his 28 minutes in relief.

Andrew Smith, Butler's 6-11 sophomore, is just going to get better as he continues to gain experience. For the afternoon Smith had a creditable showing, 10 points with 5 rebounds. He did have trouble finishing a few in traffic. Again that will be remedied as he progresses.

Smith had four offensive boards as Butler had the edge in that category. Not a big surprise as rebounding was a question needing addressing coming into the season for Duke. One of the few questions with this club.

Stevens was also pleased with "contributions from several players." He did note the defense must improve and don't mention moral victory. "This is a loss," he said, "we have to learn from it and move on." Coach K noted that "Butler is a team that will get better as the year goes on and be a tough out in March. They (Butler) did lose a lottery pick (Gordon Hayward)."

Referee Brian Dorsey watches the teams
warm up minutes before the second half

The efficiency leaders respectively were senior Nolan Smith and sophomore guard Andre Dawkins pacing Duke with 18. Shelvin Mack, with 11 points, 6 rebounds and 5 assists had 16 for Butler. In fact Duke had a very ordinary game, for him , out of Kyle Singler. He had an efficiency of 10 largely on a 13 point afternoon , offset by three turnovers, no assists and 1 of 6 shooting from three. The Duke guards more than compensated:

	Efficiency
Smith	18
Dawkins	18
Irving	17

Had to love Irving's effort. Coming home and playing in front of friends and family he did not force things and let the game come to him. Hard to remember he is just a freshman. And will get even better.

Finishing:
Penn is 4-3 and Army is now 4-4. Rosen led all with 20 points and 6-3 senior forward Jeremy Hence paced the Cadets with 15 points (3 of 4 from three).

Duke improves to 8-0 while Butler is now 4-3. Nolan Smith led all scorers with 24 points while Shawn Vanzant, as noted, was Butler's pacesetter with 14 points.

Good to see officiating friend Brain Dorsey working the game. We have worked together many times in basketball and even officiated a NJ state high school soccer tournament game together. Brian has enjoyed great success moving up the college ranks but remains the same humble person and a great friend.

Met David Woods of the Indianapolis Star who wrote the recently released book Underdawgs, which chronicled the March to last year's championship game. I had a copy which he, and the Butler cheer squad, graciously autographed. Woods said the story of Butler's run is great but even remarkable given the past. "About 20 years ago the program was really bad," Woods said. " It was not a good situation at all. To come from where they were to where they are today is an incredible story in itself."

A picture with the Butler cheerleaders

Coaching Carousal Part 2010-03: Trends

Spring Signing Benchmark
The closing of the spring signing period marks the end of the most active phase of the coaching cycle. Between May 20 and the Fall Practice there may be, depending on how badly coaches behave in the off season, between one and nine(?!) additional vacancies.

Like Father, Like Son
Hardly a new trend, but four more sons of D1 head coaches have come into their own programs; two in the Big East alone this off season. Kevin Willard, son of Ralph Willard (Western Kentucky, Pittsburgh, Holy Cross) took his second D1 head coaching job last month when he moved from Iona to Seton Hall. Willard is the second son to follow his father as a Big East head coach. Jason Capel took the Appalachian State job on April 21, following in the footsteps of his father Jeff II (Old Dominion) and brother Jeff III (Virginia Commonwealth, Oklahoma). Chuck Driesell, son of Lefty Driesell (Davidson, Maryland, James Madison, Georgia State) took the head coaching job at the Citadel a week after Jason Capel took the Appalachian State. Davis and Willard join three other sons-of-coaches in the Big East head coaching fraternity. Keno Davis (Providence) followed his father Tom Davis (Boston College) back in 2009. Mike Rice (Robert Morris), the son of Mike Rice Sr. (Duquesne and Youngstown State) who coached D1 ball 9 years before moving into broadcasting. The John Thompson's, father and son, have coached at Georgetown for 33 of the last 39 years. And Bob Huggins, head coach at Cincinnati (pre-Big East) and later at West Virginia, is the son of Charlie Huggins, a longtime High School basketball coach in south central Ohio.

Head Coach to Assistant?
Sprinkled among the news stories and blog-generated speculation about super conferences and big-time TV football paydays are stories of schools, not among the BCS-blessed, making hard choices about D1 collegiate athletic programs. The New York Times speculated in May of 2009 that D1 universities across the country might cut up to 130 sports programs over the next year (2009-10). Since February the University of New Orleans and Centenary College have both reassigned themselves to the NCAA's Division 3 (Centenary voted last August to leave the Summit Conference and drop their status to D3). In the past 6 months Hofstra, University of California-Bakersfield, Seton Hall, Northern Iowa, Tennessee Tech, California State-Northbridge, Duquesne, Delaware State and Northeastern have all eliminated sports programs. I suspect the recent decision of three D1 head coaches to swap their #1 chair for a seat farther down on the bench at higher level schools may well be part of the same trend. Going from the Head Coach of a Division 2 (or Division 3) program to an Assistant Coach at a Division 1 program is a common career pathway for a (prospective) Division 1 Head Coach, especially if the candidate was very ambitious. Voluntarily leaving a head coaching position at a D1 school for an assistant coaching position is rare, and almost always elicits an explanation. Buzz William's 2008 move from New Orleans to the assistant's job at Marquette was accompanied by six months of explanations and a law suit. Ralph Willard drew headlines last summer when he left Holy Cross to rejoin his long-time friend and mentor Rick Pitino at Louisville. The career move received nearly as much press notice as a move to a head coaching job receives. With this off season having three D1 head coaches resign (not fired...) to take assistant jobs elsewhere makes the move more "usual". Columbia's Joe Jones, who left New York City's Ivy representative to join fellow ex-Ivy League Coach Steve Donohue at Boston College (as Associate Head Coach), had improved the Lions' standing in conference, but was stalled at the middle-level, unable to get over the 0.500 mark. Hartford's Dan Leibovitz brought energy to the NEC-based Hawk program and managed to record two winning season (18-16 in both 2008 and 2009) in his four year tenure, but he decided to return to his roots in Philadelphia (where he was an assistant to Temple's John Chaney) to join Jerome Allen's staff (Assistant Coach) at Penn. Leibovitz, whose move allows him to team up yet again with an old classmate, finished his tenure at Hartford with a 57-72 record. Orlando Early invested seven years in the Louisiana-Monroe program, compiling a 60-92 (0.395) overall record, with a single winning season (2008, 18-14). He decided to join Darrin Horn's staff (Assistant Coach) at South Carolina. Andy Katz's 5/25 blog, about Donnie Jones' move from Marshall to Central Florida, makes a similar point -- the move may seem lateral (or backward), but the destination offers better opportunities. UCF has better facilities and a larger resource pool (student body, public funding, bigger Athletic Department budget) to draw from.

In Season Vacancies
I wrote an earlier post that explored the reasons for the in season changes this year. 2010 was not, however, unusual for the number of vacancies created while the teams played their regular season schedules. In 2007 & 2008 about 18% of the D1 teams turned out their head coaches, while in 2009 & 2010 that percentage declined to the 10%-12% range. If the numbers are hardly unusual in 2010, the reasons and locations were. From 2007 through 2009, half of the in season vacancies were created in BCS conferences (the SEC, Big Ten, Big 12 and Pac-10) in regions outside the Northeast. In 2010 all but one vacancy came in the Northeast and in mid-low major Division 1 programs. That two programs in the Ivy League, a conference which historically limited the influence money in their athletic programs, saw coaching changes during the regular season enforces the perception that the entertainment influence is pervasive.

By the Numbers...
From the open of Fall Practice to the last day of the Spring Signing Period, there have been 51 vacancies among Division 1 programs. The cycle is well established -- 65% of the vacancies were created before the National Championship game was played on April 6, with the largest number created at the initiative of the employer...

			%age of
Phase	School	Coach	Vac.
Reg. Season	80.0%	20.0%	9.8%
Before NC	78.6%	21.4%	54.9%
End of Spring Sign.	16.7%	83.3%	35.3%
n = 51

The current cycle follows a well-established trend -- the most "dangerous" period for a D1 coach is before the National Championship game, while the most volatile phases tend to fall between the end of the regular season and the end of the Spring Signing Period. The tournament (especially the Final Four) is a Job Fair for both employers (Athletic Directors and Hiring Consulting firms) and employees (Head & Assistant Coaches and Agents), and most likely exaggerates the effect of the annual phases. The desire to resolve the direction of the program and allow a successor coach time to assemble a squad for the following season would naturally occur during the early off season. The cycle in 2010 is more consistent with the off seasons for 2007 and 2008 -- the most active phases occurred during the post season tournaments (conference and invitationals), rather than during the season or after the Spring Signing Period (usually around May 20). 2009 then, with a single job change during the five or so weeks after the National Championship and before the end of the Spring Signing Period, but six between late May and Fall Practice, was the outlier, a secondary effect I believe of the economic uncertainties of the spring 2009.

Coaching Carousal Part 2010-01: The 11 Week "Off Season"

September 24 to December 03...
From Jim Crews' termination in late September to Dereck Whittenburg's termination in early December, the Coaching Carousal stopped for just over ten weeks this (pre?) season, just long enough to kick off fall practice and get the season underway. Jack Styczynski over at the New York Times' Quad Blog posted a thought piece, "Looking for the Benefit of a Midseason Coaching Change", in the aftermath of Benny Moss' 1/29/2010 termination at NC - Wilmington. Styczynski, while recounting briefly the list of terminated coaches during the season, could find no value in the timing. While his analysis considered the interim coaches' won-loss records and subsequent inability to remove the "interim" tag from each's title, his premise, that these four Athletic Directors acted "too quickly" struck me as very odd. Styczynski frames the window in which the situations at each institution evolved from roughly the beginning of the season to the point of termination, and wonders if waiting another 10 or so weeks would really be that bad. And within that context his arguments persuade...perhaps. I can't speak to the situation at NC-Wilmington, but with respect to DePaul, Penn and Fordham, the question ("to terminate or not to terminate"), was in discussion for at least the two off seasons that preceded the 2009-10 season. The question should be "Why so slow?", rather than "Why so fast?" Why, in the case of Fordham, DePaul and Penn, did the AD drag out a termination process that was clearly in motion the preceding spring? The grievances and shortcomings of Wainwright (DePaul), Miller (Penn) and Whittenburg (Fordham) were publicly discussed and examined in excruciating detail for months (even years) before the beginning of the 2009-2010 season, as each landed on at least one "Hot Seat" list in the preseason.

When Army's AD decided, for reasons never given a extensive public airing (most likely because he acted quickly?), it was time for Coach Jim Crews to go, he notified Crews, conducted a search and hired a replacement inside of 72 hours. Three weeks before fall practice was certainly inconvenient timing, for the team, for the candidate who agreed to take the job (Zach Spiker, one of Steve Donahue's assistant coaches at Cornell) and for the AD who found himself staring into a candidate pool far smaller than he would have had had he waited six months (or acted six months earlier). The Black Knights of the Hudson recorded a 4-10 record in their conference (the Patriot League) and logged a 14-15 record for the season. Disappointing perhaps had that record been accumulated under Crews, but replacing a coach as late in the off season as Army dampens expectations (and they did split on the season with Navy, so all was not lost).

Why the Wait?
The benefit of waiting six or seven monthes to terminate Whittenburg, Miller and Wainwright was most likely that all three would, with the exception of Fordham (see Jio Fontan -- Whittenburg could not hang on to Jio, who left for Southern Cal), hang onto their rosters. Retaining Jared Grasso as the interim coach most likely allowed the Rams to hang on to A10 Rookie of the Year (in the making) Chris Gaston. Would the Rams have held onto both had they replaced Whittenburg in the spring of 2009? Maybe, but Fontan was clearly mulling transfer options during the summer of 2009 and had he bolted after meeting with a summer of 2009 replacement (most likely not Pecora), Gaston, who had not yet started at Fordham, could very possibly asked for his release. It would have been difficult for Fordham to deny that request. Retaining Jared Grasso as interim most likely helped them keep Gaston through the end of the season. Now it is up to Tom Pecora who moved over from Hofstra to take the position on Rose Hill, to persuade Gaston to stay with the Rams. Penn bucked Styczynski's "interim coaches never get the nod" trend when they elevated Jerome Allen to full-time head coaching status. Given the state of the economy in the first and second quarters of 2009, economics may well have played a role in delaying the exits of Miller, Wainwright and Whittenburg.

By the Numbers...
Through April 9, there have been 37 head coaching vacancies among the 348 D1 programs. Given that 33 occurred before the National Championship game was played, the total number of vacancies in this cycle will probably reach 45-to-50 positions, well above last year (36), but well below 2007's all-time high of 60. Typical of the post tournament phase (though admittedly the sample size is very small), vacancies this week were initiated more by coaches (3-to-1) than by Administrators, in contrast to in-season and during the post season, when Administrators initiate the vacancies (25-to-7).

Rumors, Unfinished Business
As of this afternoon, the Rutgers situation continues unresolved, though it appears that for Hill the question has become "When" rather than "If".